Tag Archives: Border

Roundup: Ford blames Trudeau for his failures (again)

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You’re seeing a lot of blame being placed at the federal government for the rising crime rates, and a tonne of disinformation about the so-called “catch and release” bail system, which is not catch-and-release, and in some cases is pure distraction. Case in point was around the murder of a teenager at a Toronto subway station. Doug Ford is making noises blaming the federal government for this incident, demanding immediate changes to the bail system—changes that would no doubt be unconstitutional, since the changes they have agreed to with provincial counterparts are very narrowly targeted.

But the real problem is in the provinces. It’s provinces under-resourcing courts, and mostly underfunding social programmes that would keep these kinds of people out of the criminal justice system. In this particular case, the accused has a long history of interactions with the justice system because he has been failed at every turn, and was in dire need of rehabilitation and mental health supports. And you know whose responsibility that is? The province. Ford has been under-funding the system for years, most especially healthcare, which he deliberately underfunds and then cries poor in demanding more federal money, with no strings attached (which he then puts on the province’s bottom line to reduce his deficit, like he did with pandemic spending). Locking these people up in jail doesn’t solve the problem, and only makes it worse in the long-run, and yes, Ford’s predecessors are also guilty of underfunding the system (though I don’t seem to recall them underspending their healthcare budget—merely cutting it to the bone in the name of “efficiencies.”)

The problems we’re seeing are broader, more systemic societal problems, and removing the presumption of innocence and the right to bail doesn’t change that. In fact, it just creates more problems, and political leaders need to start recognising this fact rather than just blaming the federal government for codifying a number of Supreme Court of Canada decisions.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces destroyed 14 out of 17 Iranian-made drones launched over Ukraine, mostly around Odessa. Over in Bakhmut, Ukrainian forces are mocking the Russian claims they captured the city, saying that the Russians raised their flag over “some kind of toilet.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy will be visiting Warsaw this week to meet with leaders, as well as Ukrainians taking shelter in that country.

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Roundup: The thing about the interim ethics commissioner

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The issue with the appointment of Dominic LeBlanc’s sister-in-law as the interim ethics commissioner has been nearly inexplicable, until you actually look at the position itself. The optics are absolutely bad, and a very real problem because of the whole issue around perceived conflicts of interest. The problem, however, is that they may not have had much choice in the matter given how the role is structured legislatively. While LeBlanc had no role in the decision, the PMO told CBC that the Privy Council Office—meaning the non-partisan civil service—is responsible for the decision, which no member of the government has stated to date, and you think they would have, if they could communicate their way out of a wet paper bag.

The legislated criteria for who can be the ethics commissioner is very restrictive—you need to be either a former judge, the formal head of a quasi-judicial administrative tribunal, or the former Senate Ethics Officer. Unspoken qualification is that you would also have to be bilingual, which limits your field even further, particularly for former judges. And while the salary was commensurate of that of a federally-appointed judge, the posting for the new commissioner cuts that by a third to bring it in line with other officers of parliament, which is going to make it all the more unattractive, particularly to former judges who are going to take one look at it and decide that they don’t need the aggravation for the amount of money they’re being offered.

There’s a reason why Mary Dawson’s term needed to be extended two or three times while they looked for a replacement. There’s a reason why they pretty much had no choice but to go with Mario Dion when he applied, because there was nobody else (and Dion was not the best choice on offer). And when Dion resigned the post suddenly (two years early) for health reasons, they were pretty much screwed because they couldn’t extend him until a replacement could be found. The solution was the most senior person in the office—said sister-in-law of Dominic LeBlanc—who has been there for ten years. And there is already an ethics screen in place regarding LeBlanc, to keep her out of any conflicts. It’s likely that PCO’s determination was that this was the best of a bad situation, but it’s not good. The interim commissioner doesn’t qualify to become the permanent commissioner, so this situation is temporary. But ultimately, this is a failing of the legislation, because MPs were trying to play tough when they brought it in, and wound up shooting themselves in the foot over it. And now there is an untenable situation because they boxed themselves in. Good job, guys. Your posturing has really paid off.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces report that the Russian advance on the outskirts of Bakhmut has been “halted—or nearly halted.” President Volodymyr Zelenskyy marked the one-year anniversary of the liberation of Bucha, and the discovery of the horrors left in the Russians’ wake, making another call for justice for war crimes.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1641810694852026369

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Roundup: The Budget 2023 highlight reel

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And with that, Budget 2023 is now out in the wild. It’s much more pessimistic than the fall economic update was, reflecting the softening global economy—even before the current spate of bank problems happening in the US and Europe. And because GDP growth is projected to be virtually non-existent next year, while spending is increasing, it does mean the debt-to-GDP ratio is going to climb a tiny bit higher than projected earlier, causing no end of grief to a certain class of economic watcher.

The common refrain I heard from the television panellists in reaction was that the budget was clearly defined by its co-authors—Jagmeet Singh, and Joe Biden—each who had their demands, which wound up in the document. In terms of what’s in the budget, here’s an overview, while the highlights include:

  • Rebranding the added GST credit as a one-time “grocery rebate,” while the rental supports are ending because of low uptake.
  • Dental care is planning to be turned into a full insurance programme for the uninsured, administered through Health Canada rather than the CRA.
  • There is money to deal with countering foreign interference, money laundering, and other financial crimes.
  • There are a tonne of subsidies and tax credits geared toward the green economy, with more rewards for companies with better labour practices.
  • The wealthiest Canadians are facing an Alternative Minimum Tax increase.
  • The share buyback tax is in the budget.
  • The excise tax on alcohol is going to cap at a lower rate after a massive outcry (never mind it was adding less than 1¢ to a can of beer).
  • There is more money for consultations on Indigenous resource sharing.
  • They are promising a federal spending review and cutting back on consultants and travel (but we’ll see if that sticks).
  • More money to keep the Phoenix pay system stable while they work on a replacement.
  • There will be a $2.4 billion loan for Ukraine, on top of another $200 million for military equipment (most of which has been announced).
  • Here are sixteen points that are prominent, and that are a little more hidden in the text.

Surprising absolutely nobody, Jagmeet Singh says he’ll support the budget, while Pierre Poilievre put on a big song and dance in the Foyer before Question Period saying that unless the government met his demands, he wouldn’t support it—not that he would support it anyway, so it was the dumbest, hollowest threat imaginable. Honestly. Meanwhile, here is some reaction from business leaders to the document.

https://twitter.com/Dennismolin11/status/1640822353461489664

Ukraine Dispatch:

In spite of the relentless bombardment of Bakhmut and Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces say the Russians have made no advancement on either position (even if the Russians insist they are). The first of the British Challenger 2 tanks have begun arriving on Ukrainian soil, as have Leopard 2 tanks from Germany, while France is pledging more ammunition. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited the Sumy region, which was retaken from Russian forces in early April of last year.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1640785827210067968

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1640759675699298316

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Roundup: Another Auditor General Day goes by largely unnoticed

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Yesterday was Auditor General day, not that you really heard much about it. No questions were raised about her reports in Question Period, and none of it came up on either of the politics shows, which is not good. We’ve already ceded so much of Parliament’s ability to hold the government to account to Officers of Parliament like the Auditor General, but whereas once upon a time, the biannual Auditor General Days were all anyone could talk about because media in Ottawa worshipped at the feet of said Auditors General, and who took their word as gospel, well, there has been almost none of that now. (And frankly, the fact that we are now listening to every single utterance of the Parliamentary Budget Officer and not the Auditor General is another problem).  In fact, most outlets ran Canadian Press wire copy instead of doing their own reporting from the reports, and those outlets that did their own stories only focused on a one or two of the reports and not all four, which again, is a warning sign about the state of our media.

Nevertheless, her reports concluded that:

  • The slow rollout of high-speed internet to rural and First Nations communities in particular is creating an economic divide.
  • The government can’t track the outcomes of their “feminist foreign policy” because they’re not tracking if aid dollars are actually meeting goals.
  • Two-thirds of people with disabilities found barriers to accessing federally-regulated planes and passenger trains.
  • The Centre Block renovations are on budget so far, but it’s taking far too long to make any decisions related to the work.

So really, there’s some pretty heavy stuff in there that the government should be held to account for, most especially the part around foreign aid funding that they like to show up at an announcement for and pat themselves on the back later, but are neglecting tracking the actual work. That’s a problem with this government, and we should be holding their feet to the fire over it, but we’re just not, and that’s a problem for our democracy.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces closed the town of Avdiivka to civilians in the wake of increasing attacks as Russian forces shift their attention there and away from their flagging assault on Bakhmut. Ukrainian forces also shot down a dozen Russian drones headed for Kyiv, destroying all of them. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy visited troops in the south-eastern part of the country, where it’s likely part of the spring counter-offensive will take place. Zelenskyy later met with the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, and said that Russians were holding the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant hostage.

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QP: Harvesting clips demanding no new taxes

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In between Biden’s visit and tomorrow’s budget, the prime minister was present for a somewhat rare Monday appearance, not not every other leader was. Pierre Poilievre led of in French, and he decried a supposed “war on work” that punishes people with taxes, which is a risible talking point. Justin Trudeau had a script in front of him as he noted how many hundreds of thousand of children they lifted out of poverty thanks to the Child Benefit, plus their child care and dental care programmes that the Conservatives voted against. Poilievre repeated it in English, and got largely the same response from Trudeau, this time without script, and with added mentions of clean energy jobs and the Canada Worker Benefit. Poilievre insisted that the  government was constantly raising taxes—factually wrong—and demanded no new taxes in the new budget. Trudeau pointed out they lowered small business taxes and created more supports for workers and families that delivered growth, taking a shot at trickle down economics. Poilievre insisted that Trudeau was the only one believing in trickle down as he scoops up all the money, insisted that he was right about deficits causing inflation (he’s not), and again demanded no new taxes. Trudeau insisted that they were “laser-focused” on growing the economy for Canadians. Poilievre segued this to doubling housing prices and demanded “serious penalties” in the budget for “gatekeepers,” to which Trudeau recited housing measures the government was taking.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he demanded a public inquiry for allegations of foreign interference. Trudeau, with a script, read that they have tasked the “unimpeachable” David Johnston with determining next steps while NSICOP and NSIRA conducted their own investigations. Therrien then took swipes at Jean Chrétien’s comments that he wasn’t concerned about the problem, and Trudeau insisted that this was the Bloc trying to make partisan attacks over a serious issue.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he cited a CBC article that says that millennials are at higher rates of insolvency and demanded measures to help youth in the budget. Trudeau, again with a script, listed measures they are taking for housing. Singh switched to French to ask if the government was putting a “grocery rebate” in the budget as reported, and Trudeau told him to wait for tomorrow like everyone else.

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Roundup: Strange Five Eyes anxieties

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Every now and again, a weird little subplot turns up in Canadian politics centred around anxiety about our place in the Five Eyes intelligence-sharing alliance. Lately, this has been heightened because of the AUKUS agreement, which is mostly about Australia buying American nuclear submarines, and that’s the reason why Canada wasn’t invited to join. We as a country have not been having the necessary dialogue around replacing our submarine fleet (which we absolutely should be), so us joining AUKUS would be particularly ill-timed.

Nevertheless, this bit of anxiety crept up again over the weekend, whereby an American intelligence official needed to go on television in Canada to assure us that no, the leaks from national security personnel to media over allegations of foreign interference are not going to jeopardise our Five Eyes membership. But cripes, people—we have had far worse leaks in recent memory, be it Jeffrey Delisle, who was sending information to the Russians, or the allegations surrounding senior RMCP intelligence official Cameron Ortis (who is still awaiting trial). Are these leaks to the media damaging? Yes, of course, particularly because they seem very much to have a partisan focus to them. Is it going to get us kicked out of the Five Eyes? Hardly.

Ukraine Dispatch:

As Russian forces pound the town of Avdiivka, shifting away from Bakhmut, Ukrainian leadership is calling for an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council after Russia said it would be transferring tactical nuclear weapons to Belarus.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1639971295113670656

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Roundup: Evading a direct question with fiery rhetoric

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Yesterday’s press conference with the prime minister and US president was the first opportunity to ask Justin Trudeau about the allegations made against MP Han Dong, and whether he believed them. Trudeau said that he accepts that Dong left caucus to fight the allegations, prompted people to watch Dong’s speech in the House of Commons, and then went on a tear about how any foreign interference was unnecessary, and it was why the G7 meeting at Charlevoix set up the Rapid Response Mechanism to deal with it in elections. And it sounded like the kind of answer he should have been giving three weeks ago when he was simply flailing, until you stopped to realise that he didn’t actually answer the question, but sidestepped it with the rhetoric. So that’s a choice.

Meanwhile, here is an interesting deep dive thread into what the Globe and Mail published on Thursday night, and the subtle shade they were throwing at Global about the decision not to print allegations they could not confirm without seeing the transcript of the alleged call or listen to audio. I still think it’s interesting that this seems to confirm that the same source appears to be shopping leaks to both outlets.

Stephanie Carvin answers some questions about the kinds of warrants that could be in play as it appears that CSIS was monitoring the calls of the Chinese consulate.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1639255538021339136

Former national security analyst Dennis Molinaro gives a good gut-check about the kinds of intelligence we’re dealing with, and why none of it can be taken as conclusive, particularly as much of it is time and context specific, which may be why it wasn’t acted upon at the time.

https://twitter.com/dennismolin11/status/1639402944708632576

And finally, while some are hoping that a public inquiry might stop the leaks, I wouldn’t be so sure. The leaks are intended to cause damage, but to the government in particular, and that’s partly why they are being shopped to the journalists that they are. That they are causing damage to the intelligence service and institutions seems to be considered collateral damage, particularly if the op-ed from last week is indicative of a narcissistic personality who thinks they know better.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian forces attacked stretches along the northern and southern fronts in the Donbas region, as their assault on Bakhmut has flagged. Ukrainian forces are using three Soviet-era helicopters to pummel Russian forces on the front lines from afar. Slovakia has delivered the first four of 13 MiG-29 fighters to Ukraine. The UN’s human rights monitors have seen cases of abuses and killing of prisoners of war on both sides of the conflict (though disproportionately more on the Russian side).

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1639257619071213568

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Roundup: No actionable intelligence?

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The Globe and Mail advanced the allegations surrounding MP Han Dong last night, apparently having received the same intelligence that Global did, and asked the PMO about it two-and-a-half weeks ago. Their sources say that PMO asked for a transcript of the conversation Dong allegedly had with the Chinese consulate, and deemed there to not be enough actionable in there. It does raise further questions about the leakers, and if they are leaking to both Global and the Globe and Mail, or if their sources remain separate.

https://twitter.com/JessMarinDavis/status/1638932464839147526

Nevertheless, both outlets’ reporting lacks crucial nuance or expert checking with former intelligence officials that can provide both context or a gut check. And the fact that a transcript was provided doesn’t entirely tell us if this conversation was in English or Mandarin, and if it was in translation that could lose context or proper nuance in the language, which are all important around how we are to evaluate the allegations. And irresponsible reporting is taking us into witch-hunt territory, which is going to get ugly really fast.

https://twitter.com/chercywong/status/1638869879351808000

Meanwhile, the House of Commons voted for a motion to launch a public inquiry immediately, but it’s non-binding, and the government is waiting on recommendations from David Johnston. It was noted that Dong voted for the motion, while Liberal MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith abstained, later explaining over Twitter that he supports an inquiry but wants to wait for Johnston’s recommendations.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces are gearing up for their spring counter-offensive as Russian forces are flagging in their assault on Bakhmut, but president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is warning European allies that unless they step up weapons shipments, the war could drag on for years. Zelenskyy visited the region around Kherson, and vowed to repair the damaged Russia had caused. Here are stories of Ukrainian fighters wounded in the fighting in Bakhmut, as they repelled Russian attacks. Seventeen children previously deported to Russia have been returned to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1638932049380745217

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Roundup: Forcing a confrontation for point-scoring alone

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The whole sorry affair over summoning Katie Telford to testify at committee is coming to a head today with the vote on the Conservatives’ Supply Day motion to bypass PROC and have her testify at the Ethics Committee (where they hold the chair). And in the meantime, the Liberals are deciding if they want to make this a confidence vote, while the NDP are deciding if they are going to go along with the Conservatives on this, or back the Liberals—particularly if this does become a confidence measure.

It’s all really stupid. While I have a longer piece on the underlying parliamentary implications around forcing staffers to testify at committee coming out later today, we can’t lose sight of why this is happening. The Conservatives knew the government would balk at forcing a staffer to testify, so they would use the reluctance to push the line that they are hiding something, and if they’re fighting this hard “it must be really bad.” Which is bad faith bullshit, but that’s the name of their game, and true to form, the Liberals walked right into it, because they flailed over the leaks in the media, and can’t communicate their way out of a wet paper bag. And the Conservatives get to jam the NDP in the process, and try to force a wedge between them and the government. None of this is about foreign interference or taking the issue seriously. This is entirely about the Conservatives smelling blood in the water and going on the attack so they can score as many points as possible, because nobody in this parliament is serious or a grown-up. This is all a gods damned game to them, and it’s destroying our Parliament in the process.

Do I think the Liberals will force a confidence vote? No, because as much as the principle of ministerial responsibility is of importance, they’re not going to risk bringing down the government over it—particularly to have an election over allegations of interference in elections without any chance to ensure there are proper safeguards before that election happens. Then again, miscalculations have happened in minority parliaments before, and sometimes games of chicken go wrong. But really, this is yet another instance of play stupid games, win stupid prizes. And this really is the stupidest game.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces are warning that the town of Avdiivka could become a “second Bakhmut,” as they have held out against assault for eight months while avoiding being encircled, but Russians are trying to cut off their supply lines. Meanwhile, Ukraine sort of claimed responsibility for destroying a shipment of cruise missiles travelling by train through occupied Crimea. Elsewhere, here is a look at the de-mining work that needs to take place in places freed from occupation before they can complete critical infrastructure repairs.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1637881139355328523

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1637750630566486016

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Roundup: Commonwealth Day reminders

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Yesterday was Commonwealth Day, and also the ten-year anniversary of the Commonwealth Charter, which was supposed to be a project to spearhead the adoption of more common human rights legislation that would include better inclusion of LGBTQ+ rights in those Commonwealth countries where they are still an issue. In those ten years, that seems to have fallen off the radar, and I have barely heard any mention of that Charter at all, until when the anniversary was mentioned yesterday.

With anything related to the Commonwealth, we were guaranteed a bunch of bad media takes, and lo, for their inaugural episode, CTV News Channel’s new debate show had one of their topics as to whether Canada should stay in the Commonwealth or abandon the monarchy, which is a dumb false dichotomy because the vast majority of Commonwealth countries are not monarchies. Only fifteen member countries are Realms, meaning that we share Charles III as our monarch in a natural capacity (we each have separate Crowns), and newer members of the Commonwealth are not former British colonies, but have requested membership because they see value in the institution. Even if we did abandon the monarchy (which isn’t going to happen because it would mean rewriting our entire constitution and good luck trying to make that happen), we would still probably retain membership in the Commonwealth because of the relationships forged there, and it can be good forum for getting things done with countries.

Meanwhile, I’m going to re-up this interview I did with MP Alexandra Mendès, who is the chair of the Canadian Commonwealth Parliamentary Association, about the work these associations do and how Canada helps to train the legislatures and parliaments of smaller Commonwealth countries.

Ukraine Dispatch:

The battle near Bakhmut continues to rage, while the International Criminal Court is expected to seek the arrest of Russian officials responsible for the policy of forcibly deporting children from Ukraine, as well as their continued targeting of civilian infrastructure.

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