Roundup: Outlining the transition steps

The government unveiled their planned next steps in income supports for the economic recovery yesterday, starting with an additional month of CERB, after which they will start transitioning people to EI (with relaxed criteria) as well as a new system of support benefits for those who don’t normally qualify for EI, as well as sick benefits. I’m given to understand that part of why they are being transitioned away from CERB has to do with flexibility – the EI computers are more able to handle the ability to allow benefits to flow while a person is still getting incomes than the CRA’s system does, and that is one of the things that are being rolled out here, so that people don’t lose benefits the moment they reach an arbitrary threshold. (More from economist Jennifer Robson in this thread).

Something that came up repeatedly over the day (particularly on certain politics shows), however, was the notion that while the legislative portions of these changes would need to happen fast when Parliament is recalled, that nothing could happen until after a confidence vote on the Speech from the Throne. This is false. Once the Speech has been read by the Governor General, the government can start introducing and debating other bills. They don’t have to simply debate the Reply to the Speech, and they don’t have to have an immediate confidence vote. In fact, they don’t need to have one at all, given that there are other confidence votes coming up in the Supply Cycle. Yes, Trudeau did promise a confidence vote, in what appears to be a dare to the opposition, but that’s not the point here – the point is that they can introduce these measures in Bill C-2, and swiftly pass them before Trudeau has that confidence vote. All of the pearl-clutching that I’m seeing is completely for naught, because people don’t pay attention to process or procedure (and I’m sure a few of them are trying to create an artificial sense of drama).

https://twitter.com/SkinnerLyle/status/1296556887761129476

Meanwhile, a certain senator is grousing that transitioning people to EI is going to be too complicated, so he wants the provinces to start basic income pilots, and I can’t even. Economist Lindsay Tedds has been working on this issue for a long time and has stated that we don’t need more pilots – governments need to simply design programmes that meet their objectives, but it seems that said Senator hasn’t been listening when she’s told him that directly.

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1296646779639746560

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QP: Trying to single out ministers to divide the Cabinet

The prime minister was finally present for the second day of the mid-July sitting, after his inexplicable absence the day before. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, where he insisted that Canadians had enough of his scandals, and demanded he appear before committee. Trudeau stated that he was considering the invitation, that he was happy to be here today and tomorrow, and that he should have recused himself when the suggestion was made by the public service. Scheer spun a tale of WE’s alleged schemes, and again demanded that Trudeau appear at committee. Trudeau responded by listing the aid they have given students. Scheer then ranted about his disgust with the Liberals and didn’t have a question, to which Trudeau chided him about the things that he should be asking about, like the aid package under debate. Scheer got increasingly breathy as he again spun out a conspiracy theory around WE, wondering on what basis the civil service could have recommended WE, to which Trudeau stated that the civil service looked at the government’s plans and decided WE was best placed to fulfil it. Scheer quoted a charity watchdog on WE’s ability to fulfil the programme, and the asked Chrystia Freeland what it would take for her to lose faith in the prime minister, but Trudeau rose once more to praise the efforts they have made to engage students and support them. Yves-François Blanchet was up next for the Bloc, and he meandered around the problems Trudeau is facing, to which Trudeau insisted that they were focused on helping Canadians through the pandemic. Blanchet quipped that Trudeau couldn’t buy his way out of a crisis, and a suggested that Trudeau temporarily step aside and let Freeland replace him, and Trudeau praised the Safe Restart agreement with the provinces. Up next was Jagmeet Singh for the NDP, and he wondered why Trudeau didn’t recuse himself when the WE contract came up, and Trudeau stated that he followed the recommendation of the civil service. Singh insisted that apologies mean nothing if the Liberals help their “wealthy friends,” and worried why they didn’t just use another program instead, to which Trudeau said it was a shame that the NDP was so cynical about measures for students.

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Roundup: Manufacturing an “attendance” record

The big headline that everyone was talking about yesterday was a load of manufactured bullshit, which shouldn’t really surprise anyone, but it was what everyone was throwing around nevertheless. The Globe and Mail crunched the numbers from the Zoom log-ins from the special COVID-19 committee that has been sitting in lieu of regular House of Commons sittings, and found that lo, the Conservatives had the worst “attendance record.” Which is kind of hilarious because it completely misunderstands how this whole farcical process works. Oh, but the Conservatives must be hypocrites, because they’re demanding full sittings! Well, no – you’ve just found some numbers that you’re applying disingenuously in order to make them look like hypocrites. It’s exactly the kind of stunt that causes people – and small-conservatives especially – to distrust the mainstream media, because it looks an awful lot like they’re not being given a fair shake. Of course, Andrew Scheer didn’t do himself any favours when he called it “Liberal spin” rather than pointing out that this was a false construction, but his inability to do anything other than meathead partisan talking points was and still is his downfall.

Why this is such bad-faith “reporting” is because it ignores the fact that there is a set speaking list every day. If you’re an MP – particularly a Conservative MP in a rural riding where you have spotty Internet to begin with – what incentive is there for you to log into Zoom and watch it that way when you have no chance to participate when you can simply follow the proceedings on CPAC and get a better experience because the translation tends to work better? It also operates on the assumption that all 338 MPs are in the House of Commons at all times when Parliament is sitting regularly, which isn’t the case – the only time all MPs are in the Chamber are during Question Period and for votes, and no, despite the sales job that the government has been trying to foist onto the public, this committee is not Question Period. Trying to hand out attendance awards for participating in a Zoom call on steroids is a waste of everyone’s time and resources, and is a distraction from the actual issues related to the calls to have proper in-person sittings – or it would be if the majority of media outlets could actually report critically on it rather than swallowing the government’s lines.

Speaking of outrage clicks, the CBC has again been misrepresenting some Senate matters, like how the Selection Committee works, as part of their story wherein Senator Dalphond is calling for committee chairs and deputy chairs to rescind their “bonuses” in the current session because of many haven’t sat because of the pandemic. But it occurs to me that it’s unlikely that chairs have even been getting their stipends because most committees haven’t even been constituted yet, which makes this look even more like this is part of Dalphond’s particular vendetta against Senator Yuen Pau Woo, and Woo’s insistence on chairing the Selection Committee, and he’s trying to use a larger point about chairs’ salaries (using false comparisons with the House of Lords as ammunition) in order to provide cover from making this look personal. I am becoming extremely concerned about Dalphond’s behaviour here – though my disappointment with how the CBC covers the Senate is pretty much standard. Cheap outrage clicks on the backs of misrepresenting the Senate is par for the course for how journalism runs in this town. (I wrote more on the backstory here).

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Roundup: An unequivocal no to interfering in an extradition

For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau once again praised the wage subsidy, and highlighted yet another business who had used it to great effect – part of his ongoing campaign to convince more businesses to take it up and re-hire their employees as the economic restart continues to ramp up. By way of announcements, he spoke of new resources being made available for people and businesses who had questions about the re-opening, and then spoke about a $100 million investment in the Merit Functional Foods plant in Winnipeg as part of the “Protein Supercluster,” and creating more plant-based foods in Canada. Trudeau also spoke about a $94 million investment that Minister Karina Gould would be announcing at the SheDecides Conference, which would go toward the health, and sexual and reproductive rights of vulnerable women around the world.

During the Q&A, he was asked about the situation of temporary foreign workers from Mexico, to which he said that they were working with source countries and business owners to ensure that there were proper protections in place, and warned that there would be consequences for those employers that failed their workers, as three have now died in Canada. On the subject of airlines’ pleas to reopen international travel, Trudeau said that they needed to be very careful about reopening it, otherwise we would see a new spike in cases as they are experiencing in some other countries who opened sooner and not as carefully as most of Canada has. And then there were a raft of questions on the fraught questions of the arbitrary detentions of Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor, the extradition of Meng Wanzhou, and Chinese officials sniping at Trudeau to stop making “irresponsible” comments that link the case, even though they themselves have done so.

If there was anything newsworthy out of that was the fact that when asked if Trudeau would consider making a deal to halt the extradition in exchange for releasing the Two Michaels, Trudeau gave an unequivocal no, that he would not make any deal that would undermine our judicial system. When presented with the notion that Kovrig’s family sought a legal opinion to say that the minister could indeed interfere, Trudeau again poured cold water on that suggestion, again citing the need to keep our judicial independence in place. It’s worth remembering that Trudeau was part of a G7 announcement about governments making a commitment not to pay ransoms in order to protect their citizens from being the targets of kidnappings around the world, and hostage diplomacy is just that. (And for all of the smartasses over social media who said “He already interfered with the judiciary with SNC-Lavalin,” he did not interfere with the judiciary – the charge was that he tried to interfere with the prosecution, which was not the same thing, and I remain unconvinced that it was what actually happened, no matter some of the unsavoury things that did happen with the deferred prosecution agreement legislation).

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Roundup: Singh walks back his demands

Prime minister Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was fairly scattershot – plenty of announcements therein, but most of them fairly small. There was news that the changes to the Canada Emergency Business Account eligibility were coming on Friday, and that the new food surplus rescue programme was now open for applications. Trudeau spoke of a new global AI partnership, which would house a centre of excellence in Montreal, and that Mary Ng was participating in a meeting about World Trade Organization reform. Trudeau mentioned our troops headed back to Ukraine, before citing that he had agreed to a UN request for airlift support to transport medical supplies and humanitarian assistance. And finally, he raised the fact that it was World Elder Abuse Awareness Day, and spoke about its importance.

During the Q&A is where some of the interesting developments for the day happened, because a number of reporters asked if he was going to extend the Canada Emergency Response Benefit for a few more months, and Trudeau kept responding that the programme was about ensuring people could stay home so that we could flatten the curve of infections, and that they would have Canadians’ backs, and that they would have more to say later in the week – not guaranteeing the same programme would carry on longer. Why this was important was because Jagmeet Singh made a big song and dance that his support for the Supply Bill coming up this week – a confidence vote – would be contingent upon the CERB being extended for four more months. And by end of day, Singh was on the political shows, walking back his unequivocal statements, instead insisting that he didn’t want to be prescriptive (when that’s exactly what he was), so it sounds like the Liberals have been hinting at him a little more strongly about what they will have as a transition post-CERB. We’ll see on Wednesday, but it will likely be enough that Singh can pat himself on the back and claim victory like he did on Trudeau’s promise to talk to the provinces about paid sick leave (which they still haven’t agreed to, by the way).

The bulk of the rest of questions for Trudeau were on the two RCMP shootings in New Brunswick last week and the issue of systemic racism and what he was going to do right away about it. Trudeau responded that they were busy looking over previous reports to see what could be done immediately, and that there was more to come in the near future. This was as Progressive Senator Lilian Eva Dyck made a public call for RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki to resign or be fired given that she was unable to comprehend the problem of systemic racism in her own organization, and that it was a sign that they needed different leadership at this time of trying to address said systemic racism. Trudeau says he still has confidence in Lucki, but Dyck has certainly pushed the conversation further.

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Roundup: Cautious progress in most places

For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau led off by teasing that new federal modelling numbers were on the way, before mentioning the global vaccination pledging conference, and then turned to domestic measures to help seniors, announcing that their additional OAS and GIS payment would go out on July 6th. During the Q&A, there were questions on Huawei (as the US is making more clear threats to limit intelligence sharing with Canada if they aren’t banned), the fact that he hasn’t been more equivocal in denouncing Trump, and recent instances of police violence and misconduct in Canada such as one in Nunavut.

As promised, the new federal modelling numbers were released shortly thereafter, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that the two biggest problem areas in the country remain Toronto and Montreal. There remain warnings that we could see another outbreak if testing and tracing regimes aren’t increased. This having been said, I think it was the data released by BC yesterday that was even more interesting.

One is the data around contact tracing (which that province can seem to manage, but Ontario can’t in its epic managerial incompetence), and it shows that once lockdown measures were in place, the number of contacts that infected people made dropped from 10.7 per case to 3.6, which is a pretty effective demonstration of why physical or social distancing matters.

The other is this analysis of the genomic epidemiology of the virus – as in, where it’s travelled from, because there are small mutations based on where it’s come from, and lo and behold, the vast majority of them were from European/Eastern Canadian strains and very few from China. But hey, the Conservatives and others keep insisting that if only we’d closed the border to China sooner, this all could have been avoided. This data proves that simply wasn’t the case (despite what people like Dr. Theresa Tam have been saying already) – not that it will stop their revisionist history. Nevertheless, it’s interesting stuff.

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Roundup: MPs and their “new normal”

Over the weekend, we saw a few pieces that were attempting to put the House of Commons’ current situation into context, both along with how some provinces are handling their own situations in the current pandemic context, but also just getting a bit of a sense from MPs themselves. There is a sense that these hybrid committee meetings are “better than nothing,” with some of those MPs acknowledging that actual in-person sittings are better for the sheer fact that one can often talk to a minister about an important file just by showing up, or that a lot of the real work gets done in the lobbies and corridors and not in the chamber itself, which is great to see – it’s not just about the performative questions, though that is what the government and its allies have reduced the Commons to, with no real appreciation for the lack of oversight for the massive spending being pushed through.

That said, we also need to be very wary of those who will try to use this opportunity to push their agendas – those who go on about how the “old normal” wasn’t working in Parliament, and hey, isn’t this an opportunity to push through reforms that they couldn’t before. The problem is that a lot of those proposed reforms were simply bad and would make the House of Commons a far worse place, because they completely misunderstood what the problems were and continue to be. Nevertheless, we’re going to see many attempts by some of those same MPs to not let a good crisis go to waste, so you can bet there will be no shortage of these proposals going forward.

Meanwhile, with all of the attention on the protests in the US (and a few in Canada as well), here was a worthwhile thread from social development minister Ahmed Hussen:

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QP: Calling out a fake parliament

It was a skeletal Chamber, as was to be expected during these pandemic times, not to mention a bit hot and stuffy. After some pent-up members’ statements, things got underway. Andrew Scheer led off, with his mini-lectern in front of him, and he immediately mocked the agriculture minister for saying that farmers don’t understand the programmes on offer to them. Trudeau responded by reading a list of actions that the government has taken. Scheer then shifted to the actions of the government of China toward Hong Kong, and demanded an unequivocal denouncement and a plan of action. Trudeau responded without notes that they support the people of Hong Kong, and that they would continue to work with allies to uphold human rights. Scheer suggested that wasn’t an unequivocal condemnation, and Trudeau responded that they have stated in no uncertain terms their “deep concern,” which got some chirping from the Conservative ranks. Scheer tried again, bringing up the plight of the two Michaels being held in China, and Trudeau repeated his response. Scheer again demanded action on China, and Trudeau reminded him of the statement with allies in defence of Hong Kong. Yves-François Blanchet was up next for the Bloc, and he gave a paean to Quebec’s “special” economy and praised its small businesses before condemning that political parties have received the wage subsidy. Trudeau reminded him that they need people to be taken care of so that the economy can come back strong after the pandemic. Blanchet demanded that money go to small businesses in Quebec, and Trudeau responded by listing measures available to small businesses. Jagmeet Singh then got his turn, demanding paid sick leave “immediately,” to which Trudeau read that they were continuing discussions with the provinces on the issue. Singh then demanded more help for people with disabilities, to which Trudeau said that they have set up an advisory committee to work on the ways to assist them.

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Roundup: Uploading their environmental liabilities

For his Friday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau was again laden with a myriad of announcements that he needed to unburden himself of. First it was the announcement that 125 medically-trained personnel from the Canadian Forces would be headed to Quebec to assist with their situation in long-term care facilities, with more assistance to come from the Canadian Red Cross and the banks of volunteers assembled by Health Canada and within the province itself. From there, it was that the government would spend $1.72 billion to remediate orphan wells in Alberta, BC and Saskatchewan, and more money for oil companies – particularly in Newfoundland and Labrador – to deal with their methane emissions. And then, it was money to help artists, athletes, and entrepreneurs. And finally, it was remarking that it was the anniversary of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. And if you’ve caught your breath, during the Q&A, there was discussion about Parliament meeting in person one a week (the Conservatives want four times a week), that Finance Canada is looking at some kind of financial aid for provinces who can’t get access to cheap credit.

During the ministerial briefing afterward, there it was made clearer that there was going to be more money for regional development agencies so that they can help out local companies when they have difficulty getting commercial loans to bridge them through this period. Navdeep Bains said that they are still looking into technological solutions for contact tracing (and the Privacy Commissioner has issued guidelines if that is the case). Oh, and Canada Day is going to be virtual (which saves them from having to deal with not having access to Parliament Hill anyway because of construction).

But back to the energy sector. I find myself annoyed that the federal government has opted to go the route of paying billions of dollars to remediate these orphan wells because it means the sector – and the province itself, who set the deficient regulations that allowed the situation to spiral out of control – have successfully managed to upload those environmental liabilities to federal taxpayers. And I get that Trudeau has a political incentive to both be seen to be helping Alberta, and to patting himself on the back that this is an environmental measure, but it’s deeply frustrating because it’s only a little over a year ago when the Supreme Court of Canada ruled that companies, and in particular trustees in bankruptcy, can’t just offload these liabilities to the government to salvage the assets. (This, as the sector says that the measures aren’t good enough because it’s not targeted to their liquidity issues, and their boosters keep calling for a freeze to carbon pricing and environmental regulations, because of course they are.)

The province has made a lot of money by punting its environmental liabilities to the future. They didn’t properly ensure that these wells had securitized their remediation, because making companies pay upfront would hurt investment. And in the oilsands, they just trusted that the tailings ponds would act like regular mining tailings, and when they didn’t, they kept expanding and hoping that someone in the future would figure the problem out, and now they’ve got a giant problem on their hands, but hey, they needed to ensure the money flowed fast and immediately, which they then didn’t properly tax or charge sufficient royalties on, and now that the bill has come due, they’ve successfully ducked it and made sure the federal government pay it for them – all while shouting that they’ve paid for everyone else all this time so now we owe them (not true, and not how equalization works). Add to that, you have people like Elizabeth May saying that she opposed oil and gas subsidies but supports this kind of orphan well remediation in spite of the fact that it’s a giant subsidy, I can barely even. I’m an Albertan – I get that the sector is hurting, and yes, it’s hurt my own family, but I also get that it’s now a structural problem and that the boom days are never coming back because nobody has a time machine and can go back to stop the development of shale oil. Demanding the federal government bail them out – particularly after the province chose to put themselves in their current fiscal situation by refusing to properly tax their own wealthy and ensure a reasonable consumption tax because they instead chose to spend their oil resource revenues – just feels a bit rich.

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Roundup: Supplies, spin, and rent

Prime minister Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was on the theme of medical supplies – signing agreements with three major medical suppliers in the country, MOUs signed with five other companies, and some 3000 other companies who have volunteered to help the government with those supplies in whatever way they can. Trudeau also noted that they have allocated an additional $2 billion for new personal protective equipment, largely by way of bulk-purchasing, and that more supplies would be arriving within days. As well, the government is tasking its next-generation manufacturing supercluster with scaling-up these kinds of producers to meet the domestic and global demand. Why this became a somewhat fraught issue is because there are places in the country where PPEs are being rationed, and Quebec stating that they were days away from running out – though Trudeau said that in some cases, it may be the medical providers who were rationing because they were trying to preserve supplies for an anticipated surge of cases.

[Here is another Q&A with infectious diseases specialist, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, and a discussion on the current debate about masks.]

Meanwhile, the National Post hears from a bunch of government insiders who claim that the attempt to get the power of taxation without parliamentary approval was about trying to hold leverage of the big banks who have been reluctant to loosen lending requirements, which is an explanation that makes absolutely no sense, and makes me again repeat that there appears to be a cadre of jackasses in Morneau’s office who have been responsible for many of this government’s missteps and woes, and we shouldn’t trust them.

And while I’m on the subject of jackasses, I spent much of yesterday on the Twitter Machine trying to remind people that rent is provincial jurisdiction, so constantly hounding the federal government is a waste of time. This was met with numerous people who insisted that the federal government could invoke the Emergencies Act to claim that power. The mind boggles. Why in the hell would the federal government invoke the tool of last resort to intrude into landlord/tenant legislation when the provinces are perfectly capable of doing so on their own. It makes zero sense. Add to that the people crying out that the federal government should immediately give money to renters, as though there were a mechanism to do so. It’s taking the CRA three weeks to retool their systems to deliver the CERB, which is a pretty breakneck speed to ensure that the system can do what’s being asked of it and hopefully not fail doing it (because their computers are not magic, and you can’t just type “give everyone $2000” and expect it to happen. It’s impossible). And no, there is no analogous funding arrangement to healthcare or post-secondary, as others were trying to claim – those are funding envelopes to provincial governments that come with agreements. They don’t go to individuals, and they are not spending in provincial jurisdiction over the objection of any province. The number of people who seem to think otherwise is astounding.

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