Alberta separatists are not chastened

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Even though ballots are still (still!) being counted as of writing time, the general sense is that the remain side of the separation referendum won by approximately 75-25, which is a stomping, but not a roflstomp, and despite what some people are claiming, this is not putting anything to bed. Because Danielle Smith was venal and grasping enough to hold this referendum to appease the separatists she cultivated in her base, she has given them no end of gifts in this referendum—organization, voter lists, and now MAGA-run apps to help with voter identification and organizational support. This is not trivial, because it means that a small but dedicated base can have an outsized impact on the electoral process as a whole in the province, and we’re already seeing that, and they will continue to howl that they are one in four voices in the province (never mind that of that 25 percent, a not insignificant percentage were people who voted yes to “send Ottawa a message,” meaning they didn’t learn their lesson after sending a message to Jim Prentice got Rachel Notley elected). Separatist leaders are already organizing to ensure that Smith doesn’t survive a leadership challenge so that they can install one of their own in the leadership position in the party, and turn the UCP into an actual separatist vehicle. (This may derail the party entirely, mind you, but they have determined that this is their vehicle to achieve their goals without actually organizing their own party). This did not put anything to bed—it has entrenched and emboldened a group who should have been kept marginalized, so thanks for that.

"I'm going to keep feeding you grievance porn but you need to believe in Canada and our capacity to make them give us what we want."What utter fucking bilge.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-21T02:25:13.320Z

And then there are the noxious nine other questions. It looks like a lot of voters didn’t even bother with them, but for those that did, eight of the nine are on track to pass with a little over 50 percent each. (The only one failing is the question on letting the province opt out of social programmes and still getting federal dollars, because there is enough distrust in the competence of a provincial government that is routinely mired in corruption). Nevertheless, the purpose of the exercise was for Smith to manufacture consent to go harder on scapegoating immigrants for the problems she caused with her incompetent government, and the worst part is that a) Pierre Poilievre is chomping at the bit to join in, and b) Mark Carney is also participating, and talking about how they’re going to work with provinces to reduce immigration numbers even more. This is not a good look for a country that is going to be in dire need of more labour to help build the big things they want to build, while it continues to let chronically incompetent provincial governments off the hook for doing fuck all about expanding housing, health care and education capacity for new arrivals which are needed to keep us from population decline.

They're both just going to go gung-ho on scapegoating immigrants, and take this referendum as permisison to do so.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-21T03:14:30.435Z

There is a further issue out of this referendum is that this is yet more confirmation of the rural-urban split in the province, where you have rural areas much more in favour of separation (and opposing immigration, of course). This is one more problem for Danielle Smith and the UCP, as the demographics are irrevocably shifting in the province in a way that will disadvantage them moving forward (which is why she is trying to gerrymander the next provincial election in a desperate move to preserve the status quo). This is something that needs addressing.

https://bsky.app/profile/blakeshaffer.bsky.social/post/3myctl24t5227

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-20T19:08:02.085Z

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QP: Commissionaires and deficit numbers

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The PM was in the building but not present, while Pierre Poilievre was in Calgary. After some tearful statements about Wainwright, it was Michael Barrett who led off, and he lamented that the CRA went with an American-linked security firm instead of the Canadian Commissionaires for a contract (ignoring that the Commissionaires are no longer a company that primarily hires veterans). Wayne Long reminded him that politicians are not involved with such decisions and the CRA operates independently, and that the CRA has a policy of prioritising Canadian procurement, and that this was a Canadian-owned firm. Barrett repeated the question, and got the same response. Melissa Lantsman took over and raised the PBO’s latest report and its dire warnings, and demanded the government rein in spending. François-Philippe Champagne replied with the “good news” of our growth figures and the fact that we have the lowest debt and deficit in the G7. Lantsman disputed this, and Champagne carried on with more good news, decrying the Conservatives talking down the economy. Luc Berthold took over to read the same script about the PBO en français, and Champagne listed some benefits available to Canadians. Berthold retorted that every new benefit means more Canadians at food banks (erm, correlation ≠ causation, my dude), and Champagne decried that the Conservatives only vote against supports for Canadians.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he denounced Bill C-39 as an abuse of power, and Steven MacKinnon took the opportunity to thank Albertans for voting in favour of Canada, and then mouthed some platitudes about the bill. Blanchet listed ways that C-39 could be an attack on Quebec or national unity, and MacKinnon shrugged this off. Gabriel Ste-Marie listed the former employers of the Energy Regulator—all former oil executives, but Dominic LeBlanc gave him some bland assurances about valuing science and it only applying to federal bodies.

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The aftermath of the referendum starts now

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While the votes for the referendum are being tallied at the time of this writing, the question is mostly how badly the separatists got stomped, but also what comes next. Even if they get roflstomped, as the kids say, this won’t go away quietly, because the separatists are now better organized, they have voter lists, and they are organizing to consolidate power in the UCP, which means Danielle Smith’s days are very likely numbered. But that also isn’t stopping people like Pierre Poilievre and his chosen Alberta referendum appointee, Dane Lloyd, from feeding more grievance porn to the separatists to keep feeding their movement.

This is exactly the problem with the "Lead Not Leave" crowd and the federal Conservatives in this referendum debate—they refuse to disavow any of the manufactured grievances, so they just keep feeding the separatists' machine. www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/opi…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-18T02:16:11.388Z

But it’s not just the separatists, but also the other questions from Smith’s noxious nine questions, which has a lot of immigrants worried about their futures, and is creating a worse environment for everyone involved. Scapegoating immigrants is a Very Bad Thing, but don’t worry, Poilievre thinks he’s clever when he says “It’s not the immigrants, it’s Liberal immigration policy!” Yeah, that’s not what people hear, and frankly, it’s not the lesson that the white nationalists that make up the separatists are taking. The fact that Poilievre doesn’t get that isn’t surprising, but he’s also not nearly as clever as he thinks he is, and that’s a problem.

Meanwhile, the Carney government’s responses are not exactly encouraging either. It sure sounds like they are already capitulating on the immigration question, talking with the province about how they can do more to accommodate Alberta’s wishes (remember two years ago when Smith complained she needed MOAR IMMIGRANTS and that Justin Trudeau was hobbling their economic growth as a result?) This just rewards their bad behaviour and scapegoating. And now Carney himself is essentially opening the door to constitutional talks, but says he needs there to be consensus, but this just sounds to me like inviting trouble. Premiers can’t even get their shit together long enough to finally deal with interprovincial trade barriers, and now you want them to start finding ways to come up with constitutional amendments? How is this remotely responsible given the urgency of the crisis that Carney keeps insisting we’re in. Completely irresponsible behaviour, and I would say he should know better, but it’s not like he’s exactly paying too much attention to how federalism is working these days.

Danielle Smith Needs Albertan Separatists To Keep It Together Todayyoutu.be/eB_hFFSZboM?…

— Clare Blackwood (@clareblackwood.bsky.social) 2026-10-19T14:43:34.058Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-18T23:08:01.909Z

My Latest:

  • For National Magazine, I delve into Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision on how “rape-shield” laws don’t automatically extended to questions on past sex work.
  • My weekend column points to the choice that Danielle Smith now has with the UCP—kick out the separatists, or let them drag her and her party to defeat.

New episodes released early for C$7+ subscribers. This week I'm with @hscoffield.bsky.social to talk about the Canadian Tax Observatory's recent reports on the "Mega Deductions" and the Disability Tax Credit. #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-19T04:13:40.097Z

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Carney says no to the nine

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It was the first of two days in Alberta for Mark Carney in advance of the Alberta referendum, where he spent the day in Calgary doing a bunch of glad-handing in places across the city, including an Indian restaurant and the University of Calgary in advance of his appearance at the Forever Canadian rally. What was most notable was that Carney did tell the attendees of one of his events to “Vote no to the nine,” as a reference to the noxious nine other referendum questions, which include attempting to manufacture consent for further racist scapegoating of immigrants, and to try and get a faux “mandate” to pursue constitutional changes, even though the question on trying to insist on provincial paramountcy of laws under the constitution would actually make it harder to build interprovincial pipelines.

There has never been an "open borders" policy in this country, and she knows it. She was demanding more immigrants until it became convenient to scapegoat those immigrants for the very failures of her government in housing and healthcare. She's just bald-faced lying for her own political benefit.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-16T01:36:15.030Z

Danielle Smith got pissy about Carney’s “No to the nine” statement, and insisted that Carney just doesn’t understand the horrors of the supposed “open-border policy” of Justin Trudeau, which is one hundred percent abject horseshit. There were never open borders, and premiers like Smith decided it was suddenly acceptable to scapegoat immigrants for their failures to properly fund healthcare and education or build housing, or in the case of Ontario especially, to crack down on their scam strip mall colleges, so that’s what they did. Never mind that Smith just two years before was writing to Trudeau to demand more immigrants for their economic growth—the tides turned (thanks in part to a poisoned information ecosystem and far-right actors), so suddenly it was “immigrants bad.” It’s frankly disgusting that this narrative goes unchallenged (and no, both-sidesing is not challenging scapegoating).

Meanwhile, the Star wrote about the “Christian” push for Alberta separatism, but couldn’t bring themselves to write that this is not “Christianity,” it’s Christian nationalism. The most galling part is that it named an American who is part of the Christian nationalism movement in that country as though it’s separate and distinct when in fact, it’s the very same movement in Alberta. And I cannot stress this enough—Alberta separatism is a white nationalist and Christian nationalist project. There is nothing to be cute about, or to try and downplay—it’s explicitly the roots of the movement, and the animating discourse throughout it (including why Smith is going hard on her scapegoating). Legacy media shouldn’t soft-pedal this because it needs to be called out for what it is.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-15T19:08:03.898Z

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My column points out that with separatism at low levels of support in Alberta and Quebec, the problem is not national unity, but populist politicians exploiting division.

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Surrendering the field to the separatists, once again

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As the Alberta referendum is now in advanced voting, I am finding my patience being severely tested as the “Lead Not Leave” crowd continues to rely on the same lies and manufactured grievances that the separatists employ to try and insist that while their grievances are real (they’re not), there is a better solution than separation, such as a federal government that capitulates to their demands. But Justin Trudeau did not cause the oil price crash in 2014, Stephen Guilbeault wasn’t even elected until 2019 and wasn’t environment minister until 2021, none of them did anything to cause capital to flee the country (that was the oil price crash), and the oil companies themselves went along with the plans to reduce emissions, claiming they were committed to the goal (only to relevel that—surprise!—they were lying as soon as they had a federal government that was more willing to capitulate than hold them to their promises).

Honestly, fuck off with this revisionist history. Trudeau and Guilbeault didn't cause the world price of oil to crash in 2014. They did nothing to "shut in" Alberta's resources. Trudeau offered help to Alberta in 2015 when Harper didn't. www.readtheline.ca/p/jim-dinnin…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T02:44:22.717Z

The fact that the "remain" camp keeps telling everyone the lies about these fabricated grievances means that they are just accepting the separatists' arguments, and that just seems incredibly stupid because it's validating their false narratives. Can nobody have an honest conversation about 2014?

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T02:44:22.718Z

I cannot stress enough that if you agree with the separatists’ lies, then you have already surrendered the field to them. You are saying that they’re right about the issues, but only wrong in the solutions, which is ridiculous. The “Lead Not Leave” crew also engages in the other false narratives about Albertans, that they are somehow unique examples of people who work harder and are more ingenious than the rest of the country, which isn’t true either. Alberta, when it was carved out of the Northwest Territories, happened to be rich in resources that the First Nations signed treaties to share. Albertans are not harder workers than anyone else. Their ability to extract resources was not thanks to something special about them—they got a shit tonne of federal dollars and special tax treatment.

Speaking as an Albertan, I cannot roll my eyes hard enough every time someone insists that Albertans are a separate people because of their "work ethic" and "entrepreneurial spirit," as though it was their hard work and ingenuity that put the oil in the ground in the first place.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T02:50:18.115Z

"Oh, but it was our ingenuity and entrepreneurial spirit that developed the oil sands!"No, it was a fuckload of money and tax breaks courtesy of Jean Chrétien, both when he was Pierre Trudeau's finance minister and later prime minister. Not that you'll ever hear an Albertan admit that fact.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T03:10:23.265Z

Their good fortune is virtue! Cree first identified the oil sands. Europeans needed a Treaty to exploit it. And now Alberta (a non party) want to end said treaty through individual votes-which contravenes international law, Canadian law Cree law (per Sylvestre). open.alberta.ca/dataset/d5a7…

— Orlagh O’Kelly (@orlaghokelly.bsky.social) 2026-10-15T03:57:27.341Z

Groups like “Lead not leave” and the federal Conservatives who claim to be fighting for the remain side in this referendum rely on these lies and falsehoods to make their point, which is just conceding that the separatists have a point. Until any of them can have anything approaching an honest conversation about what happened in 2014 (and 1981 for that matter), we’re just perpetuating this same cycle of manufactured grievance and this referendum will solve nothing.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-14T13:08:03.510Z

My Latest:

For National Magazine, I dig into the issue of “digital trade alignment” that the Americans were pursuing, and why that is a backdoor to attacking sovereignty.

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Detroit Theatre

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In a bit of bizarre theatre, Pierre Poilievre went to Detroit yesterday to talk to business leaders about the benefits of tariff-free trade. In other words, something every rational person already knows, but that Trump refuses to believe, and along the way, others have become convinced of the benefits of tariffs, including certain Democrats and the United Auto Workers. But first, he had to hold a press conference in Windsor to give his usual talking points about how the two governments need to get a deal, even though there is no deal to be had.

Poilievre is off to Detroit to engage in some more theatre.This is solely for the benefit of his online audience.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-12T18:39:06.830Z

But perhaps more bizarre was how his trade critic, Kyle Seeback, went on Power & Politics later in the day to articulate that apparently, the Carney government just hasn’t found the proper win-win with Trump yet. No, seriously, that’s the position of the Conservatives, because clearly, this is Carney’s fault and Trump must be a rational actor. He then had to choke out a bunch of bullshit when pressed about how there could possibly be a deal when Trump can’t live up to any agreement he makes (and then spiralled as he insisted that the government taking over TMX was bad, and that nationalizing Stelco would be bad, but having the government build Pacific Link would be good, because tHaT’s DiFfErEnT!) Seeback revealed himself to be terminally unserious, as much as his whole party is terminally unserious, particularly on this file. They keep insisting that Carney needs to get a deal when there is no deal to be had, while their idea of “helping’ is magical thinking. Just risible from top to bottom.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-13T19:08:01.544Z

My Latest:

  • My Xtra Magazine column contrasts two LGBTQ+ group’s demands on Parliament Hill, and why one is more likely to achieve something than the other.
  • For National Magazine, I delve into Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision to resolve the tension in sentencing when there is an Indigenous accused and victim.
  • My long weekend column praises Liberal backbencher Patrick Weiler for standing up for his constituents in the face of his party’s own bill as a backbencher should.
  • My Loonie Politics Quick Take explains the unusual committee process for Bill C-39.

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No tariff relief in sight with two parties in favour

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The heads of the two main automotive lobbies were on the Hill yesterday to call for a resumption of negotiations so that tariff-free access can be returned to the auto sector, which is integrated across the border. The problem is that it’s not Canada that’s the problem here, it’s the US, and not just Trump. To wit, even Democrats are saying they would keep tariffs in place, particularly ones the UAW are calling for.

The trouble, you see, is that the U.S. now has two pro-tariff parties.

— David Reevely (@davidreevely.bsky.social) 2026-10-09T00:25:07.710Z

The UAW want to keep the section 232 tariffs in place to protect the US auto industry, Canada be damned. So much for so-so-solidarity with their Canadian brethren and sistren! I think that the auto industry in this country needs to seriously start thinking about a different future because we’re not going to get back to the old status quo. There is simply too much pressure in the US to maintain protectionism, and that ends badly for us, and the longer we keep waiting for something to change in the hopes that the old normal will return, the more our industry is going to suffer.

Disinfo cowardice

Canada has withdrawn its sponsorship of a European disinformation conference because of American pressure. Some of the panels at this conference included discussions of Americans as sources of disinformation, and so they leaned on us, and Lithuania, among others, to pull out, and Canada backed out. They made a bunch of excuses about how there were changes to the “framing” of several panels, which organizers disputed and had receipts, and the CBC even used the Wayback Machine to confirm that Global Affairs was lying to them. This is a very bad sign for the future, and where we can assert our own sovereignty, especially in the face of American pressure and yes, disinformation. Once again, Carney is showing cowardice while making a big roar.

4 What does the Carney government‘s inability to withstand pressure over a few panels at a conference tell us about its willingness to actually regulate US tech companies, or to pursue “digital sovereignty”? Does Mark Carney’s digital sovereignty include predatory and monopolistic US corporations?

— Blayne Haggart (@bhaggart.bsky.social) 2026-10-08T10:46:22.753Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-08T19:08:02.783Z

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QP: Resurrecting the economic record of Trudeau Senior

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The PM was away, having made a heat pump announcement in Sherbrooke, Quebec, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent, leaving it up to John Brassard to denounced that announcement as a conflict of interest with Brookfield. Steven MacKinnon took the opportunity to congratulate Ann Carson for her Nobel prize for literature. Brassard was snide about this, and again repeated the allegation of conflict. Nathalie Provost praised the announcement, and proclaimed how much it will save households and lower emissions. Jasraj Hallan recited talking  points about grocery prices and Thanksgiving, and François-Philippe Champagne took the opportunity to also praise the heat pump announcement while mumbling about stabilising prices. Hallan demanded that the government vote in favour of their supply day motion on there being an affordability crisis, and Champagne listed supports that they have offered Canadians. Dominique Vien also decried the cost of Thanksgiving dinner, but en français, and Provost again read the praise for the heat pump announcement. Vien also demanded support for their motion, and Provost noted how much was sent to Vien’s riding for the enhanced GST credit.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and trolled that a backbench Liberal had concerns about C-39, and wondered who else was going to wake up. MacKinnon trotted out self-congratulating talking points about becoming a clean and conventional energy superpower, and implored the Bloc to support the bill in order to speed up Churchill Falls’ approvals. Normandin noted that most Liberals ran against this kind of thing, and Champagne claimed that the Bloc used to be in favour of building in Quebec, and he again raised Churchill Falls. Gabriel Ste-Marie took over and he too worried about the “Big Beautiful Bill.” MacKinnon listed more projects that the bill would benefit.

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A walkback on MAiD after a bad faith process

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The government made an announcement yesterday that they will be permanently barring MAiD for mental illness as a sole condition, but that they will legislate to allow for advanced directives. They just don’t have that bill ready to table yet. Essentially their hand was forced by a Conservative private members’ bill that was coming up for a vote that would have also banned this category of MAiD, but there were concerns over the language used, so they didn’t want it to pass, so they had to try and get ahead of it, and lo, they have now thrown people’s Charter rights under the bus and put a lie to the notion that mental health is indistinguishable from physical health.

One of the most insulting parts of the announcement, however, was basing it on the special joint committee report, because that report was an absolute farce. The fix was in on the committee before its work even got started, particularly as the government installed an anti-MAiD Liberal as a co-chair, and they went about excluding certain witnesses who would have testified that the profession was ready to do the evaluations necessary to see if people met the criteria for eligibility. Members of the committee resigned because they knew the fix was in, while others—mostly senators—put a dissenting report that called out the problems with the main report. Suffice to say, this was entirely a bad faith exercise with a predetermined outcome in mind, because this is a conservative government in Liberal drag.

They got the decision they wanted from that committee. It was not a good-faith exercise.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-07T20:15:50.820Z

First has been shown to have been illegitimate (e.g., Co-Chairs went in opposed to MAiD and did not exercise authority as Chairs in unbiased way, didn't hear from those being excluded, one Co-Chair suggested people with mental illness can just access fentanyl) 2/3

— Jocelyn Downie (@jgdownie.bsky.social) 2026-10-07T17:48:30.655Z

Second held with no transparency or accountability. Who did they talk with? No way to know what misinformation they were provided and relied upon. Deeply flawed processes = deeply flawed decisions. 3/3

— Jocelyn Downie (@jgdownie.bsky.social) 2026-10-07T17:48:30.656Z

Meanwhile, there have been so many torqued, misleading or outright false articles being published about how Canada is “euthanizing” all kinds of seniors or people with illnesses, part of an ongoing campaign to discredit MAiD in Canada and to prevent its adoption in the UK (legislation was recently voted down narrowly), and there are no stories too horrible that they won’t concoct in order to paint a completely false picture of the state of the law here, while Conservative MPs are all over social media screaming “Why is nobody writing about this?” when the false stories would be describing murder, which is not what happened. But as with so many things, this government is completely uninterested in combatting this disinformation, and will just let it fester because they’re too chickenshit to defend Charter rights when it’s difficult.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-07T13:08:03.106Z

My Latest:

  • My column wonders if Mark Carney will bother to respect the constitution and challenge the PQ’s attempt to “abolish” the monarchy in the province.
  • For National Magazine, I take a deep dive into the labour portion of Bill C-39 and whether it really is an attack on the right to strike.

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QP: Diesel for Thanksgiving

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The PM was present for a second time this week, and on a Wednesday no less, which might actually be a first for this prime minister. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he wanted to wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, but for many families it won’t be happy for many families because the costs of a Thanksgiving dinner has gone up by ten percent, per Dalhousie University, and he wondered when Canadians would be able to have an “affordable Thanksgiving dinner.” Mark Carney echoed the well-wishes for Thanksgiving, and also made note of the previous members’ statement about the anniversary of October 7th, and closed by insisting that they have made life more affordable for families. Poilievre says the prime minister is disconnected from reality, not only with the cost of food but also housing, and cited a Habitat for Humanity study about Canadians being twice as likely as the average in 22 countries about giving up on the dream of buying a house. Carney pointed out that 12 million families received the enhanced GST benefit cheques, and that they are building affordable housing. Poilievre switched to English to again wish everyone a Happy Thanksgiving, and repeated the same Dalhousie statistic. Carney repeated the well-wishes and that 12 million received the benefit, and that 22 million had their taxes cut, in addition to other government programmes. Poilievre insisted that Carney is out of touch  and “you are out of money,” sounding like he was directing that to the Speaker, before he repeated the Habitat for Humanity statistic. Carney tried to insist that he “just got here,” and after the uproar, corrected to say he’s only been here eighteen months compared to Poilievre’s 240 months, and patted himself on the back for announcements made. Poilievre derided this and insisted the government has done nothing, and Carney touted rent reductions and share of income spent on housing falling every single month. Poilievre insisted that nothing is actually getting built, to which Carney made another joke about just having got here, before he touted some economic good news statistics.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he decried that the only priority of the government is the west coast pipeline as a sop to Alberta separatists, which might only fire up Quebec sovereigntists. Carney patted himself on the back for the Churchill Falls agreement, and insisted the pipeline was for Canada’s sovereignty and independence. Blanchet needled that the biggest project in Quebec is actually Newfoundland, and that the beneficiaries of the pipeline are American owners. Carney started that Churchill Falls contains $200 billion in investments for Quebec. Blanchet then pointed out that the government is starving the arts and not helping forestry or aluminium, but they have all kinds of money for this pipeline. Carney again insisted that they are investing in Quebec, and listed some additional projects including high speed rail.

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