Tag Archives: NATO

Roundup: Authoritarian theatre, separatist referendum edition

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Danielle Smith’s attempt to engineer a separation referendum in Alberta went entirely off the rails yesterday in one of the most cynical yet spectacular ways yesterday. The legislative committee that is supposed to make the determination on the petition process met yesterday, in a somewhat desperate move, to consider the Forever Canada petition, which Smith has been poised to weaponise as her referendum because it wouldn’t require First Nations consultation because it’s framed in the positive of remaining in Canada. Never mind that petition author and former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk doesn’t actually want this as a referendum—he wants it to be a vote in the legislature, so that the UCP owns it. Nevertheless, midway through the meeting, the UCP sent out a press release saying that they had agreed to turn this into a referendum, complete with quotes from the chair, when no votes had been taken.

And then all hell broke loose. The UCP sent out a note to disregard the press release, while inside the committee, NDP members were moving points of privilege which will need to be adjudicated by the Speaker of the Assembly. It also turns out that Danielle Smith had booked airtime tonight, so this entirely looks like the fix was in, and that the committee process was merely authoritarian theatre to manufacture consent, so that Smith can continue to placate the separatists in her base. The whole thing is both cowardly on Smith’s part, and just amateurish beyond belief.

Now we know.Smith committed to give separatists a referendum. She pre-recorded her tomorrow’s TV address, before the Legislature committee had a chance to vote on the #ForeverCanadian petition. UCP sent out a press release on a vote that didn’t happen, while they supposedly listened to me#ableg

— Hon. Thomas A. Lukaszuk (@lukaszukab.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T00:17:52.059Z

But there is a point to this amateurishness, which Jen Gerson points out here—these people think that they’re strategic geniuses for engineering conservative victories in Alberta, and so they’re overconfident in their abilities. Jason Kenney was, and lo, the leopards he let into the house at his face, while Smith has tied herself into so many knots to try and placate those same leopards in the hope that they won’t eat their face, while they are staring at her and licking their chops, but she insists that she’s the strategic genius here. None of this is going to end well, in part because these are deeply stupid and unserious people, and the country is going to suffer as a result.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-20T19:08:01.746Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missile, drone and artillery attacks on Dnipro killed two and injured six. Ukraine is bolstering their northern defences over concerns of a planned new attack on Kyiv. Oil refining in central Russia is at a standstill thanks to Ukrainian attacks.

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Roundup: Stupid games with the Snowbirds

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This story about the Snowbirds has ground down my patience with this government. A couple of weeks ago, Conservative MPs and Senators were in the middle of a meltdown over the fate of the aerial demonstration squadron, and we kept being assured that this was nothing, they were going to keep flying, that the Conservatives were misinterpreting the schedule because it only went up to fall, and future dates were typically released later, and there would be more to announce on the 19th, but their future was assured. And media outlets wrote whole stories based on these Conservative meltdowns which had no basis in fact.

And then the 19th comes around, and the defence minister announces that the squadron is being grounded at the end of the summer until the early 2030s until replacements can be acquired, which they are still negotiating (though some of the stories say the replacements are already on order, but they’re still negotiating, so I’m not sure how that works). So, the minister was not exactly being honest when he said that everything was fine, because once the squadron is grounded, it will have to be completely rebuilt once the new planes do arrive, and that could be in five years or it could be in ten (given the way procurements go in this country). When asked, Prime Minister Mark Carney shrugged and said it was a problem he inherited so not his fault, but guys—this is not what you were messaging two weeks ago. You need to own that.

As for the specifics, it seems that in spite of the Trudeau government’s attempt to prolong their lifespan until 2030, the airframes were showing too much wear for them to be safely extended, so they didn’t make it that far. But certain Conservative MPs going on political shows yesterday seem to think that because this money was spent, that the existing jets should keep flying regardless. (That’s not how airframes work!) But yes, Conservatives are correct in pointing out that the replacement process should have started much earlier under the Trudeau government, but no, signing a petition on the Conservative website is not going to change anything (other than, of course, to mine your data). Frankly, everyone has behaved absolutely abominably throughout this whole affair, and it’s one more reason why we can’t have nice things in this country.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-19T19:08:20.600Z

In case you missed it:

  • My story for National Magazine about Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision that creates a tort of intimate partner violence moving forward.
  • My long weekend column on the fact that this government is inept at internet policy, whether it’s lawful access of the massive surveillance needed to age-gate sites.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles struck Chernihiv and Sumy regions, killing four, after previously striking Odesa and Dnipro, as well as Ukraine’s Danube port in Izmail. Ukraine, meanwhile, has struck a major oil refinery in Moscow, and their medium-range strikes are taking out logistics hubs supporting the front lines.

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Roundup: Trying to deflect on forced labour

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There was a lot of talk about newly-minted Liberal MP Michael Ma’s performance at the industry committee, where he questioned a witness about whether she had personally witnessed forced labour in China, in a tactic to try and dismiss her in favour of a witness who was pro-trade in Chinese EVs. Ma later apologised, and there was apparently some confusion over just which region in China he was referring to, but still, it made for a poor clip from committee (and of the CBC reporter chasing him on the Hill), and bad clips would seem to be a cardinal sin in Parliament these days.

This being said, there would seem to me to be a tension in all of this that very few people want to actually discuss, which is the fact that Carney’s “strategic partnerships” that he’s been patting himself on the back for post-Davos speech involve countries that involve forced labour—China and Qatar—while at the same time praising all of the “good, union jobs” that those partnerships will create back home in Canada. This while the Liberals still insist that they opposed forced labour in all of its forms, and that they have strong rules about eliminated forced labour from supply chains. There is a fundamental disconnect that they seem incapable of bridging coherently, because they simply ignore the dissonance, or in Ma’s case, his attempt to throw confusion around it just wound up making him look like an ass.

This is why I wrote my column earlier in the week about the Canadian Ombud for Responsible Enterprise, whose office was designed to look for forced labour in supply chains and call it out, and the fact that Carney has left the office vacant for the past year and will almost certainly smother it in its sleep and scrap the office in the name of budget cuts—so that there is no embarrassment caused over these “strategic partnerships” with forced-labour countries in the name of being “pragmatic” in the post-rupture world of global trade. Ma just gave the government a black eye over this, so we’ll see if they can handle themselves any better in the face of these embarrassing contradictions.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia claims to have taken a village in eastern Ukraine, while Ukraine reclaimed a village in the Dnipropetrovsk region. President Zelenskyy arrived for an unannounced visit to Saudi Arabia, one of the countries Ukraine is supplying drone expertise.

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QP: NATO back-patting and “radical environmentalism”

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The PM was off in Halifax for his military announcement, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent, and attendance was down because this is essentially a Friday as the House is not sitting tomorrow. That left it up to Andrew Scheer to lead off, and he complained that the dollar was not rising with oil prices, and blamed the government’s “radical environmental agenda.” Mysteriously, Jill McKnight rose for the government,  to to answer the question, but to pat herself on the back for the government’s announcement that we have met the former NATO two percent spending target. Scheer said nothing about this, and kept on with his script about affordability, and blamed the industrial carbon price for declining productivity. (Seriously?!) this time, Sherry Romanado got up, and no, she didn’t answer the question either, but delivered the NATO back-patting en français. Rob Moore took over, and continued with the same script about the “radical environmental agenda” driving up the cost of living, to which Tim Hodgson got up to note that he received praise from members of the American cabinet earlier in the week for Canada’s record oil and gas production helping to keep prices down. Moore recited the lines about the industrial carbon price, to which François-Philippe Champagne got up to proclaim the “good news” of the NATO target, as well as their new bill boost home construction. Luc Berthold took over in French to decry the rising food and gasoline prices, and Champagne repeated his same response en français. Berthold then ranted about how everything was the same old Liberals, and this time Mélanie Joly pointed to inflation being stable while wages are rising at a faster rate.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she denounced Air Canada CEO Michael Rousseau, and claimed the government only helps anglophones in Quebec. Marc Miller reminded her that they have invested $4 billion in French across the country, and that the are disappointed by the CEO of Air Canada. Normandin took a swipe at the Anglo speech writers in the PMO and that they are just encouraging more Michael Rousseaus. Miller reminded her that the Liberals have a historic number of Quebec MPs, and the PM has done a lot of work to improve his French. Mario Beaulieu took over and made his own swipe at Rousseau, and Miller reminded him that anglophones do have rights in Quebec.

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Roundup: The dumb mistake of not planning to run for a seat

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We are less than a week away from the NDP leadership race, and once again, we’re hearing incredibly dumb things like the fact that the four candidates who don’t have a seat saying that they won’t be in any hurry to try and get one, never mind that there will soon be a vacancy in Beaches—East York (when Nate Erskine-Smith makes the jump to provincial politics), and it’s a progressive Toronto riding that should be something the NDP could hope to actually win if they tried.

I cannot stress enough that getting a seat at the earliest opportunity is critically important, and we have seen plenty of examples of what happens when a leader doesn’t get a seat. Jagmeet Singh refused for the first year, because he wanted to run in Brampton, and figured that he could just show up for caucus meetings on Wednesdays, and hold a scrum in the Foyer, and that would be just fine, but it wasn’t. He was quickly made irrelevant in the national public discourse, and it wasn’t until he could get a seat—swallowing his pride to run in Burnaby instead—and be in Question Period daily that he at all filtered into the national consciousness and was a relevant player. Likewise, Bonnie Crombie, Ontario Liberal leader, didn’t run for a seat at the earliest opportunity and was irrelevant by the time the election rolled around and just failed utterly. Having a seat matters, and it boggles the mind that nobody understands that.

Meanwhile, it has been noted that this is the first NDP leadership race in well over a generation where there is actual disagreement between the candidates, particularly with Avi Lewis and the rest. And I think it’s more than just different visions, but different tones where Lewis fails to grasp that his tone in the past cost the party seats in parts of the country. And I get that you have pollsters saying that the party shouldn’t discount the fact that there is an audience for Lewis’ message, but I would also point out that much of that message is geared toward extremely online American Democrat fans, where the policy proposals are largely irrelevant to the circumstances in this country, or at least broad swaths of it. It’s somewhat hilarious that there is an absolute blindness to this fact while they chase those votes, ignoring the readily available votes that could be on the table if they actually listened to the people who are supposed to make up their voter base.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-20T22:56:01.423Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian attack on the Zaporizhzhia region killed four, while power infrastructure was knocked out further north.

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Roundup: Justifying ghoulish behaviour with a single study

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Alberta has announced that it is closing its safe consumption sites in Calgary and Lethbridge, citing that they will be “transitioned” to different services like withdrawal beds and addiction clinics, and justified by a single study that used anonymized data to show that the closure of the site in Red Deer didn’t lead to increased overdose deaths or emergency room visits. And there’s a lot to unpack here.

One of the problems is that the province has a bunch of dodgy partnerships with providers for these supposed addiction recovery services that are privately owned, not proven to work, and who have some pretty spotty histories. Nevertheless, the ties to the government are suspicious and reek of collusion and possible corruption, as with so many things in the Danielle Smith government.

The other problem is that this single study, that stands apart from thirty years’ worth of public health research, is emboldening conservatives across the country to claim that this “proves” safe injection sites don’t work. Federal Conservatives are using this in a series of ghoulish demands for the federal government to end its authorizations for these sites, using a bunch of other straw man arguments like the fact that there are no age restrictions on safe consumption sites (because apparently minors who are addicts should just use in an alleyway). Another Conservative MP has been trying to ask gotcha questions about whether fentanyl is safe to inject, never mind that it has pharmaceutical applications (which is part of the problem). It’s stupid and dangerous, but this singular study is emboldening it, and I fear that we’re in for another round of increased overdose deaths as certain provincial governments beyond Alberta take this one study to heart.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-20T13:24:02.456Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones hit two foreign-flagged civilian ships in Odesa. Ukraine has begun to evacuate children from Sloviansk as the security situation deteriorates there. Some 228 Ukrainian drone specialists have now been deployed to five countries in the Persian Gulf to counter Iranian drone attacks.

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Roundup: Myth-busting the carbon price on diesel

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For months, we’ve been hearing the Conservatives blame the industrial carbon price and the clean fuel standard for rising food prices, often citing the so-called “Food Professor” as the source of these claims. They’re hilariously wrong, but just how wrong? Energy economist Andrew Leach does the math, and demonstrates where the “Food Professor” went so wrong. (Some of these are threads, so be sure to click through because they were too long to replicate in this post).

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2033225831443816578

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2033324064933347805

And the longest explainer thread is here:

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2033309960902426664

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2033309985384628491

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 430 drones and 68 missiles at Ukraine on Saturday, and six people were killed, five of them in Kyiv. President Zelenskyy says that Ukraine wants money and technology in return for the anti-drone assistance they are providing to countries in the Gulf region.

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Roundup: Trying to politicize the Order of Canada

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Because everything needs to be stupid all of the time, Conservative MP and obnoxious windbag Andrew Lawton started circulating a petition in support of his nomination of Don Cherry to the Order of Canada. The Order of Canada advisory board does not respond to petitions. It is an arm’s-length body chaired by the Chief Justice in order to apolitically weigh the nominations for the Order. I make this point because the honours system in Canada is held by the Crown in order to keep it apolitical (which is one reason why constitutional monarchy is superior). Lawton circulating this petition, which is being signed and championed by members of his caucus, including his leader, is the very definition of politicising these honours for the sake of culture war bullshit—after all, Cherry eventually lost his lucrative CBC gig because of racist commentary.

But because Lawton was so keen to gin up the culture war grift, he inadvertently pissed off members of his own caucus—specifically, most of the Quebec members, who are not fans of Cherry because Cherry also spent his career insulting Quebec and European players, and they are not looking to forgive and forget. And now this is spiralling because culture war grifting is by its very definition stupid and self-defeating. But when your political fundraising is tied to this same grifting complex, is it any wonder that this kind of self-own happens? And will they learn any lessons from this? Of course not.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-03-13T13:24:01.664Z

Carney-versary

It’s the one-year anniversary of Mark Carney being sworn-in as prime minister, so there are a few retrospectives. The National Post takes stock of what we know and don’t know about him, and the fact that there are still a few mysteries. JDM Stewart enumerates the expectations placed on Carney that he will need to deliver on. Althia Raj talks to 33 sources about that first year in office, and it’s a pretty honest assessment of the trends both good and bad he has demonstrated.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian shelling killed one and wounded six in Dnipropetrovsk region, and an attack in Zaporizhzhia region injured four. President Zelenskyy warned that pausing Russian oil sanctions will only prolong the war.

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Roundup: Another call for NEP 2.0

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Pierre Poilievre has written another letter to the prime minister, this time demanding the creation of a strategic oil reserve like other countries have, never mind that unlike other countries that have said reserves, we are a net exporter and not a net importer (and yes, the US is now a net exporter, but they were not always, which is why they have a strategic reserve). The most ironic thing? This is just one more example of Conservatives demanding a redux of the hated National Energy Programme that Pierre Trudeau tried to launch in the late seventies, after the global oil crisis that happened then.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2032212730762166778

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2032122736475337196

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2031814419584520455

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2031815720108257417

Of course, part of this has to do with Poilievre’s fantasy notion that such an oil stockpile, along with critical minerals, is going to be how he gets leverage over Trump in trade talks, and that it can be used to bolster allies—but only allies with whom we have tariff-free trade agreements. Never mind that it is unlikely to persuade Trump to abandon tariffs, which he loves. Never mind that he has no plan for how to pay for such a stockpile, and he would need to fund some kind of an oil arbitrage agency. It’s facile, and it’s deeply cynical, particularly because included in this demand are once again the insistence that we abolish environmental laws, because Poilievre has convinced himself that they’re just one big con, and that it’s a bunch of environmental elites somehow profiting off of said laws (because apparently there are no costs to climate change, and it’s all just in our imaginations).

https://twitter.com/coreyhoganyyc/status/2032214070892642460

Meanwhile, the Canadian Climate Institute published a report that says that once the industrial carbon price reaches minimum price of $130 per tonne, that it would effectively add fifty cents to a barrel of oil, in direct contravention to the pronouncements of doom that Poilievre and the Conservatives keep insisting that said price is doing to food prices and the economy. This after certain pundits claimed it would add $20 per barrel, which is of course nonsense.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2031860654190281176

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2032152971174428885

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian drones hit an oil pumping station in Russia’s Krasnodar region. Ukraine signed a joint defence procurement with Romania, that includes the production of drones.

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Roundup: The Tumbler Ridge fallout

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Overnight, the messages of condolences for Tumbler Ridge came, from the King, as well as world leaders. Prime Minister Mark Carney cancelled his planned travel to Halifax and then the Munich Security Conference, and flags on all federal buildings were lowered to half-mast, where they will remain for seven days. Sittings in both the House of Commons and the Senate were cancelled, as were all other parliamentary business, but both Chambers still met for a few minutes to offer speeches of condolences for the victims.

Slowly, facts started to come out, along with stories of students barricading themselves in classrooms, and eventually, the identity of the shooter was confirmed, but not before a lot of disinformation was spreading over social media. Before any details were known, far-right sources were already claiming that the shooter was trans, because this has become a go-to far-right meme because they are desperate to scapegoat trans people for “far-left violence,” and so on, even though the cases of trans people involved in mass killings are vanishingly small. And when it was confirmed that the shooter was indeed trans, well, you can hear the far-right just salivating over this news. It was also confirmed that the police had previous contact with the shooter over mental health issues, and guns had been seized from the property and then returned, and that the shooter had an expired firearms licence (at eighteen, because apparently you can get a licence as young as twelve), but the investigation continues as to the source of the weapons involved.

Within hours, we already had an elected official—B.C. MLA Tara Armstrong—blaming the Tumbler Ridge school shooting on gender-affirming care.

— Mel Woods (@melwoods.me) 2026-02-11T14:59:47.269Z

Unfortunately, I fear that this is going to turn up the rhetoric against trans people in this country as the American culture war/fascist project leaks over the border and poisons our discourse. The Anti-Defamation League has found search histories to indicate that the shooter has an interest in online gore, guns, and white supremacy, so this could point to the kinds of online nihilism that we have seen in other mass shootings in the US, for what it’s worth. But I just worry that this is going to provide ammunition for the likes of Scott Moe and Danielle Smith in justifying their anti-trans legislation, and that it will give Pierre Poilievre and members of his caucus permission to more gratuitously target trans people more than they already have been, including in the last election. Remember that in the history of fascism, they come for trans people first, then queer people, and down the list it goes. Don’t let them engage in this kind of scapegoating.

It's going to be bad.Really, really bad.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-11T23:59:07.097Z

Half-mast over Centre Block.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-02-11T21:04:45.999Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Kyiv is under another massive Russian assault, following attacks on Bohodukhiv in the east, and an attempted attack on Lviv that air defences intercepted. Air defences around Kyiv are being bolstered.

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