Category Archives: Political Roundup

What’s going on in Canadian politics

Roundup: CERB is go

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There were a lot of early piece of news in advance of Justin Trudeau’s daily presser – Doug Ford complaining that the province only had one week of supplies left as three million masks bound for Ontario were blocked at the US border (some half a million released later in the day), and Andrew Scheer helpfully demanding a “temporary” expansion of charitable tax credits.

When Trudeau did begin his presser, he spoke about the fact that the CERB was now online and thousands of applications had already poured in and the system hadn’t crashed. He also said that they were working on getting other benefit programmes in place for those whose hours were reduced, those who were still working but making less than they would be on CERB benefits, or students who didn’t qualify for benefits, and that there would be announcements for those soon. He also mentioned efforts at getting debt relief during the pandemic, and that they were working on bringing Parliament back to get the wage subsidy bill passed. During the Q&A, he spoke largely in generalities about working with the provinces and the US on resolving the issues around protective equipment (and by the end of the day, it seems that the mask issue had been settled and the Americans would once again allow shipments to flow to Canada), and that he was trying to find some kind of flexibility for a “virtual” parliament (which is a very bad thing and he should stop right there).

One thing Trudeau would not offer an opinion on was the mask debate, saying that it was not up for politicians to make these kinds of recommendations. During the ministerial presser shortly thereafter, Dr. Theresa Tam essentially reiterated her same advice that the only time you really need a mask is if you’re showing symptoms, and it could be helpful if you’re in a situation where physical distance is difficult – like on public transit – but repeated again that it’s not an official recommendation and that medical-grade masks should only be for medical personnel. And yet, despite this, everyone spent the rest of the day saying there were “new” mask guidelines (there weren’t), or that Tam had somehow reversed her previous position (she hadn’t), and there wasn’t a lot of focus on the fact that she repeated over and over that the problem with masks is they give people a false sense of confidence and they slack off on other measures like physical distancing or handwashing. But hey, everyone’s an armchair infectious disease specialist these days, so that’s what matters, right?

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Roundup: The Queen urges calm and restraint

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For his Sunday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau was once again in blue jeans and tie-less, and he spoke about how the CERB opens for applications today, and gave some rough timeline about when people can expect those benefits to start making their way to their accounts. He also said that Health Canada was looking for volunteers to help with things like contact tracing (and as for why these aren’t paid positions, I would imagine that the bureaucratic hoops to make that happen are simply too numerous to contemplate at the moment – federal hiring rules are complex). He also said that farms were looking for workers (given that there may be problems getting the temporary foreign workers that these farms depend on), and that the Canadian Forces were busy turning reserve forces into regulars. During the Q&A portion, he did talk about how he and his Cabinet were cognisant of their own potential for burnout during this crisis, as well as saying that civil servants were working to ensure that the CRA’s systems were not overloaded when the CERB portal opens, and he wouldn’t engage too much on speculation around the American president and his utterances around N95 masks.

During the presser that followed with Dr. Theresa Tam, she said that they were looking at ways to disinfect masks so that they can be reused several times in order to extend supplies, and asked that they not be thrown out.

A couple of hours later, we heard the address from the Queen on the current situation. While it was geared more toward the UK than to the Commonwealth, she did send a separate letter to Canada, which the Governor General posted to her site along with a message of her own.

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Roundup: Shelters and masks

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Because it was a Saturday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau appeared in jeans and without a tie, belying the more casual nature of the day at a time when days blend into one another. He had a couple of messages – that the government had invested another $40 million in shelters for women facing domestic violence (a particular consideration at a time when people are forced to stay home), and another $10 million for Indigenous women facing violence. He also pointed to $157 million in funds for the homeless, and that the communities where these funds were needed have been identified so funds were now flowing. On the subject of masks and medical devices, Trudeau stated that millions of more masks were expected in the next 48 hours (from the time of said announcement), and that the government had leased a warehouse in China to help coordinate the acquisition of these masks and supplies while they charter flights to carry them to Canada. Trudeau also noted that he would be speaking to his American counterpart in the coming days about the issue of masks and so on.

For her own presser, Dr. Theresa Tam reiterated yet again that these models that reporters keep demanding are not crystal balls, that they are not real numbers, that they aren’t predictions, and that they are highly sensitive to what is happening right now. But that hasn’t stopped the framing by reporters that these are hard data, and that they are indicative of anything in particular. And while here is an attempt to nuance the models Ontario released on Friday, but it’s one print article when TV reporters and headlines are framing it as disaster porn (and getting self-righteous about it).

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Roundup: Framing models as data

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For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau started off by saying that the government had signed an agreement with Amazon Canada – and not Canada Post – to manage the distribution of personal protective equipment to the provinces and territories when it is received by the federal government, but one imagines that this also involves warehousing and logistics than just simply delivery. He also announced $100 million being diverted to help meet food insecurity needs, through Food Banks Canada, as well as a variety of other breakfast clubs and other food organizations. He also mentioned his teleconference with the other premiers and their devotion to data sharing and projections, and that they were working to verify the latest figures that were being put online. During the Q&A, he confirmed that Canadian Forces – in the form of Rangers – have been dispatched to the Nunavik region of Northern Quebec, and addressed the news that the American president had ordered 3M to stop sending N95 masks to Canada and other Latin American countries (3M’s president pushed back citing humanitarian concerns and retaliation), and Trudeau stated that he has warned the Americans not to block access to needed supplies – particularly as Canada has many supplies and healthcare workers the Americans need, such as the 1000 nurses who live in Windsor but work in Detroit. It does highlight the need for more domestic production of these masks as competition for procurement gets more intense globally.

And then, Ontario released its modelling of some potential COVID-19 morbidity scenarios in the province, and the media went crazy. Despite the fact that this modelling is not data and that they are mere possible scenarios that are used for planning purposes, it was framed as “data” and in the language of how many people “will die,” as though this was mathematical certainty (though a handful said “could,” as though it were any better). And lo, all of the headlines used both this framing and sensationalism, they buried the new restrictions that are being imposed in Ontario as a result. And when some of the doctors that were being interviewed about these projections, and those doctors pushed back that this wasn’t data, self-righteous journalists threw tantrums about how this was information the public had a right to know, and so on.

But here’s the thing – part of this is a transparent attempt by Doug Ford to justify his further crackdowns, which I get. (Thread from Scott Reid here for context). But at the same time, there is no nuance to reporting of these models, they are incorrectly framed, and it’s throwing a lot of big numbers and timeframes out there without sufficient context. It’s not only disaster porn, but I fear that it will not actually have the desired effect of scaring people into compliance with lockdown measures. Instead, I am reminded of the aphorism that a single death is a tragedy, but a thousand deaths is a statistic – and numbers like these (the wild range of 3000 to 15,000) will have the real possibility of becoming a statistic in people’s minds, which may do more to undermine the whole reason why this modelling was released in the first place. And that worries me more than anything else.

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Roundup: Data-sharing and demanding models

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For his morning presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau noted that he was planning a teleconference with the premiers that evening to talk about coordinating their efforts, and better data sharing. He also stated that they had received 1 million new N95 masks the night before, and that they were working to validate the 10 million other masts they got over the past several days and were distributing those to the provinces as well. He got more questions on modelling the pandemic, saying that it was still coming because the data wasn’t there yet, and said that those returning to Canada from abroad posted a “real risk” to the entire country if they didn’t follow the rules and immediately self-isolate.

During the ministerial briefing that followed, Patty Hajdu wouldn’t entertain questions on whether or not she trusted the data coming out of China, saying that they relied on WHO data, and dismissing some of those concerns as conspiracy theories, which had the pundit sphere in a tizzy the rest of the day. Mark Miller also said that they were considering requests from a couple of different First Nations about military field hospitals being set up in their regions, while more money for pandemic preparedness was flowing. Bill Morneau had a separate appearance before a teleconference of the Commons finance committee (which was a bit of a gong show), where he stated that they went with hard-and-fast rules for compensation that could mean that there are gaps in coverage because that was the fastest way to get compensation out the door. (Of course, he didn’t spell out the capacity challenges, which just leaves him vulnerable to more baseless criticism).

[Maclean’s has updated their Q&A on symptoms and where to get testing]

As for the debate over producing the modelling, we’re seeing some provinces promising to roll theirs out – Doug Ford promising it’ll be today – but I’m having a hard time trying to see what it’s going to do at this point that will be of any real help. I am very convinced that we don’t have enough good and consistent data right now (and there are several experts who say we don’t have enough to do proper modelling just yet), and if people want to see how bad it can get, just look at Italy or Spain. I also don’t trust in the capacity of the majority of my fellow journalists to interpret any of this modelling data anywhere near correctly, given that they have proven to be proudly innumerate already during this pandemic (and a good many of them can’t handle basic civic literacy when they cover politics), so I am largely convinced that they are demanding the models for the sake of easy narratives, such as a screaming headline about worst-case scenario death counts. (Seriously – I have been in this industry long enough to know that’s exactly what’s coming). And I also fail to see how it would offer any kind of reassurance to the public, especially as they can see the death counts in other countries as well as they could a headline about worst-case scenario modelling in Canada – add to that the additional confusion of the disputes over methodology that would follow. Models aren’t data, and according to one data analyst I know, no one will read the technical quotes associated with any released modelling, and it will serve as disaster porn – and she’s right. I mean, certain outlets who shall not be named relied on dial-a-quote outrage from certain familiar sources to bolster their case for demanding the numbers be released, in the face other outlets getting opinions from specialists who are saying it’s too soon to have good data on this. But maybe I’m just pessimistic.

https://twitter.com/moebius_strip/status/1245825513072951297

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Roundup: A need to recall the House again

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The day began not with Justin Trudeau, but rather Andrew Scheer, who pre-emptively held a press conference to say that the emergency legislation passed last week wouldn’t cover the new wage subsidy, before he both took credit for things that I know for a fact he had nothing to do with, and demanded that the government cancel the increase in the federal carbon price (never mind that gasoline prices are at decade lows at the moment and the additional $10/tonne wouldn’t even be noticed) and that the CRA refund all GST and HST collected in the last six months.

When Trudeau held his own presser a short while later, he talked in large generalities about their three-point plan for the economy, with the CERB available as of Monday – and warned that people could get either the wage subsidy or the CERB, but not both – before saying that they were going to have to recall parliament again to pass yet more measures. (Reminder: I’ve been calling on Parliament to keep sitting as a skeleton crew this whole time). During the Q&A portion, Trudeau was again asked how long this was expected to last, to which Trudeau – and later his minsters – repeated that how long this lasts depends on everyone following directions and abiding by physical distancing (which apparently people are having difficulty with as Toronto is enacting even more measures to enforce it). At the ministerial press conference, Patty Hajdu stated that it looks like the federal stockpile for pandemics may not have been adequate in part because successive governments didn’t allocate enough funds to it – as said stockpile is now being distributed to provinces who are facing shortfalls in protective equipment while the government scrambles to source more of it both domestically and from abroad.

Bill Morneau and Mary Ng held their own presser with the details over the wage subsidy programme later in the afternoon, and said that it could be three to six weeks before this gets up and running (and it would have been nice if they could spell out the reasons why rather than just platitudes). The costs of this programme are also going to be very large, and you can bet that fuel calls for people to “restart the economy” sooner.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1245436895250632707

[If you’re following the mask debate, Dr. Theresa Tam outlined some clearer guidelines yesterday].

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Roundup: Supplies, spin, and rent

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was on the theme of medical supplies – signing agreements with three major medical suppliers in the country, MOUs signed with five other companies, and some 3000 other companies who have volunteered to help the government with those supplies in whatever way they can. Trudeau also noted that they have allocated an additional $2 billion for new personal protective equipment, largely by way of bulk-purchasing, and that more supplies would be arriving within days. As well, the government is tasking its next-generation manufacturing supercluster with scaling-up these kinds of producers to meet the domestic and global demand. Why this became a somewhat fraught issue is because there are places in the country where PPEs are being rationed, and Quebec stating that they were days away from running out – though Trudeau said that in some cases, it may be the medical providers who were rationing because they were trying to preserve supplies for an anticipated surge of cases.

[Here is another Q&A with infectious diseases specialist, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, and a discussion on the current debate about masks.]

Meanwhile, the National Post hears from a bunch of government insiders who claim that the attempt to get the power of taxation without parliamentary approval was about trying to hold leverage of the big banks who have been reluctant to loosen lending requirements, which is an explanation that makes absolutely no sense, and makes me again repeat that there appears to be a cadre of jackasses in Morneau’s office who have been responsible for many of this government’s missteps and woes, and we shouldn’t trust them.

And while I’m on the subject of jackasses, I spent much of yesterday on the Twitter Machine trying to remind people that rent is provincial jurisdiction, so constantly hounding the federal government is a waste of time. This was met with numerous people who insisted that the federal government could invoke the Emergencies Act to claim that power. The mind boggles. Why in the hell would the federal government invoke the tool of last resort to intrude into landlord/tenant legislation when the provinces are perfectly capable of doing so on their own. It makes zero sense. Add to that the people crying out that the federal government should immediately give money to renters, as though there were a mechanism to do so. It’s taking the CRA three weeks to retool their systems to deliver the CERB, which is a pretty breakneck speed to ensure that the system can do what’s being asked of it and hopefully not fail doing it (because their computers are not magic, and you can’t just type “give everyone $2000” and expect it to happen. It’s impossible). And no, there is no analogous funding arrangement to healthcare or post-secondary, as others were trying to claim – those are funding envelopes to provincial governments that come with agreements. They don’t go to individuals, and they are not spending in provincial jurisdiction over the objection of any province. The number of people who seem to think otherwise is astounding.

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Roundup: Previewing more subsidies and army intervention

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Monday’s presser from prime minister Justin Trudeau provided a few more details on the planned wage subsidy, and made it clear that this was no longer just going to target small and medium-sized businesses, but businesses of any size, including those in the charitable and non-profit sectors – provided they see a 30 percent drop in revenues as a result of the pandemic. It’s a very big outlay by government, which is predicated on the notion that once the pandemic is effectively over, it will shorten the time needed to get the economy back in gear. The real details on the programme won’t be unveiled until later today, with ministers Bill Morneau and Mary Ng, but the assurances to businesses not to let their staff go is being signalled very loudly – as was a warning that businesses shouldn’t try to game this subsidy because when the audits are done after this is over, there will be consequences for those who do (though Andrew Coyne makes a very good point about how that may go). Trudeau also noted that the Canadian Forces have been put on alert, and that 24,000 troops who are set to be deployed have already been sequestering themselves so as to avoid any potential infection. The real distinction worth pointing out here, however, is that it’s less that they’re planning on using troops to police quarantine zones, but rather to ensure that they are there to help deal with floods or fires that may happen during this particular period – given that it is the season for floods especially – when communities are at reduced capacity.

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1244708307337609217

Meanwhile, there does seem to be a sense of frustration and fear among medical providers across the country, particularly with the rationing of personal protective equipment as supply chains are affected. Some doctors are threatening to walk off the job if they can’t get the equipment they need, which is obviously something nobody wants.

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Roundup: Addressing the vulnerable

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For his Sunday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau – once again tieless – made a couple of minor announcements, all related to the vulnerable. He again spoke directly to kids, and said that they were investing more in Kids Help Phone to hire more counsellors because it can be stressful for many to be trapped at home; and then for seniors facing isolation, he spoke about new investments in the New Horizons for Seniors programme. During the Q&A, he also said that he was concerned about how Correctional Services was protecting inmates from COVID-19 and that more announcements were coming, and acknowledged that there were worst-case scenario preparations being made regarding turning hotels, convention centres and arenas into possible field hospitals. He also said that the personal protective equipment arriving from China would be tested to ensure that it met standards, after concerns that equipment sent to the Netherlands didn’t. Finally, he also stated that he would continue to self-isolate for the end of the two-weeks since his wife was symptomatic, while also stating that she has taken the children to the official residence at Harrington Lake now that she’s had a clean bill of health.

During the ministerial presser afterward, Ahmed Hussen spoke about other supports for the charitable sector that they were rolling out, while Dr. Theresa Tam said that the coming week would be a crucial period to see if the physical distancing measures were having an effect.

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Roundup: Taking on domestic flights

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For his Saturday presser, Trudeau went tie-less, because it’s the weekend. He mostly offered reassurances, but did say that formal orders were coming to keep symptomatic people from domestic flights and trains – which the federal government has authority over – but long-distance busses were provincial responsibility, so look there. He also mentioned – which was followed up by the Chief Public Health Officer minutes later in her own briefing – that there were signs that physical distancing was starting to bend the curve in BC, but as Dr. Theresa Tam reiterated, that means that now is the time to double down, not get lax.

Meanwhile, here’s economist Kevin Milligan reminding you of everything announced this week and how to access it.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243954419772715008

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243957017426817024

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243959663126708224

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243961465310023680

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243963188380454912

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