It was a much calmer day yesterday with little in the way of new announcements – the most noteworthy part of Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was that he was actually on time for possibly the first time ever! Oh, and the border restrictions for non-essential travel will probably only kick in sometime on Friday night, but details were still being worked out. As well, there is still no contemplation of use of the Emergencies Act, but it remains a tool in the box if need be.
With the slower news day in mind, here is economist Kevin Milligan who goes through the criticisms of the government’s massive aid package, and addresses which are fair and which ones may not have all of the considerations therein.
As the impact of the pandemic starts to be really felt in Canada, there is a new kind of rhythm starting to take shape in Ottawa, which is essentially that we get our daily press conference with Justin Trudeau, followed by ministerial press conferences, one after the other, and along the way, the daily briefings and pressers from the different provinces creep up in there as well. Today’s Trudeau press conference outlined the agreement to close the Canada-US border to non-essential traffic, and to outline the broad strokes of the $82 billion in economic measures (when you include tax deferrals) designed to help the country cope with the pandemic. He also said that measures specific to the airline industry and oil and gas sector were coming later in the week, including significant measures to remediate orphan wells in Alberta, which means that the federal government has now assumed a chunk of the province’s environmental liabilities, and both the companies that left them and the province that didn’t properly regulate their remediation are going to be let off the hook, so slow clap for that one.
Morneau says they will announce a “significant” orphan well remediation fund in the coming days. So the federal government has just assumed the environmental liabilities of the oil and gas sector. #cdnpolipic.twitter.com/uox1A54lza
Other measures included in the package were a suspension of federal student loan repayments (made interest-free), and distinctions-based funds for Indigenous communities, along with additional funds for shelters and the homeless. Not everyone is happy with those measures – the small-business lobby says that the measures aren’t enough to stop layoffs because the wage subsidy is only ten percent, which they say isn’t big enough. And in case this weren’t all bad enough, the price that Canadian oil is going for fell to its lowest level ever. So that’s fun.
We also learned that negotiations are ongoing between the parties – and Chambers – to temporarily recall Parliament in order to pass spending measures that were announced yesterday, and that could happen as early as next week, because there is a forty-eight-hour window after the Speaker agrees to the request. Part of the issue is the negotiation around how many MPs to recall – quorum for the Commons is twenty, and fifteen for the Senate – because they want to ensure proportionality. Pablo Rodriguez stated that he also wants to ensure that it’s MPs who don’t have to travel by plane to get here, but Jagmeet Singh was on TV yesterday saying he’s ready to come back, which kind of defeats the purpose, especially if we’re trying to encourage Canadians not to travel.
[Maclean’s has updated their Q&A on symptoms and contacts on where to get help.]
Meanwhile, Heather Scoffield gets a personal perspective on the aid package announced today, while Kevin Carmichael weighs in on the debate around the package – whether it is preferable to favour speed and not precision – by finding that the details are a bit too finnicky, but also notes the “elasticity” of the aid, which can expand or contract as need be as it progresses. In this thread, the Parliamentary Budget Officer finds it not targeted enough (though I’m not sure that it’s his job to weigh in on policy decisions like this). Economist Lindsay Tedds also has some suggestions on how provincial governments can step up given that the federal aid package only goes so far.
Here’s a look behind-the-scenes of the discussions around closing the Canada-US border.
Two new test kits for COVID-19 have been approved for use in Canada, to hopefully speed up testing in provincial labs.
The IRB has suspended in-person refugee hearings for the time being, and CBSA has halted deportation orders.
Here’s a look into emergency federal procurement rules that can be activated to rapidly source things like medical equipment.
The Hill Timesgot a look into the deals made between parties and caucuses in both chambers to pass those four bills and to suspend Parliament.
CBC is suspending their local evening news broadcasts for a central CBC News Network broadcast (in place of Power & Politics), which may breach CRTC rules.
It looks like MPs have agreed on a subcommittee of MPs to help guide the Centre Block renovations, including a list of “do not touch” heritage spaces.
Jason Kenney introduced an aid package for Alberta given that the province is being hit not only with COVID-19, but also plummeting oil prices.
Colby Cosh offers a meditation on the nature of liberal democracy in times of crisis like the one we’re facing.
Susan Delacourt notes that the current pandemic means that the government has stopped talking about citizens as “taxpayers” and framing politics as transactions.
Odds and ends:
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In a week where the news was coming at you like a firehose, Friday was possibly triple that. I literally sent from one press conference to another for a period of five hours. But to start the day off was the news that the House of Commons was indeed going to be suspended for five weeks (really only the loss of two sitting weeks), and they had arranged to complete passage of the New NAFTA implementation bill first thing, which was fine, because they were already on the last scheduled day of debate and the Senate had already done pre-study. What was a problem was the fact that they proposed two – two! – supply bills worth tens of billions of dollars and rammed them through both houses at all stages with zero debate and zero scrutiny, because the House leaders came to an agreement on them. And while absolutely everyone fell all over themselves to talk about how great it was that the parties all came together to ensure that they acted responsibly in suspending parliament (though I think it was premature), the business of supply is the whole gods damned purpose of Parliament. Instead of it being taken seriously, they rolled over on it, and rammed it through, along with another bill to give the government any additional spending authority it needs without parliamentary oversight for the duration of the suspension. Oh, but don’t worry – they’ve ensured that the Auditor General will keep an eye on things after the money has already been spent. Good job on ensuring that the barn door closes after the horses bolt, guys. You’ve totally got the whole gods damned point of Parliament down pat. There were far better options than a wholesale suspension and abrogation of the fundamental responsibility of parliamentarians, but that’s where we are. You get the slowest of slow claps for this particular move.
Seriously, C-10, C-11, and C-12 aren’t even up on LegisInfo yet, and they’ve all been adopted at all stages.
From then on, it was one after another. Chrystia Freeland and several ministers held a press conference to announce further measures, such as cautioning against all foreign travel, news that they were going to ensure that all international travellers were routed through a smaller number of airports in order to maximize the available resources of CBSA, and the suspension of cruise ship season. Then Justin Trudeau held a presser from outside of Rideau Cottage to update his own situation and to reiterate some of the same messages that were just delivered. And then Bill Morneau, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, and the Superintendent of Financial Institutions held a joint press conference to talk about immediate economic stimulus – including another surprise fifty-point basis cut from the key interest rate – and the promise of yet more fiscal measures to come next week (because they are likely operating flat out and need the weekend to pull the details together). Oh, and the budget date has been postponed until sometime after Parliament resumes, whenever that may be.
“Travellers become less honest about where they’ve been” when borders are closed, which affects contact tracing. https://t.co/k63PDAugKL
Meanwhile, Colby Cosh says that while we’re still awaiting the full impact of COVID-19, the rapid pace of technological development means that this could be the last major global pandemic. Chris Selley cautions about feeling too smug about our healthcare system under the current circumstances. Kevin Carmichael walks through some of the fiscal and monetary measures announced today, and offers thanks to the Bank of Canada for being the rock that Morneau and Trudeau have not been. Heather Scoffield is impressed by the coordination between Morneau, the Bank of Canada and OSFI in staving off “economic hibernation,” and hopes for similar cooperation in combatting COVID-19. Economists Armine Yalnizyan and Jennifer Robson have some suggestions for how to help workers affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Here’s a thread from Kevin Milligan on the use of EDC and BDC in these kinds of situation.
The pace of COVID-19 news was relentless yesterday, culminating in the news that Sophie Grégoire Trudeau had tested positive for the virus following her trip to the UK, and that the prime minister would be isolated for the next two weeks as a result. He’d already announced earlier in the day that he was self-isolating while his wife was undergoing testing, and that he would be working from home, but it also meant the cancellation of the First Ministers Meeting – to be held later today by phone – and the indefinite postponement of said first ministers meeting with Indigenous leaders. Not to be outdone, Jagmeet Singh also announced that he was self-isolating because he was feeling “unwell.” And while more events get cancelled, Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole have stated they will suspend public campaign activities for the time being (though one suspects that this will simply escalate into a shitpost war online as they battle for votes in that space).
The big question now is whether or not Parliament will suspend for the coming weeks, and there are moves afoot – the Senate has been recalled to sit tomorrow (they usually don’t sit Fridays), and the talk is that the Commons will pass the New NAFTA tomorrow morning, and send it to the Senate immediately for passage so that if there is a decision to suspend, that will be out of the way. And it should be noted that the Senate did to pre-study on the bill while it was still in the Commons, so that will expedite the passage in the Senate, provided that twelve different senators don’t feel the need to give useless Second Reading speeches (because that’s a real danger these days).
The Senate is taking preventative measures around COVID-19. Hearing that the House of Commons may adopt similar measures tomorrow. #SenCA#cdnpolipic.twitter.com/pL3FRy6sc2
Once again, Maclean’s has resources on symptoms and how to get tested.
Meanwhile, Paul Wells gives a decent reading of the year to date, and makes the case that First Ministers’ meetings are pretty useless these days so the cancellation of this one is not a big loss. Heather Scoffield ensures that you know where to place the blame for the markets crashing and wiping out retirement savings. And here’s infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch on what we can expect over the next two weeks.
After news that the prime minister was in self-isolation after his wife was sick, and Jagmeet Singh also stated that he was self-isolating after feeling “unwell,” the business of parliament carried on. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he gave his best wishes to the PM — for which he got applause — and then demanded more “decisive action” and claimed that passengers arriving from Italy were not screened, ignoring the pertinent information that everyone was screened before they were allowed to board. Chrystia Freeland addressed all Canadians to trust in the advice of medical experts, that things will get worse for it gets better, and that we are well prepared. Scheer raised potential shortages around equipment like ventilators, to which Freeland stated that the federal government was leading a bulk national procurement effort and they were working together with provinces and territories. Scheer lamented the lack of mandatory screening, quarantines or travel restrictions and demanded the evidence for those decisions. Freeland gave a bromide about our public health system, and assured him that enhanced measures were in place, and that they were following the advice of science. Alain Rayes demanded a plan to prevent large public gatherings, and Freeland repeated her first assurance for all Canadians in French. Rayes then demanded more “concrete measures” for workers who lose their jobs as a result of the outbreak, and Freeland read the changes to EI and promise for new measures as necessary. Christine Normandin led off for the Bloc, and after wishing the PM well, she demanded more resources for border screenings, for which Freeland addressed the PM’s situation, that he wasn’t sick but waiting for his wife’s results. Normandin again demanded “real” screening measures, and Freeland again read that they were following all public health advice. Peter Julian led off for the NDP, and again demanded that every worker who has to self-quarantine gets financial resort, to which Freeland reiterated the $1 billion COVID-19 package and that they were rolling out new measures. Rachel Blaney repeated the question with added condescension, to which Freeland calmly repeated the same response.
Wednesday, caucus day, and while all of the leaders were present, the benches were not nearly as full as they usually are on caucus day. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he immediately blamed Justin Trudeau for the weak economic growth figure, listing a bunch of disingenuous items that counted as “proof.” Trudeau stood up to talk about investing in Canadians, lifting a million people out of poverty while having the strongest balance sheet in the G7. Scheer listed a bunch of things that the government spent on what were framed in a disingenuous way, to which Trudeau reiterated his previous points. Scheer listed yet more false points about Harper’s record versus this one, before demanding tax cuts and the elimination of “red tape,” and Trudeau got a bit indignant in defending the Canada Child Benefit while calling out Scheer for petty politics. Scheer raised the Berskshire Hathaway pullout from the Quebec LNG plan, to which Trudeau reminded him that the very same company just invested in a wind farm in Alberta. Scheer changed to French to then accuse him of striking a secret deal with the Bloc go keep them from re-opening the Double Hyphen Affair in committee, to which Trudeau stated that he defended jobs while standing up for the legal system. Yves-François Blanchet stood up for the Bloc, and stated that they blocked the committee study to prevent another round of people screaming that all Quebeckers were corrupt, before he switched to COVID-19 measures, to which Trudeau reminded him that they have been taking all measures that their scientific advisors stated. Blanchet demanded more border restrictions, daily press briefings and more purchasing power for seniors, and Trudeau reiterated his reassurances. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, worrying about workers who can’t access EI, and Trudeau assured him that they are working on additional measures. Singh repeated the demand, and Trudeau reiterated that they would be there for all Canadians.
That “$200 from insolvency” talking point that keeps getting repeated is false. See @JenniferRobson8’s analysis of why it’s wrong. #QP#cdnpoli
Yesterday evening, Seamus O’Regan tweeted that after a persistent head cold, he went to his doctor and was self-isolating until he got the results of the COVID-19 test that he got. Around the same time, former Conservative Cabinet minister (and sexting blackmail victim) Tony Clement was on Power & Politics saying that it may be time to think about taking Parliament “digital,” and holding debates and votes remotely for the duration. Yeah, that’s a big nope.
I get that being a politician is a tactile business, and there are concerns that the House of Commons is essentially one big cruise ship, however Parliament needs to happen face-to-face. It’s inconceivable that it could be done remotely because so many of the needed conversations happen off-camera and on the sidelines. That can’t be replicated by everyone working remotely. Should they take additional precautions? Sure – additional hand-washing, practicing social distancing when they take meetings, and so on, but that’s not exactly a big hardship. And it’s not like there aren’t a number of constituency weeks coming up for MPs to hunker down if they need to, and even though it may be a hung parliament, there are more than enough provisions for members from different parties to “pair” absences so that there are no accidental losses of confidence in the meantime (because as much as the Conservatives claim they want an early election, this is largely bravado as their party organization is in chaos and they are in no shape for it, not to mention that neither the Bloc nor the NDP want one either, and they have the votes that count).
The bigger danger, however is contagion – not of the virus, but of the notion that MPs can “work remotely,” which many have been pushing for in the ongoing effort to make Parliament more “family friendly.” But that way lies madness – MPs won’t bother to leave their constituencies, believing they can do more good there (even though constituency work is actually not part of their job description), and without those sideline conversations, it will polarize the environment even more than it already is. Recall how collegiality was shattered after evening sittings were ended and MPs no longer ate dinner together – this would make it that much worse, if they no longer have to look one another in the eye or cross paths. This nonsense needs to be quashed here and now. You can’t Skype Parliament.
Tuesday, and while Justin Trudeau was present today, both Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh were away for whatever the reason. Gérard Deltell led off in French, worrying about the deficit and the loss of jobs in the energy sector, and the general direction of the economy. Trudeau started that they did the work of things like poverty reduction, but they knew to leave room for situations like COVID-19. Deltell worried that they spent the cupboard bare, to which Trudeau reminded him that the Conservatives cut services to veterans and other vulnerable groups while his government has room to manoeuvre. Pierre Poilievre took over in English and listed a number of false metrics around our economy and the state of the deficit, to which Trudeau repeated his answer. Poilievre listed some cherry-picked facts about Conservative budgets, and Trudeau noted that the Conservatives neglected to invest in Canadians. Poilievre then listed a number of disingenuously framed investments by the current government, and Trudeau listed the ways in which Conservatives cut services for Canadians. Yves-François Blanchet was up for the Bloc, and he worried about poor seniors, to which Trudeau listed the measures that his government has taken to date. Blanchet repeated his demand to increase seniors’ purchasing power, and Trudeau reiterated that they have taken plenty of measures. Peter Julian led for the NDP, and he worried about measures for vulnerable workers in the gig economy, to which Trudeau assured him that they would be announcing new measures. Jenny Kwan forcefully read a demand to delay cruise season, to which Trudeau stated that they were working with provinces and sectors to support them in difficult times.
Comparing unemployment metrics to other countries is not an apples-to-apples comparison. #QP
Monday, and major news happening regarding the country’s economic fortunes, but most of the party leaders were absent — Justin Trudeau returning from an event in Toronto, and Andrew Scheer elsewhere. That left Leona Alleslev go lead off, worrying that the country was hurtling toward recession as the stock market crashes before COVID-19. Chrystia Freeland assured her that the government had the fiscal firepower to withstand any downturn and would have measures to help people affected by the virus. Alleslev falsely stated that the economy was grinding to a halt, and concern trolled about Berkshire Hathaway pulling out of a Quebec LNG project, to which Freeland assured her that the government supports the resource sector and that planned projects and those under construction were up from the previous year. Alleslev tried one more time to rail about the state of the economy, and with a very measured tone, Freeland warned her against cheap partisan shots. Gérard Deltell stood up next to repeat the question about the Quebec LNG project, and Freeland repeated that they supported resource projects and there was record private sector investment. Deltell tried again, tying in the rail blockades, but Freeland was undaunted and repeated her response. Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, and he demanded compensation for the “collateral victims” of the railway crisis, to which a Freeland read that while the blockades did cause problems, they needed to find a lasting solution to the problem through dialogue, and that’s what they’ve been doing. Therrien demanded the government take harder actions at the border regarding COVID-19, to which Freeland explained that there is a global approach, and that they were doing everything in their power to protect Canadians. Jagmeet Singh was up next and demanded help for a Canadians who need to self-isolate, to which Freeland listed EI measures they have taken, and that they are preparing further measures. Singh then falsely claimed that the government cut healthcare to provinces, for which Freeland regaled the House with her visit to Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto, and that they were coordinating bulk supply purchases with the provinces.
Oil prices started plummeting Sunday night as a price war opened up in the midst of declining demand due to the COVID-19 outbreak, and this is going to have a huge impact in Canada, not only with Alberta and Saskatchewan, but most especially with Newfoundland and Labrador, whose government relies very heavily on resource revenues. Add to that, this is going to put even more pressure on Bill Morneau and the federal government when it comes to how to deal with reforming fiscal stabilization in the upcoming budget, particularly if it’s also going to mean any kind of rebate for previous years’ stabilization (as Jason Kenney in particular has been demanding, under the misleading term of “equalization rebate,” even though it’s no such thing).
This may also touch off a new round of blaming Justin Trudeau for Alberta’s woes, when the oil prices are going to make things so, so much more painful for the province as they budgeted a ludicrously high amount for oil revenues. One might suggest that it would be a good impetus for the province (and the federal government) to redouble efforts toward diversification and a “just transition” away from the oil economy in that province, because the hopes for “just one more boom” get even further away, or even for the province to finally reform the revenue side of its equation and finally implement a modest sales tax that would stabilize its finances – but I have a feeling that Kenney won’t even contemplate those things. Blaming Trudeau is too easy, and lying to the public is so much easier.
Translation: There was not a single day between the release of Budget 2019 and Budget 2020 where the market settlement price for 2022-23 oil measured in Canadian dollars was within $10/bbl of the forecast in Budget 2019. That forecast was raised in #ableg Budget 2020.
Speaking of lying to the public, as certain other political figures fill the op-ed pages with a bunch of bullshit about how Alberta is “treated like a colony” as the Buffalo Declaration did (and no, I won’t link to the egregious op-ed in question), here is a great thread from professor Melanee Thomas as to why that kind of comparison is not only wrong, but wrong to the point of being actively racist.
