Category Archives: Political Roundup

What’s going on in Canadian politics

Roundup: Playing gotcha with the leaders

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Yesterday had no presser from prime minister Justin Trudeau, but did have a ministerial presser featuring Marie-Claude Bibeau and Deb Schulte. Bibeau laid out additional measures and funding for employers of temporary foreign workers in the agri-food sector so that they can properly quarantine those workers when they arrive, and eventually properly explained the measures taken with the arrivals that the Bloc lit their hair on fire about on Saturday (which the government could have done three days ago had they been more competent in their communications). Schulte spoke about the new federal guidelines for long-term care facilities, but because it’s provincial jurisdiction, they’re hoping the provinces implement said guidelines (but no, they don’t really have any levers to force them because of the constitutional division of powers).

Of course, all anyone could talk about today was the fact that Justin Trudeau *gasp* went to see his wife and kids at Harrington Lake (where they have been staying since Sophie Grégoire Trudeau’s recovery) over the weekend, which people claim is in contravention to public health dictates. Erm, except that’s not really true because Harrington Lake is an official residence that is 20 minutes outside of Gatineau. It’s a gods damned suburb where people live year-round. It’s not cottage country where you have small populations and poor public health services that people are attempting to flee to and exposing the locals when they raid the area store on the way up. That was the behaviour that Public Health was warning against, but hey, let’s try to play gotcha.

And then there was Andrew Scheer, who decided to bring his wife and kids with him back to Ottawa on the government jet sent to pick him up for the Saturday sitting. It was supposed to be Elizabeth May, Carla Qualtrough and Scheer, where they could each physically distance on the plane, but with Scheer bringing his family (to spend the rest of the current pandemic period at Stornoway rather than in Regina, where they had been) at the last minute, and May and Qualtrough opted not to be dicks about saying no. (May and Qualtrough were flown back to BC after Saturday, for the record). It may say something about Scheer’s particular sense of entitlement, and that perhaps he should have made arrangements clearer beforehand so perhaps a different plane could have been sent, but the accusations between partisan camps over this is about as mature as we’ve come to expect during a global pandemic.

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Roundup: Disconnected speeches before swift passage

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The daily routine of our pandemic times got a bit of a shake-up this morning as the ministerial presser took place at 11:15 instead of the prime minister’s, and topics included questions on temporary foreign workers being quarantined (or not), and discussions with the provinces about taking action on long-term care facilities, which have been hit hardest by this pandemic.

Shortly thereafter, the skeleton parliament met for its emergency legislation deliberations, if we can call it that. Justin Trudeau led off, raising the history of Vimy Ridge, his own grandfather’s service of going to war while still serving as an MP, and talking about how we needed to protect the Greatest Generation who are now in these long-term care facilities, vulnerable to the pandemic. Andrew Scheer followed with his own address, raising the spectre of the size of the deficit before patting himself on the back for all of the suggestions he’s offered the government this package. The other leaders followed in turn, before the Commons resolved itself to committee of the whole to question ministers in a quasi-Question Period for a lengthy period (the only real news being that Carla Qualtrough stated that they were looking at how to ensure that seasonal workers would also be able to benefit from the CERB), followed by speeches which seemed terribly disconnected from the substance of the bill. In fact, when the speeches ended, and they passed the bill at all stages by unanimous consent, it could be quite noticeable that they didn’t actually debate the bill itself – merely the current pandemic situation.

https://twitter.com/AdamScotti/status/1249050364864856065

The bill then headed to the Senate, where the only minister that Senators grilled for a couple of solid hours was Bill Morneau and his senior associate deputy minister, again largely on the generalities and not the specifics of the bill. Once Morneau left, they adopted the bill at Second Reading and then moved to the speeches during Third Reading, and it seems to me that pretty much every senator present got their own turn, some of them more disconnected from the bill than others. Eventually it too passed, and went on for a swift royal assent. The Senate did come to an agreement on two committees to meet virtually to provide some oversight – now that they allow non-affiliated senators to sit on them – as well as agreed to strike a special committee later on to provide a definitive post mortem on the pandemic.

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Roundup: Back-end accountability and second guessing

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Even though Good Friday is normally a day where the whole of Ontario shuts down as owing to its strong Protestant roots, prime minister Justin Trudeau nevertheless carried on with his daily presser, talking about how the CERB and the Canada Emergency Business Accounts were now online, and that the wage subsidy was on the way. He also said that his Saturday address would be in the House of Commons instead of at Rideau Cottage, and then he would be spending Sunday and Monday with family, so there will be a brief respite from daily pressers (which have been solid for nearly a month now). He also spoke about his teleconference with the premiers, and upon questions about it, stated that no, they were not looking to invoke the Emergencies Act, and it was the very last thing they wanted to do (so maybe stop asking about it). During the Q&A, he was asked about the G20 energy ministers’ meeting and noted that there had been a decision around production cuts, and with regards to the next Bank of Canada governor, the process was ongoing and they had made no decision on next steps.

During the ministerial briefing shortly thereafter, employment minister Carla Qualtrough said that CRA would deal with the issue from there end where some people got double payments (apparently because they may have applied twice out of confusion) rather than relying on people to call in, and that the accountability measures in this programme were built in on the back-end, in order to speed through the processing of these benefits to those who need them. As well, Indigenous Services minister Marc Miller said that the additional funds to Indigenous communities for the pandemic were flowing, and that they will work together with individual communities and First Nations about what they need.

I’m also concerned with the burgeoning proliferation of stories questioning how quickly the government moved early on – particularly around things like travel bans and quarantine measures. One of there reasons, illustrated by the video here, is that this novel virus has proven to work faster and much deadlier than other epidemics we’ve seen in our lifetime. We’re still in the early phases of this pandemic, so it may be a bit early to second-guess things, given that we were following best practices, and travel bans are generally ineffective because people skirt them and don’t report when they are symptomatic because they don’t want to get in trouble for skirting the ban. This pandemic is unlike any we’ve had before, so it’s hard to start demanding why we weren’t better prepared, given that we were prepared for what we were used to expecting, and that should be something we should keep in mind.

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Roundup: Dire stats as Parliament is recalled

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It was a very busy morning – first, Statistics Canada released the March job figures, which were dismal – 1.01 million jobs lost, massive reductions in hours worked, but also (which everyone didn’t really report) that most of these jobs will likely come back once the pandemic measures are over with, which is significant. Following that, the federal Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, released some of the federal modelling on the course of the pandemic, which put everyone into a hot and bothered state.

When prime minister Justin Trudeau held his daily presser, he largely played the role of empathiser in chief – yes, these are all grim numbers, but we’ll get through them together. More to the point, we could be in this until summer, so it’s time to get used to our new normal, particularly if there are subsequent waves that follow this one (though those ones would likely not be as severe and wouldn’t require the same measures like the current lockdown – hopefully). He did also say that he respected parliament but then started making excuses for why he wanted a virtual one, and nope. Not going to fly, sorry.

It was announced later in the day that Parliament will be back on Saturday – 12:15 for the Commons, 4 for the Senate, which likely means Royal Assent by the time the day is over. That means that we’ll have yet more emergency legislation that gets maybe three hours of “debate” in the House of Commons, and that once again all of the negotiations have been done behind closed doors, and there will be no public record about what kind of amendments were requested and agreed to, which serves no one’s interests, particularly those of Canadians.

[Maclean’s has a new Q&A with Dr. Isaac Bogoch on questions people have about the pandemic]

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Roundup: More flexibility, no candour

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For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau announced that they were making their wage subsidy more flexible so that more employers can benefit, and that they were making changes to the Canada Summer Jobs Programme so that they will extend the work period to the end of February 2021 and subsidise the full wage. He also said that he was going to be attending Cabinet in person, his period of self-isolation now over, but that he would still continue to work from home most of the time. During the Q&A portion, the question came up for him a couple of times, and again during the ministerial presser, about why the government didn’t go with the “send cheques to everyone” model, and both Trudeau and Jean-Yves Duclos gave lousy responses. Trudeau said that they looked at different designs, and figured that the CERB was the best way to reach the largest number of affected workers, while the wage subsidy would keep people connected to their jobs, and with those in place, they could look at filling the gaps that people still fell through. Duclos acknowledged “holes” in the social security system that they were working to address and hoped that they would have a better understanding of those coming out of the crisis.

The problem with these responses is that they aren’t what is needed. They’re talking points that stick to happy and good news elements but they don’t offer the kind of candour that is needed around capacity issues and the fact that there is no magic database that has everyone’s SIN and address. You literally cannot just send money to everyone, and cutting cheques to the whole country would literally take months. (More from professor Jennifer Robson on those challenges here). And this lack of candour is a problem – a big problem that they keep shooting themselves in the foot over, and why I wrote my column on this over the weekend. But this government’s penchant for self-inflicted wounds is something to behold, because they are completely incapable of communicating their way out of a wet paper bag.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1247917002296971271

Meanwhile, it sounds like the hold-up for the recall of Parliament to pass the wage subsidy legislation is that the Liberals want it to be done “virtually” (even though the Speaker says it could be weeks before that could even be feasible – though I would argue it’s not constitutional) while the Conservatives want the House to come back for regular sittings in a reduced capacity (which is what I’ve been arguing for weeks). Parliament is an essential service. The Liberals are being unreasonable on this one.

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Roundup: A whole lot more ventilators

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This morning’s presser from prime minister Justin Trudeau was largely focused on the domestic production of personal protective equipment, with 5000 companies having stepped forward to help, and letters of intent signed with partners to produce new supplies, which includes up to 30,000 new ventilators as well as other necessary supplies. He also mentioned that the proposed legislation on the wage subsidy was in the hands of the opposition to help negotiate swift passage (something which is outside of parliamentary norms), and because much of that subsidy is embedded in the Income Tax Act, it will require parliamentary approval (but I’m guessing that Parliament won’t be recalled until after Easter at this point, given that they need 48 hours’ notice). During the Q&A portion, Trudeau said that some of those ventilators could be for export if we have more than we wind up needing, but better to plan for the worst. He also said that they recognize that the banks could be doing more during this particular point in time, and they were looking at ways to get them to step up. When asked to weigh in on the mask debate, he again tried not to but then coined the phrase “speaking moistly,” and well, that turned into a meme. So that happened.

Meanwhile, as my reply column turned into another argument of “Why can’t the government just send everyone a cheque?!” here’s Kevin Milligan to disabuse you of that notion, with a couple of other reminders from Jennifer Robson.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1247675121113821184

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Roundup: CERB is go

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There were a lot of early piece of news in advance of Justin Trudeau’s daily presser – Doug Ford complaining that the province only had one week of supplies left as three million masks bound for Ontario were blocked at the US border (some half a million released later in the day), and Andrew Scheer helpfully demanding a “temporary” expansion of charitable tax credits.

When Trudeau did begin his presser, he spoke about the fact that the CERB was now online and thousands of applications had already poured in and the system hadn’t crashed. He also said that they were working on getting other benefit programmes in place for those whose hours were reduced, those who were still working but making less than they would be on CERB benefits, or students who didn’t qualify for benefits, and that there would be announcements for those soon. He also mentioned efforts at getting debt relief during the pandemic, and that they were working on bringing Parliament back to get the wage subsidy bill passed. During the Q&A, he spoke largely in generalities about working with the provinces and the US on resolving the issues around protective equipment (and by the end of the day, it seems that the mask issue had been settled and the Americans would once again allow shipments to flow to Canada), and that he was trying to find some kind of flexibility for a “virtual” parliament (which is a very bad thing and he should stop right there).

One thing Trudeau would not offer an opinion on was the mask debate, saying that it was not up for politicians to make these kinds of recommendations. During the ministerial presser shortly thereafter, Dr. Theresa Tam essentially reiterated her same advice that the only time you really need a mask is if you’re showing symptoms, and it could be helpful if you’re in a situation where physical distance is difficult – like on public transit – but repeated again that it’s not an official recommendation and that medical-grade masks should only be for medical personnel. And yet, despite this, everyone spent the rest of the day saying there were “new” mask guidelines (there weren’t), or that Tam had somehow reversed her previous position (she hadn’t), and there wasn’t a lot of focus on the fact that she repeated over and over that the problem with masks is they give people a false sense of confidence and they slack off on other measures like physical distancing or handwashing. But hey, everyone’s an armchair infectious disease specialist these days, so that’s what matters, right?

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Roundup: The Queen urges calm and restraint

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For his Sunday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau was once again in blue jeans and tie-less, and he spoke about how the CERB opens for applications today, and gave some rough timeline about when people can expect those benefits to start making their way to their accounts. He also said that Health Canada was looking for volunteers to help with things like contact tracing (and as for why these aren’t paid positions, I would imagine that the bureaucratic hoops to make that happen are simply too numerous to contemplate at the moment – federal hiring rules are complex). He also said that farms were looking for workers (given that there may be problems getting the temporary foreign workers that these farms depend on), and that the Canadian Forces were busy turning reserve forces into regulars. During the Q&A portion, he did talk about how he and his Cabinet were cognisant of their own potential for burnout during this crisis, as well as saying that civil servants were working to ensure that the CRA’s systems were not overloaded when the CERB portal opens, and he wouldn’t engage too much on speculation around the American president and his utterances around N95 masks.

During the presser that followed with Dr. Theresa Tam, she said that they were looking at ways to disinfect masks so that they can be reused several times in order to extend supplies, and asked that they not be thrown out.

A couple of hours later, we heard the address from the Queen on the current situation. While it was geared more toward the UK than to the Commonwealth, she did send a separate letter to Canada, which the Governor General posted to her site along with a message of her own.

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Roundup: Shelters and masks

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Because it was a Saturday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau appeared in jeans and without a tie, belying the more casual nature of the day at a time when days blend into one another. He had a couple of messages – that the government had invested another $40 million in shelters for women facing domestic violence (a particular consideration at a time when people are forced to stay home), and another $10 million for Indigenous women facing violence. He also pointed to $157 million in funds for the homeless, and that the communities where these funds were needed have been identified so funds were now flowing. On the subject of masks and medical devices, Trudeau stated that millions of more masks were expected in the next 48 hours (from the time of said announcement), and that the government had leased a warehouse in China to help coordinate the acquisition of these masks and supplies while they charter flights to carry them to Canada. Trudeau also noted that he would be speaking to his American counterpart in the coming days about the issue of masks and so on.

For her own presser, Dr. Theresa Tam reiterated yet again that these models that reporters keep demanding are not crystal balls, that they are not real numbers, that they aren’t predictions, and that they are highly sensitive to what is happening right now. But that hasn’t stopped the framing by reporters that these are hard data, and that they are indicative of anything in particular. And while here is an attempt to nuance the models Ontario released on Friday, but it’s one print article when TV reporters and headlines are framing it as disaster porn (and getting self-righteous about it).

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Roundup: Framing models as data

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For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau started off by saying that the government had signed an agreement with Amazon Canada – and not Canada Post – to manage the distribution of personal protective equipment to the provinces and territories when it is received by the federal government, but one imagines that this also involves warehousing and logistics than just simply delivery. He also announced $100 million being diverted to help meet food insecurity needs, through Food Banks Canada, as well as a variety of other breakfast clubs and other food organizations. He also mentioned his teleconference with the other premiers and their devotion to data sharing and projections, and that they were working to verify the latest figures that were being put online. During the Q&A, he confirmed that Canadian Forces – in the form of Rangers – have been dispatched to the Nunavik region of Northern Quebec, and addressed the news that the American president had ordered 3M to stop sending N95 masks to Canada and other Latin American countries (3M’s president pushed back citing humanitarian concerns and retaliation), and Trudeau stated that he has warned the Americans not to block access to needed supplies – particularly as Canada has many supplies and healthcare workers the Americans need, such as the 1000 nurses who live in Windsor but work in Detroit. It does highlight the need for more domestic production of these masks as competition for procurement gets more intense globally.

And then, Ontario released its modelling of some potential COVID-19 morbidity scenarios in the province, and the media went crazy. Despite the fact that this modelling is not data and that they are mere possible scenarios that are used for planning purposes, it was framed as “data” and in the language of how many people “will die,” as though this was mathematical certainty (though a handful said “could,” as though it were any better). And lo, all of the headlines used both this framing and sensationalism, they buried the new restrictions that are being imposed in Ontario as a result. And when some of the doctors that were being interviewed about these projections, and those doctors pushed back that this wasn’t data, self-righteous journalists threw tantrums about how this was information the public had a right to know, and so on.

But here’s the thing – part of this is a transparent attempt by Doug Ford to justify his further crackdowns, which I get. (Thread from Scott Reid here for context). But at the same time, there is no nuance to reporting of these models, they are incorrectly framed, and it’s throwing a lot of big numbers and timeframes out there without sufficient context. It’s not only disaster porn, but I fear that it will not actually have the desired effect of scaring people into compliance with lockdown measures. Instead, I am reminded of the aphorism that a single death is a tragedy, but a thousand deaths is a statistic – and numbers like these (the wild range of 3000 to 15,000) will have the real possibility of becoming a statistic in people’s minds, which may do more to undermine the whole reason why this modelling was released in the first place. And that worries me more than anything else.

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