Roundup: Poor widdle baby oil companies

The oil and gas sector in Alberta has decided that with the situation in Iran going on, and the federal government’s stated desire to export more in order to be the so-called “energy superpower,” that they are going to flex their muscles more, and demand that carbon pricing or other regulatory measures need to go. It’s a load of bullshit, however there are a whole lot of people who will uncritically believe that the sector are just widdle babies who are so hard done by and that any carbon pricing is just too much for them to handle.

Energy economist Andrew Leach is calling bullshit, because if they are so fragile that they can’t withstand pennies on a barrel (because remember, they are also generating a tonne of credits under Alberta’s carbon pricing system) then it’s incredibly suspect. And these are the companies who also insisted that Pathways was their future, and that with that technology, they could increase production without emissions. Now they’re claiming it’s impossible to do without the federal government paying for the whole thing, which is pretty much just tearing off the fig leaf—either they were lying the whole time (which is why they panicked when greenwashing legislation came into effect), or they simply think they can get away with crying poor and that the federal government needs to pay for everything. Neither case looks good on them, but they figure they have the leverage, and they fully intend to use it.

May the 4th

In past years, a lot of government departments got in on the action. This year? Hardly any. StatsCan used the opportunity to launch the census, and CSIS of all departments put out a tweet, but that seemed to be it. Which is too bad. Departments used to really get into it, and you had some really good tweets, and some abysmal ones, and it was fun to rank them. (Also, valiant effort by CSIS, but they got the wrong photo. That’s not Cracken—this is. They got Blount. And yes, I am a Star Wars nerd).

Ukraine Dispatch

A mid-morning Russian missile attack hit the Kharkiv region, killing two and wounding over thirty. Russia also hit five energy facilities in the past day. Data shows Russia has targeted port facilities ten times more than the past year. Russia claims they will observe a ceasefire for their Victory Day festivities, and Ukraine says they will abide by it.

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Roundup: Two committees move behind closed doors

There is a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth happening by the Conservatives because debate in two committees was moved behind closed doors now that the Liberals are able to exert majority control of them. The cry is that they’re shutting down “public debate,” but I’m dubious. Members of the government won’t say why this was necessary, but I’m not ready to pull the fire alarm just yet.

Why? Because the two committees in question have been in the throes of attempted witch hunt studies that the Conservatives have been trying to orchestrate (with the gleeful assistance of the Bloc, who are happy to embarrass the government any day of the week). In the ethics committee, it’s been the wrangling over trying to insinuate that François-Philippe Champagne was in a conflict of interest because the Alto high speed rail project was included in the budget when he has since put up an ethics screen because his spouse is now an executive on the project. The thing is, the Ethics Commissioner already said that there is no conflict because Alto reports to a different line minister, but Champagne put up the screen out of an abundance of caution. He did agree to appear after a filibuster, but this may be the Liberals trying to get out of it, and not unsurprisingly. The Conservatives have been trying to engineer this meeting so that they can harvest a bunch of clips of them calling Champagne corrupt and him prevaricating or looking obstinate.

The other committee is health, where the Conservatives are trying to manufacture another “boondoggle” around the PrescribeIT project, which as I understand it, was created at the behest of the provinces, who then decided not to take it up once it was developed. Oh, but there was outsourcing! And? They haven’t been able to make any particular allegation other than it cost money, and this is somehow entirely the federal government’s fault for trying to accommodate provinces who, to this day, refuse to come together on common standards for electronic health records, which has been a persistent problem for two decades now. Suffice to say, I’m not convinced that moving procedural wrangling in camera is a sign that democracy is under threat, and there was a whole lot of this very same thing when the Conservatives had a majority on committees (and they turned those committees into branch plants of ministers’ offices). They may try to cast themselves as heroes for inventing scandals, but I remain unconvinced that this is a danger to parliamentary democracy just yet.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-04-29T13:08:02.607Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s attack on Odesa early Wednesday hit residential buildings and a hospital. Ukraine says its new long-range drones hit a Russian oil pumping station 1500 km away from the border. Here is a look at the interceptor drone programme to stop Russia’s Shahed drones, and how the interception rate is now up to 90 percent.

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Roundup: The most unexpected floor crossing

To say that the announcement that Conservative MP Marilyn Gladu had crossed the floor to the Liberals was a surprise is an understatement. It was a genuinely gobsmacking moment because Gladu is, to be blunt, an absolute loon. She’s Maple MAGA—a Trump lover, who pushed Ivermectin and hydroxychloroquine as COVID cures. She was a hard-core “convoy” supporter whose seal for their cause had Poilievre create a portfolio of “civil liberties critic” for her to continue to espouse nonsense on their behalf. She opposed the banning of so-called “conversion therapy” and was open to members of her caucus legislating to restrict abortion. She would even talk about how, in her experience as a chemical engineer, she had to deal with Chinese corruption on projects, which is why she would not trust the regime. None of this would seem to endear her to the Liberals in any sense.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3miyl5lk4422e

https://twitter.com/pothen/status/2041907679807918431

I’m going to write more about what his means for the Liberals in a longer piece later, but it cannot be understated what this means for Poilievre, because she was very much his people. She represented the base he was trying to court, and in the end, she walked away from him, and her statements once she crossed over were about needing a leader for this critical moment, which one could very much take to mean that Poilievre is not such a leader. The Star spoke to some Conservatives who claim that as many as 40 members of caucus are worried about their seats under Poilievre’s continued leadership, while Chris d’Entremont told CTV that he gets questions from Conservatives about what life is like with the Liberals, and they don’t sound like they’re turned off. If you’re Poileivre, that has to be a loud and clear message that in spite of the vote of confidence he received in his leadership review, his caucus is worried and history shows they won’t be mollified by a grassroots approval—nor should they be. Of course, they’re all busy pledging their loyalty to the party over social media, but things cannot be that comfortable in the caucus room, and it’s a real question as to whether Poileivre has self-awareness or EQ in order to read that room.

With that, I’m going to give the last word to Andrew Coyne. And the Beaverton.

Five reasons MPs keep leaving my party that have absolutely nothing to do with me – Editorial by Pierre Poilievre

The Beaverton (@thebeaverton.com) 2026-04-08T19:19:23.311Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones damaged a power substation in Odesa, as well as port infrastructure and a civilian vessel in Izmail. Ukrainian drones struck a Russian oil terminal in occupied Crimea.

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Roundup: The Senate rumour mill churns

There has been a raft of rumours out about the Senate the past couple of days, the latest being that there could be yet another caucus forming, possibly out yet another split within the Independent Senators Group, because there is some friction over the current leadership—erm, “facilitatorship”—and that is not entirely unsurprising. The ISG is large and unwieldy, and when you have that many type-A people in a room who all have their own ideas on how to do things, and their own agendas, it’s little wonder that they can barely organise themselves to do anything. So we’ll see if this happens, but nevertheless, I can confirm that I’ve heard grumblings about the current state of the ISG.

Meanwhile, there is another rumour circulating, both from the Globe and Mail and iPolitics that prime minister Mark Carney is looking to appoint Tom Pitfield to the Senate—the same Tom Pitfield who won a turf war within the PMO that saw David Lametti take a job as UN ambassador instead of the post he was supposed to take up within PMO. The rumours also state that he would take over as Government Leader in the Senate and take up a seat in Cabinet like the post is supposed to be, but this too is being denied. The source of this rumour also hints that Carney is going to start appointing partisan Liberals to the Senate again, which I’m not necessarily opposed to, provided that there is no expectation of a whip, which never really existed in the Senate before, but with almost no former Liberal senators left, the new batch may be under some false pretences.

Meanwhile, I find myself baffled by the notion that Carney is looking to appoint Pitfield and partisans in order to move bills through the Senate, as though there is obstruction happening there. There is not. Government bills are passing through at a pace that is actually too fast for proper scrutiny in many cases because of an exaggerated sense of faux urgency, while the real problem remains in the House of Commons, which has barely passed any legislation, leaving senators bored and preoccupied with their own hobby-horse bills, and frankly, some of this talk about splitting caucuses is likely a result of that boredom.

Programming Note: I will be taking the full long weekend off. See you next Wednesday.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched a daytime drone attack and killed four people in the central Cherkasy region, damaging more energy infrastructure. Russia also claims to have fully taken control of the Luhansk region, which Ukraine denies. Ukraine struck a missile component factory in Russia’s Bryansk region.

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Roundup: Lewis on the first ballot

Avi Lewis won the NDP leadership race on the first ballot on Sunday, with Heather McPherson a distant second, and surprisingly, Tanille Johnson came in third and Rob Ashton fourth.  Of course, there was chatter over social media that there were Palestinian flags on the stage when this happened by no Canadian flags, so make of that what you will. While there is a lot of talk about how “radical” Lewis’ ideas are, most of them are within the mainstream of the party, though they still suffer from some of the same problems of feasibility and inability to distinguish between federal and provincial roles, so we’ll see how that starts to play itself out.

Congratulations to Avi Lewis on your election as NDP leader.As Prime Minister I will always take a collaborative approach to how we build a stronger Canada, and I look forward to speaking about how we can work together to keep delivering for Canadians.

Mark Carney (@mark-carney.bsky.social) 2026-03-29T16:29:29.516Z

Thank you to Don Davies for your service as Interim Leader of the NDP over this past year, and for your work to create new opportunities together for Canadian workers.

Mark Carney (@mark-carney.bsky.social) 2026-03-29T16:29:29.517Z

Poilievre's congratulations to Avi Lewis.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-29T20:51:23.374Z

https://twitter.com/yfblanchet/status/2038279508462010734

Almost immediately, there was reaction from the two prairie provincial wings of the party, as Naheed Nenshi and Carla Beck immediately sought to distance themselves from Lewis, just as Danielle Smith and Scott Moe immediately pounced to insist that you’re the same party, and that we’re going to tar you with the same brush. Because that’s helpful. Even Wab Kinew, who spoke at the convention, is putting some distance between himself and Lewis, so this could be very interesting moving forward.

Alberta NDP Leader @naheednenshi.bsky.social immediately distances his party from the federal party. This statement just out, minutes after @avilewis.ca becomes federal NDP leader. #cdnpoli

davidakin (@davidakin.bsky.social) 2026-03-29T15:30:29.000Z

https://twitter.com/punditsguide/status/2038286835101876641

And on top of that, the calls from within the party to start the purge of the disloyal, citing that Jeremy Corbyn didn’t do it effectively enough with Labour in the UK. Because that’s totally how you build a movement that can attract votes.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-29T20:02:15.977Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian attacks early Saturday his port infrastructure in Odesa, as well as a maternity hospital. Early Sunday, a strike on Kramatorsk killed three and injured at least thirteen. Ukraine is closing in on several agreements with Gulf states about protection from Iranian drones, with Zelenskyy currently in Jordan.

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Roundup: Poilievre’s anti-trans colours

Yesterday, Pierre Poilievre tweeted an endorsement of JK Rowling praising the International Olympic Committee’s decision to ban trans women from sport, using a photo of Algerian boxer Imane Khelif as illustration. In spite of conspiracy theories and slander, Khelif is not trans (and is from a country where being queer is a crime). Poilievre should know this, but he is choosing to double down on anti-trans rhetoric (with a dose of misogyny and slander along the way). This is not the first time he has shown himself to be anti-trans, but this is the first major opportunity since he’s been trying to cast himself in a new light.

In case you needed any clarification where Poilievre stands on trans rights.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-27T17:16:48.712Z

The discussion of this online turned to Mark Carney’s stance on trans rights (he has been blandly supportive, and one of his children identifies as non-binary), and whether he is going to do anything about provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan, who have invoked the Notwithstanding Clause to protect their anti-trans legislation from court challenges. The answer is that he doesn’t have the constitutional tools to do anything about it other than moral suasion. And then someone will pipe up and say that he can use disallowance.

No, he can’t. Disallowance is a constitutional dead letter because it was largely meant to prevent provinces from intruding into areas of federal jurisdiction, and that power was essentially adopted by the Supreme Court of Canada’s reference function. This means that any residual disallowance power would be a declaration of war on a province, at a time when you have two provinces that are flirting with separatist agitation. It’s not going to happen. Stop pretending that it’s a possibility because it’s not.

For the last time:The federal government is NOT going to use disallowance.Stop pretending it is a magic wand to deal with asshole premiers. You want to stop them? Get off your ass and organize, organize, organize. That's how politics works.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-28T04:36:47.504Z

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-27T13:24:01.622Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine’s economy minister said that the rise in fuel and fertilizer prices thanks to the Iran conflict are not expected to impact Ukraine’s spring planting season.

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QP: Demands to fire the current and two former immigration ministers

Unusually for a Tuesday in the current Parliament, the PM was not present today even though he was in the building, but Pierre Poilievre was present, and led led off in French, and he raised the Auditor General’s into student visas, and he torqued and misrepresented what was found. Lina Diab got up to recite that they have taken on the AG’s recommendations, and provided a corrective in terms of what triggers investigations. Poilievre declared that the question was for the PM who “is in Ottawa” (skirting the line of what is allowed), and demanded the PM fire the current and past two immigration ministers. Marc Miller, one of those past ministers, got up and took a gratuitous swipe at Poilievre. Poilievre then switched to English to again demand those three minsters be fired, and Sean Fraser, the third of those former minsters, said that if anyone is guilty of political incompetence, it is Poilievre. Poilievre claimed that Carney is encouraging incompetence, and again recited torqued and misleading claims from the report, and again demanded they be fired. Diab got back up to repeat her first response in English. Poilievre mocked her response, and Diab again got back up to praise that the Auditor General for agreeing that they tightened the system. Poilievre took a swipe at the absent Carney and demanded he “stand up now,” and this time Steven MacKinnon to praise the Liberal record and Diab’s performance, and touted the decline in population as though that was a good thing.

Backbench Liberal to Poilievre: “How many antivaxx billionaires did you meet with?” #QP

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-24T18:24:49.144Z

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and badmouthed the lawyers at the Supreme Court on the Law 21 challenge, and demanded the government withdraw their arguments. Fraser said that they are standing up for the constitution, and that the Supreme Court is the best place to have this debate. Blanchet treated this as the assertion that the federal government is superior to Quebec’s, and this time Joël Lightbound expressed some confusion with the question, and pledged that the government would not use disallowance. Blanchet then took swipes at Pierre Trudeau, and claimed that the argument is a “colony of Canada,” to which Lightbound reminded him that Quebeckers are challenging the law at the Court.

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Roundup: Big problems with student visas

Yesterday was Auditor General Report Day, and there were three on offer—the replacement for the Phoenix pay system, recruitment problems with the RCMP, and problems with the student visa system.

In short:

  1. The Phoenix replacement, Dayforce, is taking lessons learned from the problems of Phoenix, but in terms of simplifying pay rules, there has been no progress with the unions (which is not a surprise).
  2. The RCMP recruitment process is so bad partly because the RCMP hasn’t done enough workforce planning, their application process times keep getting longer, and they aren’t filling training classes. (Of course, the real problem is the force is horribly broken and needs to be dismantled and replaced).
  3. The student visa issue has been beset by problems with anti-fraud controls, and there has been a lack of resources to investigate cases. Additionally, the planned reductions in visa numbers wound up being way worse than intended (but that’s hardly a surprise when they get the message that they’re not wanted).

The thing that gets me in particular about the student visa issue is that the provinces are getting off scot-free here. I know the AG has no mandate to investigate provinces, but so many of the problems with this programme started with the provinces, who have not been held accountable for them, whether it’s because they cut university funding, which made them reliant on the higher tuition of foreign students, or the fact that several provinces, most especially Ontario, let these fraudulent strip mall colleges flourish, which were in turn used to be a source of cheap labour, and the federal government, which doesn’t have the mandate or capacity to investigate these colleges, is left taking all of the blame. No, the department is not blameless, as the audit shows, but the wider problem is not addressed by this, and continues to go without any accountability.

PBO candidate

The nominee for the new Parliamentary Budget Officer, Annette Ryan, appeared at the finance committee, where the Conservatives outright declared that they will not vote for her because they claim that the interim PBO, Jason Jacques, was “silenced” for calling the government out, and that he should get the job. Except that he disqualified himself, and he was not fired, nor did he “expose” anything. He made an ass of himself on camera, but that’s what the Conservatives want, and they are now spreading lies to make that point. Just unbelievable.

This is pathetic.Jacques wasn't fired. He didn't "expose" anything. His term expired, and he disqualified himself from the permanent post because he decided he wanted to play for the cameras. But that's why Poilievre wants him on the job, because for him, Parliament is a clip factory.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-03-24T00:46:12.483Z

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-23T13:08:04.927Z

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy is warning of an imminent “massive attack” against the country. He also says that he has “irrefutable proof” that Russia is providing intelligence to Iran.

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Roundup: The dumb mistake of not planning to run for a seat

We are less than a week away from the NDP leadership race, and once again, we’re hearing incredibly dumb things like the fact that the four candidates who don’t have a seat saying that they won’t be in any hurry to try and get one, never mind that there will soon be a vacancy in Beaches—East York (when Nate Erskine-Smith makes the jump to provincial politics), and it’s a progressive Toronto riding that should be something the NDP could hope to actually win if they tried.

I cannot stress enough that getting a seat at the earliest opportunity is critically important, and we have seen plenty of examples of what happens when a leader doesn’t get a seat. Jagmeet Singh refused for the first year, because he wanted to run in Brampton, and figured that he could just show up for caucus meetings on Wednesdays, and hold a scrum in the Foyer, and that would be just fine, but it wasn’t. He was quickly made irrelevant in the national public discourse, and it wasn’t until he could get a seat—swallowing his pride to run in Burnaby instead—and be in Question Period daily that he at all filtered into the national consciousness and was a relevant player. Likewise, Bonnie Crombie, Ontario Liberal leader, didn’t run for a seat at the earliest opportunity and was irrelevant by the time the election rolled around and just failed utterly. Having a seat matters, and it boggles the mind that nobody understands that.

Meanwhile, it has been noted that this is the first NDP leadership race in well over a generation where there is actual disagreement between the candidates, particularly with Avi Lewis and the rest. And I think it’s more than just different visions, but different tones where Lewis fails to grasp that his tone in the past cost the party seats in parts of the country. And I get that you have pollsters saying that the party shouldn’t discount the fact that there is an audience for Lewis’ message, but I would also point out that much of that message is geared toward extremely online American Democrat fans, where the policy proposals are largely irrelevant to the circumstances in this country, or at least broad swaths of it. It’s somewhat hilarious that there is an absolute blindness to this fact while they chase those votes, ignoring the readily available votes that could be on the table if they actually listened to the people who are supposed to make up their voter base.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-20T22:56:01.423Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia region killed four, while power infrastructure was knocked out further north.

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Roundup: Blame Canada, TC Energy edition

Earlier this week, the CEO of TC Energy gave an interview to Bloomberg about how all of prime minister Mark Carney’s efforts to speed up development were useless, and that any project should be approved within six months, and look, Mexico did it so why can’t you. It’s absolutely risible, and six months is not an approval process—it’s a meaningless rubber stamp. Of course, he also continues to blame the Canadian government for a whole bunch of that were not the Canadian government’s fault, but he has a receptive audience who have convinced themselves that everything is Justin Trudeau’s fault, so he gets away with saying it, and not only that, Conservatives go around repeating it as if it were gospel.

Andrew Leach, however, has receipts, and he’s not afraid to use them.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034514364267671649

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034515097482354975

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034517279753613823

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034518679698977152

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034520782790099204

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034521694111719721

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2034734811416600902

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-19T21:27:02.634Z

Poilievre on Joe Rogan

Everyone (but me, apparently) spent the day listening to it and taking notes about what he said. So, after a ten-minute discussion about kettlebells, Poilievre dismissed the conspiracy theory about Justin Trudeau’s father, he did say he’s been texting Carney about his trip in the US, that he won’t slam Carney while on foreign soil, and that when it comes to Trump talking about the 51st state stuff, he wants him to “Knock that shit off,” because he’s edgy and swears! But he’s still on about how he wants us to still be friends, sort-of defended MAiD, says that Alberta separation won’t happen, but then went on one of his bizarre tangents about the “truth” about environmentalists, claiming the environmental damage from the oilsands is “bullshit.” Because of course he did. And then they talked about UFC, because they’re bros, or something.

Justin Ling gives his take on the interview, and the unfortunate fact that Canadian politicians like going on American shows a little too much.

https://twitter.com/a_picazo/status/2034490092916482223

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/2034615508696289498

In case you were wondering why Pierre Poilievre went on Joe Rogan's podcast, I have the answer for you! It's for the ladies! The ladies who love him and his sexy Canadian kettlebell! www.youtube.com/watch?v=AZRL…

Clare Blackwood (@clareblackwood.bsky.social) 2026-03-20T00:38:49.550Z

Ukraine Dispatch

EU experts arrived in Ukraine to inspect the damaged Druzhba oil pipeline, which is part of the dispute with Hungary. The EU president also says that they will find a way to get their €90 billion loan to Ukraine in spite of Hungary’s veto. Here is a look at queer nightlife in Kyiv in the shadow of the war.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/2034650510192508971

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/2034574488965194127

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