Monthly Archives: April 2025

Roundup: The still-ten-percent “pause”

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Day eighteen, and the parties were trying to get their messages out while we were treated to yet another day of market turmoil as Trump “paused” his global tariffs, but actually kept them at ten percent across the board, except for China, for whom he raised them to 125 percent, and then applied the ten percent to Canada and Mexico, but then didn’t, and the other tariffs on autos, steel and aluminum still apply, and it was a headache the whole gods damned day.

Mark Carney was in Calgary, and he proclaimed his desire to make Canada an energy superpower (stop me if you’ve heard this before), but wait—he wants it to be with both clean and conventional energy. Some of the details were mighty similar to what the Conservatives proposed, but I will grant that there was more of an emphasis on working with provinces and First Nations around Projects of National Interest, but again, I suspect their timelines are incredibly optimistic. Carney then headed to Saskatoon for a rally. He’ll start the day in Brampton, and head to Hamilton from there.

NEW: At a campaign rally in Calgary today Liberal leader Mark Carney spoke publically about queer and trans issues for the first time in this campaign, saying that these rights are “fundamental.” #cdnpoli

— Mel Woods (@melwoods.me) 2025-04-09T17:52:15.459Z

Pierre Poilievre was in Sault Ste. Marie, and vowed to crack down on repeat crime with a “three-strikes” law which is a) unconstitutional, and b) failed spectacularly in the States, where it actually increased the murder rate. They also put out a press release stating that they would end “Carney’s crime wave,” which is so stupid that we all lost IQ points reading that. During the same stop, Poilievre also claimed that the industrial carbon price will drive steel production to the US, which simply isn’t true. Poilievre will start the day in Milton, Ontario, and then head to Woolwich, Ontario.

Jagmeet Singh was in Vancouver, where he promised to finish the job of universal pharmacare within four years, and good luck to him on that with both getting provinces to sign on, and to negotiate a national formulary in that timeframe. I suspect this is another job for that Green Lantern Ring that Singh thinks is hiding in the PMO. Singh then headed to Saskatoon in the evening. Singh remains in Saskatoon for the day.

In other campaign news, here is a look at how Poilievre is shifting his attacks against Carney. Here’s a look at how climate change has been taken off the agenda as a front-of-mind issue.

Abso-fucking-lutely

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-10T00:47:25.276Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones attacked Kyiv in the early morning, and one person was trapped in a collapsed house. Ukraine’s military chief says that Russia has launched a new offensive in the country’s northeast. Ukraine’s state railway suffered a major cyber-attack and has only restored about half of its IT services. President Zelenskyy says that their intelligence shows some 155 Chinese citizens fighting for the Russian military.

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Roundup: The magical money tree of tax shelters

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Day seventeen, and while the western leg of the tours rolled along, the announcements were decidedly more tepid after Monday’s double-headers. Mark Carney was in Delta, BC, and announced that his housing plan would favour more homes built with Canadian lumber, hence trying to offset some of the issue with higher American tariffs on softwood. Carney starts the day in Calgary, before heading to Saskatoon.

Pierre Poilievre was in Edmonton, and promised to crack down on tax havens and book $1 billion to the treasury for it—a wildly optimistic number considering that you usually need to spend a fair amount to recover that much because doing the work of cracking down takes a lot of resources. And along the way, he essentially said he’d open the door to small businesses to evade taxes because resources would be directed away from them. This was really just an attempt to take a shot at Carney because Brookfield used Bermuda as a tax haven for certain investments, which Carney could not sufficiently and explicitly denounce when asked about it, for which the Conservatives and NDP pounced. The other notable part of the day for the Conservatives was Poilievre badgering and hectoring reporters to lavish praise on the size of his Edmonton rally, which sounds awfully similar to another guy obsessed with the size of his…crowds. Poilievre starts his day in Sault Ste. Marie, and then heads to Brampton.

Another magical money tree.The Conservatives are really starting to sound like the NDP here…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-08T14:55:29.888Z

Jagmeet Singh was in Vancouver and his home riding in Burnaby, and didn’t make any actual announcements—he just sent out a series of press releases sniping at Liberal candidates who were in the real estate business in the area and Carney himself, for what it’s worth. Singh remains in Vancouver, and heads to Saskatoon later in the day.

In other campaign news, Poilievre’s tone toward Carney is getting a harder edge as he insists that Carney was not a businessman but a “political grifter,” (never mind that Poilievre has also never  been a businessman), and we’re into trading jabs about haircuts and resumes.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones attacked Dnipro and Kharkiv overnight, injuring at least 17 people. Russians also claim to have driven Ukrainian soldiers out of the Kursk region. President Zelenskyy says that two Chinese nationals have been captured fighting alongside Russians in the eastern Donetsk region, and that they have information that there are more.

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Roundup: Double the campaign announcements

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Day sixteen, and suddenly each of the parties was doubling up on their news releases today, each announcing not one but two different policy planks, because apparently, we were a little too comfortable already.

Mark Carney was in Victoria, where the first announcement was about protecting retirement savings through reducing the minimum amounts that need to be withdrawn from an RRIF for a year, as well as a temporary increase of the GIS. Later, but still in Victoria, Carney spoke about conservation efforts by pledging new national parks and marine protected environments, bolstered Indigenous stewardship, and nature-based climate solutions. Carney also insisted that he’s prepared and has a plan to deal with the market chaos that Trump has unleashed. Carney also met with BC premier David Eby to talk about the softwood tariffs that Trump plans on increasing. Carney will start the day in Delta, BC, and head to Calgary later in the day.

Pierre Poilievre was in Terrace, BC, and declared that he will create a single office for resource projects, with one application, and a maximum one-year timeframe for approvals (which raises all kinds of question about provincial jurisdiction, and the complexity of projects). He even listed projects as examples that…already have their approvals but the market hasn’t bought into the projects, which should raise even more questions about whether he has a clue about what he’s talking about, other than “oil project good.” Poilievre later said he would delay the age by which seniors need to withdraw their savings from their RRSPs. Poilievre will start the day in Edmonton, and then head for Sault Ste. Marie later today.

Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto, and used the demise of Hudson’s Bay Company to tout more protections for workers during bankruptcies, and to keep “predatory” foreign private equity funds at bay. Later in the day, he promised that he could build three million homes by 2030, and good luck with that given just how few details their plan contains for such a complex, multi-jurisdictional problem. Singh will be in Vancouver this morning, followed by his home riding in Burnaby (where apparently his seat is under threat, if polls are to be believed).

In other campaign news, the Longest Ballot jackasses have targeted Poilievre’s riding, making his Liberal rival’s job all that much harder. And nominations are now closed, so here is a look at some of the familiar names that will be on ballots.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia continues to claim that Ukraine is targeting its power stations in spite of the “energy ceasefire.” Funerals were held in Kryvyi Rih for those killed in Friday night’s attack. President Zelenskyy confirmed that there are Ukrainian troops in Russia’s Belgorod region.

 

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Roundup: Recovery and rent control

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Day fifteen, and not every campaign was busy today. Mark Carney was quiet in the early part of the day, where he had a call with UK prime minister Keir Starmer, but was in Victoria in the evening, where he started the western leg of his tour by holding a rally. Carney will remain in Victoria in the morning, and head to Richmond, BC, later in the day.

Readout of Carney's call with Starmer. I very much noticed the reference to "reliable partners." #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-06T20:59:36.949Z

Pierre Poilievre was in New Westminster, BC, and he promised funding for 50,000 more addiction recoveries (so I’m not sure how that translates to spaces), and said that “drug dens” (aka safe consumption sites) be forbidden from within metres of a laundry list of places, as though the people consuming on the streets care about that prohibition. Poilievre will start the day in Terrace, BC, and end the day with a rally in Edmonton.

Jagmeet Singh was in Halifax, and promised to use federal spending powers to bring in national rent control, which is 100 percent provincial jurisdiction, which they want to get around by essentially saying he would withhold federal housing money unless they brought it in (and it’s all about “corporate landlords,” but never about private ones being a problem, which many of them are). They also once again tried to trot out Ruth-Ellen Brosseau as a “star” candidate, never mind that it didn’t work the last time, and is unlikely to again this time. Singh plans to be in Toronto today.

*siiiiiiiiiigh* This way of intruding into areas of provincial jurisdiction is going to have all kinds of unintended consequences, guys. And yes, the fact that We The Media are essentially demanding it to happen is also a problem.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-06T17:28:30.325Z

In other campaign news, it’s the cut-off day for nominations today, and some parties are scrambling to get names on ballots. Here’s a look at how Singh has abandoned the message about becoming prime minister in favour of just trying to elect as many NDP MPs as possible, and another look at how much the campaign has been struggling since the beginning.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian troops are pushing into Ukraine’s Sumy region in the northeast.

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Roundup: Trades and red tape

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Day fourteen, and the leaders continued to fan out across the country to sell their messages in the shadow of the Americans facing an economic collapse thanks to their tariffs. Mark Carney was in Oakville, talking about skilled trades—providing training grants of up to $8000 for skilled trades, plus working with provinces to establish more spaces in trades colleges, and expanding labour mobility tax deductions. Carney also talked about the tough days we are facing ahead, thanks to Trump, and notes that he has been there before with post-Brexit Britain.

Pierre Poilievre was in Oosyoos, BC, to promise a reduction of “25 percent of red tape” within two years, which is a weirdly specific number, that doesn’t say much about what kind of regulatory burden is being lifted (but it certainly doesn’t look like it’s going to be cleaning up the tax code, which is one of the biggest drags on business). Poilievre will be in New Westminster, BC, today.

Jagmeet Singh was in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, and promised that everyone would have a family doctor by 2030, which is a) a provincial responsibility, and b) promising provinces a 1 percent top-up on transfer payments to make it happen is incredibly naïve. Today, Singh will be in Halifax and Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, and end the day in Montreal to appear on Tout le monde en parle.

Oh, NDP. As usual this is 100% provincial jurisdiction, and your promising an extra 1% bonus to transfer payments for complying is hopelessly naïve. Provinces have proven themselves unable to be swayed by carrots when it comes to healthcare dollars.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-05T17:10:24.990Z

In other campaign news, here’s a look at how the Conservatives are giving Poilievre’s wife a prominent role in order to try and get him to appeal to more women voters. Here is a contrast of how the Liberals and Conservatives are handling the media on their campaigns.

https://twitter.com/hassinhadi/status/1908286927700209725

This is a a look at how Poilievre might govern, should he win the beauty contest April 28. Straight out of the Trump playbook.When I was trying to assess their industrial strategy, because so little other than tax cuts have been offered, his long, rambling speeches have little policy. Like Trump.

— Armine Yalnizyan (@armineyalnizyan.bsky.social) 2025-04-05T16:07:14.059Z

Ukraine Dispatch

At least three people were injured in an overnight missile attack on Kyiv. As well, three others were injured in an attack on Mykolaiv. President Zelenskyy met with British and French military leaders to talk about a potential multinational peacekeeping force deployed to Ukraine if a ceasefire happens.

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Roundup: Another plan to save the CBC

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Day thirteen, and the campaigns were trying to get back to a message that wasn’t trade war-related, for what that’s worth in the current moment we’re in. Mark Carney was in Montreal, where he promised to protect CBC/Radio-Canada though a more accountable governance structure and more funding directed to local coverage, and to protect it by enshrining its funding in legislation…except that you can’t bind future governments by statute, and yes, the Supreme Court of Canada has said so. He also downplayed Preston Manning’s crybaby separatism comments, and reminded reporters of his western credentials. Carney will be in Oakville and Toronto today.

I should have been clear. This is from Carney's announcement this morning about funding CBC/Radio-Canada.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-04T14:04:04.457Z

Pierre Poilievre was in Trois-Rivières, Quebec, to propose tougher bail conditions and sentencing for intimate partner violence (which is something to tackle! But sentencing is not the only solution). The Conservatives didn’t send out a notice as to where Poilievre would be today.

Jagmeet Singh was in Montreal to pronounce that they would crack down harder on offshore tax evasion, with some digs about Brookfield as though Carney was making all of its decisions (because apparently the NDP need to learn how corporate boards operate). They also promised they would tear up tax treaties with havens like Bermuda…except those treaties are vital for information sharing used to combat tax evasion. Because apparently the NDP really thought through that policy. Singh will be in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador this morning, and then off to Halifax for the evening.

NDP: We're going to cancel tax agreements with havens like Bermuda to stop tax evasion!Reality: Those tax agreements provide information sharing crucial to combating tax evasion.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-04T15:10:14.685Z

In other campaign news, here is what we heard from the Radio-Canada “Five leaders” interviews, and how Poilievre is starting to moderate a few of his positions including on things like the digital services tax.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack on a residential area of Kryvyi Rih killed nineteen people including nine children, and yet they claimed they were targeting “gathering military,” which is obvious disinformation. Germany is funding Eutelsat to provide Ukraine an alternative to Starlink, with the hopes of sending between 5,000 and 10,000 terminals within weeks.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1908205945790107887

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1908247091601711399

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Roundup: Retaliatory tariffs on American non-compliant cars

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Day twelve, meaning we’re about a third of the way through, and so much of the day was all about the fallout of Wednesday’s tariff announcement. Mark Carney was in Ottawa where he had yet another virtual meeting with the premiers before meeting with the media. There, he said that the era of trade where America leads is over is over, that Trump’s actions will rupture the global economy as it has been since the end of World War II, and that while this is a tragedy, it’s the new reality. Canada’s response is a matching 25 percent tariff on vehicles from non-CUSMA-compliant vehicles coming from the United States, but not on auto parts, where the proceeds would go back to the auto workers. Carney will start the day in Montreal, before heading to Woodbridge, Ontario, and then Scarborough.

https://twitter.com/flaviovolpe1/status/1907890689330778611

Pierre Poilievre was in Kingston, where he promised to remove the GST on Canadian-made vehicles (which the NDP initially proposed), and a fund to help keep workers stay on the job in affected industries. It is also noteworthy that Poilievre distanced himself from Danielle Smith and Preston Manning’s crybaby separatism comments, saying that they need to unite the country. Poilievre will be Trois-Rivières, Quebec, today.

We're back to Poilievre just sanewashing Trump.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-03T17:03:07.441Z

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3llwvxlkeo22j

Jagmeet Singh was in Ottawa to propose the creation of Victory Bonds to fund public infrastructure, in addition to reannouncing his previous protectionist plans. Singh will be in Montreal again today.

The NDP have a tense problem here.They haven't launched anything because they are not in government. They are proposing launching these bonds. There is a difference.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-03T13:43:56.546Z

In other campaign news, Carney said that legislation to protect Supply Management was unnecessary (which is true, but also because you can’t bind a future government so you’re just wasting everyone’s time). Poilievre insisted that their willingness to dump candidates (so far) shows that they’re different from the Liberals (which is a specious argument before the cut-off date).

Ukraine Dispatch

Hundreds of Ukrainian troops are allegedly holed up in a monastery as Russian troops try to drive them from Kursk region. President Zelenskyy visited the neighbouring Sumy region yesterday. Ukraine appears to have resolved some of its manpower challenges.

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Roundup: A faux keynote to sanewash Trump

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Day eleven, and the countdown was on for the major tariff announcement from Trump, which he dubbed “Liberation Day” in the most Orwellian sense. Mark Carney was in Ottawa, meeting with his Canada-US advisory council before the announcement, and then the Canada-US Cabinet committee after the announcement, but with more tariffs coming into play later today, the announcement on retaliatory measures is still forthcoming. Carney did say that this latest global tariff imposition will “fundamentally change the global trading system.” And while he didn’t campaign, Carney did, however, have François-Philippe Champagne make a campaign announcement on his behalf in Granby, Quebec, about the agrifood sector, which not only vows to protect Supply Management, but makes pledges around more funding for various agricultural programmes including trying to build more domestic processing capacity. Carney will remain in Ottawa for the morning, and head to Montreal for a Radio-Canada event.

I listen to arguments against retaliatory tariffs, as they do hurt us more than the other side.But, the point is to hurt the other side and get the US tariff reversed. Our ability to withstand pain is greater, but not infinite.So, I'm in favour of smartly targeted retaliatory tariffs.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-04-02T15:45:21.125Z

But some argue against *any* retaliation. Not pro-Trumpers themselves, but people who say "they are big and we are small and we can't possibly do anything we should just submit."This argument I resolutely reject. If not quislings, they are at least cowards. Fight for your country or GTFO.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-04-02T15:48:45.703Z

Pierre Poilievre was in Toronto to give a “keynote speech” to an invited audience meant to resemble a Chamber of Commerce speech on the response to Trump, and it was…middling, because he seems to think that Trump is actually interested in renegotiating the New NAFTA, or that the tariffs are for legitimate reasons rather than the ludicrous belief that they can be used as income to replace taxes that billionaires pay. And he made some particularly odd promises, like using the tax windfall from increased trade to fund the military, or that the Americans actually care about stopping their guns from crossing our border. And a lot of it was falling back on his same economically illiterate beliefs that the Liberals killed the resource extraction sector (which is only operating at record production levels) and that more oil and gas will solve all of our problems (it most assuredly won’t). Poilievre will remain in Kinsgston this morning, and then head to Oshawa for a rally in the evening, and will attend the Radio-Canada event virtually.

Jagmeet Singh was in Winnipeg and made his own pledges to protect workers from the tariffs, which were mostly just reannouncements. Aside from the pledge to meaningfully reform EI (which is far easier said than done—the current government has been working on this for years), he pledged investments in a few sectors, reannounced things like his GST cuts (which disproportionately benefit the wealthy), and he pledged more protectionist measures, which feels like it’s missing the mark for the moment we’re in as a country. Singh will be in Ottawa for the morning, and then head to Montreal later in the day for the Radio-Canada event.

In other campaign news, Conservative spending on Facebook and Instagram ads has fallen sharply while the Liberals have increased theirs.

As for the tariffs, it looks like Canada and Mexico were exempted from this particular round, and that the New NAFTA-compliant exemption remains in place, but the steel and aluminium tariffs are still there, and the auto tariffs come on today in some fashion but they are making those up as they go along, so those remain significant issues overall. But as for how they arrived at their apparently random list of tariffs today, well, it’s even dumber than you could have imagined.

Guess where they got their weird trade deficit math from?

— dan sinker (@dansinker.com) 2025-04-03T00:32:21+00:00

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3llustvcjuc2q

Apropos for World Tariff Day.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-03T00:34:45.942Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack hit an energy substation in Sumy region, as Russia claims that Ukrainian forces’ drone and shelling attacks in Kursk region cut off power to 1500 households, thus claiming each side violated the “energy ceasefire.”

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Roundup: Promising to capitulate to the oil companies

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Day ten, and things felt a bit more on track today now that the Paul Chiang situation didn’t loom over everything. Mark Carney was in Winnipeg, and re-announced his party’s affordability measures, such as the cancellation of the consumer carbon levy (though I’m not sure how losing the rebates after this quarter will help most households with affordability), his tax cut plan (which disproportionately helps the wealthy), and their various home building pledges along with the previously announced expansion of dental care this summer. That said, he also said expanding pharmacare likely wasn’t going to be a priority (but remember that pharmacare done in the dumbest way possible because the NDP insisted, so maybe it’ll give it time to negotiate a better system? But only if the premiers actually want to play ball, mind you, and they were reluctant beforehand. Carney is back in Ottawa today for “meetings” in advance of the tariff announcement this afternoon.

Pierre Poilievre was in Petty Harbour, Newfoundland and Labrador, and announced that he was going to cave to five demands from the oil industry, including repealing the Impact Assessment Act, scrap the emissions cap, the industrial carbon price, guarantee “six-month approvals” for projects (and good luck with that), and increase Indigenous loan guarantees for resource projects. Of course, the justifications he keeps pointing to are things that predated Trudeau and the IAA, and there are a tonne of approved projects on the books that aren’t moving ahead for market-based reasons. He’s selling a fiction about the need for more oil and gas projects which the market has not moved on, and is convinced this is the way to fight Trump. It’s baffling. Poilievre also insisted that the Liberals were going to bring the consumer carbon levy back once the election is over, just like Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole also insisted that the Liberals were going to tax the capital gains on your home. He later made an announcement in PEI about removing the automatic escalator on beer, wine and spirits, which…is a fraction of a cent every year. Honest to Dionysus… Poilievre will be in Toronto this morning, and heads to Kingston for the evening.

Jagmeet Singh was in Edmonton, and promised changes to the Canada Health Act to ensure that American corporations can’t buy Canadian healthcare facilities, and to put stronger controls on provinces who allow cash-for-access services. He later headed to Winnipeg and met with Wab Kinew. Singh remains in Winnipeg today.

In other campaign news, the Greens have qualified to be in the leaders’ debates, but Maxime Bernier and his vanity party have not (as it should be). Here is a comparison of the various carbon pricing (or not) policies as we now appear to be in a race to the bottom based on false premises. Here is an analysis of the various housing promises. And stories of frustration continue to leak out from the Conservative ranks.

Look! Writs—plural!—being signed, and not on the day the election is called!

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-01T14:11:42.752Z

Apropos of everything.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-02T00:39:33.806Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians claim to have captured a new village in eastern Donetsk region. President Zelenskyy is meeting with a small number of countries about contributing troops as part of the security guarantee in the event the conflict does end.

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Roundup: Chiang overshadows the day

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Day nine, and in spite of the big plans that some of the leaders were trying to put forward, the issue of Paul Chiang loomed over everything. Mark Carney was in Vaughan, Ontario, and pitched a very bold plan to stand up a new Build Canada Homes organization, which would see the federal government take charge of building houses, with a goal of reaching 500,000 new homes per year, and using the market power to stand up a pre-fabrication industry that would have the certainty that these orders are coming in. (They also had to quietly change the French name of the proposed organisation after the initial version was grammatically incorrect). He also promised a number of things around development charges and permitting that are not within federal jurisdiction, so questions remain as to how he expects to reach those goals. Carney will be in Winnipeg today.

Pierre Poilievre was in Fredericton, New Brunswick, pitching a national energy corridor, without saying how he plans to actually achieve it over the provinces and First Nations. (Yes, Carney talked about this with the premiers, but there have been no details yet). When asked about the mounting frustration within the campaign, Poilievre avoided answering the question, but defended his platform under the rubric that the Liberals weakened the country. Poilievre will be in St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador this morning, and hold a rally in Borden-Carleton, PEI, in the evening.

Jagmeet Singh was in Victoria, and promoted energy retrofits that would create “good union jobs,” which continues to feel hopelessly behind the curve. We also saw Singh’s messaging strategy start to shift as well, insisting that electing more NDP MPs mean more people fighting for the “little guy” in negotiations around the future of the country and yeah, I’m not sure that’s not quite how it works. Singh remains in Edmonton today.

In other campaign news, here’s a comparison of how the party leaders are each dealing with the Trump threats, and how that is reflected in their policies. On the Paul Chiang question, Carney said that he spoke with Chiang and that he still has his confidence, which raises big questions about Carney’s political judgment. Chiang posted that he had resigned as candidate around midnight, which takes the issue off the table, but leaves the questions around Carney’s judgment hanging in the air.

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy says that Russia has committed over 183,000 war crimes in Ukraine since the start of their invasion, and that they need to be punished for it.

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