Roundup: Green wins, and the AG’s report

After the Green Party won their second seat in Monday night’s by-election in Nanaimo–Ladysmith, it was inevitable that we would be subjected to a litany of hot takes about what this means for the upcoming federal election, most of which I’m not going to bother reading because frankly, I’m not sure it means anything at all. The Greens have been doing well provincially on Vancouver Island, where this riding is, and more than that, this particular candidate was once an NDP candidate who was booted from the party (apparently for views about Israel), and when the Greens picked him up, he won for them, while the NDP vote collapsed. Add to that, Green wins in BC, New Brunswick and PEI were also predicated by incumbent governments who had been in place for a long time (well, in New Brunswick, it was a constant PC/Liberal swap), and that’s not necessarily the case federally. While Justin Trudeau and Jagmeet Singh tried to spin this as “proof” that Canadians care about the environment (for which both will try to tout their party policies on the same) we can’t forget that Canadians want to do something about the environment in the same way that they want a pony – it’s a nice idea that nobody has any intention of following up on because it’s a lot of effort and mess. This has been proven time and again. I would also caution against the notion that this means that “progressive” votes are up for grabs, because the Greens, well, aren’t all that progressive. If you read their platform, it’s really quite socially conservative, and they had whole sections essentially written by “Men’s Rights Activists” because they have little to no adult supervision in their policy development process. So any hot takes you’re going to read about the by-election are probably going to be full of hot air (quite possibly this one as well).

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Auditor General’s Report

The big news out of the Auditor General’s report was of course the backlog that the Immigration and Refugee Board faces regarding asylum claimants in Canada. The Conservatives, naturally, have jumped on this to “prove” that the current government has somehow broken the system, but every single expert that was cited over the day yesterday said that the Liberals inherited a system that was already broken (some went so far as to say that the Conservatives deliberately broke it in order to force a crisis that would allow them to adopt more draconian measures – though those backfired in a spectacular way, worsening the backlog), and that they have taken steps to increase the IRB’s resources. I wrote about some of these issues a while ago, and the IRB was starting to streamline some of their processes and start making use of technology like email (no, seriously) that cut down on some of the bureaucracy they were mired in – but as with anything, these kinds of changes take time to implement and have an effect. But expect the narrative of the “broken” system to continue in the run up to the election. Meanwhile, here are the other reports:

  • Half of Canadians who call a government call centre can’t get through, which is blamed on technology that was allowed to go obsolete
  • The RCMP are still not adequately prepared to deal with active shooter situations.
  • Our tax system hasn’t kept up with e-commerce and needs modernization
  • The mechanism to prevent governments from doing partisan advertising has little documentation and rigour.

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QP: The Auditor General’s report on the IRB gets play

While Andrew Scheer was off in Montreal to give a foreign policy speech, Justin Trudeau was present — as was a beaming Elizabeth May. Lisa Raitt led off, asking about the planned loss of jobs for people with developmental disabilities at Library and Archives, and Trudeau read a script about the Accessibility Act, and at the end, Trudeau noted that the contract was extended. Raitt then moved onto the Auditor General’s report on the backlog in the immigration system, and Trudeau responded that the system had been broken the previous government and that his government had invested in it, cleared the legacy backlog, and were transforming the system. Raitt called the Roxham Road irregular border crossing an “express entry” system, and Trudeau called out her fear-mongering before noting that migration was up across the world and Canada is committed to a fair process. Pierre Paul-Hus repeated Raitt’s question in French, and Trudeau read the French version of his first response. Paul-Hus went with the angry follow-up, calling the system “broken,” and Trudeau repeated that in the face of fear and division, Canada was doing what it could. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, and in raising the recent report on the loss of biodiversity, he demanded the NDP’s environmental bill of rights be adopted. Trudeau stated that while the NDP were all talk, his government was taking action. Singh repeated the question in French, and Trudeau repeated his response. Singh then read about a catastrophic drug case in Ontario, demanding immediate action on pharmacare, and Trudeau read about the planned Canada Drug Agency in the budget. Singh repeated the question in English, and got a same response from Trudeau in English.

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QP: Torquing the Leslie issue

Despite it being a Monday, many of the seats in the Commons were vacant, and neither the PM nor the leader of the opposition were present. Candice Bergen led off, and tried to make hay of Andrew Leslie being a character witness at the Mark Norman trial. David Lametti assured her that the department of Justice has cooperated and released all documents. Bergen disputed this, and repeated the demand to turn over documents, and Lametti repeated that all obligations were being upheld. Bergen trie a third time, got the same response, and then Alain Rayes took over in French to ask the same question,impressing upon the Chamber that this had to do with Davie Shipyard. Carla Qualtrough stood up to list the contracts that Davie was getting, and when Rayes tried again, Lametti gave the French assurances of cooperation. Jagmeet Singh led off for the NDP, and he demanded an end to fossil fuel subsidies, fo which Jonathan Wilkinson repeated that they were phasing them out by 2025 and would meet their international obligations. Singh repeated the question in French, and read the French version of his response. Singh wants more action on climate change, got more bland assurances from Wilkinson. In English, Singh demanded a return to 30-year mortgages, and Kirsty stood up to praise the national housing strategy. 

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Roundup: A hung parliament in PEI

The PEI election did not result in a Green Party majority, because shockingly, the polls were wrong. It did result in a hung parliament, which has never happened before in that province, and yet every single media outlet and then the prime minister himself declared that the progressive conservatives had won a minority. Err, except we don’t know the composition of the next government yet because the lieutenant governor hasn’t invited anyone to form government, and the seat distribution – 12 PC, 8 Green, 6 Liberal – is one where it’s not actually clear that the PCs will form government, as a Green-Liberal coalition remains more than possible. Which isn’t to say that it will happen, but there is a way in which government formation works in a Westminster system, and simply winning the most seats, even if you don’t win a majority, doesn’t mean that you get a chance to form government. It doesn’t work that way! And it would be really great if the media would stop creating this false sense that it works that way, because it doesn’t. And even if the PCs do form government, they will need one of the other parties to prop them up, and that will have a significant effect on the shape of that government. Pre-empting the lieutenant governor’s call simply invites confusion, which we should probably be avoiding.

Happily, the province’s electoral reform referendum also went down in defeat (and this is another place where the urban-rural split will likely be evident). Hopefully this means that the advocates will shut up about it because they keep losing. I know they won’t – they’re convinced that people just don’t understand or are too stupid to realise that PR is so good for them (it’s not), but you would hope that the constant defeats would be some kind of dissuasion.

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Roundup: A ham-fisted attempt at undermining

Another day of developments in the interminable Double-Hyphen Affair fallout, and it’s beyond ridiculous. And yet here we are. To start the day, Justin Trudeau said that he had a “next steps” conversation with Jody Wilson-Raybould last Monday – you know, when Michael Wernick resigned and Anne McLellan was named a special advisor – and it was a “cordial” talk, and both she and Jane Philpott still want to run for the Liberals, and he’s looking forward to that. Oh, and he’s not going to extend any further waiver on confidences because the one he extended already covered the issue at hand, thank you very much. And he’s right about that part – we’re moving beyond SNC-Lavalin issues now into this intrigue about why Wilson-Raybould (and now Jane Philpott) resigned and the handling of the controversy rather than the actual issue of pressure, which has been aired and it’s up to peoples’ judgments as to where the line of inappropriate is. And yeah, this does actually matter if we’re paying attention to things. Also around this time, the CEO of SNC-Lavalin issued a correction that said that yeah, the whole job losses thing was discussed as part of a conversation about the public interest, and so on.

And then came the day’s “bombshell.” Two competing outlets each had a story about how Trudeau and Wilson-Raybould had clashed over the last Supreme Court of Canada appointment, and she has wanted a more conservative judge from Manitoba which Trudeau balked at, and not only that, but she wanted to immediately elevate him to Chief Justice. That both outlets got the same story looks a lot like PMO engineered a leak, but did it in such a ham-fisted way that they neglected to mention that said judge also pulled out of the competition because his wife had breast cancer. Oops. And it’s pretty obvious that this was a way to try and draw attention to the fact that Wilson-Raybould was a pretty bad minister (the Canadian Press version of the story pointing out the clashes she had with caucus over her conservative positions on bills like assisted dying and genetic privacy – for which we should also remember that Trudeau stuck his neck out for her). Because as we’ve seen throughout this whole Affair that Trudeau or his staff haven’t been able to point to her record because she remained in the post for three years and Trudeau insists that she would still be in the position if Brison hadn’t resigned (which could also mean that they considered it a manageable situation). But if this PMO could be any more inept at handling this situation and stepping on yet more rakes, you’d almost feel embarrassed for them if this didn’t make it look like they were trying to politicise Supreme Court appointments. Cripes.

Meanwhile, the Ethics committee will be meeting today to discuss the Conservatives’ motion to try and hear testimony from Jody Wilson-Raybould at their committee instead, given that they have a Conservative chair. The problem there, however, is that the numbers are really against them – there are six voting Liberals on the committee to two voting Conservatives and one voting NDP MP. And even if the Conservatives could convince maverick MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, a permanent member of that committee, to vote with them, they’re still outnumbered by the rest of the Liberals. Even if by some miracle they agree to hold hearings on the matter, unless Trudeau offers yet another waiver (which he seems not inclined to), then we’re left with more silence from Wilson-Raybould, and we’ll be no better off. And then it’ll be a new round of Andrew Scheer screaming “cover up!” (Kady O’Malley’s Process Nerd column offers a look at what some of the possible outcomes of the day are.)

In punditry, Andrew Coyne delivers some not undeserved outrage at the tactic to try and take a shot at a sitting judge to try and discredit Wilson-Raybould. He also takes entirely correct umbrage with journalists braying for Wilson-Raybould and Philpott to be kicked out of caucus, and lo, here’s Tasha Kheiriddin doing just that, insisting that Trudeau looks “weak” the longer he keeps them in the fold. Because policing caucus loyalty is something that We The Media apparently excel at.

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Roundup: Musings from a non-committee member

It was another day of clutched pearls as Liberal MP Francis Drouin, who moved the motion at the stunt committee meeting on Wednesday to adjourn until the planned meeting next week, spoke to CBC about the fact that he thinks that they’ve heard enough and it’s time to move to the next phase of the committee. The problem? That Drouin isn’t actually a member of said committee, so his opinion doesn’t really matter. That he was at the committee on Wednesday is largely because his riding is not far from Ottawa, and that tends to be what happens when emergency meetings get called – most of the regular members don’t end up showing up because of travel times and commitments (or in this case, it’s the middle of March Break, and some of them have families with kids that they don’t see nearly enough). Now, if the Liberals meet on Tuesday, and put a bunch of ringers on the committee when they decide to go in camera to talk next steps for witnesses and timetables, and they decide they’ve had enough, well then, yes, we will have something to complain about. But that hasn’t happened yet, there isn’t any indication about that happening, so let’s all just calm down. Drouin is entitled to his own opinions, but he won’t be making any decisions here.

Should the justice committee opt to end the investigation, here are options that Jody Wilson-Raybould could use to “speak her truth” some more (though given how tactical her silence has been, I wouldn’t hold my breath). I also suspect that after their dire warnings yesterday, the opposition are going to start procedural shenanigans in order to try and force the government to carry on the hearings, but we’ll see how that unfolds.

In related news, it turns out that SNC-Lavalin also tried to recruit the Quebec justice minister to lobby for a DPA on their behalf. As well, a luxury condo in Toronto owned by the Gaddafi family, redecorated at SNC-Lavalin’s expense, has been sitting empty since 2009.

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Roundup: So concerned they’re going to data mine

Because we couldn’t possibly have a weekend without trying to force developments in the Double-Hyphen Affair, Andrew Scheer called a press conference on Sunday to demand that Justin Trudeau let Jody Wilson-Raybould “speak the full truth” before the justice committee, which is set to meet again on Wednesday to consider next steps in what witnesses they want to hear from. The Conservatives in particular are keen to hear if Wilson-Raybould thinks that Trudeau lied. Scheer also launched a petition site so that Canadians can let Trudeau know that he should “let her speak.” Of course, it’s also about data-mining in advance of the next election, but that’s par for the course for them.

Of course, the consensus among lawyers and political operatives is that Wilson-Raybould has been free to speak all along, and the fact that Michael Wernick and Gerald Butts have spoken about the times in question – and have stated explicitly that there was no legal advice proffered on this issue so it can’t be a question of solicitor-client privilege. Add to that, she has always had the ability to use her parliamentary privilege to say whatever she wants in the House of Commons. So this concern that she can’t speak is a bit overblown – or perhaps should be considered as concern trolling. Regardless, the longer this issue goes on, the more it’s clear that it becomes an issue of who can be considered the more credible witness, because there is no right or wrong answer here. Partisans will each take their own lessons, and eventually we’ll move on, but maybe not until the Liberals stop stepping all over their own message, whenever that will be.

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Roundup: A policy without details, part eleventy

Earlier this week, the Conservatives unveiled a new election policy, which was about removing the GST on home heating. For those of you who remember, this used to be an NDP policy that never went anywhere. It’s populist in that its economically illiterate and won’t help those who need it most, but gives a bigger break to the wealthy. But over the past couple of days, economists have been digging into just what this entails, so I figured I would showcase some of that discussion, to get a better sense of a promise that comes with few details about implementation. (Full thread here).

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Double-Hyphen Affair developments

There was a slightly unexpected development in the Double-Hyphen Affair yesterday when the Federal Court decision on SNC-Lavalin’s request for judicial review of the Director of Public Prosecutions’ decision not to offer them a deferred prosecution agreement was released, and to the surprise of nobody who has paid the slightest bit of attention, it was denied because this isn’t something that is reviewable by the courts. So that means the prosecution goes ahead, barring the Attorney General issuing a directive that would override the DPP’s decision. In related news, here’s a deeper look at just who SNC-Lavalin was consorting with abroad, and for all of his demands for Justin Trudeau’s resignation, Andrew Scheer says he won’t introduce any non-confidence motion. Hmmm…

And because the hot takes are still coming on this, Chris Selley wonders whether there will be utility to prosecuting a company if it takes four years to even decide whether to prosecute, during which time the company has undergone an ethics and compliance overhaul. Andrew Coyne wonders why any company would bother with the courts when they can lobby as effectively as SNC-Lavalin has (but perhaps it’s because SNC just plays that game better than anyone else). Martin Patriquin supposes that Trudeau may be playing this whole Affair that will benefit him in the long term. Colby Cosh (rightly) clocks the Liberals’ supposed commitment to internationalism also taking a beating in light of the Affair given that it is centred on SNC-Lavalin’s corrupt practices in Libya.

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QP: But why won’t you waive all confidences?

In advance of the much-anticipated testimony from Jody Wilson-Raybould at committee, MPs were gathered for proto-PMQs. Andrew Scheer led off in French, reading that the prime minister is still dictating what Wilson-Raybould is able to say. Trudeau stood up, with a script, and he disputed that by insisting that they waived confidences and privilege so that she can give a full airing. Scheer switched to English to repeat the accusation, and Trudeau put down the script to repeat his points, calling that waiver unprecedented because Canadians need to hear different perspectives on the matter. Scheer insisted that the fine print shows that something happened, and Trudeau repeated that they waived any confidences or privileges that would constrain her. Scheer tried yet again to insist that there was still something being hidden, and Trudeau responded with a soliloquy about how seriously they take the rule of law and our institutions. Scheer demanded to know why he wouldn’t waive any remaining privilege, and Trudeau reminded him that there is a specific issue at play. Guy Caron was up next, and in French, he repeated the same concern that Wilson-Raybould was still being muzzled, and Trudeau responded that they had confidence in the processes underway, which was why they waived those confidences. Caron insisted that they were only going to get half of the story, and Trudeau gave one of his disappointed replies about how he understands that the opposition has a job to do but that they are playing politics. Charlie Angus was up next to give the sanctimonious English version of the question, and Trudeau repeated that they waived confidentiality in order to let her speak. Angus demanded Trudeau appear before committee to testify, and Trudeau decried his desperate partisan approach, citing his language in describing how Cabinet government works.

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Roundup: Scheer’s own personal Brexit idea

You may have heard the Conservatives making a big push over the past couple of weeks about promising that they would bow to Quebec’s wishes and let them have a single tax return (as in, surrender the federal authority to collect income tax in the province, as opposed to Quebec returning to the system that every other province uses by which the federal government collects all taxes and turns over their provincial share). While the Conservatives portray it as a simple administrative change, and that there wouldn’t even need to be any job losses – just put those 5000 CRA employees in Quebec to work on tax evasion! – it’s really a lot more complicated than that. While Alan Freeman wrote about the history and why it’s naked pandering to Quebec, tax economist Kevin Milligan walks through the complexity, and quite tellingly, notes that this is a Brexit-like proposal from Scheer – bold idea, no proposal of how to implement it. And yes, that is a problem.

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