The first Monday of the new session, the Prime Minister was elsewhere, leaving his deputy in his place. Candice Bergen led off for the Conservatives, worrying about people who can’t get rapid at-home COVID tests. Chrystia Freeland said that they too want rapid tests, but it’s important that we have independent regulators, because lives depend on it. Bergen said this was an example of this being too little, too late, but Freeland insisted that the government would do whatever it takes to help Canadians. Bergen raised the spectre of the WE Imbroglio, and lost time in helping people, to which Freeland chided that they were hard at work the whole time, and listed measures. Gérard Deltell was up next to accuse the government of attacking Quebec in the face of the pandemic, and Freeland insisted that there was no dispute and that they we working together with the government of Quebec. Deltell got huffy in his response, insisting that Trudeau insulted the premier, and Freeland soared to new rhetorical heights about the importance of working together. Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, accusing the government of “withholding Quebeckers’ money” and demanded new health transfers, to which Freeland assured him that they did increase transfers, on top of the $19 billion Safe Restart plan. Therrien was not amused, and demanded higher transfers, to which Freeland insisted that they were all working together. Jagmeet Singh was up for the NDP, and in French, he demanded a commitment to introducing a wealth tax, to which Freeland said that they did mention in the Throne Speech, they did mention new taxes. Singh repeated the question in English, and Freeland was more specific in talk of taxing web giants and stock options.
Tag Archives: Fisheries
Roundup: The importance of automatic filing
The Throne Speech commitment about automatic tax filings continues to make waves, particularly because it’s such an important component about ensuring that government benefits go to those who need them, and how it’s not happening currently. With that in mind, here’s Dr. Jennifer Robson with some additional context as to why this is a problem and why it’s a good thing the government is finally proposing to act on it.
In a paper out now in @canpublicpolicy, @saulschwartz & I estimate the share of Canadians who don't file a tax return, describe who they are and add up the benefits left on the table by non-filers. This builds on earlier work, i.e. this for @prospercan: https://t.co/kOUN3MvM6S pic.twitter.com/hhsw0YArtY
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) September 27, 2020
StatCan uses tax data to fill in income values in most surveys now. We deem someone a non-filer if that matching fails. There will be error (person filed but gave bad matching info on the survey; no SIN found so no match possible). Note: if no SIN, how likely is it they file?
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) September 27, 2020
Non-filing is more frequent for people below the poverty line. pic.twitter.com/PY5yAiFWPm
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) September 27, 2020
Next, we look at the $ values of cash benefits that non-filers would be missing. Note: we look at just 3 groups of benefits (GST credit, child credits, CWB) and using the 2015 benefit values. These benefits have increased in value since (esp child benefits). pic.twitter.com/nOhjV6SYd4
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) September 27, 2020
But even small amounts add up. We give a conservative estimate of $1.7B in benefits unpaid due to non-filing. We also talk about potential implications for accuracy of admin data that sets poverty lines, models policy impacts, etc..
— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) September 27, 2020
If $4,200 isn't enough to induce someone to file, then maybe we have a broader problem that information alone isn't going to fix.
Anyway, here's a link to the full paper: https://t.co/Z58uYu7BTQ— Dr. J Robson (@JenniferRobson8) September 27, 2020
QP: Back in action, but feeling hollow
The first QP of the new session is now officially a hybrid one, with a smaller number of MPs in the Chamber while the rest were on Zoom — a parliamentary abomination. Candice Bergen led off, and she demanded rapid testing options, to which Justin Trudeau took up a script to list what the federal government has done to support testing and procurement. Bergen accused a Trudeau of lacking any plans in his Throne Speech and called the last five weeks a waste of time. Trudeau asserted that the pandemic was the greatest challenge in a generation and it exposed problems in our society that they need to address. Bergen listed there people she claimed the Speech “left behind,” and Trudeau listed the measures that are helping Canadians. Gérard Deltell repeated the Québec premier’s claim that the Speech interfered in provincial jurisdiction, to which Trudeau reminded him that the premier didn’t mind when the federal government deployed the army to help Québec’s long-term care facilities. Deltell tried again, and Trudeau reminded him that they need to work together during the crisis to restart the economy. Alain Therrien was up for the NDP to carry on the accusation of interference and to demand more health transfers, to which Trudeau reminded him that they already increased transfers and more billions went out for the Safe Restart Agreement. Therrien tried again, and got the same answer. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, and in French demanded a plan for the second wave, to which Trudeau stated that they were working with the provinces to accelerate the testing process, and that they were helping seniors, families, students, and small businesses. Singh repeated his question in English, and Trudeau repeated his answer in English.
Roundup: Turner and what has changed since
Former prime minister John Turner passed away over the weekend at age 91, and while you can read about his life here and here, for example, there were a couple of things I wanted to mention about his time in office. Thanks to the problems with the leadership selection processes in this country, Turner didn’t have a seat when he won the Liberal leadership and was sworn in as prime minister. He was only in office for eleven weeks, never meeting the House of Commons, and was defeated in an election shortly thereafter, though he did win a seat and stayed on as leader of the opposition for six years. Most of the tributes to him this weekend have not talked about his reputation for being “handsy,” barring the famous bottom-patting incident with party president Iona Campagnolo, though Susan Delacourt says that he was respectful and wasn’t patronizing to women reporters, who were still rare in the day.
What I think is most interesting, however, was that Turner fought an election in 1988 on the question of free trade, and Turner was bitterly opposed, saying that this would turn Canada into a colony of the United States, and that there would only be doom ahead. The then-Progressive Conservatives were the pro-trade party, and won the day with a majority parliament. Here we are a little over thirty years later, and the situations have reversed themselves – now it’s the Liberals who are champions of free trade and open markets, while the modern iteration of the Conservatives are turning into protectionists who are pushing a “Canada First” plan. It’s amazing how things can change so much in that long (particularly when parties abandon ideology for the sake of populism).
I also am curious how they plan to conduct a state funeral for Turner given the current pandemic restrictions. One supposes that they could have him lie in state within a space like the Sir John A Macdonald building on Parliament Hill, and that the funeral will be televised with a lot of people in masks, but it will no doubt be a challenge for all involved.
Roundup: Armed intruder at Rideau Hall
The big excitement for the day was that there was an Incident at Rideau Hall first thing in the morning, as a Canadian Forces member, who was armed, crashed his truck through the gates of the compound and headed over to Rideau Hall on foot, where he was then apprehended by RCMP in what sounds like a two-hour “dialogue.” Apparently he wanted to “send a message” to the prime minister – who wasn’t at home at nearby Rideau Cottage at the time, nor was the Governor General in Rideau Hall (but if you recall, she has consistently refused to move into the residence there, preferring to stay at Rideau Gate). He was arrested without incident, and has apparently made online posts about a supposed COVID-19 conspiracy theory – and it comes just a day after anti-lockdown protests were happening on Parliament Hill, featuring a former has-been wannabe party leader who shall not be named, and some of the images seen on the Hill included those of Trudeau being hanged, while others touted these kinds of COVID conspiracies. So that’s fun.
Arrived at Rideau Hall, where a police investigation is underway. RCMP says armed man able to enter grounds but was arrested shortly after. You can see a bent gate and debris beyond the gate #cdnpoli pic.twitter.com/1m6QeDxIwU
— Cormac Mac Sweeney (@cmaconthehill) July 2, 2020
https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1278788951885721602
Meanwhile, over in Alberta, the rhetoric about the plan to hold a referendum on equalization rolls along, so here is political scientist Melanee Thomas to spill some tea about just exactly what they are talking about, and why the arguments aren’t as clever as they think they are.
Confused about equalization?
Why is it so controversial in #abpoli #ableg when it's by far the SMALLEST transfer the federal government sends provinces?
This book will help: https://t.co/KgIZJTjGOp
— Melanee Thomas (@MelaneeLThomas) July 2, 2020
Skeptical? Let me ask you a few questions.
Do you think Canadians should have access to comparable services no matter where they live?
It no, then equalization is moot. But you'd be in the minority. Most think this is a good principle.
— Melanee Thomas (@MelaneeLThomas) July 2, 2020
Note that Australia does that differently: most of the details of big programs are tasked to the federal government. It makes them very strong, and their state governments much weaker.
I don't think Canadians have appetite for THAT many constitutional changes.
— Melanee Thomas (@MelaneeLThomas) July 2, 2020
Germany did that second opinion for a long time. Canada never has.
We used that first option, and we follow the idea that provinces get equalization if they're using their fiscal capacity (read: they're taxing people) but still falling short.
— Melanee Thomas (@MelaneeLThomas) July 2, 2020
So, say a province is falling short. The question to ask is about fiscal capacity? What is it? Are they using it?
And this is where #abpoli #ableg has a problem: the Alberta Tax Advantage.
We have loads of fiscal capacity. We choose not to use it
— Melanee Thomas (@MelaneeLThomas) July 2, 2020
Back before #COVID19, #abpoli #ableg's own budget documents said if we were using our fiscal capacity like other provinces we'd have $14+ billion more (read: no deficit, at least at that point)https://t.co/TgAxLMfLh3
— Melanee Thomas (@MelaneeLThomas) July 2, 2020
Here's the problem: some talk about a referendum on this to "force" the feds to negotiate.
That's not who I'd look at. I'd look at the other provinces.
Why would they agree to change this when they do hard work raising $$ that we refuse to do in Alberta?
— Melanee Thomas (@MelaneeLThomas) July 2, 2020
Let me put this another way.
Last year, I spent 4 months working in Quebec as a visiting scholar. It has a stipend, and in was taxed at Quebec's rates while I was there.
But because I live in Alberta, those taxes were returned to me when I filed my 2019 taxes.
— Melanee Thomas (@MelaneeLThomas) July 2, 2020
The same holds for EVERY other province.
If Albertans opposed to equalization want to persuade that equalization is unfair, they have to credibly claim Albertans shouldn't pay PROVINCIAL taxes like everyone else does.
I would tell us to STFU. I bet they will, too
— Melanee Thomas (@MelaneeLThomas) July 2, 2020
Roundup: Singh gets named and ejected
For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau announced something that was definitely not a reversal of previous assertions, stating that at fiscal “snapshot” would be released on July 8th – not an economic update, because it’s still too volatile to make any kind of projections, but a “snapshot” was just fine. And he had to explain that one was not like the other several times. He also announced new Health Canada approvals for manufacturers of testing materials and ventilators, and that they had extended a Fish and Seafood Opportunities Fund, and that Parks Canada would be gradually reopening camp sites, because some masochists in the country apparently can’t wait to go camping. During the Q&A, Trudeau pushed back over the Bloc’s assertion that he is “acting like a king,” saying that when opposition leaders complain that the prime minister acts like it’s a dictatorship when they don’t get their way undermines the strength of our democracy – and he’s not entirely wrong there, but the fact that he has been reluctant to fully recall parliament and hiding behind a deal he made with the NDP to keep it that way doesn’t do him any favours.
The coming confidence vote on the Estimates wasn’t going to the drama that some thought it might because the NDP had pretty much already pledged support after Jagmeet Singh walked back his tough talk on the CERB extension (for which he is still undeservedly taking credit), and lo, the Estimates did pass. But the drama wound up being with Jagmeet Singh, who had tried to move a unanimous motion about systemic racism in the RCMP, which was blocked by the Bloc, to which Singh called the Bloc’s House Leader a racist, and when called on it, admitted that he did so and refused to apologise for it. This created some drama, the Speaker had to be recalled (because the Commons had already resolved into Committee of the Whole), and Singh was named and forced to leave for unparliamentary behaviour. Normally when this happens – which is extremely rarely – said MP would head out to the microphone stand in the Foyer to say their piece, which is precisely why Speakers are reluctant to name MPs. Because of the pandemic, Singh couldn’t do that, and instead called a 5 PM press conference – guaranteed coverage on the 5 o’clock political shows – and repeated his calling the Bloc House Leader a racist, but in such a way that immediately a lot of voices started chirping that he made it sound like he was taking license to call anyone who disagrees with him a racist (which isn’t helpful guys, and you know it).
For the record, here is his motion pic.twitter.com/gKqIU0lLww
— Anthony Salloum (He/Him) (@vasalloum) June 17, 2020
Of course, this also got the whole anti-civility gang on social media riled up, and yelling about why Singh became the story and not the Bloc. But that’s the thing about decorum – Singh made himself the spectacle, so that’s where the attention became, rather than him calling a press conference after the motion was denied and calling the Bloc to account at that point. (The Bloc, incidentally, defended their move by saying that the public safety committee was already studying the issue and that they should wait for their report). But seriously, decorum rules exist for a reason in Parliament, and it’s fairly inherent in the name, which is derived from the Old French parlement, meaning speaking or conference. Not becoming the spectacle would have probably put more pressure on the Bloc, but that isn’t how this played out, and because Singh repeated his accusation of racism at the press conference, where he doesn’t have parliamentary immunity, this could turn into a lawsuit, which will become an even bigger distraction from the point he was trying to make.
A REMINDER OF THE LAST TIME A MP WAS CALLED A RACIST IN THE HOUSE: pic.twitter.com/rk5ORrZBxi
— RealChangeBot (@RealChangeBot) June 17, 2020
Roundup: Pearl-clutching over fraud
While he didn’t show up at the “virtual” special committee yesterday, prime minister Justin Trudeau nevertheless held his daily presser, during which he announced that they were creating a $470 million programme to support fish harvesters, which would include grants for those businesses who needed a bridge, and EI application rules for those who would have to miss the season because it wasn’t safe. As well, there was another $100 million for an agriculture and food solutions programme through Farm Credit Canada. Trudeau also noted the upcoming long weekend, and said that as of June 1st, some national parks and historical sites would be re-opened to the public – provided the province they are in would allow it – and that there were new restrictions for pleasure craft, with the intention that they not be allowed to head to places where they could infect local populations, particularly in the North.
Meanwhile, the breathless pearl-clutching fraudulent CERB claimants continues unabated, as the National Post procured yet another government documents that allegedly says to grant it even to people who have quit their jobs or been fired with cause, which shouldn’t be allowed. But as Trudeau stated under questions after his presser, the goal was to ensure rapid delivery for the 99 percent of people who were claiming this benefit for legitimate reasons, and that if they had insisted on more robust checks at the beginning of the process, the money still wouldn’t be flowing. This of course hasn’t stopped some of the usual suspects from tweeting bullshit about how the programme is being abused, with zero evidence and using examples that could not actually work. But let’s create a moral panic about it.
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1260960640480407552
So the CRA should have had a *much, much* larger staff in place, just in case they were needed to examine a large number of cases in real time?
I thought you guys were in favour of small government?
Or was it just petty, mean-minded government, regardless of size? https://t.co/fgBaaYG9mg
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) May 14, 2020
In hindsight, I should have called horseshit.
Live and learn.— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) May 14, 2020
We also had some observers fanning themselves and reaching for their fainting couches when Liberal MP Wayne Easter, who chairs the finance committee, remarked to Bill Morneau at yesterday’s finance committee meeting, that he wanted a stronger statement from the government that they were going to deal with fraudulent cases. Imagine – an experienced backbencher taking a tough tone with his own party in government! Suffice to say, the message from this government has consistently been that if there is misconduct, it will be caught and dealt with at the appropriate time (and now is not that time). I’m not sure how much more explicit they can actually get, but maybe that’s just me.
Roundup: No to herd immunity
For his Saturday presser, Justin Trudeau was back to his weekend uniform – tieless, collar unbuttoned, under a sweater and blazer with jeans. He started off talking about last night’s virtual vigil for Nova Scotia, then recapped the programmes they launched during the week before talking about the $62.5 million the government would spend to help the fish and seafood processing industry cope with the pandemic, both in terms of capacity, protective equipment and ensuring more physical distancing in workspaces. During the Q&A, there was more talk of health transfers and this bizarre notion that somehow the federal government could put long-term care facilities “under the Canada Health Act” (erm, I don’t think the Act works the way you think it does, guys), Trudeau stated once again that he has no intention of interfering in areas of provincial jurisdiction. Let that sink in. No. Intention. So stop asking him to “take over” things like healthcare and rents. Provinces exist. Sections 91 and 92 of the Constitution Act, 1867 exist. These are real things and he can’t just wave a wand and suddenly take over. Jurisdiction doesn’t work like that. Stop asking. Trudeau also said that he was aware of the Correctional Investigator’s report on the state of federal prisons in this pandemic era, where anyone who is sick is being sent to solitary confinement (and potential human rights abuses), but he continued to claim that they were taking “strong measures.” The problem is that nobody can seem to show any evidence of said measures. (Trudeau mentioned there wouldn’t be any pressers today, so don’t look for one).
During the ministerial briefing, Dr. Theresa Tam also shot down this notion of herd immunity and “immunity passes” that keep being floated around after Chile is piloting them, in part because we simply don’t have enough information about the virus to know whether or not someone can be re-infected once they’ve had it, or how long any protection from anti-bodies may last, and herd immunity means to continually expose greater numbers to the infection, which could still overwhelm our health capacity, and no, younger people aren’t really less susceptible as has been suggested – they can still get very sick from it, even if the mortality rate is lower for younger people. It means there are no easy fixes to reopening the economy, as much as we may hope for one.
QP: Keeping some fiscal room
Tuesday, and while Justin Trudeau was present today, both Andrew Scheer and Jagmeet Singh were away for whatever the reason. Gérard Deltell led off in French, worrying about the deficit and the loss of jobs in the energy sector, and the general direction of the economy. Trudeau started that they did the work of things like poverty reduction, but they knew to leave room for situations like COVID-19. Deltell worried that they spent the cupboard bare, to which Trudeau reminded him that the Conservatives cut services to veterans and other vulnerable groups while his government has room to manoeuvre. Pierre Poilievre took over in English and listed a number of false metrics around our economy and the state of the deficit, to which Trudeau repeated his answer. Poilievre listed some cherry-picked facts about Conservative budgets, and Trudeau noted that the Conservatives neglected to invest in Canadians. Poilievre then listed a number of disingenuously framed investments by the current government, and Trudeau listed the ways in which Conservatives cut services for Canadians. Yves-François Blanchet was up for the Bloc, and he worried about poor seniors, to which Trudeau listed the measures that his government has taken to date. Blanchet repeated his demand to increase seniors’ purchasing power, and Trudeau reiterated that they have taken plenty of measures. Peter Julian led for the NDP, and he worried about measures for vulnerable workers in the gig economy, to which Trudeau assured him that they would be announcing new measures. Jenny Kwan forcefully read a demand to delay cruise season, to which Trudeau stated that they were working with provinces and sectors to support them in difficult times.
Comparing unemployment metrics to other countries is not an apples-to-apples comparison. #QP
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) March 10, 2020
Roundup: An abortion bill to position around
The Conservatives’ abortion legislation problem has come home to roost early in the new parliament as MP Cathay Wagantall tabled a bill to ban sex-selective abortions, under the (bullshit) excuse that it reflects Canada’s commitment to gender equality. And because she’s 31 on the order of precedence for private members’ business, this will come up likely late spring or early fall. (Private members’ business is determined by lottery, and arrives on the Order Paper in batches of 30). And all eyes are on Andrew Scheer, who stated during the election that he would vote against any measures to attempt to re-open the abortion debate.
Why does this matter? Because the list of approved candidates for the Conservative leadership closed last night, and social conservatives have played kingmaker in both the last federal leadership contest, as well as the last Ontario one, which was done under the same rules. Already we’re seeing positioning among candidates, such as Erin O’Toole criticizing Peter MacKay for saying he would whip his Cabinet to vote against such a bill, saying that he would never whip anyone, Cabinet or backbench, on “moral issues.” It’s a completely transparent ploy – O’Toole is trying to ensure that he gets second-ballot support from the social conservatives when their preferred no-hope candidates get dropped off of the ranked preferential ballot. That’s how Andrew Scheer won, and it’s how Doug Ford won.
Meanwhile, it looks like it’ll be seven entrants in the race, though some approvals may yet be pending. Of those seven, three qualify as social conservatives, so the “frontrunners” like MacKay, O’Toole and maybe Marilyn Gladu will want the second and third votes from those no-hopers in the hopes of pushing them over the top. So this dynamic is very present in the leadership race, as Wagantall has put it on the table for them to debate around her.