Tag Archives: Bank of Canada

Roundup: Bringing in the assault-rifle ban

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For the second day in a row, prime minister Justin Trudeau held his daily presser in the West Block instead of outside of Rideau Cottage, and once again, he was flanked by Cabinet ministers for an announcement – this time it was to declare that he had signed an Order-in-Council that relegated some 1500 “assault-style” rifles to be illegal, effective immediately, with a two-year amnesty period while they sorted out the legislation around the buy-back programme that was going to accompany it, which would be tabled as soon as we got back to regular parliamentary operations, along with a budget. They took great care to say that legitimate hunters and sport-shooters were not being targeted, and Chrystia Freeland spun a homily about her father the farmer taking his hunting rifle to scare off bears and to shoot prairie chickens that would become dinner – but also made the point that part of what they were doing was targeting the fetishization of particular weapons as part of gun culture.

The reaction was fast and furious – the Conservatives considered it to be pure politics and that they were taking advantage of the tragedy in Nova Scotia to score points (because they never did that). Jason Kenney was predictably apoplectic and declared that he was looking at replacing the federal firearms officer with a provincial chief firearms officer for all the good it would do, considering that these changes are under the Criminal Code, which is federal jurisdiction. Many gun control advocates said that these measures didn’t go far enough, and that they didn’t live up to the promises that the Liberals made during the election. There is also the very legitimate criticism that these kinds of measures are useless unless more attention and resources are poured into security the border against illegal gun smuggling, which is how a great many illegal firearms wind up in this country.

Add to that was a great deal of hue and cry about the way in which this government went about doing this, which is by Order-in-Council, and many a voice over social media including some reporters who should know better that this was all very unseemly in a “minority government.” (Reminder that there is no such thing as a “minority government” – we have a hung parliament but a government is a government regardless of whether they hold a majority of seats in the legislature or not, because government is Cabinet). So, to break it down, it’s not unseemly because this kind of ban happens through regulation – the legislative framework is already in the Criminal Code. And you want this kind of ban list in regulation because you’re not going to amend the Criminal Code every time you need to add or subtract a particular make of weapon from the prohibited list. That’s why regulation exists, and has its own consultative processes and review by the Scrutiny of Regulations committee in Parliament. The government will still need legislation for their buy-back programme and any other assorted measures to mitigate and compensate current owners, and even though it’s a hung parliament, the Bloc and NDP are almost certainly going to be in support of these measures, so that’s less of a concern for them.

https://twitter.com/PhilippeLagasse/status/1256259714234679301

https://twitter.com/PhilippeLagasse/status/1256266671083454465

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Roundup: Commercial rent relief on the way

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For his Friday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau at long last unveiled the details of the commercial rent relief programme, now that they have ironed out the details with the provinces (considering that it’s their jurisdiction), which is essentially that commercial landlords (for properties where the rent is below a certain threshold) need to offer 75 percent discounts on their rent from April to June, and the federal government would provide non-repayable loans of up to fifty percent of said rents. From there, he mentioned that they were deploying Canadian Armed Forces personnel to certain long-term care facilities in Ontario and Quebec, and that they were working to beef up the salaries of existing long-term care workers. He also said that they were working with provinces and territories to establish guidelines for when they re-open their economies, but that people need to pay attention to the local rules and not those in other jurisdictions, because the outbreaks are different in each region. (During the First Ministers’ weekly teleconference later in the day, there was some agreement to this, and apparently each province and territory will be submitting their plans to the federal government).

Of course, with the news that there was an agreement on commercial rents, we got some fairly usual voices caterwauling that all rents needed to be dealt with, not just commercial ones. The response to that, of course, is to talk to one’s premier, because that’s where the responsibility lies – Trudeau can’t just swoop in because landlord and tenant legislation is strictly provincial, and the mechanisms they employed for the commercial rent relief are not necessarily suited for residential properties. And there was word today that Doug Ford wants the federal government to step in on residential rents – after he has been spectacularly unwilling to do anything and tells people to work it out with their landlords – so if there is more uptake with his fellow premiers in the next few days, they may try to design something, though I’m not sure exactly what, because I worry that there may be a bigger domino effect throughout the banking sector, but there are no quick fixes. And no, the national housing strategy does not give federal jurisdiction over rents, nor does the Canada Health Act provide a template for rent either, because there are no funding agreements with the provinces, nor would the federal government simply be transferring a pot of money to the provinces for residential rents. It’s complex, there are big jurisdictional issues, and Trudeau can’t and shouldn’t do everything. The provinces have a role to play and they should play it.

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Roundup: Expanded help, pending the provinces

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For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau opened by talking about his meeting with G7 leaders, talking about the need for a global response to a global pandemic, and the need to help more vulnerable nations – leaving it unspoken that it will be harder to do that if the WHOs funding takes a big hit thanks to Trump’s conspiracy theorism around it. He mentioned his upcoming meeting with the premiers, and noted that Quebec had made an official request for assistance with its long-term care workers – and while many reporters wanted details on what exactly the ask was, the response through the day was that it came late the night before and they were still talking with the province about how best to support them (though the theme seems to be that they want the army to help with these long-term care facilities – something they may have some ability to help with). Trudeau also noted that when things weren’t going as well as hoped, “we make changes,” and then announced that they were expanding the eligibility for the Canada Emergency Business Accounts, as well as gave a few more details about the planned Canada Emergency Commercial Rent Assistance, which would provide loans (some of them forgivable) to commercial property owners on the condition that they provide rent reductions to commercial tenants in May and June – though the coordination of this is still happening with the provinces.

One thing that did emerge, both in the Q&A with Trudeau and during the ministerial one that followed, were questions relating to the modelling of the pandemic, and how we’ve had nearly twice as many deaths as projected by this point, prompting questions about what went wrong with the models. And my head exploded. These models were not predictions or forecasts – they’re an exercise to help with resource planning, which has been stated over and over again, and yet we had more than one journalist try and treat these models as credible data. And because these reporters been told time and again that they’re not data, they’re not forecasts, they’re planning tools, and the fact that this doesn’t sink in, is crazy-making.

Meanwhile, here’s economist Kevin Milligan’s evaluation of the Conservative demand for a GST rebate, which is harder than it looks, and probably not as helpful as the Conservatives think it would be.

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Roundup: Trying to blame the WHO

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Andrew Scheer was again out first yesterday morning to repeat his call for in-person sittings in the House of Commons (which Elizabeth May somehow claims is mere partisanship, which I don not grasp), before Scheer went off on tangents about the WHO, because apparently he thinks that following Trumpian logic is a winning plan. (The Conservatives on the Commons health committee have also been aggressively trying to “get answers” on misinformation from China laundered through the WHO).

Prime minister Justin Trudeau was up next for his daily presser, wherein he laid out plans to expand the CERB to those who make less than $1000 and seasonal workers, as well as those whose EI has run out, and promised wage top-ups for those essential workers who make less than $2500/month, but still no news on help for students and commercial rent (which one assumes is in partnership with the provinces). He also noted the assistance that the Canadian Forces as providing in Nunavut and in Northern Quebec. During the Q&A, Trudeau refused to get involved in the WHO debate, for what it’s worth.

Meanwhile, the issue of long-term care in Ontario was getting much more scrutiny, and it turns out that out of 626 facilities in the province, a mere nine got an inspection last year. Nine. Because the province moved to a “risk-based” system, which apparently means that there is only an investigation after a complaint is filed. So that’s totally fine, and one more sign about the complete mismanagement of the Ford government (that people seem to be forgetting when they praise Ford “stepping up” to the current pandemic challenge).

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Roundup: Long-term care and quarantine

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Andrew Scheer was out first this morning, saying that he was trying to get some kind of a deal with the government on how to bring parliament back next week as they are scheduled to, and that he wants in-person sittings of some variety to ensure ongoing accountability (and he’s right). But when asked about bringing his family on that flight when they weren’t planning on them being there (and apparently Senator Don Plett had to get a different flight because it was suddenly full with Scheer’s family), he brushed off said questions. He then spent the rest of the day raising “serious concerns” about the WHO and its recommendations (recall that Jason Kenney on Monday accused Dr. Theresa Tam of repeating talking points from the People’s Republic of China), because what the world needs right now is to hew to the Trumpian instincts to undermine international institutions.

Next up was prime minister Justin Trudeau for his daily presser, in which he announced that four planes full of N95 masks have arrived and are in the process of being validated and distributed, before he brought up $130 million of new funding for the northern territories, including more money for healthcare, for Nutrition North, for northern air carriers, and money for the CanNor development agency. He also noted that they were working to enhance the Canada Emergency Business Account programme and were looking into something about commercial rent (though that’s provincial jurisdiction, so not sure what the federal government could do). As if that weren’t enough, he also raised that they were strengthening some of the measures under the Quarantine Act, as well as boosting the capacity of the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, particularly when it comes to ensuring there are more inspectors on the line. Oh, and he didn’t offer any apologies for his trip to Harrington Lake on the weekend, so there was also that. When asked about the issue of long-term care facilities (which is provincial jurisdiction), Trudeau did say they were working with the provinces to see about sending some additional funds to bolster salaries, so there’s also that.

Meanwhile, Vancouver’s city council tried to meet “virtually,” and here’s how that went down, in case anyone thinks it would actually go any better with 338 MPs in parliament.

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Roundup: Dire stats as Parliament is recalled

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It was a very busy morning – first, Statistics Canada released the March job figures, which were dismal – 1.01 million jobs lost, massive reductions in hours worked, but also (which everyone didn’t really report) that most of these jobs will likely come back once the pandemic measures are over with, which is significant. Following that, the federal Chief Public Health Officer, Dr. Theresa Tam, released some of the federal modelling on the course of the pandemic, which put everyone into a hot and bothered state.

When prime minister Justin Trudeau held his daily presser, he largely played the role of empathiser in chief – yes, these are all grim numbers, but we’ll get through them together. More to the point, we could be in this until summer, so it’s time to get used to our new normal, particularly if there are subsequent waves that follow this one (though those ones would likely not be as severe and wouldn’t require the same measures like the current lockdown – hopefully). He did also say that he respected parliament but then started making excuses for why he wanted a virtual one, and nope. Not going to fly, sorry.

It was announced later in the day that Parliament will be back on Saturday – 12:15 for the Commons, 4 for the Senate, which likely means Royal Assent by the time the day is over. That means that we’ll have yet more emergency legislation that gets maybe three hours of “debate” in the House of Commons, and that once again all of the negotiations have been done behind closed doors, and there will be no public record about what kind of amendments were requested and agreed to, which serves no one’s interests, particularly those of Canadians.

[Maclean’s has a new Q&A with Dr. Isaac Bogoch on questions people have about the pandemic]

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Roundup: A need to recall the House again

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The day began not with Justin Trudeau, but rather Andrew Scheer, who pre-emptively held a press conference to say that the emergency legislation passed last week wouldn’t cover the new wage subsidy, before he both took credit for things that I know for a fact he had nothing to do with, and demanded that the government cancel the increase in the federal carbon price (never mind that gasoline prices are at decade lows at the moment and the additional $10/tonne wouldn’t even be noticed) and that the CRA refund all GST and HST collected in the last six months.

When Trudeau held his own presser a short while later, he talked in large generalities about their three-point plan for the economy, with the CERB available as of Monday – and warned that people could get either the wage subsidy or the CERB, but not both – before saying that they were going to have to recall parliament again to pass yet more measures. (Reminder: I’ve been calling on Parliament to keep sitting as a skeleton crew this whole time). During the Q&A portion, Trudeau was again asked how long this was expected to last, to which Trudeau – and later his minsters – repeated that how long this lasts depends on everyone following directions and abiding by physical distancing (which apparently people are having difficulty with as Toronto is enacting even more measures to enforce it). At the ministerial press conference, Patty Hajdu stated that it looks like the federal stockpile for pandemics may not have been adequate in part because successive governments didn’t allocate enough funds to it – as said stockpile is now being distributed to provinces who are facing shortfalls in protective equipment while the government scrambles to source more of it both domestically and from abroad.

Bill Morneau and Mary Ng held their own presser with the details over the wage subsidy programme later in the afternoon, and said that it could be three to six weeks before this gets up and running (and it would have been nice if they could spell out the reasons why rather than just platitudes). The costs of this programme are also going to be very large, and you can bet that fuel calls for people to “restart the economy” sooner.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1245436895250632707

[If you’re following the mask debate, Dr. Theresa Tam outlined some clearer guidelines yesterday].

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Roundup: Supplies, spin, and rent

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was on the theme of medical supplies – signing agreements with three major medical suppliers in the country, MOUs signed with five other companies, and some 3000 other companies who have volunteered to help the government with those supplies in whatever way they can. Trudeau also noted that they have allocated an additional $2 billion for new personal protective equipment, largely by way of bulk-purchasing, and that more supplies would be arriving within days. As well, the government is tasking its next-generation manufacturing supercluster with scaling-up these kinds of producers to meet the domestic and global demand. Why this became a somewhat fraught issue is because there are places in the country where PPEs are being rationed, and Quebec stating that they were days away from running out – though Trudeau said that in some cases, it may be the medical providers who were rationing because they were trying to preserve supplies for an anticipated surge of cases.

[Here is another Q&A with infectious diseases specialist, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, and a discussion on the current debate about masks.]

Meanwhile, the National Post hears from a bunch of government insiders who claim that the attempt to get the power of taxation without parliamentary approval was about trying to hold leverage of the big banks who have been reluctant to loosen lending requirements, which is an explanation that makes absolutely no sense, and makes me again repeat that there appears to be a cadre of jackasses in Morneau’s office who have been responsible for many of this government’s missteps and woes, and we shouldn’t trust them.

And while I’m on the subject of jackasses, I spent much of yesterday on the Twitter Machine trying to remind people that rent is provincial jurisdiction, so constantly hounding the federal government is a waste of time. This was met with numerous people who insisted that the federal government could invoke the Emergencies Act to claim that power. The mind boggles. Why in the hell would the federal government invoke the tool of last resort to intrude into landlord/tenant legislation when the provinces are perfectly capable of doing so on their own. It makes zero sense. Add to that the people crying out that the federal government should immediately give money to renters, as though there were a mechanism to do so. It’s taking the CRA three weeks to retool their systems to deliver the CERB, which is a pretty breakneck speed to ensure that the system can do what’s being asked of it and hopefully not fail doing it (because their computers are not magic, and you can’t just type “give everyone $2000” and expect it to happen. It’s impossible). And no, there is no analogous funding arrangement to healthcare or post-secondary, as others were trying to claim – those are funding envelopes to provincial governments that come with agreements. They don’t go to individuals, and they are not spending in provincial jurisdiction over the objection of any province. The number of people who seem to think otherwise is astounding.

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Roundup: A big wage subsidy

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For his Friday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau had big headlines but few details – that the government was going to boost the wage subsidy for small and medium-sized businesses to 75 percent from the originally announced ten, along with a few other tax deferral measures to help businesses retain their liquidity. The details, however, aren’t going to be released until around Monday, but Trudeau stated that it was more important to get the message out that this help was on the way so that they would ensure that these businesses retained their employees (or even re-hire them) rather than lay them off so that they can collect EI or the new emergency benefit for the duration. Speed over perfection is the new motto of the times. (On a side note, Andrew Scheer was going around taking credit for this subsidy, when I know for a fact it was other people working behind the scenes, but Scheer needs to try and justify his existence).

This announcement came in the wake of a new PBO report that estimated the size of the deficit based on the measures that had been announced to that point, but what was particularly significant was that his modelling was that physical distancing would be in effect until August, which sent the various reporters into apoplexy, as they started demanding to know how long that Trudeau thought that current conditions were going to last – as though that was a question he could reasonably answer at a time where the Quarantine Act has only just been enforced, and we have returning snowbirds who think that these rules don’t apply to them, and where it’s still too soon to see how much of an effect the current measures have had. Quebec is seeing a spike in cases because their spring break was two weeks ahead of everyone else’s in the country, and it’s showing up in the data now.

It was also worthwhile noting that Bill Morneau and Stephen Poloz had another joint press conference today – Morneau to reiterate some of the messaging around the new wage subsidy, and Poloz to take questions about the emergency rate cut that the Bank of Canada announced shortly beforehand, where they cut rates to 0.25 percent, which is as low as they’re going to go, but to also engage in quantitative easing (which is not actually printing money as he spelled out). Their joint appearance seems to be remain under the aegis of trying to reassure the public and the markets that our fiscal heavyweights are on the case, but when this is all over, we will need to see our parliamentarians examining the relationship to ensure that monetary policy truly remained independent and not coordinated with fiscal policy, no matter how dire the economic situation.

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Roundup: A negotiated solution

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In the end, a compromise was reached – MPs shuffled back into the House of Commons by 3 AM, and had passed the bill by six, after grilling the ministers who were present. Parliament did its job, democracy was saved, and the Conservatives spent the day patting themselves on the back to let you know just how brave they were in saving it. As the bill was over in the Senate on schedule – and it had always been scheduled to reach there yesterday for debate and passage and not on Tuesday, as many hysterical media outlets failed to mention – Trudeau held his daily presser, outlining the measures that were passed within it, which included a streamlining of several of the earlier-announced benefits into a more catch-all $2000/month benefit over the course of four months for anyone who wasn’t working, whether they had been laid off or not. Trudeau also announced new support for journalism (mostly ad revenues) and an acceleration of their tax measures. During the ministerial briefing, more details on supports for Indigenous communities was outlined, and shortly thereafter, Patty Hajdu also announced that the Quarantine Act was being invoked to ensure travellers returning to Canada actually self-isolated, even if it meant the government putting them in a hotel room for two weeks and providing them food.

[Maclean’s has updated their information on symptoms and where to get tested].

The tales of the negotiations are fairly interesting to me, in part because there seem to be breakdowns across the board. The Conservatives went into this saying “no surprises” and were surprised by the outsized spending powers, which they say broke their trust. The Liberals were on the one hand apparently surprised to see them in there (and it’s a question of whether it was the drafters in the Department of Justice who are to blame, or perhaps some of the people in Bill Morneau’s office who seem to operate pretty independently of the minister, if testimony from the Double-Hyphen Affair is to be believed), while also justifying that they needed enhanced powers because of the shifting nature of the pandemic emergency, and how fast everything has been changing. Which mostly just reinforces my own previously published points that if we kept the Skeleton Parliament in place, the government could more easily pass new fiscal measures in short order rather than do the song and dance of recalling MPs while providing more constant oversight while still respecting physical distancing and other protective measures. But who listens to me?

Paul Wells gives his take on the whole affair here, which is well worth your time reading. (My own take on what brought us to this point, in the event that you missed it, is here).

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