QP: Some clarity on a willingness to meet

After a number of statements about the need to stop bullying in support of Pink Shirt Day, things got underway for proto-PMQ day. Andrew Scheer led off, and he read a bunch of concern trolling about Teck Frontier, pretending that the project was economically viable when it was not. Justin Trudeau calmly responded that Teck pulled their own application and that they pointed to the need for credible environmental plans. Scheer then made up some bullshit about global commodity prices not bring an issue, to which Trudeau stated that you can have a jobs plan without an environmental plan. Scheer scoffed and stated that Trudeau had no plan, and blamed Trudeau for the problems in Western Canada, to which Trudeau responded that the statistics showed that they helped created a million new jobs, and lifted a million people out of poverty. Scheer blustered about how that couldn’t possibly be true, before switching to French to call Trudeau weak over the rail blockades. Trudeau stated that they needed to find a peaceful but sustainable resolution, and that aggressive and simplistic solutions like those the Conservatives proposed would not help. Scheer returned to English to claim that the Wet’suwet’en people really wanted the project and that Extinction Rebellion was listed as a terrorist organization (which is false), to which Trudeau said he was concerned that Scheer described the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs as “radical protesters,” which the Conservatives shouted him down over twice. Yves-François Blanchet wondered if Trudeau would unilaterally implement UNDRIP, to which Trudeau read that he was disappointed that the Conservatives stopped UNDRIP legislation in the last parliament. Blanchet reiterated the desire to immediately move ahead with such legislation, and would get Bloc support, to which Trudeau said they would table such legislation soon, before listing their accomplishments toward reconciliation thus far. Jagmeet a Singh was up next, and he demanded that Trudeau commit to meeting with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs, to which Trudeau noted that the NDP was focused on simplistic solutions when it is complex and that the minister is willing to meet him at any point. Singh repeated the demand, and Trudeau stated that there is a diversity of voices in the Wet’suwet’en community, and he didn’t want to influence the community’s internal discussions by only sitting down with one group.

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QP: Lessons from radical activists

While Justin Trudeau was indeed in the building, he was not to show up for Question Period for whatever the reason, so that left Andrew Scheer to lead off by reading that Trudeau, a former teacher, has taught “radical activists” the valuable lesson that they can bring the economy to its knees and that he would do nothing, before he called Trudeau “weak.” Bill Blair said that a commitment to dialogue and reconciliation was not a sign of weakness, and that they trusted the police to do their jobs. Scheer then railed that the government waited too long to decide on Teck Frontier, to which Jonathan Wilkinson reminded him that it was Teck’s decision, and that the CEO demonstrated the need for governments to work together to come up with climate action. Scheer claimed that the current government’s process killed Frontier, to which Wilkinson reminded him it was under the 2012 rules put in when Jason Kenney was in a Cabinet, and that process pushed all of the problems to the back of the process, whereas their new process turns that around. Gérard Deltell railed that the decision dragging out for nine months hurt the fourteen First Nations in the area, to which Wilkinson read quotes from Teck’s CEO. Deltell accused the government of working against those First Nations — as though the price of oil were not too low for the project to be viable — and Wilkinson quoted the letter’s section on global capital markets looking for clean projects. Yves-François Blanchet was up for the Bloc, and he was concerned about a series of crises in the country that the government was not doing anything about, and demanded that Trudeau meet with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs. Marc Miller stated that they were talking and building trust. Blanchet demanded that they head to BC to resolve the issue, to which Blair reminded him that it was a serious situation which is why they urged people to lift the barricades, and that they trusted law enforcement when those people didn’t. Jagmeet Singh was up for the NDP, and he bemoaned that people need free dental services, for which Patty Hajdu said that the Health committee would be studying the matter and she looked forward to their report. Singh then plugged their Supply Day motion to change the tax changes to divert money toward dental care, to which Hajdu repeated that she would wait for the committee report.

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Roundup: Reverberations and court references

The fallout from the Teck Frontier decision reverberated yesterday, whether it was with disappointed local First Nations, or industry groups giving the usual lamentations about investor confidence. More blame was thrown around, most of it at Justin Trudeau’s direction which seems to be in direct contradiction to what the company’s CEO said in his withdrawal letter, which talked about partisan bickering between levels of government, while also talking about how they supported carbon pricing and the emissions caps – in other words, largely siding with the federal government as the provincial government tore up the comprehensive and reasonable plan that the former NDP government had put into place with a great deal of thought and consultation, which introduced all manner of uncertainty into the market and put them into direct conflict with the federal government unnecessarily – but they also made the gamble that Andrew Scheer would win the last federal election and they wouldn’t have to worry about carbon pricing or strict regulations any longer, and well, that didn’t happen. Of course, it didn’t stop Kenney, Scheer or others from making up things wholesale in order to keep the blame on Trudeau, after they already overly raised expectations for the project (in part by lying about what its promises actually were). In conversation yesterday, a fellow journalist made the supposition that Teck may have been afraid of federal approval at this point because the expectations for it had been built so high when they knew they couldn’t deliver on it, in large part because the price of oil is simply far too low for the project to be viable, not to mention that it’s hard to attract financing as global investors are looking for climate-friendly projects these days.

In pundit response, Heather Scoffield points to the lack of the next stages of the federal climate plans, combined with Alberta’s battling those plans, as factors making us unattractive to investors. Scoffield also blames a lack of leadership for why it’s taking so long to get those needed plans in place. Max Fawcett considers Teck Frontier a metaphor for an Alberta past that won’t come back, and that the withdrawal of the application should be a wake-up call for those who are trying to bring that past back. Kevin Carmichael calls out Teck’s CEO for playing martyr while sabotaging the kind of conversation over energy and the environment that the country needs to have, but now won’t because the deadline is off the table and we have degenerated into assigning blame.

And then, as if things couldn’t get any more interesting, the Alberta Court of Appeal released their 4-1 decision that said that the federal carbon price was unconstitutional, in direct opposition to the decisions from Ontario and Saskatchewan (both of which will head to the Supreme Court of Canada next month). But that being said, there is a curious amount of overtly political editorialising within said judgement, from one of the concurring judges in particular, which I am assured by a law professor will be a field day for the Supreme Court of Canada when this ruling makes it to them.

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QP: Blockades and Teck

With protests going on outside of Parliament Hill, and a whole lot of performative bluster going on over the cancellation of the Teck Frontier mine inside the House of Commons, all of the leaders were present for the theatrics that were to come. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and in French, he read some condemnation about Trudeau’s alleged weakness and demanded to know how a future blockade would be handled. Scheer turned to English and started immediately getting breathy as he railed that there was a playbook for future radical activists, to which Trudeau reminded him that by cherry-picking only the Wet’suwet’en who agreed with him, Scheer demonstrated that he didn’t understand reconciliation. Scheer then pivoted to the Teck cancellation, and tried to make a connection to Trudeau allegedly breaking the law over SNC-Lavalin’s activities but his point got a bit lost after that. Trudeau reminded him that the message from Teck’s CEO was that you can’t have projects if you don’t have a credible plan on climate change. Scheer got increasingly breathy as he read condemnation, to which Trudeau stated that the opposition has refused to understand that the world is changing, and that global investors have indicated that they need to see strong action on climate change. Scheer then listed a number of falsehoods about Teck Frontier meeting requirements, for which Trudeau quoted Teck’s CEO’s support for climate pricing and regulations, and accused the Conservatives’ polarization for putting the economy at risk. Yves-François Blanchet was up for the Bloc, and wondered why there wasn’t action on getting the barricades removed. Trudeau stated that even though the RCMP withdrew from the affected area and the barricades didn’t come down, they had to escalate the situation. Blanchet worried things would get worse, and Trudeau reiterated his previous points. Jagmeet Singh was up next in French, putting the blame personally on Trudeau for not bringing down the barricades peacefully, to which Trudeau stated that they came to the table in good faith but other parties involved did not. Singh repeated the question in English, and Trudeau reiterated that when there was no reciprocal openness to dialogue from the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs, they changed their posture.

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Roundup: Teck withdraws

As the countdown to potential police enforcement at the Tyendinaga blockade were taking place, a bombshell hit – Teck Resources were “temporarily” withdrawing their application for the proposed Frontier oilsands mine, sparing the Liberal Cabinet of what was essentially an impossible decision, but also spurring the disingenuous cries from Jason Kenney and the federal Conservatives as to what this move represents. A big part of the decision was of course the fact that the price of oil is far too low to make the project viable, and global investment markets are making it clear that they are looking to invest in more sustainable projects, but we know that isn’t going to be the narrative that is being used to howl about it.

There is going to be so much wailing and gnashing of teeth over the next few days that the Liberals “politicized” the approval (which is funny considering it was the Conservatives that wrote in said politicization into the legislation in 2012, which was the process by which this project was being assessed), and that this will somehow be a loss of $70 billion in revenues (never mind that said figure comes from estimates that oil was somewhere around $95/barrel, when it’s currently hovering around $50 and is likely to remain so in the near term). Remember that there are about 20 other approved oilsands projects in Alberta that aren’t getting built because oil prices are too low to make them viable, and Teck has been saying for weeks if not longer that this was going to be the case as well – and yet Kenney, Scheer, and company have been making this approval into some kind of symbol or totem about the supposed health of foreign investment in Canada. It was only ever bullshit designed to make people angry for their political gain, but that’s what political discourse has devolved into these days.

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Roundup: The limits of Trudeau’s patience

Late in the day yesterday, Justin Trudeau announced that he had come to the limit of his patience, that his calls for dialogue were not being heeded, and that it was time for the barricades to come down – something that was hinted at during Question Period a couple of hours earlier when the parliamentary secretaries sent to recite scripts said that “dialogue has its limits.” Trudeau did not say how those blockades were to come down – he wasn’t issuing orders to police, given that the enforcement was a matter of provincial jurisdiction, but part of the call was for Indigenous leadership to basically get their own people to stand down (though that didn’t seem to go so well on Wednesday after one Mohawk grand chief had to walk back his calls for de-escalation). And while some of the premiers, Scott Moe included, said they were pleased by the changed message, Doug Ford continued to blame Trudeau for things happening in his own backyard.

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In the hours after the press conference, one sympathetic blockade south of Montreal was abandoned when riot police showed up to enforce the court injunction there. And in BC, the province’s Environmental Assessment Office suddenly told Coastal GasLink that they needed to engage in further consultations with the Wet’suwet’en people, since deficiencies in their previous efforts were pointed out to them over the course of the past couple of weeks, and were given 30 days to do so, which could further de-escalate the situation as the RCMP are moving out of their enforcement operations. But at the same time, that same group of hereditary chiefs has been shifting their demands, so that one minute on TV they’re saying the RCMP physically removing themselves from those operations was enough to start talks, the next minute putting out a press release saying that the RCMP needed to be out of their territory entirely, including routine policework, and then telling a radio station that because of Trudeau’s statement that they’re going to delay talks even further – all things that seem to me to further bolster Trudeau’s position that he’s been the reasonable one and the other side hasn’t been. And as for all of those people who insist that Trudeau is simply saying what Scheer did four days ago are ignoring the very important nuances of what has happened, as Andrew Coyne points out below.

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As for the handwringing by the likes of Scheer and Jason Kenney that these protests send a signal that things can’t get built in Canada, perhaps the signal is that things can’t get built the same way, cutting corners and running roughshod over these First Nations like they used to be able to. It’s like people who lament that we couldn’t build the railways these days, who seem to blithely ignore that said railways were built by displacing First Nations along its path, and importing virtual slave labour from China to do the work. If they think that’s the kind of thing that would fly today, then perhaps they need to give their heads a shake.

Meanwhile, Chantal Hébert worries that these protests were the “dress rehearsal” for future protests against the Trans Mountain construction, however I have a feeling that there are enough points of difference between the facts related to Wet’suwet’en territory and the Trans Mountain route that it will wind up playing very differently if that were to happen. Matt Gurney delves into the logistics and supply chains that depend on the rail corridors in this country, and how vulnerable the blockade has made us. Gurney also has a very good three-part series on Wet’sewet’en law and how it relates to the situation, which is well worth your time (parts one, two, and three). Paul Wells is dubious about Trudeau’s four-day limit to his patience, and the signals that it sends.

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QP: Radical, anti-free market activists

With some progress being made on the protest blockades over the morning, it remained to see how much that would change the tone of the questions, but if the Member’s Statements were any indication, it wouldn’t do much. Justin Trudeau was in town, but absent from the Chamber. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he seemed confused that Trudeau’s message would change daily — because apparently it’s not a fluid situation — and demanded to know when the blockades would come down. Bill Blair noted that the RCMP had made the decision to withdraw from the Wet’suwet’en site, they hoped for progress. Scheer read some stilted points about the “radical, anti-free market” activists (which is somewhat ironic considering that the Conservative have abandoned free-market solutions around things like climate change) before repeating his demand, and Blair repeated the response. Scheer intimated that Blair ordered the RCMP out and demanded to know that the pipeline would be guaranteed to be built, to which Blair corrected him that they issued no order because police operations are independent of government. Alain Rayes was up next to repeat the demand for a timeline in French, to which Marc Garneau stated that they we working with the provinces, and that Trudeau was speaking to them later today. Rayes repeated his demand for a timeline, and Garneau reiterated his response, stressing the need for a peaceful resolution. Yves-François Blanchet was up next for the Bloc, and he worried that patience was being confused for inaction, and took a swipe at Trudeau not having his conversation with premiers before QP, for which Marc Miller stated that he was hoping for a meeting with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs while they were in Ontario. Blanchet worried about the situation, and Miller said that they have a clear path forward but wouldn’t make it public just yet. Jagmeet Singh was up for the NDP, and demanded that Trudeau himself meet with those chiefs, to which Miller praised the positive development of the RCMP commitment to withdraw, and stated that there were clear steps to de-escalation. Singh repeated the demand, and Miller said that everyone pretends to know what is being demanded, but he’s the one who has been talking with them.

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Roundup: Looking for the path forward

The day in protests and rail blockades did not improve much, with more temporary layoffs announced, and new blockades were erected across the country, one of them near Edmonton, which sparked locals going in to try and dismantle it themselves – the kind of escalating behaviour that could get out of hand very quickly, and yet several prominent Conservative voices were either cheering on that kind of behaviour, or “warning” that more of this would happen because people were “frustrated.” Meanwhile, in Parliament, Andrew Scheer threatened to move a vote of non-confidence as part of the Conservatives’ Supply Day today, but decided to withdraw it late in the day, planning instead on a motion to condemn the current handling of the blockades. One suspects he may have overplayed his hand by threatening non-confidence, but the performative outrage continues to roll along. The premiers are also agitating for a teleconference with Trudeau, which could also happen today, for what it’s worth. As for Jody Wilson-Raybould, she continues to insert herself into this discussion, as though anyone would trust her.

As for the underlying situation, here is look over the history of the consultations with the Wet’suwet’en, and how the company appeared to have cut some corners when it came to the hereditary chiefs and their concerns. Here is a look over some of the issues with the different types of chiefs, and what is known about the agreements with the elected chiefs, as well as some additional context on how Indigenous law interacts with Canadian law. As for the RCMP presence, the hereditary chiefs want them and any company personnel gone from the work site before they hold any negotiations, citing that their presence acts as duress otherwise, and no, replacing the RCMP with some kind of Indigenous police force would not change that situation. What could also complicate things further is that four of the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs have arrived in Ontario to meet with the Mohawks leading the blockades here (while the one Mohawk grand chief who counselled them to dismantle the blockades has now publicly walked back his comments).

So where to from here? It seems to me that given that the government cannot order the RCMP or other police forces to clear the blockades – particularly without escalating the situation and creating a series of Oka or Ipperwash crises across the country – nor can they order the RCMP to withdraw from Wet’suwet’en territory, it means that it’s up to Coastal GasLink to swallow the losses and go to the court to withdraw the court order that the RCMP went in to enforce that touched off this whole mess. One has to wonder whether anyone is counselling them to that very effect, but if that’s the way out of this situation, then they may have to take their lumps and do their part to walk the country back from the brink, because there don’t appear to be any clear paths out of this particular mess otherwise. It should also be a warning to other developers that they can’t keep cutting corners, particularly with regards to Indigenous peoples. CGL should have consulted the hereditary chiefs as well as the elected ones, provided proper reassurances that no, this was not a stealthy way to put a bitumen pipeline through their territory (because yes, that conspiracy theory is floating around), and done that work ahead of time. The days of cutting these corners has to stop, or we’ll keep going through this exercise time and again.

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QP: Demanding to end the blockades

In the wake of the statements in the Commons earlier this morning on the ongoing protests and blockades across the country, the benches were full and all of the leaders were present for QP. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he read some of his same condemnation for the government not dealing with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs in favour of those who support Coastal GasLink. Justin Trudeau noted that they are concerned with dialogue, and that he invited other parliamentary leaders to discuss the matter but not Scheer because he disqualified himself after this morning’s statement. Scheer insisted that Trudeau was elevating “professional protesters” with those Indigenous communities that wanted these projects, and demanded a date for the blockades to come down, and Trudeau reminded him that they need solutions for the long term. Scheer decried the lack of action, and Trudeau said that they needed to ensure there was long-term partnership so that Canadians could rely on their transportation network rather than short-term violent action. Scheer again tried to insist that Trudeau was pandering to activists, and Trudeau reminded him that the Conservatives couldn’t get projects built because they would pick and choose who they would engage with. Scheer got increasingly breathy and high-pitched as he demanded action, and Trudeau reminded him that five years ago, Canadians chose parties who were committed to reconciliation. Yves-François Blanchet was up next for the Bloc, and he expressed his concern that Québec and Canada’s image was one where Indigenous communities were opposed to development, and wanted some clarity on the timeline for when blockades would be lifted. Trudeau stated that they were still committed to dialogue, and that was the first step to lifting the barricades. Blanchet asked for future meetings on the issue, and Trudeau said that he was open to that — for parties that wanted to engage constructively. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and demanded to know when the federal government would meet with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs, but they were waiting on them. Singh wanted concrete action now, but pivoted to record-keeping on Indigenous kids in care, go which Trudeau reminded him that child and family services were provincial jurisdiction and they were working to devolve that to First Nations themselves.

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Roundup: Ministers inbound

The ongoing protests in support of those First Nations hereditary chiefs protesting the Coastal GasLink pipeline have not yet resulted in arrests, raids, or other police action to enforce the court injunctions just yet, and VIA Rail has shut down passenger rail service throughout the country, while CN Rail has shut down their eastern Canadian operations for the time being, and that means temporary layoffs. There has been more government responses now – BC premier John Horgan is setting up new meetings, while Carolyn Bennett is heading to BC to meet with those hereditary chiefs, while Marc Miller will be meeting with the Mohawk leaders setting up the blockades in Central Canada (while Justin Trudeau says he remains apprised of the situation while abroad, and will be returning to Ottawa tonight following the conclusion of the security conference in Munich). Trudeau reached out to one of the First Nations leaders leading a solidarity protest blockading the port in Prince Rupert, and that seems to have worked, as they agreed to dismantle that particular blockade.

Part of what is underlying the response to these protests seems to be an aversion to another Oka crisis – so we’ll see whether there have really been any lessons learned, thirty years later. And police action would inflame the situation, and they seem to be alive to that situation, which is probably a good thing. I have to wonder if part of the response to this isn’t also a bit of a mirror of what we saw recently with the CN Rail strike, where certain voices started immediately howling that Parliament needed to be summoned in order to ram through back-to-work legislation or there would be dire consequences, and the government held off and lo, a resolution came within about eight days. Was there some disruption? Yes. Was the outcome better than if they had taken out the sledgehammer? Undoubtedly. And it would seem to me that similar thinking is underway here. Despite a few middle aged, white male columnists are melting down over, things are not at a crisis level – they are largely inconveniences, which is the point of protest. And by not making things worse, there remains a chance to resolve this in a peaceable manner.

This having been said, the cries that Trudeau is off trying to secure a UN Security Council seat instead of dealing with this “crisis” are myopic and don’t grasp what the seat would do for Canada (articulated in this thread), though I will lay that on this government’s chronic inability to communicate their way out of a wet paper bag. I also suspect that the hereditary chiefs’ attempt to launch a constitutional challenge against the pipeline on an environmental basis is going to blow up in their faces, so I’m not sure either side is doing themselves any particular favours in all of this.

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