Roundup: Some good news on emissions reductions

As the end of COP28 approaches, and all of the ensuing insanity that surrounds it, there was a bit of good news closer to home, where Environment Canada says that the latest modelling shows that we are on track to meet our interim targets on the way to the 2030 targets. That’s not the enhanced targets, mind you, and there is still a log of work to do, but this is at least a bit of good news that yes, the emissions curve is bending downwards now, and it’s further proof that the Conservatives’ usual defeatist complaint that the government hasn’t reduced emissions (outside of the height of the pandemic) isn’t true, and that yes, the carbon price is working, so their demands to lift it would be even more self-defeating.

Ukraine Dispatch:

It appears that there has been another attempted Russian airstrike over Kyiv, but that air defences are working, but four people were injured by falling debris. There was also a drone attack in the southern Kherson region on Saturday that killed one civilian. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy attended the presidential inauguration in Argentina (where he was sat next to Viktor Orbán and appears to have given him a talking-to).

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1733956509669716365

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Roundup: The “watered down” oil and gas emissions cap

The federal government unveiled their oil and gas emissions cap while at COP28, and the predictable reactions happened—the Greens, Bloc and NDP decried it as being too weak and watered down (never mind that there are recent court decisions that the government has to consider when it comes to just how far they can go); Danielle Smith and Scott Moe were performatively angry, even though it pretty much aligns with Alberta’s existing targets; and the oil and gas lobby decried how much money this was going to lose them. Economists point out that this undermines the carbon pricing system even further.

The cap is only on the pollution, not the production, because that would be provincial jurisdiction, so theoretically these companies could continue to increase production if they better control and capture emissions. (Also, refinery emissions are not in these because that’s part of the clean fuel standard). There is also a cap-and-trade system attached to this emissions cap, so that if a facility goes over their targets, they can buy offsets from a company below their cap, as well as pay into a decarbonisation fund.

Now we wait for the inevitable court challenges, and those dragging their feet to comply because they hope that the polls stay true and that Poilievre will form government in two years and they can ignore all of this then, as though climate change isn’t still the biggest threat to our lives, well, ever.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians struck the Danube River port infrastructure once again, killing a driver and damaging grain infrastructure. Ukrainians are starting to use rail to bypass the blockade by Polish trucks at their border. And the Ukrainian government has come to an agreement with two American firms to jointly manufacture 155 mm shells in Ukraine, but it could be two or three years before that production can come on line.

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QP: An ejection stunt among the scripts

The prime minister was present, but would only be for the leaders’ round today instead of his usual Wednesday practice of taking all questions, as he needed to head to the École Polytechnique vigil in Montreal. His deputy was absent, as was Jagmeet Singh, who has not been seen in person for over a week now. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he noted the day for remembrance of École Polytechnique before pivoting this to questions of children who are asking Santa Claus for food, and asked if the prime minister “ordered his senators” to vote against Bill C-234. Trudeau read a statement about Polytechnique and gender-based violence. Poilievre then raised a question in the Senate asked of the president of CHMC, who said there wasn’t a plan to add 40,000 housing units and then plugged his “documentary.” Trudeau dismissed the chasing of clicks and praised their housing strategy. Poilievre returned to English to repeat the same question, but called the CMHC the “prime minister’s housing agency,” which is risible. Trudeau read a script that Poilievre chases clicks, and uses homeless people as props. Poilievre blamed Trudeau for causing homelessness, and accused him of attempting to “manipulate and intimidate” senators to vote against Bill C-234. Trudeau quipped that the only farming Poilievre cares about is rage-farming. Poilievre pilloried him for reading talking points from junior staffers, and repeated his same accusation. Trudeau, with a script in his hand, says that Poilievre is so ideologically opposed to climate action that he wants to take parliament hostage, and accused Poilievre of only being fuelled by the sound of his own voice.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he railed about Catherine Tait’s leadership at CBC/Radio-Canada and the cuts being made. Trudeau read some scripts about cancelling Harper cuts and their work on the Online News Act. Blanchet hoped that they would not conclude that Liberal cuts were better than Conservative ones and took another swipe at Tait. Trudeau reminded him that they will look at the protection of French as part of CBC/Radio-Canada’s mandate.

Lindsay Mathyssen rose for the NDP, and read statistics on gender-based violence before accusing the government of cutting funds to women’s shelters (which is not actually the case). Trudeau read a script about supporting shelters and working with provinces and territories on strategies to eliminate gender based violence. Lori Idlout accused the government of deliberately keeping Indigenous women in violent situations by not adequately funding housing. Trudeau read a script about co-developing housing strategies and solutions, while they have already helped build and renovate 30,000 housing units for Indigenous communities. 

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Roundup: Who “axing the tax” really benefits

Economist Trevor Tombe and the CBC have come up with some modelling of the federal carbon levy, and lo, there remains yet more proof that for most households, the price and rebate system do in fact leave people better off. And more to the point, it also proves that removing the price—the “axe the tax” that Pierre Poilievre has been touring the country to promote, would only benefit people making over $250,000/year, which is pretty much the top one percent of income earners in the country.

This should be nothing new—back when they were in government, the Conservatives kept producing boutique tax credit after boutique tax credit that they kept claiming would help “ordinary” Canadians, when in fact they were structed in such a way as to really only benefit the wealthiest households. It’s not an uncommon trick from right-wing parties, particularly as they convince people to vote against their own best interests, but once again, they have created a massive disinformation campaign to claim that the carbon price is what is driving inflation and in particular food price inflation, when it’s simply not true, and that killing it will “make life affordable,” or that people will be able to “eat and heat their homes” again, which again, are not really being made unaffordable because of the carbon price, but other factors at play. And even with this data to prove that they’re lying, they’ll insist that it’s wrong, or that Tombe and the CBC are the ones doing the disinformation (which is why they attack academics and the media), but we need to be calling out that the Conservatives have been lying to the public as a way of rage-farming to drive votes and engagement.

Meanwhile, Tombe has also collaborated on another analysis of carbon prices in BC (which is separate from the federal system, but at the same price level), and finds that lo, they contributed a whole 0.33 percent to the price of food, which is of course what the Conservatives keep claiming is driving up food costs. It’s not—climate change is. Just this week, Statistics Canada released this year’s crop production data, and thanks to drought on the Prairies, crop yields are down this year—not as bad as it was in 2021, but wheat is down 6.9%, barley yields down 10.9%, and oat yields down 49.6%. This is the kind of thing that is affecting food prices, not the carbon price, but Conservatives will keep lying to you.

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1732071690480562570

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian authorities say that they downed ten of seventeen Russian drones in an overnight attack, that hit targets in both the west and east of the country. As aid for Ukraine from the US is under debate, president Volodymyr Zelenskyy had to cancel a planned virtual meeting with US lawmakers, as the Republicans are trying to tie that aid to border measures. Zelenskyy is slated to meet virtually with G7 leaders today.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/status/1732084917708759146

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QP: Did you watch my documentary?

While the prime minister was in town, he was not present, though his deputy was. Most of the other leaders were absent as well, for what it’s worth. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he decried that rent was rising faster than salaries, and blamed the prime minister for it, and implored him to watch his “documentary” which he called “common sense,” and demanded a “common sense” plan. Sean Fraser got up to respond that it was a shame that Poilievre doesn’t put as much energy into generating housing policy as he does videos, and that the reality was when when he looks at Poilievre’s proposals, it would mean fewer houses get built. Poilievre insisted that minster must not have watched his “common sense” video, which he claimed was being “widely acclaimed” (it’s not), and listed some of his proposals. Fraser said that while Poilievre was more concerned about clicks, he was concerned about putting roofs over people’s heads. Poilievre mocked the progress the government has made and their insistence of photo ops, to which Fraser pointed out that Poilievre likes to go around the country on the taxpayer’s expense, and take photos in front of projects the government funded. Poilievre gave a soliloquy about how all of the government’s projects are imaginary, and this time, Fraser pointed out how much the government’s housing strategy has provided, and that they have turned the corner after three decades of federal inaction. Poilievre gave another pitch for his nonsense plan, and Fraser responded with the responsibility that they all have to ensure that everyone has a home.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and wanted to know how long the heritage minister knew that cuts were happening at CBC/Radio-Canada, as though she is the manager in charge. Pascale St-Onge praised their record on reinvesting in CBC and the media sector. Therrien then went on a rant about Catherine Tait having her term expend to make these cuts, to which St-Onge reminds him that CBC operates at arm’s length, and that they were doing more the media sector thanks to their Online News Act.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, took a swipe at St-Onge, before worrying about the Operation Santa Claus letters about children asking for food, and turned it into a rant about grocery giants. Chrystia Freeland talked about how the Canada Child Benefit has lifted families out of poverty but they were also advancing new competition measures. Alaister MacGregor took over in English to decry the grocery CEOs, to which Freeland repeated her praise about benefits, and their bill to enhance competition. 

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QP: Self-contradicting economic demands

The prime minister was off in Toronto making housing announcements, and his deputy was on the West Coast for her own announcement. Most of the other leaders were also absent, but not Pierre Poilievre. He led off in French, as he so often does, and he accused the prime minister of replacing the joy of Christmas with poverty, according to Operation Santa Claus letters, and he blamed deficit spending. Anita Anand praised the Canada Child Benefit for lifting families out of poverty, and encouraged the Conservatives to vote for their bill to “stabilise grocery prices” (well, indirectly anyway). Poilievre then called the government hypocrites at for how much they fly, to which François-Philippe Champagne said that people can see who the real hypocrisy are because the opposition leader only opposes investment in the green economy. Poilievre switched to English to decry “stagflation” in the last quarter, blaming high deficits, taxes, and red tape, while the American economy was roaring. Anand wanted to remind everyone that they have an economic plan, and recited good news economic talking points to prove their plan was working. Poilievre returned to the accusation of hypocrisy for how much the environment minister has flown before demanding that they cut the carbon price, for which Champagne patted himself on the back for attracting foreign investment in the green economy. Poilievre then raised the court challenge from Ontario First Nations about the carbon price. Patty Hajdu noted that these nations are independent, decried the Conservatives’ colonial attitudes, and listed the investments they have made to those communities.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and demanded the federal government transfer $460 million to Quebec for asylum seekers, insisting they were solely a federal problem (which is not true—they are only federal once their claims re accepted). Don Vandal said that asylum seekers are a shared jurisdiction and they continue to converse with the province. Therrien made another demand, and this time Pablo Rodriguez says there is no fight, just that the Bloc is trying to pick one.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video, and worried about the revelations from the US about assassination plots from India. Dominic LeBlanc said that the RCMP and policing partners across the country are taking this seriously, and cooperating with American law enforcement. Singh switch to French to repeat the concerns from Operation Santa Claus in Quebec, to which Anand plugged the bill they tabled to help build the economy.

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QP: Just impotently wailing about Senate votes

While the prime minister was in town, he was not at QP, though his deputy was for a change. Most of the other leaders were also absent, for what it’s worth. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and accused the prime minister of subsidising three different battery plants to the tune of $44 billion, and lied about staffing them with “foreign replacement workers,” demanding to see the contracts for each plant. François-Philippe Champagne said that Canadians can see where Conservatives stand, and that when Poilievre was employment minister, he oversaw the loss of 300,000 manufacturing jobs in the country, and that these plants will create Canadian jobs. Poilievre said that Champagne would be a good employment minister for South Korea, before railing about how much the government was spending on servicing the debt. Chrystia Freeland noted that Canada has the lowest debt and deficit of all G7 countries plus a Aaa credit rating, while having a responsible plan that could make the necessary investments in the economy. Poilievre switched to English to cite the stats about food bank use, and demanded that C-234, on carving out more carbon prices for farmers, get passed. Freeland patted herself on the back for programmes like child care and dental care, and said that Poilievre’s plan for cuts is not common sense but nonsense. Poilievre repeated his demand for the bill to pass, to which Karina Gould said that once again, Poilievre was proving he couldn’t tell the truth to a Canadians, at which point she was being drowned out by the Conservatives. The Speaker warned her about not “approaching the limit of what is parliamentary.” Poilievre then continued to lie about the effect of the carbon price on food, and again demanded the bill get passed. Gould got back and says that just because he says something, it doesn’t mean it’s true, and gave a laundry list of falsehoods including that the government doesn’t direct the Senate.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he cited StatsCan figures around rental increases, and blamed the immigration targets for the rise. Marc Miller responded that Quebec controls its immigration levels and to blame the rise only on immigration was just rich. Therrien accused the government of getting their immigration targets by way of a Ouija board, and Miller dismissed this as not being a serious question.

Jenny Kwan demanded the government turn empty buildings into housing immediately, to which Freeland listed off their programmes to build, build, build. Lindsay Mathyssen repeated the thrust of the question with a slightly different frame, and this time Jenna Sudds recited that the government is helping families get by.

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QP: Goading the Conservatives on Ukraine

The prime minister was off to meet EU leaders in Newfoundland and Labrador, while his deputy was doing photo ops in Toronto. Even Pierre Poilievre was away today, as were every other leader. Andrew Scheer led off, and after giving the new “time’s up” slogan, he misquoted the Scotiabank report and demanded the government balance the budget. Randy Boissonnault got up to denounce the Conservatives for the voting against the Ukraine trade deal. Scheer repeated the lie that the government is forcing a carbon price on Ukraine, before repeating his demand for a balanced budget. Karina Gould pointed out that there was no carbon price in the trade deal, and brought up that Poilievre falsely called yesterday’s Rainbow Bridge incident a terror incident. Scheer demanded the government support their amendment to send more weapons and energy to Ukraine before rambling about the so-called “replacement” temporary foreign workers at the Stellantis plant, which again, has been debunked. Bill Blair got up to pat himsefl con the back for the billions in military aid sent to Ukraine. Gérard Deltell got up to repeat the demand for a balanced budget in French, to which François-Philippe Champagne praised the government’s efforts. Deltell railed that the government would force our great-grandchildren to pay the price for their mistakes, and Champagne implored for them to pass their affordability bill.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he decried the plan for interprovincial labour mobility for healthcare workers, and railed that this would disadvantage Quebec. Boissonnault pointed pivot that the federal government transfers hundreds of millions of dollars to Quebec to help francisise immigrants. Therrien insisted that all the federal government needed to do was increase transfers so that Quebec could hire more doctors on their own, to which Pablo Rodriguez said that Canadians can work together, whether the Bloc likes it or not.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP, and he accused the industry minister of not doing anything about the grocery CEOs. Champagne insisted that he stared down those CEOs and he forced them to stabilise prices, before imploring them to pass the affordability bill. Alistair MacGregor gave the English version of the same question, and Champagne accused the NDP of not doing anything for consumers and again implored them to pass that bill.

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Roundup: Saskatchewan wants to play constitutional chicken

The government of Saskatchewan tabled their bill to “protect” SaskEnergy from repercussions if they go ahead with their threat to not collect or remit the federal carbon price on natural gas, and well, it is hilariously ineffective. Why? Because the federal legislation makes it very clear who is responsible for the collection and remittance of those funds, and this bill is trying to use provincial legislation to change a federal definition. You can’t do that. Provinces do not have that ability. This is just setting up SaskEnergy and its directors to face these penalties, because the provincial government can’t say that they’ll accept the responsibility instead. Again, it doesn’t work that way.

The minister, Dustin Duncan, then went on Power & Politics and was pressed on this issue, and he flailed for a bit before trying to make this a game of chicken—they’re going to essentially dare the federal government to follow federal law, and hold the persons responsible for collecting and remitting those funds to account. Because this is the level of maturity we’re dealing with. At this point, I wouldn’t be surprised if the CEO and the board of SaskEnergy all walked off the job in protest of being put in this kind of legal jeopardy because Scott Moe is a child.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The death toll from the Russian strike on Selydove in eastern Ukraine doubled as more bodies were found in the rubble. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine has seized the initiative in the Black Sea thanks to their fleet of naval drones which has pushed back the Russians toward the eastern coasts. New UK foreign minister David Cameron visited Ukraine as his first trip on the job.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1725054494969373168

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QP: A fictional second coalition

The prime minister and his deputy were both present today, which has become somewhat unusual of late, and all other leaders were present as well. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he called out the Bloc for voting with the government on yesterday’s Conservative Supply Day motion, and that La Presse says that the Bloc wants to keep the Liberals in power for another two years, and that there was allegedly a call between the Bloc leader and the PM, and demanded to know the terms of this agreement. Justin Trudeau said that he was always willing to work with anyone to fight climate change, and that he was happy that the Bloc recognized the best way to fight it was with a carbon price and to help families, which is what they were doing. He added that he hasn’t had a recent call with the Bloc leader about anything other than the Middle East. Poilievre switched to English to claim that Trudeau found a “new coalition partner” in the Bloc to save him from a “confidence vote” (which was not a coincidence vote), and wondered what they were promised. Trudeau recited the lines about phasing out heating oil, and thanked the Bloc for believing in climate change. Poilievre was outraged that Trudeau thanked the separatists, decried his being divisive, and demanded to know again what he promised them. Trudeau said that he exchanges regularly with all leaders, but hadn’t with Blanchet recently except on the Middle East issue. Poilievre then raised that all of the premiers were against the carbon price and that they demanded he remove the carbon price on home heating. Trudeau spoke about Canadians being united in the fight against climate change. Poilievre then tried to question about the NDP’s supposed flip-flopping positions. The Speaker noted that he didn’t sound like a question on the administrative responsibility of the government, but Trudeau rose anyway to denounce the Conservatives for not believing in climate change.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, noted that there was no call and the only true thing Poilievre said was that they are separatists, before he pointed out that the Liberals and the Conservatives are still advertising on Facebook in spite of their attempts to intimidate Canada. Trudeau gave another round of praise for being united on the climate, before saying that they were trying to find a way to get web giants to pay for journalism. Blanchet raised the 500 layoffs at TVA, and demanded the government do something, and Trudeau insisted that they are defending media against the web giants, which the Conservatives will stand up for.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and gave pro forma denunciations of both the Liberals and Conservatives before demanding support for their Supply Day motion on taking the GST off of home heating. Trudeau said that he was surprised that the NDP don’t seem to be that interested in phasing out heating oil. Singh reiterated his same demand for support in French, and Trudeau responses with his paean about phasing out heating oil and replacing it with heat pumps.

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