The whole thing about Government House Leader Steve MacKinnon openly going on media to decry that they don’t have enough votes to pass the budget is turning into a very tiresome bit of melodrama in Parliament, now that every party is trying to mug for the camera on it. The Conservatives say they want a hard cap on the deficit (which is far below what they promised in their own election campaign), plus the destruction of environmental programmes like the industrial carbon price under the bullshit excuse that it’s causing food price inflation. The Bloc say they want to negotiate, but presented a list of “non-negotiables” which are both expensive and foolhardy, like a bunch of transfers with no strings attached (because premiers have never taken that money and spent it on other things or delivered tax cuts instead. Looking at one Jean Charest most especially). And the NDP say they want to see the budget first, but are making noises about how they don’t want austerity.

And so, the threats are now in place—or blackmail, as some have termed it. MacKinnon’s new line in Question Period has been about how he hopes the opposition doesn’t send Canadians to a Christmas election, which is not exactly subtle. Andrew Scheer rushed out to the Foyer after QP to breathlessly decry that the Liberals are trying to engineer an election with their budget, which is overplaying things just a little, especially considering that the Conservatives, as official opposition, would never vote for the budget in any case, even if their demands were actually reasonable (which they’re not). That leaves either the Bloc to swallow themselves whole in accepting anything less than their unreasonable “non-negotiables,” or the NDP to pretty much debase themselves by once again propping up the Liberals, even though they have absolutely no choice because they have no leader and the party’s coffers are completely bare and they can’t even mortgage their office building for a second time to pay for an election as they have no way of currently paying off the last one. The government knows this. They are also not looking like they want to get into bed with the NDP yet again, after they pretty much derailed the government’s agenda in the last parliament with the supply-and-confidence agreement that the NDP couldn’t be bothered to live up to their own end of. Nobody wants an election (and you have a bunch of Liberals being a bit theatrical about this), and it’s not going to happen, but instead, we’re going to have to live through this dog-and-pony show for the next five weeks or so. Gods help us.

effinbirds.com/post/7810072…

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-29T13:25:05.419Z

Meanwhile, it looks like the budget leaks are starting early, as Senior Sources™ are talking about cuts to the civil service that go beyond attrition, and more aggressive capital cost write-downs. As well, François-Philippe Champange and Rechie Valdez said that there will still be some funding for women’s organisations and for security at Pride events, but this still means cuts to other programmes. Tim Hodgson announced millions for clean tech projects, including four carbon capture projects. (Here is the updated tally of budget promises to date).

Ukraine Dispatch

Putin claims that Russian troops have encircled the cities of Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, which Ukrainian officials vigorously deny. They are, however, struggling in Pokrovsk, which is strategically valuable.

Good reads:

• Mark Carney and Trump were at a dinner hosted by the president of South Korea, but didn’t talk to one another because Trump is still throwing a tantrum.
• Governing documents for the new special operating agencies Carney has been standing up are being kept secret, so we don’t know their governance.
• Immigration officials don’t know when the immigration levels plan will be released, and whether that will be part of the budget packager or not.
• Canadian ambassador to the US Kirsten Hillman says she’s still talking to American officials in spite of the trade talks being terminated.
• US ambassador Pete Hoekstra launched an expletive-laced rant to Ontario’s trade representative, and keeps demonstrating why he needs to be PNGed.
• The head of the Royal Canadian Navy says that part of the submarine procurement contract will need to include domestic maintenance capabilities.
• CBC got a look at the redacted version of the government’s agreement with Stellantis, but no clarity remains on the overall job guarantees.
• Saab is considering Canada as a place to help assemble more Gripen fighter jets to fulfil Ukraine’s 100-plane order, given their existing partnership with Bombardier.
• Leaders of Cowichan tribes in BC issued a release to correct the disinformation circling about the court decision on their Indigenous Title.
• Courts across the country are asking the federal government to increase their complement of federally-appointed judges to manage higher caseloads.
• The head of Stellantis was at the Commons’ industry committee to defend the decision to move production from Brampton to the US.
• Here is an explainer of the dispute in Quebec with doctors over the proposed new billing system.
• Doug Ford’s government signed an agreement with one of the First Nations in the Ring of Fire region to build a road to the area, but others want federal assessments.
• The proposed riding redistribution in Alberta will see a couple of more seats for Edmonton and Calgary, a few merged rural ridings, but more “rurban” ridings.
• Kevin Carmichael worries about the government welcoming American investment in the mining sector after we chased out the Chinese, given the direction of the US.
• Carmichael also parses the Bank of Canada’s rate decision, and their economic forecast which is not a recession, but not much good otherwise.
• My column points out that, every other one of Doug Ford’s proposed electoral reforms aside, it’s actually a good thing to get rid of “fixed” election dates.

Odds and ends:

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