Category Archives: Political Roundup

What’s going on in Canadian politics

Roundup: Data-sharing and demanding models

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For his morning presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau noted that he was planning a teleconference with the premiers that evening to talk about coordinating their efforts, and better data sharing. He also stated that they had received 1 million new N95 masks the night before, and that they were working to validate the 10 million other masts they got over the past several days and were distributing those to the provinces as well. He got more questions on modelling the pandemic, saying that it was still coming because the data wasn’t there yet, and said that those returning to Canada from abroad posted a “real risk” to the entire country if they didn’t follow the rules and immediately self-isolate.

During the ministerial briefing that followed, Patty Hajdu wouldn’t entertain questions on whether or not she trusted the data coming out of China, saying that they relied on WHO data, and dismissing some of those concerns as conspiracy theories, which had the pundit sphere in a tizzy the rest of the day. Mark Miller also said that they were considering requests from a couple of different First Nations about military field hospitals being set up in their regions, while more money for pandemic preparedness was flowing. Bill Morneau had a separate appearance before a teleconference of the Commons finance committee (which was a bit of a gong show), where he stated that they went with hard-and-fast rules for compensation that could mean that there are gaps in coverage because that was the fastest way to get compensation out the door. (Of course, he didn’t spell out the capacity challenges, which just leaves him vulnerable to more baseless criticism).

[Maclean’s has updated their Q&A on symptoms and where to get testing]

As for the debate over producing the modelling, we’re seeing some provinces promising to roll theirs out – Doug Ford promising it’ll be today – but I’m having a hard time trying to see what it’s going to do at this point that will be of any real help. I am very convinced that we don’t have enough good and consistent data right now (and there are several experts who say we don’t have enough to do proper modelling just yet), and if people want to see how bad it can get, just look at Italy or Spain. I also don’t trust in the capacity of the majority of my fellow journalists to interpret any of this modelling data anywhere near correctly, given that they have proven to be proudly innumerate already during this pandemic (and a good many of them can’t handle basic civic literacy when they cover politics), so I am largely convinced that they are demanding the models for the sake of easy narratives, such as a screaming headline about worst-case scenario death counts. (Seriously – I have been in this industry long enough to know that’s exactly what’s coming). And I also fail to see how it would offer any kind of reassurance to the public, especially as they can see the death counts in other countries as well as they could a headline about worst-case scenario modelling in Canada – add to that the additional confusion of the disputes over methodology that would follow. Models aren’t data, and according to one data analyst I know, no one will read the technical quotes associated with any released modelling, and it will serve as disaster porn – and she’s right. I mean, certain outlets who shall not be named relied on dial-a-quote outrage from certain familiar sources to bolster their case for demanding the numbers be released, in the face other outlets getting opinions from specialists who are saying it’s too soon to have good data on this. But maybe I’m just pessimistic.

https://twitter.com/moebius_strip/status/1245825513072951297

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Roundup: A need to recall the House again

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The day began not with Justin Trudeau, but rather Andrew Scheer, who pre-emptively held a press conference to say that the emergency legislation passed last week wouldn’t cover the new wage subsidy, before he both took credit for things that I know for a fact he had nothing to do with, and demanded that the government cancel the increase in the federal carbon price (never mind that gasoline prices are at decade lows at the moment and the additional $10/tonne wouldn’t even be noticed) and that the CRA refund all GST and HST collected in the last six months.

When Trudeau held his own presser a short while later, he talked in large generalities about their three-point plan for the economy, with the CERB available as of Monday – and warned that people could get either the wage subsidy or the CERB, but not both – before saying that they were going to have to recall parliament again to pass yet more measures. (Reminder: I’ve been calling on Parliament to keep sitting as a skeleton crew this whole time). During the Q&A portion, Trudeau was again asked how long this was expected to last, to which Trudeau – and later his minsters – repeated that how long this lasts depends on everyone following directions and abiding by physical distancing (which apparently people are having difficulty with as Toronto is enacting even more measures to enforce it). At the ministerial press conference, Patty Hajdu stated that it looks like the federal stockpile for pandemics may not have been adequate in part because successive governments didn’t allocate enough funds to it – as said stockpile is now being distributed to provinces who are facing shortfalls in protective equipment while the government scrambles to source more of it both domestically and from abroad.

Bill Morneau and Mary Ng held their own presser with the details over the wage subsidy programme later in the afternoon, and said that it could be three to six weeks before this gets up and running (and it would have been nice if they could spell out the reasons why rather than just platitudes). The costs of this programme are also going to be very large, and you can bet that fuel calls for people to “restart the economy” sooner.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1245436895250632707

[If you’re following the mask debate, Dr. Theresa Tam outlined some clearer guidelines yesterday].

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Roundup: Supplies, spin, and rent

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was on the theme of medical supplies – signing agreements with three major medical suppliers in the country, MOUs signed with five other companies, and some 3000 other companies who have volunteered to help the government with those supplies in whatever way they can. Trudeau also noted that they have allocated an additional $2 billion for new personal protective equipment, largely by way of bulk-purchasing, and that more supplies would be arriving within days. As well, the government is tasking its next-generation manufacturing supercluster with scaling-up these kinds of producers to meet the domestic and global demand. Why this became a somewhat fraught issue is because there are places in the country where PPEs are being rationed, and Quebec stating that they were days away from running out – though Trudeau said that in some cases, it may be the medical providers who were rationing because they were trying to preserve supplies for an anticipated surge of cases.

[Here is another Q&A with infectious diseases specialist, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, and a discussion on the current debate about masks.]

Meanwhile, the National Post hears from a bunch of government insiders who claim that the attempt to get the power of taxation without parliamentary approval was about trying to hold leverage of the big banks who have been reluctant to loosen lending requirements, which is an explanation that makes absolutely no sense, and makes me again repeat that there appears to be a cadre of jackasses in Morneau’s office who have been responsible for many of this government’s missteps and woes, and we shouldn’t trust them.

And while I’m on the subject of jackasses, I spent much of yesterday on the Twitter Machine trying to remind people that rent is provincial jurisdiction, so constantly hounding the federal government is a waste of time. This was met with numerous people who insisted that the federal government could invoke the Emergencies Act to claim that power. The mind boggles. Why in the hell would the federal government invoke the tool of last resort to intrude into landlord/tenant legislation when the provinces are perfectly capable of doing so on their own. It makes zero sense. Add to that the people crying out that the federal government should immediately give money to renters, as though there were a mechanism to do so. It’s taking the CRA three weeks to retool their systems to deliver the CERB, which is a pretty breakneck speed to ensure that the system can do what’s being asked of it and hopefully not fail doing it (because their computers are not magic, and you can’t just type “give everyone $2000” and expect it to happen. It’s impossible). And no, there is no analogous funding arrangement to healthcare or post-secondary, as others were trying to claim – those are funding envelopes to provincial governments that come with agreements. They don’t go to individuals, and they are not spending in provincial jurisdiction over the objection of any province. The number of people who seem to think otherwise is astounding.

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Roundup: Previewing more subsidies and army intervention

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Monday’s presser from prime minister Justin Trudeau provided a few more details on the planned wage subsidy, and made it clear that this was no longer just going to target small and medium-sized businesses, but businesses of any size, including those in the charitable and non-profit sectors – provided they see a 30 percent drop in revenues as a result of the pandemic. It’s a very big outlay by government, which is predicated on the notion that once the pandemic is effectively over, it will shorten the time needed to get the economy back in gear. The real details on the programme won’t be unveiled until later today, with ministers Bill Morneau and Mary Ng, but the assurances to businesses not to let their staff go is being signalled very loudly – as was a warning that businesses shouldn’t try to game this subsidy because when the audits are done after this is over, there will be consequences for those who do (though Andrew Coyne makes a very good point about how that may go). Trudeau also noted that the Canadian Forces have been put on alert, and that 24,000 troops who are set to be deployed have already been sequestering themselves so as to avoid any potential infection. The real distinction worth pointing out here, however, is that it’s less that they’re planning on using troops to police quarantine zones, but rather to ensure that they are there to help deal with floods or fires that may happen during this particular period – given that it is the season for floods especially – when communities are at reduced capacity.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1244708307337609217

Meanwhile, there does seem to be a sense of frustration and fear among medical providers across the country, particularly with the rationing of personal protective equipment as supply chains are affected. Some doctors are threatening to walk off the job if they can’t get the equipment they need, which is obviously something nobody wants.

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Roundup: Addressing the vulnerable

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For his Sunday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau – once again tieless – made a couple of minor announcements, all related to the vulnerable. He again spoke directly to kids, and said that they were investing more in Kids Help Phone to hire more counsellors because it can be stressful for many to be trapped at home; and then for seniors facing isolation, he spoke about new investments in the New Horizons for Seniors programme. During the Q&A, he also said that he was concerned about how Correctional Services was protecting inmates from COVID-19 and that more announcements were coming, and acknowledged that there were worst-case scenario preparations being made regarding turning hotels, convention centres and arenas into possible field hospitals. He also said that the personal protective equipment arriving from China would be tested to ensure that it met standards, after concerns that equipment sent to the Netherlands didn’t. Finally, he also stated that he would continue to self-isolate for the end of the two-weeks since his wife was symptomatic, while also stating that she has taken the children to the official residence at Harrington Lake now that she’s had a clean bill of health.

During the ministerial presser afterward, Ahmed Hussen spoke about other supports for the charitable sector that they were rolling out, while Dr. Theresa Tam said that the coming week would be a crucial period to see if the physical distancing measures were having an effect.

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Roundup: Taking on domestic flights

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For his Saturday presser, Trudeau went tie-less, because it’s the weekend. He mostly offered reassurances, but did say that formal orders were coming to keep symptomatic people from domestic flights and trains – which the federal government has authority over – but long-distance busses were provincial responsibility, so look there. He also mentioned – which was followed up by the Chief Public Health Officer minutes later in her own briefing – that there were signs that physical distancing was starting to bend the curve in BC, but as Dr. Theresa Tam reiterated, that means that now is the time to double down, not get lax.

Meanwhile, here’s economist Kevin Milligan reminding you of everything announced this week and how to access it.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243954419772715008

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243957017426817024

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243959663126708224

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243961465310023680

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243963188380454912

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Roundup: A big wage subsidy

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For his Friday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau had big headlines but few details – that the government was going to boost the wage subsidy for small and medium-sized businesses to 75 percent from the originally announced ten, along with a few other tax deferral measures to help businesses retain their liquidity. The details, however, aren’t going to be released until around Monday, but Trudeau stated that it was more important to get the message out that this help was on the way so that they would ensure that these businesses retained their employees (or even re-hire them) rather than lay them off so that they can collect EI or the new emergency benefit for the duration. Speed over perfection is the new motto of the times. (On a side note, Andrew Scheer was going around taking credit for this subsidy, when I know for a fact it was other people working behind the scenes, but Scheer needs to try and justify his existence).

This announcement came in the wake of a new PBO report that estimated the size of the deficit based on the measures that had been announced to that point, but what was particularly significant was that his modelling was that physical distancing would be in effect until August, which sent the various reporters into apoplexy, as they started demanding to know how long that Trudeau thought that current conditions were going to last – as though that was a question he could reasonably answer at a time where the Quarantine Act has only just been enforced, and we have returning snowbirds who think that these rules don’t apply to them, and where it’s still too soon to see how much of an effect the current measures have had. Quebec is seeing a spike in cases because their spring break was two weeks ahead of everyone else’s in the country, and it’s showing up in the data now.

It was also worthwhile noting that Bill Morneau and Stephen Poloz had another joint press conference today – Morneau to reiterate some of the messaging around the new wage subsidy, and Poloz to take questions about the emergency rate cut that the Bank of Canada announced shortly beforehand, where they cut rates to 0.25 percent, which is as low as they’re going to go, but to also engage in quantitative easing (which is not actually printing money as he spelled out). Their joint appearance seems to be remain under the aegis of trying to reassure the public and the markets that our fiscal heavyweights are on the case, but when this is all over, we will need to see our parliamentarians examining the relationship to ensure that monetary policy truly remained independent and not coordinated with fiscal policy, no matter how dire the economic situation.

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Roundup: Militarizing borders and needling protectionism

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I’m not sure that anyone knew what today’s outburst of insanity was going to be when Justin Trudeau held his daily presser, wherein he reiterated the approval of the new emergency response benefit, spoke about the G20 conference call earlier that morning, the formal appointment of Kirsten Hillman as Canadian ambassador to the US, warning of a text message scam posing as the government offering benefits, and the invocation of the Quarantine Act. It wasn’t until the questions that the day’s obsessions came to the fore. One of them – what the government could do about credit card interest rates during this crisis – was fairly tame (for which Trudeau stated they were talking to the banks), but two other stories in dominated. The first was news that the Americans wanted to deploy some 1500 troops near the Canada-US border, to which Trudeau said that they were aware of the discussion, but he had vigorously opposed any such move to militarize our border – something which would make no sense to do. (The Americans later dropped the idea).

The other story that carried through the day was one (which I shall not link to because of the underlying Sinophobia) about Canada’s decision to send medical equipment to China back in February, when they were trying to contain the spread of the outbreak there. It was the perfectly sensible thing to do, we lived up to our global obligations, and the focus at the time was very much trying to contain the spread, while we maintained proper stockpiles within Canada at a time when the risk of transmission was low. Add to that, China has since sent more supplies to Canada than we sent to them. But that didn’t stop hay from being made by Conservatives, both from Andrew Scheer himself, as well as the guy running Erin O’Toole’s campaign, and it’s troubling how these kinds of narratives can turn toxic. “Canada First” is the kind of thing that becomes dark really quickly, and we should try to discourage this kind of thing before it goes septic.

Chris Selley, meanwhile, asks some salient questions about the underlying equipment supply problems in Ontario after it congratulated itself on being so prepared, and why there seems to be such a reluctance on the parts of governments (not just Canadian ones) to at least look like they’re angst-ridden about the overreaches they’re asking for.

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Roundup: A negotiated solution

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In the end, a compromise was reached – MPs shuffled back into the House of Commons by 3 AM, and had passed the bill by six, after grilling the ministers who were present. Parliament did its job, democracy was saved, and the Conservatives spent the day patting themselves on the back to let you know just how brave they were in saving it. As the bill was over in the Senate on schedule – and it had always been scheduled to reach there yesterday for debate and passage and not on Tuesday, as many hysterical media outlets failed to mention – Trudeau held his daily presser, outlining the measures that were passed within it, which included a streamlining of several of the earlier-announced benefits into a more catch-all $2000/month benefit over the course of four months for anyone who wasn’t working, whether they had been laid off or not. Trudeau also announced new support for journalism (mostly ad revenues) and an acceleration of their tax measures. During the ministerial briefing, more details on supports for Indigenous communities was outlined, and shortly thereafter, Patty Hajdu also announced that the Quarantine Act was being invoked to ensure travellers returning to Canada actually self-isolated, even if it meant the government putting them in a hotel room for two weeks and providing them food.

[Maclean’s has updated their information on symptoms and where to get tested].

The tales of the negotiations are fairly interesting to me, in part because there seem to be breakdowns across the board. The Conservatives went into this saying “no surprises” and were surprised by the outsized spending powers, which they say broke their trust. The Liberals were on the one hand apparently surprised to see them in there (and it’s a question of whether it was the drafters in the Department of Justice who are to blame, or perhaps some of the people in Bill Morneau’s office who seem to operate pretty independently of the minister, if testimony from the Double-Hyphen Affair is to be believed), while also justifying that they needed enhanced powers because of the shifting nature of the pandemic emergency, and how fast everything has been changing. Which mostly just reinforces my own previously published points that if we kept the Skeleton Parliament in place, the government could more easily pass new fiscal measures in short order rather than do the song and dance of recalling MPs while providing more constant oversight while still respecting physical distancing and other protective measures. But who listens to me?

Paul Wells gives his take on the whole affair here, which is well worth your time reading. (My own take on what brought us to this point, in the event that you missed it, is here).

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Roundup: Suspended for negotiations

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For his daily presser yesterday, Justin Trudeau first gave some bland assurances about believing in democratic institutions before updating on his conversation with the premiers the day before, stating that now was not the time for the Emergencies Act to be implemented, but it remained the tool of last resort. (He also gave some information on other flights they have secured for stranded Canadians, said that faster testing was coming, and that they’re not ruling out using telecom data to find social gatherings so that they can shut them down). But the drama for the day started moments later when the House of Commons convened for the Skeleton Parliament, and immediately suspended in order to continue negotiations because the Conservatives in particular were not going to let the government give itself the power of unlimited spending without any parliamentary oversight – as well they shouldn’t. Even more to the point, Conservative MP Scott Reid showed up, despite not having been on the leader’s approved list, and posted a 2500-word essay online about why he was going to deny any unanimous consent, why it was improper for his party to try to keep him from being there, and his (proper) concern around Parliament passed three bills sight-unseen in one fell swoop before they suspended. And he’s absolutely right.

While the negotiations carried on for at least the next twelve hours (by the time I gave up waiting and went to bed), it sounded like the government was walking back on some of the measures but a new text of the bill still hadn’t been forthcoming. But that didn’t stop the absolute inane partisanship from all sides, which was not helped at all by ministers like Mélanie Joly saying asinine things like “the parliamentary process is too slow” for the government’s pandemic response, which is utterly infuriating. People defending the government’s move to try and bypass parliament seem to forget that this is how democracy works, and it’s not a bad thing. If they don’t like that, then they can tell the Queen that we’re turning over all power to her because it’s easier that way. And then there were the conspiracy theories that the Conservatives had somehow set up Reid as the weasel so that they could be partisan spoilers over the government’s response, which is so mind-blowingly stupid that I can’t even. Reid, who is on the outs with Scheer, somehow cooked up a scheme to be spoilers? When the government went and put an unconstitutional provision in the bill and expected parliament to swiftly pass it and just trust them? Seriously? And the harrowing cries that this was causing people to die, never mind that the plan was always that the Senate would receive the bill today and that it would get royal assent today, not yesterday. Because why should two centuries of Responsible Government matter? And Westminster parliaments going back to the late 1600s? It’s not like turning over more power to governments in times of fear without proper oversight ever goes badly, right?

Meanwhile, Susan Delacourt has some of the behind-the-scenes details on how those offending passages got into the bill, though I’m not mollified by the notion that this was all to be negotiated because I’ve heard from people at briefings who say that this wasn’t how it was presented to them. Heather Scoffield isn’t reassured by the government’s words, considering they wanted to enhance their spending powers until the end of 2021. Chris Selley praises Scott Reid for standing up for Parliament in the face of a government that would have trod all over its rights.

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