Tag Archives: CSIS

Roundup: Preparing for another tariff climbdown

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Prime minister Mark Carney held a (virtual) Cabinet meeting yesterday, followed by a virtual meeting with the premiers, and so far, the signs aren’t terribly encouraging. It was ostensibly about an update on trade talks with the US, given that the deadline passed and we’re not only no closer to any kind of resolution, but Trump raised the tariffs they are charging on non-New NAFTA items (which does nevertheless effectively mean we’re still one of the lowest tariff-rate countries overall), if you ignore all of the other sectoral tariffs that are having the biggest impact. And the premiers have also started to drift in their positions, whether it’s Doug Ford demanding more retaliation (even though he immediately backed down on his electricity export retaliation), or Danielle Smith and Scott Moe preferring to lick fascist boots instead.

Nevertheless, the tone coming out of Carney and the Cabinet is increasingly one where they are openly laying the groundwork for reducing or removing retaliatory tariffs or other measures, because really, appeasing Trump is clearly the way to go. Look at what pulling back on the Digital Services Tax got us. The question then becomes what happens to the increasingly large fiscal hole that eliminating these counter-tariffs will do to the balance sheet, because they booked a bunch of revenues from them, while they’re already promising deep cuts to government spending.

Just keep making concessions. That'll clearly get us a favourable deal.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-08-06T21:26:09.762Z

Meanwhile, the Conservatives have decided to go full-bore on the notion that Carney has broken his signature campaign promise because he has not only failed to reach a deal with Trump, but that tariffs have increased since then. Of course, this is premised on the completely false notion that Trump is a rational actor, but pretty much the entire Conservative caucus was tweeting variations of this very thing all day, because absolutely everything they do has to be about social media posts. Even more eye-rolling was Roman Baber lying about what the president of Mexico said about Anand and Champagne’s visit (her comments were that we don’t need a bilateral trade deal because the New NAFTA is still in effect, and even if it wasn’t, we’re both signatories to the CPTPP), because this is the state of the Conservative Party today.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian strikes killed two people and wounded at least ten in Zaporizhzhia, while shelling killed three and injured at least four in Nikopol. Russians also hit a key gas interconnector, which Ukraine says was about trying to undermine their preparations for winter (when Russia always attacks power supplies).

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Roundup: Forgiveness over permission, C-5 edition

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With hours left on the clock before the House of Commons would vote on Bill C-5, per the terms of the Closure motion passed earlier in the week, the Speaker agreed with an NDP motion that yes, the bill was indeed abusive omnibus legislation and agreed to split it into two parts to separate it for the final vote. It was a bit late to do so, because there was no ability to only advance one half and not the other, and it wasn’t going to matter much either considering that the Conservatives were going to vote in favour of it (because they absolutely want this Henry VIII clause on the books if they should form government in the next five years). And so, the first half of the bill, on the federal trade barriers, got near-unanimous support with only Elizabeht May voting against it, and the second half on major projects—and that Henry VIII clause—had the Bloc, the NDP, Elizabeth May and Liberal Nathaniel Erskine-Smith vote against it, not that those numbers made any kind of difference.

After the bill passed, Carney called a press conference in the Foyer, and had every Indigenous MP in the caucus as his backdrop (with a few others dropping in), and he insisted that it simply wasn’t communicated effectively how much Indigenous participation would be required for these projects, and that they would respect UNDRIP, and yes they would hold consultations with rights-holders over the summer to ensure that implementation of this legislation would be done “the right way.” Oh, and he totally swears that he’s not going to put a Henry VIII clause in any other bills—really! But all of those assurances left a sour taste.

It very much seems that Carney has taken the route of asking for forgiveness rather than permission, which is a really strange way to go about building trust with those rights-holders, especially when your MPs refused to let them speak at committee or have any participation in the legislative process. And you will forgive me if I don’t believe that they won’t ever use that Henry VIII clause to bulldoze over UNDRIP obligations on a project, because they gave themselves those powers for a reason. And if they think that they got away with asking for forgiveness rather than permission worked this time, who’s to say they won’t try that again when they do use those powers? Let’s not kid ourselves.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-20T22:56:10.284Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Drone attacks from Russia in the early hours of Thursday hit apartment buildings in Kharkiv and Odesa. There was another POW swap, and again, numbers were not disclosed. President Zelenskyy says that Ukraine is developing interceptor drones to deal with the Russian drones, whose numbers have increased in the past weeks.

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Roundup: The G6-plus-one, day two

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The remainder of the G7 Summit was odd with Trump’s early departure, in part because of how much space he took up at the event, and his subsequent absence case a long shadow. A number of leaders had come specifically to meet with him on the second day, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and with Trump gone, it made the trip seem less worthwhile for their broader goals. There was talk that a statement about support for Ukraine was scrapped because the Americans wanted the language to be watered down to useless—but Mark Carney’s office later retracted that claim, so it’s hard to say what actually happened there. Carney did, however, pledge another $4.3 billion for Ukraine and to help bring about more sanctions on Russia and their “shadow fleet,” so that’s not nothing. As for Trump, while on his way home, he was back to threats, insisting Canada will be paying tariffs unless we become a US state, and he increased the price for participation in the “golden dome,” with a number he pulled directly out of his ass.

As for the outcomes of the summit, there was an agreement on an increased use of AI (really?!) plus a “common vision” for quantum technologies. The Rapid Response Mechanism on disinformation and threats to democracy will update its reports to include transnational repression; there was also a pledge to do more to tackle migrant smuggling. There was agreement to coordinate efforts to manage the impacts of wildfires—but nothing about tackling climate change that is causing those fires. There was also talk about “economic corridors” for critical minerals, and enforcing standardised markets in order to combat Chinese dominance in that tech space.

Regarding the other meetings on the sidelines, Carney had his meeting with Narendra Modi and did raise transnational repression during his remarks, for all the good it did. The pair agreed to re-establish proper diplomatic relations and to re-appoint new high commissioners for each country, but we’ll see if India’s next representative is also tied to repression. Carney also had a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who was supportive of the plans to reach the NATO two-percent spending target this year (right before the summit where the plan is to increase it again). As for designated protest sites, they were largely quiet on the second day. (More highlights from the day here).

https://twitter.com/supriyadwivedi/status/1935050251351495064

Ukraine Dispatch

The attack on Kyiv early Tuesday morning was even deadlier than first anticipated, with 440 drones and 32 missiles fired, killing at least 18 people and wounding 151 others; Odesa was also hit. (Photos).

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Roundup: A lost vote for the sake of point-scoring

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The opposition shenanigans manifested during one of the very first votes of the new Parliament, where the government was not able to defeat the Conservative amendment to the Address in Reply to the Speech From the Throne. Said amendment urged the government to table a spring budget, but it’s not binding, and it looks like Mark Carney and the rest of Cabinet will take it under advisement and leave it at that (because you can’t produce a budget within two weeks’ notice, and the Conservatives know that very well).

What gets me is that you have the Conservatives (and others) going “what does it say when the government loses their first vote?” when it says nothing at all. If anything, it says that in a minority parliament, the opposition parties will do everything they can to embarrass the government, just as they have in previous parliaments, and given the current configuration of parties, this is really just a continuation of the constant juvenile bullshit we’ve seen over and over again that resulted in a paralyzed House of Commons last fall. Nothing really changed, and we’re going to see more that very same thing because we have the same insistence on juvenile point-scoring from the opposition, and we have the same Liberal government that is both inept at communicating their way out of a wet paper bag, and who are tactically incompetent because they think that they will somehow come out looking sympathetic to the procedural warfare and gamesmanship when they absolutely won’t because legacy media will simply not actually call anyone’s bullshit, but just both-sides the whole thing, and the Liberals will always lose in that framing. And I suppose what it says about the government is that they haven’t learned a single gods damned lesson from their near-death experience, and Carney’s complete political inexperience isn’t doing them any favours here either.

Meanwhile, the government introduced their big omnibus border bill, and it has a lot of troubling elements, from lowering thresholds for electronic data collection by law enforcement that won’t always require a warrant, and gives Canada Post more authority to open mail they deem suspicious. It also changes particular thresholds for asylum claims, and gives the government powers to simply stop claims or immigration processes with no explanation or apparent avenues for appeal. There are some positives, such as more resources for financial crimes, but in the grand scheme of things, I’m not sure it balances the negatives. The government claims they found the right balance that respects Charter rights, but I am dubious, and I suspect that law enforcement convinced them that they need these rights-violating powers and used Trump’s threats as a justification to get what they want.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian rocket attack killed at least four and injured at least 25 in Sumy. The city of Sumy remains under threat as Russians advance in that region. Ukraine detonated explosives on the concrete piers supporting the bridge linking Russia to Crimea, forcing its closure.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1929871991034568954

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Roundup: More provincial buck-passing, FCM edition

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The Federation of Canadian Municipalities had their big conference in Ottawa over the past couple of days, and there were a host of mayors and councillors on the Hill to meet with MPs. Yesterday afternoon, Mark Carney addressed their conference to basically give the same speech he’s been giving for the past couple of weeks about things like “moving to delay to delivery,” and so on. But I did find it interesting that as part of this address to the FCM, he essentially told them that he’ll be too busy with nation-building projects to reform municipal funding structures.

It’s kind of funny, but at the same time, I have to ask how that’s actually his job, or the job of the federal government at all. Cities are creatures of provincial legislation. If you want to reform their funding structures, the provinces need to sit down and hammer that out, unless you want to start amending the constitution, and I’m pretty sure that nobody wants to open that particular Pandora’s Box (which, incidentally, was not a box but a jar). We could let cities collect their own income or sales taxes, or other forms of financing that would be better than simply property taxes, but provinces refuse, and in some cases, have specifically legislated against it. And we’ve known for decades now that cities have funding challenges that they need something to be done about, but have provinces responded? Of course not. They simply demand the federal government send them more money.

With this in mind, Toronto mayor Olivia Chow was also here for the FCM meeting, and she says she is encouraged by Carney’s sense of urgency on tackling the housing crisis, but again, she too is here calling for the federal government to directly intervene with money. One thing she has proposed is for necessary infrastructure to build more housing, for the federal government to basically pay the municipality’s one-third share (so they essentially pay two-thirds and the province pay the other third), and it’s just so infuriating. The federal government is not the purse for every other jurisdiction. Provinces have the very same revenue-generating tools as the federal government does, but they refuse to use them because they would rather beg for money and let the federal government be the bad guy with their taxes than the province. This kind of absolute immaturity is just exhausting, and it’s one of the reasons why things just aren’t getting done in this country.

Or ever, if we're being honest.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-30T13:30:00.766Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s massive drone attack overnight Thursday injured two people in Kharkiv, and hit a town that sits on the border with Romania, which is a NATO member.

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Roundup: Axing the other tax, just because

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Because he is unable to pivot, or have any kind of plan B, Pierre Poilievre went to a steel plant yesterday to announce that he will not only repeal the full legislation that implemented the carbon levy, but he’ll also repeal the industrial carbon price under the bullshit magical thinking of “technology, not taxes.” The problem? Most provinces have their own industrial pricing schemes, and the federal backstop only applies to a couple of provinces, and mostly it set a price floor so that provinces can’t undercut one another. None of this is actually news, thought, as he’s been saying it for months, but most legacy media treated this as new and novel. Industry doesn’t like his plan—they prefer the industrial pricing system because it provides stability. But Poilievre needs a tax to axe, so he’s going all-in on making this a carbon price election after all, because he’s that incapable.

 

The problem with “technology not taxes” is that the price signals sent by carbon pricing are what incentivise companies to invest in the technology to reduce emissions. They won’t do it out of the goodness of their hearts. They need to feel the squeeze before they’ll invest to make the changes, and that won’t happen if they are given free licence to just pollute without consequence. You would think that a conservative party would understand market dynamics, but no. They don’t have an intellectual grounding any longer, they’re just rage-baiters looking to “own the Libs” by any means necessary. Oh, and the EU is going to start putting in carbon border adjustments, so if we’re pivoting our trade to those markets, well, our not having a price will find us being punished by their markets, so maybe this is a really dumb idea after all.

Feeling this so hard.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-03-18T01:50:50.104Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine’s military shot down 90 out of 170 drones overnight Monday, with damage and injuries reported in Odesa. Russians also claim that they are moving ahead in Zaporizhzhia region, saying they are pushing through Ukrainian lines. Ukraine has attacked energy facilities in Russia’s Astrakhan region, sparking a fire.

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Roundup: Foreign interference commission final report released

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Justice Marie-Josée Hogue released the final report of the Foreign Interference public inquiry yesterday, and there really weren’t too many surprises involved. While there have been attempts at foreign interference, it hasn’t affected the outcomes of any elections, and that our institutions have held up rather well—though not perfectly. Government has been too slow to respond in many cases, and we don’t have enough transparency around national security issues, nor is there a culture of national security in government to make these issues a priority. There has been progress, but we’re not there yet. In many respects, this report proves that David Johnston’s report was right, and we’ve spent a year-and-a-half duplicating efforts because opposition party leaders decided it was more fun to smear Johnston than take him seriously.

One of the most significant aspects was a repudiation of the NSICOP report that claimed there were parliamentarians that were somehow compromised, and Hogue went through how the intelligence didn’t actually say that, and how NSICOP’s characterisation torqued what had been alleged—and frankly, much of the news reporting torqued further because they didn’t bother to read the context in that report. Hogue also noted that much of the reporting that drove this moral panic and the subsequent inquiry was wrong, though she didn’t necessarily blame the journalists because they only had so much to go on. (Nevertheless, this should be a warning about just how absolutely credulous some of those reporters have been on this file since the beginning, and why they failed to adequately question the motives of those doing the leaking).

Two cents: The Chair of NSICOP should have been far more willing to explain what message the committee's report was meant to convey last summer.NSICOP reports have exaggerated things in the past. Hopefully, the next chair takes a more measured approach.

— Philippe Lagassé (@plagasse.bsky.social) 2025-01-28T17:55:57.033Z

Hogue's call for greater transparency in the national security space is key, too. That should be a key priority for whichever party is in government after the next election.

— Philippe Lagassé (@plagasse.bsky.social) 2025-01-28T18:02:26.554Z

Probably a good thing that the pressure to 'name names' wasn't followed through on, eh? We could have outright destroyed innocent people with potentially empty innuendo.

— Emmett Macfarlane (@emmettmacfarlane.com) 2025-01-28T17:38:06.873Z

A couple of other notables—Hogue noted that transnational repression is probably a bigger threat, but her mandate didn’t give her the latitude to explore that, so that remains a big flag for this or the next government to address. Even more to the point, she flagged disinformation as the most existential threat to our democracy, and called for a dedicated federal watchdog to monitor and intercept foreign meddling that uses social media platforms and “AI” tools like deep-fakes. She also recommended developing digital and media literacy among Canadians, which feels a bit like a “perfect world” wish, or at least something that we may be able to impart onto the next generation but I worry that the current one may be lost in that regard.

For more, here’s a thread from Stephanie Carvin who went through the report:

For those of you who have no idea what I'm talking about, here is the summary

— Stephanie Carvin (@stephaniecarvin.bsky.social) 2025-01-29T00:25:45.506Z

In the wake of this, Pierre Poilievre has let it be known that he’s not going to take that CSIS threat reduction briefing after all, because he can’t talk about what it says, so he is once again relying on the false notion that this, or any other security clearance, is somehow going to “gag” him. It won’t, but it would mean he has to be responsible with his commentary, which he does not want to do. He wants to be bombastic, and to lie at every opportunity, and so he will keep refusing a clearance or briefings, because he only cares about “owning the Libs,” not national security or the good of the country.

Because he's a self-interested venomous partisan who wants maximum freedom to be act like a weasel. I'm not sure why some Liberal partisans decided there was anything more nefarious than that at play.

— Emmett Macfarlane (@emmettmacfarlane.com) 2025-01-28T19:12:35.197Z

exactly so.Phil and I found in our work that the average MP would rather speak ignorantly than know more and then have to be somewhat responsible.PP is the extreme version of this–rather be a bomb thrower than have any responsibility.

— Steve Saideman (@smsaideman.bsky.social) 2025-01-28T19:23:04.269Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Overnight Russian air attacks wounded eight and damaged residential buildings around Ukraine on Monday night. Ukrainian drones are targeting power and oil facilities in the west and northwestern regions of Russia.

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Roundup: Tariff threats still inbound

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There were a few bits of Canada-US relations over the weekend, starting with the re-opening of the Notre Dame cathedral in Paris, where François Legault secured an invite, and managed to get a few minutes with Donald Trump as a result, and allegedly spoke about the border issues and tariffs. (Incidentally, all of the people who complain about Justin Trudeau’s foreign travel also complained he didn’t attend this event, because of course they did). Trump then went on Meet the Press and extolled the virtues of tariffs, claimed that the trade imbalance somehow means that America is “subsidising” Canada (what?!) and he’s still talking about annexing Canada and maybe turning it into two states (huh?!), because of course he is.

My favourite thing that happened all week was when the premier of Quebec said he wanted to ban public prayer and then flew across the ocean to attend the re-opening of a church.

— Paul Wells (@inklesspw.bsky.social) 2024-12-09T03:21:45.529Z

Meanwhile, several Conservatives including Jamil Jivani went to the IDU conference in Washington DC, and Jivani had dinner with his old friend JD Vance, as well as UK Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch. Poilievre insists that every Conservative is telling Americans that tariffs are a bad idea…yet they are also saying that Trump is right about the border and fentanyl, so do they not make Trump’s case for him? Again, does anyone think about anything they say these days?

And senior public servants are warning Trudeau that the size of America’s debt and deficit are going to have knock-on effects to our economy because they are so closely tied, particularly when it comes to interest rates on the bond market—higher interest on US treasury bonds also drives up the rates on Canadian government bonds. Take that for what it’s worth.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainians shot down 28 out of 74 drones Sunday night, with a further 46 “lost” likely from electronic warfare. No word yet on damage or casualties. Following a meeting with President Zelenskyy at the Notre Dame re-opening, Trump called for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict, along with usual schtick about making a deal, which meant that Russia has sent along their conditions. (Why does this give me a sinking feeling?)

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Roundup: A Pollyanna about Tuesday’s outcome

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I have not said much about the American election because not my circus, not my monkeys, and I really can’t get worked up about a contest I have no say in, however, comments made by the US ambassador to Canada this weekend have utterly boggled my mind. “I firmly believe that regardless of the outcome of the election, the United States is going to remain the most durable democracy in the world,” David Cohen said, and went on about how democracy will “easily” survive whatever the outcome of that election.

No. America has been teetering on the brink of autocracy for a while now, and while I get that his job is to be blandly reassuring as the ambassador, this just smacks of being a giant Pollyanna. And for Canada, where so much of what happens in the US leaks over the border and affects our politics here, those autocratic impulses are not far behind either. We already have provincial governments using tactics lifted directly from the authoritarian playbook, as is Pierre Poilievre, and he’s not shy about it either. And if America stops defending other democracies around the world under an autocratic regime, things are going to get very difficult indeed as these democracies are under threat from Russia and other autocratic actors who want to break them in order to show their own populations that democracy doesn’t work, so better to suck it up and live with the corruption of their autocratic states. And then there is Trump’s vision of NATO as a protection racket, that he fully intends to upend, and already Viktor Orbán is salivating at the thought of a Trump victory handing Ukraine to Russia, destroying a democracy the way he has been doing in Hungary.

There will be consequences, and I don’t think it helps anyone for Cohen to shrug it off like that.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian guided bomb hit a supermarket in Kharkiv, injuring at least five. Ukrainian forces destroyed 66 out of 92 Russian drones sent into the country overnight Saturday, and fortunately, no casualties were reported. Russians have also taken control of the village of Vyshneve in the Donetsk region, while Ukrainian forces hold back one of the most powerful offensives since the start of the invasion.

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Roundup: Scott Moe’s genital inspectors

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While I haven’t been following the Saskatchewan election too closely, but while on the campaign trial, incumbent Scott Moe promised anti-trans change room policies if re-elected. And I just can’t even.

Set aside for the moment the fact that this is a) the kind of anti-LGBTQ+ scapegoating that comes out of the authoritarian playbook; and b) that Moe has already told on himself with his previous anti-trans legislation whereby he not only pre-emptively invoked the Notwithstanding Clause, but also inoculated himself and his government from being sued for any harm that comes to trans people as a result of these policies, this policy is unenforceable, just like Danielle Smith’s similar pledge to ban trans women from playing sports in women’s and girls’ leagues. Is the plan from either premier that they plan to hire government genital inspectors before someone can enter a change room or play on a sports team? Or do they plan to let vigilantes do it for them and expose already vulnerable trans people to more violence?

And this is the real kicker—this very quickly spirals out from anti-trans panic to all-out assault on women who don’t conform to a preconceived notion of femininity at the hands of these vigilantes. There was a case last summer in BC where someone demanded that a nine-year-old girl who had a short haircut prove that she was actually a girl at a school track meet. This is the kind of harassment that Moe and Smith are promoting—now every girl with short hair, or small breasts, or who is a called a “tomboy” will need to subject herself to ongoing genital inspections to ensure that she’s not trans. And heaven forfend if a child was born intersex and is not easily sorted into this particular system. Is this the world that they actually want? It’s insidious and it solves not a single problem other than the ones in their fevered imaginations. And the fact that Moe thinks this is his Hail Mary pass in an election where he can’t defend his own record speaks volumes about where this kind of anti-trans panic has taken hold among voters on the political right.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 56 drones and a missile overnight against Mykolaiv in the south, attacking their energy infrastructure. Russia claims that they took the village of Maksymilianivka, but this has not been confirmed. President Zelenskyy told NATO members that their intelligence indicates that as many as 10,000 North Korean troops could be deployed on Russia’s side in the conflict, but no one else could corroborate this.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1846855444934852759

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