Tag Archives: Parliamentary Budget Officer

QP: Credit cards and a prima donna PBO

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The PM was in the building, but was entertaining the King and Queen of Sweden, so he was not present for QP today. Pierre Poilievre was, however, and he led off in French, declaring that Canadians needed an “affordable budget,” but that the prime minster was “creating more inflation,” and cited the PBO on the size of the deficit—ignoring that that’s not what is driving inflation, and it’s really not what is causing food price inflation. Poilievre demanded the government account for the extra $5000 in inflation the budget would create (huh?), and François-Philippe Champagne said he was glad that Poilievre read the summary of the budget, but listed the things that they voted against. Poilievre rhetorically asked what Canadians were getting for the prime minister’s travel, listing places where tariffs had increased. Champagne retorted that Canadians were wondering how the Canadians dared to vote against Canada. Poilievre switched to English, repeated his lines about the size of the deficit and what the PBO said, and again wondered how single moms and seniors can pay another five grand in inflation (which, again, is not how inflation works). Champagne deployed his “take no lessons” line, and listed the things the Conservatives voted against. Poilievre mocked that he didn’t think anyone could cram that many slogans into an answer, and this was coming from him, before he listed the drop in housing starts. Gregor Robertson said that he was ignoring the year-to-date figures, which said that housing starts were up five percent (which is also pretty selective as the biggest markets are down). Poilievre then retired to the question about the trips Carney took and the tariffs that increased from those counties as a result. Maninder Sidhu got up to praise the good news of Germany buying a billion dollars in military equipment from Canada. Poilievre broke the prop rules to show a blank list of tariffs that were reduced, and Sidhu read a script about Poilievre referring to non-oil exports as “pixie dust.”

Christine Normandin rose for the Bloc, and worried about TVA and the layoffs they are facing, demanding federal actions. Steven Guilbeault said it was incomprehensible that the Bloc would raise this while they voted against the budget and the historic investments in culture therein. Normandin tried to play this as Ottawa not caring about their television, and Guilbeault again listed the cultural investments the Bloc voted against. Martin Champoux took over to say there was nothing for private broadcasters in the budget, and again demanded federal action. Steven MacKinnon gave a similar response about the investments in Quebec that the Bloc voted against.

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QP: Food prices versus budget back-patting

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In advance of the budget vote, the PM was present today, as were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, where he trotted out his new line likening the budget to credit card spending “with no limits,” and that this created surges in inflation and taxes, and raise the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s concerns that the size of the deficit has doubled. (And no, a federal budget has absolutely no relation to a credit card, and I wish to the gods our politicians would stop making these comparisons). Mark Carney praised the budget as a “generational investment” budget, and cited the PBO that the policy was sustainable in the long term. Poilievre cried that this was multigenerational debt that is driving up food prices (it is not), and read the food price inflation data from this morning, and blamed “Liberal taxes” (which is also nonsense). Carney reminded him that inflation has slowed down and has been within the Bank of Canada’s target for the past two years. Poilievre switched to English to repeat the line about the national credit card and inflation. Carney repeated in English that it’s a day because inflation is down, unemployment is down, and they have an opportunity to vote for their budget. Poilievre was not slowed, and uttered some complete bullshit about food price inflation, and repeated his nonsense about credit cards. Carney repeated the lines about inflation and unemployment while confidence in our economy is “sky high.” Poilievre repeated nonsense about “hidden taxes,” and Carney pointed out that wages have grown faster than inflation, and exhorted the Conservatives to vote for their budget. Poilievre switched to the rise in extortion, calling it a result of “soft-on-crime policies” and “open borders,” which is a foghorn and not a dog-whistle, and Carney called on them to support their future legislation.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, worried about tariffs, and wanted the PM to admit his strategy has failed. Carney reminded him that we have the best trade agreement currently and they are working to a better on. Blanchet mocked this, and demanded the same, and Carney said that Trump is calling his back, before praising investments for Quebec in the budget. Blanchet then demanded that the government capitulate to their requests for the budget, and Carney again repeated the investments for Quebec in the budget.

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Roundup: Playing chicken with the budget vote

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The vote on the Ways and Means motion around the federal budget will be held early this evening, at the collapse of debate, and as of yet, nobody is willing to say just how it’s going to pass. And rest assured, it will pass, because nobody wants an election, and the NDP in particular have no way of affording going to an election (with an interim leader, no less), but absolutely nobody wants to actually look like they’re going to back down when they can swing their dicks around instead.

And so, we’re now in a game of chicken. The Government Whip says they’re ready to go to an election on this budget if they have to, but it’s an empty threat because nobody actually wants to go to an election. The real problem is there being a potential accident where someone isn’t supposed to vote (for the sake of the numbers) does, because everyone can vote on their phones now (which, I remind you, is a parliamentary abomination and should be stopped), and it goes over the edge. But I’m pretty sure that’s not going to happen, because again, nobody wants to go to an election, especially the Conservatives and the NDP. So, I suspect the Conservative whip is going to ensure that someone has unforeseen circumstances that they “just can’t vote,” and oh, well, the budget passed by the narrowest of margins. Oh darn.

Because we’re not going to have an election over this.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile struck the city of Balakliia in Kharkiv region, killing three and wounding at least ten. Russia claims it has taken two more settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region in the south. President Zelenskyy says he is working on another prisoner exchange with Russia.

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Roundup: Ahistorical expectations about project timelines

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A couple of quick notes for the weekend. First is that for all of the projects referred to the Major Projects Office, none have actually officially been designated a PONI (Project of National Importance), so my calling the referred projects as such is admittedly premature. But that also means that none of them have the special rules that trigger the Henry VIII Clause from the legislation, which again, leads to the same question that Althia Raj asked in her most recent column about why the rush to ram that bill through Parliament with almost no debate and little stakeholder input if they haven’t bothered to use it, nearly six months later.

The other note is that the talk about timelines remain ahistorical and nothing but wishful thinking. “We used to build big things. We built a railway in four years.” Erm, not really. This is likely a reason why most of the projects that have been referred to the MPO so far have been in the works for years is for the very reason that they’re much further along. This is likely going to be one of the death knells of Danielle Smith’s pipeline plan, which is that it’s starting from zero, and there is no way, even with the magic wand of the Henry VIII clause, that they can make it go from concept to shovels in two years.

They didn't go from "Shall we build a railway?" to a railway in four years.The CPR was a Confederation promise before 1867. Construction began in 1881.Or, actually, in 1875, when they started a section in Manitoba and northern Ontario. Which hooked up to other rails built on their own earlier.

— David Reevely (@davidreevely.bsky.social) 2025-09-14T23:17:30.293Z

There were planning, scandal, false starts, re-awarding of the contract. And not a lot of attention to, you know, Indigenous people's rights.Or working conditions, which were eventually the subject of Heritage Minute you might recall. www.youtube.com/watch?v=EE3I…

— David Reevely (@davidreevely.bsky.social) 2025-09-14T23:20:55.646Z

What's the right length of time to plan and build a new high-speed rail line in 2025? I don't know.But they didn't do the entire CPR from concept to completion in four years, and I don't think we want a dead temporary foreign worker for every mile of track.

— David Reevely (@davidreevely.bsky.social) 2025-09-14T23:23:15.475Z

And then there’s Poilievre’s completely nonsense demanding that government “get out of the way,” or Ontario’s Stephen Lecce talking about the problems with federal regulations killing projects when that also relies on a very selective reading of history and what happened. Northern Gateway started planning before Harper took over, and over his nine years in power, Mr. “Get government out of the way” couldn’t get it past the finish line either (in part because they couldn’t even be arsed to live up to their own consultation process with First Nations). Nothing Poilievre is saying is true, so We The Media need to stop treating it like it’s credible.

Ukraine Dispatch

The attack on Kyiv early Friday killed six and injured dozens, along with more strikes on energy facilities. Ukraine hit the oil port at Novorossiyk the same day, suspending oil exports. Ukraine is now mass-producing interceptor drones to bolster their air defences.

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Roundup: Poilievre refuses self-reflection

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Pierre Poilievre held a press conference yesterday, where he debuted a new slogan about the “credit card budget,” as though that were clever (it’s really not), and had several of his MPs all read the same scripts about so-called “Liberal inflation,” even though inflation doesn’t work that way, and the current affordability crisis is the result of policies that have been baked in for several decades now. But where things got testy was in the media availability after, where Poilievre was taking shots at media outlets (including false accusations about corrections), and him “quoting” things Chris d’Entremont said about the Liberals in the Chamber, which might have been more damning if they simply weren’t the very same scripts that every Conservative MP reads unthinkingly. (d’Entremont later, correctly, dismissed this as just “spinning.”)

But what took the cake was when Poilievre was asked whether he was reflecting on his leadership style after the two losses to his caucus over the last week, and he said plainly “No,” and then babbled on about being the only leader fighting for affordability. (Also not true, because the only thing he’s fighting for is trickle-down economics, which created the affordability mess we’re in). But seriously, Poilievre is incapable of self-reflection, and he keeps proving that over and over again. He’s the same campus conservative he was when he was seventeen, and nothing will ever change or dissuade him from that, nor his childish, argumentative style, his need for chants and slogans, or his jejune beliefs in how monetary policy works. He is incapable of understanding complexity, and it shows. The fact that his leadership style is being referred to as a frat house is just as indicative of this fact. No self-reflection, no personal growth, and it’s a wonder why people who aren’t already Kool-Aid drinkers in the party don’t connect with him.

Meanwhile, the NDP are puffing out their chests and telling the Toronto Star that they’re getting ready for an election if the budget doesn’t pass, which I will call bullshit. They’re not getting ready for an election. The party is $23 million in debt, they’ve already mortgaged the office building they own in downtown Ottawa, and they have no more resources to draw on. This is them trying to look like they’re tough and relevant when they will see to it in one way or another that there is no election because in no way can the fight one, even if it’s to try and reclaim five seats in order to return to official party status. This is posturing, and nobody should be under any impression otherwise.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-11-12T23:01:55.085Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukrainian civilians are being evacuated from settlements in the Zaporizhzhia region as fighting intensifies in the area, while forces in the area say that they have stopped the Russian advance. Here is more about the situation in Pokrovsk. Ukraine’s justice and energy ministers submitted their resignations as a result of the energy kickback scheme allegations.

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Roundup: Empty-handed at the White House

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After all of the build-up, the managed expectations, and all of the blustery accusations in Ottawa that prime minister Mark Carney is an inept negotiator, he came away from his “working lunch” at the White House with pretty much nothing. Carney gave Trump his usual quasi-flattering/quasi-shady “transformational president” line (because once Carney has a line he likes, he sticks with it), and he laughed off another annexation “joke” from Trump, and Trump rambled some nonsense about competing in the same ecosystem for cars, but that was about it.

Carney later on had dinner with couch-fucker vice president JD Vance, while Dominic LeBlanc was sent out to deal with the press, and said pretty much nothing other than the fact that they’re going to negotiate further and hoping for some “quick deals” on a few specific issues, which we’ve heard so many times now, and capitulated on so many particular issues that it just feels all the more meaningless. And it is meaningless, because everyone knows that there is no deal to be had because Trump will not live up to any “agreement” he signs. So naturally, the auto sector is concerned that they’re going to be thrown under the bus because Trump refuses to give up the notion that Canada stole auto production from the US, in spite of facts and evidence to the contrary. Nevertheless, we’re in for another round of QP where the Conservatives denounce Carney as the incompetent negotiator when Trump is not a rational actor who can be negotiated with, because why unite against a common enemy when you could be scoring Internet points?

There wasn’t much in the way of pundit reaction so far, but Shannon Proudfoot points out that Keir Starmer figured out the key to flattering Trump before everyone else did, and how it reflected in Carney’s meeting. Althia Raj correctly calls this a cringe-worthy performance on both sides, which accomplished nothing.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-07T14:08:04.476Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Putin claims that Russia has seized 5000 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory this year, and that they retain the strategic initiative; Ukraine says they have failed to seize any major settlements and that their initiative is stalled.

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Roundup: Managing the expectations from Washington

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Monday was a weird day of expectations management as prime minister Mark Carney headed to Washington for a “working lunch” with Trump to happen today. There were murmurs from Senior Government Sources™ that there could be some kind of relief for some—but not all—of the steel and aluminium tariffs, but those were heavily caveated and is not going to be any kind of comprehensive tariff deal, because Trump loves his tariffs. (And there is no deal to be had). Oh, and while all of this expectations management was going on, Trump declared new 25 percent tariffs on medium and heavy-duty trucks. Because of course.

Amidst this, Pierre Poilievre released a peevish open-letter to Carney that demanded “no more losing” when it comes to dealing with Trump, and a list of things he wants “wins” on, whether it’s tariffs or softwood lumber, or what have you. Because remember, under this framing, Trump is the rational actor and Carney is the one who is the inept negotiator who simply can’t get anything done. Reality of course, is entirely the opposite, that you can’t really negotiate with Trump because he has no logical basis or consistency for his “deals,” and anything he agrees to isn’t worth the paper its written on (if it’s even written down, as some “deals” were nothing more than blank pages with a signature on it).

To that end, Andrew Scheer went on Power & Politics looking to pick a fight with David Cochrane about this, and when Cochrane pointed out that yes indeed, Trump’s tariffs are both affecting our economy and we still do have the best deal of anyone with Trump, that Scheer twisted this into “agreeing” that Carney’s ineptitude has cratered the economy and soured any deal with Trump, because Scheer is a liar and a braying doofus. But this is what everyone has to deal with when it comes to the level of rhetoric and sheer sophistry coming from the Conservatives these days, which is not exactly conducive to informed debate.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-06T22:08:02.378Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine’s forces say that Russian sabotage groups are active in the city of Pokrovsk, which Russians have been trying to capture for months. Ukraine’s long-range drones have struck a Russian ammunition plant, a key oil terminal, and an important weapons depot.

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Roundup: Telling on themselves about bail

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After Question Period today, there will be a vote on the Conservatives’ latest Supply Day motion, which is for the House of Commons to pass their blatantly unconstitutional “jail not bail” bill at all stages. This is going to be an increasingly common tactic as they have loaded up the Order Paper with a number of these kinds of private members’ bills, and they are using the rhetoric that the government is somehow “obstructing” their legislation, even though most of those bills would ordinarily never see the light of day because there is a lottery system for private members’ legislation to come up for debate, with no guarantee of passage in either chamber (because the Senate can and will sit on private members’ bills long enough for them to die on the Order Paper if they’re particularly egregious). But most people don’t understand the legislative process, or that opposition MPs can’t just bring stuff up for debate at any point in time, so this is just more rage-baiting over through use of scary crime stories to make the point about how the Liberals are “soft on crime,” and so on. It would be great if legacy media could call out this bullshit, but they won’t.

At the same time, the Conservatives calling it “Liberal bail” is telling on themselves. The law of bail stems from the pre-Charter right to the presumption of innocence, which is a cornerstone of our entire legal system. The specific law of bail has been honed through decades of Supreme Court of Canada jurisprudence, and the last time the Liberal government made any major bail reform legislation, it was to codify that Supreme Court jurisprudence, and to actually increase the onus for cases of domestic violence. None of this made things easier for bail, but the Conservatives haven’t stopped demanding that legislation be repealed (and only once in a while will a Liberal minister or parliamentary secretary actually call that out). This is about undermining important Charter rights, but do the Conservatives care? Of course not. They want to look tough and decisive, no matter who gets hurt in the process.

Meanwhile, much to my surprise, Poilievre says he won’t support the (really bad) omnibus border bill, C-2, so long as it contains privacy-violating sections like enhanced lawful access, which is a surprise, because the Conservatives have been champions of it for years (much as the Liberals used to be opposed to it). So, the world really is upside down now. Unless this is some kind of tactic or ploy, which I also would not be surprised by, but at the moment it looks like they’re on a “the Liberals are the real threats to your freedom” kick, which to be fair, this legislation is not helping the Liberals’ case.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched their largest aerial assault against Lviv and surrounding regions early Sunday, killing at least five. Earlier in the weekend, Russia attacked a passenger train at a station in Sumy, killing one and injuring approximately thirty others.

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Roundup: An eight-day sitting?

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I don’t follow provincial legislatures too much, but this headline caught my eye—that the Nova Scotia legislature had just wrapped up an eight-day sitting, which absolutely rankles me as someone who cares (perhaps a little too) deeply about parliamentary democracy. While on the one hand, it’s not uncommon for provincial legislatures to have shorter sessions that we see in Ottawa, and for them not to have the same kind of fixed schedule that we do, eight days is frankly insulting.

What is perhaps even worse from this story is the fact that the Houston government rammed through a bunch of omnibus legislation, when clearly, they had the time and the ability to actually debate legislation on their own. Even more problematic is the fact that these omnibus bills included poison pills to try and trap the opposition parties into supporting disparate things. The one example was protections for renters, which the NDP supported, being in the same bill that imposed heavy fines or jail time on protesters on Crown land, effectively criminalising certain kinds of dissent, which they could not support (especially as these protests involve protests on logging roads). I’m sure Tim Houston thought that this was clever, when it’s just abusive. This is not how the parliamentary process is supposed to work. This is certainly a problem in most Westminster legislatures, and there are now mechanisms in the federal Parliament that can break apart omnibus bills in certain circumstances, and perhaps the province needs to adopt some of these measures on their own because that should be out of bounds.

Part of what irritates me about this is that Houston is doing this while he’s trying to sell himself to Canadians as this reasonable, progressive conservative who’s not tied to the federal party, and that he’s this kind of anti-Poilievre figure. I’ve certainly heard from people who used to sit in that legislature that he has a reputation for bullying, but even beyond that, these kinds of tactics demonstrate a kind of contempt for elected office, and for elected officials to be doing their jobs, which includes scrutinizing legislation properly, and holding government to account. A rushed eight-day sitting where you ram through omnibus bills is clearly not how a legislature is supposed to operate, and the people in the province should be raising a bigger racket about this—especially in Nova Scotia, which was where Responsible Government was first achieved in the colonies.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia targeted Ukraine’s natural gas facilities in an early morning attack on Friday, with much of the targets to being facilities in Kharkiv. A Russian drone also killed a French photojournalist on the front lines in Eastern Ukraine.

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QP: Pretending there are taxes on groceries

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The PM was in town, back from one set of travels and before the next, while the day felt both like Monday as no one had sat for the previous two days, while the post-caucus Wednesday energy still suffused the Chamber. Pierre Poilievre led off in English for a change, and he lamented job losses across various sectors, and blamed the prime minister. Mark Carney offered his sympathies for families affected, and touted their actions to protect industries. Poilievre quoted the hyperbolic statements of the interim PBO, accusing the PM of killing jobs, to which Carney said that Poilievre was ignoring the effect of U.S. tariffs, and offered his “spend less, invest more” line. Poilievre went on a tear about the deficits, to which Carney offered a “fiscal lesson,” which consisted of our AAA credit rating and the lowest deficit in the G7. Poilievre accused Carney of being worse than Trudeau, and Carney chanted that the country is building industry, houses, the country, etc. Poilievre switched to French to once again quote the PBO, and Carney again cited our strong fiscal position in the G7. Poilievre returned to English, to return to the issue of food price inflation, blaming “taxes” on groceries. Carney cite that there’s no GST on food, there’s no carbon levy, there is no carbon price on farms, and that real wages are growing.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and accused the government of meddling in the Canada Post labour dispute, and considered it a “provocation.” Carney stated that Canada Post is an essential service and it needs to be viable, but they need to take action to stop it from losing millions of dollars. Blanchet said that if it was an essential service, why radical cuts would be made, and that workers learned about the cuts TV. Carney stated that he just became PM, and that they have needed to make changes for a long time. Blanchet accused Carney of being a conservative, and demanded “serious experts” to reform Canada Post. Carney said that the corporation and union need to come to an agreement between themselves, but that they also needed more flexibility. 

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