Roundup: The tariffs are dead, long live the tariffs

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Yesterday, the US Supreme Court struck down Trump’s IEEPA tariffs in a 6-3 decision, because tariffs are taxes and taxes need to come from Congress. These were the so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, the fentanyl tariffs, and the “Liberation Day” tariffs, but not the Section 232 sectoral tariffs on things like steel and aluminium and autos. This means that the effect on Canada is very minimal because for those IEEPA tariffs, we had the New NAFTA exemptions on something like 85 percent of tariffed goods. (Five Things to know about this ruling here, and the list of remaining tariffs on Canada here).

Almost immediately, Trump implemented new global ten percent tariffs under a different set of powers, meaning that this whole process gets to start over again with a new legal challenge, but these powers have a 150-day expiry date, so how does that even work? Meanwhile, companies who paid those IEEPA tariffs can apparently apply for refunds, but I have a suspicion they will never see that money, because Trump will drag it out, his courts are corrupt, and well, the money will have disappeared into some Trump lackey’s accounts, because the graft is real.

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3mfdo7xcbw227

Per this EO, the US really needs:-metals-energy-fertilizers-passenger vehicles-anything subject to 232 tariffs-anything under CUSMA.Amazing. Keep it up.

— Jennifer Robson 🇨🇦 (@jrobson.bsky.social) 2026-02-21T03:34:23.495Z

What problem is Trump's new global 10% tariff meant to solve?If it's about leverage, ask: How much leverage do you get from a tariff that disappears in 150 days?If it's onshoring: Who builds new factories based on tariff that disappear before the factory is built?It's a tax. That's all it is.

— Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) 2026-02-20T20:00:44.062Z

Meanwhile, this has largely served as vindication for the fact that we didn’t rush to get a deal with Trump over tariffs, because there was no deal to be had, and because those tariffs were illegal. Why come up with a deal over something that’s illegal and immoral? Why do what Keir Starmer did when capitulation just emboldens a bully?

Statement from Dominic LeBlanc:

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-20T16:06:42.548Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-20T23:56:01.759Z

Ukraine Dispatch

As the war enters into its fifth year, here is a look at some of the displaced civilians from the war who has lost everything. Europe’s five biggest defence powers are launching a project to develop and build low-cost air defences that can be put into production within a year.

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Roundup: Security theatre, extortion edition

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It was a coordinated photo-op day, as both prime minister Mark Carney and his finance minister, François-Philippe Champagne, had events in different parts of the country to each proclaim measures that the government is taking to attack the rash of extortion crimes, happening in predominantly desi communities. Champagne was in Mississauga to proclaim that they were going to “follow the money” with these extortionists, and just have FINTRAC to do the work they’re already doing. Which is great, but it bears reminding that the RCMP’s federal policing role, which involves illicit financing and organised crime, is woefully underfunded, under-resourced, and lacking in specialised personnel, and this same government has refused to do the right thing and break up the RCMP so that it can stand up a proper, competent federal policing agency. Oh, and they dragged their feet for years on the promised financial crimes agency, so that’s also on them.

Meanwhile, Carney was in Surrey to have a photo op with police in the area, and he touted their bills to do things like strengthen bail laws, which won’t actually do that because the problem is provincial resourcing of courts, not the Criminal Code. All these bills are doing is setting the government up for failure, because as soon as someone reoffenders while on bail under these revised laws, the Conservatives will point at them and say “Look, your plan isn’t working.” The other thing Carney touted was the lawful access provisions in Bill C-2, claiming police really need these powers, but no, you do not give police incredibly invasive powers that they can start going on fishing expeditions with. The Supreme Court has twice ruled lawful access to be unconstitutional, and I wish this government could get that through their heads. After all, they opposed lawful access for 15 years until suddenly deciding it was the cat’s ass last spring.

During his speech in Surrey this morning, Carney talked about moving ahead on #LawfulAccess. As a reminder, Lawful Access has *twice* been ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court of Canada.I have some concerns about what they plan to do about private messaging services here.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-19T19:48:12.349Z

Last week, @privacylawyer.ca and I talked about these Lawful Access provisions on my YouTube channel:

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-19T19:48:12.350Z

Meanwhile, the Conservatives are insisting that none of these measures will work, and that they need to repeal previous bail and sentencing laws because that’ll do the trick. Except it won’t, because those laws don’t do the things the Conservatives claim they do, and this is just one more bit of cheap theatre that has Canadians’ Charter rights at stake, and they don’t seem to have any conscience about it. And frankly, Conservative MP Frank Caputo, a former Crown prosecutor, knows better than this, and if he doesn’t, then he should have his law licence revoked for gross incompetence.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-19T22:27:02.667Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian attacks on Ukraine’s Black Sea ports have reduced their capacity to ship agricultural and mineral exports. Top intelligence chiefs in Europe say that the US is unlikely to broker a peace deal with Russia. (No kidding!)

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Roundup: Jeneroux crosses over

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Prime minister Mark Carney got one step closer to a majority parliament yesterday as Conservative MP Matt Jeneroux formally crossed the floor, weeks after he said he would resign after floor-crossing discussions happened, and there have been rumours of threats. There is some irony in this development—Pierre Poilievre insisted that Jeneroux not resign immediately, but that it not become official until sometime in the spring, and Jeneroux simply absented himself from the Commons and from votes, and because he had not formally resigned as he might have at the time, it meant he still had a seat to cross the floor with. Oops. Jeneroux says that what changed his mind was Carney’s speech in Davos, and also made mention of a “national unity crisis,” and that he couldn’t sit on the sidelines. So that’s something. Also, Carney has bestowed upon him the title of “special advisor on economic and security partnerships,” but apparently this is not paid or a retitled parliamentary secretary position like Chrystia Freeland’s special advisor role was before she resigned.

Well. I guess Jeneroux has reconsidered his retirement. That statement:

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-18T15:33:27.661Z

JENEROUX: "After further reflection with my family, and conversations with colleagues and constituents, I will be continuing to serve in Parliament — and I will be working with PM Carney as a part of his new government to help build our country's strength as we face the challenges ahead."

— Scott Robertson (@sarobertson.bsky.social) 2026-02-18T15:48:31.398Z

This, naturally, led to the usual bouts of hand-wringing and accusations of betrayal from the Conservatives, and the usual nonsense lines that Canadians had somehow voted against a majority parliament (not government—government is government, regardless if they have a majority of seats or not in the legislature), because that simply doesn’t happen. Canadians vote for a single representative, and that’s it. They don’t vote for the configuration of the Chamber, and they because they vote for the individual, that individual also gets to make the choice of whether or not to stay in the party that they were elected with, because that choice is sacrosanct in our system, no matter what anyone tells you.

It's going well.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-18T16:48:36.623Z

And the reactions? Well, former MP Rick Perkins tweeted that MPs should live in the province and community they represent, but well, that would disqualify his party’s deputy leader Tim Uppal (who made a song and dance about living in Ottawa and not Edmonton and declared he would not move back there if elected), and yes, Poilievre himself, but I am willing to give that one latitude because as opposition leader, he lives in Stornoway. But still. Perkins quickly deleted that tweet. Another unnamed former MP and two other sources in the Conservative party each told the Hill Times that ““Pierre Poilievre has become the Justin Trudeau of the Conservative Party,” which is absolutely hilarious.

Has anyone told Tim Uppal about this rule?

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-18T17:22:45.316Z

Matt Jeneroux leaves Conservative party after being too intimidated by Poilievre's workout regime

— The Beaverton (@thebeaverton.com) 2026-02-18T18:37:31.796Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-18T14:25:04.438Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine has been able to reduce some electricity imports as the weather improves. The former head of the military is talking more about his rift with Zelenskyy.

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Roundup: The tedious nonsense around food price inflation

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The inflation numbers were out yesterday, which meant that it was time once again for Pierre Poilievre to mislead everybody with a headline number that doesn’t say what he thinks it does, and frankly, The Canadian Press was not helping. Food inflation was not actually 7.3 percent. Not really. Grocery prices are 4.8 percent, but because of last year’s stupid “GST holiday,” the price index for food from restaurants spiked in comparison, so there was a 12.1 percent year-over-year hike in that index, which completely skewed the overall food index. (Incidentally, there’s a reason why the Bank of Canada generally strips out food and energy prices from their “core” measures, because they are volatile and the Canadian government has little influence over them).

Poilievre, however, took that 7.3 percent figure, and called a press conference and published an open letter about the “Liberal Hunger Crisis,” and he is begging the prime minister to do something about it. That something, of course, is to gut environmental policies by destroying industrial carbon pricing, clean fuel regulations, and plastic regulations, each of which has virtually fuck all to do with the price of food (seriously, their impact works out to about statistically zero), but has everything to do with his crusade against any and all environmental regulations, because he believes they’re killing investment. (Just wait until he hears what contaminated groundwater and poisoned waterways does for investment. And votes). But this act where Poilievre insists he’s “trying to help” is just tedious. He’s not helping. He’s lying about the causes (which he should be able to read), and we went through this same song and dance with the consumer carbon levy, and when Carney killed it, prices didn’t change. Just stop.

This is such tedious bullshit.The 7.3% figure is driven by food at restaurants, because a year ago, there was the "GST holiday" and a year-over-year price comparison from that is skewed. Food at stores actually moderated last month.Also, Carney doesn't control Brazil's climate for coffee beans. 1/

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-17T19:59:39.814Z

And the worst part of this is that when Question Period is back on next week, Poilievre will keep up this whole act, and he’ll beg and plead for the government to do something, and will the government point out any of the facts in the StatsCan report? Will they even bother to correct that the index on food from stores was actually down last month? Nope. They will instead pat themselves on the back for their enhanced/badly rebranded GST credit, and then talk about the school food programme, and the Canada Child Benefit, and maybe dental care, or OAS for seniors, but they won’t put any gods damned facts on the table and counter any of the lies Poilievre tells to justify his nonsense. Because that’s how they insist on rolling.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-17T15:08:04.114Z

In case you missed it:

  • My Xtra column on the federal NDP leadership race and the particular crossroads that the party finds itself at.
  • My latest for National Magazine on Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision, upholding Newfoundland & Labrador’s COVID restrictions.
  • My weekend column on the government’s political cowardice in refusing to actually do something about the RCMP (like breaking it up) when the Force is broken.
  • My column on the apparent deal struck between the government and Conservatives on getting the budget bill passed, and why this shows the problems in Parliament.

New episodes released early for C$7+ subscribers. This week, I'm talking about Bill C-4 and what federal political parties want to do with your personal data. #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-17T02:26:33.961Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Twelve Ukrainian regions came under attack as more “peace talks” are underway, while Ukraine struck an oil refinery in the Krasnodar region. President Zelenskyy says that Trump is trying to pressure him to give up territory to Russia.

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Roundup: Disabusing a conspiracy theory

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At the Commons’ heritage committee, there was a bit of a showdown between the Conservatives’ heritage critic, Rachael Thomas, and minister Marc Miller, and it’s an indication of just how stupid the online discourse is right now. You see, a couple of weeks ago, there was a conference in Ottawa for independent film and television producers, and the president of the Canadian Media Producers Association said that they have the prime minister’s back. Immediately, every far-right and bad faith conservative on social media claimed that this was media declaring their bias for the government, when the “media” in question is film and scripted television, not journalism.

Thomas, however, went into this exchange trying to corner Miller to “prove” that this was about journalists being in the tank for Carney. Miller disabused her of that notion, but she kept it up online afterward, completely discrediting herself in the process, but this is part of her shtick—making wildly incredulous claims, which sound absolutely ridiculous to you and I, but to a segment of very online people are absolute catnip. Things like her saying on the floor of the House of Commons that Justin Trudeau was a “dictator.” I wish I was kidding.

There’s a reason why Thomas does this, with Poilievre’s blessing, is because it creates a separate reality for these very online people, which is a darker and more dystopian version of the country that they believe is going to hell around them (often “because woke” or some other such nonsense), but it fuels them with this urgency about how they need to “save” the country from itself, and if that just happens to mean that they need to do it by undemocratic means, well, that’s just what they’ll have to do. Having watched the bifurcated American media create separate news ecosystems that in turn became separate realities for Democrats and Republicans, Conservatives in this country have been salivating at the opportunity to do the same, and Thomas is happy to give them fodder to construct this false reality that they radicalise themselves with. It’s good that Miller is at least one of the very few members of the government to call this out, but also note that in the reporting, The Canadian Press very carefully both-sides her comments rather than simply declaring that she is making shit up, and that is a problem in and of itself, because the Conservatives learned that they can just outright lie and legacy media won’t call them on it. Thomas took that lesson to heart more than most, and this kind of stunt at committee is the result.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-12T22:27:02.144Z

Programming Note: I am taking the full long weekend off from the blog.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian attacks have again left people without power in Kyiv, Dnipro and Odesa, however the weather has been warming, which is reducing the energy deficit. Ukraine says two Nigerians were found fighting for Russia after a drone strike in Luhansk.

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QP: Back to the housing jabs

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The PM was absent, presumably on his way to Tumbler Ridge, BC, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent. That left it up to Andrew Scheer to lead off, and he led off by reiterating condolences for Tumbler Ridge, and asked for an update as to supports being provided. Steven MacKinnon read a statement about their own condolences, and said that at the invitation of the mayor, the prime minister would be there on Friday and that he also invited other party leaders to join him. Scheer thanked him, and then launched into his denunciation into the government’s housing record and demanded the government eliminate the GST on all new homes. Jennifer McKelvie responded with praise for the Building Canada Homes Act before the House currently. Scheer then denounced the state of the auto sector and demanded the government adopt the Conservatives’ plan of removing the tax on all Canadian-made vehicles. Joly first gave her condolences, before reminding him the subsidies are for Canadians. Pierre Paul-Hus took over in French to read the same script in l’autre langue officiel, and Joly reminded him that their auto strategy is about ensuring the sector is still viable in the decades to come. Paul-Hus then blamed increased immigration for making housing unattainable in Quebec City, and Caroline Desrochers read a statement praising their housing programmes. Paul-Hus tried again, and Desrochers read a script about how the Conservatives only have slogans.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she once again asked about the new pension software, and once again, Stephanie McLean read a statement saying that the project was under budget and that seven million seniors are getting their cheques on time, and to forward any names of anyone affected. Normandin was theatrically outraged that there are 85,000 people not getting payments and demanded a commission of inquiry. Patty Hajdu read a statement about the modernization and that any unresolved cases need to contact the government. Sébastien Lemire mocked the answer that the project was on budget, and got a warning from the Speaker. Hajdu offered him a briefing on the system and stated that the ability for people to apply online relieves the burden on the department.

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Roundup: The Tumbler Ridge fallout

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Overnight, the messages of condolences for Tumbler Ridge came, from the King, as well as world leaders. Prime Minister Mark Carney cancelled his planned travel to Halifax and then the Munich Security Conference, and flags on all federal buildings were lowered to half-mast, where they will remain for seven days. Sittings in both the House of Commons and the Senate were cancelled, as were all other parliamentary business, but both Chambers still met for a few minutes to offer speeches of condolences for the victims.

Slowly, facts started to come out, along with stories of students barricading themselves in classrooms, and eventually, the identity of the shooter was confirmed, but not before a lot of disinformation was spreading over social media. Before any details were known, far-right sources were already claiming that the shooter was trans, because this has become a go-to far-right meme because they are desperate to scapegoat trans people for “far-left violence,” and so on, even though the cases of trans people involved in mass killings are vanishingly small. And when it was confirmed that the shooter was indeed trans, well, you can hear the far-right just salivating over this news. It was also confirmed that the police had previous contact with the shooter over mental health issues, and guns had been seized from the property and then returned, and that the shooter had an expired firearms licence (at eighteen, because apparently you can get a licence as young as twelve), but the investigation continues as to the source of the weapons involved.

Within hours, we already had an elected official—B.C. MLA Tara Armstrong—blaming the Tumbler Ridge school shooting on gender-affirming care.

— Mel Woods (@melwoods.me) 2026-02-11T14:59:47.269Z

Unfortunately, I fear that this is going to turn up the rhetoric against trans people in this country as the American culture war/fascist project leaks over the border and poisons our discourse. The Anti-Defamation League has found search histories to indicate that the shooter has an interest in online gore, guns, and white supremacy, so this could point to the kinds of online nihilism that we have seen in other mass shootings in the US, for what it’s worth. But I just worry that this is going to provide ammunition for the likes of Scott Moe and Danielle Smith in justifying their anti-trans legislation, and that it will give Pierre Poilievre and members of his caucus permission to more gratuitously target trans people more than they already have been, including in the last election. Remember that in the history of fascism, they come for trans people first, then queer people, and down the list it goes. Don’t let them engage in this kind of scapegoating.

It's going to be bad.Really, really bad.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-11T23:59:07.097Z

Half-mast over Centre Block.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-11T21:04:45.999Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Kyiv is under another massive Russian assault, following attacks on Bohodukhiv in the east, and an attempted attack on Lviv that air defences intercepted. Air defences around Kyiv are being bolstered.

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Words of condolence on a day of mourning

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Things got underway with a moment of silence in the Chamber at the start of proceedings, late as it always is on Wednesdays, and from there, things resolved to the day’s abbreviated proceedings.

Prime minister Mark Carney, surrounded by his BC MPs in the camera shot, spoke about the nation being in shock, and nine people killed, with 25 others injured. There was no speculating, but rather an admonishment that they must allow law enforcement the time and space to do their work. He spoke about Tumbler Ridge, a community of just 2400 people, founded in the 1980s in the promise of the resource economy. He spoke of the first responders, and the RCMP who entered the school immediately, and of the teachers and staff who saved lives. Carney said that he had spoken to David Eby, that minister Gary Anandasangaree is on his way to the community, along with Gregor Robertson, as he coordinates the federal response, and noted that the local MP, Bob Zimmer, was already on the scene. He raised past mass shootings in the country (and we are fortunate that it’s within the single digits and not a constant occurrence like in the U.S.), before saying that we must seek comfort from one another, and that the House mourns with them.

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Roundup: Refusing a pay raise for populism

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Conservative backbench MP Mike Dawon put on a big media show yesterday by declaring that he will be refusing his scheduled pay raise in April, which is something that the party itself is not actually doing a big song and dance about (at least not yet). In his stated reasons for doing so, he says that “the working man (and woman) in this country hasn’t seen a decent raise in decades,” which is not in fact true. Statistics Canada tracks these things, and average hourly wages in this country have been outpacing inflation going on three years now, and while that’s not everyone because this is an average measure, wages are not stagnant.

This being said, I really dislike these particular kinds of populist performances because they are largely designed to denigrate the role of elected officials in public life, and winds up leading to problems in the long term. Poor pay for MPs means it’s harder to attract talent who have professional careers, meaning doctors and lawyers for example, who frequently need to take a pay cut to serve. And frankly, the other side of ensuring that we have adequate compensation for elected officials is that it discourages corruption, so that they don’t feel the need to take bribes to maintain their lifestyle.

Ontario’s MPPs did away with their pensions and scheduled raises for years, and it created problems with MPPs who would ultimately refuse to retire because they couldn’t afford to, and had few options in the private sector, and there was one story about a former MPP whose financial troubles after leaving office left him destitute, which is not something we should want to expose anyone running for office to. Frankly we don’t want a system where only people with previous wealth get into politics because they can afford to, and these kinds of populist attitudes wind up reinforcing that kind of behaviour.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-02-10T15:08:05.641Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia struck energy facilities on Odesa overnight, meaning more power cuts in the region. There was also an airstrike on Sloviansk the Ukrainian-controlled portion of Donetsk, killing two. President Zelenskyy says that major changes are coming in the way that Ukraine handles its air defences.

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QP: Ignoring the point of a floating dollar

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The PM was present today for the only time this week, as was Pierre Poilievre and the other leaders. Poilievre led off in French, and he worried that last week, Mark Carney said that food prices were high because of the low dollar, and he insisted that Carney needs to answer for that weak dollar. Carney said that the value of the dollar is rising, and that they are working to build big things. Poilievre insisted that Carney was only just answering in slogans and demanded an answer. Carney said that there is a lag in part because the Conservatives are obstructing their legislation. Poilievre switched so English to raise their Supply Day motion, and accused the government of “obstructing” said motion that would seek to deny anyone accused of serious crimes of claiming asylum (amongst other things), and Carney took this as an opportunity to talk about the Conservatives obstructing numerous bills. Poilievre said the government was obstructing their own bills, and then read their motion again. Carney insisted that they are “taking control” of immigration and that asylum claims are down, and there are also trying to tighten bail laws. Poilievre pointed again, this time to his scripts about subsidies for “American-made” EVs and wanted all Canadian-made vehicles to be made tax-free instead. Carney praised their auto strategy in collaboration with the provinces. Poilievre tried again with added bombast, and suggested he listen to the sector or the conservative premier of Ontario about the value of their auto strategy. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and raised the Davos speech, and wondered why, if the U.S. is not a reliable contract, that they would be pursuing the F-35 deal. Carney said that wasn’t in the speech, and that the government was making some expenditures to keep their options open. Blanchet talked around a little before getting to the issue of the Gordie Howe Bridge, and Carney repeated what he told the media earlier about what he told Trump about the facts of the bridge. Blanchet wondered why the government was not protecting the country and scrapping the F-35 contract. Carney said they were still weighing options, including what to will create jobs in Quebec. 

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