Ontario premier Doug Ford announced that his government would be launching a study about a potential new west-east pipeline, that could either head to existing refineries in Sarnia, or ports along the Great Lakes, Hudson Bay or James Bay. This sounds a lot like it’s going to be a waste of time and money because contrary to what Danielle Smith likes to think, the oil and gas industry has been irrevocably altered since 2014-15, and there is very little demand for these options. Enbridge isn’t going to want to strand its existing pipeline network running through the US, in spite of the arguments about energy security to build a (longer, more expensive) line on Canadian soil, and using northern ports makes no sense as they are only good for a few months of the year when demand its lower.

Energy economist Andrew Leach released a new paper yesterday that takes a look at the case for whether we need another pipeline, and it puts a lot of this in perspective. The oil market has changed since the major price drop in 2014, and American demand has fallen down a lot. While there might be a case for another pipeline to the Pacific, the timelines involved mean running the risk of stranding assets as global demand falls off. Keystone XL, if revived, is likely simply to be used for re-export at the Gulf Coast, while the eastern Canadian market is already well served, and would likely mean more transportation costs, and Alberta would see bigger discounts as compared to world prices. Danielle Smith says that the industry can double production, but that’s not what industry is saying, and more pipelines run the risk of eroding the value of oil, particularly as the rise of electric vehicles and heat pumps push down demand.

One of the other points that the paper makes is that for as much handwringing as there is about how long it takes projects, most of the delays that people point to were regulatory shortfalls and not structural delays. When proponents try to cut corners, or not do proper Indigenous consultations, that is what leads to court challenges and delays, not the actual regulatory system itself, but that’s an inconvenient narrative for certain players. These are things we need to be more cognisant of, and call bullshit on, as the drumbeat for “just one more pipeline” or even “a pipeline in every direction” get more intense.

effinbirds.com/post/7808260…

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-30T14:05:46.292Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched sustained drone and missile attacks on Ukraine’s power infrastructure early Thursday, and killed at least three people. Two others were killed in a bomb strike on a thermal power plant in Sloviansk. Ukrainian forces are bolstering their defences in Pokrovsk as Russian forces have entered the city.

Good reads:

• Mark Carney is expected to meet with Xi Jinping today, so here are seven things to watch for from that meeting. Carney toured a new South Korean submarine.
• Tim Hodgson is dropping more hints that the government’s environmental strategy is heavy on carbon capture and possibly doing away with the emissions cap.
• Lina Diab says that the trigger for the powers to revoke immigration applications in the border bill was intentionally left undefined for maximum discretion. (Seriously?)
• Patty Hajdu says that the government will tighten loopholes used by the trucking industry to no longer allow them to classify drivers as independent contractors.
• Contra the Government House Leader, David McGuinty says he has “every confidence” the budget will pass. Here is the updated tally of promises.
• The government is pledging $7 million in hurricane relief for Jamaica, Haiti and Cuba after this week’s category 5 storm.
• Chief of Defence Staff General Jennie Carignan made an official apology on behalf of the military for their history of racial discrimination.
• The RCMP Civilian Review and Complaints Commission has been without a chair for months, and the government has no timeline for including CBSA in its mandate.
• The head of the Royal Canadian Navy says he’s not looking for the new submarines to be built in Canada (because we do not have the capacity or capability to do that).
• The Centre for Cyber Security says that “hacktivists” (possibly pro-Russian) have been targeting water, energy and agricultural facility networks.
• FINTRAC says they have been passing along actionable intelligence to law enforcement for combatting fentanyl production and trafficking.
• Emails show that employees at CSIS were glad that the new director acknowledged systemic problems within the organization and committed to culture change.
• The Correctional Investigator says plans for a $1.3 billion prison hospital in New Brunswick could be better spent bolstering provincial systems.
• G7 energy and environment ministers meeting in Toronto agreed on the need to diversify critical mineral sourcing and refining, which is an opportunity for Canada.
• National Bank denies the claim they denied a loan in Richmond because of the Cowichan Tribes title decision. (Racists are really going to town on this decision).
• AFN leadership says that the federal government has been developing their new climate plan behind closed doors, with no Indigenous consultation.
• Here is a look at the problem of ongoing underfunding in national sports organisations in Canada.
• Senator Kim Pate is once again trying to pass legislation to end solitary confinement, no matter how Correctional Services has rebranded it.
• Opposition MPs are calling on the government to make the governing documents for their new special agencies public.
• Unsurprisingly, the Conservatives and NDP are trying to ensure they don’t accidentally topple the government over the budget.
• Pierre Poilievre gave a “no more sacrifices” speech to a young audience in Toronto, but is just pitching more austerity and deregulation that created the mess we’re in.
• Quebec’s social services minister resigned over the government’s bill to reform doctors pay, but Legault says he is moving ahead regardless.
• Patricia Treble explains the official ousting of the former Prince Andrew, and his loss of all titles and honours.
• Alex Muir maps out the various factions of MAGA and how each of them treats Canada, as a way out outlining where and how to engage them.
• Justin Ling posits that it’s good that we don’t have a new trade deal with the US, because Trump is only looking for subservience, and needs to be reined.

Odds and ends:

Andrew loses EVERYTHING — title, styles, home. He was born Prince Andrew, became the Duke of York, and is now Andrew Mountbatten Windsor

— Patricia Treble (@patriciatreble.bsky.social) 2025-10-30T19:09:41.445Z

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