With little progress on the protests and blockades across the country, and with it being proto-PMQ day, it promised to be a complete gong show for Question Period. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he quoted François Legault’s demand for a timeline to ending the blockades. Justin Trudeau said that the situation was unacceptable, but they were going to pursue a peaceful solution. Scheer raised the 1500 temporary layoffs for VIA Rail and CN Rail employees and demanded a timeline, and Trudeau reiterated that it was unacceptable but they would resolve a peaceful solution. Scheer then called Trudeau weak and demanded a deadline, for which Trudeau reiterated that they understood that this was difficult, but they needed a peaceful, lasting solution. Scheer railed about the “radical protesters,” and Trudeau repeated his same answer. Scheer then misused the phrase “rule of law,” and then tried to oh-so-cleverly insinuate that the minister was considering withdrawing the RCMP instead of sending them to dismantle the blockades and that it too was interference, and Trudeau called out Scheer’s rhetorical games. Yves-François Blanchet was up next for the Bloc, and he wondered about the nature of the forum for dialogue with First Nations leaders, to which Trudeau said this is a complex situation that they would resolve peacefully. Blanchet asked if they considered withdrawing the RCMP and replacing it with an Indigenous Force, to which Trudeau said it was a possibility that needed to be discussed with the province and the community. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and demanded that Trudeau meet with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs, appoint a special mediator, and withdraw the RCMP, to which Trudeau replied that the minister was waiting for them to meet with her. Singh then concern trolled about the spending on the Trans Mountain project as money that could be better spent, to which Trudeau defended the project as helping to fund the green transition.
Tag Archives: RCMP
QP: Demanding to end the blockades
In the wake of the statements in the Commons earlier this morning on the ongoing protests and blockades across the country, the benches were full and all of the leaders were present for QP. Andrew Scheer led off, mini-lectern on desk, and he read some of his same condemnation for the government not dealing with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs in favour of those who support Coastal GasLink. Justin Trudeau noted that they are concerned with dialogue, and that he invited other parliamentary leaders to discuss the matter but not Scheer because he disqualified himself after this morning’s statement. Scheer insisted that Trudeau was elevating “professional protesters” with those Indigenous communities that wanted these projects, and demanded a date for the blockades to come down, and Trudeau reminded him that they need solutions for the long term. Scheer decried the lack of action, and Trudeau said that they needed to ensure there was long-term partnership so that Canadians could rely on their transportation network rather than short-term violent action. Scheer again tried to insist that Trudeau was pandering to activists, and Trudeau reminded him that the Conservatives couldn’t get projects built because they would pick and choose who they would engage with. Scheer got increasingly breathy and high-pitched as he demanded action, and Trudeau reminded him that five years ago, Canadians chose parties who were committed to reconciliation. Yves-François Blanchet was up next for the Bloc, and he expressed his concern that Québec and Canada’s image was one where Indigenous communities were opposed to development, and wanted some clarity on the timeline for when blockades would be lifted. Trudeau stated that they were still committed to dialogue, and that was the first step to lifting the barricades. Blanchet asked for future meetings on the issue, and Trudeau said that he was open to that — for parties that wanted to engage constructively. Jagmeet Singh was up next, and demanded to know when the federal government would meet with the Wet’suwet’en hereditary chiefs, but they were waiting on them. Singh wanted concrete action now, but pivoted to record-keeping on Indigenous kids in care, go which Trudeau reminded him that child and family services were provincial jurisdiction and they were working to devolve that to First Nations themselves.
Roundup: Holding off on enforcement
Indigenous protests continue across the country in support of those protesting the Coastal GasLink pipeline, with not only rail disruptions, but also blockades around legislatures and city halls (Halifax city hall being a target that nearly kept Chrystia Freeland from the building). Thus far, police have not cleared any of them despite warnings that enforcing the various court orders will be imminent, and even some Indigenous leaders are calling on their people to end the blockades. That doesn’t seem to have persuaded any of them just yet. (The Star hears from protesters themselves here).
While Jagmeet Singh is calling on Justin Trudeau to return from his foreign trip early to deal with the situation, and Andrew Scheer hinting that he wants politicians to direct the RCMP to enforce those court orders right away (which is a very bad idea and has led to past flashpoints with Indigenous communities), Trudeau says he and his Cabinet are monitoring the situation but are content to let the provinces continue to handle those issues that are within their jurisdiction – as well he should. I suspect that one of the reasons why the RCMP and OPP are holding off on any enforcement actions just yet are because moving too soon will simply generate more sympathy for the protesters and possibly escalate the situation across the country, whereas waiting another day or two will lose those protesters any sympathy as the inconvenience becomes too much for most Canadians, and that most of the protesters will get bored and go home on their own before too long.
Meanwhile, Susan Delacourt remarks on the impossible situation that Justin Trudeau has been placed in by this situation, while Chris Selley wonders how we can be considered a grown-up country if we can allow the disruptions to continue without treating it like a serious situation that it is for many people affected by it. As well, here is an explainer from last year about the dispute within the Wet’suwet’en First Nation, and how that affects the duty to consult.
Teck Frontier mine
I wanted to point you to this piece, written by energy economist Andrew Leach and environmental law professor Martin Olszynski, which puts a lot more facts and context on the table regarding the Teck Frontier mine application and what is really being considered by Cabinet. In particular, because market conditions have changed so much since the project was first proposed in 2011, and the (flawed) economic impact analysis along with it, it means that the expected economic benefits are far, far less than what was initially promised (when they assumed oil at $95/barrel; it’s currently hovering around $50/barrel), and that will have to weigh in on the government’s decision. After all, the decision tends to boil down to how much economic benefit is worth the significant adverse environmental impact of the project – and it will be significant. And if the benefits are far below what they were initially sold to be, does that make it worthwhile to approve the project knowing that the benefits won’t necessarily outweigh the impact. It’s certainly worth thinking on – especially as the provincial government is now casting aspersions on the First Nation that is balking after the lack of ongoing engagement, and the rhetoric continues to heat up to outsized proportions.
The size of the bet we are making on the long term viability of these projects is staggering. What happens if Teck doesn't have the cash flow later in mine life to make its security payments or to fund the expected $3b in liabilities on the site AFTER it stops producing?
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) February 12, 2020
Roundup: Protests and impossible demands
The protests in support of the hereditary chiefs who are against the BC Coastal GasLink pipeline continue to disrupt the rail corridors in central Canada, though that may soon come to an end as the OPP has stated that the situation has become “dire” and threatened enforcement of court injunctions soon enough. Rail service has been cancelled for both freight and passengers, which is going to cause some economic disruption, especially as other sympathetic protesters have been attempting to blockade ports on both coasts. The federal government maintains that they are very concerned about what is happening, but state that these remain areas of provincial jurisdiction, and that’s something that we can’t simply handwave away.
And this is something that should be remarked upon a little more – the demands that the federal government get involved with the Coastal GasLink situation are essentially saying that the government should ignore the constitution, or that when a group feels aggrieved by the provincial government that they can then turn around and demand that the federal government do something, like asking your mother for permission after your father says no. Meanwhile, some of the protesters – like those staging a “sit-in” in the Department of Justice building, are making novel demands of the minister that are outside of his powers, and which don’t respond to how government operates in Canada – particularly given that the RCMP operates at arm’s length and doesn’t take orders from the justice minister or any Cabinet minister. In this case, they are enforcing a court order, which again, the government can’t simply step in and make disappear. We have a rule of law. And yes, the situation is complicated by the fact that there aren’t treaties in this area of BC, which means there is uncertainty as to the rights and title question (which have been under negotiation for years, if not decades), but the justice minister can’t wave a magic wand. Real life doesn’t work like that, and for this group to declare that if he doesn’t wave a magic wand by today that “reconciliation is dead,” well, it’s more than a little precious.
Meanwhile, these protests are giving rise to other voices who want to exploit the situation, like Conservative leadership hopeful who says that if he was prime minister, he would do something about it. He won’t say what – but by gum he’d do something! Jason Kenney, meanwhile, is trying to build the case that this is somehow a “dress rehearsal” for future pipeline protests, and calling these actions “ecocolonial” (whatever that means). Meanwhile, his environment minister is slagging the First Nation chief who has raised concerns about Teck Frontier and the lack of engagement by the provincial government, saying that it’s just about money and the government has to worry about taxpayers. Of course, unless Kenney and company don’t tone it down, things are bound to get worse because of the underlying complexity, so perhaps people need to take a deep breath.
Unlike what @JasonNixonAB
completely mischaracterized to the media yesterday, ACFN is not "primarily about money". We are fiercely protective of our land for future generations. Here's our letter to Minister Wilkinson re: the Teck Frontier project. pic.twitter.com/j1yq46TvMD— Athabasca Chipewyan First Nation (@ACFN_KaiTaile) February 11, 2020
Roundup: The meaningless debate over Teck Frontier
The debate over approval of the Teck Frontier oilsands mine is reaching completely absurd levels, right up to warning that this will be an existential crisis for Confederation if the federal government rejects it. There is a fight brewing within the Liberal caucus, and Jason Kenney’s bombast is back to its dangerous stoking of anger for promises that nobody can deliver on. Conservative talking points, as with Kenney’s, are full of complete mistruths about the proposed emissions targets of the mine if it goes ahead, and they exaggerate the initial environmental assessment, which was skeptical about many of the claims the company made about their emissions. That Teck has promised to try and be carbon neutral by 2050 is also something that should be taken with a massive grain of salt because they haven’t outlined how they’ll get there, and it sounds an awful lot like technosalvation – that they hope to develop some miracle technology between now and then.
And it’s just so stupid because it’s unlikely that the project would even go ahead even if it were granted approval, and yet this is somehow supposed to be the great saviour of the Alberta economy. It won’t be. Teck has stated that even if they get approval, they would need another partner, more pipeline capacity, and the price of oil to be at least $75/barrel, and it’s currently sitting around $50, and unlikely to start climbing anytime soon as the global supply glut continues, and the shale boom in the US continues to drive down prices.
Nevertheless, a number of outlets are reporting that the federal government is preparing a fiscal rescue package in the event that it doesn’t get approval, which people are already panning as tone deaf, and the death knell of investment in Canada, but not one of them is looking at the current economics – that even if approved, it’s not financially viable, and as Andrew Leach points out, there are plenty of other approved projects that are not moving ahead because it’s not economically viable. Should the government prepare fiscal rescue packages for that eventuality too? The problems in the province and in the sector are not the fault of the current federal government, as much as people like to blame them. It’s a bigger, structural problem that has been decades in the making, and the ship isn’t going to be turned on a dime. Blaming Trudeau won’t solve anything.
Here's what Suncor did today, at the project that is closest in every respect to Frontier. A $2.8 billion write-down on its share of the project. Pro-rated, that's a $5.25 billion dollar decrease in the value of the project. That's ~ $1.25b decrease in Teck's share of it.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) February 7, 2020
Suncor's realized value for Fort Hills bitumen (a good proxy for Frontier) was $48.96. Their cash operating costs were $28.90 $28.65. That doesn't include maintenance capital or any return on capital in place.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) February 7, 2020
Pro-rate that up to Fort Hills size, and it's not getting any return on $20b initial capex in 40 years.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) February 7, 2020
Meanwhile, if you think this is somehow related to the former Bill C-69 and its environmental assessment process, it’s worth a reminder that this assessment process is under the process that the Harper government put into place, and even then, it’s not like this project is getting anywhere. That should be another signal.
The regulatory framework around Frontier, CEAA 2012, explicitly continued political decision making rather than technocratic ones. If you don't like that, I can think of a few people with whom you can discuss those choices.
— Andrew Leach (@andrew_leach) February 7, 2020
QP: Melting down over court challenges
While the prime minister was off meeting with big city mayors before heading off to Ethiopia, Andrew Scheer was indeed present, and he led off and he read a bunch of complete lies about the supposed plan to “license” media, to which Steven Guilbeault, who reminded him that the panel recommendations specifically excluded news media and the government would not regulate news media. Scheer insisted that wasn’t good enough and the report somehow would impact free speech, and Guilbeault repeated his answer in English. Scheer tried again, and Guilbeault said that he would be happy to sit down with the opposition when they tabled a bill. Scheer then moved onto UNDRIP, and claimed it was an effective veto on energy projects, to which David Lametti said that they were moving ahead with legislation that would be co-developed with Indigenous people. Scheer tried to use the scare tactics of veto powers, and Lametti suggested that Scheer look at BC’s UNDRIP legislation and see that it is not a veto. Alain Therrien led off for the Bloc, and he railed about the Court Challenges Programme funding a challenge against Quebec’s “secularism” bill, for which Guilbeault said that the government doesn’t have any control over that funding, and that they Bloc should understand the notion of independence. Therrien asked if the government supported the challenge, to which Pablo Rodriguez said that the legislation is being challenged by Quebeckers and that the government was following with interest. Jagmeet Singh was up next for the NDP, and demanded changes to the federal bankruptcy laws to prioritise workers, to which Navdeep Bains said that they had made some commitments in the last budget. Singh then demanded to know how much had been spent on legal fees for the challenge around the First Nations compensation, to which David Lametti said that reports of legal fees are calculated according to a set formula.
Roundup: Rushing a resurrected bill
The government made good on their promise yesterday to re-introduce Rona Ambrose’s bill on sexual assault training for judges, and to their credit, they tabled an amended bill that does take into account most of the criticisms of the previous version of the bill that likely would have rendered it unconstitutional because it interfered with judicial independence in pretty much every respect. (See my story here). Not that you’d know it from some of the reporting – the CBC in particular has been absolutely allergic in looking into what the objections to the bill were, and why they made it unworkable and unconstitutional, preferring to blame the Senate as being an “old boys’ club” rather than objecting to an unworkable and unconstitutional bill – you know, like they’re supposed to.
But despite every party supporting the bill, that didn’t stop them from getting cute with it. The Conservatives, for example, suggested in Question Period that the government amend the bill so that it also includes training for Parole Board members – which is out of step for the language in the bill. Because, seriously, the Canadian Judicial Council is not going to provide that training, as the bill stipulates that they do for judges. And then Jagmeet Singh decided he too was going to be cute, after QP, and move that the House vote to pass the bill at all stages in one fell swoop, with no scrutiny. The Conservatives blocked that (possibly to put on a show about their floated notion about Parole Board officers), but seriously, Singh was completely offside in moving the motion in the first place.
The previous version of the bill was fatally flawed, but it passed the House of Commons unanimously because it hadn’t been properly studied. They sent it to the Status of Women committee, which has no expertise in the legal system and how it operates, and they focused on survivor-based training, which actually turns out to be problematic because it could potentially bias the training, particularly when it comes to the presumption of innocence before the law. It wasn’t until the bill reached the Senate that its flaws were actually discussed, but hey, it sounded like a good idea so all MPs passed it without thinking. Let me be clear – that’s a terrible way to pass laws, and it’s MPs abandoning their roles. As a former criminal defence lawyer, you would think that Singh might appreciate the problems inherent in the bill, particularly when it comes to bias and judicial independence – the latter of which I challenged him on in a scrum after QP – and he was completely oblivious to it, mouthing platitudes about sexual assault survivors. That’s not how Parliament is supposed to work. It would be great if our opposition parties could do their jobs, but it increasingly feels like it’s too much to ask. (The same goes for you, CBC).
I’m not necessarily against this. But it is not such a clear issue. Judicial independence is important. And this bill should be fully studied and debated. What about mandatory education on issues of race, marginalization, and systemic discrimination? Wrongful convictions? https://t.co/55rWj23cKT
— Michael Spratt (@mspratt) February 4, 2020
Roundup: Giving credence to nonsense
As the Conservative leadership race starts to heat up, we’re hearing Erin O’Toole reiterate his neo-colonial “CANZUK” nonsense, and aspiring narcissist Rick Peterson has been all over talking about his “flat tax” proposal without giving any concrete numbers or context as to the trade-offs of that plan. And of course, some UK media has picked upon on O’Toole’s proposal in the wake of Brexit, giving it undue credibility – which is a problem in and of itself.
https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1223959683528101889
So economist Kevin Milligan actually crunched the numbers for the aspiring narcissist Peterson, and lo, it’s not pretty.
https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1224011123009249281
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1224103928096182272
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1224144132873961473
https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1224146058088865794
The only thing the federal government would do would be to send cheques to individuals and other levels of government. And presumably the people in charge of sending them out would work for free.
— Stephen Gordon (@stephenfgordon) February 2, 2020
In other words, it’s not novel or a “bold idea” – it’s hokum that we’re giving a free pass. Let’s do better than this.
QP: Putting the heat on Blair
While Justin Trudeau fled the capital to go sell auto workers the merits of the New NAFTA over in Brampton, Andrew Scheer was elsewhere. Candice Bergen led off with the story of the murder of a sex worker of a person on parole, and demanded a denunciation of the Board’s actions. Bill Blair reminded her that an investigation has been launched into the matter. Bergen asked about MasterCard getting $50 million from the government, to which Mélanie Joly said that the government was investing into a cyber-security centre. Bergen said that MasterCard can afford to pay for their own cyber-security, and bashed the investment again, and Joly responded about the importance of job creation. Luc Berthold was up next to ask about the Auditor General’s budget, to which Jean-Yves Duclos effused about the Middle Class before citing that they would work with the Auditor General. Berthold asked again in French, and Duclos responded with the record on growth and job creation. Yves-François Blanchet was up next to worry about Teck Frontier Mine destroying the Paris Agreement, and Jonathan Wilkinson responded that they were still making their determination on the environmental assessment. Blanchet also worried that said mine would require new pipelines and wondered if they were afraid of saying no to Jason Kenney, to which Wilkinson repeated that they were still considering it. Jagmeet Singh was up for the NDP, to once again demand limiting the tax break in order to fund dental care, and Bill Morneau reminded Singh that their tax cuts have benefited 20 million Canadians. Singh asked again in French, and got much the same response.
It’s a day that ends in y, so the NDP are demanding programmes that are under provincial jurisdiction. #QP
— Dale Smith (@journo_dale) January 30, 2020
Roundup: No metric to measure success
The inevitable has happened with this government’s too-clever-by-half branding of their associate finance minister, and she has essentially been caught out by the easiest trap imaginable. The Conservatives submitted an Order Paper question asking for a definition of “middle class” by which the government could measure the success of its efforts at ensuring their prosperity, and lo, they were told that there is no measure that the government uses. Which is kind of embarrassing for a government that prides itself on data and metrics – that’s one of the reasons why they actually bit the bullet and decided on the Market-Basket Measure of poverty as their official definition, because that allowed them to track the success of their programmes in alleviating it (and yes, programmes like the Canada Child Benefit have had a measurable impact using these kinds of data). But what they can do for poverty, they can’t do for the Middle Class™.
Of course, we all know that it’s because “middle class” isn’t an economic definition to this government, but a feel-good branding exercise. It’s the Middle Class™ And Those Working Hard To Join It, because we all know that everyone thinks they’re middle class (whether or not they have ponies), and most especially people on the wealthier end of the scale in this country. It’s all about a feeling, or a hand-wavey metric about having kids in hockey (an upper-class pursuit in this country). And this lack of a definition is exactly why this minister is the Minister of Middle Class™ Prosperity®, because it means nothing. It’s a trademarked slogan, transparently winking to Canadians about how this is how they plan to address the discontent underlying the populist movements taking place across the government – hoping that if they can reassure these voters that they’re being care of and not left behind, that they’re being heard, that somehow, it’ll keep the populist forces at bay. I’m not sure that it will work, but it’s blatantly happening, so we should all be aware that this is part of their plan.