Tag Archives: Inflation

Cringe-worthy Seinfeld exchanges over Europe

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The PM was absent, off in Montreal for a digital asbestos announcement and the start of his EU summit. Pierre Poilievre was present, and he led off in French, and he accused the PM of trying to distract Canadians who can’t afford food or housing with the “associate member” conversation with the European Union, which got “rejected,” and noted that nine members of the EU haven’t ratified the existing trade agreement and wants an assurance that they will do so. Steven MacKinnon good up to praise the summit with EU leaders, and said that they were hoping to collaborate on a number of areas beyond trade. Poilievre switched to English to make the same accusation with the dated accusation that it was a “Seinfeld summit—a meeting about nothing.” (Who makes Seinfeld references anymore?) MacKinnon said the only one who knows about Seinfeld is Poilievre who wakes up and lives the same day every day, before praising the summit and the cooperation beyond trade. Poilievre insisted that the recurring nightmare was what Canadians live when they can’t afford to live, blamed government spending on inflation (false), and said the PM acts like George Costanza, running around the office trying to look busy. MacKinnon says that Poilievre acts like Kramer who just walks into the room and says something weird, before he praised free trade and collaboration with Europe, particularly on defence and procurement, as well as cooperating on democracy. Poilievre then got up and smirked, said everybody loves Kramer, and says that what’s weird is the EU’s carbon border adjustments and demanded that our goods not be subjected to them. MacKinnon noted that among the cooperation includes energy and patted himself on the back for west coast LNG going to Germany. Poilievre went into a rant about affordability and called this agreement another PR stunt, to which MacKinnon reminded him that the trade agreement with Europe is in effect even if not completely ratified, and that we are on track to doubling our non-US exports. Poilievre accused then of hubris for praising announcements they have not kept, and he then railed about beef and pork exports and called the summit a “nothingburger.” MacKinnon listed areas of cooperation and threw in a few Carney slogans along the way.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she too worried about the carbon border adjustments and how the federal abandonment of climate policy could negatively impact Quebec. MacKinnon insisted this was misinformed and listed the areas of cooperation once again. Normandin repeated her concerns that even if Quebec continues its carbon prices, their exports could still be exposed to those tariffs. MacKinnon praised how green Quebec’s aluminium sector is, and suggested that if they were concerned about GHGs, they should support high-speed rail. Mario Simard raised the auditor General’s report on pesticide management and how this too could impact trade with Europe. MacKinnon ignored this and just praised areas of collaboration.

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Scoring points off the interest rate decision

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The Bank of Canada raised their policy rate 25 basis points yesterday to 2.5 percent, and as you might expect, the political reaction was bordering on unhinged. The Bank governor’s reasoning was pretty clear—global oil prices are pushing headline inflation up, and while core inflation is on target (meaning the measures that strip out the most volatile components), there is concern that businesses that are currently absorbing the increased fuel costs are going to start passing those costs on through the economy. The rate hike is more of a signal than anything—it can’t do anything about the Strait of Hormuz, but it can send a signal to the economy that the Bank isn’t going to take risings costs lying down, and they’re going to do their part to rein them in. That’s the thing about monetary policy—it’s as  much about sending signals to the market and being willing to back them up with its levers than anything.

For the opposition parties, however, reading apparently isn’t their strong suit. The Conservatives insisted that this was all about the government’s “out of control” spending and deficits, and that’s what is fuelling inflation, all of which is absolute hokum. Tiff Macklem was quite clear in the statement that what’s driving the inflation are global factors, meaning oil prices. The NDP, however, insisted that “This is a clear result of the Liberal government’s failure to get inflation under control.” First of all, managing inflation is the Bank’s job, not the government’s. And second of all, core inflation is on target. Inflation is under control. The spike in the headline number is entirely gasoline prices, which we do not control. And then they took a gratuitous shot about Carney’s initial support for the war in Iran. The cherry on top is that the government is refusing to actually dispute any of the absolutely false things the opposition is saying, and are instead patting themselves on the back for the Bank’s growth projections, because that’ll combat disinformation!

The releases from the Conservatives and NDP are both written from fantasylands that didn't read anything the Bank wrote. The Bank said nothing about deficits or government spending. They did say the source of inflation was global oil prices. Both parties ignored those facts.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-28T20:26:21.043Z

I'm forced to conclude that either our opposition finance critics are illiterate, or they simply lie in order to fit their narratives—likely the latter. Meanwhile, the prime minister is a former central banker but didn't bother to cite the Bank's language in QP today.We are so absolutely boned.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-28T20:26:21.044Z

It is frankly distressing to see just how absolutely economically illiterate the “finance critics” of our opposition parties are. I know that you have narratives that you want to push, but you don’t have to lie to the public to try and make your point. You can be concerned about the size of the deficit without lying that it is driving inflation (when core inflation is on target!) and that it forced the interest rate hike. You can express concerns about the war in Iran pushing up prices without saying that the government didn’t get inflation under control (when again, core inflation is on target! FFS!) This should not be rocket science, and yet, here we are. We don’t have to keep making this the dumbest timeline. These kinds of statements are a choice.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-28T13:08:06.166Z

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My column explores the notion that the BC election is a sign that it’s time for “normie” conservatives to be in ascendance, and why that is not necessarily the case.

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QP: Complete fictions about inflation and interest rates

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The PM was finally present for the first time in two weeks, and all of the other leaders were present. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he blamed “out of control” government spending for rising inflation which is why the Bank of Canada raised interest rates, which is not what the Bank said at all. Mark Carney thanked him for that lesson on monetary policy and pointed to the Bank’s statement that the inflationary factors were coming from outside Canada, and then pointed to projected growth rates. Poilievre insisted that this as an admission that Carney’s policies caused inflation, and that Canadians are the most indebted in the G7, so they would suffer under higher rates. Carney said they needed to reconcile the discrepancies between their statements, and repeated the Growth projections. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his same pronouncement that government spending and deficits were fuelling inflation, and that was the reason rates were rising. Carney repeated that the Bank was clear the causes were global and he cited the various cuts his government has made to spending. Poilievre again proclaimed the falsehood that spending was driving inflation, and Carney repeated the levels of his cuts. Poilievre selectively cited the Bank’s statement and blamed the clean fuel standard, and Carney again pointed out that the Bank’s statements were all on the record, and spoke about the price of diesel. Poilievre again insisted that Carney was out of touch, listed food banks and housing reports, and railed about affordability. Carney responded by listing measures for Canadians that Poilievre voted against. 

Poilievre is blaming government spending on the inflation that raises interest rates. The Bank of Canada was clear that this is because of global forces, especially gas prices. Too bad Carney can’t spell that out. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-28T18:36:00.472Z

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and noted that while Carney was hosting the Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi while the UAE funds the conflict in Sudan, and compared this to the premier of Quebec not being allowed to speak at the EU summit. Carney noted that he gave PSPP a chance to greet the dignitaries and to sit at his table. Blanchet listed other countries with human rights abuses Carney was doing business with but wouldn’t deal with PSPP. Carney insisted they were doing business and raising issues. Blanchet started off on the wrong question, stopped, and restarted by demanding PSPP be allowed to speak at the summit. Carney said that the Quebec delegation already had four meetings, and that this was just the beginning of talks. 

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Poilievre’s plan to fuel inflation

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The July inflation data was released yesterday, which means that Pierre Poilievre had something to say about it, and it was…mind-numbingly wrong and stupid. The data were not terrible—yes, it ticked up to 3.0% because of gasoline prices thanks to Trump’s misadventures in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz (and there was also an effect from World Cup tourism prices in there as well), but core measures (which strip out the volatile categories) are all hovering at two percent, and that’s a pretty good thing. This is what we want. Poilievre, however, wants to say dumb things.

In which Poilievre selectively reads this morning's inflation data in order to support his pre-determined but purely bullshit narrative.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-08-17T14:43:12.309Z

For starters, grocery prices. They are actually at their lowest rate of inflation in months, but when you look at the things driving it (fresh fruit, coffee, beef), all of it has fuck all to do with federal deficits. But that’s what Poilievre keeps his focus on. Federal deficits, and taxes. But the thing is, taxes are disinflationary, because they take available spending money out of the system. So, advocating for a continued or larger “gas tax” cut (and to be clear, they’re not all taxes, and won’t equal 25 cents per litre, which is another lie he keeps telling) is actually an inflationary policy. He is literally advocating for what he doesn’t want. Because of course he is.

Poilievre keeps fancying himself an economic genius because he watches crypto bros on YouTube, but he absolutely does not understand anything he’s talking about, and the tax cut/deregulate ideology he espouses got us into the mess we’re in as a society, where the young people he claims to advocate for can’t get ahead. Doubling down on those measures won’t help young people, but he refuses to change his mind, and when your only plan is to betray the audience you claim to be fighting for, well, I’m not sure what to tell you.

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New episodes released early for C$7+ subscribers. This week I discuss the various legal challenges to the different oaths to the King. #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-08-17T00:14:10.972Z

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Ginning up an faux inflation narrative

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The inflation data for May was released yesterday, and unsurprisingly, the headline number ran high because of gasoline prices, entirely because of the situation that Trump created with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Looking into the data, it’s quite clear that core measures—which strip out volatile food and fuel prices—is right on the Bank of Canada’s target at 2.1 and 2.0 percent (there are two different core measures the Bank of Canada tracks). And yes, food price inflation continues to run hot, and the data shows pretty clearly that it’s supply disruptions—things like tomatoes coming from Mexico, where they planted fewer crops because of US tariffs, and then that smaller crop was affected by weather conditions (read: climate change). Constrained supply means higher prices. This is basic supply-and-demand.

Before Poilievre lights his hair on fire about inflation hitting 3.2% last month, this is pretty much entirely on gasoline prices because of Iran. Core measures remain at 2.1% and 2.0%. And he's going to decry the price of food and blame "Liberal inflation" as opposed to the truth:

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-06-22T13:30:56.569Z

Predictably, Pierre Poilievre came out and blamed “Liberal high taxes, waste, and deficits.” None of those have anything to do with inflation. Taxes (which the Liberals have cut consistently) are disinflationary. The size of the deficit has nothing to do with Trump’s foreign misadventures, or climate change affecting food-producing regions, and yet, Poilievre has a convenient target for everything. Who needs facts when you have a narrative, and a government who refuses to actually push back on any of this, and merely pats themselves on the back for OECD projections.

Just completely ignoring the relevant facts, because he has a narrative.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-06-22T18:21:00.215Z

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2069126743831830583

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2069136495693418894

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-06-22T13:08:01.946Z

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  • My Loonie Politics Quick Take takes issue with the Conservative private member’s bill to take the GST off of used cars, which is both bad policy and bad economics.
  • For National Magazine, I delve into Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision that allows a failed candidate the opportunity to sue the province’s chief electoral officer.
  • My (belated) weekend column on the government unnecessarily jamming complex bills through the Senate for no good reason at all.
  • For National Magazine, I contributed to this look at the next Supreme Court of Canada justice, Glenn Joyal.

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QP: The Clarity Act is clear

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The PM was present today for the only time this week, while Pierre Poilievre was also present. He led off in English, and went on a rant about the Cowichan decision and his deliberate misreading of the litigation directive. Mark Carney declared that they defend private property which is why they appealed the decision. Poilievre carried on with his complete nonsense reading of the litigation directive, and Carney said the only person tossing and turning is Poilievre trying to come up with new ways to fear-monger. Poilievre switched to French to deliver his nonsense claims that it is Liberal taxes pushing up gasoline prices, and Carney pointed out how they already suspended the excise tax and the consumer carbon levy, while Poilievre opposed all measures to help people. Poilievre repeated the same nonsense claim in English, and Carney pointed to changes in refineries since the Harper days, and repeated his same swipe about Poilievre voting against help. Poilievre carried on his rant about how great things were in the Harper days, and Carney pointed to things they are delivering on like higher wages and greater participation of women in the workplace. Poilievre then read some stats from Equifax about people struggling, and Carney patted himself on the back for strength of the economy face of tariffs and global uncertainty.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and demanded Carney respect the referendum questions put forward by provinces. Carney said that he is the prime minister, that he heard back from his advisory council and Alberta’s question doesn’t trigger the Clarity Act, but any question needs to be clear. Normandin went on a rant about “democracy” and demanded the Clarity Act be repealed, to which Carney said that under the Act, the House of Commons needs to consider the clarity of the question and the majority, which is not just fifty percent plus one. Rhéal Fortin took over rail about fifty percent plus one, and claimed it was an “authoritarian overreach,” and Carney said that “the Clarity Act is clear.”

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QP: Resurrecting the “Netflix tax” falsehood

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The PM was in town but away from the Chamber, while Pierre Poilievre was present, and he led off in French, claiming it was an illusion that the war in the Middle East was raising gasoline prices when he claimed it was Liberal taxes and the weak dollar. (Are you kidding me?!) François-Philippe Champagne, in his usual ebullient manner, praised the “good news” of the actions the government has taken to assure affordability. Poilievre then claimed that they were blaming housing prices on Iran (huh?) and demanded the government cut all gasoline taxes. Champagne reminded him of the statements of the International Energy Agency that we are in the worst energy crisis in the history, and exhorted the  opposition to vote for their budget bill. Poilievre switched to English, and he lamented all of the taxes people need to pay, and that the government is planning to triple the “Netflix tax.” (There is no Netflix tax). Champagne decried that the Conservatives have voted against all affordability measures. Poilievre then pivoted to property rights in BC, and falsely claimed the government was forbidden to defend those rights, and Rebecca Alty read her statement that the government has defended fee simple and that they are pursuing the matter in the courts. Poilievre tried again, and Sean Fraser reminded him of the actions they are taken to protect property rights while advancing reconciliation. Poilievre insisted that he just wanted federal lawyers to make protection or property the primary argument, and claimed that they were banned of doing so. Alty read a script about the litigation directive as to why Poilievre is wrong.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and mocked that the federal government is “reviewing” the referendum question in Alberta, and that the Clarity Act is contempt for people and provinces. Dominic LeBlanc said that how is the time to work together to counter the tariff threats from the US, and they were working to show that Confederation works. Normandin was not mollified and went to bat for separatist referendums, and LeBlanc reiterated that they are focused squarely on economic issues. Rhéal Fortin took over to read his own condemnation of the Clarity Act, and LeBlanc repeated his same assurances.

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Roundup: A call to ignore Pathways

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In a sit-down interview with The Canadian Press, prime minister Mark Carney says that an oil pipeline out of Alberta is “more likely than not,” and this doesn’t mean the revived Keystone XL (aka “Bridger Pipeline”). But he’s also not saying anything about Pathways, which is a bit suspicious because he tied the approval to Pathways getting underway, and industry has made it very clear they’re not interested in paying for it.

To that end, who showed up in the op-ed pages of the Globe and Mail but Martha Hall Findlay, former Liberal MP and now head of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, who put on a big show to say that she found it hard to write, but lo, she must recommend that the government “pause” Pathways, because it’s useless on a global scale, and “the world changed.” And then there was more hand-wringing and rationalization that Canada is such a small contributor to global emissions that it doesn’t matter.

The world didn’t change. Facts didn’t change. Climate change didn’t stop with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, so quite frankly, this is bullshit and special pleading. The notion that we don’t contribute enough to global emissions is such a poor argument because it’s a common action problem. We have some of the highest emissions on a per capita basis, and yes, that matters. Hall Findlay was going on about how this is all about ego, and we just want to look like we’re leaders, but guess what—every action matters. And if you think that it’s too expensive to reduce emissions now, well, it’s going to be even more expensive the longer we push it down the road, when the effects are even more entrenched globally. We’re already spending billions of dollars in insurance payouts every year that are directly related to climate. The vast majority of food price inflation is climate-related, even if people don’t want to admit it. Frankly, these arguments of hers are tired and baseless and not worth listening to, no matter how much she insists she still believes in climate action…eventually.

My favourite moment in any oil price shock cycle is when the Very Serious Energy People explain why this — again! — is not the time to give a shit about the climate crisis

— Chris Turner (@theturner.bsky.social) 2026-05-01T15:21:29.234Z

If Canada can make that argument at 1.4% then presumably so can Saudi Arabia (1.5), Iran (1.9) and Japan (2.0).Then I imagine both Indonesia (2.3) and Brazil (2.5) would say, "hey, us too." And at that point, you've ruled out 204 countries accounting for roughly 46% of all national emissions.

— Aaron Wherry (@aaronwherry.bsky.social) 2026-05-01T15:02:42.580Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-01T19:08:02.330Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched yet another attack on port infrastructure in Odesa early Friday, and then launched more than 400 drones in a daytime attack that injured ten people in Ternopil in the west. Ukraine is planning an overhaul of its military rotations, particularly after an outcry over images of emaciated soldiers emerged.

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QP: Demanding Carney debate him

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The PM was present today, as were all of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he took issue with a statement that Carney made in March about affordability being the best it’s been in ages. Carney said that what he said was about costs and wages, and that wages are now rising at double the rate of inflation. Poilievre disputed this and listed things that he claims Carney was wrong about, to which Carney noted that they measure affordability using rates and wages, and wages are increasing Faster, while things like rents are decreasing. Poilievre switched to English to lament the high food price inflation, and returned to the comment about affordability being the best its been in years. Carney stated that the record is that since he’s been prime minister, wages have risen faster than inflation, before he plugged the enhanced GST credit. Poilievre again disputed that this was wrong, and Carney again noted that asking rents have been declining, and that wages are increasing. Poilievre again took issue with affordability and demanded Carney acknowledge that, and Carney defended the measures and wage levels. Poilievre continued to insist that Carney was wrong, and Carney again touted the entranced GST credit and their cuts to fuel and income taxes.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he took a swipe at the new Canada–U.S. trade advisory committee before lamenting the issue of tariffs. Carney praised the members of the committee, naming Quebec members. Blanchet demanded temporary measures for companies affected by the latest round of tariffs, and Carney pointed out that these tariffs were global and yes, they are considering temporary measures. Blanchet again worried about the affected sectors, and Carney gave more reassurances. 

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QP: A trio of bad faith assertions

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The PM was in town but otherwise preoccupied, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent, which led Melissa Lantsman to stand up and lament the lack of investment building in the country. Tim Hodgson stood up, suggested she stop the clickbait, and then listed major projects approved in each province. Lantsman dismissed this as nothing actually built (because it can happen overnight), before lamenting the food inflation numbers and demanded the government bring down the cost of government. François-Philippe Champagne got up to list the “good news” of IMF projections, and high Canadian Forces recruitment. Lantsman went on a tear about affordability, to which Patty Hajdu accused the Conservatives of sticking “spokes in the wheels” of Canadians. Pierre Paul-Hus took over in French to slam Carney’s video and the lack of pipelines built of new trade deals. Dominic LeBlanc thanked him for his support of C-5 and noted the projects that are getting underway. Paul-Hus lamented food prices, and Champagne reiterated his “good news” talking points en français. Paul-Hus then mischaracterised the deal with China and falsely claimed Carney had promised a trade deal by now, and LeBlanc got back up to remind them that they are working to improve the situation, which included diversifying trade with other reliable partners and building major projects.

In advance of today's #QP and the inevitable wailing and gnashing of teeth about food price inflation, here is what StatsCan said the biggest driver was last month.Spoiler: It's still climate. www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quo…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-04-20T15:07:22.716Z

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she also raised Carney’s video and the lack of a deal with the U.S. as they keep imposing new tariffs. LeBlanc repeated his line about diversifying trade partners and building national projects while understanding the importance of steel and aluminium at home. Normandin demanded ties with the U.S. be strengthened and not discarded (which nobody is actually proposing), and Champagne got back up to note that he was in Washington last week and they are still talking, while pointing to the importance of diversifying trade. Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay lamented that Carney is not consulting enough on his files, to which LeBlanc disputed the premise of the question. 

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