Roundup: Quashing a petition, neutering the carbon price

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The Alberta Court of King’s Bench ruled yesterday that the separatist petition did not engage the duty to consult with First Nations, given that it directly affects their interests, and it is effectively quashed, before the signatures were validated. It’s big news, and this could or should have been the off-ramp from the referendum that Alberta premier Danielle Smith could use to keep the situation from spiralling. But that’s not what’s happening.

This basically kills 301,000-signature petition separatists delivered to Elections AB to force referendum on independence.Premier Smith could still call referendum as gov't act, like separatist groups want her to. But lack of Indigenous consultation would still be problem. bsky.app/profile/mark…

— Jason Markusoff (@markusoff.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T20:09:36.464Z

Smith has instead declared that this decision is “anti-democratic” (which it absolutely is not, and this is populist rot), and that she will appeal it, because she wants this referendum to happen, either under the bullshit justification of a “relief valve” (which never works—it just makes things worse), or to get leverage from the federal government, not that it’s good leverage because it’s just driving away investment from the province because nobody wants to put money into a separatism situation where the uncertainty cranks up to eleven. But this will also mean that the separatists who control Smith are going to demand she just do a government-initiated referendum, which she has absolutely no democratic legitimacy to do, and which also can’t get around the duty to consult. After all, it’s treaty land, and the treaties are with the Crown, not the province of Alberta, which was not even in existence when those treaties were signed. Nevertheless, Smith has proven she is a separatist, in spite of her protestations, and this is

The only logical reason for Danielle Smith to react like this would be if she were a separatist.Therefore, either Danielle Smith is insane, or she is a separatist.

— Emmett Macfarlane 🇨🇦 (@emmettmacfarlane.com) 2026-05-13T21:58:17.584Z

Entirely predictable.This was the endgame: give the appearance of collecting signatures. Whether or not you meet the threshold (legally) matters little if they'll never be counted.Then pressure the premier to call the vote.Will the premier call the big bluff?

— Jared Wesley (@jaredwesley.ca) 2026-05-14T02:49:22.510Z

Meanwhile, word is out that the pipeline agreement will be signed with Alberta on Friday, and it rests on a significantly reduced industrial carbon price, and if Alberta is getting a special deal, well, that’s going to become the floor for the rest of the country because the whole reason the national price is constitutional, per the Supreme Court of Canada, is to ensure uniformity so that provinces can’t undercut one another on a race to the bottom. And to add to that, Carney’s rationale for cutting the consumer carbon levy was that they could make the industrial price more effective, and now he’s gutting that. And what will he get for this capitulation to Alberta? Nothing. It won’t appease the separatists, because they thrive on invented grievances and conspiracy theories. We’re going to blow up our environmental plans, build a pipeline to the coast on diminishing returns once the situation in Iran is cleared up and the world returns to a supply glut position, and the planet will burn. It’s a wonder that Liberals can look themselves in the mirror.

No lies detected.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-13T15:25:58.917Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-13T19:08:01.569Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia hit Kyiv with a massive drone and missile barrage early this morning, killing at least one and injuring at least sixteen others. This followed a daytime drone attack that struck close to the borders of NATO countries, killing six in the process. Ukraine has resumed targeting Russian oil and gas facilities.

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Roundup: Concerning nomination irregularities

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Liberal MP and provincial Liberal leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith has formally filed an appeal over the results of Saturday’s nomination vote in Scarborough Southwest, listing a number of irregularities that included there being more votes in the ballot box than the number of people who registered to vote—34 added votes, when he lost by a mere 19 votes. There were also accusations that a suspicious number of people arrived to vote who “just lost their drivers’ licence” or “just moved to the riding,” and even more suspicious allegations of those who were on speakerphone or video calls in the voting booth, being directed how to vote.

The party’s interim leader had already dismissed this as Erskine-Smith being a sore loser, but there were scrutineers at the event, who are providing affidavits, who pointed to these irregularities, and they are people who have done election monitoring abroad, so we should be fairly confident in their observations. And even more to the point, Erskine-Smith has effectively removed himself from the race and wants an investigation for the sake of an investigation, because these are serious allegations. There have been operatives from both Liberals and Conservatives over on social media saying these kinds of tactics are endemic, but unfortunately most are pointing to the fact that the party allows temporary residents to vote, meaning that again, there is scapegoating happening (and to be clear, when Erskine-Smith says that there were temporary residents voting, his primary complaint was that they appeared to have no idea why they were there, which is not the same as a temporary resident who got involved in the riding association or campaign. There are problems with how these contests are run, but I’m also not certain that putting them under the jurisdiction of Elections Canada or the provincial election agency is necessarily the answer given how much of an expansion of their mandate and capacity would need to be, to the point that it would be unwieldy.

As for Erskine-Smith’s future, he has confirmed that he is resigning his federal seat regardless by the time the Commons rises for the summer. After that, he’s not sure. He lost this nomination, and it’s clear that there is a segment of the establishment within the Ontario Liberal Party that is going to resist him and his plans to make changes to how things are run, so it may not be worth his time and energy if this is how things will play out. It would be a loss for the provincial party, which needs a good kick in the ass, and he might be the best placed to do it, but if the party establishment is going to pull out all the stops to prevent him from getting that far, is there a point? (Meanwhile, Doug Ford will chortle and be premier for ever).

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched over 200 drones early Tuesday, killing at least six people in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Zelenskyy is facing a new challenge now that his former chief of staff has been charged with money laundering.

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Roundup: The separatists continue their takeover

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Things in Alberta continue to go poorly for people who care about things like democracy and accountability, while separatist leaders are encouraging their followers to all take out UCP memberships so that they can nominate separatist candidates for the party in advance of the next election, so that they can further push Danielle Smith to ensure that they get their referendum, and everything they want to go with it. The party is de facto separatist already, as they control the bulk of the UCP grassroots mechanism, and this would just be completing the takeover provided that no centrist normies also take out memberships to stop them. That is, if they consider the UCP actually worth salvaging.

"I never thought leopards would eat MY face," sobs politician, who encouraged leopards to keep eating faces and hold province-wide vote on face-eating

— Mel Woods (@melwoods.me) 2026-05-11T16:28:13.006Z

The fact that when he created the party, Jason Kenney didn’t provide for any adequate failsafe mechanisms to prevent hostile takeovers is not unsurprising, considering how he crowed about how this would be a “grassroots party,” but then he chased out the centrist normies who would have provided a check on the absolute loons that came to dominate the membership. Of course, Kenney thought that he could control these face-eating leopards, while they noticed that this face was right there, so they ate it. And now Smith continues to believe that she too can control these leopards, even though they’ve fully backed her into a corner and she is doing their bidding rather than the other way around, and it’s only a matter of time before her face is fully eaten as well, while the province goes to absolute shit because she was too self-interested to do the right thing at any point in time.

Meanwhile, as the voter list leak scandal rolls along, it sounds like the UCP staffer that attended the Centurion Project webinar was the caucus executive director (which is an odd title), but she didn’t pass along any information to Smith’s office about the fact that they doxxed Jason Kenney and Rachel Notley as part of the demonstration. That’s kind of embarrassing for Smith, given that she chastised Naheed Nenshi for not informing her about what happened, while her own staffer was there, watched what went down, and thought it was a-okay and not worthy of reporting. That’s not good.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-11T13:08:04.717Z

Ukraine Dispatch

As attacks resumed on Ukraine, president Zelenskyy noted that Russia has no intention of ending the war. Ukraine has is making drone deals with some twenty countries, including Canada.

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Roundup: Mixed messages about deeper integration

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Late last week, prime minister Mark Carney was at the Global Progress Action Summit in Toronto, and gave a speech that seems to be a bit of a Rorschach test about how you feel about him and the job he’s doing. While I believe he’s correct in saying that the loss of control people feel with affordability and the rise of digital asbestos leads to a “politics of grievance,” I am less convinced the same is true for immigration, and that it has proven a reliable scapegoat by everyone, Carney included, which is absolutely dangerous—especially when he uses phrases like “taking back control.” He also says that the current moment has been “seized by politicians who seek to destroy and dismantle and progressives must answer by building,” but he has been eroding and quietly dismantling the actual progressive programmes brought in by his predecessor. The fact that he is calling himself a “progressive” is stretching the definition to its breaking point.

Amidst this, there was another statement that raises even more eyebrows, which is that “Like Mexico, Canada remains open to deeper integration, including options for fortress North America in (certain) sectors. And to be clear, those offers are on the table.” Deeper integration? Fortress North America? So, after all of the talk about how being solely dependent on the US as a single trading partner has been a strategic weakness and that we need to diversify so that we have options and can’t be held hostage, we want to integrate even more closely in strategic sectors with the same country that has been trying to hold us hostage, threatening our sovereignty, and which has taken to bullying us because they think they can get away with it without consequence? I mean, I get that we cannot fully decouple from the US because of geography (and even Taiwan trades mostly with China, because of geography), but this message seems at odds with everything happening, and it’s really hard to see how he can promise this without some pretty heavy caveats up front, and I’m not exactly seeing anything that inspires me with confidence.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-10T23:08:01.480Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia violated the ceasefire by making drone strikes on the front lines, and Ukraine launched a few drones in response. Putin claims the war will be winding down soon, but said they will be victorious, but are even further away from their aims, so we’ll see. Here is a look into the dispute between Ukraine and Israel over shipments of stolen grain, and why Israel is uncomfortably close to Russia.

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Roundup: Closer to a deal with Danielle Smith

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Prime minister Mark Carney met with Alberta premier Danielle Smith Friday morning in Ottawa, and by all accounts, they made progress on finalising the terms of the MOU that would see a west coast pipeline built, with Smith saying that their final sticking point is the industrial carbon price but she expects they will get to a “win-win” deal. I don’t actually believe it will be win-win because every deal so far has been an abject capitulation where Alberta gets to flout the rules, either with longer timelines than everyone else, or a weaker effective carbon price (because the province keeps instituting new credits that lower the price). Smith also keeps saying that this deal will help “quell separatism,” which is also bullshit because they don’t actually care policy (which you’ll see in a moment), and the fact that she is encouraging them is not exactly doing anything to quell the movement—quite the opposite, in fact. Everything she has done has encouraged them.

And then by mid-afternoon, the government released their consultation documents for their planned “streamlining” of environmental assessments, which pretty much involves gutting the systems worse than Stephen Harper did, puts unrealistic timelines on consultations (particularly for Indigenous communities which lack the resources to do the work in an expedited manner), and gives a whole lot of power to individual ministers to approve projects with fewer safeguards, which is ripe for abuse and corruption. None of this is good or positive, in spite of the whinging of certain industry executives because they simply don’t want to put in the work. Everything just feels like we’re going backward, and we’re back to “pollution is fine because we’re in a trade war,” as if there aren’t long-term costs and consequences.

Meanwhile, Richard Warnica of the Star went to Alberta and spent time with the separatists, and it’s a swamp of conspiracy theories and fabrications (which he performatively fact-checked a bunch of, and lo, it’s all false. All of it). It’s an absolutely disturbing read, but it also skirts some of the underlying issues—that this is a movement that is steeped in white and Christian nationalism (and these people were deliberately marginalised back in the seventies and eighties by the Lougheed and Getty governments), that has festered in a poisoned information ecosystem and a political ecosystem that has relied on scapegoating Ottawa for the past five decades rather than dealing with the reality of their situation (they’re price-takers for oil, and the fact that they’re a virtual one-party state has invited all manner of corruption in their system). So no, any regulatory changes that Mark Carney might push through won’t mollify them. Another pipeline will make no difference—the last one didn’t, and the province absolutely reneged on the “grand bargain” it was supposed to represent. This is a quasi-cult whose brains have rotted on social media and Fox News, and simply giving them everything they say they want won’t actually solve any problems. It will likely just make things even worse.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-08T19:08:04.965Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A three-day ceasefire and 1000 prisoner exchange has apparently been agreed to, while Russia plans a scaled-back Victory Day parade (because they have no tanks left and they are paranoid Ukraine will attack). Ukraine is running short of air defence missiles after the massive assault over the winter.

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Roundup: Preparing to gut environmental laws

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The federal government is openly musing about changes to the Impact Assessment Act and the Fisheries Act in order to speed up project approvals, which sounds like it could be a dubious proposition. Federal Sources™ still insist that they will need Indigenous consultations and “robust” environmental assessments for projects, but if they keep “streamlining” these processes, they’re not robust. And then you just get more litigation. They don’t seem to learn this lesson.

The Conservatives, meanwhile, continue to demand that all environmental laws be repealed as “anti-development,” and continue to propagate falsehoods about projects that didn’t move ahead for reasons that have nothing to do with the assessment regime. They seem to have no concept of the fact that there are other factors at play, whether it’s the crash in oil prices in 2014, or the fact that there were no customers willing to sign long-term contracts that would make these projects viable enough to pursue.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2052386968798118276

And then there are the oil companies themselves, who continue to try and flex their influence in order to scrap environmental laws. While whinging that any carbon pricing makes them uncompetitive (blatantly untrue given the credits in the system), Canadian Natural announced yesterday that they are moving ahead with two steam-driven oilsands projects, but still holding off on expanding one of their mines. Looks like they can still operate within the regulatory environment, even while grousing about it. These companies are not fragile babies who are one look askance away from insolvency, and government needs to stop treating them as though they were (while the Conservatives really need to stop credulously believing everything that these companies say).

Ukraine Dispatch

Ahead of its ceasefire, Russia fired dozens of more drones into Ukraine, hitting a kindergarten in Sumy, claiming Ukraine violated their own ceasefire first. President Zelenskyy has warned that if Russia continues to violate the ceasefire, then Ukraine will carry on with its long-range strikes.

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QP: Taunts about a Conservative-Liberal merger

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The PM was meeting with Princess Margriet of the Netherlands, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent from QP yet again. That left Carol Anstey to lead off, going full Karen, as she listed the things she wanted to speak to the manager about, like gas prices and the gun buyback. Steven MacKinnon got up to say he still hasn’t received a list from the Conservatives on things they would cut. Anstey cited consultants and the gun buyback as cuts, And again demanded gas taxes be cut. This time Wayne Long got up to deploy his line about being “laser-focused.” The very masculine Jacob Mantle got up to quote the CEO of Cenovus for claiming that carbon prices have driven projects out of Canada. Tim Hodgson said that he should listen to the CEO of Shell, who praised developments in Canada. Hodgson demanded a pipeline today, and Hodgson listed those which got approved, along with other projects. Gabriel Hardy quoted a Fraser Institute study on youth unemployment, to which Joël Lightbound pointed to the training funds for skilled trades in the spring economic update. Hardy then groused that the Major Project Office has not approved any project before bellyaching about taxes, and jammed in a reference to the “national credit card.” MacKinnon repeated the points about skilled trades, and noted Conservative opposition to projects like Alto.

Christine Normandin got up to raise the story about the government fast-Tracking more oil projects, and wondered how any environmentalists could be left in that party. Julie Dabrusin pointed to their methane regulations and insisted the government was showing leadership. Normandin taunted that the Conservatives must be itching to cross the floor as a result of the Liberal love for oil, to which Dabrusin wanted to assure the House that they were putting in the work on the environment. Mario Simard took over to continue the taunts about the environment, and this time MacKinnon got up to say that major energy projects can transform an economy, which included conventional energy. 

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Roundup: Taking what advice on appointments?

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Prime minister Mark Carney once again said on Wednesday that Senate appointments will be made “in due course,” which doesn’t help when nearly ten percent of the Chamber’s seats are vacant or will be before summer is out, but for the first time, he indicated that he would be preserving the independent appointment committees. Sort of. (Currently only the federal members of these committees remain in place, and those for Nova Scotia, but none of the other provinces). “I will take into account the advice of the independent advisory committee that was established by my predecessor,” was what Carney said.

The problem is that’s not actually saying anything. Taking advice into account? Either these committees will be providing short-lists for appointments that Carney will choose from, or they won’t be. That was the point—they took the applications (which was always a mistake—they should have been doing the searching for worthwhile nominees to tap on the shoulder), vetted them, and honed them down to the short-lists, which Trudeau would then choose from, because he remains constitutionally responsible for those appointments. But what “advice” are they supposed to be offering if not a short-list of candidates? Will he look at their list and then decide to choose one of his friends from another hedge fund or big bank? Will he give them a list to do due diligence on? Maybe. None of this is clear, and it looks like he either doesn’t understand this responsibility that is part of his office, or he doesn’t care, and I’m not sure which is worse at this point when he’s been in office for a year now.

Meanwhile, Carney also said that he’s waiting on the joint parliamentary committee report before coming to any decision on the MAiD expansion for irremediable mental health issues, but it cannot be understated that said committee has been an absolute sham process. The two co-chairs are hostile to MAiD and have stacked the witnesses to be overwhelmingly against it, and have sidelined groups like major national psychological and psychiatric organisations who might actually argue that they can provide adequate safeguards. This is just going to result in more Charter litigation, and so many people will continue to suffer needlessly because a bunch of MPs and senators were too squeamish to actually listen to evidence that they didn’t want to hear.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-06T19:08:02.023Z

Ukraine Dispatch

In spite of Ukraine giving Russia an early start to their Victory Day ceasefire, Russia attacked several cities in eastern Ukraine, killing at least 27 people. The new Hungarian government returned to Ukraine the confiscated $82 million USD in cash and gold that was seized while transiting the country.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/2051983745297617183

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QP: Justin Trudeau with a better LinkedIn account?

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The PM was off to Mirabel for an aerospace announcement, while back in the House of Commons, Pierre Poilievre was absent, leaving it to Sandra Cobena to lead off, complaining about the deficit as a way to demand the government cut all gas taxes. Wayne Long got up to recite the growth rates and the fact that wages are outpacing inflation. Cobena listed supposed scandals, before demanding the gas tax cut again. Steven MacKinnon got up to demand a list of programmes the Conservatives want got cut which they consider “inflationary spending.” Andrew Lawton took over to list more examples of supposed waste, and MacKinnon congratulated him on the number of empty slogans in a single question. Lawton retorted on the record of hot air from a transport minister, and tried the same again with some emphasis on their mocking the space launch facility lease. David McGuinty took this one, and he praised sovereign space launch capabilities. Dominique Vien took over in French to raise the issue of costs of food on the prime minister’s plane, and McGuinty turned this around that when talking about planes, the prime minister was in Mirabel to announce the largest aerospace order in Canadian history. Vien demanded gas taxes cuts, to which Joël Lightbound listed tax cuts they have already made, along with other benefit programmes, and the trade surplus recorded in March.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she demanded a wage subsidy for firms affected by the new U.S. tariffs, and MacKinnon reminded her of the supports they announced this week before patting himself on the back for the record airplane order again. Normandin was not satisfied, and again demanded a wage subsidy, and MacKinnon repeated the same response, and added that the Bloc should have offered congratulations for the order. Gabriel Ste-Marie took over to ask the same again, and Lightbound repeated that they are always there to support workers.

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Roundup: The new GG, Louise Arbour

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Yesterday morning, at the National Gallery, prime minister Mark Carney announced that the King had approved of his choice of Louise Arbour to be the next Governor General. Arbour is a former Supreme Court of Canada justice, but has had a long and varied career both in Canada and internationally. Highlights include working with the Law Reform Commission, associate dean at Osgood Hall law school, appointment to the Ontario Superior Court and Court of Appeal, war crimes prosecutor at the Hague, prosecuting Rwanda and Yugoslavian war criminals, and secured the first genocide conviction since 1948. She was then appointed to the Supreme Court of Canada, and after a few years, left that post to become the UN Human Rights Commissioner for a term, where she was attacked for calling out Israel’s actions during the war with Lebanon in 2008, even though she also criticised Palestinian militants’ rocket attacks against civilians. (She has also been portrayed on film by Wendy Crewson).

In the time since, she has served in a number of other capacities including working on several reports for the federal government, most recently around the transformation of military justice, particularly as it relates to sexual assault. At 79, she is the oldest appointee to the office in Canadian history, however that’s not necessarily a bad thing—we have had a spate of appointing Governors General who are too young, leaving them with a big question mark of what to do when their term ends when they should fade quietly into retirement. (Seriously—Ed Schreyer was made GG in his thirties, and he tried to run for office afterward, which is very bad form).

Most of the grumbling that did come from this appointment seemed to come from the fact that she is from Quebec and not from out west (even though by tradition, this was to be a francophone appointment), though I’m not sure how many reasonably high-profile Franco-Albertans/Saskatchewanians/British Columbians that had the right combination of experience and other factors there are out there. Regardless, this could have been something that a properly constituted vice-regal appointment committee might have tried to address, but we have no idea what kind of search mechanism was used to come up with this appointment, so that kind of black box doesn’t help in trying to understand Carney’s thinking here.

Starting with Massey, the birthplaces of governors general:Toronto, OntMontreal, QueLacombe, NWT (now Alberta)Saint-Anicet, QueBeausejour, ManPrud'homme, SaskSaskatoon, SaskMemramcook, NBVictoria, Hong KongPort-au-Price, Haiti Sudbury, OntMontreal, QueFort Severeight, QueMontreal, Que

— Aaron Wherry (@aaronwherry.bsky.social) 2026-05-05T21:45:00.042Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Ahead of Russia’s ceasefire, they made a glide bomb attack on Kramatorsk, Zaporizhzhia and Chernihiv, killing at least 17 civilians and wounding 45 others. There was also an attack on Dnipro that killed four.

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