Tag Archives: Budget 2026

QP: Filling time before the Spring Economic Statement

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In advance of the spring economic update, the PM was absent, and the other leaders were not present, but were off getting briefed for the 4 PM media rush. That left it up to Melissa Lantsman to read the script about “credit card budgeting” and capping the deficit. Dominic LeBlanc said that he appreciated her enthusiasm but it was false, and good news was on the the way. Lantsman tried again, and LeBlanc equated her “tired talking points” to an eight-track. Jasraj Hallan repeated the same script with added scorn, and LeBlanc repeated his assurances that the good news was on the way. Hallan read some complete nonsense about inflation, and this time, Steven MacKinnon gave his prepared lines about demanding a list of Conservative cuts. Pierre Paul-Hus took over to read the French version of the script, to which Mélanie Joly patted herself on the back for putting the fiscal house in order while helping Canadians with measures like cutting the price of gas. Paul-Hus demanded a cap on the deficit, and LeBlanc said that within a couple of hours, they would have the good news they were waiting for.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she decried that the prime minister called himself a nationalist but wanted a pipeline which Quebeckers don’t want. Joly said that the prime minister called himself an economic nationalist which is why he was launching a national sovereign wealth fund. Normandin was not mollified, and on her follow-up, MacKinnon listed projects that government was supporting. Xavier Barsalou-Duval took over to worry about a parliamentary secretary meeting with a group that promotes contract truckers. Peter Schiefke said that he accepted an invitation to talk about road safety for truckers, and would do so again.

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Roundup: Thirteen cherry-picked charts

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Ahead of the spring economic update, the National Post ran a story that contained thirteen charts that they claim were proof that Justin Trudeau delivered a “lost decade” to the Canadian economy. To absolutely no one’s surprise, the charts were awfully selective in how they presented the data, because everybody has decided that they have a vested interest in creating an image of how much Trudeau “doomed” the country. And to be perfectly fair, Mark Carney himself has engaged in these kinds of rhetorical games, which his insistence on using the “new government” moniker has been nothing more than an effort to disassociate himself with his predecessor.

To wit: yes, we fell behind the US on GDP per capita because we rapidly increased our population while the US didn’t, and that increase staved off an economic downturn post-pandemic, until everyone decided to start scapegoating those same immigrants for provinces under-investing in housing and healthcare capacity. The rise in business insolvencies? Mostly a post-pandemic correction when a lot of businesses that would not have survived did only because of those pandemic supports, and the levels are returning close to the pre-pandemic baseline. The number of self-employed freefalling? Again, this was because of the pandemic because a whole lot of those self-employed got stiffed by the companies they invoiced and they didn’t get paid, so they took salaried jobs. I can’t speak was much to the number of high-value start-ups fleeing Canada other than the fact that many of them specifically set themselves up to sell to American companies because that’s where the money was. Total investment per worker declining? My dudes, corporate Canada decided they don’t care about productivity because they only want to be rent-seekers, so that’s what they do. Climbing cost of living? The chart is without context to demonstrate how we compare internationally given the inflation spike late in the pandemic, where Canada did far better than most of our comparators. Home prices? The chart cuts off at 2015 so it doesn’t show that they also doubled under Harper, but this is mostly a provincial/municipal problem as the federal government has very few levers for the problems of charges and zoning. Public sector rising faster than private sector? What does that include? Does it include provinces? Does it include nurses or teachers? How does it compare to under-investment and cuts in the Harper years? Again, context matters. Federal deficits? Have you seen the state of the world? Healthcare wait times? That’s provincial—how are you trying to pin that on Trudeau? He gave plenty of transfers to provinces that got put on their bottom lines to pay down deficits rather than hiring nurses or expanding capacity. The rise in the violent crime severity index? The piece scapegoats this on immigrants, again without any context for how those figures are way down from historical highs.

It’s shitty journalism, but this is the kind of thing that the we’ve come to expect from the Post, simply in service of a narrative.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-04-27T13:17:49.975Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The attack on Odesa early Monday wound up injuring fourteen, and hit residential buildings and a hotel. A worker at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, still under Russian control, was killed in a drone attack.

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QP: Complete rotting nonsense about a “national credit card”

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The PM was in the building, and had done the “walking in” introductions for the three newly-elected MPs this morning (unusually, as this is normally done just before QP), but he was not in Question Period for whatever reason. Pierre Poilievre was present, and led off in French, referencing a Journal de Montreal article about seniors who don’t feel they can retire, and he blamed this on “inflationary taxes and deficits” and wondered if the government would rein those in. François-Philippe Champagne took the opportunity to praise this morning’s announced sovereign wealth fund. Poilievre trotted out his new line about a “credit card budget” and demanded the government cap the size of the deficit. Champagne rattled off the growth rates in the G7 to note why Canada is expected to grow faster. Poilievre switched to English to decry the size of the deficit, and again repeated the “credit card” line along with the demand for a cap. Champagne repeated that they have good news about the sovereign wealth fund, and that they are building together to benefit together. Poilievre tried his “prime minister is in hiding” line and got cautioned for the Speaker, and then called the sovereign wealth fund a slush fund put on the country’s credit card. Champagne repeated his lines about the rate of economic growth in the G7. Poilievre trotted out his self-important claim that he had a better economic record than Carney, and again lamented the “credit card.” Steven MacKinnon got up to note that inflation is in the target range, and he wondered just what exactly counted as “inflationary spending.” Poilievre listed the high speed rail project, the gun buyback, consultants, bureaucracy, supposed “phoney refugees,” and so on. MacKinnon noted that it was funny to consider money that hasn’t been spent inflationary, and then wondered which other programmes counted.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she lamented that the new U.S. tariff calculations were disproportionately targeting Quebec, and demanded a wage subsidy for affected industries. Joly agreed that the tariffs were abusive and agreed they would help workers. Normandin demanded more actions to help Quebec’s industries, and Joly pledged to continue defending Quebec’s workers. Gabriel Ste-Marie noted a business in his riding that is closing because of tariffs, and Joly again repeated that they are there for Quebec’s workers.

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Roundup: Boulerice reaches for the exit

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Multiple sources have confirmed to multiple news outlets that NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice is about to pull the plug and make the jump to provincial politics, running for Québec Solidaire in the upcoming election. Boulerice is the sole survivor of the 2011 “Orange Wave” that swept Quebec and made inroads into metro Toronto, but in many ways, Boulerice has been a reminder of the party’s failure to capitalise on the gains they made in that election, particularly in Quebec.

The most obvious failure was the party’s inability to cultivate grassroots in the province. Riding associations in most of the province existed on paper only, and they had a habit of running paper candidates for the sole purpose of being able to say they ran candidates in every riding so that they could maximise their spending caps. In the 2011 election, you had a group of McGill students who were placed as paper candidates in several ridings they had never visited, as well as a bar manager from Carleton University, and because of the fluke of Quebec voting emotionally for “Le Bon Jack” after Jack Layton had his bout of cancer and he would wave his cane everywhere, these paper candidates won. But did they do the work of actually building grassroots organisations at this point? Nope. Because the NDP is a party where they consider their federal and provincial wings to be the same organisation, they tend to leave their provincial wings to do the grassroots organising, and well, there isn’t a provincial NDP in Quebec, and so they didn’t, and they paid for it when Quebec’s mood shifted.

The party did try to start up a provincial wing at one point, running candidates in a provincial election, but they failed miserably and got nowhere with it, in part because the NDP didn’t know what it wanted to be in Quebec, where there is already a crowded field that is complicated by federalist, separatist and (ethnic) nationalist convictions, and I seem to recall there was a whole issue of trying to discern just which Quebec NDP MPs were actually separatists. Suffice to say, that provincial failure still wasn’t enough of a lesson for them, and their only anchor in the province was Boulerice, and now he’s leaving. Avi Lewis has ruled himself out of running in that riding (which they will likely lose), and in Beaches—East York once Nate Erskine-Smith steps down in the coming weeks, meaning he is going to make himself irrelevant much the way that Jagmeet Singh did when he won his own leadership contest. If anything, this makes the job of rebuilding the party’s fortunes even harder, and there aren’t enough Zohran Mamdani gimmicks in the world that they can imitate to fix that.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack on Odesa early Friday killed an elderly couple and wounded more than a dozen others. There was a prisoner exchange yesterday, swapping 193 captured personnel on each side. President Zelenskyy was in Saudi Arabia to develop their new security agreement. Here is a look at the problems facing Chernobyl after drone strikes in the area.

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QP: Just another Liberal

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Another day where the PM was in town but not at QP, while Pierre Poilievre had held a press conference in the Foyer earlier, and he was present. He led off in French, accusing Carney of being another Liberal with rising costs, crime, and “corruption,” before demanding that all taxes be cut on gasoline. François-Philippe Champagne responded by noting the cut in the gas excise tax. Poilievre whined that the question was for the prime minister, whom he declared was “hiding under the table” and received a caution by the Speaker for it, before he said that the reason the PM doesn’t respond because it would expose the illusion he has made thing worse. Champagne pointed out that they are helping Canadians, and that their economic update is coming next week. Poilievre turned to English, and called Carney “just another Liberal” before demanding all gas taxes be repealed. Champagne noted that Poilievre has been nowhere to be seen when they provided relief for Canadians before raising the economic update. Poilievre took a broad swipe at Carney, repeating the “hiding under the table” line, before pointing out that he “snarled” at a female journalist earlier in the day, and then denounced him in general. Hajdu said that if being just another Liberal means helping people, then sure, he’s just another Liberal. Poilievre listed Carney’s supposed sins as being “just another Liberal.” Hajdu tried another tactic and listed Poilievre’s supposed sins as being “just another Conservative.” Poilievre accused her of having imaginary conversations, before he went on a tear about the deficit and “printing money.” Champagne responded with his “take no lessons” line and listed supports they have provided while ensuring “sound fiscal management.”

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she lamented that the tariff crisis had not yet been resolved, and wondered about whether the government would adopt their proposal on wage subsidies for affected industries. Champagne said that they have a strategic fund to help companies with supports, and that foreign exports are up. Normandin then demanded an enhancement to OAS for all seniors, as well as more supports for forestry. Joël Lightbound said that she was right to note the headwinds the country is facing, which is why the government is busy diversifying markets. Jean-Denis Garon took over to lament the planned reduction in health transfers, and said they could pay for it by taxing oil companies and web giants. Marjorie Michel patted herself on the back for how well she works with her Quebec counterpart. 

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QP: Taking swipes about affordability comments

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The PM was in town but elsewhere, and had previously responded to reporters’ questions that morning about his lack of QP attendance as letting his team handle it because they work as a team, which doesn’t excuse his obligations as prime minister when it comes to the exercise of accountability. Pierre Poilievre was also absent, leaving it up to Andrew Scheer to lead off, and he returned to yesterday’s peevish demand that the prime minister recant his previous statement that affordability is the best it’s been in a decade. Patty Hajdu took the opportunity to praise the Canada Summer Jobs Programme, which has opened for the season. Scheer took a swipe about the prime minister not buying his own groceries, and this time, Adam van Koeverden took the opportunity to take a swipe of his own at the Conservatives’ anti-intellectual approach, and Scheer’s falsified credentials in that he never did get his insurance licence. Tim Uppal took over, and read his own script about the prime minister’s assurance about affordability, and Steve MacKinnon took this one, pointing to the conflicts that have created supply disruptions globally, which was why the government lowered the fuel excise tax. Uppal demanded that the government deliver results, to which Wayne Long pointed to how much people will save thanks to the government’s tax cuts so far. Pierre Paul-Hus was up next to read the same script en français, and Joël Lightbound took this one, praising the government’s enhanced GST credit as well as the cut on the fuel excise tax. Paul-Hus tried one more time, and this time Lightbound pointed to how many people in Paul-Hus’ riding benefitted from programmes like dental care. 

Christine Normandin led off for the Bloc, and after noting that it is Earth Day, she pointed out that the government is testing the waters on new pipelines while southern Quebec is facing floods brought on by climate change. Nathalie Provost touted the government’s plan for nature and protecting thirty percent of land and waters. Normandin was not mollified and wanted pro-environment Liberals to speak. Provost insisted that the world is in a precarious place which is why they are working on different levels with their nature strategy. Patrick Bonin took over to encourage people to fight back against pipelines and subsidies for oil companies. Provost repeated her line about working on several levels, and working with Indigenous People while they build and build well. 

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QP: Demanding Carney debate him

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The PM was present today, as were all of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he took issue with a statement that Carney made in March about affordability being the best it’s been in ages. Carney said that what he said was about costs and wages, and that wages are now rising at double the rate of inflation. Poilievre disputed this and listed things that he claims Carney was wrong about, to which Carney noted that they measure affordability using rates and wages, and wages are increasing Faster, while things like rents are decreasing. Poilievre switched to English to lament the high food price inflation, and returned to the comment about affordability being the best its been in years. Carney stated that the record is that since he’s been prime minister, wages have risen faster than inflation, before he plugged the enhanced GST credit. Poilievre again disputed that this was wrong, and Carney again noted that asking rents have been declining, and that wages are increasing. Poilievre again took issue with affordability and demanded Carney acknowledge that, and Carney defended the measures and wage levels. Poilievre continued to insist that Carney was wrong, and Carney again touted the entranced GST credit and their cuts to fuel and income taxes.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he took a swipe at the new Canada–U.S. trade advisory committee before lamenting the issue of tariffs. Carney praised the members of the committee, naming Quebec members. Blanchet demanded temporary measures for companies affected by the latest round of tariffs, and Carney pointed out that these tariffs were global and yes, they are considering temporary measures. Blanchet again worried about the affected sectors, and Carney gave more reassurances. 

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QP: A trio of bad faith assertions

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The PM was in town but otherwise preoccupied, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent, which led Melissa Lantsman to stand up and lament the lack of investment building in the country. Tim Hodgson stood up, suggested she stop the clickbait, and then listed major projects approved in each province. Lantsman dismissed this as nothing actually built (because it can happen overnight), before lamenting the food inflation numbers and demanded the government bring down the cost of government. François-Philippe Champagne got up to list the “good news” of IMF projections, and high Canadian Forces recruitment. Lantsman went on a tear about affordability, to which Patty Hajdu accused the Conservatives of sticking “spokes in the wheels” of Canadians. Pierre Paul-Hus took over in French to slam Carney’s video and the lack of pipelines built of new trade deals. Dominic LeBlanc thanked him for his support of C-5 and noted the projects that are getting underway. Paul-Hus lamented food prices, and Champagne reiterated his “good news” talking points en français. Paul-Hus then mischaracterised the deal with China and falsely claimed Carney had promised a trade deal by now, and LeBlanc got back up to remind them that they are working to improve the situation, which included diversifying trade with other reliable partners and building major projects.

In advance of today's #QP and the inevitable wailing and gnashing of teeth about food price inflation, here is what StatsCan said the biggest driver was last month.Spoiler: It's still climate. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quo…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-04-20T15:07:22.716Z

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she also raised Carney’s video and the lack of a deal with the U.S. as they keep imposing new tariffs. LeBlanc repeated his line about diversifying trade partners and building national projects while understanding the importance of steel and aluminium at home. Normandin demanded ties with the U.S. be strengthened and not discarded (which nobody is actually proposing), and Champagne got back up to note that he was in Washington last week and they are still talking, while pointing to the importance of diversifying trade. Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay lamented that Carney is not consulting enough on his files, to which LeBlanc disputed the premise of the question. 

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QP: Zombie statistics to justify gas tax whinging

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The PM was in town but not at QP for reasons unknown, while Pierre Poilievre was off in Toronto giving another speech to the Canadian Club. That left it up to Luc Berthold to lead off in French, dredging up the false zombie statistic about the number of Canadians who are a mere $200 away from insolvency (guys, that stat doesn’t say what you think it says, and it’s never been accurate), before whining that the government voted down their Supply Day motion on removing all gas taxes (even though the clean fuel standard is not a tax, or even a charge). Steven MacKinnon listed all of the supports for Canadians that the Conservatives voted against, before noting that wages in Canada have been rising at 4.7 percent year-over-year, while that figure is just 3.5 percent in the U.S. Berthold complained that gas is twenty percent cheaper in the U.S. than in Canada, called the government’s policies inflationary, and again made a plea for the government to cut all gas taxes. MacKinnon reminded him that in February (the last month for which there are statistics), inflation was at 1.8%, which is within the Bank of Canada’s target band. Melissa Lantsman took over in English to repeat the same first question, and Tim Hodgson got up to remind her that they already cut gas taxes by 28¢/litre with the consumer carbon levy, and have the enhanced GST credit and income tax cut. Lantsman also complained that their Supply Day motion was voted down, and again all gas taxes be cut, and Hogson noted that while this government cut gas taxes by 28¢/litre, the Americans have not cut theirs at all. Shuvaloy Majumdar took over and made the same plea to cut gas taxes, and this time Sean Fraser got up to expound on the two visions of Canada, where the Conservatives’ was to cut taxes for the wealthy while the Liberals are building a strong economy. Majumdar repeated the falsehood about $200 from insolvency, and Patty Hajdu got up to proclaim how much families are saving thanks to the current government.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she raised the issue of the added aluminium tariffs, to which Dominic LeBlanc appreciated her concern, and he assured her that they were working on the issue, and that he has raised it with this American counterparts. Normandin worried about businesses suffering from this, and LeBlanc repeated his assurances. Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay took over to ask the same again (because they need more clips), and LeBlanc repeated the same assurances yet again.

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Roundup: The thing about windfall taxes

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In the discussion over “pausing” the excise tax on gasoline and diesel, and the Conservatives’ demands that all other fuel charges be scrapped (including the clean fuel standard which is not a charge or a tax), versus the NDP’s call for a price cap and windfall tax, there hasn’t been a lot of discussion about what those will mean.

Enter economist Kevin Milligan, who has a good thread explaining the problem with windfall taxes, and why those advocating for them have a lot more explaining to do when it comes to just how they see them being implemented.

Adam asks a fair question here that has been bandied about. Let me offer two arguments against a windfall tax that I would wager FIN officials would make when advising cabinet on what to do. I'll also offer my own assessment of the two arguments.1/

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:15:37.601Z

Why would FIN argue against an oil/gas windfall tax?FIN Arg #1: Ideally we set taxes in advance and then let firms and people make their choices based on those taxes. Changing taxes <i>ex post</i> risks upsetting investors who would view this as a mark of an unstable unserious country.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:17:39.157Z

My response: Yes, ideally we set taxes ex ante and let firms/people decide what to do. Changing that ex post is like reneging. All true. But I do think FIN overindexes on this argument. Every time we change taxes we literally 'renege' on the status quo./3

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:19:52.099Z

If you took the 'no tax changes ex post' argument completely as sacrosanct, it essentially argues for no tax changes ever. That's silly.I also note the "no ex post changes because we're not a banana republic" argument only gets hauled out when it's a tax *increase*. Why not symmetric? Hmmm…/4

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:21:48.449Z

Why would FIN argue against an oil/gas windfall tax?FIN Arg #2: How do you define a "windfall"? What is this year's profit? What is last year's profit? You realize these are accounting numbers, subject to lots of choice variables for shifting between tax years, right? /5

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:24:09.737Z

Fin Arg #2 cont'd: The concern is that you'd end up with a lot of accounting gaming and not as much revenue as you'd think. A lot of time/effort/dollars spent on creating the tax law to minimize gaming. A lot of time/effort/dollars spent by firms avoiding a windfall tax law./6

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:25:51.216Z

My take on accounting and windfall taxes:I recall reading historical precedents around WW2 (?) that outlined how much effort it was relative to the revenue. I recall that being persuasive. (Don't have the source at my fingertips….)But I take the windfall tax accounting issue seriously./7

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:28:08.463Z

So, my advice to those who advocate for a windfall tax? The thing you could do to overcome government resistance is to look seriously at the accounting issues involved.Chanting slogans is one thing. Overcoming implementation barriers is maybe less fun, but necessary to gettin stuff done./end

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:31:43.152Z

It only boils down to 'let the rich have their way' if you assume that windfall tax advocates aren't capable of getting their accounting shit together. Why be so defeatist?I outlined a path for advocates. If the response is 'gee that sounds hard' that's not my prob.bsky.app/profile/open…

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:40:14.904Z

I'm not here to blow sunshine and tell you that hard things are easy. Hard things are hard. If you're determined you can do them. But if you don't want to do the work then I'm not going to take the proposal seriously.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2026-04-15T15:42:31.333Z

It’s clear that Avi Lewis hasn’t actually thought any of this through. He was on Power & Politics last night and kept trying to handwave away the questions about this plan, and it just kept boiling down to “oil companies bad.” I do think it’s a problem that we’re not seizing on this opportunity to make long-term investments to get off of our dependence on fossil fuels like the French did with their transition to nuclear in the seventies and eighties (because so much European power relied on Middle Eastern fossil fuels up until the oil embargo in the seventies), but nobody seems to want to have that conversation, and Carney has been pretty adamant that he thinks there is a future in the fossil fuel sector. It’s too bad we have no grown-ups who can have a serious conversation about this.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia fired missiles into Kyiv early this morning, killing thirteen so far including twelve-year-old child and wounding several others. This was after more missile and drone attacks were made through the day, which included hitting an apartment building in Odesa. Ukraine’s army has been introducing new drone infantry capabilities, which has resulted in retaking more territory from Russian occupation.

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