QP: Keeping some fiscal room

Tuesday, and while Justin Trudeau was present today, both Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh were away for whatever the reason. Gérard Deltell led off in French, worrying about the deficit and the loss of jobs in the energy sector, and the general direction of the economy. Trudeau started that they did the work of things like poverty reduction, but they knew to leave room for situations like COVID-19. Deltell worried that they spent the cupboard bare, to which Trudeau reminded him that the Conservatives cut services to veterans and other vulnerable groups while his government has room to manoeuvre. Pierre Poilievre took over in English and listed a number of false metrics around our economy and the state of the deficit, to which Trudeau repeated his answer. Poilievre listed some cherry-picked facts about Conservative budgets, and Trudeau noted that the Conservatives neglected to invest in Canadians. Poilievre then listed a number of disingenuously framed investments by the current government, and Trudeau listed the ways in which Conservatives cut services for Canadians. Yves-François Blanchet was up for the Bloc, and he worried about poor seniors, to which Trudeau listed the measures that his government has taken to date. Blanchet repeated his demand to increase seniors’ purchasing power, and Trudeau reiterated that they have taken plenty of measures. Peter Julian led for the NDP, and he worried about measures for vulnerable workers in the gig economy, to which Trudeau assured him that they would be announcing new measures. Jenny Kwan forcefully read a demand to delay cruise season, to which Trudeau stated that they were working with provinces and sectors to support them in difficult times.

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Roundup: An abortion bill to position around

The Conservatives’ abortion legislation problem has come home to roost early in the new parliament as MP Cathay Wagantall tabled a bill to ban sex-selective abortions, under the (bullshit) excuse that it reflects Canada’s commitment to gender equality. And because she’s 31 on the order of precedence for private members’ business, this will come up likely late spring or early fall. (Private members’ business is determined by lottery, and arrives on the Order Paper in batches of 30). And all eyes are on Andrew Scheer, who stated during the election that he would vote against any measures to attempt to re-open the abortion debate.

Why does this matter? Because the list of approved candidates for the Conservative leadership closed last night, and social conservatives have played kingmaker in both the last federal leadership contest, as well as the last Ontario one, which was done under the same rules. Already we’re seeing positioning among candidates, such as Erin O’Toole criticizing Peter MacKay for saying he would whip his Cabinet to vote against such a bill, saying that he would never whip anyone, Cabinet or backbench, on “moral issues.” It’s a completely transparent ploy – O’Toole is trying to ensure that he gets second-ballot support from the social conservatives when their preferred no-hope candidates get dropped off of the ranked preferential ballot. That’s how Andrew Scheer won, and it’s how Doug Ford won.

Meanwhile, it looks like it’ll be seven entrants in the race, though some approvals may yet be pending. Of those seven, three qualify as social conservatives, so the “frontrunners” like MacKay, O’Toole and maybe Marilyn Gladu will want the second and third votes from those no-hopers in the hopes of pushing them over the top. So this dynamic is very present in the leadership race, as Wagantall has put it on the table for them to debate around her.

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QP: Trying to make Orwell happen

Monday of the second week back, and for the anniversary of the great Centre Block fire of 1916, the wooden mace was on the table for the day. Justin Trudeau and Andrew Scheer were present, but most of the other leaders were not. Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he immediately raised the spectre of the torqued stories of government licensing media. Trudeau took up a script to say that the report stated that news was not to be licensed, that they believed in free media, but they continued to study the report. Scheer tried again, throwing out references to Nineteen Eighty-Four, China’s basic dictatorship, and Fidel Castro. Trudeau repeated the response, trying to be emphatic about it. Scheer then pivoted to the economy, talking down the figures, and Trudeau reminded him that they have made progress on tackling poverty and investing in growth. Scheer tried again, and Trudeau reminded him that they actually cut taxes. Scheer tried to then score points on the supposed $50 Million to MasterCard — really an investment in a cyber-security research centre — and Trudeau read back Scheer’s quotes about the importance of cyber-security from the election. Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, worrying about the potential approval of Teck Frontier Mine. Trudeau picked up a script to read that they were evaluating the proposal and would come up with a response within a month. Therrien tried again, and Trudeau listed from memory the various measures they are taking to protect the environment. Alexandre Boulerice led off for the NDP, and he worried that the government was not calling out Donald Trump’s Middle East “peace plan” as it disadvantages Palestinians. Trudeau reminded him that the government’s long-standing policy is for a two-state solution negotiated by the parties involved. Brian Masse then railed about the Volkswagen settlement, and Trudeau read that the Public Prosecution Service made all decisions independently.

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QP: Platitudes and the Parole Board

After a number of members’ statements dedicated to both the anniversary of the Quebec City mosque shooting and #BellLetsTalk, and a moment of silence for the mosque shooting, things got down to business with all of the leaders present. Andrew Scheer led off, and he railed about MasterCard getting government funding. Trudeau responded with some bland platitudes about growing the Middle Class™. Scheer tried again, got much the same response, and then Scheer demanded that the Teck Frontier Mine be approved. Trudeau said that railing about activists and celebrities didn’t help the energy sector, but working in partnership with all sectors and Indigenous people was the path forward. Scheer then switched to French to ask about a parole case, to which Trudeau picked up a script to read that they had ordered an investigation into the Parole Board’s decision. Scheer switched to English to lie about Trudeau apparently opposing mandatory minimum sentences for violent murderers, and Trudeau repeated his answer in English. Yves-François Blanchet was up for the Bloc, to get back to his usual complaints about aluminium under the New NAFTA, and Trudeau gave his usual assurances that there are new content guarantees that don’t exist currently. Blanchet threatened to vote against the Ways and Means motion on the treaty, and Trudeau listed the good things about the agreement. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, and he worried about evacuating Canadians from China — something that was addressed in a press conference moments before QP began. Trudeau read a statement about their concern, and that they were working to assist the 160 Canadians who had contacted them. Singh then raised that MasterCard contract instead of giving that money to pharmacare, and Trudeau stood up to correct him as to the actions they have taken to make prescription drugs more affordable.

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Roundup: Giving up HRH

News came down on Saturday from Buckingham Palace that Harry and Meghan had given up their royal titles – they remain the Duke and Duchess of Sussex – and that they would be repaying for the refurbishment of Frogmore Cottage, which would continue to be their residence in the UK. On Sunday, Harry gave a speech that outlined his continued commitment to causes, but said that he had no other choice than to step back from royal duties, and it wasn’t possible to keep up Commonwealth and military commitments while not being senior royals receiving the sovereign grant.

The fact that the pair have given up their royal titles is likely to mean that they are no longer on the list of internationally protected persons, meaning that Canada will likely not have to foot any kind of security bill for them – even though no assessment had even been made on it (as it was still a bit early considering that little had been finalised).

So what does this mean for my proposal that we put them to work giving patronages in Canada? Well, very little, actually – Harry has insisted that they are still devoted to causes, and well, they have the time and the availability to devote themselves to these causes while they’re spending (likely just shy of) six months of the year here. It will just mean that they will be more under their celebrity status than royal status, which is more the pity. Besides, what could be more Canadian than getting something second-hand from Britain and hoping that it doesn’t catch fire on its way across the Atlantic?

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QP: Cheerleading a recession

After this morning’s surprising announcement that Andrew Scheer was resigning as Conservative leader, the PM was in his office but not present for QP (even though he had been in the House to respond to Scheer’s resignation just a couple of hours earlier). After a lengthy ovation, Scheer lamented last month’s job numbers, which I remind you was 100 percent bullshit, particularly his warnings about a “made-in-Canada recession.” Bill Morneau reminded him that while monthly job numbers are important, they would continue to invest in Canadians as that created over a million jobs. In French, Scheer demanded an economic update, and Morneau responded was that one would happen in the coming days. Scheer switched back to English to carry on his lament for the stage of the economy, giving misleading G7 job stats, to which Morneau repeated that their plan to invest was working, and that the economy was on track for the second-highest growth in the G7. Leona Alleslev was up next, and in French, concern trolled about the New NAFTA, and demanded impact assessments for it. Chrystia Freeland reminded her that the existential threat to our economy was now past, and endangering ratification was simply threatening the economy. Alleslev switched to English to worry about “repairing” our relationship with the US, and Freeland stated that the most important thing was ratifying the agreement. Yves-François Blanchet was up next, and he spun a sad tale of steel workers in Ontario being protected but aluminium workers in Quebec were not, to which Freeland reminded him that they got the tariffs repealed, and that the new agreement had 70 percent North American aluminium content requirements. Blanchet sang the praises of economic nationalism, and Freeland warned of the dangers of partisanship. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and demanded the government stop the judicial review of the Human Rights Tribunal compensation order, to which Marc Miller started that they were engaging partners to see that there was the fairest and most comprehensive compensation offered. Singh tried again in English, and Miller listed new measures they are in compliance with, and said that they were sitting down to get compensation right.

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Roundup: Secrecy and sticking with damaged goods

It’s (English) debate day, which means that it will be a low-key day as leaders are busy with debate prep. Yesterday, Andrew Scheer took the day off, while Justin Trudeau went to Plainfield, Ontario, to plant another tree, which I suspect will be the new go-to photo-op of the campaign. There, he accused Scheer of keeping his full platform and costs secret ahead of the debates, and compared him to Doug Ford given Ford’s lack of a platform during the Ontario election. During a later media availability, he said that he was sticking with the Cape Breton candidate despite his past racist and misogynist posts because he had apologised (which is the standard that most everyone has since adopted in this election).

As for Jagmeet Singh, he was campaigning at a farmer’s market in Ottawa with Ed Broadbent.

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Roundup: What high cost exactly?

As people talk more and more about the upcoming election, the notion about the “high cost of living” is a theme that keeps recurring, and it’s fairly interesting because it’s something that, well, doesn’t really bear out in the data. Inflation has held relatively steady for decades now, and in the past few years has remained within the target range (between one and three percent, with two percent being what they generally aim for), and was on the low side of it for a while, briefly flirted with the high side of the target range and has been back to two percent.

As part of populist rhetoric, all parties have been trying to make this a selling feature – the Conservatives with promises to cut carbon pricing (even though that has not had a significant effect on inflation or even gas prices) and the restoration of boutique tax credits (that don’t benefit low-income people), the Liberals through the Canada Child Benefit, and the NDP through promised massive spending programmes (that have zero details on implementation). So it’s worthwhile asking just what exactly they’re referring to when they rail about the high cost of living, because it can refer to specific things that have specific solutions that they may or may not be advocating.

Housing prices are one thing that are lumped into cost of living, but isn’t really, and again, that’s very dependent on which market you happen to be in. Toronto is coming back to normal after being on a housing bubble, but Vancouver is still high in part because of housing supply. Alberta and Saskatchewan are depressed because of the oil market, but other parts of the country? Not really an affordability issue, and some plans to deal with housing affordability will just drive up prices by the amount of the incentives and not deal with the structural problems (which is what the Liberals tried to circumvent with their shared equity plan in the last budget). Essentially, when the parties start talking about dealing with the “high cost of living,” we should be pushing back and asking what, specifically, they’re referring to. There is enough populist bilge out there that means nothing and promises snake oil, so unless you can get specifics, don’t trust that they will deliver anything of substance.

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Roundup: Attacking his own plan

Andrew Scheer’s sudden denunciation of the planned clean fuel regulations got some reaction yesterday, partly from the government, and partly from economists who deal with this kind of thing for a living. Scheer’s labelling it a “secret fuel tax” is more than a little odd, because it’s exactly the kind of thing he’s proposing by removing the transparent federal carbon price and replacing it with more costly regulations, which would get passed onto consumers in a hidden way without any of the rebates that the current federal backstop programme provides – in other words, doing exactly what he’s accusing the Liberals of doing. The government noted that Scheer’s 4¢/litre figure are just a guess because the regulations haven’t been finalised yet (though some economists say it’s about right based on current projections), but again, it needs to be driven home that this is exactly the kind of thing that Scheer himself is proposing, but without the added “technology is magic” sheen attached.

To that end, here’s economist Andrew Leach’s mock open letter to Scheer.

Meanwhile, Heather Scoffield points out that this latest attack by Scheer risks boxing him in, and attacks his credibility on the climate file.

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1148609609424429057

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QP: Juvenile attributions

While Justin Trudeau had promised to be present for one of the final QPs of this parliament, he was absent as things got underway, while Andrew Scheer was also absent (though he too was also in town). Lisa Raitt led off, demanding a start date for the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion, to which Patty Hajdu said that there was more to come shortly. Raitt gave a homily about all of the people she spoke to who didn’t believe the pipeline would happen before she repeated her demand, and Hajdu went on a tear about all the things the Conservatives didn’t get done before repeating that they would have more to say soon. Raitt railed that nobody believes the government, but it didn’t change Hajdu’s answer. Gérard Deltell took over in French to repeat the demand, letting Hajdu go on a paean about how her government respects workers. Deltell tried one last time, disingenuously ignoring the Federal Court of Appeal decision, and Hajdu repeated her previous response one last time. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and in French, he lamented that the TMX would not do anything for the environment or Indigenous rights, to which Catherine McKenna got up to lament that the Conservatives didn’t vote for the motion on the climate emergency. Singh switched English and flailed about fossil fuel subsidies before demanding action on climate instead of symbolism, to which McKenna listed actions the government has taken. Singh then lamented the national housing strategy as not being ambition enough, to which Goodale said that the without their government, housing funding would have been cut otherwise. Singh flailed a bit more to repeat the question in French, and Goodale reiterated his response.

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