Roundup: A hung parliament in PEI

The PEI election did not result in a Green Party majority, because shockingly, the polls were wrong. It did result in a hung parliament, which has never happened before in that province, and yet every single media outlet and then the prime minister himself declared that the progressive conservatives had won a minority. Err, except we don’t know the composition of the next government yet because the lieutenant governor hasn’t invited anyone to form government, and the seat distribution – 12 PC, 8 Green, 6 Liberal – is one where it’s not actually clear that the PCs will form government, as a Green-Liberal coalition remains more than possible. Which isn’t to say that it will happen, but there is a way in which government formation works in a Westminster system, and simply winning the most seats, even if you don’t win a majority, doesn’t mean that you get a chance to form government. It doesn’t work that way! And it would be really great if the media would stop creating this false sense that it works that way, because it doesn’t. And even if the PCs do form government, they will need one of the other parties to prop them up, and that will have a significant effect on the shape of that government. Pre-empting the lieutenant governor’s call simply invites confusion, which we should probably be avoiding.

Happily, the province’s electoral reform referendum also went down in defeat (and this is another place where the urban-rural split will likely be evident). Hopefully this means that the advocates will shut up about it because they keep losing. I know they won’t – they’re convinced that people just don’t understand or are too stupid to realise that PR is so good for them (it’s not), but you would hope that the constant defeats would be some kind of dissuasion.

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Roundup: A trio of justice issues

There were three major law-related stories in the news yesterday, starting with the announcement that Supreme Court of Canada Justice Clement Gascon has opted to retire early, citing “personal and family reasons.” This was quickly followed by Justin Trudeau announcing that a replacement process would be launched, and would again be headed by Kim Campbell, while the Conservatives followed a few hours later with a demand that this process not go ahead until the leak from the previous process was investigated (though the Privacy Commissioner is already on that case). The thing to remember of course is that there is something of a deadline here, being the election, and it’s more than possible that the Conservatives want this delayed so that they have the possibility of naming the next judge if they should happen to form government in October. For what it’s worth.

The second story was that of the carbon tax reference at the Ontario Court of Appeal, which was live-streamed for the first time in its history. The province’s argument apparently is that if the federal government is allowed to impose a carbon tax, that they’ll start intruding into other areas of provincial jurisdiction, which is…dubious. And it sounds like the judges weren’t having much of that line of reasoning either.

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The third law story of the day was the revelation that the directive around civil litigation involving Indigenous people that Jody Wilson-Raybould instituted as one of her last acts as justice minister has been fiercely contested within the department because it many cases, it amounts to litigating badly and not actually getting the courts to resolve the legal questions that are at issue, which they argue doesn’t actually help reconciliation because you’re not dealing with underlying issues that require resolution. The piece also noted the frequent and direct political interference that Wilson-Raybould exerted on civil litigation (which she can do as Attorney General, unlike the arm’s length nature of criminal prosecutions), sometimes undermining the arguments that Crown attorneys were trying to advance in the middle of cases. It’s fascinating reading and yet more insight into what was going on with Wilson-Raybould in the lead up to her being shuffled.

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Roundup: Unenforceable garbage legislation

As expected, the Speaker ruled yesterday that he didn’t have the jurisdiction to police whether or not the different party caucuses adhered to the Reform Act additions to the Parliament of Canada Act, and thus Jane Philpott’s complaints will fall on deaf ears (just as Erin Weir was hoping to belatedly make the same complaints about his own expulsion from NDP caucus). And then we immediately got another wave of self-righteousness over the Twitter Machine about how terrible it was that MPs couldn’t even follow their own laws just after they passed them.

To recap the whole Reform Act saga: It was a dubious prospect from the very start because it was utterly misguided in what it was trying to accomplish, which was to nominally weaken the power of the party leader and strengthen the power of MPs. Everyone was treating this as a rebuke of the “dictatorial” Stephen Harper, so it became this big optics battle, never mind that it would have done nothing about the Conservative caucus and their mood, since the vast majority of them were still convinced that Harper walked on water. And while Michael Chong may have been noble in sentiment, he chose the wrong vehicle to make his proposed changes. The right vehicle would have been reforming leadership selection processes, which are the bane of our system, but he didn’t dare do that, so we got the Reform Act instead. And because no party actually wanted to do more than mouth the platitudes of the bill, they ensured it was so completely neutered in committee and made optional, with no enforcement, that we got the eventual garbage bill passed into law because it felt good to do so.

Here’s the thing: MPs didn’t need this bill to give them any more power. They already had all the power they needed, but they either choose not to exercise it, or don’t know about their own powers because, well, most of them don’t even know their own job descriptions. (This is why I wrote my book). And Chong’s garbage bill actually limited their powers under the guise of strengthening them. But would anyone articulate that at the time (other than me, howling into the void from the pages of the National Post)? Of course not. All of the hollow platitudes were siren song. And so once again, MPs passed a meaningless (but not actually harmless — the bill is actually democratic poison) bill into law with no intention of following through on it, because it felt good. And this kind of thing keeps happening because not enough MPs are serious enough about their actual constitutional roles. We need better informed MPs, or this kind of thing will keep happening.

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QP: Concern trolling over perjury

The Thursday before the Easter break, and neither Justin Trudeau nor Andrew Scheer were present. That left Alain Rayes to lead off in French, and he demanded that the prime minister commence his legal action right away. Bardish Chagger said that Canadians heard the truth because the PM had the courage go waive any confidences, but the legal letter was sent because the leader of the opposition keeps speaking falsehoods. Rayes dared Chagger again, and Chagger reiterated that they took the first step with the letter. Mark Strahl took over in English, with added bluster, in demanded that the prime minister see his leader in court. Chagger reiterated her points in English, and so Strahl tried again, and again, not that the answer changed. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and he wanted assurances that the government would not interfere with the Director of Public Prosecutions, to which Chagger was concerned that Singh seemed to indicate a lack of confidence in the Ethics Commissioner of other institutions. Singh demanded a public inquiry in French, to which Marc Garneau stood up to say that Canada was cooperating with the OECD. Singh then asked about big banks’ sales practices and worried the government was only worried about big corporations, and Ralph Goodale reminded him that they introduced tougher penalties against banks giving misleading information. Singh tried again in English, and Goodale repeated his response with a tone of exasperation. 

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QP: A dare and a denunciation

All of the leaders were present today, for what promised to be a lot of back and forth over the libel suit. Andrew Scheer led off, and he dared Justin Trudeau to go ahead with the suit. Trudeau picked up a script to say that this was the party of Stephen Harper, that they backed down when threatened over statements about Navdeep Bains, and this was more misleading by the Conservatives. Scheer repeated the question in French, and got the same response from Trudeau but in French. Scheer demanded court proceedings commence, and Trudeau first said that Scheer wouldn’t denounce white supremacists, and raised Senator Housakos’ comments in committee saying he didn’t think it was a problem. Scheer dismissed this as a smear tactic, and stated that he always denounced white supremacists (possibly saying those actual words for the first time). From there, Trudeau went on a tear about Scheer misleading Canadians and pivoted to the environment, to which Scheer demanded Trudeau go on the record in court, and Trudeau kept on about the Conservatives’ lack of a plan. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and said that the OECD was watching Canada on the SNC-Lavalin file and demanded a public inquiry. Trudeau reminded him that the justice committee was master of its own destiny and he ensured everything was public. Singh tried again in French, got the same answer, and then Singh railed in French about Loblaws getting climate funds. Trudeau reminded him that the private sector has a role to play in fighting climate change and the government would partner with them, and when Singh tried again in English, and Trudeau said the problem with the NDP was that they were all talk, while they were taking action.

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Roundup: Denials and special committees

The pace of news out of the Double-Hyphen Affair fallout slowed somewhat yesterday – finally – but there were incremental developments starting with yet another interview by Jody Wilson-Raybould, in which she was somewhat more categorial about her insistence that she would never try to have the prime minister direct her successor (and yet she kept saying she wouldn’t respond to anonymous leaks, even though this whole Affair was touched off by anonymous leaks to the Globe and Mail, and she responded to those). There nevertheless remains some incredulity at the notion that an issue that supposedly cuts at the heart of prosecutorial independence in this country could have been smoothed over with an apology. Also, apparently the Vancouver–Granville riding association is staying in place and not resigning out of protest, so that is also a significant development.

Meanwhile, SNC-Lavalin is going to appeal the decision that denied them judicial review of the Director of Public Prosecutions’ decision not to grant them a DPA. They’re saying that they have new evidence that has come to light during this whole Affair – things like information on when decisions that were taken that don’t line up with information that the company provided to the DPP, about conditions that supposedly weren’t met for eligibility, and what they consider an abuse of process. They’re not likely to get very far with the appeal, but it’s a lifeline for them nevertheless.

On another front, there is now a live debate in the Senate regarding Senator Pratte’s motion to create a special committee to look into the issues surrounding the Affair, particularly separating the Attorney General from the justice minister, as well as the role of remediation agreements. It’s fairly fraught in part because there are a lot of unknowns in what he is proposing, given that it would establish a special committee rather than go through one of the established committees, and its known quantities in terms of membership. Nevertheless, the fact that his proposal has defined aims that are less likely to be read as partisan will mean that it’s more likely to get the support of the Independents, which is what will be important in getting the needed votes.

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QP: Who is the better feminist?

For the first time this week, and after all of the drama that has happened thus far, all of the party leaders were present, just in time for PMQs. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he stated that everything that Wilson-Raybould was true, everything the PM was false, and wondered why telling the truth got one kicked out of the Liberal Party. Justin Trudeau stood up and extemporaneously stated that being in caucus comes with rights and responsibilities, that he listened to the members of his caucus, reflected on it, and decided to take this difficult action in order to move forward. They went again on the very same in French, and then Scheer disputed Trudeau’s statement, and Trudeau pointed out his party’s record when it come to strong women. Scheer said it was “unconscionable” go kick out someone who speaks truth to power, and Trudeau deployed his line that the Conservatives will do anything to not talk about the budget. When Scheer tried again, Trudeau said that when it comes to talking about falsehoods, Scheer shouldn’t throw stones. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and he raised Grassy Narrows, and demanded that Trudeau head there immediately. Trudeau apologised again for his comments last week, and said the minister of Indigenous services was in touch with the chief. Singh raised the message Trudeau was sending to Daughters of the Vote, and Trudeau talked about how they won’t always agree but that’s why this place exists, and they need to defend their principles. When Singh tried again, Trudeau raised reconciliation and how they are acting for Canadians instead of playing politics. Singh tried again in English, and Trudeau concern trolled that Singh hopefully didn’t mean to disparage the other women in Cabinet and caucus. 

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QP: Assurances that the system works

While the PM had initially promised to be in QP today, he cancelled earlier in the morning, leaving Andrew Scheer to square off against another front-bencher — likely Bardish Chagger. Scheer led off in French, mini-lectern on desk, and went through previous statements of the PM on the Double-Hyphen Affair and demanded the truth on the matter. Chagger reminded him that everything was in public and people could make up their own minds. Scheer tried again in English, and got the same response in English. Scheer read that nobody bought the prime minister’s line, and he read statements from the transcript of the Wilson-Raybould/Wernick call, to which Chagger reminded him the committee heard testimony in public. Pierre Paul-Hus took over in French to accuse the justice committee of being obstructionist, and Chagger reiterated that all of the facts were now public and the system was working. Paul-Hus listed the staffers who the committee hadn’t heard from, and Chagger repeated that everything was in public, and that the prime minister already took responsibility. Ruth Ellen Brosseau led off for the NDP, and read a defence of Wilson-Raybould’s decision to record the conversation with Wernick and turned it into a question about not standing up for women. Chagger calmly repeated that all of the facts were now public, and accused the NDP of playing politics. Brosseau then read a demand that the PM visit Grassy Narrows immediately, and Seamus O’Regan responded that they were moving ahead with building the health facility there. Charlie Angus then self-righteously demanded the PM personally call the chief of Grassy Narrows to apologise personally, and O’Regan said that he was going to meet the chief personally to ensure they would move ahead with the health centre. Angus then thundered sanctimoniously about the recorded call, and Chagger remarked that in their own caucus, they allow robust discussion.

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Roundup: The caucus question

The question of the future of Jody Wilson-Raybould and Jane Philpott in the Liberal caucus is a very live question as sentiment seems to be turning against them – though one imagines that Wilson-Raybould’s ouster is probably of bigger concern to most Liberals given the revelation of the tape she made of her conversation with Michael Wernick. Apparently, the various caucus chairs have been meeting, and pushing for an emergency caucus meeting before the regularly scheduled Wednesday meeting to try and resolve the issue before then. Some of them want a declaration from the pair that they support the leader before they will consider letting them stay – and Wilson-Raybould would not give that when scrummed after QP yesterday, saying she believes in the party and what it stands for, but would not give any assurances about the leader. (She also scoffed at the idea of resigning, insisting that she was doing the best job she could). Of course, the fact that she made the secret recording means that she has broken the trust of colleagues, even though she has made the excuse that Wernick was neither a member of caucus, nor her client. (I would add that it doesn’t explain her conduct during that call, which contained a number of irregularities, leading questions and directed conversation in search of quotes). There are questions still about Philpott, and where she will position herself since the release of the tape, and some Liberals have suggested that perhaps she was “used” by Wilson-Raybould. (And one has to wonder if the tape would change her own notions about her support for Wilson-Raybould).

I have to say that I’m struggling on the question of whether or not Wilson-Raybould should remain in caucus, because while I believe there is room for dissent, and even for MPs who don’t support the leader – because it’s a gods damned political party and not a personality cult – I also find that the tape causes me a great deal of concern for the reasons articulated above, as do the opacity of her motivations for behaving in the way she has, particularly around the tactical use of silence on something that you would think she’s be pulling the fire alarm over if it was what she is hinting. Too many things don’t add up, which is both distressing and exhausting for someone trying to understand what is going on. I get that there are Liberals with battle scars who don’t want a replay of the Chrétien-Martin years (or the Dion-Ignatieff wars, or even Turner-Trudeau Senior if you want to go that far back), and there is the worry that Wilson-Raybould’s presence in caucus will be a potential source of internecine warfare that Liberals apparently excel at, or that Trudeau should be putting some metaphorical heads on spikes to reassert his dominance, or any of that, but again, this is a political party, not a personality cult. This is not and should not be Trudeau’s party, but there is a live question about the damage she has done to the party and its chances in the election given the way that this has rolled out, and members of caucus will need to consider that. It’s not an easy task, and they should think carefully, because expelling those two could create bigger narrative problems for them in the longer term. But it’s also not up to me to decide (and I’m not one of those journalists who enforces caucus loyalty), so I await to see what everyone in the caucus room decides.

Meanwhile, the Conservatives decided that their next pressure tactic would be for Pierre Poilievre to “filibuster” the budget debate – err, except it’s not really a filibuster because it can only take place during the time allotted for government orders, and the Standing Orders limit the budget debate to a maximum of four days, those days being at the government’s choosing. So essentially, Poilievre is holding himself hostage, and by him taking up all of the speaking time over those four allotted days, he’s essentially ensuring that nobody else has to prepare a speech of their own, so all of the MPs on House duty can simply spend their time doing paperwork at their desks while he carries on. So…I’m not sure what exactly the Conservatives are hoping to accomplish. It’s another ill-conceived move by a caucus who mistakes tactics for strategy.

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QP: The “proof” of the tape

The first day back after a week away, the release of the tape, and with the federal carbon price backstop now in effect, it was likely to be a complete dog’s breakfast in QP, but none of the leaders were present to take part — Justin Trudeau meeting with the president of Israel, and Andrew Scheer in New Brunswick to shake his fist performatively at said carbon price. Candice Bergen led off, saying that the tapes “proved” that there was orchestrated pressure on Jody Wilson-Raybould, and said that since she couldn’t ask if the prime minister lied so she tried to word around it — and got a warning from the Speaker. Bardish Chagger reminded her that the prime minister took responsibility, the justice committee held five weeks of hearings, and everything was in public, and the Ethics Commissioner was investigating it. Bergen demanded the truth from the prime minister, and Chagger largely repeated the response. Bergen demanded that the prime minister instruct the justice committee to reopen the investigation, to which Chagger said the committees are independent and the system is working. Alain Rayes took over in French, repeated that the tapes “prove” interference, and demanded the truth. Chagger reminded him that they always tell the truth, and that it all happened in public so that people could hear for themselves. On a repeat of the same, Chagger said that the opposition hasn’t been listening to witnesses. Peter Julian led off in French for the NDP and demanded a public inquiry, and Chagger listed off the work of the committee and the Ethics Commissioner. Julian switched to English to repeat his demand for a public inquiry, and Chagger reiterated her response. Georgina Joilibois raised the issue of the Grassy Narrows protester at the Liberal fundraiser last week, to which Carolyn Bennett reminded her that they are working with the community and are moving forward on the promised health facility, and capped it off with a shot at the Conservatives. Brigitte Sansoucy repeated the question in French, demanding the PM visit Grassy Narrows immediately, and Bennett read the French version of her previous response.

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