QP: The coming Trumpocalypse

With Justin Trudeau and much of the cabinet off at an investor summit in Toronto, the front bench was full of seat warmers, but there were still 17 ministers present, which is okay for a Monday. Rona Ambrose led off, warning that the new Trump era will mean a carbon tax sets Canada up for failure. Dominic LeBlanc responded, saying they were looking to transition to a low-carbon future, and that the government looked forward to working with the new administration. Ambrose warned that while the Americans are our closest allies, they’re also our biggest competitors. LeBlanc noted the COP22 conference taking place right now, and that pricing pollution was good for our economy. Ambrose wondered about the future of the Keystone XL pipeline, at which LeBlanc said that it was the company that needed to reapply for a US permit, not the Canadian government. Ambrose demanded public support for the pipeline,  but LeBlanc stuck to fairly anodyne talking points about working with the incoming administration. Ambrose then moved onto NAFTA and the uncertainty the PM created by saying he would renegotiate it. Stéphane Dion said they looked forward to working with the US administration on a number of issues, including trade. While Thomas Mulcair was present, it was actually Jenny Kwan who led off for the NDP, demanding that mothers not be punished with CPP benefits changes. Jean-Yves Duclos said that the CPP changes were important, and that he was glad to see that they had other points of view to further improve the CPP. Brigitte Sansoucy asked the same in French, got the same answer, before Tracey Ramsay asked about the TPP, softwood lumber, and NAFTA renegotiation. Dion said that they were still consulting on the TPP, and when Karine Trudel asked the same in French, she got the same answer.

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QP: Wounded by your cynicism

The Liberal front bench was pretty empty as QP got underway, and Thomas Mulcair was the only leader present today, for whatever the reason. Trudeau in particular had no real excuse as he was just at an event with students in the precinct just a couple of hours before. Candice Bergen led off for the Conservatives, lamenting the lack of new jobs produced by the previous budget. Scott a Brison responded, lamenting the lack of attention the Conservatives were paying to the international investment that they had drawn, such as Thompson Reuters and Amazon. Bergen moved onto fundraising issues and Bardish Chagger gave her usual “federal rules” replies. Bergen demanded the Ethics Commissioner police this issue (not really per place to, which is an issue), and Chagger repeated her response. Gérard Deltell lamented the lack of a date for a return to budgetary balance, but Brison reminded him of their middle class tax cuts and the Canada Child Benefit. Deltell then demanded to know which other tax credits the government planned to eliminate, but Brison dodged and praised their investments in economic growth. Thomas Mulcair was up next, demanding to know which electoral system that the Minister of Democratic Institutions favoured, but with Monsef absent, Brison praised their consultative process and to let the committee do its work. Mulcair decried that those statements undercut the committee’s work, and Brison lamented Mulcair’s cynicism. Mulcair then changed topics and demanded to know now how many journalists were being signed on at the federal level, Ralph Goodale said that the situation in Quebec wasn’t applicable to the federal level but he wouldn’t comment on any ongoing operations. Mulcair pressed, and Goodale reminded him that the Commission told a committee that the answer was zero.

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QP: A hyperbolic nightmare

After yesterday’s fiscal update and everyone being revved up in the morning caucus meetings, it was close to a full house in the Commons for QP today with all leaders present. Rona Ambrose led off, describing the fiscal update as a “nightmare” of no jobs and higher taxes. Justin Trudeau reminded her that they lowered taxes on the middle class and that their infrastructure investments would create jobs. They went for another round of the same, and then Ambrose moved onto the planned closure of the Vegreville immigration processing centre. Trudeau responded with some bland points about the aid they’ve given to Alberta, but didn’t really answer the question. Ambrose then moved onto brandishing the name Kathleen Wynne as a segue to fundraising issues. Trudeau responded with the bland assurances about federal rules being the toughest and they were respecting them. Ambrose raised the issue of their ethical guidelines, and Trudeau assured her that they were following those guidelines. Thomas Mulcair read out the ethics section of the ministerial mandate letters, and Trudeau repeated that they were open, accountable and were accessible to all Canadians. Mulcair repeated him in French, and Trudeau insisted that they were open with their fundraisers. Mulcair asked Trudeau about the electoral reform townhall he head and what system got the most support — fishing for endorsement of PR. Trudeau didn’t take the bait, and praised consultations with Canadians on the subject. Mulcair came out and said that PR was reported to be the preferred system and why wasn’t he listening to “evidence” on the system. Trudeau gave some bland assurances that they were listening about the best way to reform the electoral system.

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Roundup: The fiscal update’s hidden gem

The fall fiscal update was delivered yesterday – in the House of Commons, it must be noted – and not unsurprisingly there are deeper deficits projected while the government pledges funds to kickstart an infrastructure bank in the hopes of attracting foreign investment. Oh, and “no path back to balance” is the phrase you’re going to hear an awful lot in the coming weeks. Probably ad nauseum. Oh, and “privatization,” as the NDP now consider the infrastructure banks (because hey, we might have to start paying for the roads and bridges that this bank might fund and we couldn’t have that). That having been said, the debt-to-GDP ratio will be the government’s saving grace when it comes to the size of the deficit, as it should remain relatively stable, while still coming in at the lowest in the G7 by a significant margin. So there’s that.

This all having been said, there were other elements in the update that bear mentioning, and which should not be overlooked, which are some of the changes to the way that Parliament operates. They’re going to make the Parliamentary Budget Officer a full Officer of Parliament (which I have mixed feelings about because this solidifies his status as an unaccountable officer for MPs to fob their homework off onto while hiding behind his analyses as “objective proof” of their partisan accusation), they’re adding new independence to Statistics Canada, and they’re going to open up the Board of Internal Economy. But more important than any of that is they’re going to do something about the Estimates cycle.

Why does this matter? Because MPs are supposed to hold the government to account by controlling the public purse, but over succeeding decades, the ways in which they do that – the Estimates and supply cycle – have become so corrupted that they no longer follow the budget cycle, their accounting methods no longer match the Public Accounts so that they can’t track spending, and in many cases, MPs just vote on the Estimates in a series of votes with zero scrutiny (leaving that job up to the Senate – naturally). So if this government is promising to put the Estimates and Budget cycle back in sync, and to clean up the discrepancies between the Estimates and the Public Accounts, that is a Very Big Deal. It means that it will let MPs do their jobs like they’re supposed to do. (We’ll see if any of them do, especially with an empowered PBO for them to fob that homework off onto, but this will certainly help him too). It’s restoring some of the proper functioning of our parliamentary democracy, and we shouldn’t ignore it.

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QP: In advance of the fiscal update

Just before the fall fiscal update was to be delivered – in the Commons for the first time in a decade, mind you – Justin Trudeau was elsewhere, despite all other leaders being present. Rona Ambrose led off, raising the forthcoming fiscal update and wondering why the government was doubling down on its failed plan. Bill Morneau said that he was looking forward to talking about the long-term impact of their measures. Ambrose noted that the infrastructure plan only got one project going, but Amarjit Sohi disputed that characterization and praised the agreements with the provinces. Ambrose decried tax increases, and Morneau retorted with the tax cuts they put through in the last year plus the implementation of the Canada Child Benefit. Ambrose then tried to equate Trudeau’s cabinet with Kathleen Wynne’s staffers facing provincial charges as a segue to fundraising issues, and Bardish Chagger read her standard response about the federal rules. Ambrose changed to French and raised the Chrétien-era staffer who was found guilty for Sponsorship-scandal related fraud charges, and Chagger simply repeated her response in French. Thomas Mulcair was up next, asking about police surveillance of a journalist in Quebec. Ralph Goodale responded about the gravity of the situation and the values of freedom of the press, which is spelled out in a ministerial directive. Mulcair pressed, and Goodale spelled out the Supreme Court five-part test. Mulcair moved onto fundraising, and Chagger repeated her standard response. Another round of the same got no different answer.

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QP: Hugging it out

As is traditional on Halloween, we got a number of tortured metaphors and references during members’ statement. As well, all leaders with the exception of Thomas Mulcair were present, and no one was in costume. Rona Ambrose led off with a question about fundraising — again. Justin Trudeau tried to turn the question on its head, talking about their open engagement and public consultations. Ambrose tried to keep it about the ethical guidelines, but Trudeau kept up his praise for their unprecedented levels of engagement. Ambrose demanded an end to preferential access, and Trudeau insisted that there was no preferential access, and that they were in fact being accused of consulting too much. Ambrose moved onto carbon pricing and how it hurt families. Trudeau noted their middle class tax cut, and made a plug for tomorrow’s fall economic update. Ambrose lamented the lack of job creation, and Trudeau instead took a moment to praise the signing of CETA, giving credit to the Conservatives while he was at it. Romeo Saganash led off for the NDP, demanding the deadline for increasing First Nations child welfare funding. Trudeau noted his commitment to First Nations, and that they were continuing to work on that file. Saganash didn’t get an answer on the deadline, and pressed for one. Trudeau said it was a problem that goes back generations, and that they need to build capacity in the system. Charlie Angus picked it up in English, and Trudeau repeated his response. Angus brought up a particular case where there was a legal battle over the fees, and Trudeau insisted that they were committed to working in partnership on a solution.

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Roundup: CETA got signed

Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland went to Brussels over the weekend to sign the Canada-EU trade deal (known as CETA), but this was the real signing, as opposed to the several signings staged by the Harper government at much earlier iterations of the process, which they wanted to use to show how pro-trade they were, and how much work they were doing on the trade file. And yes, they did get the ball rolling on CETA, as well as the TPP, and a number of trade deals with a bunch of small countries with tiny economies that do very little trade with Canada, and loudly proclaimed the number (as opposed to the worth of those signed deals). So there’s that. At the signing ceremony, Trudeau also downplayed the delays and praised the democratic way in which it all happened, essentially saying that it’s not a bad thing to raise questions and to have them answered, which is fairly gracious of him (and fits with the overall character of his government to date in acknowledging the challenge function of parliament and the media – though he may want to let his Senate leader, Peter Harder, know, as Harder rather arrogantly doesn’t believe that the Senate needs an official opposition).

Of course, now comes the hard part of implementation, which will doubtlessly have numerous stumbling blocks along the way, and we’ll likely need several reminders about why the investor-state dispute settlement mechanism isn’t actually an attack on sovereignty, and how the improvements that Freeland negotiated to the system are a net positive and will likely form a model for other such systems going forward. We’ll hear yet more cries from the NDP and other left-leaning critics about those concerns, but the deal is moving ahead.

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Roundup: A warning or a betrayal?

Justin Trudeau made some comments to Le Devoir about the reduced sense of urgency around electoral reform, and a bunch of people – notably the NDP – freaked out. Trudeau said:

Under Stephen Harper, there were so many people unhappy with the government and their approach that people were saying, ‘It will take electoral reform to no longer have a government we don’t like’. But under the current system, they now have a government they’re more satisfied with and the motivation to change the electoral system is less compelling.

And then comes the parsing of the rhetoric – is he trying to walk back on his election promise that 2015 was the last election under first-past-the-post, or is he trying to give signals to the electoral reform committee as they begin to draft their report after their summer of consultations across the country? To the NDP (and Ed Broadbent of his eponymously named Institute), Trudeau’s comments are a betrayal because to them, he can only deliver proportional representation or bust. Their working premise is that Trudeau was saying that because the system elected Liberals it’s fine, but when it elected Conservatives, it was broken. But I’m not sure that’s what Trudeau was actually saying, because the prevailing popular discussion pre-election was that reform was needed because any system that delivered Conservative majorities was deemed illegitimate – one of those kinds of talking points that gives me hives because it presumes that electoral reform needs to be done for partisan reasons. And to that extent, Trudeau is right, that the sense of urgency has decreased because the Conservatives are no longer in power, so there’s less clamour for it to happen. There is also the theory that what Trudeau was signalling was that there are degrees of acceptable change, and that without as much broad support that smaller change like ranked ballots could be something he would push through (seeing as we all know that the committee is going to be deadlocked).

https://twitter.com/pmlagasse/status/788788763854077952

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Kady O’Malley, on the other hand, thinks that Trudeau is signalling to the NDP and Greens that they should be willing to compromise on PR during the committee deliberations, or he’ll deem it a stalemate and either walk away or put it to a referendum, where it would almost certainly be doomed. Rona Ambrose says that it could signal that Trudeau is backing down, which the Conservatives would like (and to be perfectly honest, I would too because the system is not broken and electoral reform is a solution in search of a problem). That he may have found the excuse to back down and admit this election promise is a failure – and then move on – would be the ideal move in my most humble opinion.

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QP: Tributes for Prentice

Half of the leaders were present in the Commons today, and after some tributes for the late Jim Prentice from all parties and a moment of silence, QP got underway. Rona Ambrose, mini-lectern on desk, asked about the size of the deficit, which is more than had been promised. After a quick rebuke about making investments, Justin Trudeau gave a tribute to Prentice of his own. Ambrose was concerned that jobs were not being created and demanded that he stop spending and focus on jobs instead. Trudeau noted that the Conservative approach didn’t create growth, while he was cutting taxes for the middle class. Ambrose then mischaracterized a whole list of things as taxes before decrying the possibility of a Netflix tax. Trudeau repeated his response about cutting taxes on the middle class. Denis Lebel was up next, decrying the lack of a softwood lumber agreement and how it was hurting families. Trudeau responded with the list of ways they are helping families. Lebel doubled down on the softwood lumber agreement, and Trudeau agreed that they were concerned about the file, but the former government’s broken relationship with the Americans didn’t help. Peter Julian led off for the NDP, demanding money for home care while mischaracterizing the changes to health care escalators. Trudeau reminded him that the Harper approach to healthcare was to write a check and not ensure that the money was spent on healthcare. Julian demanded that the health transfer escalator remain at six percent for another year, but Trudeau was not responsive to his logic. Brigitte Sansoucy repeated both questions again in French, and got much the same response from Trudeau in French.

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Roundup: Anxiety and resentment

As the United States continues to be subjected to demagoguery in their electoral gong show, Bill Morneau is warning about “canary in the coal mine” that Trumpism is representing, which can be echoed in other places with the Brexit vote or the rise of Bernie Sanders on the left in the US. Morneau attributes it to anxiety and resentment over the belief that globalisation is not benefitting the majority of citizens (never mind that $400 flat panel televisions are totally not the benefit of global trade, but just a coincidence. Oh, wait…) Morneau pegs his solutions in terms of what his government is doing with their “inclusive growth” agenda, and mentions their higher taxes on the one percent in order to pay for the enhanced child benefit payments and their plans to overhaul the CPP, along with infrastructure spending, but it seems to me that it’s only half the battle, and that we need some greater financial economic amongst the general public to see just what the benefits of global trade are, and that they’re not just benefitting the super-rich.

We need talk about things like the “Iowa car crop” to educate people about how trade benefits them in ways that they don’t think about – like hey, food prices are at something approaching an all-time low thanks to trade, and cars and electronics continue to fall in price and we have devices nowadays that would be considered magical just a few decades ago, at price points that are unimaginable for their complexity. But none of this fits into the narratives of resentment that people stoke for political benefit, and that’s a problem. It’s also a problem with that narrative is used to fuel anti-establishment sentiments that only serve to poison the well against the way governments function, and that’s going to start biting back in a very big way before too long in the States, as people demanding wholesale dismantling of the state start reaping what they’ve sown – particularly as it comes wrapped in Trump’s message and his attempts to delegitimise the results of the election before they’ve happened already. It’s a dangerous game that they’re playing, and it needs to be stopped, but anyone who does is “biased” and “protecting the status quo,” and where do you go from there? I wish I knew.

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