Justin Trudeau’s Saturday presser had a couple of items of news – the first was that the Northwest Territories was shutting its borders to non-essential travel, which was a move Trudeau supported. That was announced just hours before it was announced that the Territory had its first confirmed COVID-19 case. While other provinces may want to contemplate shutting their own provincial borders (which would be incredibly difficult, particularly given Charter rights around freedom of mobility), the Territories are isolated enough and mostly fly-in, so that makes it easier – something you can’t say about the other provinces except maybe for Newfoundland and Labrador (and to an extent PEI, if they closed the Confederation Bridge and halted all ferries). Trudeau also noted that the government was working with airlines to get flights into countries that have closed their airspace in order to get Canadians out, naming Peru and Spain as their first priorities.
The more salient – and perhaps poignant – point was made by Patty Hajdu at the ministerial presser that followed, where she stated bluntly that if Canadians don’t voluntarily do more social distancing, the government may have to implement measures that will start to encroach on their civil liberties – in other words, harsher police enforcement of quarantine orders and orders to shut down the country like we saw in places like Italy. Where a really big concern is where all of these Canadians – snowbirds especially – are returning to the country and we’ll see how many of them properly self-isolate upon their return. There are warnings to the effect of “Go right home, don’t stop for supplies first,” which will be hard for a lot of people, but that message will need to be drilled home effectively.
We also have some news on the return of Parliament on Tuesday, where 30 MPs will come back to pass the extraordinary spending measures and question Bill Morneau about them, followed by the Senate on Wednesday to pass the bill in their chamber. (My look at what this Skeleton Parliament may look like is here).
There was news today from Justin Trudeau in his daily presser (which will happen again today, but I suspect we’ll all be working through the weekends for the foreseeable future), which was not only that the government was working with industry to both increase the capacity at companies which produce medical equipment, and to help other companies retool in order to produce supplies that may be necessary in the near future – something that is akin to a wartime scenario. Trudeau also said that the government had come to an agreement with the United States to essentially suspend the Safe Third Country Agreement, and that for the next 30 days (at which point the agreement sunsets), any irregular border crossers trying to seek asylum in Canada would be returned to the United States.
This is wild. Sending these migrants back to the U.S. pretty much guarantees they will be deported with virtually no chance of receiving asylum. All this, in the middle of an epidemic. https://t.co/RjJIKHIzkG
I have a couple of cynical theories about this move – one of them being that it’s a sop to the Conservatives, who have been crowing about this as other border closures have been taking place. The other theory, which has been put forward by some Washington-based journalists, is that this was in part to offer cover to Donald Trump so that he could take more extreme measures along his southern border. There is also the pragmatist aspect to this – resources are tight with other border closures and screening, so ensuring that there are enough people to man the irregular crossings like Roxham Road, where asylum claimants need to be processed, screened, and now isolated in a federal facility for two weeks, was likely going to stress their resources and capacity. The flip-side of this, however, is that it pushes more people to unmonitored crossings that are further afield, especially now that the weather is warming up, and if they cross there, they won’t be screened and won’t be tracked by public health authorities, and could easily become new vectors for infection – essentially making the government damned if they do, damned if they don’t. The humanitarian aspect of this decision is also a pretty big deal, and does damage to our international reputation, but in this time of crisis, I’m not sure how much anyone is thinking of that, and if it makes it seem like they’re taking action – even if it’s one that will inevitably have more negative consequences than positive ones – then that may be the trade-off for other political considerations at this point in time.
So yeah, Trudeau is basically giving Trump political cover to shut the southern border to undocumented migrants.
"This order applies to persons coming from Mexico and Canada who are seeking to enter the country illegally," HHS Secretary Alex Azar just said.
Meanwhile, Here’s an updated Q&A with infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch on COVID-19. Justin Ling worries about the patchwork of information coming from different levels of government as it relates to the pandemic. Ling is also concerned about the government’s tepid response to the pandemic relating to prisoners, and the decision around asylum seekers. Chantal Hébert gives her assessment of how the country’s political leaders are responding to the crisis. Colby Cosh offers some reflections on the state of the pandemic and where it may lead us.
It was a much calmer day yesterday with little in the way of new announcements – the most noteworthy part of Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was that he was actually on time for possibly the first time ever! Oh, and the border restrictions for non-essential travel will probably only kick in sometime on Friday night, but details were still being worked out. As well, there is still no contemplation of use of the Emergencies Act, but it remains a tool in the box if need be.
With the slower news day in mind, here is economist Kevin Milligan who goes through the criticisms of the government’s massive aid package, and addresses which are fair and which ones may not have all of the considerations therein.
As the impact of the pandemic starts to be really felt in Canada, there is a new kind of rhythm starting to take shape in Ottawa, which is essentially that we get our daily press conference with Justin Trudeau, followed by ministerial press conferences, one after the other, and along the way, the daily briefings and pressers from the different provinces creep up in there as well. Today’s Trudeau press conference outlined the agreement to close the Canada-US border to non-essential traffic, and to outline the broad strokes of the $82 billion in economic measures (when you include tax deferrals) designed to help the country cope with the pandemic. He also said that measures specific to the airline industry and oil and gas sector were coming later in the week, including significant measures to remediate orphan wells in Alberta, which means that the federal government has now assumed a chunk of the province’s environmental liabilities, and both the companies that left them and the province that didn’t properly regulate their remediation are going to be let off the hook, so slow clap for that one.
Morneau says they will announce a “significant” orphan well remediation fund in the coming days. So the federal government has just assumed the environmental liabilities of the oil and gas sector. #cdnpolipic.twitter.com/uox1A54lza
Other measures included in the package were a suspension of federal student loan repayments (made interest-free), and distinctions-based funds for Indigenous communities, along with additional funds for shelters and the homeless. Not everyone is happy with those measures – the small-business lobby says that the measures aren’t enough to stop layoffs because the wage subsidy is only ten percent, which they say isn’t big enough. And in case this weren’t all bad enough, the price that Canadian oil is going for fell to its lowest level ever. So that’s fun.
We also learned that negotiations are ongoing between the parties – and Chambers – to temporarily recall Parliament in order to pass spending measures that were announced yesterday, and that could happen as early as next week, because there is a forty-eight-hour window after the Speaker agrees to the request. Part of the issue is the negotiation around how many MPs to recall – quorum for the Commons is twenty, and fifteen for the Senate – because they want to ensure proportionality. Pablo Rodriguez stated that he also wants to ensure that it’s MPs who don’t have to travel by plane to get here, but Jagmeet Singh was on TV yesterday saying he’s ready to come back, which kind of defeats the purpose, especially if we’re trying to encourage Canadians not to travel.
[Maclean’s has updated their Q&A on symptoms and contacts on where to get help.]
Meanwhile, Heather Scoffield gets a personal perspective on the aid package announced today, while Kevin Carmichael weighs in on the debate around the package – whether it is preferable to favour speed and not precision – by finding that the details are a bit too finnicky, but also notes the “elasticity” of the aid, which can expand or contract as need be as it progresses. In this thread, the Parliamentary Budget Officer finds it not targeted enough (though I’m not sure that it’s his job to weigh in on policy decisions like this). Economist Lindsay Tedds also has some suggestions on how provincial governments can step up given that the federal aid package only goes so far.
Here’s a look behind-the-scenes of the discussions around closing the Canada-US border.
Two new test kits for COVID-19 have been approved for use in Canada, to hopefully speed up testing in provincial labs.
The IRB has suspended in-person refugee hearings for the time being, and CBSA has halted deportation orders.
Here’s a look into emergency federal procurement rules that can be activated to rapidly source things like medical equipment.
The Hill Timesgot a look into the deals made between parties and caucuses in both chambers to pass those four bills and to suspend Parliament.
CBC is suspending their local evening news broadcasts for a central CBC News Network broadcast (in place of Power & Politics), which may breach CRTC rules.
It looks like MPs have agreed on a subcommittee of MPs to help guide the Centre Block renovations, including a list of “do not touch” heritage spaces.
Jason Kenney introduced an aid package for Alberta given that the province is being hit not only with COVID-19, but also plummeting oil prices.
Colby Cosh offers a meditation on the nature of liberal democracy in times of crisis like the one we’re facing.
Susan Delacourt notes that the current pandemic means that the government has stopped talking about citizens as “taxpayers” and framing politics as transactions.
Odds and ends:
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States of public health emergency were declared in Ontario, Alberta, BC, and PEI yesterday, and no doubt more to come, while Justin Trudeau mused that there could be situations where the government may have to invoke the Emergencies Act, so things got pretty serious yesterday. Mind you, his ministers who also were facing the media yesterday also stated that they wouldn’t invoke the Emergencies Act without provincial consultation, and there was some explanation on one of the political shows that it would likely only be invoked because there was some kind of gap in the powers available to one level of government or another if the situation worsens. We’ll see. (Here’s more on what invoking it would mean). Trudeau also said that they may need to temporarily recall Parliament (almost certainly with a minimum quorum of 20 MPs) to pass this or any other particular EI or tax measures, so we’ll have to keep an eye out for that in the coming days. Also announced was up to $5000 loans for those who need help returning to Canada or who need assistance if they can’t get back (and some travel insurance is facing restrictions if people don’t return ASAP).
We’re also expecting the first tranche of stabilization or bridge funding today (not “stimulus”), which is expected to be in the range of some $25 billion. As well, the National Post is reporting that CRA will extend the tax filing deadline by a month, which should be also announced later today.
Meanwhile, Heather Scoffield says that Trudeau needs to act fast to help vulnerable workers, and that today’s aid package will determine just how serious he is about his pledge to have Canadians’ backs. Kevin Carmichael looks into the Bank of Canada’s rationale for the emergency rate cut, and the fact that they have thus far been carrying the weight of trying to reassure the markets while we wait for Bill Morneau’s aid package.
Dear pundits/politicians using the pandemic to push *any* agenda beyond short-term measures to get us past this:
Another day, more social distancing restrictions put into place, with Ontario recommending that all restaurants (with the exception of take-out and delivery) and bars be shut, Calgary declaring a local state of emergency, and more cases mounting including three more deaths at a care facility in British Columbia. Justin Trudeau held a press conference early in the afternoon, where he declared that the border would be closed to non-citizen/permanent resident travellers – erm, except for Americans (and a few other exceptions) – which seems to be an action mostly to placate the those braying for more “decisive action” at this point given that it’s already in the country, and with all arrivals being told to self-isolate, I’m not sure the point. And the American exception may only be for a couple of more days, in large part because of the complex interconnections between the two countries that this can’t be done unilaterally. It also looks like CBSA has gotten their acts together with better screening questions at airports and airport authorities doing more to ensure proper social distancing than the chaos we saw over the weekend, so better late than never, I suppose.
If you’re wondering why the US exemption, it’s probably helpful to imagine not tourists landing in Banff but traffic on the Detroit-Windsor bridge. That is a very complicated border to close https://t.co/jAgNvGpbnD
As for the government’s pledge to help people pay their bills and rent, we are expecting more measures to be announced today, and we’ll see what kinds of policy levers they expect to use. On a broader scope, economists are saying that the measures to stabilize the market right now shouldn’t really be described as stimulus because of the nature of the shock, but that the stimulus will come later. Meanwhile, there is talk about the potential for a sharp rebound later in the year, once the temporary shock of the pandemic wears off.
Meanwhile, here’s an exploration of the uncharted territory that surrounds the invocation of the Quarantine Actand the Emergencies Act (which replaced the War Measures Act), as some have been suggestion, and how those may be a major test around Canadians’ Charter rights.
As the country heads further toward some kind of state of lockdown – school closure announcements went out in Alberta (but not Saskatchewan) – there is a great deal of garment-rending over what is happening at airports in particular, especially since it appears that there were only a handful of CBSA officers staffing the Toronto airport on Saturday night for hundreds of arrivals. There isn’t a lot of visible screening at airports because that’s proven to be largely ineffective (and most places are screening people before they get on planes), and the bigger message is communication around self-isolation, and some of that may depend on where travellers are coming from – it’s being stated that people arriving from countries with few infections aren’t being given as strenuous of warnings. There are complaints that this wasn’t being effectively communicated by CBSA officials over the weekend, or that some of their pamphlets contained dated information, which is possible, especially given that more measures were announced late Friday afternoon, and weekend capacity for many of these agencies is reduced. (Also it’s been recorded that one CBSA officer from the Toronto airport has been diagnosed with COVID-19, and I’m sure this will be the first of many). A lot of this should be about local public health officials’ communications efforts, rather than expecting CBSA to simply do it all, but I’m not sure that everyone who is freaking out online about this is necessarily understanding areas of jurisdiction and responsibility.
Justin Trudeau is set to announce further measures this afternoon following a Cabinet meeting on Sunday evening, which unfortunately saw a group of Cabinet ministers leaving the meeting being fairly inept at communicating that decisions were taken and that they need time to prepare their implementation (as self-righteous journalists and pundits melted down over Twitter). Apparently nobody understands that these is such a thing as capacity issues and that not everything can happen immediately, even in an extraordinary crisis situation as we appear to find ourselves in.
Meanwhile, here’s another Q&A with infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch on what people should and should not be doing for social distancing. As well, here’s a look through some of the pandemic preparedness guides to show what things could look like if we reach a crisis point. Two infectious disease specialists wonder about the efficacy of draconian measures, particularly if they will spark “containment fatigue.”
In a week where the news was coming at you like a firehose, Friday was possibly triple that. I literally sent from one press conference to another for a period of five hours. But to start the day off was the news that the House of Commons was indeed going to be suspended for five weeks (really only the loss of two sitting weeks), and they had arranged to complete passage of the New NAFTA implementation bill first thing, which was fine, because they were already on the last scheduled day of debate and the Senate had already done pre-study. What was a problem was the fact that they proposed two – two! – supply bills worth tens of billions of dollars and rammed them through both houses at all stages with zero debate and zero scrutiny, because the House leaders came to an agreement on them. And while absolutely everyone fell all over themselves to talk about how great it was that the parties all came together to ensure that they acted responsibly in suspending parliament (though I think it was premature), the business of supply is the whole gods damned purpose of Parliament. Instead of it being taken seriously, they rolled over on it, and rammed it through, along with another bill to give the government any additional spending authority it needs without parliamentary oversight for the duration of the suspension. Oh, but don’t worry – they’ve ensured that the Auditor General will keep an eye on things after the money has already been spent. Good job on ensuring that the barn door closes after the horses bolt, guys. You’ve totally got the whole gods damned point of Parliament down pat. There were far better options than a wholesale suspension and abrogation of the fundamental responsibility of parliamentarians, but that’s where we are. You get the slowest of slow claps for this particular move.
Seriously, C-10, C-11, and C-12 aren’t even up on LegisInfo yet, and they’ve all been adopted at all stages.
From then on, it was one after another. Chrystia Freeland and several ministers held a press conference to announce further measures, such as cautioning against all foreign travel, news that they were going to ensure that all international travellers were routed through a smaller number of airports in order to maximize the available resources of CBSA, and the suspension of cruise ship season. Then Justin Trudeau held a presser from outside of Rideau Cottage to update his own situation and to reiterate some of the same messages that were just delivered. And then Bill Morneau, the Governor of the Bank of Canada, and the Superintendent of Financial Institutions held a joint press conference to talk about immediate economic stimulus – including another surprise fifty-point basis cut from the key interest rate – and the promise of yet more fiscal measures to come next week (because they are likely operating flat out and need the weekend to pull the details together). Oh, and the budget date has been postponed until sometime after Parliament resumes, whenever that may be.
“Travellers become less honest about where they’ve been” when borders are closed, which affects contact tracing. https://t.co/k63PDAugKL
Meanwhile, Colby Cosh says that while we’re still awaiting the full impact of COVID-19, the rapid pace of technological development means that this could be the last major global pandemic. Chris Selley cautions about feeling too smug about our healthcare system under the current circumstances. Kevin Carmichael walks through some of the fiscal and monetary measures announced today, and offers thanks to the Bank of Canada for being the rock that Morneau and Trudeau have not been. Heather Scoffield is impressed by the coordination between Morneau, the Bank of Canada and OSFI in staving off “economic hibernation,” and hopes for similar cooperation in combatting COVID-19. Economists Armine Yalnizyan and Jennifer Robson have some suggestions for how to help workers affected by the COVID-19 outbreak. Here’s a thread from Kevin Milligan on the use of EDC and BDC in these kinds of situation.
The pace of COVID-19 news was relentless yesterday, culminating in the news that Sophie Grégoire Trudeau had tested positive for the virus following her trip to the UK, and that the prime minister would be isolated for the next two weeks as a result. He’d already announced earlier in the day that he was self-isolating while his wife was undergoing testing, and that he would be working from home, but it also meant the cancellation of the First Ministers Meeting – to be held later today by phone – and the indefinite postponement of said first ministers meeting with Indigenous leaders. Not to be outdone, Jagmeet Singh also announced that he was self-isolating because he was feeling “unwell.” And while more events get cancelled, Peter MacKay and Erin O’Toole have stated they will suspend public campaign activities for the time being (though one suspects that this will simply escalate into a shitpost war online as they battle for votes in that space).
The big question now is whether or not Parliament will suspend for the coming weeks, and there are moves afoot – the Senate has been recalled to sit tomorrow (they usually don’t sit Fridays), and the talk is that the Commons will pass the New NAFTA tomorrow morning, and send it to the Senate immediately for passage so that if there is a decision to suspend, that will be out of the way. And it should be noted that the Senate did to pre-study on the bill while it was still in the Commons, so that will expedite the passage in the Senate, provided that twelve different senators don’t feel the need to give useless Second Reading speeches (because that’s a real danger these days).
The Senate is taking preventative measures around COVID-19. Hearing that the House of Commons may adopt similar measures tomorrow. #SenCA#cdnpolipic.twitter.com/pL3FRy6sc2
Once again, Maclean’s has resources on symptoms and how to get tested.
Meanwhile, Paul Wells gives a decent reading of the year to date, and makes the case that First Ministers’ meetings are pretty useless these days so the cancellation of this one is not a big loss. Heather Scoffield ensures that you know where to place the blame for the markets crashing and wiping out retirement savings. And here’s infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch on what we can expect over the next two weeks.
After news that the prime minister was in self-isolation after his wife was sick, and Jagmeet Singh also stated that he was self-isolating after feeling “unwell,” the business of parliament carried on. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he gave his best wishes to the PM — for which he got applause — and then demanded more “decisive action” and claimed that passengers arriving from Italy were not screened, ignoring the pertinent information that everyone was screened before they were allowed to board. Chrystia Freeland addressed all Canadians to trust in the advice of medical experts, that things will get worse for it gets better, and that we are well prepared. Scheer raised potential shortages around equipment like ventilators, to which Freeland stated that the federal government was leading a bulk national procurement effort and they were working together with provinces and territories. Scheer lamented the lack of mandatory screening, quarantines or travel restrictions and demanded the evidence for those decisions. Freeland gave a bromide about our public health system, and assured him that enhanced measures were in place, and that they were following the advice of science. Alain Rayes demanded a plan to prevent large public gatherings, and Freeland repeated her first assurance for all Canadians in French. Rayes then demanded more “concrete measures” for workers who lose their jobs as a result of the outbreak, and Freeland read the changes to EI and promise for new measures as necessary. Christine Normandin led off for the Bloc, and after wishing the PM well, she demanded more resources for border screenings, for which Freeland addressed the PM’s situation, that he wasn’t sick but waiting for his wife’s results. Normandin again demanded “real” screening measures, and Freeland again read that they were following all public health advice. Peter Julian led off for the NDP, and again demanded that every worker who has to self-quarantine gets financial resort, to which Freeland reiterated the $1 billion COVID-19 package and that they were rolling out new measures. Rachel Blaney repeated the question with added condescension, to which Freeland calmly repeated the same response.
