With the prime minister back in Canada, a couple of additional things were made known about the meeting with Trump, and one of them was the fact that the “energy” portion of their conversation involved Mark Carney floating the possibility of reviving the Keystone XL pipeline. For those of you unaware, this is entirely an American decision—all of the infrastructure on the Canadian side of the border is pretty much in place, and this project was never in contention. The Trudeau government supported it, but the resistance was on the American side of the border, not only from environmental concerns, but also because there were conspiracy theories developing in places like Nebraska that this was a secret ploy to drain their aquifers. No, seriously. Nevertheless, this is something that the proponent abandoned after Biden rescinded the permits (even though part of the network was built and renamed), so it would need someone to pick it up again.
Meanwhile, US commerce secretary Howard Lutnick spoke virtually at a Eurasia Group event in Toronto, and said that there will be no tariff-free auto deal with Canada, that the most we can hope for is a relationship around auto parts, and that Canada needs to get used to coming in second place to the US. Lutnick also expressed a desire to replace the New NAFTA with bilateral deals rather than a trilateral agreement with Mexico. When Carney later addressed the same event virtually, he said that the government will come to some bilateral agreements with the US, and spoke of “granular discussions” around steel and aluminium tariffs, but didn’t address these comments, just as he didn’t address the reports of Lutnick’s remarks during QP.
It’s hard to know what to make of any of this. After insisting that there was a “rupture” in our trade relationship, this is yet one more proposal to deepen integration and reliance on the American market…but it’s also probably the most viable pipeline for Alberta (though there are proposals to optimise the capacity of the Trans Mountain Expansion that would increase its maximum capacity for west coast exports—not that it’s anywhere near capacity at the moment). On the other hand, if they want to pay for our oil, and also pay their own tariffs to do so, then why not take their money? None of this is going to stop Danielle Smith or the Conservatives from demanding that Carney rip up all of the government’s environmental legislation so that they can crank up production with no consequences (even though there are absolutely environmental consequences that are getting more and more expensive each year), and this isn’t going to create that many jobs in the sector, even if production is increased, given that they are increasingly relying on automation and have been since the last price crash in 2014. But everything is stupid all the time, so this is no exception.
effinbirds.com/post/7804636…
Ukraine Dispatch
President Zelenskyy says that Ukrainian forces are inflicting heavy losses on the Russians in a counter-offensive in the Donetsk region.
Good reads:
- Mark Carney is calling for swift implementation of the tentative proposed peace agreement between Israel and Hamas.
- Sean Fraser has rejected the five premiers’ demand he withdraw the federal factum on the Notwithstanding Clause case at the Supreme Court. (As he should).
- Fraser has also rejected the Conservatives’ demand to abolish birthright citizenship.
- David McGuinty is talking about missile defence cooperation, which is mostly just code for NORAD modernisation.
- Gary Anandasangaree has tabled the revised omnibus border bill, and while it takes out the lawful access portions, it retains the provisions that violate migrant rights.
- Germany’s armament secretary was in Ottawa, and talked about cooperating on maritime drones, both surface and subsurface.
- The Logic takes a look at the growing trend of investor ownership of farmland in Canada, and why there are potential issues with the growth of the sector.
- Here is a sampling of the debate in the legal community over the new Supreme Court of Canada ceremonial robes (which cites my story in National Magazine).
- Here is a look at some of the registered gifts Carney has received from both world leaders and leaders here in Canada.
- Don Davies is trying to thump his chest about the upcoming budget vote.
- Cambell River, BC, city councillor Tanille Johnston says she will run for the NDP leadership, and to be the first Indigenous woman to do so.
- Rather than building housing, Scott Moe wants to micromanage Moose Jaw’s homeless shelter instead. (Honest to Hestia you guys…)
- Stephen Saideman gives a reality check on the latest round of “Golden Dome” talk and why Canadians shouldn’t be panicking about it.
Odds and ends:
For National Magazine, I preview the Supreme Court of Canada’s fall docket.
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Jean Charest was on Power and Politics yesterday talking about a partnership with the US. How did we get from a rupture with the US to a partnership.
How long can Carney act like economics is the only thing that matters, with all the truly frightening things going on down there. He needs to think about what it does to the Canadian psyche to watch him grovel in the White House and not address Canadian people and businesses.
I never thought I’d say this, but I wish Harper was prime minister. At least he believed Canadians could take a hit. Or, honestly, Chrystia Freeland.
Don’t forget that Harper urged capitulation during Trump 1.0 during the NAFTA renegotiations.