You may have heard time and again that some 85 percent of goods traded with the US are covered under the New NAFTA and are not exposed to the new 35 percent tariffs, but that number could actually be misleading (and variable depending on who’s talking). In actual fact, that 85 percent figure is trade that is eligible to be compliant with New NAFTA rules, but a lot of it actually isn’t, because a great deal of that trade was simply done without the compliance with the New NAFTA rules because it was easier for many businesses just to pay the old tariff rates because there are significant costs to be compliant with the New NAFTA rules. That calculation has changed now with the Trump tariffs, and a lot of businesses are scrambling to get their compliance certification, but for many small businesses, it’s incredibly hard to do because they don’t have the staff or resources to do so. This means that the tariffs could be biting harder than some people are saying.

Meanwhile, media outlets like the CBC have been trying to get an answer from prime minister Mark Carney or his office about where he stands on the 2030 climate targets, and lo, they cannot get one. Which is not great considering how much Carney professed to be trying to get Canada and the world taking climate change seriously. And in the time since, he’s eliminated the consumer carbon levy (which was working to reduce emissions), and has given himself permission to violate all kinds of other environmental laws through the giant Henry VIII clause in Bill C-5, so it’s not exactly sending a signal that he’s too interested in that 2030 target, even though it was already going to more effort to achieve it than the Trudeau government was making. It’s not great, considering that we’re still living in a climate emergency, regardless of the tariff situation.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian bomb strikes in Zaporizhzhia have injured at least twelve. Three people swimming in a restricted area off the coast of Odesa were killed by an explosive object, likely an unexploded mine (which is why the area is off-limits). Unsurprisingly, president Zelenskyy has rejected any kind of “land swap” deal made without the involvement or consent of Ukraine.

Good reads:

• Canada joined international partners to condemn the planned takeover of Gaza City.
• The RCMP union wants the federal government to relax residency requirements to become officers, citing hopes of recruiting from the US, UK and Australia.
• First Nations in Ontario and the Manitoba Métis Federation are asking why the Métis Nation of Ontario is getting federal funding when their legitimacy is dubious.
• Here is an explainer on the claims that Canada is still sending arms to Israel in spite of a halt made in 2024.
• Afghan Canadians are calling on the government to speed their family members’ refugee claims processing before they are sent back from neighbouring countries.
• Kevin Carmichael delves into the jobs numbers, what they’re saying about our resilience in the face of the trade war, and the scars it’s leaving on youth.
• Philippe Lagassé offers a reminder that there is a bigger picture of planning when it comes to how the government plans to speed defence procurement.
• My weekend column looks at the Conservatives’ Canadian Sovereignty Act proposal, and finds it curiously anti-market economy, which they claim to cherish.

Odds and ends:

Want more Routine Proceedings? Become a patron and get exclusive new content.