Tag Archives: Trade

Roundup: Greetings, Exalted One

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In a very real sense, the day was pretty anticlimactic given the build-up. Prime minister Mark Carney arrived at the White House, didn’t succumb to an intimidation handshake, and when they got to the Oval Office, Trump rambled and dissembled, and Carney got in a word or two edgewise that was both obsequious flattery, but also deep shade, saying that Trump was a “transformational” leader and got the world re-engaged in defence issues. (Yes, he has, but for reasons other than those Trump believes. When the topic of annexation came up, Carney phrased it in the language of real estate in that some things are not for sale—the White House, Buckingham Palace, and Canada—and while Trump said “never say never,” Carney kept mouthing “never.” But that was about it. There was no pile-on by JD Vance, no attempt at humiliation, though Trump gratuitously insulted both Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland (who is still in Carney’s Cabinet).

https://bsky.app/profile/lsaffs.bsky.social/post/3lojcqx6ptk24

One of the things that was notable was that Trump insisted that the New NAFTA isn’t dead, which is funny since he’s stomped all over it and broken it so many times that it’s not worth the paper it’s written on, but there you have it. Carney says this is the first step of many, and he’s keeping expectations super low, talking about controlling the things we can control (which obviously excludes Trump himself). He also insists that he pushed back on the annexation talk in private, not that I’m sure it’ll have any effect. The Canadian Press fact-checks some of Trump’s nonsense here. Some more reaction quotes from the day here.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-05-06T21:22:13.862Z

Conservative caucus

The other news was that the Conservatives held a day-long caucus retreat, and they voted to once again abide by the (garbage) Reform Act provisions that claim to let them topple a leader (even though they don’t actually need the Act’s provisions to do so, and the Act merely reinforces a pattern of learned helplessness among MPs who have surrendered their power), and they decided that Andrew Scheer will be the parliamentary leader in Poilievre’s absence until he can get himself a seat. Why Scheer? Because he’s a) loyal to Poilievre, b) is in no danger of trying to keep the leadership himself as a former failed leader, and c) the party doesn’t have to worry about a Rona Ambrose-kind of leader who proves popular and sane, and whom the public would demand to be made leader permanently. Yes, that’s a sad reflection of where the party is at, as is the fact that they don’t really seem to want to learn the right lessons from their election loss. (More reaction from caucus here.) Oh, and Poilievre did finally call Bruce Fanjoy to congratulate him on winning in Carleton, so that only took a week.

*Sigh* No, the (garbage) Reform Act doesn't give MPs or caucus more powers. They have all the power they need to depose a leader if they really wanted to. The Act's provisions actually constrain MPs' powers. #PnPCBC

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-06T21:53:41.456Z

https://twitter.com/TabathaSouthey/status/1919898954335916144

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians launched drones overnight at Kyiv, killing two people. This after a missile attack on the city of Sumy killed three people. Drones from Ukraine shut down Moscow’s airports in advance of their Victory Day in WWII celebrations, and Russia’s unilateral 72-hour “ceasefire.” Ukraine’s army chief says that they have stalled Russia’s attack on Pokrovsk, which is a logistics hub in Donetsk region. Russia and Ukraine have exchanged 205 prisoners of war each.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1919779056641265687

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1919672711413973378

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Roundup: The changing votes of the 905

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There was an interesting piece in the Star over the weekend, where a bunch of their reporters went out into the 905 belt around Toronto, in order to talk to newcomer communities who have been increasingly switching their votes from the Liberals to the Conservatives, and managed to capture a few of those ridings this time around (and costing the Liberals their majority). But while we shouldn’t always assume that immigrant and newcomer communities will be Liberals, even though there has been this particular trope that they have been told to vote Liberal because Pierre Trudeau really opened up immigration into this country back in the seventies, I do think that trope is overused and misses some of the other points, like the fact that they often pick up on dog-whistling by Conservatives, or that their ways of trying to engage with newcomer communities can be ham-fisted (such as the famous example of Jason Kenney going to every ethno-cultural buffet event and saying things like “I hear you guys hate the gays too. You should vote for us!” And no, that didn’t wind up being successful, even though a mythology was built up around it that doesn’t reflect voter turnout).

What I found instead in this Star piece was that in many of these communities, they were blaming the federal Liberals and Justin Trudeau for things that are squarely within provincial jurisdiction—like housing, or the uptick in crime that that has been hammered away at in those areas. No, none of the reporters made this distinction in the story, and we find ourselves back in the place where nobody in this country wants to hold the premiers to account for their failures. (For their corruption, yes, to an extent, but not their failures to do their jobs). Pierre Poilievre has successfully weaponised the incompetence of the premiers against the federal Liberals and Trudeau in particular, which Trudeau let him get away with time and again because he refused to call the premiers out. But the even bigger irony is that these are regions that have increasingly been voting for Doug Ford, who has been the cause of, or done nothing about, the very problems they are raising as to why they switched their votes.

I would also note that there are some other fairly disturbing undertones in some of the responses from these voters—far-right talking points like “mass immigration,” for example, or the fact that they appear to be pulling up the ladder behind them. They immigrated this country and bought houses in these suburbs, but immigrants who came in behind them and can’t find affordable housing are the problem? Do you see the issue here? I think this is a warning sign we should be paying more attention to, but again, if the premiers did their fucking jobs, we wouldn’t be seeing some of these issues able to take root within these newcomer communities.

Ukraine Dispatch

An overnight drone attack on Kyiv has injured at least 11, as Russia is calling for a ceasefire in advance of celebrations to mark the anniversary of VE Day. The mayor of the Russian port city of Novorossiisk has called a state of emergency after an alleged Ukrainian drone attack. Ukraine says that they shot down a Russian Su-30 fighter jet with a missile fired from one of their maritime drones.

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Roundup: Numbers firming up post-election

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The numbers in the election have firmed up more, and the final count is that the Liberals managed 169 seats–just three shy of a majority. That does mean they can likely work with the NDP’s seven to maintain a functional majority in most things, but as I wrote in my column, some of this is going to depend on the mood of the Bloc, given that they will be the force to be reckoned with on the committees now that the NDP will no longer have any seats on them.

The King of Canada and his prime minister would have a lot to talk about on the day after a federal electionMaybe also about a regal Speech from the Throne to open the new Parliament?

— Patricia Treble (@patriciatreble.bsky.social) 2025-04-30T00:07:13.146Z

In election fallout stories:

  • Voter turnout was 68.6 percent, which is the highest in 31 years.
  • Here is a recounting of Bruce Fanjoy’s election night as his team learned in the wee hours that they had formally ousted Poilievre.
  • CBC has six takeaways from the election
  • Poilievre may have to vacate Stornoway if he doesn’t have a seat.
  • Yves-François Blanchet is in the mood to collaborate for the time being, saying that the country needs stability and not the threat of another election.
  • Much of the Conservatives’ “economic brain trust” (ahem, such as it was) lost their seats, including Poilievre.
  • The Star hears from Conservatives and NDPers about where their parties go next.
  • Here are the fiscal consequences of the NDP losing official party status (but doesn’t actually explain the point is they don’t have enough MPs to put on committees).
  • Both Danielle Smith and Scott Moe gave their “congratulations” on Carney’s victory, but really, they just made more demands.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1917182119689793978

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones attacked Kharkiv and Dnipro overnight, killing at least one and injuring at least 46. Russian troops have also been trying to advance into the Sumy region.

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Roundup: Admitting to threats on the call with Trump

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Day thirty-three, and while the leaders made their final pitches, the talk remained mostly about Poilievre’s own riding, whether the polls could be believed, or the fact that he scheduled a last-minute rally on the last night of the campaign there, or the fact that people from the war room who were supposed to be sent to Peterborough were sent there to canvas instead. So there’s that.

Mark Carney was in Port Moody, BC, and gave another BC-centric campaign pitch, where he faced questions about his call with Trump in March, and whether Trump did make 51st state comments. Carney admitted he did because this is Trump we’re talking about, but the rest of the discussion was about sovereign countries making a deal, and so he left it at that. That didn’t stop the Conservatives and NDP from howling about it, the Conservatives in particular going off about how Carney is a liar (erm, you have looked in a mirror, right?) and so on. From there, Carney headed to Winnipeg for a campaign event. Carney will be in Sault Ste. Marie this morning, and then heads to Georgetown, Cambridge, and London, Ontario.

Pierre Poilievre was in Halifax at an auto dealership to proclaim his promise to scrap the electric vehicle mandate, but made up a completely bullshit claim that said mandate would impose a “$20,000 tax on gas-powered cars,” which was ludicrously untrue. The Conservative platform also claims that they would somehow get billions in revenue from scrapping said mandate, but he also promised to uphold any of the deals with manufacturers or battery plants for EVs in Canada, so it’s another case of magical growth projections with no basis in reality. From there he headed to a rally in Saskatoon. Poilievre starts the day in Saskatoon, and heads to Nanoose Bay, BC for another rally.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1915501642373640336

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1915428323624206805

Jagmeet Singh was in Winnipeg to declare that he would ensure that the government didn’t put a laundry list of things on the table as bargaining chips in trade talks, most of which they never would anyway, so it’s yet another example of empty posturing. Singh then headed to Toronto. Singh starts his day in Toronto, before heading to Hamilton and London, looking to hold onto their seats in those ridings.

In other campaign news, the CBC has a look at Calgary, where the Liberals have a chance to win as many as four seats. There is also talk about how the federal Conservatives fell out with their Nova Scotia brethren, which included a threatening call from Jenni Byrne. Meanwhile, Singh tells the Star that he didn’t go for an early election (in spite of the constant threats) to hand Poilievre a majority, even if it meant they could win more seats, and insists he has no regrets. This while the NDP are back to running phantom candidates in Quebec ridings, meaning they still have not grassroots in the province.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-04-24T21:27:18.825Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The death toll from the massive attack on Kyiv has reached 12, with at least 90 injured, which also prompted Trump to react (but then said Putin’s concessions included not invading all of Ukraine, which…is not a concession). The missiles used in that strike were North Korean in origin.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1915360570745786543

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Roundup: Singh says he’s not dead yet

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Day thirty-two, and we are reaching the phase of the campaign where resources and people are being shifted to ridings that they are most concerned about, and the leaders’ stops will reflect this. There is also talk that the Conservatives are pouring resources into Poilievre’s own riding because it increasingly feels in jeopardy, in part because the Liberal challenger has been working the doors for four years.

Mark Carney was in Victoria, where he gave the BC-centric version of his campaign pitch, before making stops in White Rock, New Westminster, and Surrey, which is a direct play for the NDP seats in the area. Carney will start the day in Port Moody, BC, before heading to Winnipeg.

Pierre Poilievre was in Stoney Creek, Ontario, where he thanked police associations for their endorsement before reiterating his plan to give them new powers to dismantle tent encampments (as though that solves any of the underlying problems that has led to their rise). He then headed to Trenton, Nova Scotia, for a rally. Poilievre will start the day in Halifax before heading to Saskatoon, as he has not yet stopped in Saskatchewan this election.

Jagmeet Singh was in Edmonton to re-announce his “plan” for national rent control, which is exclusive provincial jurisdiction, and to declare that he’s not dead yet, and there are still five days left. He then headed to Winnipeg to shore up their two seats there. Singh participated in an AFN virtual meeting, where he made a tonne of promises he can’t keep.  Singh will start his day in Winnipeg before heading to Toronto.

In other campaign news, the after it was pointed out that the Conservatives left out their promise to “fight woke ideology” from their platform document, they said that was a publishing error and put it back in. The Logic has their longread profileof Poilievre. Mélanie Joly has openly called for a majority parliament while Carney has been cagey, so cue the tut-tutting about “arrogance” and so on. The Star fact-checks Carney’s statements last week (and this remains the dumbest possible fact-check methodology).

Poilievre says he doesn't watch TV, but "a little bit of UCF on my YouTube." That…tracks, actually.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-23T14:54:48.403Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A massive missile and drone strike hit Kyiv overnight, killing nine and injuring at least 63. Russian drones killed seven in a strike on the city of Marhanets, while an energy facility in Kherson was destroyed by Russian artillery and drone attacks. A Ukrainian drone strike damaged a Russian drone production site in Tatarstan. President Zelenskyy is rejecting any “peace” proposal that would surrender Crimea to Russia permanently.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1915005378225373500

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Roundup: A “fun with numbers” platform

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Day thirty-one, and the Conservatives swallowed up the news cycle with the release of their “costed” platform at long last, and well, it soon became clear as to why that was the case. (Some campaign photos here). Mark Carney was in Quebec City to reiterate his plans focused on Quebec in particular, especially as they relate to Quebec identity and the economy, before lambasting the Conservatives’ “costed” platform (more on that below). Carney then had stops in Shefford, Saint-Bruno, and Laval.

Pierre Poilievre was in Woodbridge, Ontario, where he finally unveiled his “costed” platform, and the term is used very loosely because hoo boy. It was mostly full of magical mystery math that books phantom revenues—including from resource projects that don’t exist and likely won’t exist in a four-year timeframe—and from cuts to things like consulting services or government IT, which rarely actually delivers real savings. Oh, and it doesn’t actually eliminate the deficit like they’ve been touting, even with the overly optimistic phantom revenues. (For contrast, the Liberals’ platform doesn’t include revenue assumptions). There was a promise to hold referendums for tax increases, which a) neuters the role of Parliament, b) has blown up in the faces of those who instituted this in places like California, and c) is empty posturing because you can’t bind a future government, so the law is easily repealed. And then, to distract from the faulty promises and bad math, Poilievre veered into a performance about a document from Policy Horizons Canada which he claimed were doomsday forecasts when they are actually a number of largely implausible scenarios to force policy-makers to consider some various worst-case scenarios, and are not in fact forecasts at all, not that he would tell you differently. (Write-ups from CBC, The Star, The Logic, the National Post, CTV, and the Globe and Mail). At some point in the day, Poilievre attended a “virtual forum” with the AFN, but remained cagey about his criticisms of UNDRIP. Poilievre later held a rally in Vaughan. He’ll be in Stoney Creek, Ontario, this morning, before heading to Trenton, Nova Scotia.

The Conservative plan is out and, ooof, is this costing a disaster.There's a whole bunch of phantom revenues booked here, and the GST housing pledge is costed at under $2B. Given their proposed eligibility criteria, it should be more in the 4-6B range.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T14:40:58.000Z

The Conservative plan books extra revenue from economic growth caused by their policies. The idea that economic growth will lead to improved finances isn't unreasonable. Budget 2024 shows that 100 bps of economic growth is worth $5B a year to the federal budget.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T17:51:23.000Z

The Conservatives are booking anywhere from $3B-10B of additional revenue each year from economic-related growth. The average year sees an additional $6B+ in revenue, associated with 128bps in economic growth.This is a near doubling of TD Econ's growth forecasts.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T17:51:29.000Z

The CPC platform books *extra* revenue of about $13B from their new capital gains deferral idea.But allowing people to defer capital gains will *cost* revenue.I'm guessing they assume *huge* new economic activity will be generated? You'd maybe need about $100B in new GDP to do that. Interesting.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T15:38:08.921Z

Or the whole debacle when the established Shared Services and cut their budget by the projected savings before they had done any of the enterprise transformation work.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T15:33:29.326Z

A couple of other thoughts:-Repealing Bill C-75 won't do much for bail other than roll back tougher bail conditions for domestic violence-Repealing Bill C-83 will do nothing about Paul Bernardo because the bill was about solitary confinement-Repealing Bill C-5 won't stop auto theft.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T19:13:59.627Z

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1914778670381838356

In all seriousness, I haven't seen "fun with numbers" costing like this in a Conservative platform since the 2014 Ontario PC campaign.

— Dr. Mike P. Moffatt (@mikepmoffatt.bsky.social) 2025-04-22T14:52:57.000Z

Jagmeet Singh was in Vancouver, where he mostly shit-talked Brookfield and Carney before begging people to vote NDP in order to prevent Carney from getting a “supermajority” (which is not a Thing in Canadian politics). Singh then headed to his home riding of Burnaby, and then to Edmonton. Singh remains in Edmonton this morning before heading to Winnipeg.

In other campaign news, Elections Canada says that a record 7.3 million people voted in the advance polls over the Easter long weekend. Former PBO Kevin Page rated the Liberal platform more favourably than the Conservatives’ (for fairly obvious reasons). Here are two more longread profiles of Carney, this time from the Globe and Mail and The Logic, and each covers different aspects of crises he’s faced in the past.

https://bsky.app/profile/blakeshaffer.bsky.social/post/3lnh54yn6gk2i

Ukraine Dispatch

Three people were injured in the Russian drone attack on Odesa overnight Monday. One woman was killed and some 26 others were injured in a guided bomb attack on Zaporizhzhia yesterday. President Zelenskyy indicated that Chinese nationals are working in Russian drone factories, and that Russia may have stolen Chinese drone technology.

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Roundup: A disinformation fest in the English debate

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Day twenty-six, and the second day of debates. Both Mark Carney and Jagmeet Singh had photo ops in Montreal before the debate, while Pierre Poilievre stayed quiet. And it looks like no one is downing tools today, in spite of it being a statutory holiday—Carney will be in Niagara Falls, followed by Colborne and Brantford. I didn’t get Poilievre’s itinerary, while Singh starts the day in Yamachiche, Quebec, and then ends the day in Burnaby, BC.

In other campaign news, the Conservatives had other incumbents release the second part of their Arctic defence policy, and it appears that they didn’t consult with any Northerners or Inuit for this part either.

And then the English debate, or as it should more properly be called, a disinformation fest. The sheer volume of utter horseshit uttered was absolutely astonishing, and yet nobody was challenged or called out on hardly any of it. Steve Paikin as moderator had a fairly light tough for much of it, and allowed a lot of talking over one another, but did keep things moving at a fairly good clip in order to have a couple of rapid-fire rounds at the end, though near the end, there was a “Leader’s Choice” segment where each leader could ask a question of one another, and everyone chose Carney to attack (quelle surprise), while Carney picked Poilievre, and returned to the security clearance issue (which Poilievre yet again lied about). I also note that at the top of each thematic section, Paikin asked a different question of each of the leaders, so they weren’t answering the same and made it hard to compare them.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3ln2atae4lk2y

Poilievre is again lying about "printing money" and inflation. Carney: "I know you want to run against Justin Trudeau. Justin Trudeau is not here." #debate

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-18T00:41:27.247Z

Poilievre lying about being "gagged" if he gets his security clearance. He would merely need to be responsible in his commentary, which he refuses to do. #debate

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-18T00:46:11.096Z

As for the leaders themselves, Carney again kept his cool, even when constantly being talked over, and just kept trying to make his point with “If I may,” before they shut up. I also noted that he would keep saying how many points he had for responses before listing those points, but he also did have the occasional misspeak (for example referring to TMX as “Keystone.”) Poilievre pretty much spent the whole exercise lying about absolutely everything, shamelessly, and was not challenged on about 99 percent of it, which doesn’t help the average viewer. Singh was a little less hyper than last night, and we avoided any tantrums tonight, because the moderator did give him the chance to talk about healthcare, but also challenged him on it about the jurisdictional issue, which Singh, of course, talked around rather than answering. And as for Blanchet, he kept trying to make a pitch for a minority parliament where he can exert influence. He also demanded that whoever becomes prime minister call the other leaders to meet one week after the election in order to discuss the various crises we’re facing. (Here are the recaps from The Canadian Press, CBC, National Post, and the Star, and six takeaways from the debate).

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3ln2afzfgac22

Poilievre's dodge on Indigenous incarceration was astounding. Just absolutely amazing that he could get away with that. #debate

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-17T23:42:39.614Z

Paikin actually corners Singh on how he would deal with provinces who don't want to spend his healthcare dollars the way he wants. Singh just talks around it, doesn't actually say how he would force the provinces. #debate

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-18T00:19:58.773Z

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3ln2bndu4ds2h

The other notable part of the evening was that the post-debate scrums were cancelled, because of an ostensible safety issue after Rebel media started trying to accost other journalists, including trying to interrupt CBC’s broadcast before the debate. The fact that the Debate Commission’s chair didn’t even realise that Rebel and Ezra Levant had registered as third party advertisers with Elections Canada should have meant an automatic disqualification, but he said he was so afraid of losing another lawsuit meant he just caved to their demands, which is yet again another sign of democracy being under assault in this country.

Debates Commission has cancelled the post-debate scrums after this English leaders debate. This cancellation follows an altercation prior to the debate involving Rebel News and other journalists. #elxn45

— davidakin (@davidakin.bsky.social) 2025-04-18T00:23:05.379Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles struck Kharkiv, killing one and injuring at least 57, as president Zelenskyy notes that Russia has shifted from targeting energy facilities to civilian targets. Russians on the front lines appear to be shifting to using mass-assault tactics as they try to advance. Ukraine says they have signed a memorandum as a first step toward a mineral deal with the US, which would involve setting up an investment fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1913102312286900366

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Roundup: No blows landed in the French debate

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Day twenty-five, and right as the day got started, the Greens were disinvited from the leaders’ debates because they had told the media that they held back several nominations for “strategic reasons,” and the commission could no longer say that their not meeting the candidate threshold was for “innocent” reasons like not getting enough signatures in time. The Greens complained that it wasn’t democratic and that it favoured parties that already had “their turn,” but seriously? You made that choice.

Mark Carney had a photo op in Montreal where he got some poutine to “fuel up” for the debate, while neither Pierre Poilievre nor Jagmeet Singh had public events, and it looks like it’ll be more of the same today before the English debate.

In other campaign news, the Conservatives unveiled a fisheries policy,

And then the French debate.

It was…fine. There really wasn’t much in the way of standout moments, and it was relatively well-behaved, barring one or two exceptions, and the moderator was the one punctuating it with a few editorial comments and jabs. Carney showed greatly improved French, and he was frequently brief and concise on some issues, but at others he went into details (albeit slowly) and got cut off for it. But he didn’t really screw up on anything and came away unscathed. Poilievre was frequently a robot with a rictus grin, reciting his pre-prepared talking points about his platform plans, and occasionally trotting out the swipes at Justin Trudeau, which Carney shrugged off, and ultimately, Poilievre wasn’t able to land any punches. Yves-François Blanchet would frequently take over and dominate conversations, and on several occasions would “speak for Quebec,” never mind that he certainly doesn’t speak for much of the province in spite of claiming to. Singh, in spite of his being under the weather, was the one constantly interrupting and demanding attention. He kept trying to bring healthcare into the debate, in spite of it not being a topic, and got cut off at one point when he didn’t stop, and toward the end, he threw a tantrum and attacked the moderator because he *gasp!* tried to do his job and keep the leaders on topic, and not bring up something unrelated. Imagine that.

(Recaps from The Canadian Press, CBC, National Post, and the Star, and here are seven notable moments).

Trying to nail Poilievre down on whether he'd force pipeline through provinces or First Nations, Poilievre keeps refusing to admit that anyone would refuse. It's a bit weird. #debate

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-16T23:05:51.576Z

He says he wouldn’t subsidize a pipeline and says red tape reduction would stimulate investment in them. That is…a whopper lol.

— David Moscrop (@davidmoscrop.com) 2025-04-16T23:06:00.095Z

And we're into Century Initiative bullshit.*sigh* Will anybody challenge it? Of course not. #debate

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-16T23:24:23.826Z

A couple of the exchanges stood out, one being the moderator asking the leaders which American products they’ve given up, and it just turned into interminable jokes about strawberries, after the issue during the Cinq chefs interviews a couple of weeks ago, where the interviewers asked Carney if he buys American strawberries and he didn’t have an answer for them. There was also a question that asked whether the federal government should create its own health programmes or just increase transfers to the provinces, and it was a lot of back-and-forth that said very little, and as you might expect, there was absolutely nothing about holding any premiers to account for their allowing healthcare to collapse.

After the debate were the scrums, and it turned out that Rebel “News” had bullied the debate commission into letting them bring five reporters, each supposedly representing a “division” of the organisation, whereas legitimate organisations each got one reporter and one cameraman. It’s an admission that bullying and lawfare works, which it shouldn’t, but here we are.

Ukraine Dispatch

Glide bombs and artillery struck Kherson Wednesday morning, killing one and wounding nine. There was a mass drone attack on Dnipro overnight, killing three and wounding at least thirty.

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Roundup: Letting a hockey game take precedence

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Day twenty-four, and the announcements didn’t really matter because the only thing anyone was concerned about was the fact that tonight’s French debate was at the same time as a Montreal Canadiens hockey game, and the Bloc and NDP demanded the debate be rescheduled (but when exactly, given that it’s Easter weekend and that’s when the advance polls are open). So, the organizers and the networks agreed to change the time to 6 from 8, which means that it’ll be on at 3 for anyone out in BC. Yeah, that’s going to get viewership by francophones in the west. We are such a parochial country sometimes.

Mark Carney was in Saint-Eustache, Quebec, and announced a plan to provide more assistance for job training or retraining in certain priority areas, with some additional promises for those whose jobs are affected by the tariffs. Carney will have a photo op in Montreal around noon before the debate, now two hours earlier.

Pierre Poilievre was in Montreal, and he announced plans to crack down on people who scam seniors, which means forcing phone companies and banks to have mandatory “scam detection systems,” which sounds a bit like a magic wand given that the field is constantly changing to keep one step ahead. I also fail to see what tougher penalties will do given that the vast majority of these scams operate overseas. Poilievre will hold a press conference this morning, in advance of the debate.

Do we need to have a conversation about why those prices are up? -Beef continues to rise because drought has meant culling herds, which raises prices-Eggs are up because we have bird flu outbreaks, albeit not as bad as the US-That fruit figure is mostly oranges, because the FL crop was devastated

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-15T19:02:03.936Z

Are the Conservatives planning to do anything about climate change that has meant more droughts on the prairies? Nope. Part of what devastated the Floria orange crop were hurricanes, which are exacerbated by climate change. Again, do they want to do anything about that? Nope.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-15T19:02:03.937Z

Now, have the Liberals pointed any of this out? Of course not. They're too busy patting themselves on the back for killing the consumer carbon levy, and pretending that it was imposed by some mysterious force. We have real issues to discuss in this election, but they're not being discussed.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-15T19:02:03.938Z

Jagmeet Singh was also in Montreal, where he promised to restore the changes to the capital gains inclusion rate, under the rubric of making the ultra-wealthy pay the price, and promising to use these revenues to fund all of his promises (good luck with that magical money tree), but didn’t actually spell out the actual issue of tax arbitrage and fairness for all different types of capital gains to be taxed at the same rate. Singh’s only engagement today is the debate.

In other campaign news, Poilievre is now saying there’s no timeline for defunding CBC after previously saying he wants to do so as soon as possible. Carney says that he wants the F-35 review to go swiftly, but DND is still establishing the parameters of said exercise. And the White House confirmed that annexation talk is still on the president’s mind.

This election is *really* testing my limit.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-15T21:35:48.964Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones hit homes on Odesa overnight, injuring at least three. This after NATO secretary general Mark Rutte was in Odesa to reaffirm “unwavering” support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, life in Sumy is carrying on after Sunday’s deadly attacks.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1912116063560495426

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Roundup: Promising to invoke the Notwithstanding Clause

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Day twenty-three, and the campaigns are starting to converge around Montreal as debate prep starts to take over, but they are still getting platform planks announced in the meantime. Mark Carney was in Dorval, Quebec, to announce his plan to overhaul defence procurement, including re-promising a centralized agency, to focus on Canadian defence industries and those of non-US allies, along with some other pledges around giving members of the armed forces another raise, and working to reform recruitment processes to speed up intake. Carney also offered an apology for the bad button scandal, and said that the culprits have been “reassigned” on the campaign, which doesn’t exactly make it sound like they have suffered much in the way of consequences. Carney will be in Saint-Eustache for his morning announcement before returning to debate prep.

Pierre Poilievre was in Montreal, and he repeated a two-year-old promise to invoke the Notwithstanding Clause to ensure that multiple murders get consecutive sentences instead of concurrent, in defiance of the Supreme Court of Canada, but totally swears he wouldn’t invoke it for anything else. Really! It’s all so stupid because a) no mass murders have ever been given parole; b) this would only apply to future mass murders, not those currently serving life sentences, and it’s not going to act as a deterrent; and c) the Notwithstanding Clause needs to be renewed every five years, so this is really nothing more than an exercise in optics so that he looks tough. Poilievre will again hold his announcement today in Montreal before returning to debate prep.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lmrn7ukzyk2m

Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto, where he made a whole bunch of promises around healthcare that no federal government could possibly deliver on, because it’s provincial jurisdiction, but hey, he plans to “incentivize provinces.” What in the names of Apollo and Asklepios do you think that federal governments have been trying to do for four decades? How is it possible for him to be that naïve? Singh then headed to Montreal for his debate prep, and he will hold his own announcement there this morning.

In other campaign news, Carney’s campaign says that he has formally renounced his UK and Irish citizenships, and that he does indeed pay his taxes in Canada (because the Conservatives were trying to make more hay over this). LGBTQ+ groups around the country are hoping to hear more from the parties about addressing their issues (though some of them are provincial I must point out). The Debates Commission is defending the decision to invite the Greens even though they no longer meet the criteria of running candidates in at least 90 percent of ridings (which they apparently planned to, but not enough of them registered with Elections Canada).

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia made a second attack on Sumy on Monday, btu this one struck the outskirts of the city and no one was injured. There was also an overnight attack on Zaporizhzhia which ignited a petrol station. The Ukrainian air force said that Russia used new types of missiles and cluster bombs on their attack on Sumy on Sunday, which Russia is falsely claiming was targeting a military gathering, which everyone knows is false (except maybe Trump).

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