Roundup: The dumb mistake of not planning to run for a seat

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We are less than a week away from the NDP leadership race, and once again, we’re hearing incredibly dumb things like the fact that the four candidates who don’t have a seat saying that they won’t be in any hurry to try and get one, never mind that there will soon be a vacancy in Beaches—East York (when Nate Erskine-Smith makes the jump to provincial politics), and it’s a progressive Toronto riding that should be something the NDP could hope to actually win if they tried.

I cannot stress enough that getting a seat at the earliest opportunity is critically important, and we have seen plenty of examples of what happens when a leader doesn’t get a seat. Jagmeet Singh refused for the first year, because he wanted to run in Brampton, and figured that he could just show up for caucus meetings on Wednesdays, and hold a scrum in the Foyer, and that would be just fine, but it wasn’t. He was quickly made irrelevant in the national public discourse, and it wasn’t until he could get a seat—swallowing his pride to run in Burnaby instead—and be in Question Period daily that he at all filtered into the national consciousness and was a relevant player. Likewise, Bonnie Crombie, Ontario Liberal leader, didn’t run for a seat at the earliest opportunity and was irrelevant by the time the election rolled around and just failed utterly. Having a seat matters, and it boggles the mind that nobody understands that.

Meanwhile, it has been noted that this is the first NDP leadership race in well over a generation where there is actual disagreement between the candidates, particularly with Avi Lewis and the rest. And I think it’s more than just different visions, but different tones where Lewis fails to grasp that his tone in the past cost the party seats in parts of the country. And I get that you have pollsters saying that the party shouldn’t discount the fact that there is an audience for Lewis’ message, but I would also point out that much of that message is geared toward extremely online American Democrat fans, where the policy proposals are largely irrelevant to the circumstances in this country, or at least broad swaths of it. It’s somewhat hilarious that there is an absolute blindness to this fact while they chase those votes, ignoring the readily available votes that could be on the table if they actually listened to the people who are supposed to make up their voter base.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-20T22:56:01.423Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia region killed four, while power infrastructure was knocked out further north.

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Roundup: Justifying ghoulish behaviour with a single study

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Alberta has announced that it is closing its safe consumption sites in Calgary and Lethbridge, citing that they will be “transitioned” to different services like withdrawal beds and addiction clinics, and justified by a single study that used anonymized data to show that the closure of the site in Red Deer didn’t lead to increased overdose deaths or emergency room visits. And there’s a lot to unpack here.

One of the problems is that the province has a bunch of dodgy partnerships with providers for these supposed addiction recovery services that are privately owned, not proven to work, and who have some pretty spotty histories. Nevertheless, the ties to the government are suspicious and reek of collusion and possible corruption, as with so many things in the Danielle Smith government.

The other problem is that this single study, that stands apart from thirty years’ worth of public health research, is emboldening conservatives across the country to claim that this “proves” safe injection sites don’t work. Federal Conservatives are using this in a series of ghoulish demands for the federal government to end its authorizations for these sites, using a bunch of other straw man arguments like the fact that there are no age restrictions on safe consumption sites (because apparently minors who are addicts should just use in an alleyway). Another Conservative MP has been trying to ask gotcha questions about whether fentanyl is safe to inject, never mind that it has pharmaceutical applications (which is part of the problem). It’s stupid and dangerous, but this singular study is emboldening it, and I fear that we’re in for another round of increased overdose deaths as certain provincial governments beyond Alberta take this one study to heart.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-20T13:24:02.456Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones hit two foreign-flagged civilian ships in Odesa. Ukraine has begun to evacuate children from Sloviansk as the security situation deteriorates there. Some 228 Ukrainian drone specialists have now been deployed to five countries in the Persian Gulf to counter Iranian drone attacks.

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Roundup: Blame Canada, TC Energy edition

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Earlier this week, the CEO of TC Energy gave an interview to Bloomberg about how all of prime minister Mark Carney’s efforts to speed up development were useless, and that any project should be approved within six months, and look, Mexico did it so why can’t you. It’s absolutely risible, and six months is not an approval process—it’s a meaningless rubber stamp. Of course, he also continues to blame the Canadian government for a whole bunch of that were not the Canadian government’s fault, but he has a receptive audience who have convinced themselves that everything is Justin Trudeau’s fault, so he gets away with saying it, and not only that, Conservatives go around repeating it as if it were gospel.

Andrew Leach, however, has receipts, and he’s not afraid to use them.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034514364267671649

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034515097482354975

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034517279753613823

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034518679698977152

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034520782790099204

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034521694111719721

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034734811416600902

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-19T21:27:02.634Z

Poilievre on Joe Rogan

Everyone (but me, apparently) spent the day listening to it and taking notes about what he said. So, after a ten-minute discussion about kettlebells, Poilievre dismissed the conspiracy theory about Justin Trudeau’s father, he did say he’s been texting Carney about his trip in the US, that he won’t slam Carney while on foreign soil, and that when it comes to Trump talking about the 51st state stuff, he wants him to “Knock that shit off,” because he’s edgy and swears! But he’s still on about how he wants us to still be friends, sort-of defended MAiD, says that Alberta separation won’t happen, but then went on one of his bizarre tangents about the “truth” about environmentalists, claiming the environmental damage from the oilsands is “bullshit.” Because of course he did. And then they talked about UFC, because they’re bros, or something.

Justin Ling gives his take on the interview, and the unfortunate fact that Canadian politicians like going on American shows a little too much.

https://twitter.com/a_picazo/status/2034490092916482223

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/2034615508696289498

In case you were wondering why Pierre Poilievre went on Joe Rogan's podcast, I have the answer for you! It's for the ladies! The ladies who love him and his sexy Canadian kettlebell! www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZRL…

— Clare Blackwood (@clareblackwood.bsky.social) 2026-03-20T00:38:49.550Z

Ukraine Dispatch

EU experts arrived in Ukraine to inspect the damaged Druzhba oil pipeline, which is part of the dispute with Hungary. The EU president also says that they will find a way to get their €90 billion loan to Ukraine in spite of Hungary’s veto. Here is a look at queer nightlife in Kyiv in the shadow of the war.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/2034650510192508971

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/2034574488965194127

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Roundup: Missing the point about the Senate

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Because everything is so stupid all of the time, a new conservative think tank popped up in Calgary that is issuing stupid polls, some of the questions of which fundamentally do not understand how Parliament works. They call themselves the “Aristotle Foundation,” and it’s a collection of the usual right-wing (and in some cases, far-right) suspects, and when they claim to be championing “reason, democracy and civilization,” well, you can start picking up where the dog-whistles are sounding.

In any case, they published this stupid poll (and of course, the National Post picked it up, because a bunch of their columnists are members of this think tank), and the very premise of their questions are absurd. “55 percent of non-Western respondents would be open to negotiating with Alberta or other Western provinces amid the threat of separation.” As well, there was a question on whether they “favoured reform of the House of Commons and Senate in the case of threats from Western separatism and Quebec separatism.” Why anyone would want to negotiate with a group of crybabies who make up a marginal fraction of the population is beyond me, but it’s not my poll. Nevertheless—negotiating about what, you ask? Supposed under-representation in the House of Commons and the Senate. They even have a handy chart about population per senator to make their case. I swear to Zeus, I am going to lose my mind.

If you're complaining about "per capita representation" in the Senate, might I suggest you read a fucking book for once in your life? nationalpost.com/news/canadia…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-19T04:29:03.776Z

The Senate is not and has never been a rep-by-pop chamber. It is, in fact, designed not to be. That’s the whole fucking point of why it was constructed the way it was in 1867. It’s explicitly designed along regional lines in order to counter the rep-by-pop of the House of Commons, because having two rep-by-pop chambers would be stupid and counter-productive. Yes, the Atlantic provinces have outsized representation explicitly to counterbalance their small populations in the Commons. That’s why the breakdown is regional: 24 seats for Quebec, 24 for Ontario, 24 for the Maritimes, and 24 for the west (and then the three for the territories and six for Newfoundland and Labrador were later additions). If you don’t understand this basic bit of Canadian civics, what exactly are you doing? Other than shit-disturbing? This is beyond idiotic, and I cannot believe that they want to be taken seriously.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-18T22:01:56.308Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck several apartment buildings in Odesa. Ukraine struck two Russian plants building and maintaining military and cargo planes. Here is a look at the interceptor drones that Ukraine is sharing with several Gulf states.

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Roundup: Do something about privatization!

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If there is something I am getting mighty tired of, it’s the constant demands by certain healthcare groups that the federal government needs to stop in and “do something” about creeping provincial privatisation, and most especially Alberta’s proposed legislation on essentially creating a two-tiered system. Yesterday the demand came from community leaders in PEI who are afraid that Alberta will poach their doctors. To all of them, I ask just what exactly they think the federal government should do, and to be specific.

I am getting so tired of these."Ottawa must intervene!"How? Be specific. The Canada Health Act doesn't just the federal government swoop in and take over, or give them the power to stop a province doing something you don't like. At most, it lets them claw back funding on a dollar-for-dollar basis.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-17T14:20:41.917Z

The thing is, this is provincial jurisdiction. The federal government can’t just swoop in and overrule them. The Canada Health Act doesn’t work like that. It is a funding agreement that if provinces abide by the five conditions laid out, then they get federal dollars, and if they don’t, those dollars get clawed back. And every year, Health Canada provides a report on provincial compliance and that includes lists of clawbacks, which are dollar-for-dollar what people get charged inappropriately. But that’s the extent of their powers. And in spite of what certain people (and certain journalists most especially) may think, a funding agreement does not make it “shared jurisdiction.” It’s fully provincial jurisdiction, and the federal government has conditions on their funding. That’s it.

So, while the Canadian Health Coalition may keep having press conferences and rallies in Ottawa, it won’t do any good. Their call to action for the federal government on Alberta is basically 1) Conduct a compliance review for Alberta which, again, already happens every year; 2) Urge the Alberta government to “pause implementation” of their legislation; and 3) use the penalties available to them, which again, they already do. Wow. Do what you’re already doing and urge Alberta not do go ahead. Wow. So effective! Meanwhile, the place they’re not rallying day in and day out is in front of the Alberta legislature, and everywhere Danielle Smith goes, even though that’s where the pressure needs to be applied. The federal government is not the provinces’ daddy, and it can’t send bad premiers to bed with no dinner if they misbehave. That’s not how the constitution works, and people need to grow up and hold their own premiers to account.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack damaged port and energy infrastructure in Odesa. Russia claims to have taken villages in Sumy and Donetsk, which Ukraine has not confirmed. President Zelenskyy was in London to meet with Keir Starmer about continued support for Ukraine; he also met with the King while there.

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Roundup: Longest Ballot Committee is back at it

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The losers at the Longest Ballot Committee are back at it, this time targeting the by-election in Terrebonne, because of course they are. Despite the fact that their supposed protest has not garnered them any actual traction to their cause, which tracks, because their means of protest is pretty divorced from the results they’re trying to achieve, which is to convince people that what we really need is proportional representation. Flooding the ballot with names nobody will vote for doesn’t scream “We need PR,” but what do I know? And then, their “longest ballot” turned into the shortest ballot in Battle River—Crowfoot, when it simply became a write-in ballot because it was easier for Elections Canada at that point (even though those ballots take more time to verify).

This being said, we could have had measures to help blunt their attempts when the House of Commons was trying to pass changes to the Canada Elections Act in the previous parliament, and the Chief Electoral Officer had suggestions for how to thwart these losers, but none of it got implemented. Why? The Conservatives, led mostly by the antics of Michael Cooper. The Conservatives decided to fuck around with that bill instead of treating it seriously for a myriad of reasons, some of which included the fact that one of the proposals was to move the “fixed” election date a week later to avoid Diwali, but it also would have put a bunch of MPs (mostly Conservatives) over the line for their pensions, and the Conservatives (and Bloc and NDP) decided that this was a ploy by the Liberals to get their MPs those pensions (again, even though it was mostly the Conservatives who would benefit).

Cooper then spent his time on dilatory motions, such as “reasoned amendments” at second reading to prolong debate, and then once at committee, it was all manner of silly buggers, like “Change the fixed election date to three weeks from now so that the election is before Jagmeet Singh’s pension comes to pass,” and on and on it went, until we had the prorogation for Trudeau’s announced resignation, and the election call once the leadership had passed, before prorogation ended. That meant the bill died, and no changes were made to blunt the losers at the Longest Ballot Committee from doing this over, and over again, no matter that the Conservatives complained when Poilievre was targeted. And so, here we are, with them going at it yet again.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia made a rare daytime drone attack on Kyiv, that included targeting the city’s independence monument. Russia claims to have taken a dozen settlements over the past two weeks, which Ukraine is disputing (as they push Russian lines back).

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/2033471908142789046

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Roundup: Myth-busting the carbon price on diesel

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For months, we’ve been hearing the Conservatives blame the industrial carbon price and the clean fuel standard for rising food prices, often citing the so-called “Food Professor” as the source of these claims. They’re hilariously wrong, but just how wrong? Energy economist Andrew Leach does the math, and demonstrates where the “Food Professor” went so wrong. (Some of these are threads, so be sure to click through because they were too long to replicate in this post).

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2033225831443816578

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2033324064933347805

And the longest explainer thread is here:

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2033309960902426664

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 430 drones and 68 missiles at Ukraine on Saturday, and six people were killed, five of them in Kyiv. President Zelenskyy says that Ukraine wants money and technology in return for the anti-drone assistance they are providing to countries in the Gulf region.

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Roundup: Trying to politicize the Order of Canada

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Because everything needs to be stupid all of the time, Conservative MP and obnoxious windbag Andrew Lawton started circulating a petition in support of his nomination of Don Cherry to the Order of Canada. The Order of Canada advisory board does not respond to petitions. It is an arm’s-length body chaired by the Chief Justice in order to apolitically weigh the nominations for the Order. I make this point because the honours system in Canada is held by the Crown in order to keep it apolitical (which is one reason why constitutional monarchy is superior). Lawton circulating this petition, which is being signed and championed by members of his caucus, including his leader, is the very definition of politicising these honours for the sake of culture war bullshit—after all, Cherry eventually lost his lucrative CBC gig because of racist commentary.

But because Lawton was so keen to gin up the culture war grift, he inadvertently pissed off members of his own caucus—specifically, most of the Quebec members, who are not fans of Cherry because Cherry also spent his career insulting Quebec and European players, and they are not looking to forgive and forget. And now this is spiralling because culture war grifting is by its very definition stupid and self-defeating. But when your political fundraising is tied to this same grifting complex, is it any wonder that this kind of self-own happens? And will they learn any lessons from this? Of course not.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-13T13:24:01.664Z

Carney-versary

It’s the one-year anniversary of Mark Carney being sworn-in as prime minister, so there are a few retrospectives. The National Post takes stock of what we know and don’t know about him, and the fact that there are still a few mysteries. JDM Stewart enumerates the expectations placed on Carney that he will need to deliver on. Althia Raj talks to 33 sources about that first year in office, and it’s a pretty honest assessment of the trends both good and bad he has demonstrated.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian shelling killed one and wounded six in Dnipropetrovsk region, and an attack in Zaporizhzhia region injured four. President Zelenskyy warned that pausing Russian oil sanctions will only prolong the war.

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Roundup: Another call for NEP 2.0

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Pierre Poilievre has written another letter to the prime minister, this time demanding the creation of a strategic oil reserve like other countries have, never mind that unlike other countries that have said reserves, we are a net exporter and not a net importer (and yes, the US is now a net exporter, but they were not always, which is why they have a strategic reserve). The most ironic thing? This is just one more example of Conservatives demanding a redux of the hated National Energy Programme that Pierre Trudeau tried to launch in the late seventies, after the global oil crisis that happened then.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2032212730762166778

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2032122736475337196

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2031814419584520455

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2031815720108257417

Of course, part of this has to do with Poilievre’s fantasy notion that such an oil stockpile, along with critical minerals, is going to be how he gets leverage over Trump in trade talks, and that it can be used to bolster allies—but only allies with whom we have tariff-free trade agreements. Never mind that it is unlikely to persuade Trump to abandon tariffs, which he loves. Never mind that he has no plan for how to pay for such a stockpile, and he would need to fund some kind of an oil arbitrage agency. It’s facile, and it’s deeply cynical, particularly because included in this demand are once again the insistence that we abolish environmental laws, because Poilievre has convinced himself that they’re just one big con, and that it’s a bunch of environmental elites somehow profiting off of said laws (because apparently there are no costs to climate change, and it’s all just in our imaginations).

https://twitter.com/coreyhoganyyc/status/2032214070892642460

Meanwhile, the Canadian Climate Institute published a report that says that once the industrial carbon price reaches minimum price of $130 per tonne, that it would effectively add fifty cents to a barrel of oil, in direct contravention to the pronouncements of doom that Poilievre and the Conservatives keep insisting that said price is doing to food prices and the economy. This after certain pundits claimed it would add $20 per barrel, which is of course nonsense.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2031860654190281176

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2032152971174428885

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian drones hit an oil pumping station in Russia’s Krasnodar region. Ukraine signed a joint defence procurement with Romania, that includes the production of drones.

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QP: Demanding a strategic oil reserve

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The PM was on his way to Yellowknife, and Pierre Poilievre was elsewhere, in advance of his own trip to the US, leaving it up to Melissa Lantsman to lead off. She complained that there is no strategic oil reserve, and demanded the government adopt their plan to create one, to which Tim Hodgson explained how the IEA works, which is that net importers have reserves while net exporters don’t. Lantsman shot back that just because you don’t need one it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t, before she demanded the government scrap environmental laws to pump more oil. Hodgson responded that the Conservatives apparently can’t take a lesson from the Alberta government in working together to build. Gérard took over in French to demand the same oil reserve, to which Steven MacKinnon repeated Hodgson’s first response in French. Deltell accused the government of having “contempt” for Canadian energy, before he pivoted to food price inflation, and this time MacKinnon reminded him that he voted against all help for Canadians who needed it. Chris Warkentin took over, and in English, he too read the script on food price inflation with the falsehoods about “hidden taxes.” Wayne Long took a swipe about Poilievre going to Europe for no reason while Carney was in the Asia Pacific to sign trade deals including uranium. Warkentin tried again and Julie Dabrusin reminded him that the industrial carbon price has zero effect on food prices.

"A ten-year record of shutting down our oil and gas sector"

— Aaron Wherry (@aaronwherry.bsky.social) 2026-03-12T18:23:43.134Z

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she worried about the government not informing the public about Canadian personnel at a military base in Kuwait being targeted by Iran. Anita Anand said that Canada is not participating in the conflict, but could not say more for security reasons. Normandin tried again, and Anand again stated that all Canadian Armed Forces personnel in the region are safe and sound, and then made a pitch for international law. Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay tried this yet again, and Anand repeated her same answer.

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