Tag Archives: Elections Canada

Roundup: Sore from moving those goalposts

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I have to wonder if the Conservatives and their proxies are exhausted from shifting goal posts over the past couple of days, and whether they remembered to lift from the knees and not from their backs, because hoo boy, the commentary coming out of the Carney meeting at the Oval Office has been something to behold. The common cry is that Carney promised on the campaign trail that he would be tough with Trump, and yet in the meeting, he engaged in flattery and didn’t object to things Trump said that were objectively wrong or offensive to Canadians. “He said the relationship was over and now he’s saying this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship!” has been a common refrain. Give me a break.

Can you imagine what they would have said if Carney went to the meeting and was combative with Trump, and put himself in a position for JD Vance to start piling on and creating the conditions for another Zelenskyy moment? Those same Conservatives would have howled that Carney was endangering the relationship with our closes trading partner. And the thing about the relationship is being mischaracterised (mendaciously)—Carney said that the old relationship of deeper ties and close cooperation was over. And that is objectively true. He also said this is the start of a new relationship with the US, which is also true—we can’t carry on like the old relationship is still there, and he has to start somewhere with the new one, and he’s managed to do so in a way that has placated Trump for the time being, which is an incredibly hard thing to do given his mercurial nature, and it may not last. But he had to sit there and say things that Trump thought was flattering (but really weren’t if you actually listened), and he did correct a number of Trump’s insane rants (like saying they don’t do much business with Canada when we’re their top export destination). But “getting tough” with Trump has to be done carefully given his volatile nature, and doing performance art isn’t the way to do it. Trying to insist that Carney was somehow misrepresenting himself or the task at hand in an election need to go give their heads a shake.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre says he’s going to spend the summer “listening and learning,” but well, this is someone who has spent his entire adult life confirming his priors, so I don’t expect much in the way of introspection as to the reasons the campaign failed—particularly as Andrew Scheer was on Power & Politics saying they need to make “refinements” on their strategy, which sounds an awful lot like they plan on fighting the last war rather than actually learning  a single lesson. This being said, it sounds like Poilievre has reached out to Doug Ford’s office to try and mend some fences, so maybe they learned something? Maybe? We’ll see.

Unfortunately…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-07T13:28:07.303Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s “three-day ceasefire” went into effect this morning, but there are reports that guided bombs were still launched against Sumy in the early hours of the morning (but we all know how well Russia lives by its agreements). Ukrainian drones kept interfering with airports around Moscow for a third straight day as foreign leaders were arriving for Victory Day festivities in Red Square.

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Roundup: The King is coming!

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Mark Carney gave his first post-election news conference yesterday, and he ensured that it was something of a news tsunami, but also that the tone and tenor of his government is vastly different from that of his predecessor. (Well, his predecessor post-2017ish. For the first couple of years, Trudeau was still trying pretty hard to hold to the things he campaigned on in a promise to be a generational change). This included some timelines for the next few weeks, and it’s a lot. So with that in mind, Carney goes to Washington on Tuesday to meet with Trump, the new Cabinet will be sworn in on the week of the 12th, Parliament will be recalled on the 26th for the election of a new Speaker, and then the 27th will be the Speech From the Throne, and it will be delivered by the King, for the first time since 1977 (and the first time a monarch has opened our parliament since 1957). In addition, he says we have the biggest reorientation of our economy to accomplish since the Second World War, and he’s going to balance the operating budget within three years with no cuts to services (indeed, the rollout of full dental care is continuing on schedule), and he’s not going to enter into any kind of formal arrangement with the NDP as there is no point in doing so. Here are five of the priorities outlined by Carney.

https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1918325678144884794

There will, of course, be a bunch of grumbling about the King arriving to deliver the Speech, but the thing we need to get out of the way is that he’s the King of Canada, not the King of the UK (or England, which hasn’t had a separate Crown since 1707) as far as we’re concerned, and so he’s not a “foreign monarch.” Canada has had a separate Crown from the UK since the Statute of Westminster in 1931, and even before that, the Crown in Canada manifested in very different ways from the UK since Princess Louise was the Chatelaine of Rideau Hall. (I have more on this in the Crown chapter of my book). The fact that we are bringing out the King to play a bigger role as our sovereignty is threatened is a reflection of just how different we are from the US, and why we will never be part of them, and because Trump idolises the royals, this becomes a thumb in his eye. We cannot forget that.

The other major development yesterday was that Conservative MP Damien Kurek has offered up his seat to Pierre Poilievre, so that he can return to the House of Commons, and surprising nobody, it’s one of the most conservative (and indeed, whitest) ridings in the country, where he got 81.8 percent of the vote in Monday’s election. While Carney said he would call the by-election at the earliest opportunity, Kurek can’t actually resign until a certain point because of rules in place, after which it’s a five-week campaign, and so that means it probably won’t happen until early July, so Poilievre will be out of the Chamber for the entire spring sitting (which is only slated to be about four weeks long). Kurek was six months away from qualifying for an MP pension, so one imagines that the party will work to compensate him in some way.

Ukraine Dispatch

A mass drone attack late Friday hit an apartment block in Kharkiv, injuring 46 people. The US State Department has approved the sale of $310 worth of training and sustainment for Ukraine’s F-16 fighter jets.

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Roundup: 611 votes short

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In more election fallout, it looks like the Liberals were just 611 votes, between two Ontario ridings and Nunavut, from getting a majority Parliament. That’s an incredibly close number for this race, and once again goes to show how every vote really does count, particularly in smaller ridings. There is also some pretty good analysis from the numbers to show that all those southwestern Ontario seats that went Conservative was not because of progressive vote-splitting, but because they were quite clearly turned off of the NDP. That clarity is going to matter if the party wants to start rethinking their path forward. Oh, and the vast majority of NDP candidates didn’t make their ten percent vote threshold for Elections Canada rebates, so the party is going to really be hurting financially for the next couple of years.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1917541319209046324

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1917541365925253229

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1917678086385959124

Elsewhere, every legacy media journalist is trying to get a story about NDP MPs crossing the floor to the Liberals (they won’t), or about Elizabeth May either becoming Speaker or getting into Cabinet, neither of which is going to happen. Ever. Especially Speaker because, as much as I respect May, nobody in the House of Commons is going to vote to put her in the Big Chair because they don’t want a sanctimonious scold in the position. There’s a reason they have voted in incredibly weak chairs for the past couple of Parliaments, and why they didn’t vote for Geoff Regan a second time when he was being a firmer hand. Stop indulging in these stupid fantasies. It’s not going to happen. Oh, and no, official party status isn’t something that is going to be negotiated, much as Don Davies likes to claim that the magic number of 12 MPs is “arbitrary,” but it’s not. You need that many MPs to fit onto committees, and that’s already doubling up. You physically cannot have enough MPs to be in all places when there are six+ committees meeting at the same time outside of QP.

Meanwhile, taking advantage of Carney’s win for her own ends is Danielle Smith, who introduced a very Trump-like package of electoral law amendments which brings back big corporate money into Alberta politics, feeds conspiracy theories, and lowers the threshold for citizen-initiated referendums, and while she didn’t outright say she would bring a separation referendum, essentially encouraged someone else to, and they already started gathering signatures. You might ask whose interest this serves, and the answer is hers, in part because she is facing a major growing scandal about health services procurement that is getting bigger by the day, and the former Cabinet minister she has since expelled from caucus, who tried speaking up about the issue, tabled a bunch more documents about what he knew, and it’s pretty damning stuff. So, what is Smith’s best weapon of mass-distraction? Stoking separatist sentiment, pretending she’s not behind it, and watching it take over the news cycle. It’s terrible, and nobody should take their eye off the ball while she pulls the fire alarm.

"If you or any other Canadians are not happy living on Treaty lands, they are free to apply for citizenship elsewhere."Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation issues a scathing rebuke of Danielle Smith's talks on a national unity crisis.

— Courtney Theriault (@ctheriault.bsky.social) 2025-05-01T03:29:35.719Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones attacked Odesa early morning, killing two and injuring at least five. A Ukrainian drone strike hit a weapons factory in Russia. South Korean intelligence says that some 600 North Korean troops have been killed out of a deployment of 15,000 soldiers.

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Roundup: A Liberal minority, with some fraught seat math

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Election Day got off to a bizarre start with Donald Trump sending out a bizarre post that was essentially taunting Canada to vote for the person who would make them the 51st state, which seemed to imply that he wanted them to vote for him, because he didn’t say a name, but it was weird.

It was not a result anyone had really hoped for—as I write this, the Liberals have not managed to cross the threshold for a majority, and they may or may not have a sustainable path to a de facto majority with NDP support, particularly once you figure in who is going to be Speaker. There were some losses of incumbents whom I am glad to see the backs of for various reasons.

Seat math aside, @alexandramendes.bsky.social is the one MP who should be Speaker.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T05:16:27.125Z

If we're going to get pedantic, it's majority or minority *parliament,* not government.Government is government. It doesn't change depending on the composition of the legislature.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T02:21:46.111Z

The most dramatic part of the night was Jamil Jivani’s CBC interview after his win, in which he threw an absolute tantrum to go about savaging Doug Ford, and I’ve seen a number of conservatives on social media taking the route of blaming Ford for their loss rather than the choices that they made over the course of the campaign (but then again, most politicians are that allergic to self-reflection).

The Bloc lost seats, but could be the ones to hold the balance of power, depending how the seat math plays out once the final results are tallied.

The NDP were decimated, down to about seven seats (give or take, that may shift overnight), which is below official party status (meaning they can’t fill enough seats on committees), and Jagmeet Singh lost his own seat in the process. He announced that he’ll be resigning as leader once an interim leader can be chosen, but insisted that the NDP “built Canada” (erm…) so they deserved a future.

Singh: "New Democrats literally built this country…"Erm, you weren't a party for pretty much the first century of this country post-Confederation.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T04:47:25.595Z

Pierre Poilievre promised to keep fighting, and patted himself on the back for having “Denied the NDP and Liberals enough seats to form a coalition government” (though that seat math may yet change). He was gracious enough to congratulate Carney on his win, but also said that “We will do our job to hold the government to account,” which is likely to mean less actual accountability than more procedural warfare, because that’s how they’ve operated for two parliaments now. There is also a question as to whether Poilievre will even win his own riding—he has consistently been trailing, but it’s been slow to count (because of the Longest Ballot jackasses), but at the time I posted this, he was still trailing.

Edit: It looks like Poilievre has now lost the riding, so we’ll see how that shakes out in the weeks ahead.

Mostly empty room with Poilievre expected to speak within minutes. The Conservative leader is still trailing in his own riding.

— Alex Boutilier (@alexboutilier.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T04:52:49.862Z

At least Poilievre is being moderately gracious in defeat, and didn't let his supporters boo Carney.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T04:59:58.020Z

As for Mark Carney, he promised three things in his victory speech—humility, ambition, and unity. It was an interesting speech, and he set some goals for himself that will be difficult to accomplish, but we’ll see if he can manage. In any case, he’ll face a hostile parliament with few partners to work with, with little political experience in navigating it, while living on borrowed time, as he has the massive job of reorienting our economy and disentangling us from the Americans. It’s going to be a very interesting couple of years, if we can get this parliament to last that long.

Carney commits to admitting his mistakes openly and to learning from them quickly.That could be a *very* big change from his predecessor… (Or anyone in politics, really). If, of course, he actually follows through with it.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T05:28:20.772Z

Pretty much the consensus.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-29T07:58:38.824Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 166 drones at Ukraine overnight, and one of them killed a child after hitting a residential building in Samarivskyi in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Putin announced a ceasefire from May 8-10 to honour the victory in the Second World War, but we’ll see if he actually lives up to it.

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Roundup: Tragedy marring the final election push

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Day thirty-six, the final day of the campaign, was marred by the tragedy at the Lapu-Lapu festival in Vancouver. Some of the campaigns, particularly the Liberals, scrambled to figure out how to respond to it, without losing their election momentum while also trying to be respectful of what took place. Others, however, were less scrupulous.

Mark Carney was Hamilton, and delayed the morning’s events in light of Vancouver, before he made a statement about it. The campaign was supposed to stop in Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Richmond and Victoria, but cancelled the rally in Calgary. The Richmond stop was going to be cancelled, but was back on in a smaller capacity, as with all of the interactions over the day. Vancouver, Carney and the premier attended a memorial to lay flowers. Carney returns to Ottawa today, where he will hold his election night event.

Pierre Poilievre was in Oakville, Ontario, for his pre-planned rally, before adding a stop at a church in Mississauga to meet with members of the Filipino community there regarding the tragedy in Vancouver. Poilievre then made stops in Pickering, Peterborough, and Keene before reaching his riding in Carleton for a final rally. There were, however, some online ads the Conservatives put out that appeared to take advantage of the tragedy and fold it into their “safe streets” slogans, which was immediately pretty ghoulish. Poilievre will be in Ottawa for election night.

Jagmeet Singh was in Penticton, BC, where he also spoke about the tragedy in Vancouver, as he had apparently left the festival minutes before it happened. He still held his events in Oliver, New Westminster, Vancouver, and Coquitlam. Singh has a campaign event in Port Moody in the morning (really?), will attend a day of mourning event in Burnaby, and hold his election night event there.

In other campaign news, the CBC made a sad attempt at doing some campaign fact-checking (that gave equal weight to outdated statistics and absolute ludicrous lies). Here is an attempt to find meaning in where the leaders’ campaigns took them around the country.

It’s Election Day! Go vote!

Ukraine Dispatch

North Korea has confirmed for the first time that they sent troops to Russia to fight against Ukrainians in the Kursk region, calling them “heroes,” and that it’s an “honour” to ally with a country like Russia.

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Roundup: A “fun with numbers” platform

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Day thirty-one, and the Conservatives swallowed up the news cycle with the release of their “costed” platform at long last, and well, it soon became clear as to why that was the case. (Some campaign photos here). Mark Carney was in Quebec City to reiterate his plans focused on Quebec in particular, especially as they relate to Quebec identity and the economy, before lambasting the Conservatives’ “costed” platform (more on that below). Carney then had stops in Shefford, Saint-Bruno, and Laval.

Pierre Poilievre was in Woodbridge, Ontario, where he finally unveiled his “costed” platform, and the term is used very loosely because hoo boy. It was mostly full of magical mystery math that books phantom revenues—including from resource projects that don’t exist and likely won’t exist in a four-year timeframe—and from cuts to things like consulting services or government IT, which rarely actually delivers real savings. Oh, and it doesn’t actually eliminate the deficit like they’ve been touting, even with the overly optimistic phantom revenues. (For contrast, the Liberals’ platform doesn’t include revenue assumptions). There was a promise to hold referendums for tax increases, which a) neuters the role of Parliament, b) has blown up in the faces of those who instituted this in places like California, and c) is empty posturing because you can’t bind a future government, so the law is easily repealed. And then, to distract from the faulty promises and bad math, Poilievre veered into a performance about a document from Policy Horizons Canada which he claimed were doomsday forecasts when they are actually a number of largely implausible scenarios to force policy-makers to consider some various worst-case scenarios, and are not in fact forecasts at all, not that he would tell you differently. (Write-ups from CBC, The Star, The Logic, the National Post, CTV, and the Globe and Mail). At some point in the day, Poilievre attended a “virtual forum” with the AFN, but remained cagey about his criticisms of UNDRIP. Poilievre later held a rally in Vaughan. He’ll be in Stoney Creek, Ontario, this morning, before heading to Trenton, Nova Scotia.

The Conservative plan is out and, ooof, is this costing a disaster.There's a whole bunch of phantom revenues booked here, and the GST housing pledge is costed at under $2B. Given their proposed eligibility criteria, it should be more in the 4-6B range.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T14:40:58.000Z

The Conservative plan books extra revenue from economic growth caused by their policies. The idea that economic growth will lead to improved finances isn't unreasonable. Budget 2024 shows that 100 bps of economic growth is worth $5B a year to the federal budget.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T17:51:23.000Z

The Conservatives are booking anywhere from $3B-10B of additional revenue each year from economic-related growth. The average year sees an additional $6B+ in revenue, associated with 128bps in economic growth.This is a near doubling of TD Econ's growth forecasts.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T17:51:29.000Z

The CPC platform books *extra* revenue of about $13B from their new capital gains deferral idea.But allowing people to defer capital gains will *cost* revenue.I'm guessing they assume *huge* new economic activity will be generated? You'd maybe need about $100B in new GDP to do that. Interesting.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T15:38:08.921Z

Or the whole debacle when the established Shared Services and cut their budget by the projected savings before they had done any of the enterprise transformation work.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T15:33:29.326Z

A couple of other thoughts:-Repealing Bill C-75 won't do much for bail other than roll back tougher bail conditions for domestic violence-Repealing Bill C-83 will do nothing about Paul Bernardo because the bill was about solitary confinement-Repealing Bill C-5 won't stop auto theft.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T19:13:59.627Z

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1914778670381838356

In all seriousness, I haven't seen "fun with numbers" costing like this in a Conservative platform since the 2014 Ontario PC campaign.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T14:52:57.000Z

Jagmeet Singh was in Vancouver, where he mostly shit-talked Brookfield and Carney before begging people to vote NDP in order to prevent Carney from getting a “supermajority” (which is not a Thing in Canadian politics). Singh then headed to his home riding of Burnaby, and then to Edmonton. Singh remains in Edmonton this morning before heading to Winnipeg.

In other campaign news, Elections Canada says that a record 7.3 million people voted in the advance polls over the Easter long weekend. Former PBO Kevin Page rated the Liberal platform more favourably than the Conservatives’ (for fairly obvious reasons). Here are two more longread profiles of Carney, this time from the Globe and Mail and The Logic, and each covers different aspects of crises he’s faced in the past.

https://bsky.app/profile/blakeshaffer.bsky.social/post/3lnh54yn6gk2i

Ukraine Dispatch

Three people were injured in the Russian drone attack on Odesa overnight Monday. One woman was killed and some 26 others were injured in a guided bomb attack on Zaporizhzhia yesterday. President Zelenskyy indicated that Chinese nationals are working in Russian drone factories, and that Russia may have stolen Chinese drone technology.

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Roundup: A faux keynote to sanewash Trump

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Day eleven, and the countdown was on for the major tariff announcement from Trump, which he dubbed “Liberation Day” in the most Orwellian sense. Mark Carney was in Ottawa, meeting with his Canada-US advisory council before the announcement, and then the Canada-US Cabinet committee after the announcement, but with more tariffs coming into play later today, the announcement on retaliatory measures is still forthcoming. Carney did say that this latest global tariff imposition will “fundamentally change the global trading system.” And while he didn’t campaign, Carney did, however, have François-Philippe Champagne make a campaign announcement on his behalf in Granby, Quebec, about the agrifood sector, which not only vows to protect Supply Management, but makes pledges around more funding for various agricultural programmes including trying to build more domestic processing capacity. Carney will remain in Ottawa for the morning, and head to Montreal for a Radio-Canada event.

I listen to arguments against retaliatory tariffs, as they do hurt us more than the other side.But, the point is to hurt the other side and get the US tariff reversed. Our ability to withstand pain is greater, but not infinite.So, I'm in favour of smartly targeted retaliatory tariffs.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-04-02T15:45:21.125Z

But some argue against *any* retaliation. Not pro-Trumpers themselves, but people who say "they are big and we are small and we can't possibly do anything we should just submit."This argument I resolutely reject. If not quislings, they are at least cowards. Fight for your country or GTFO.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-04-02T15:48:45.703Z

Pierre Poilievre was in Toronto to give a “keynote speech” to an invited audience meant to resemble a Chamber of Commerce speech on the response to Trump, and it was…middling, because he seems to think that Trump is actually interested in renegotiating the New NAFTA, or that the tariffs are for legitimate reasons rather than the ludicrous belief that they can be used as income to replace taxes that billionaires pay. And he made some particularly odd promises, like using the tax windfall from increased trade to fund the military, or that the Americans actually care about stopping their guns from crossing our border. And a lot of it was falling back on his same economically illiterate beliefs that the Liberals killed the resource extraction sector (which is only operating at record production levels) and that more oil and gas will solve all of our problems (it most assuredly won’t). Poilievre will remain in Kinsgston this morning, and then head to Oshawa for a rally in the evening, and will attend the Radio-Canada event virtually.

Jagmeet Singh was in Winnipeg and made his own pledges to protect workers from the tariffs, which were mostly just reannouncements. Aside from the pledge to meaningfully reform EI (which is far easier said than done—the current government has been working on this for years), he pledged investments in a few sectors, reannounced things like his GST cuts (which disproportionately benefit the wealthy), and he pledged more protectionist measures, which feels like it’s missing the mark for the moment we’re in as a country. Singh will be in Ottawa for the morning, and then head to Montreal later in the day for the Radio-Canada event.

In other campaign news, Conservative spending on Facebook and Instagram ads has fallen sharply while the Liberals have increased theirs.

As for the tariffs, it looks like Canada and Mexico were exempted from this particular round, and that the New NAFTA-compliant exemption remains in place, but the steel and aluminium tariffs are still there, and the auto tariffs come on today in some fashion but they are making those up as they go along, so those remain significant issues overall. But as for how they arrived at their apparently random list of tariffs today, well, it’s even dumber than you could have imagined.

Guess where they got their weird trade deficit math from?

— dan sinker (@dansinker.com) 2025-04-03T00:32:21+00:00

https://bsky.app/profile/jrobson.bsky.social/post/3llustvcjuc2q

Apropos for World Tariff Day.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-03T00:34:45.942Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack hit an energy substation in Sumy region, as Russia claims that Ukrainian forces’ drone and shelling attacks in Kursk region cut off power to 1500 households, thus claiming each side violated the “energy ceasefire.”

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Roundup: Promising to capitulate to the oil companies

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Day ten, and things felt a bit more on track today now that the Paul Chiang situation didn’t loom over everything. Mark Carney was in Winnipeg, and re-announced his party’s affordability measures, such as the cancellation of the consumer carbon levy (though I’m not sure how losing the rebates after this quarter will help most households with affordability), his tax cut plan (which disproportionately helps the wealthy), and their various home building pledges along with the previously announced expansion of dental care this summer. That said, he also said expanding pharmacare likely wasn’t going to be a priority (but remember that pharmacare done in the dumbest way possible because the NDP insisted, so maybe it’ll give it time to negotiate a better system? But only if the premiers actually want to play ball, mind you, and they were reluctant beforehand. Carney is back in Ottawa today for “meetings” in advance of the tariff announcement this afternoon.

Pierre Poilievre was in Petty Harbour, Newfoundland and Labrador, and announced that he was going to cave to five demands from the oil industry, including repealing the Impact Assessment Act, scrap the emissions cap, the industrial carbon price, guarantee “six-month approvals” for projects (and good luck with that), and increase Indigenous loan guarantees for resource projects. Of course, the justifications he keeps pointing to are things that predated Trudeau and the IAA, and there are a tonne of approved projects on the books that aren’t moving ahead for market-based reasons. He’s selling a fiction about the need for more oil and gas projects which the market has not moved on, and is convinced this is the way to fight Trump. It’s baffling. Poilievre also insisted that the Liberals were going to bring the consumer carbon levy back once the election is over, just like Andrew Scheer and Erin O’Toole also insisted that the Liberals were going to tax the capital gains on your home. He later made an announcement in PEI about removing the automatic escalator on beer, wine and spirits, which…is a fraction of a cent every year. Honest to Dionysus… Poilievre will be in Toronto this morning, and heads to Kingston for the evening.

Jagmeet Singh was in Edmonton, and promised changes to the Canada Health Act to ensure that American corporations can’t buy Canadian healthcare facilities, and to put stronger controls on provinces who allow cash-for-access services. He later headed to Winnipeg and met with Wab Kinew. Singh remains in Winnipeg today.

In other campaign news, the Greens have qualified to be in the leaders’ debates, but Maxime Bernier and his vanity party have not (as it should be). Here is a comparison of the various carbon pricing (or not) policies as we now appear to be in a race to the bottom based on false premises. Here is an analysis of the various housing promises. And stories of frustration continue to leak out from the Conservative ranks.

Look! Writs—plural!—being signed, and not on the day the election is called!

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-01T14:11:42.752Z

Apropos of everything.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-02T00:39:33.806Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians claim to have captured a new village in eastern Donetsk region. President Zelenskyy is meeting with a small number of countries about contributing troops as part of the security guarantee in the event the conflict does end.

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Roundup: Return of the tariff threat

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It was day four of the election, and this was the day Trump made his comeback. Before that happened, Mark Carney was in Windsor, and with the Ambassador Bridge as his backdrop, promised a package of measures to help build up more of a domestic supply chain for the auto sector in the face of tariffs, as well as a $2 billion strategic response fund for the fallout of tariffs on the economy.

It was in the evening that Trump made his announcement that 25 percent tariffs would apply to vehicles and major parts not made in the US, which is pretty fuzzy when it comes to the integrated nature of the industry. This was just before Carney’s rally in Kitchener, but he found an appropriate backdrop, and with Unifor president Lana Payne (whom he had already been meeting with when Trump made the announcement) came out to call this a direct attack on the country, and vowed to have a response, but also stated that he would be returning to Ottawa tonight in order to meet with Cabinet and his Canada-US committee in order to determine next steps in the response.

/ April 3, 2025, will end a 60-year era of Canada-US free trade in autos, an era that started here:

— Alex Panetta (@alexpanetta.bsky.social) 2025-03-27T01:10:44.463Z

Pierre Poilievre was in Montmagny, Quebec, and laid out some measures to allow working seniors to keep more income tax free, keep savings in RRSPs longer, and now says he will keep retirement age at 65 if he forms government—a pander to wealthy Boomers. He also released his Quebec-specific platform that promised “responsible federalism,” and pledges to keep Radio-Canada intact (but outside of Quebec, they rely entirely on CBC infrastructure). He then headed to Quebec City for a rally, but when the Trump tariffs were announced, he made a statement that essentially blamed the Liberals for “ten years of economic weakness” and for “pushing” investment out of the country, and demanded that any counter-tariffs go to tax cuts (which is copying Trump). Today he’s off to Surrey, BC.

Jagmeet Singh remained in Hamilton, where he proposed his own tax cuts—increasing the basic personal amount, selective GST cut (which benefits high-income earners), restoring the capital gains increase, doubling the disability benefit (which will do little), and increasing GIS. It was entirely unspectacular, but that’s what we’ve come to expect from Singh. Post-tariff announcement, echoed Carney’s statement about it being a direct attack, then retreated to his previous canned line about needing to “fight like hell,” and complained that EI won’t do enough for any affected workers. He changed his plans to head to Windsor for the day after being called out by reporters.

Let me note that the NDP-proposed GST cut sends more dollars to "millionaires and billionaires" than middle-class Canadians. Let me further note that the BPA increase doesn't benefit the 31% of low-income taxfilers who have non-taxable returns.I get it–tax policy is hard. So maybe preen less?

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-03-26T15:59:05.115Z

A couple of other election notes:

So far, in Canada, the magic money tree foreign aid budget will somehow fund a) a $14bn tax cut, and b) a $5-10bn Arctic military base. The core foreign aid budget is $7bn. It is not the fiscal equivalent of Mary Poppins' bag

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes.bsky.social) 2025-03-26T13:15:11.680Z

Also, 30% of Canada's aid spending goes to Ukraine, and another 23% to in-country refugee costs. So unless you're ending all humanitarian support to Ukraine, and ending all refugee applications, you're not axing the foreign aid budget

— Lauren Dobson-Hughes (@ldobsonhughes.bsky.social) 2025-03-26T13:16:21.962Z

The most surprising part of this election so far for me has been the way that the Conservatives are going hard against Brookfield engaging in capitalism. Did the sun become black as sackcloth of hair, the moon as blood? What is happening? #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-03-27T02:11:49.097Z

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1904926061990735895

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched a mass drone attack on Kharkiv, injuring at least nine, with further attacks on Dnipro. Russia is claiming that Ukrainian drones attacked an electrical facility, while Ukraine says this is disinformation aimed at justifying continuing hostilities. Russia has attacked eight Ukrainian energy facilities since they said they were halting. Here’s an analysis of the Black Sea ceasefire, and how it is really a betrayal of Ukraine and of the US working in Russia’s interests.

Good reads:

  • Elections Canada is hiring 200,000 temporary positions for the election.
  • An Access to Information request shows how Justin Trudeau was preparing for his first call with Trump after he won the election.
  • The summary of the Bank of Canada’s deliberations show that they were prepared to pause any rate cuts, had it not been for the tariff threats.
  • The Atlantic published more screenshots from the group chat that their editor was inadvertently added to, in order to prove their veracity and classified nature.
  • The Globe and Mail’s sources™ say that Chandra Arya’s nomination was revoked because of ties to the Modi government, and some “troubling inconsistencies.”
  • Justin Trudeau is renting a home in the same neighbourhood as Rideau Hall, while his children finish out the school year, but plans to return to Montreal.
  • In Avalon, the Conservatives overrode an ongoing nomination race to appoint a candidate who had to resign from a city job over harassment allegations.
  • Two former Conservative MPs are joining a group of traitors citizens heading to the US to try and talk about statehood for Alberta post-independence referendum.
  • Dominic Cardy’s vanity “Canadian Future Party” is sliding into further obscurity.
  • Scott Moe is aiming to remove his province’s industrial carbon price, which is jumping the gun of the election outcome (and starting the race to the bottom).
  • BC has introduced new framework legislation for Indigenous consultation on mining claims…which First Nations leaders say is insufficient.
  • A US physician who moved to Canada and now practices here describes the differences in our systems that are less obvious than just for-pay.

Odds and ends:

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Roundup: Duelling tax cut offers

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Day two of the campaign, and the first full day of campaigning. Mark Carney began in Gander, Newfoundland and Labrador, where he played up the Canadiana and the fact that Gander hosted passengers from aircraft stranded on 9/11 (which became the basis for the musical “Come from Away.” This was part of his appeal to Canadian values in the face of Trump and the trade war, before he jetted off to Halifax. (Day one recap here, and more about the fishers protesting his speech.). Carney also released a second, more earnest ad with Mike Myers, who officially endorsed him in it. Carney also added that he hasn’t spoken to Trump yet, but he suspects Trump is waiting until after the election to call.

Pierre Poilievre was still in the Greater Toronto Area, where he had pledged his own, larger income tax cut, and gave a faux assurance that it would be paid for with “cuts to bureaucracy, consultants, and foreign aid.” (Yeah, that’s not going to get you the money for this kind of a tax cut, it will absolutely disproportionately benefit the wealthy, and you can bet that social programmes will be on the chopping block). He also regaled the crowd with a stupid meme tale about telling a child that income tax is a “punishment for doing well,” rather than the entry fee for civilization. Because Poilievre is fundamentally an anti-government conservative (in spite of having spent his entire life in public office). (Day one recap here).

The NDP started off in Montreal, where he promised to set aside even more public land for rent-controlled homes, but didn’t exactly spell out how this would be different than what the federal government is already doing about leasing public lands (nor did he address the fact that a lot of that “government-owned land” are actually contaminated sites). He also took some jabs at a punching bag in an outdoor gym—because he’s spent the last few weeks trying to burnish a tough-guy image—before the bus went down the 401 to Toronto. (Day one recap here). He’ll spend much of the day there today, before heading to Hamilton later afternoon.

Given the two promises around tax cuts, here are some analyses of what it might mean, once we get more details. Economists, however, are pretty sceptical thus far that the maths are going to work out for these cuts.

The lowest federal income-tax bracket is currently 15%.The Liberals have promised to cut it to 14%.The Conservatives have promised to cut it to 12.75%.Here's a chart depicting how much less tax that would mean for you, depending on your income.(Earn more than $177,882? Read the fine print!)

— Robson Fletcher (@robsonfletcher.com) 2025-03-24T19:35:49.136Z

I agree with Emmett. One party is promsing a 1 point cut to the lowest income tax rate; the other 2.25 points. Neither has proposed a credible way to pay for it.We need to see credible plans for big economic challenges and big defence/security threats.Hope that will be coming soon.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-03-24T19:16:57.508Z

The Leadership Debates Commission announced the dates for the two official “consortium” debates as April 16th and 17thin Montreal, French first, then English, each with a single moderator after the complete gong show of the previous two election cycles. There will not be a TVA “face-à-face” debate this time, as they planned to charge the leaders $75,000 each to “offset costs,” and the Liberals balked, so it won’t go ahead. The other campaigns are trying to say Carney was too afraid of a second French debate, but charging the parties to hold it was a very, very bad precedent, and it’s probably for the best that it wasn’t’ allowed to take hold.

Leaders' debates are planned for April 16th and 17th, with one moderator apiece, and it's not going to be Shachi Kurl (who handed the Bloc the win they were looking for). #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-03-24T15:08:02.031Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-03-24T13:08:03.483Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles hit a densely-populated part of Sumy, wounding 88 people, while there were further air attacks on Kyiv, wounding one and damaging houses. A Russian cyberattack also hit Ukraine’s state railway service, adding to the chaos of the situation.

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