Tag Archives: Election 2025

Roundup: Danielle Smith’s weapon of mass distraction

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Alberta premier Danielle Smith continues to be in increasing hot water—and oh, look, her justice minister is related by marriage to someone at the centre of the healthcare procurement scandal—so she has decided to go full-bore into her weapon of mass distraction, which is to attack the federal government and to try and call out Mark Carney for…reasons. She’s asking Carney for a “reset” of relations with Alberta (translation: Give me everything I want), because of course she is. One of the things she announced was a new court challenge of the clean electricity regulations, because of course she is. Nothing like making the lawyers a bunch more money.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1917945085674791322

Throughout this, Smith insists she’s not stoking separatism *cough* and that these are just “hypotheticals” about the group of loons in the province itching to trigger a plebiscite by starting to gather signatures (before the bill has even passed), but the fact that she is lowering the threshold for just this eventually is a sign that she knows she’s doing it deliberately. And hey, she even says that there’s no appetite in the province for their own separate pension plan after all (because she got spanked by the reality that she couldn’t raid the majority of the CPP on the way out), so that must mean she’s serious about not stoking separatism, right? Does she think we’re all stupid and can’t see through her transparent bullshit?

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lo4edxbfjs2l

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lo4eimwtas2l

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lo4ekdqy2s2l

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lo4en275nc2l

Of course, because Scott Moe can’t help himself, he said that he’s a “true Canadian” but wouldn’t stop a public vote on separation if they triggered a plebiscite under provincial legislation. So…as premier he’s willing to also drive out investment and opportunity from companies that have no interest in dealing with this kind of nonsense? Wow, that’s some smart politicking!

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack late Thursday set houses ablaze in Zaporizhzhia and injured 14, but didn’t cause any deaths.

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Roundup: 611 votes short

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In more election fallout, it looks like the Liberals were just 611 votes, between two Ontario ridings and Nunavut, from getting a majority Parliament. That’s an incredibly close number for this race, and once again goes to show how every vote really does count, particularly in smaller ridings. There is also some pretty good analysis from the numbers to show that all those southwestern Ontario seats that went Conservative was not because of progressive vote-splitting, but because they were quite clearly turned off of the NDP. That clarity is going to matter if the party wants to start rethinking their path forward. Oh, and the vast majority of NDP candidates didn’t make their ten percent vote threshold for Elections Canada rebates, so the party is going to really be hurting financially for the next couple of years.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1917541319209046324

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1917541365925253229

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1917678086385959124

Elsewhere, every legacy media journalist is trying to get a story about NDP MPs crossing the floor to the Liberals (they won’t), or about Elizabeth May either becoming Speaker or getting into Cabinet, neither of which is going to happen. Ever. Especially Speaker because, as much as I respect May, nobody in the House of Commons is going to vote to put her in the Big Chair because they don’t want a sanctimonious scold in the position. There’s a reason they have voted in incredibly weak chairs for the past couple of Parliaments, and why they didn’t vote for Geoff Regan a second time when he was being a firmer hand. Stop indulging in these stupid fantasies. It’s not going to happen. Oh, and no, official party status isn’t something that is going to be negotiated, much as Don Davies likes to claim that the magic number of 12 MPs is “arbitrary,” but it’s not. You need that many MPs to fit onto committees, and that’s already doubling up. You physically cannot have enough MPs to be in all places when there are six+ committees meeting at the same time outside of QP.

Meanwhile, taking advantage of Carney’s win for her own ends is Danielle Smith, who introduced a very Trump-like package of electoral law amendments which brings back big corporate money into Alberta politics, feeds conspiracy theories, and lowers the threshold for citizen-initiated referendums, and while she didn’t outright say she would bring a separation referendum, essentially encouraged someone else to, and they already started gathering signatures. You might ask whose interest this serves, and the answer is hers, in part because she is facing a major growing scandal about health services procurement that is getting bigger by the day, and the former Cabinet minister she has since expelled from caucus, who tried speaking up about the issue, tabled a bunch more documents about what he knew, and it’s pretty damning stuff. So, what is Smith’s best weapon of mass-distraction? Stoking separatist sentiment, pretending she’s not behind it, and watching it take over the news cycle. It’s terrible, and nobody should take their eye off the ball while she pulls the fire alarm.

"If you or any other Canadians are not happy living on Treaty lands, they are free to apply for citizenship elsewhere."Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation issues a scathing rebuke of Danielle Smith's talks on a national unity crisis.

— Courtney Theriault (@ctheriault.bsky.social) 2025-05-01T03:29:35.719Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones attacked Odesa early morning, killing two and injuring at least five. A Ukrainian drone strike hit a weapons factory in Russia. South Korean intelligence says that some 600 North Korean troops have been killed out of a deployment of 15,000 soldiers.

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Roundup: Numbers firming up post-election

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The numbers in the election have firmed up more, and the final count is that the Liberals managed 169 seats–just three shy of a majority. That does mean they can likely work with the NDP’s seven to maintain a functional majority in most things, but as I wrote in my column, some of this is going to depend on the mood of the Bloc, given that they will be the force to be reckoned with on the committees now that the NDP will no longer have any seats on them.

The King of Canada and his prime minister would have a lot to talk about on the day after a federal electionMaybe also about a regal Speech from the Throne to open the new Parliament?

— Patricia Treble (@patriciatreble.bsky.social) 2025-04-30T00:07:13.146Z

In election fallout stories:

  • Voter turnout was 68.6 percent, which is the highest in 31 years.
  • Here is a recounting of Bruce Fanjoy’s election night as his team learned in the wee hours that they had formally ousted Poilievre.
  • CBC has six takeaways from the election
  • Poilievre may have to vacate Stornoway if he doesn’t have a seat.
  • Yves-François Blanchet is in the mood to collaborate for the time being, saying that the country needs stability and not the threat of another election.
  • Much of the Conservatives’ “economic brain trust” (ahem, such as it was) lost their seats, including Poilievre.
  • The Star hears from Conservatives and NDPers about where their parties go next.
  • Here are the fiscal consequences of the NDP losing official party status (but doesn’t actually explain the point is they don’t have enough MPs to put on committees).
  • Both Danielle Smith and Scott Moe gave their “congratulations” on Carney’s victory, but really, they just made more demands.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1917182119689793978

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones attacked Kharkiv and Dnipro overnight, killing at least one and injuring at least 46. Russian troops have also been trying to advance into the Sumy region.

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Roundup: A Liberal minority, with some fraught seat math

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Election Day got off to a bizarre start with Donald Trump sending out a bizarre post that was essentially taunting Canada to vote for the person who would make them the 51st state, which seemed to imply that he wanted them to vote for him, because he didn’t say a name, but it was weird.

It was not a result anyone had really hoped for—as I write this, the Liberals have not managed to cross the threshold for a majority, and they may or may not have a sustainable path to a de facto majority with NDP support, particularly once you figure in who is going to be Speaker. There were some losses of incumbents whom I am glad to see the backs of for various reasons.

Seat math aside, @alexandramendes.bsky.social is the one MP who should be Speaker.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T05:16:27.125Z

If we're going to get pedantic, it's majority or minority *parliament,* not government.Government is government. It doesn't change depending on the composition of the legislature.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T02:21:46.111Z

The most dramatic part of the night was Jamil Jivani’s CBC interview after his win, in which he threw an absolute tantrum to go about savaging Doug Ford, and I’ve seen a number of conservatives on social media taking the route of blaming Ford for their loss rather than the choices that they made over the course of the campaign (but then again, most politicians are that allergic to self-reflection).

The Bloc lost seats, but could be the ones to hold the balance of power, depending how the seat math plays out once the final results are tallied.

The NDP were decimated, down to about seven seats (give or take, that may shift overnight), which is below official party status (meaning they can’t fill enough seats on committees), and Jagmeet Singh lost his own seat in the process. He announced that he’ll be resigning as leader once an interim leader can be chosen, but insisted that the NDP “built Canada” (erm…) so they deserved a future.

Singh: "New Democrats literally built this country…"Erm, you weren't a party for pretty much the first century of this country post-Confederation.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T04:47:25.595Z

Pierre Poilievre promised to keep fighting, and patted himself on the back for having “Denied the NDP and Liberals enough seats to form a coalition government” (though that seat math may yet change). He was gracious enough to congratulate Carney on his win, but also said that “We will do our job to hold the government to account,” which is likely to mean less actual accountability than more procedural warfare, because that’s how they’ve operated for two parliaments now. There is also a question as to whether Poilievre will even win his own riding—he has consistently been trailing, but it’s been slow to count (because of the Longest Ballot jackasses), but at the time I posted this, he was still trailing.

Edit: It looks like Poilievre has now lost the riding, so we’ll see how that shakes out in the weeks ahead.

Mostly empty room with Poilievre expected to speak within minutes. The Conservative leader is still trailing in his own riding.

— Alex Boutilier (@alexboutilier.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T04:52:49.862Z

At least Poilievre is being moderately gracious in defeat, and didn't let his supporters boo Carney.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T04:59:58.020Z

As for Mark Carney, he promised three things in his victory speech—humility, ambition, and unity. It was an interesting speech, and he set some goals for himself that will be difficult to accomplish, but we’ll see if he can manage. In any case, he’ll face a hostile parliament with few partners to work with, with little political experience in navigating it, while living on borrowed time, as he has the massive job of reorienting our economy and disentangling us from the Americans. It’s going to be a very interesting couple of years, if we can get this parliament to last that long.

Carney commits to admitting his mistakes openly and to learning from them quickly.That could be a *very* big change from his predecessor… (Or anyone in politics, really). If, of course, he actually follows through with it.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T05:28:20.772Z

Pretty much the consensus.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T07:58:38.824Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 166 drones at Ukraine overnight, and one of them killed a child after hitting a residential building in Samarivskyi in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Putin announced a ceasefire from May 8-10 to honour the victory in the Second World War, but we’ll see if he actually lives up to it.

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Roundup: Tragedy marring the final election push

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Day thirty-six, the final day of the campaign, was marred by the tragedy at the Lapu-Lapu festival in Vancouver. Some of the campaigns, particularly the Liberals, scrambled to figure out how to respond to it, without losing their election momentum while also trying to be respectful of what took place. Others, however, were less scrupulous.

Mark Carney was Hamilton, and delayed the morning’s events in light of Vancouver, before he made a statement about it. The campaign was supposed to stop in Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Richmond and Victoria, but cancelled the rally in Calgary. The Richmond stop was going to be cancelled, but was back on in a smaller capacity, as with all of the interactions over the day. Vancouver, Carney and the premier attended a memorial to lay flowers. Carney returns to Ottawa today, where he will hold his election night event.

Pierre Poilievre was in Oakville, Ontario, for his pre-planned rally, before adding a stop at a church in Mississauga to meet with members of the Filipino community there regarding the tragedy in Vancouver. Poilievre then made stops in Pickering, Peterborough, and Keene before reaching his riding in Carleton for a final rally. There were, however, some online ads the Conservatives put out that appeared to take advantage of the tragedy and fold it into their “safe streets” slogans, which was immediately pretty ghoulish. Poilievre will be in Ottawa for election night.

Jagmeet Singh was in Penticton, BC, where he also spoke about the tragedy in Vancouver, as he had apparently left the festival minutes before it happened. He still held his events in Oliver, New Westminster, Vancouver, and Coquitlam. Singh has a campaign event in Port Moody in the morning (really?), will attend a day of mourning event in Burnaby, and hold his election night event there.

In other campaign news, the CBC made a sad attempt at doing some campaign fact-checking (that gave equal weight to outdated statistics and absolute ludicrous lies). Here is an attempt to find meaning in where the leaders’ campaigns took them around the country.

It’s Election Day! Go vote!

Ukraine Dispatch

North Korea has confirmed for the first time that they sent troops to Russia to fight against Ukrainians in the Kursk region, calling them “heroes,” and that it’s an “honour” to ally with a country like Russia.

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Roundup: The final Saturday blitz

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Day thirty-five, and the final Saturday was marked by a number of stops from all of the leaders to hit as many locations as they can before people vote. Mark Carney was King City, Ontario, and spoke about reshaping the international trading system thanks to Trump’s crisis, and how he planned to do just that. From there, the campaign stopped in Newmarket, Aurora, Markham, Mississauga, and then Windsor. Carney will have another full day of stops, hitting Hamilton, Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Vancouver and Victoria in a single day. Oof.

Pierre Poilievre was in Delta, BC, calling for record voter turnout as he sees that as his path to beating the Liberals, and then headed to Sudbury for a rally. Poilievre will be in Oakville, and then end the day in his home riding for a rally.

Jagmeet Singh was in London, Ontario, for a campaign stop but no formal announcement, followed by stops in Windsor before flying to Vancouver and Burnaby. Singh hits Penticton, BC, followed by Oliver, New Westminster, Vancouver, and Coquitlam today.

In other campaign news, here is a comparison between the Liberal and Conservative proposals around national defence. Here is a look at people in blue collar unions willing to give the Conservatives a chance. The Star has their eyes on ten ridings that they say offer key narratives about the election. And a woman who wore a trans rights shirt to the Conservative rally in Saskatoon was removed by police, and has questions as to why.

This is so Canadian. Body Break doing a special elbows up get out to vote segment.

— Michelle Keep (@jmkeep.bsky.social) 2025-04-26T12:43:12.878Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 149 drones at Ukraine overnight, killing a man in Pavlohrad and injuring others. Russia claims that they have driven all Ukrainian forces from Kursk region, but Ukraine says they are still fighting. (More about the significance here). President Zelenskyy had a meeting with Trump on the sidelines of the Pope’s funeral in Rome, and Trump seemed to indicate that he’s afraid Putin has been playing him and has no intention of seeking peace. (You think?)

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Roundup: Leaders on the final push

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Day thirty-four, and leaders are all in the final push, making last-minute stops in key ridings that they either hope to keep, or win outright. Mark Carney was in Sault Ste. Marie to visit Algoma Steel, where he gave the Ontario-centric and, more importantly, steel-focused, version of his pitch to voters. He did say, in response to a question, that he was open to electoral reform but didn’t think that a prime minister should champion it because it politicises it. (I swear to Zeus, if this turns into another round of “citizen assembly” nonsense, I will lose my mind). He also said he’s open to reviewing the Access to Information regime (which every leader says), and called on Israel to end the blockade on food aid to Gaza. The then made stops in Georgetown, Cambridge, and London, Ontario. He also made his appearance at the virtual AFN forum, where he committed to implementation of UNDRIP. Carney is sticking in Ontario today with events in King City, Newmarket, Aurora, Markham, Mississauga, and then Windsor.

Pierre Poilievre was in Saskatoon, where he laid out his plans for his first 100 days in office (which is another imported Americanism), and it involved promising to sit through the summer in order to pass three massive omnibus bills that dealt with large swaths of his agenda. Part of his hundred days, however, was a promise to get a deal with Trump, which is not only ridiculous because nobody is getting an actual deal with Trump, but he’s been saying that Carney thinks he can control Trump but nobody can, and yet he’s simultaneously insisting that only he can control Trump enough to get a deal. It’s laughable that he thinks this is at all serious. Poilievre then stopped in Calgary for a rally, where he called for bigger voter turnout, before heading to Nanoose Bay, BC. Poilievre will be in Delta, BC, today for one of his finally rallies.

Poilievre is still peddling the fantasy that *he* can make a deal with Trump that will stick, after he says Carney is delusional for thinking he can control Trump.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-25T15:44:59.656Z

Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto, where he just invented the threat that the Liberals will cut healthcare if there aren’t enough NDP MPs elected, which is outrageous bullshit. For one, the problem is with the provinces, and they have long-term funding agreements with the federal government, and two, the threats of cutting healthcare are at the provincial level. This is just outright mendacity from an increasingly desperate Singh. His campaign then stopped in Hamilton and London, Ontario. Singh starts the day in London, then heads to Windsor before flying to Vancouver and Burnaby.

Singh is just literally making shit up at this point.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-25T15:02:12.089Z

On a side note, Yves-François Blanchet made the statement today that Canada is an “artificial country with very little meaning,” in response to questions about previous remarks about sitting in a “foreign parliament.” While this is probably self-defeating at a time of heightened patriotism, what Blanchet is really trying to do is appeal to ethnic nationalism in Quebec. All countries are artificial, but a good many around the world are bound together by a common ethnicity and language, and Canada is not. Certain elements of Quebec would like to think that they have a common ethnicity and language, but this is the kind of ethnic nationalism that fuels racism and xenophobia. It’s what François Legault has been appealing to as he attacks the rights of religious minorities. And Blanchet is trying to appeal to it to say that Liberals can’t represent Quebec because only the Bloc can truly represent “ethnic” Quebeckers. But he’s also been hoping that he’ll get a bump in the polls like he did last time after Shachi Kurl raised (badly formed) questions about Law 21, which Blanchet was able to spin into “She’s calling us racists!” and that gave him the boost in the polls he needed. It looks like he won’t get that this time around.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1916013202388721995

In other campaign news, Equal Voice’s tally shows that the Liberals, Conservatives, and Bloc are all running fewer women as candidates in this election. Elections Canada says that Poilievre’s riding of Carleton had the highest advance turnout in the country. None of the parties have been clear about how they plan to meet existing climate commitments. Singh is trying to convince George Stroumboulopoulos that their poll numbers are rebounding (really!) so they’ll come out of the election with “lots” of re-elected MPs. (Aside from the quarter of his caucus that’s not running again?)

For Canadians being inundated by riding-level polls right now:The data is crap if it has no dates, small samples (<800), high margins of error.The people showing them to you are trying to persuade you to vote for their own preferred party. It's sales pitch, not an evidence-based argument.

— Jared Wesley (@jaredwesley.ca) 2025-04-26T01:02:15.747Z

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lnnrnrygrs2r

Yes. Yes I do.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-25T13:35:18.917Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A drone attack on Pavlohrad killed five and injured at least eleven. A Russian general was killed by a car bomb, and Russia is blaming Ukraine (who have not yet claimed responsibility).

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1915669752787149047

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Roundup: Admitting to threats on the call with Trump

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Day thirty-three, and while the leaders made their final pitches, the talk remained mostly about Poilievre’s own riding, whether the polls could be believed, or the fact that he scheduled a last-minute rally on the last night of the campaign there, or the fact that people from the war room who were supposed to be sent to Peterborough were sent there to canvas instead. So there’s that.

Mark Carney was in Port Moody, BC, and gave another BC-centric campaign pitch, where he faced questions about his call with Trump in March, and whether Trump did make 51st state comments. Carney admitted he did because this is Trump we’re talking about, but the rest of the discussion was about sovereign countries making a deal, and so he left it at that. That didn’t stop the Conservatives and NDP from howling about it, the Conservatives in particular going off about how Carney is a liar (erm, you have looked in a mirror, right?) and so on. From there, Carney headed to Winnipeg for a campaign event. Carney will be in Sault Ste. Marie this morning, and then heads to Georgetown, Cambridge, and London, Ontario.

Pierre Poilievre was in Halifax at an auto dealership to proclaim his promise to scrap the electric vehicle mandate, but made up a completely bullshit claim that said mandate would impose a “$20,000 tax on gas-powered cars,” which was ludicrously untrue. The Conservative platform also claims that they would somehow get billions in revenue from scrapping said mandate, but he also promised to uphold any of the deals with manufacturers or battery plants for EVs in Canada, so it’s another case of magical growth projections with no basis in reality. From there he headed to a rally in Saskatoon. Poilievre starts the day in Saskatoon, and heads to Nanoose Bay, BC for another rally.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1915501642373640336

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1915428323624206805

Jagmeet Singh was in Winnipeg to declare that he would ensure that the government didn’t put a laundry list of things on the table as bargaining chips in trade talks, most of which they never would anyway, so it’s yet another example of empty posturing. Singh then headed to Toronto. Singh starts his day in Toronto, before heading to Hamilton and London, looking to hold onto their seats in those ridings.

In other campaign news, the CBC has a look at Calgary, where the Liberals have a chance to win as many as four seats. There is also talk about how the federal Conservatives fell out with their Nova Scotia brethren, which included a threatening call from Jenni Byrne. Meanwhile, Singh tells the Star that he didn’t go for an early election (in spite of the constant threats) to hand Poilievre a majority, even if it meant they could win more seats, and insists he has no regrets. This while the NDP are back to running phantom candidates in Quebec ridings, meaning they still have not grassroots in the province.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-04-24T21:27:18.825Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The death toll from the massive attack on Kyiv has reached 12, with at least 90 injured, which also prompted Trump to react (but then said Putin’s concessions included not invading all of Ukraine, which…is not a concession). The missiles used in that strike were North Korean in origin.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1915360570745786543

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Roundup: Singh says he’s not dead yet

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Day thirty-two, and we are reaching the phase of the campaign where resources and people are being shifted to ridings that they are most concerned about, and the leaders’ stops will reflect this. There is also talk that the Conservatives are pouring resources into Poilievre’s own riding because it increasingly feels in jeopardy, in part because the Liberal challenger has been working the doors for four years.

Mark Carney was in Victoria, where he gave the BC-centric version of his campaign pitch, before making stops in White Rock, New Westminster, and Surrey, which is a direct play for the NDP seats in the area. Carney will start the day in Port Moody, BC, before heading to Winnipeg.

Pierre Poilievre was in Stoney Creek, Ontario, where he thanked police associations for their endorsement before reiterating his plan to give them new powers to dismantle tent encampments (as though that solves any of the underlying problems that has led to their rise). He then headed to Trenton, Nova Scotia, for a rally. Poilievre will start the day in Halifax before heading to Saskatoon, as he has not yet stopped in Saskatchewan this election.

Jagmeet Singh was in Edmonton to re-announce his “plan” for national rent control, which is exclusive provincial jurisdiction, and to declare that he’s not dead yet, and there are still five days left. He then headed to Winnipeg to shore up their two seats there. Singh participated in an AFN virtual meeting, where he made a tonne of promises he can’t keep.  Singh will start his day in Winnipeg before heading to Toronto.

In other campaign news, the after it was pointed out that the Conservatives left out their promise to “fight woke ideology” from their platform document, they said that was a publishing error and put it back in. The Logic has their longread profileof Poilievre. Mélanie Joly has openly called for a majority parliament while Carney has been cagey, so cue the tut-tutting about “arrogance” and so on. The Star fact-checks Carney’s statements last week (and this remains the dumbest possible fact-check methodology).

Poilievre says he doesn't watch TV, but "a little bit of UCF on my YouTube." That…tracks, actually.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-23T14:54:48.403Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A massive missile and drone strike hit Kyiv overnight, killing nine and injuring at least 63. Russian drones killed seven in a strike on the city of Marhanets, while an energy facility in Kherson was destroyed by Russian artillery and drone attacks. A Ukrainian drone strike damaged a Russian drone production site in Tatarstan. President Zelenskyy is rejecting any “peace” proposal that would surrender Crimea to Russia permanently.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1915005378225373500

Continue reading →

Roundup: A “fun with numbers” platform

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Day thirty-one, and the Conservatives swallowed up the news cycle with the release of their “costed” platform at long last, and well, it soon became clear as to why that was the case. (Some campaign photos here). Mark Carney was in Quebec City to reiterate his plans focused on Quebec in particular, especially as they relate to Quebec identity and the economy, before lambasting the Conservatives’ “costed” platform (more on that below). Carney then had stops in Shefford, Saint-Bruno, and Laval.

Pierre Poilievre was in Woodbridge, Ontario, where he finally unveiled his “costed” platform, and the term is used very loosely because hoo boy. It was mostly full of magical mystery math that books phantom revenues—including from resource projects that don’t exist and likely won’t exist in a four-year timeframe—and from cuts to things like consulting services or government IT, which rarely actually delivers real savings. Oh, and it doesn’t actually eliminate the deficit like they’ve been touting, even with the overly optimistic phantom revenues. (For contrast, the Liberals’ platform doesn’t include revenue assumptions). There was a promise to hold referendums for tax increases, which a) neuters the role of Parliament, b) has blown up in the faces of those who instituted this in places like California, and c) is empty posturing because you can’t bind a future government, so the law is easily repealed. And then, to distract from the faulty promises and bad math, Poilievre veered into a performance about a document from Policy Horizons Canada which he claimed were doomsday forecasts when they are actually a number of largely implausible scenarios to force policy-makers to consider some various worst-case scenarios, and are not in fact forecasts at all, not that he would tell you differently. (Write-ups from CBC, The Star, The Logic, the National Post, CTV, and the Globe and Mail). At some point in the day, Poilievre attended a “virtual forum” with the AFN, but remained cagey about his criticisms of UNDRIP. Poilievre later held a rally in Vaughan. He’ll be in Stoney Creek, Ontario, this morning, before heading to Trenton, Nova Scotia.

The Conservative plan is out and, ooof, is this costing a disaster.There's a whole bunch of phantom revenues booked here, and the GST housing pledge is costed at under $2B. Given their proposed eligibility criteria, it should be more in the 4-6B range.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T14:40:58.000Z

The Conservative plan books extra revenue from economic growth caused by their policies. The idea that economic growth will lead to improved finances isn't unreasonable. Budget 2024 shows that 100 bps of economic growth is worth $5B a year to the federal budget.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T17:51:23.000Z

The Conservatives are booking anywhere from $3B-10B of additional revenue each year from economic-related growth. The average year sees an additional $6B+ in revenue, associated with 128bps in economic growth.This is a near doubling of TD Econ's growth forecasts.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T17:51:29.000Z

The CPC platform books *extra* revenue of about $13B from their new capital gains deferral idea.But allowing people to defer capital gains will *cost* revenue.I'm guessing they assume *huge* new economic activity will be generated? You'd maybe need about $100B in new GDP to do that. Interesting.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T15:38:08.921Z

Or the whole debacle when the established Shared Services and cut their budget by the projected savings before they had done any of the enterprise transformation work.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T15:33:29.326Z

A couple of other thoughts:-Repealing Bill C-75 won't do much for bail other than roll back tougher bail conditions for domestic violence-Repealing Bill C-83 will do nothing about Paul Bernardo because the bill was about solitary confinement-Repealing Bill C-5 won't stop auto theft.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T19:13:59.627Z

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1914778670381838356

In all seriousness, I haven't seen "fun with numbers" costing like this in a Conservative platform since the 2014 Ontario PC campaign.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T14:52:57.000Z

Jagmeet Singh was in Vancouver, where he mostly shit-talked Brookfield and Carney before begging people to vote NDP in order to prevent Carney from getting a “supermajority” (which is not a Thing in Canadian politics). Singh then headed to his home riding of Burnaby, and then to Edmonton. Singh remains in Edmonton this morning before heading to Winnipeg.

In other campaign news, Elections Canada says that a record 7.3 million people voted in the advance polls over the Easter long weekend. Former PBO Kevin Page rated the Liberal platform more favourably than the Conservatives’ (for fairly obvious reasons). Here are two more longread profiles of Carney, this time from the Globe and Mail and The Logic, and each covers different aspects of crises he’s faced in the past.

https://bsky.app/profile/blakeshaffer.bsky.social/post/3lnh54yn6gk2i

Ukraine Dispatch

Three people were injured in the Russian drone attack on Odesa overnight Monday. One woman was killed and some 26 others were injured in a guided bomb attack on Zaporizhzhia yesterday. President Zelenskyy indicated that Chinese nationals are working in Russian drone factories, and that Russia may have stolen Chinese drone technology.

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