Stabilizing levels + 200,000 additional permanent residents

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One of the sub-plots from the federal budget release last week was the release of the immigration numbers therein, and the fact that they are planning to hold them “steady” for the next couple of years in order to achieve “stability”when they have a lot of problems with the system internally (not the least of which is their totally-not-digital-asbestos determination software that is screwing up constantly). In there, however, was an additional pledge to turn 200,000 existing temporary residents into permanent residents, many of them Hong Kongers and Ukrainians who are already in the country under special programmes related to their situations. They’re also extending the work permits for temporary foreign workers from one to two years, while still insisting that Canadians get first priority when the reality is always more complicated than that.

This didn’t stop the Conservatives from having a meltdown about it, Pierre Poilievre releasing a video to call it “insane,” and to blame “corporate power brokers.” The thing that gets me, however, is the fact that you have legacy media just going along with it when the Conservatives are outwardly concern trolling, claiming it’s about not having housing or healthcare capacity and not just pandering to white nationalists in their voter base, while absolutely nobody will say a gods damned thing about the fact that not a single premier is living up to their own responsibilities when it comes to those particular issues, and this becomes an issue of federal levels and blame. It’s just so tiresome, but this is where the discourse is at in Canada.

Things got a little heated during Mike Le Couteur's interview with Michelle Rempel Garner on last night's Power Play.

— Scott Robertson (@sarobertson.bsky.social) 2026-11-07T15:32:38.484Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-11-09T14:08:03.673Z

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For National Magazine, I delve into what’s in the budget for courts and the justice system, and while there are a few promising glimmers, most of it is not nearly enough.

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Budget Day 2026

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It was Budget Day, and of course, because it’s 1995 and will always be 1995, the headlines are always about the deficit. (Budget document here). It turns out that the deficit for the current fiscal year is about half of the earlier projection, thanks to increased revenues (in large part because of high oil prices), and it’s being kept steady for the next few years while the government once again took up the increased revenue to fund a bunch of things, most especially their Mega Deduction.

Budget 2026 in one graph

— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe.bsky.social) 2026-11-05T22:18:11.388246+00:00

Budget 2026 sees federal debt dropping to 19% of GDP by 2060; I get ~48%. #cdnecon #cdnpoliTwo key differences: net debt doesn’t subtract non-financial assets (capital), and I assume we meet the new NATO target. Long-term fiscal challenges may be bigger than budget implies.

— Trevor Tombe (@trevortombe.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T00:55:34.329048+00:00

ok, here's what underlies the whole document. This is a HUGE windfall relative to the Spring Economic Update. Add up the extra and it is $186B. That's how they piled on so much extra spending AND lowered the deficit forecast.Easy to do with +$186B in your pocket!

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-11-06T00:56:50.939Z

Some highlights of the coverage:

  • $52 billion to double electrical capacity by 2050—and considering this a climate plan
  • Plans to extend the open banking framework to other sectors, while still delaying the actual open banking implementation.
  • More tax breaks for tech CEOs, because “innovation.” Also, EDC and BDC are merging.
  • $400 million more for military drones, plus more funding for space launch capacity.
  • A few more details on the “Canada Strong” sovereign wealth fund.
  • New laws to “streamline” expropriations for the Alto high speed rail project.
  • The hope is for the tax breaks and incentives to create an “investment super-cycle”
  • There is $5 billion for culture, including CBC and journalism.
  • There is a promise of $6 billion for CSIS, possibly the largest increase in funding ever.
  • The budget aims to work with provinces to end homelessness in ten years. 
  • There is also $50 billion over ten years for Indigenous programmes and services.
  • The budget doesn’t give any clues as to the future of health transfers.
  • Immigration levels are to be kept largely the same, with plans to convert 200,000 temporary residents to permanent residents. 
  • There remain unanswered questions about the path to meeting NATO targets.

Reaction from the opposition has been pretty much as expected—Pierre Poilievre is howling that the deficits will fuel inflation (which is not what is happening with inflation), while Avi Lewis demands a wealth tax (that won’t generate the revenue he claims) and for it to be spent on “lowering the cost of groceries” (no, subsidizing a “public option” is not actually lowering the cost) and building more housing (for unrealistic amounts of money). 

https://twitter.com/coreyhoganyyc/status/2118466518858277166

Budget commentary includes:

  • Justin Ling delves into the promises for drone production.
  • Kevin Carmichael points to the signals the budget sends to the bond markets.
  • Susan Delacourt sees the government taking the cue about affordability.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-11-05T20:08:02.591Z

My Latest:

My column looks at all of Mark Carney’s talk about “values” in foreign policy and wonders when we might actually see some—other than “making money.”

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QP: Book-cooking and Telesat accusations

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The PM was finally present, for a few minutes anyway, in advance of the budget release. The other leaders were also present, and Pierre Poilievre led off in both French and English to once again demand the all fuel taxes be scrapped in the budget. Mark Carney reminded him that the budget would be tabled in a couple of hours. Poilievre stayed in English to accuse the government of “cooking the books” on immigration, and Carney pointed out how far down the numbers were, including the slowest population growth in decades. Poilievre continued a hysterical rant about immigration levels, and Carney insisted that they had “taken back control.” Poilievre then accused Carney of “cooking the books” on government debt, and Carney patted himself on the back for cutting “operational spending,” and quipped that Poilievre only knows how to tear down and not build up. Poilievre gave a smug smile and said that he doesn’t know how to build up billions of dollars in debt, and then moved to the questions on Telesat. Carney pointed out that the process began in 2007 and that he hasn’t made any decisions around it. Poilievre insisted that the contract was awarded this August, and again demanded to know who he discussed it with. Carney again said he wasn’t involved in any decisions around it, and suggested Poilievre read the National Security Strategy and said that they would Build Canada Strong™ in space.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he read out the Liberal Women’s Commission’s denouncement of Bill C-39. Carney said that Quebeckers and Canadians want to build and build faster and deployed his slogan about one project, one review, in one year. Blanchet then quoted a Quebec union leader’s concerns about the bill, whom Carney has consulted with, and Carney gave some boilerplate about respecting her and the right to strike. Blanchet then raised the AFN national chief’s concerns about the bill, and Carney patted himself on the back for the meeting between Indigenous leaders and premiers, and that she was aware of the need for the bill.

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A starting line, not a finish line

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Amidst all of the jubilation over the midterm results, I feel the need to be something of a dark cloud for the silver linings, because I think that there is a lot of over-reading what happened (to say nothing of confirming one’s priors). I have seen clips floating around social media where people are declaring this to be the “effective end of the Trump era,” and oh sweet summer child, no. Not even close.

Congressional leaders are already trotting out lines like they don’t want to “get even, but get things done,” which is part of America’s problem—not excusing past misdeeds because the “pendulum swung back,” they don’t want the same to happen to them once they’re out of power, and they are allergic to holding the rich and powerful to account, because they all believe that they are temporarily displaced billionaires who don’t want to be held to any higher standard once their ship comes in. And frankly, the “getting things done” is going to be a problem is they want to focus on affordability because there’s not a lot that Congress can do about it, and it could be a trap for themselves if they allow it to become their fault by over-promising and being unable to deliver.

"The American people don't want us to get even; they want us to get things done on their behalf."House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, who is now poised to become the next House Speaker, says that Democrats will focus on affordability concerns and not retribution after their midterm wins.

— MS NOW (@ms.now) 2026-11-04T13:01:08.240Z

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3mzih62wjvs2r

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3mziha5jegk2r

https://bsky.app/profile/smsaideman.bsky.social/post/3mzifcgwzk2sc

This notion that American democracy was not restored is extremely important, because too many people are taking a victory lap right now. This is just the beginning of the fight, as Anne Applebaum lays out in this video. America is structurally broken. And frankly, nobody trusts that your next election cycle, you won’t go back to MAGA because all the Democrats stayed home because their candidates didn’t pass their purity tests sufficiently. You know, like what happened in 2024. 

What was at stake – and what is at stake now www.youtube.com/watch?v=ofOn…

— Anne Applebaum (@anneapplebaum.wsocial.eu) 2026-11-04T11:18:49.443Z

Lots of Americans mistaking the starting line for a finish line today.

— Daniel Munro (@dkmunro.bsky.social) 2026-11-04T20:09:17.238Z

Are the kids out of cages?Have deportees been welcomed back?Are the people murdered in the Pacific resurrected?Is Venezuela’s oil returned?Is Russia’s diesel rejected?Is global aid restored?No? Put the party favours away and get back to work.

— Daniel Munro (@dkmunro.bsky.social) 2026-11-04T20:04:47.064Z

And then there are the voices in Canada, particularly conservative ones, who think that Carney’s whole Davos conception has now fallen apart, which is…frankly risible. Pierre Poilievre had a press conference where he essentially said that we just have to appeal to Americans’ better nature because they proved they hate tariffs, but that’s also nonsense because, well, they may say they hate tariffs, but they never seem to remove any. (He also doesn’t seem to understand that to Americans in this election, we were a punchline. That’s it). We’re not out of the woods yet. Not even close.

https://bsky.app/profile/stephaniecarvin.bsky.social/post/3mzism76t4s2j

Nor are the Democrats coming to save usEven in Progressive America, there is a fundamental underestimation of the damage done and global perception of the US. The world is way past ‘common ground’ solutions

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes.bsky.social) 2026-11-04T11:27:19.496Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-11-04T20:08:03.758Z

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QP: Conspiracies and conflicts of interest in the MPO

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The PM was in town but absent, possibly napping after arriving back home at 3 AM. Pierre Poilievre was present, and he led off in French, demanding that the prime minister cut all diesel taxes in the budget tomorrow. Steven MacKinnon reminded him that the price increases were because of the conflicts in the Middle East, while the Conservatives voted against help for Canadians. Poilievre then listed the perceived conflicts of interest around Telesat, and demanded an accounting for them. Mélanie Joly defended Telesat as a great Canadian company that needs support. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his performance about demanding the prime minister cut all diesel taxes in the budget tomorrow. MacKinnon got back up to point out that the Conservatives have systematically opposed measures to help Canadians. Poilievre went on a rant about American companies pushing biodiesel as part of his demand for an end to diesel taxes, as he continues to claim that clean fuel standards are “taxes.” Julie Dabrusin delivered the usual lines about helping Canadians, and noting that there is a biodiesel facility just outside of his riding that benefits the farmers in his riding. Poilievre returned to his line about there being two economies, and then repeated the accusations around Telesat. Joly got back up to praise Canadian companies like Telesat being key to our sovereignty. Poilievre claimed that they raise theatrical distractions if they get “caught with their hands in the cookie jar,” and repeated his accusations. Joly noted the long-standing poilcy around supporting firms like Telesat and wondered if Poilievre was in it for American firms.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, listed items that the government has capitulated on the Americans on, and wondered about if they are the “masters of our destiny.” Joël Lightbound listed projects like Churchill falls that the Bloc should support. Normandin listed further environmental capitulations and that “masters of our destiny” was supporting their own priorities. Lightbound listed benefit programmes that the Bloc have not supported. Jean-Denis Garon demanded compensation for Quebec for asylum seekers and to not re-index certain benefits, and Lightbound listed further supports for Quebec firms by the government. 

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Asking less and offering more?

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I don’t have much in the way of commentary to offer about the U.S. midterms because ultimately I don’t think it will change much for Canada. Democrats are still protectionist, there are unions in the States calling for tariffs to be maintained, and Trump still has veto power and tariffs he’s been using fall under executive powers thanks to the interpretations of his corrupt Supreme Court. Maybe I’m cynical, but Americans are still Americans, and one election does not undo the mess they made, nor can we trust that this will hold in any significant manner. We also cannot trust that Americans will ensure there are any consequences for the last two years, because most of the power brokers and players will want to “move on” and “find common ground.” 

https://bsky.app/profile/smsaideman.bsky.social/post/3mzhjtrg3wk5e

This having been said, there is chatter about renewed trade talks with the U.S., even though there is no realistic possibility of a deal to be had because as we’ve established, they don’t live up to any of their own deals. Prime minister Mark Carney told media at his Commonwealth meeting presser that the Americans have budged on some red lines, and are “asking less and offering more,” but unless anything is better than what we have under the existing New NAFTA agreement, why should we sign onto something that is demonstrably worse, which he won’t honour anyway?

Report: Canada still isn't taking you back

— The Beaverton (@thebeaverton.com) 2026-11-04T05:04:28.536Z

This of course makes the Conservatives’ current play—that the government needs to sign a deal right away, and that we cannot afford to hold out for another two-and-a-half years until the Trump regime has ended (maybe) to be curious. It’s apparently their assertion that we have no resilience, and that we should fold at the slightest bit of discomfort rather than doing something to help those who are suffering as a result of these illegal and unjustified actions against us. Of course, they also believe that tax cuts will “restore affordability” and that trickle-down economics will create “powerful paycheques,” so we should interrogate these beliefs as often as we can.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/2117842885970117030

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-11-03T14:08:04.484Z

My Latest:

My (overdue weekend) column looks at how Danielle Smith is leaning hard on culture war bullshit to save her own hide. (Site issues prevented this being posted earlier).

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QP: Prisoners of Pessimism

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The PM was away at the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in Antigua and Barbuda, but all other leaders were present. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, noted the midterms in the U.S., and claimed that the PM was just “losing” against the Americans, and demanded a deadline for a new U.S. deal. Dominic LeBlanc insisted that they were negotiating to come to an agreement that was in Canada’s interests, which Poilievre would not recognise. Poilievre repeated the same in English, and LeBlanc was more pointed in saying that Poilievre would be the leading expert in the House of Commons on theatrics, and said that they did agree there was economic harm, which is why they were supporting Canadians rather than accepting a bad deal. Poilievre insisted that the government should be at the table right now, and again insisted the government was only offering theatrics, and LeBlanc repeated his same points. Poilievre raised a food bank report from Toronto and demanded to know when we would get a “good deal,” and LeBlanc again said that unlike the opposition, they were not neglecting Canadians who are affected. Poilievre then insisted that there are two economies—one who for people who follow the rules, and one who make them, and raised the issue of corporate-paid employees seconded to the Major Projects Office. Leblanc cautioned him not to invent conflicts of interest where none exist, and that those people are stepping up to serve the country. Poilievre railed about “corporate power brokers,” apparently confusing himself with the leader of the NDP, and lamented people skipping meals before he demanded help for them in the budget. Tim Hodgson listed the jobs that approved projects are supposed to create.

Marilyn Gladu is sitting in Carney’s seat, and I still can’t get my head around it. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-11-03T19:22:47.161Z

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he said that Carney has sold out to the Americans, whether it was selling out on the digital services tax or on the environment in service of American corporate giants. Joël Lightbound praised their cultural spending in the budget, and told him to wait for Thursday’s “excellent” budget. Blanchet demanded the GST credit be doubled again, or to lift the GST on second-hand goods, and Lightbound recited the tax breaks and benefits already delivered that the Bloc didn’t support. Blanchet demanded action on their list of budget demands (which is funny because the document is already printed), and Lightbound praised their cultural spending “historical” infrastructure agreement with Quebec.

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The Alberta gerrymandering has begun

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The Alberta boundaries report has been tabled in the legislature, and as pretty much everyone expected, it’s a fairly textbook example of gerrymandering in the UCP’s favour. As expected, they are resurrecting a number or rurban/“hybrid” ridings which take a slice of urban electorate and then swamp them with outlying rural voters, in order to dilute more progressive urban votes. And they have monkeyed with the weighting, so that rural ridings have fewer voters and thus more electoral weight than urban ridings, again all in service of privileging the rural, conservative voters over urban, progressive voters in order to guarantee that the UCP will have a structural advantage moving forward.

Oh hey Alberta's latest (and highly controversial) electoral boundary report is out: www.assembly.ab.ca/docs/default…And it's got a bunch of "hybrid" ridings that blend urban and rural areas into one.For example, here's the proposed new "Calgary-North West-Bearspaw" riding:

— Robson Fletcher (@robsonfletcher.com) 2026-11-02T22:25:08.983Z

And here's "Calgary-Bow-Springbank":

— Robson Fletcher (@robsonfletcher.com) 2026-11-02T22:26:44.348Z

And here's "Calgary-West-Springbank":

— Robson Fletcher (@robsonfletcher.com) 2026-11-02T22:27:53.278Z

And here's Lethbridge, which is currently two ridings (Lethbridge East and Lethbridge West).The city is now proposed to be split into four ridings, three of which spread into surrounding areas:"Lethbridge""Lethbridge-Little Bow""Lethbridge-Taber-Warner""Lethbridge-Cardston"

— Robson Fletcher (@robsonfletcher.com) 2026-11-02T22:36:14.844Z

https://bsky.app/profile/blakeshaffer.bsky.social/post/3mzeht5n2u22t

Elections Alberta had already asked the government to push back their “fixed” election date because of this redistribution effort, and the Cabinet gave a pissy “How very dare you,” because of course they did. And we’ll see if this gets challenged in the courts, because this kind of gerrymandering is blatantly unconstitutional, but Danielle Smith is going to try, because her only interest is in holding onto power. 

Mickey Amery has responded to Elections Alberta's Friday letter that said it wouldn't be possible to pull off an election with new boundaries in the time allotted…By basically saying "You'll do what we want and you'll like it".#abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli

— The Breakdown AB (@thebreakdownab.bsky.social) 2026-11-01T23:06:26.858Z

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3mzenovcq6k2w

Meanwhile, there was a whole other sub-drama happening at the end of the week, where Smith announced that she had kicked separatist leader Jeff Rath out of the party. Recall that at the last party convention, he fired up the audience more than Smith did, and demonstrated that he had a hold on the membership base. This also happened after Rath leaked texts from Danielle Smith about her colluding with them about the petitions for the referendum questions. It’s a little suspicious for Smith to dump the allies who got her to where she is now that they’re no longer convenient for her, but again, everything that is happening here is in service of Smith holding onto power for as long as she possibly can.

WOW!Jeff Rath posted text messages that he alleges are from Danielle Smith!These texts seem to show her coordinating with the separatists to launch their original question, though Rath claims he took them as her coordinating with @lukaszukab.bsky.social !What do you think?

— The Breakdown AB (@thebreakdownab.bsky.social) 2026-10-27T20:57:50.057Z

WOW!The Rath texts are real. Smith colluded with the separatists.Confirmed by Dani in the legislature today. And while she tried to spin them as just answering questions, she also makes it clear the texts weren't meant for Lukaszuk.#abpoli #ableg #cdnpoli

— The Breakdown AB (@thebreakdownab.bsky.social) 2026-10-28T20:04:18.326Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-11-02T14:08:34.159Z

My Latest:

For National Magazine, I delve into Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision on inattention and dangerous driving, and what signals the Court might be sending.

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QP: Returning to bad-math gas tax demands

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The PM was absent, preparing to depart for the Commonwealth meeting in Antigua and Barbuda. Pierre Poilievre was present, and he led off in French demanding that the government eliminate all gas taxes in the budget. Julie Dabrusin noted that the heat pump programme will help people save money from coast-to-coast-to-coast, and that bio diesel will help farmers in Poilievre’s riding. Poilievre suggested that heat pumps help Brookfield and biodiesel subsidies aid American companies, and repeated his demand. Dabrusin wonders why Poilievre can’t help farmers in his riding provide canola for biodiesel. Poilievre switched to English to make the same demand again, and Dabrusin repeated her same points about canola and biodiesel, which is supported by the clean fuel standard. Poilievre called her out of touch, and wailed about the cost of diesel for farmers, and this time Wayne Long stood up to recite some good news talking points about Thursday’s budget release. Poilievre mocked the government’s record, with particular attention to food banks and housing, and Long repeated his same praise for the upcoming budget. Poilievre repeated his same faulty math about gas taxes, and this time, Tim Hodgson listed government support programmes that Poilievre voted against.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she listed agenda items on the Canada-EU talks that were in areas of Quebec’s jurisdiction and demanded a seat at the table. Steven MacKinnon praised how good this agreement is for Quebec and Canada. Normandin demanded some transparency about these items rather than just leave everything in the PMO, and MacKinnon said that transparency was having a meeting in Montreal attended by six former Quebec premiers, which…missed the point. Alexis Brunelle-Duceppe demanded the doctrine that claims to allow Quebec a seat at the table, and MacKinnon insisted that they are engaging all provinces with discussions in areas of their jurisdiction. 

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Poor oversight and vague outlines

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It was Auditor General Day yesterday, and there were a bunch of reports released, including three from the Environment Commissioner, who is in her office. And so, this is what they found:

  • The CBSA’s new digital management software, CARM, is still glitchy two years later and they spend a lot of time on manual workarounds.
  • FINTRAC continues to be plagued by reporting backlogs that aren’t going to be cleared until next year at least.
  • National Defence didn’t manage their ammunition inventory effectively.
  • Ways to improve the dental care programme after it exceeded its budget.
  • The government still won’t outline their plan to meet their 2030 emissions targets.
  • The procurement process for new call centre technology has been a mess.
  • Health Canada isn’t following up on high-risk pesticides identified with monitoring.
  • PHAC has not effectively managed their emergency stockpiles.
  • The government stopped work on banning thermal coal exports without saying so.

There is a common theme about a lack of oversight in many of these reports, and while a lot of these issues are from the Trudeau era, I have observed that there was an issue with a lack of proper management of government departments, where the attitude seemed to be that these civil servants were left to manage their own affairs, which they didn’t necessarily do effectively. Whether that’s because ministers didn’t feel they were qualified to because they were constantly reporting to the Centre (meaning the chief of staff) was a possibility, or perhaps it was because they didn’t realise that it was their responsibility to do so. I wonder if it will get worse under Carney, however, as ministers are preoccupied with trying to use digital asbestos to “find efficiencies,” or because major projects and decisions are being shunted off to Crown corporations to manage them instead, which are more arm’s-length, and as a result get less scrutiny. We’ll have to see, but the trend is not encouraging.

The government also released their first National Security Strategy in twenty years, and it was a slim, high-level document that had very few details, but outlined five broad themes, including a focus on economic security. There is also concern outlined about “frontier” digital asbestos being a major threat. Philippe Lagassé considers the defence-related items, while Stephanie Carvin has her initial thoughts here.

Carney says we are "forging new partnerships with allies that are anchored in our common values."What are our "common values" with China, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Türkiye, and Modi's India? If the common value is making money, then he should just come out and say so.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-30T00:54:22.514Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-29T19:08:01.843Z

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