Roundup: The PM is staying put this year

It is the National Day for Truth and Reconciliation, otherwise known as “Orange Shirt Day,” after Phyllis Jack Webstad told the story about going to residential school with a new orange shirt that she was so proud of, and was forced to remove it upon arrival, which became a symbol of her forced assimilation that the school enforced. Something to reflect on over the day.

It also sounds like the prime minister has learned his lesson about his visibility, and whereas his intention last year was to step back and not make it about himself, he spent the day heading to Tofino for a weekend off with his family, which became a minor scandal. So today he’ll be attending ceremonies and events both in the Niagara Region, as well as here in Ottawa, and conspicuously not taking off with his family.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 218:

Russia is claiming to recognise the “independence” of two of the regions in Ukraine subjected to sham referendums this past week, as a prelude to annexation. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, in response, has made a direct appeal to Russians that they don’t have to die in Ukraine, like 58,000 have so far, and called on ethnic minorities in Russia to resist mobilization. Further north to those regions, Ukrainian forces have nearly encircled the city of Lyman, and are preparing to trap Russian forces therein. One of Zelenskyy’s advisors says that the sham referendums change nothing, and that they will liberate those territories, with military force if necessary. Meanwhile, Ukrainian children are trapped in Russian camps after promoting them as a summer break for children in occupied territories, so that’s going well.

https://twitter.com/MarkHamill/status/1575568979069837312

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Roundup: Demanding LNG with someone else’s money

While the federal Conservatives continue to promote the fantasy notion that Canada can somehow supply Europe and Japan with LNG to displace Russian supply—something that was never going to happen because of the timelines for projects to be built and that they need to be in operation to make their money back—under the notion that Ottawa needs to “get out of the way,” again ignoring that there has been no market case for it, Jason Kenney is going one step further and demanding that the federal government to build LNG export infrastructure. Which is odd because the Conservatives howled with outrage when the federal government nationalized the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline in order to sufficiently de-risk it for it to complete construction. If there’s no market case, why not get the federal government to do it?

But let’s also remember that the proposed Kitimat LNG facility on the West Coast, fully permitted and approved, is not being built, because there is no market case. Hence why Andrew Leach is calling out Kenney’s nonsense below, particularly the fact that Kenney is calling on the federal government to spend their money rather than Kenney spending his province’s own money. You know, like he did with Keystone XL, and whoops, lost billions because he made a bad bet and the American administration didn’t restore its permits. Funny that.

 

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 217:

UN human rights investigators have found that Russia has been violating international law when it comes to the treatment of prisoners of war during the invasion of Ukraine, which shouldn’t surprise anyone at this point. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has also asked for Canadian help in ridding his country of mines left behind by Russian forces. Meanwhile, there are reports that Russian conscription officers are at borders trying to intercept would-be conscripts from fleeing the country.

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Roundup: The edgy reporting on the state of the monarchy

It wasn’t unexpected, but Canadian media has decided to go full-on concern trolling for the republican cause while the world mourns the passing of the Queen. There is no end to the polls about Canadians’ feelings about the “British” monarchy (oblivious to the fact that we are under the Canadian monarchy, which is separate and distinct), or stories about Indigenous people and their relationship with the Crown, but they seem to entirely lack the nuances of the treaty relationship and the failure of the Queen’s Canadian government to properly uphold those treaties, and instead putting forward a narrative that the Crown was directly responsible for the cultural genocide of residential schools. There are stories aplenty of some of the Realms who are considering abandoning the monarchy in favour of republicanism, as Barbados just did, but some can’t seem to distinguish between the Commonwealth (a voluntary organisation mostly made up of former British colonial holdings, but has since expanded to include countries with no such colonial ties) and the Realms (the fifteen countries for whom the Queen served as monarch), and it makes the questions very awkward if they really don’t know what they’re asking (looking at you, Power & Politics). And then there are the stories, largely American, which can’t get the basics right about the funding of the monarchy, or that taxpayer dollars are paying for the Queen’s funeral (as though American taxpayer dollars don’t pay for their presidents’ state funerals, or for their presidential libraries/personality shines).

It’s predictable, and it’s utterly provincial. I’m sure plenty of them think they’re being edgy, or getting to the real hard news of the day, but it’s mostly coming off as ill-informed, devoid of proper context, and in some cases, without much in the way of constitutional reality. I wish I could say we should expect better, but sadly, it’s about exactly what we can expect form our media outlets.

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 203:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy ventured out of Kyiv yesterday, visiting the strategic city of Izyum now that it has been liberated from the Russians. On the way back to Kyiv, however, his motorcade was involved a collision, though his injuries were said to be minor. One of the towns recently freed was Hrakove, which was largely levelled by Russians, and its original population of 1000 is now about 30. Meanwhile, nearly 5000 Ukrainian recruits have completed basic training in the UK from allied trainers, including Canadians. Ukraine is also seeking a more formalised treaty with Western partners to ensure its protection from future Russian invasion.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1570006459324284928

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Roundup: Poilievre plays victim around the media

We’re in the first week of Pierre Poilievre’s leadership, and he’s already sticking to his antagonistic playbook. He announced his leadership team first thing in the morning, with two deputies—Melissa Lantsman (a Jewish lesbian) and Tim Uppal (a Sikh) in order to inoculate himself against the usual cries that the party is racist and bigoted. A short while later, Quebec MP Alain Rayes announced he was leaving caucus and going to sit as an independent, because he didn’t like the direction Poilievre was going. (Cue everyone insisting that the party has “never been more united,” which is what they all say just before and after such an exit).

Fast-forward a couple of hours, and the federal government has announced their assistance package for low-income people dealing the effects of high inflation, and Poilievre calls a press conference to react. And the spectacle begins. David Akin, one of the reporters present, takes offence that Poilievre insists he won’t take questions (and he hasn’t since he was made leader), and starts shouting questions at him. And what does Poilievre do? Call Akin a “Liberal heckler” (because the pool camera can’t see Akin as he’s behind it), and a few hours later, sends out a fundraising appeal to his base that plays victim, that the media is out to get him, and that they’re all protecting Trudeau, and that you need to send him money to take on both Trudeau and the media. It’s gross, it undermines institutions, it undermines democracy, but he doesn’t care. It’s his game. And most of the media in this country have no idea how to react to it, and it’s going to be a real problem going forward.

https://twitter.com/glen_mcgregor/status/1569903207555497985

https://twitter.com/mattgurney/status/1569872613228400642

As for the government’s assistance package (dental care for low-income children under 12, enhanced rent support for low-income people, doubling the existing GST tax credit, which again, targets low-income households—and yes, the NDP are loudly taking credit for all of it), there are some good analysis threads from Lindsay Tedds and Jennifer Robson, and because these are targeted at the low end, they’re really unlikely to drive inflation, unlike say the cheques certain provinces are sending out to everyone, whether they need them or not. And Poilievre’s insistence that this will make things worse because they increase the deficit (the deficit, if there will even be one this year, isn’t driving inflation—global factors are), and then demands that the government not raise taxes. The only taxes going up is the luxury tax on boats, private planes, and luxury cars. The carbon price is not a tax, and rebates more to lower-income households than they spend. CPP and EI premiums are not taxes. Higher taxes actually fight inflation, lowering them makes it worse. The absolute economic illiteracy should be mind-numbing, until you realises that he gets his information from crypto-bros on YouTube, which tells you pretty much everything you need to know.

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1569770945895895042

Ukraine Dispatch, Day 202:

Russian troops are not only retreating from positions in the northeast of the country, they are also retreating in the south, and heading toward positions in Crimea. As these towns and cities are liberated, authorities are moving in to document war crimes against civilians. Of course, shelling does continue around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, and Russians are still hitting Kharkiv, even though they have been repelled from the area, which is being taken as a sign of desperation. Analysts believe this rapid retreat is the sign of a spent Russian military, their approach unsustainable,

https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1569704142167506944

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Roundup: The Pope arrives, and snubs Indigenous women

We’re on or about day one-hundred-and-fifty-two of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and wouldn’t you just know it, the day after Russia signed a deal to allow grain shipments out of Black Sea ports, they attacked Odessa, killing civilians. Because that’s who Russia is. They don’t respect their own cease-fires, and they act with impunity at every opportunity. (One might note that Justin Trudeau stated immediately that he didn’t trust Russia to uphold their end of the deal, and lo, was proven right). Elsewhere, Russian forces are blocking people trying to flee the Zaporizhzhia region, and they struck an apartment building in the port city of Mykolaiv.

Closer to home, the Pope’s visit to Canada has begun as part of the apology for residential schools, and both the Governor General and prime minister were in Edmonton to greet him. There are a lot of questions about how substantive this apology is really going to be, and whether he’s willing to do substantive things, like rescinding the Doctrine of Discovery that justified colonial behaviours. AFN national chief RoseAnne Archibald has been told she won’t be part of the welcoming ceremony at Maskwacis today, and she notes there are no women in leadership positions in the event (but this is the Catholic Church we’re talking about—they’re not exactly in favour of women in any leadership positions, or really of women in general). There has also been some irony noted that these events are being translated into Indigenous languages that were forbidden in residential schools, for what it’s worth.

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Roundup: Home for the summer

It is day one-hundred-and-twenty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and still no news out of Severodonetsk, but there is additional bombardment of the area including air strikes. The big news, however, was that the EU has granted the request to make Ukraine a candidate for membership—itself a years-long process that will require great reforms, most especially Ukraine cracking down on its problem of government corruption—but more than anything, this is a symbolic victory. It signals that Ukraine is moving more to the west, and away from Russia, and that further undermines Putin’s aims.

Closer to home, both the House of Commons and the Senate have risen for the summer, the latter being a problem because it was supposed to sit next week and they rammed through a bunch of legislation with little or no debate or scrutiny in order to make it happen. Below is a speech by Senator Paula Simons about one of those bills being expedited, and why that’s a problem (and you’d better believe I have an angry column about this coming out over the weekend).

Meanwhile, Aaron Wherry had an interview with the Commons’ Speaker, Anthony Rota, and frankly I wonder if we’re living in the same reality. Rota seems to think that his method of gentle chiding of MPs gets results, and that they change their behaviours when he hints that he knows who’s being disruptive (but won’t actually name and shame them). Except he doesn’t get results, and they continue to openly flout the rules, because they know that he’ll belatedly make some gentle comment that won’t actually do anything to enforce the rules that they broke, so it keeps happening again and again. But he thinks this is a good way, because things aren’t as bad as they were in the pre-2015 days before the Liberals largely stopped applauding and being as vociferous in their heckles. He’s not doing his job, plain and simple.

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QP: A focus on Islamophobia

While the prime minister was in town, meeting with the President of Chile, he did not venture to the Chamber for QP, though his deputy was present. Most of the other leaders were absent as well. Luc Berthold led off, worrying about rising prices, and wondered why the government was doing nothing about it. Chrystia Freeland responded with her prepared talking points about affordability measures like dental care. Berthold was incensed and roared that this was not good enough, especially with food banks under pressure. Freeland assured him that federal benefits like the Canada Child Benefit were indexed to inflation. Berthold was still incredulous, decried people being unable to eat enough, and demanded more from the government. Freeland shrugged off the yelling, stated that she took no lessons from the Conservatives, and noted the poverty reduction since her government had come to power. Dan Albas took over in English decry gasoline prices and demanded a tax break on them, and Jonathan Wilkinson reminded him that world oil prices were being affected by Putin’s illegal invasion of Ukraine. Albas went on a tangent that cast the prime minister as some kind of scripted actor before repeating his demand, and Wilkinson noted that the country was increasing production and supply, and that the carbon rebates put money back in people’s pockets.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and he decried the rise in 911 calls to report gunfire and demanded action from the federal government. Marco Mendicino gave his assurances that he too was worried and they were taking measures to deal with the problem. Therrien demanded a registry of criminal organisations, and Mendicino insisted that the gun control bill does have measures to tackle organised crime.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he marked the anniversary of the Islamophobic attack that killed a family in London, Ontario, and demanded more federal action to combat the problem. Mendicino insisted that they were taking concrete steps, and that needs to start with every member of the Chamber condemning Islamophobia. Singh repeated the question in French, and got assurances in English from Ahmed Hussen, who listed some of the actions the government has taken.

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Roundup: Sour premiers wanted more money

We’re not on or about day forty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and yesterday’s particular war crime of note was an attack on a train station in Kamatorsk that killed fifty-two Ukrainians fleeing to safer parts of the country. More chilling was the fact that the remains of the rocket had “For the children” spray painted on its side. Meanwhile, an international organization formed in the 1990s to identify the dead and the missing in the Balkan conflicts is preparing to send a team of forensic experts to Ukraine to help identify their dead as a result of Russian atrocities.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1512493160013996042

Closer to home, there is more reaction to this week’s budget, and in particular, some of the sour notes coming from provinces. It’s not just the current bit of confusion around just what the dental care programme is going to entail, because we don’t have any implementation details yet, and it sounds like the federal government may try to leverage existing provincial programmes for low-income earners. But more to the point, it’s about health transfers, and the fact that premiers aren’t getting their way with their demands for increased unconditional transfers, ostensibly to ensure that the federal government pays 35 percent of the share of health costs—a figure which is distortionary because since the 1970s, provinces were given tax points instead of direct transfers, so the true cost to the federal government would be far, far higher than the 35 percent figure they like to float. Not to mention, we saw that when federal transfers were higher for a decade, provinces used much of that money on other things, as certain provinces also did during the pandemic. So frankly, I wouldn’t expect the federal government to just hand over more unconditional money in the budget, particularly as they are negotiating with provinces for specific outcomes around mental health and long-term care.

Those demands for higher transfers are also raised in this op-ed by economist Trevor Tombe and professor Daniel Béland, which accuses the federal government of being uninterested in reforming those health care arrangements. I would dispute that because they have made it clear, during the election and since, that they are very interested in reforming those arrangements, and that those reforms mean strings attached to federal dollars, and those negotiations are ongoing. I’m also troubled by the notion that the federal government should be doing something about provincial debt, which is far more unsustainable than the federal government’s. Is the suggestion that the federal government upload more costs or programme responsibilities? Because I don’t see premiers clamouring for that (though they do want more money). Is the suggestion that the federal government simply pay for everything? Because that’s absolutely not sustainable either. It also ignores that most provinces have the ability to raise revenues the old-fashioned way—raising their own taxes. (Some provinces are admittedly screwed demographically, but again, what levers are we proposing the federal government employ?) Tombe and Béland want an open and collaborative process to rethink the fiscal relationships between levels of government, but we’ve all seen this movie before, and it always winds up with the provinces demanding the federal government give them more money. I’m not sure how that helps.

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QP: Counting down to the budget release

The benches were fairly empty today, as many MPs were preparing for their budget reactions, leaving a reduced presence in the Chamber. After a moment of silence for both Portapique and the anniversary of the Rwandan genocide, Luc Berthold led off, worrying about a “secret trial” that took place in Quebec. David Lametti noted that the was concerned about the reports but prosecutions remain independent of government, and he couldn’t speak more about the issue due to proceedings underway. Berthold then switched to the budget, and was worried about reports that Jagmeet Singh received a briefing on its contents, and wondered if he was sworn to secrecy about it. Mark Holland assured him that no secret information was released. Berthold insisted that there must have been a briefing based on media comments, and worried that leaked details could affect the stock market, and Holland repeated that no secret briefings were had. Kyle Seeback took over in English to worry that carbon prices would mean higher food prices, and that both the environmental and economic policies were a failure. Steven Guilbeault read off investments the government has made and corrected him that emissions have gone down by 30 million tonnes. Seeback chuckled at his own lame joke about how government spending only drove housing prices up—missing a few of the steps to that logic—and Randy Boissonnault denounced the Conservatives delaying the vote on Bill C-8 and the supports therein.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and was outraged that the prime minister was chosen by the UN to promote sustainable development and an hour later approved Bay du Nord, insisting that this made Canada a rogue state. Guilbeault said he was confused by the Bloc being outraged over a provincial decision, a wondered if they wanted federal interference in the Third Link project in Quebec City. Therrien insisted that there was no place for new oil projects, for which Guilbeault reminded him of Yves-François Blanchet’s decision to approve drilling provincially when he as a minster in Quebec.

Alexandre Boulerice appeared for the NDP by video, and he too railed about the Bay du Nord approval. Guilbeault assured him that he read the IPCC report, and that the project was as low-carbon as possible. Laurel Collins repeated the condemnation in English, and Guilbeault repeated his response, and assurances that they would reduce Canada’s emissions by the level required in the report, and that the report did admit that fossil fuels would still be used.

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QP: Sticking by childish epithets about the NDP

While neither the prime minister nor his deputy were present, Candice Bergen was back after a week of isolating while her husband had COVID. She led off, script on her mini-lectern, and she raised the of inflation, and worried that the government would spend “outrageously” rather than producing a “responsible” budget on Thursday. Randy Boissonnault, appearing by video, stated that the Conservatives have ignored the facts of the economic recovery from the pandemic. Bergen raised Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin, and John Manley to denounce the supposed “tax-and-spend” budget, because apparently it’s 1995 and will always be 1995. Boissonnault reminded Bergen that she campaigned on a higher deficit, and that their positions are all over the map, and called on the Conservatives to support Bill C-8 on the fiscal update measures. Bergen demanded a GST holiday on fuel and to scrap the price on carbon as “real measures” to give Canadians “a break,” and offered some childish epithets about the NDP. Boissonnault recited measures the government has taken for affordability, including their new plan on low-cost internet for low-income families. Luc Berthold took over in French, and repeated the claim that there were no fiscally-responsible Liberals left, and wondered what good the Liberal Party was if it sacrificed its values for the NDP agenda. Boisonnault repeated his good-news talking point about economic statistics, but in French. Berthold lamented inflation, and worried that the government would unveil new permanent spending in the budget, which apparently would make Chrétien and Martin embarrassed (though I’m not quite sure about that). Boissonnault thanked Berthold for saying that Liberals are fiscally responsible, and praised measures that helped children and seniors out of poverty.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she wanted unconditional health transfers and demanded a public summit to hear from premiers and health care providers. Jean-Yves Duclos praised providers, and noted that tens of thousands of lives, and tens of billions of dollars were saved thanks to their collaborations and efforts. Normandin repeated her demand for a public summit, and Duclos repeated his response. 

Alexandre Boulerice led for the NDP by video, and he cited the three-year warning of the IPCC on the pace of emissions cuts, demanding and end to fossil fuel subsidies, to which Steven Guilbeault recited that they are ahead of the rest of the G7 on ending subsidies and praised the investments in their emissions reduction plan. Laurel Collins repeated the question in English, to which Guilbeault cited environmental groups who praised the emissions reduction plan. 

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