Regardless of the outcome of today’s caucus vote, Erin O’Toole is finished as leader—the only question is how long he lingers. Thanks to the (garbage) Reform Act, what should have been an exercise in reading the room has come down to weaponization, threats, and now a legalistic battle of wills where anything less than fifty-percent-plus-one will mean O’Toole will try to lord over the caucus until an eventual grassroots leadership review, which may or may not be sooner than the current date scheduled (pretty much acceding to what Senator Denise Batters sidelined for calling for). But the fact that we’ve even reached this point, months in the making, where more than a third of his caucus is alienated, means he’s unable to lead the party no matter what, and frankly, the (garbage) Reform Act is just making this situation worse than it needed to be.

O’Toole apparently spent the day working the phones, and apparently has been saying that he’s willing to change his policies if he survives—but isn’t that part of the problem that got him here? That he keeps changing his positions depending on the audience he’s in front of? I’m not sure how he thinks this promise helps him. Also, “coincidentally” an Astroturf grassroots group calling itself the “Majority Committee” launched itself yesterday morning, conveniently parroting the exact same lines O’Toole used in his challenge letter to his caucus, so that doesn’t look staged at all. Meanwhile, his former allies are lining up against him, a number of former MPs have added their names to an open letter calling for him to step down, so any illusion that continuing on as leader after this is really just delusion.

https://twitter.com/BobBenzen/status/1488633402400071682

Meanwhile, Andrew Coyne argues that it’s not O’Toole that needs to be ousted, but rather the unhinged yahoos in the caucus that are causing the party its biggest headaches. (I don’t disagree, but appealing to the yahoos is part of O’Toole’s problem). Althia Raj correctly notes that whatever the outcome of tomorrow’s vote, it’s untenable for O’Toole to stay. Matt Gurney (by video) wonders if this winds up leading to the break-up of the party.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1488522864269705222

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1488526887408353282

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1488528268106031108

Good reads:

• After QP yesterday were a series of unanimous consent motions to condemn some of the grifters’ activities, then the Conservatives got cute with one about Blackface.
• The Star asks what would happen if we acceded to the grifters’ demands and lifted all health restrictions, and the words “Russian roulette” are involved.
• Canada is considering more financial aid for COVAX for things like syringes, transportation and insurance.
• Public Works assures us that work on rehabilitating the Centre Block is on time and on budget.
• A design flaw is being blamed for the cracks that have appeared in the tails of the new Cyclone helicopters.
• The RCMP took some action against the blockade at the Coutts border crossing, but haven’t broken it completely yet.
• The chair of the CRTC says his meetings with the CEO of Bell were “as friends,” and come on guys, you know this cosiness is a huge problem for you.
• The Canadian Indigenous delegation has rescheduled their meeting with the Pope to the end of March.
• Surprising nobody, François Legault said he’s not moving ahead with his plan to tax the unvaccinated, because it was only ever a distraction to begin with.
• Kevin Carmichael recounts the prognostication of a Bay Street economist who worries that central banks raising rates too soon could stall recovery.
• Heather Scoffield is underwhelmed by the results of this week’s supply chain summit, and how the government seems unwilling to do more heavy lifting.
• Stephanie Carvin and Amarnath Amarasingam worry about the long-term impact of the grifter convoy on the maturation of tea party-style populism in Canada.
• Robert Hiltz warns that calls for police violence against the grifter convoy is a means of giving license for future police violence against other groups of protesters.
• Colby Cosh savages how useless Alberta’s law to provide criminal records checks to women checking up on partners to prevent domestic abuse is.
• My column warns that attempts by the Conservatives to cosy up to the grifter convoy will only wind up in tears, like it has for the Republicans in the US.

Odds and ends:

A reminder that building a tramway down Wellington Street is a good way to avoid future occupations by trucks like we’re seeing.

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