QP: The “sword” hanging over the PBO

All of the leaders were present today, as is customary for a Wednesday, even if Wednesdays are no longer the pronto-PMQs of Trudeau’s era. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and demanded to know the size of the deficit. Prime minister Mark Carney responded that the budget will be on November 4th, and it would have the biggest investment in the country’s future. Poilievre asked the same in English, and got much the same response. Poilievre returns to French to lament that we still don’t have an answer on the deficit, which creates uncertainty for business, and demanded to know the number. Carney thanked him for the compliment about being a fiscal expert, and said that the trade war left uncertainty that made sure they have to do what they can control. Poilievre repeated the same in English, and this time, Carney boasted that interest rates were lower in Canada than the U.S. Poilievre dismissed this as saying that was because the economy was collapsing, and then claimed that a liberal members of the finance committee threatened the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s job (while someone chirped that didn’t happen). Carney said that he just the PBO, and that he didn’t recognise the characterisation. Poilievre said that the post was temporary in order to hold a sword over his head, and then demanded he be made permanent and demanded a deficit figure. Carney said that if they wanted him to be permanent, he would be open to consulting on that in the new spirit of collaboration.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried that the government was going to table something on the use of the Notwithstanding Clause, and demanded it be allowed to be used by provinces, even in a “preventative” measure. Carney said that the government’s job is to uphold the Charter and it was up to the Supreme Court to determine what is and is not legal. Blanchet claimed that putting limits on use of the Clauses was denigrating the Memory of a Pierre Trudeau, and Carney dismissed this, saying this was up to the Supreme Court to rule on.  Blanchet accused the government of hiding behind the Court, and attacking Quebec’s state secularism, to which Carney reminded him that this is the legislative branch, not the judiciary. 

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Roundup: Going to war over the EV mandate

Pierre Poilievre called a press conference yesterday in rural Saskatchewan to declare that he’s going to war with the government over the EV mandate, during which he said that he’s going to call it a “Carney tax” (for the nonsense reason that manufacturers that don’t meet their targets can face penalties), and he lied entirely about what the mandate does, right up to claiming that this is about killing rural and small-town life in Canada. It’s not only unhinged, but entirely indicative of the fact that Poilievre hasn’t learned a single gods damned lesson about why he lost the last election. These kinds of stunts for the sake of the attention economy aren’t exactly showing him to be credible about, well, anything.

He also once again demanded that the prime minister cancel the loan to BC Ferries for the ships they plan to get from China, because of the canola tariffs, which again, is not how this works. The prime minister can’t tell the Infrastructure Bank what they can and can’t do, because it was set up to ensure that it wasn’t ministers directing their investments. That’s the whole point of making it an arm’s-length agency. (And also, once again, no Canadian shipyards bid on this contract).

But Poilievre also decided to blame Carney for China’s bullying tactics, saying that they smell weakness. Erm, China bullies regardless. That’s why we shouldn’t be giving into their pressure tactics, because it’ll embolden them to do more again, and to do other things, like kidnapping more Canadians, and engaging in hostage diplomacy. Again, did Poilievre pay absolutely no attention for the past decade? Or is this yet more elaborate performance art for the sake of getting clicks on his social media, in the hopes that those clicks turn into gullible people opening up their wallets to him. The answer, of course, is the latter.

Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-08-14T14:08:08.062Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian forces say that they have stabilised their eastern front after that brief breakthrough by Russians earlier in the week. The latest prisoner swap with Russia returned 84 Ukrainians, many of them civilians.

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Roundup: A disinformation fest in the English debate

Day twenty-six, and the second day of debates. Both Mark Carney and Jagmeet Singh had photo ops in Montreal before the debate, while Pierre Poilievre stayed quiet. And it looks like no one is downing tools today, in spite of it being a statutory holiday—Carney will be in Niagara Falls, followed by Colborne and Brantford. I didn’t get Poilievre’s itinerary, while Singh starts the day in Yamachiche, Quebec, and then ends the day in Burnaby, BC.

In other campaign news, the Conservatives had other incumbents release the second part of their Arctic defence policy, and it appears that they didn’t consult with any Northerners or Inuit for this part either.

And then the English debate, or as it should more properly be called, a disinformation fest. The sheer volume of utter horseshit uttered was absolutely astonishing, and yet nobody was challenged or called out on hardly any of it. Steve Paikin as moderator had a fairly light tough for much of it, and allowed a lot of talking over one another, but did keep things moving at a fairly good clip in order to have a couple of rapid-fire rounds at the end, though near the end, there was a “Leader’s Choice” segment where each leader could ask a question of one another, and everyone chose Carney to attack (quelle surprise), while Carney picked Poilievre, and returned to the security clearance issue (which Poilievre yet again lied about). I also note that at the top of each thematic section, Paikin asked a different question of each of the leaders, so they weren’t answering the same and made it hard to compare them.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3ln2atae4lk2y

Poilievre is again lying about "printing money" and inflation. Carney: "I know you want to run against Justin Trudeau. Justin Trudeau is not here." #debate

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-18T00:41:27.247Z

Poilievre lying about being "gagged" if he gets his security clearance. He would merely need to be responsible in his commentary, which he refuses to do. #debate

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-18T00:46:11.096Z

As for the leaders themselves, Carney again kept his cool, even when constantly being talked over, and just kept trying to make his point with “If I may,” before they shut up. I also noted that he would keep saying how many points he had for responses before listing those points, but he also did have the occasional misspeak (for example referring to TMX as “Keystone.”) Poilievre pretty much spent the whole exercise lying about absolutely everything, shamelessly, and was not challenged on about 99 percent of it, which doesn’t help the average viewer. Singh was a little less hyper than last night, and we avoided any tantrums tonight, because the moderator did give him the chance to talk about healthcare, but also challenged him on it about the jurisdictional issue, which Singh, of course, talked around rather than answering. And as for Blanchet, he kept trying to make a pitch for a minority parliament where he can exert influence. He also demanded that whoever becomes prime minister call the other leaders to meet one week after the election in order to discuss the various crises we’re facing. (Here are the recaps from The Canadian Press, CBC, National Post, and the Star, and six takeaways from the debate).

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3ln2afzfgac22

Poilievre's dodge on Indigenous incarceration was astounding. Just absolutely amazing that he could get away with that. #debate

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-17T23:42:39.614Z

Paikin actually corners Singh on how he would deal with provinces who don't want to spend his healthcare dollars the way he wants. Singh just talks around it, doesn't actually say how he would force the provinces. #debate

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-18T00:19:58.773Z

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3ln2bndu4ds2h

The other notable part of the evening was that the post-debate scrums were cancelled, because of an ostensible safety issue after Rebel media started trying to accost other journalists, including trying to interrupt CBC’s broadcast before the debate. The fact that the Debate Commission’s chair didn’t even realise that Rebel and Ezra Levant had registered as third party advertisers with Elections Canada should have meant an automatic disqualification, but he said he was so afraid of losing another lawsuit meant he just caved to their demands, which is yet again another sign of democracy being under assault in this country.

Debates Commission has cancelled the post-debate scrums after this English leaders debate. This cancellation follows an altercation prior to the debate involving Rebel News and other journalists. #elxn45

davidakin (@davidakin.bsky.social) 2025-04-18T00:23:05.379Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles struck Kharkiv, killing one and injuring at least 57, as president Zelenskyy notes that Russia has shifted from targeting energy facilities to civilian targets. Russians on the front lines appear to be shifting to using mass-assault tactics as they try to advance. Ukraine says they have signed a memorandum as a first step toward a mineral deal with the US, which would involve setting up an investment fund for Ukraine’s reconstruction.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1913102312286900366

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Roundup: Letting a hockey game take precedence

Day twenty-four, and the announcements didn’t really matter because the only thing anyone was concerned about was the fact that tonight’s French debate was at the same time as a Montreal Canadiens hockey game, and the Bloc and NDP demanded the debate be rescheduled (but when exactly, given that it’s Easter weekend and that’s when the advance polls are open). So, the organizers and the networks agreed to change the time to 6 from 8, which means that it’ll be on at 3 for anyone out in BC. Yeah, that’s going to get viewership by francophones in the west. We are such a parochial country sometimes.

Mark Carney was in Saint-Eustache, Quebec, and announced a plan to provide more assistance for job training or retraining in certain priority areas, with some additional promises for those whose jobs are affected by the tariffs. Carney will have a photo op in Montreal around noon before the debate, now two hours earlier.

Pierre Poilievre was in Montreal, and he announced plans to crack down on people who scam seniors, which means forcing phone companies and banks to have mandatory “scam detection systems,” which sounds a bit like a magic wand given that the field is constantly changing to keep one step ahead. I also fail to see what tougher penalties will do given that the vast majority of these scams operate overseas. Poilievre will hold a press conference this morning, in advance of the debate.

Do we need to have a conversation about why those prices are up? -Beef continues to rise because drought has meant culling herds, which raises prices-Eggs are up because we have bird flu outbreaks, albeit not as bad as the US-That fruit figure is mostly oranges, because the FL crop was devastated

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-15T19:02:03.936Z

Are the Conservatives planning to do anything about climate change that has meant more droughts on the prairies? Nope. Part of what devastated the Floria orange crop were hurricanes, which are exacerbated by climate change. Again, do they want to do anything about that? Nope.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-15T19:02:03.937Z

Now, have the Liberals pointed any of this out? Of course not. They're too busy patting themselves on the back for killing the consumer carbon levy, and pretending that it was imposed by some mysterious force. We have real issues to discuss in this election, but they're not being discussed.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-15T19:02:03.938Z

Jagmeet Singh was also in Montreal, where he promised to restore the changes to the capital gains inclusion rate, under the rubric of making the ultra-wealthy pay the price, and promising to use these revenues to fund all of his promises (good luck with that magical money tree), but didn’t actually spell out the actual issue of tax arbitrage and fairness for all different types of capital gains to be taxed at the same rate. Singh’s only engagement today is the debate.

In other campaign news, Poilievre is now saying there’s no timeline for defunding CBC after previously saying he wants to do so as soon as possible. Carney says that he wants the F-35 review to go swiftly, but DND is still establishing the parameters of said exercise. And the White House confirmed that annexation talk is still on the president’s mind.

This election is *really* testing my limit.

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-04-15T21:35:48.964Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones hit homes on Odesa overnight, injuring at least three. This after NATO secretary general Mark Rutte was in Odesa to reaffirm “unwavering” support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, life in Sumy is carrying on after Sunday’s deadly attacks.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1912116063560495426

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Roundup: Promising to invoke the Notwithstanding Clause

Day twenty-three, and the campaigns are starting to converge around Montreal as debate prep starts to take over, but they are still getting platform planks announced in the meantime. Mark Carney was in Dorval, Quebec, to announce his plan to overhaul defence procurement, including re-promising a centralized agency, to focus on Canadian defence industries and those of non-US allies, along with some other pledges around giving members of the armed forces another raise, and working to reform recruitment processes to speed up intake. Carney also offered an apology for the bad button scandal, and said that the culprits have been “reassigned” on the campaign, which doesn’t exactly make it sound like they have suffered much in the way of consequences. Carney will be in Saint-Eustache for his morning announcement before returning to debate prep.

Pierre Poilievre was in Montreal, and he repeated a two-year-old promise to invoke the Notwithstanding Clause to ensure that multiple murders get consecutive sentences instead of concurrent, in defiance of the Supreme Court of Canada, but totally swears he wouldn’t invoke it for anything else. Really! It’s all so stupid because a) no mass murders have ever been given parole; b) this would only apply to future mass murders, not those currently serving life sentences, and it’s not going to act as a deterrent; and c) the Notwithstanding Clause needs to be renewed every five years, so this is really nothing more than an exercise in optics so that he looks tough. Poilievre will again hold his announcement today in Montreal before returning to debate prep.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lmrn7ukzyk2m

Jagmeet Singh was in Toronto, where he made a whole bunch of promises around healthcare that no federal government could possibly deliver on, because it’s provincial jurisdiction, but hey, he plans to “incentivize provinces.” What in the names of Apollo and Asklepios do you think that federal governments have been trying to do for four decades? How is it possible for him to be that naïve? Singh then headed to Montreal for his debate prep, and he will hold his own announcement there this morning.

In other campaign news, Carney’s campaign says that he has formally renounced his UK and Irish citizenships, and that he does indeed pay his taxes in Canada (because the Conservatives were trying to make more hay over this). LGBTQ+ groups around the country are hoping to hear more from the parties about addressing their issues (though some of them are provincial I must point out). The Debates Commission is defending the decision to invite the Greens even though they no longer meet the criteria of running candidates in at least 90 percent of ridings (which they apparently planned to, but not enough of them registered with Elections Canada).

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia made a second attack on Sumy on Monday, btu this one struck the outskirts of the city and no one was injured. There was also an overnight attack on Zaporizhzhia which ignited a petrol station. The Ukrainian air force said that Russia used new types of missiles and cluster bombs on their attack on Sumy on Sunday, which Russia is falsely claiming was targeting a military gathering, which everyone knows is false (except maybe Trump).

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Roundup: Being precious about participating in the gong show

Fewer things make me roll my eyes harder the NDP being precious about decorum or the dysfunction within the House of Commons, and it is no exception when Charlie Angus despairs about the gong show happening day-in and day-out. As much as they like to pretend that they are the “adults in the room”—and Peter Julian likes to go on television to say that whenever he’s invited on—but adults in the room don’t heckle constantly (and both Julian and Angus are amongst the very worst—remember the pledge that they were never going to heckle in 2011?), nor do they engage in constant petty insults in order to make themselves look tougher than they are, but that’s what the NDP does day-in and day-out.

The thrust of the piece linked above, however, remains the current filibustered state of the Commons (for which the writer does point out the problems with the motion without going as far as actually calling what it is—banana republic tactics that will have severe consequences in the future if a precedent is allowed to develop), and that if anything is going to get things back on track, it’s going to have to be the NDP who comes to some kind of agreement with the government in order to break the logjam so that important legislation can start moving again. What the piece doesn’t go into is how this has been an ongoing problem in the past two parliaments, since the Liberals lost their majority in 2019. That was when the Conservatives began a campaign of procedural warfare that the Bloc and NDP gleefully participated in because they would do anything to embarrass the government—right up until the end of the sitting, every December and June, and suddenly realize they had bills they wanted to pass, so they started to cooperate. The Supply-and-Confidence agreement mellowed this out a little, but only slightly, as committees continued to get worse, and the NDP were hit-and-miss on whether they wanted to make things work or not.

I am somewhat ruefully reminded of the litany of books and articles that used to constantly come out to praise minority parliaments, and how great they were because they would force parties to work together to get things done for Canadians. That hasn’t been the case for a long time now, and given that the NDP proved themselves to be bad faith actors in how they ended the supply-and-confidence agreement, it’s going to be a long time before they are awarded any trust again, at least not until they have a new leader who can earn it back. But if they do want to make the remainder of this parliament work, they have a lot to answer for, and it would be great if more people could call them on their bullshit.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian forces say that Russians are using North Korean troops in significant numbers as they conduct assaults in the occupied regions of Kursk. Ukrainian drones conducted an overnight attack Friday and hit a crucial Russian oil facility in the Oryol region, and Ukrainian special forces destroyed a Russian train carrying 40 cars of fuel to Russian troops in the Zaporizhzhia region.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1868270966528201142

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Roundup: Why Statute of Westminster Day matters

Yesterday was Statute of Westminster Day, which most people don’t have a clue about in spite of it showing up on their calendars. It’s a hugely important day in Canadian history because it was a turning point in our sovereignty as it relates to our relationship with the UK—the creation of the Canadian Crown as a separate and distinct entity from the UK Crown. Canada and several other realms (Australia, New Zealand, Ireland, Newfoundland, and South Africa) were all granted Separate Crowns because they decided that the Crown was indeed divisible (and in Canada, further divisible among the provinces), and that meant things like being able to control our own foreign policy.

Today is Statute of Westminster Day, which is the birthday of the Canadian Crown as a separate entity from the UK Crown. It’s an incredibly important day for Canadian sovereignty, but mostly gets passed over, or under-taught in schools. #MapleCrown

Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-12-11T15:00:49.015Z

The problem, of course, is that we’re not taught this. We may be taught that that the Statute gave us more control over our foreign affairs (at least, I was in my social studies classes in Alberta), but it was couched more in terms of the aftermath of the First World War—the Canadian Crown was entirely absent from that discussion. And if you look at Parliamentary accounts on Twitter, for example, not one of them mentioned the Crown as the reason why we gained that autonomy and independence. It’s the whole gods damned reason why, and we don’t celebrate that at all. It’s a real problem as to why we don’t have a grasp of basic civics in this country, and something we need to rectify.

https://twitter.com/OurCommons/status/1866908079763120189

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian troops overran or captured several Ukrainian positions near the strategic city of Pokrovsk. Ukrainians struck a Russian airfield near the Azov Sea with US-made missiles, and a Ukrainian drone hit police barracks in Chechnya.

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QP: Fantasizing about a “collapsing” economy

Wednesday, the final proto-PMQ of the year, and the prime minister was indeed present and ready to respond to all questions put to him, while his deputy was elsewhere. All of the other leaders were also present today, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and again cited the Globe and Mail story about the supposed tensions between Freeland and Trudeau over the size of the deficit, and demanded to know why he pushed her to break her promise on capping it. Justin Trudeau said that Poilievre was dramatizing things to distract from his voting against programmes that help people, and that he muzzles his MPs to prevent them from speaking out for their communities, or get his security clearance. Poilievre again demanded to know why Trudeau forced his finance minister to break her promise and Trudeau responded with a list of things Poilievre voted against. Poilievre switched to English and repeated his first question on the Globe story, and Trudeau once again called these little “dramas” a distraction from his record of voting against supports for Canadians or refusing to get his security clearance. Poilievre accused a Trudeau of bullying Freeland, said that he is too weak to control his own caucus, and then Poilievre proclaimed that he leads by inspiration and that Trudeau leads by intimidation. Trudeau said that Poilievre likes to claim things are broken because he keeps breaking them. Poilievre  mocked this, and then claimed that Freeland was going to be humiliated by reading a fiscal update authored by Mark Carney, and Trudeau accused Poilievre of using Canadians’ struggles for his own gain but that he won’t lift a finger to help them.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, complained about a committee study, and wondered what the PM would say to the thousands of Muslims who are happy to assimilate into Quebec. Trudeau praised diversity and rights. Blanchet then wondered if Trudeau was defending religious “indoctrination” at certain Quebec schools, to which Trudeau praised the Charter, and then said it was the responsibility of those schools to hire the best teachers they could.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, said that Trump was a bully and that Trudeau was too weak to stand up to him. Trudeau said that they were taking a measured approach, working with leaders across the country, and were not freaking out like the NDP were. Singh exclaimed that Trudeau’s job wasn’t safe either, and then repeated the same question/demand in French. Trudeau reminded him that they defeated Trump tariffs in the past.

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Roundup: Healthy tensions made dramatic

The Globe and Mail had one of those stories that sets the cat among the pigeons, where they got a number of sources to describe the tensions between PMO and the department of finance over their spending plans, and in particular that the PMO was adamant that they wanted to do that stupid GST “holiday”/rebate cheque programme, while Chrystia Freeland was trying to keep a lid on spending because she had fiscal anchors that she was trying to stick to.

As for those anchors, Freeland had her usual Tuesday economic good news press conferences yesterday, and very deliberately said that the Fiscal Update next Monday will show that the debt-to-GDP ratio fiscal anchor would be met—but steadfastly refused to mention the other two fiscal anchors she spoke of in the spring, being a cap on the size of the deficit, and a target for the deficit to be less than one percent of GDP by 2026-27. Freeland repeatedly said that the debt-to-GDP ratio was the one that mattered and that we would see on Monday that it was continuing to decline, but the interpretation of that statement is essentially that the deficit will indeed by higher than $40.1 billion, but that overall GDP grew enough that the higher number is less of an issue. We’ll have to see on Monday, but she very much appeared to be telegraphing lowered expectations.

As for those tensions, if anyone has been around Parliament Hill for any length of time, this should be normal. PMO wants to do things that are politically expedient, and that usually involves spending money, which finance tries to rein in as much as they can. This appears to be little different from that very ordinary standard operating procedure. This, of course, didn’t stop Pierre Poilievre from pouncing on this in QP as proof that the PM has “lost control” of his Cabinet (which is risible on the face of it), and every journalist was trying to get some kind of comment on it (when they weren’t trying to get a comment on Trump’s latest slights). Maybe I’ve been up here too long but “PMO wants to spend money, finance tries to say no” isn’t really news. That’s a day that ends in y. Maybe we don’t need to be so breathlessly dramatic about everything all the time?

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile hit a clinic in Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday, killing at least six and injuring at least 22. A missile attack also damaged an industrial facility in Taganrog the same night. President Zelenskyy says that he used his meeting with Trump in Paris to raise the issue of security guarantees.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1866509325197316109

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QP: Pouncing on alleged tensions between PMO and Finance

Both the PM and his deputy were present for QP today, in advance of the Supplementary Estimates, as were all of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and cited the “weak” prime minister who has lost control of everything, and that he has now lost control of his finance minister, who wanted a big deficit but that Trudeau wanted an even bigger one, and wondered which of them would win. Trudeau said that when a government delivers dental care to seniors, or food to children’s schools, Canadians win, but they won’t if the Conservatives come to power. Poilievre insisted that his finance minister doesn’t agree and that he imposed the “inflationary” GST “holiday” plan on her. Trudeau said that the only one voting against Canadians is the leader of the opposition. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question and got much the same response, with a few added jabs that Poilievre was against growing the economy. Poilievre again quoted the Globe and Mail article from this morning, and wondered if they would meet their deficit target. Trudeau accused Poilievre of talking down Canada, while the Bank of Canada would likely cut rates again this week because inflation is on target, and then took another swipe at Poilievre controlling his caucus. Poilievre gave a tortured analogy about the finance minister driving a bus while a “lunatic” grabs control of the wheel, jerks it to the left and smashes through a guardrail down a cliff, Trudeau responded with a paean about the supports they have given Canadians, which Poilievre voted against.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and wanted the PM to denounce his immigration minister for calling out François Legault for attacking Muslims in the name of “secularism” while going to Notre Dame in Paris, to which Trudeau gave a rote line about Charter rights and diversity. Blanchet gave a torture definition of what equality means, and Trudeau reminds him that they should cherish individual rights and freedoms, and that the federal government will defend those rights.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and accused the government of siding with the Conservatives in voting against their GST cut proposal, and Trudeau said he was equally puzzled when the Conservatives voted against a tax break for Canadians—but didn’t say anything about the NDP’s plan (which was bad and disproportionately benefits the wealthy). Singh made a half-hearted jab about taxing (or axing?) the prime minister’s excuses, before switching to French to worry about private healthcare in Quebec. Trudeau said that they respect provincial jurisdiction but they have also invested billions in healthcare across the country and would defend the public system.

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