Tag Archives: Refugees

Roundup: More Bernier fallout

Posted on by

Because we can’t stop talking about the Maxime Bernier “ouster,” if it can really be called that since it was more a demotion than anything, but it still got all of the tongues wagging, and all of the reporters cornering every Conservative they could find. And most of those Conservatives downplayed the whole thing, Erin O’Toole going so far as to say that hey, there are other shadow cabinet changes coming so no big deal. The underlying message was that Bernier “broke his word” about the book chapter, which is a semantic game, but given some of the various dynamics in play, it’s hard not to try and find additional drama into the whole affair.

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/1006872600994123777

https://twitter.com/acoyne/status/1007085698803949568

That Rob Silver tweet may be even closer to home than most people want to admit. I have to say that there have been some pretty spectacular expectations heaped on Bernier, particularly because he speaks to a certain slice of the party, but perhaps in a more superficial way than they want to believe. After all, many of the Ayn Rand-readers are desperate to attach themselves to someone in the party who represents them (never mind that this isn’t a party of libertarians or even economic conservatives, but right-flavoured populists), so he was someone that they could pin those hopes to, ignoring a lot of what he actually said and did. His lack of judgment when he was foreign affairs minister under the Harper government was stunning, both in his intemperate comments in Afghanistan, or with the security of documents with his then-girlfriend. During the leadership campaign, he would sign off on social media campaigns that dogwhistling to MRAs before claiming he didn’t know about the connotations of “red pills” and so on (and knowing who was running that campaign, they couldn’t not know what it meant). And his constant self-promotion in opposition to Scheer post-leadership is another sign of poor judgment. And really, we shouldn’t discount this particular bit of reasoning.

In further analysis on the whole brouhaha, John Ivison keeps his ear to the ground in the caucus and wonders if Bernier’s ouster from shadow cabinet may force a rift in the party given how close the leadership vote was. Chantal Hébert notes that it was probably a matter of time before things with Bernier came to a head (as she suggests he’s not too well-liked among his Quebec colleagues) and that the by-election timing made it something Scheer couldn’t ignore. Andrew MacDougall sees this as a failing by Scheer to manage his caucus, not properly communicating with Bernier when necessary, and keeping him outside of the fold at a time when he should have drawn him in to get his cooperation on the issue at a time when it’s under attack by the likes of Trump. Andrew Coyne similarly sees this as a failing by Scheer, but for the fact that he has bought into the line that caucus must sing from a single song sheet, particularly on an indefensible policy like Supply Management. Colby Cosh sees not only political games from Bernier, but explicit quid pro quo from Scheer for his dairy supporters who (allegedly) put him over the top in the race (though I’m not sure we have any actual proof of this), and that those dairy lobbyists have successfully leveraged intra-party dynamics to their advantage.

Continue reading →

QP: Misrepresenting the Fraser Institute

Posted on by

It being caucus day, all of the leaders were present, and what a day of proto-PMQs it would be.  Andrew Scheer led off, worrying about how much carbon taxes would cost Canadians, and he demanded to know how much it would cost families. Justin Trudeau said he would respond to that in a moment, but first wanted to thank the leader of the opposition, all MPs, and all Canadians for their solidarity in the face of trade difficulties with the US. Scheer said that Conservatives would always support measures to keeping markets open, and then began the smug crowing about Ford’s win in Ontario as a demand to cut carbon taxes. Trudeau reached for a script to decry that the Conservatives didn’t learn anything after ten failed years. Scheer insisted that a growing number of provinces are standing up to carbon taxes, to which Trudeau reminded him that Canadians rejected that approach two-and-a-half years ago, where they did nothing about the environment while having no economic growth to show for it, which contrasted his government’s approach. Scheer switched topics to the irregular border crossers, and Trudeau assured him that the system was working, that all rules were enforced, and didn’t want people to be subject to Conservative fear-mongering. Scheer concern trolled that the government was putting one group of refugees against another — doing exactly the same in his framing — and Trudeau called him out on it, while noting that the previous government cut CBSA and refugee healthcare, and created backlogs that they were still dealing with. Guy Caron led for the NDP, raising the concerns of a BC First Nation that wants to  built a solar farm instead of a pipeline, to which Trudeau took up a script to say that the NDP only listen to those who agree with them, while his government listened and included that particular band. Caron repeated the question in French, and Trudeau read the same response in French. Alexandre Boulerice cited a Cambridge study that cited that the oil bubble would burst between now and 2050, and demanded investments in renewable energy. Trudeau took up a new script to say that they can create jobs while protecting the environment, and listed programmes they have invested in. Murray Rankin reiterated the question on renewables in English, and Trudeau didn’t need a script to retread his usual talking points about creating jobs while protecting the environment. 

Continue reading →

QP: Sunset clause off the table?

Posted on by

Although Justin Trudeau was present for QP today, Andrew Scheer was not, once again. Lisa Raitt led off, asking succinctly if it was true that Trump took the five-year sunset clause off of the negotiating table. Trudeau got up to first thank the opposition and all Canadian for standing together, and after some applause, noted that they are still negotiating but they would not accept a sunset clause. Raitt wanted a clear yes or no if it was taken off the table, and Trudeau spoke around the question, talking about his meeting on Friday, but would not say if it was taken off that table. Raitt said that she would have to take it as a yes, and worried about the trade war on families in her riding, before demanding that carbon taxes and payroll taxes be scrapped. Trudeau said that no, the sunset clause was not taken off the table, before talking about how tariffs would hurt American workers as well as Canadian ones. Alain Rayes took over in French, and concern trolled about the deficit and the drop in foreign investment, and worried how the prime minister could say he was good for the economy. Trudeau deployed his well-worn talking point about Canadians choosing investment instead of austerity. Rayes listed areas where the Fraser Institute says that taxes went up, to which Trudeau reminded him that the Fraser report didn’t take the Canada Child Benefit into account. Guy Caron led off for the NDP, asking about a First Nation band building a solar farm on their land while a pipeline crosses it, framing it as competing visions, to which Trudeau took up a script to rad that the Federal Court of Appeal started that the previous government didn’t adequately consult First Nations and his government did. Caron reiterated in French, and this time Trudeau read that they used to support Rachel Notley’s plan, before listing similar measures his government is taking. Alexandre Boulerice railed that they were not investing in a fair energy transition, and Trudeau reiterated his Notley’s-filled script. Jenny Kwan railed that CPP may invest in the pipeline, to which Trudeau repeated Notley’s plan, yet again.

Continue reading →

QP: Solidarity in the face of Trump – more or less

Posted on by

Following the melodrama of the G7 summit over the weekend, the PM decided to take the day off from QP, but so did all of the other leaders, so make of that what you will. Candice Bergen led off, saying that they stood together with workers, and wanted to know what the PM’s plan was to resolve this impasse with the Americans. Dominic LeBlanc got up to respond, thanking Canadians for standing together to protect workers, and that there was no national security threat, and everyone gave hearty applause. Bergen then worried about whether the deficit took into account a potential aid package for these affected workers, and LeBlanc noted that any tariffs would also hurt American workers, and they were consulting on the sectors to see how they could help. Bergen said that they could immediately ratify the TPP, scrap the carbon tax, and eliminate trade barriers between provinces, and to invited them to work with Conservatives. François-Philippe Champagne said that they would have a TPP ratification bill tabled before the summer. Alain Rayes got up to repeat the deficit question in French, got the same response from LeBlanc in French, and then they went another round of the same. Ruth Ellen Brosseau led off for the NDP, asking the government to provide a unified response with all parties against Trump. LeBlanc said that obviously yes, they would work with all members to protect workers and ensure that retaliatory measures are proportionate. Brosseau then raise the leak from the existing Trans Mountain pipeline and that the government failed in its consultation of First Nations. Marc Garneau responded by reading that there were strong laws on pipelines on polluters paying for problems. Nathan Cullen repeated the question in English, with added sanctimony, to which Jim Carr noted that by repeating the polluter-pay principle in the Pipeline Safety Act. Cullen read a statement from a First Nations chief about the quality of the consultations, and Carr fumbled in his response about the NDP trying to speak on behalf of First Nations.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Sore loserism and entrails

Posted on by

If you had any money riding on who would be the first to whine that Thursday’s election result was a signal that we need electoral reform, and if you chose Elizabeth May, well, collect your winnings. I spent much of Friday responding to this nonsense, but I will reiterate a couple of points – that if you blame the system because your party did not do better, you’re already missing the point. We’ve seen it happen time and again that when a party has a message that resonates, it’s the non-voters who come out, not the committed party base, and we had increased turnout on Thursday night which meant that people were motivated to throw the bums out. Similarly with Trudeau in 2015 – a significant uptick in voter turnout because they had something that they wanted to vote for/throw the bums out. This matters, and whinging that the system isn’t fair is missing the point entirely. The system works. It needs to be allowed to function the way it was intended. What doesn’t help is using a false number like the popular vote in order to make it look like the system is unfair in order to justify your disappointment is the epitome or sore loserism.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1005214910966452224

In terms of reading Thursday night’s entrails, here’s Paul Wells taking a detailed look at the three campaigns and how each succeeded and failed in their own ways. CBC has a look at how Ford’s use of simple and vague messaging made him look sensible to an angry population. Robert Hiltz looks at the ways in which the Liberals defeated themselves by their craven attempts to hold onto power. Nevertheless, Wynne’s surprise concession days before the election may actually have saved the seats the Liberals did win, according to exit polling done, so that particular strategic calculation may have actually paid off.

Jen Gerson wonders if Doug Ford’s win isn’t akin to a Monkey’s Paw curse – getting what you wish for at a terrible price. Andrew MacDougall wonders what Ford’s win means for modern conservatism given that Ford isn’t really a small-c conservative, nor were his outlandish promises. Similarly, Chris Selley looks at the phenomenon of Ford Nation, the Harper Conservatives that surround him, and the way that Andrew Scheer has suddenly attached himself to the cause. Andrew Coyne (once you get past the griping about the electoral system) warns politicians and pundits not to overread Thursday’s results (hey federal Conservatives and your crowing in QP on Friday – this especially means you), and further wonders if Ford will pull a “cupboard is bare” routine to keep carbon pricing to use the revenues. Jason Kirby mocks up what Ford’s first speech might look like, by referencing earlier speeches about bare cupboards.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Ford’s win, and echoes of 2011

Posted on by

So, that was an election, Ontario. I’m sure we’ll be full of hot takes, followed by the ritual lamentations about vote-splitting, and there will be a bunch of sanctimonious claptrap about “strategic voting,” but in the meantime, I am reminded of 2011. Why? Because with a Progressive Conservative government and an NDP official opposition, we may find that for the next little while, we’ll see a number of those MPPs talking about how great it is that there’s some real choice in visions in Ontario, and isn’t it great that those mushy-middle Liberals are out of the picture? And while we got a bunch of that in 2011, we also quickly found that the NDP MPs that did get elected in their big wave were not all up to par, and they went on an aggressive lockdown orchestrated by the leader’s office (or interim leader, as the case quickly proved to be). And it was that lack of real competence that ensured that the Liberals still in the chamber quickly became the grown-ups in the room. Question Period didn’t really start until then-interim leader Bob Rae stood up, and he ran circles around both the opposition and the government, frankly. And I suspect that it had something to do with how the Liberals were able to rebuild as quickly as they did – because people quickly started to clamour for a centrist vision that they could rally around. But it also didn’t happen without a lot of hard work, and a leader who emphasised the importance of that. We’ll have to see where the Liberals in Ontario land. As of the time I’m writing this, there is enough fluctuation still that we’re not sure if they will keep official party status at eight seats, and with Kathleen Wynne’s resignation as party leader, that leaves it open to see how these Liberals will get their acts together to provide that centrist voice (which was somewhat lacking under Wynne – who did win her own seat, incidentally). And in the meantime, here’s some advice from Jean Charest about rebuilding a devastated party.

Meanwhile, in hot takes, Justin Ling looks at the hard time that Doug Ford will have when it comes to trying to dismantle the cap-and-trade system in the province as well as fight the federal carbon price backstop, while Chris Selley notes that this is a bit of a blank slate because we have no coherent vision of what the party’s vision really is after their unrealistic platform. John Ivison asserts that this is the dawn of a new era of combative federalism, with Ford voting against everything coming from Ottawa. Paul Wells looks at the immediate problems for both Ford and Justin Trudeau coming out of last night’s election.

Continue reading →

QP: Bothered by bonuses

Posted on by

While a torrential downpour descended on the nation’s capital, he third-last week of the spring sitting got underway. Andrew Scheer led off in French, mini-lectern on desk, decrying the “failure” of the government to buy the Trans Mountain pipeline and the revelation that executives were getting million-dollar bonuses. Justin Trudeau took up a script to read about their decision to stand up for workers, but would not comment on the internal workings of a company. Scheer switched to English to repeat the question, with added verbosity. Trudeau had no script this time to reiterate the same thing, and adding that public investment has long been necessary to develop resources in Canada. Scheer switched topics, offering some revisionist history in saying that they immediately supported the government in retaliating against the imposition of US tariffs, but worried that our measures wouldn’t come into effect until July 1st. Trudeau reminded him that they wanted to consult to ensure that no Canadians would be inadvertently hurt by these measures. They went another round of the same, and Scheer switched topics again to Iran, and the recent tweets by the Supreme Leader, to which Trudeau took up a script to read some pro forma condemnation of Iran’s actions. Ruth Ellen Brosseau led for the NDP, reading some condemnation about those Kinder Morgan bonuses, and Trudeau, sans script, gave the response about the $15 billion Canada loses annually by not getting a world price for oil. Brosseau worried that the pipeline trampled on the rights of First Nations, to which Trudeau suggested that they did a lot of consulting on the issue. Georgina Jolibois reiterated the question in English, and Trudeau said that they listened to all First Nations, including those who disagreed with them, and they tried to do what they to allay concerns. Nathan Cullen got up to reiterate the question of Kinder Morgan bonuses with added sanctimony, to which Trudeau repeated the $15 billion talking point and the fact that it fit within their climate plan.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Justifying a belligerent tone

Posted on by

Two days after the American tariff announcements, and I found myself still struck by the tone that the federal Conservatives have adopted with this, squarely blaming Trudeau rather than the uncertainty engine known as Trump, and engaging in the same kind of disingenuous narrative-building to justify their stance. In particular, they have been trying to claim that when Trudeau made his tour of steel and aluminium plants earlier in the year, that it was a “victory tour,” which is vastly different from how I remember it. Back then, it was about reassurance and the prime minister wanting to tell them that he had their backs and given that the government was ready for these tariffs to happen and had a package of retaliatory measures ready to go, it means that they didn’t take the reprieve for granted – entirely negating the premise of the Conservatives’ attack lines. Not that facts matter. They are also insistent that the Trudeau government has allowed itself to get “distracted” by the feel-good chapters around labour and gender in NAFTA negotiations, which again, is novel if you pay the slightest amount of attention to what’s been going on. But this isn’t about truth – this is about building their narrative that Trudeau is a dilettante who is incompetent and that the Conservatives are the real grown-ups in the room (despite evidence to the contrary). And because people have let Scheer and company lie with impunity on all sorts of files for months now, they feel emboldened to take this course of action, despite how gauche or out of step with other conservative voices in the country it may be, because they see this as their long-term game plan. And we’ll see if any of those voices call them out on it.

As for the impact of the tariffs, it turns out that they could have a far less detrimental impact on Canada’s aluminium industry because it exports more product to the US than we do steel, and America’s own smelters are older and less efficient than Canadian ones, meaning that these tariffs won’t do anything to help support the US industry, and American producers say that they could do more harm than good. Steel, of course, is a different story. The whole tariff issue, meanwhile, could mean that the lock that the American arms industry has on our military procurement may be at an end, and that our Forces may start looking to Europe for equipment instead – something that may actually be more affordable, but the tendency had been to buy from American producers under the guise of “interoperability” with American forces. As for the American companies facing retaliatory tariffs, well, they’re still learning about them, but most don’t seem too concerned. At least not yet. And many Republicans and businesses are lashing out at Trump for the move – including anchors at Fox Business.

In further reaction, Andrew Coyne believes that the sheer size of the US economy means that our retaliation will come to nothing, and even if we coordinate with other countries, we’re unlikely to change Trump’s mind, so better to work to contain the US presidency. Susan Ariel Aaronson suspects that the tariffs will weaken America’s national security interests rather than strengthen them, as Trump has used as the excuse to enact them, while Andrew MacDougall thinks that Trump’s move may benefit Doug Ford, who pledges to lower taxes and cut red tape that may appeal to people who think this can help keep Ontario’s economy competitive.

Continue reading →

Roundup: The first salvo of a trade war

Posted on by

It looks like we’ll officially be in a trade war with the United States, thanks to the decision of the American government to slap steel and aluminium tariffs on us as a direct consequence of NAFTA not being renegotiated (under the guise of “national security” concerns), and the Canadian government has opted to retaliate. And we also learned that a NAFTA deal was on the table, but because we refused the five-year sunset clause (as well we should have because it would present too much uncertainty to industry), the Americans walked away from the deal. So that’s a pretty big deal.

The tariffs could have pretty big knock-on effects on our economy, and it won’t really help the American steel industry, which is already operating pretty much at capacity, so much of Trump’s justification evaporates. And Canada’s retaliatory measures, calculated to be dollar-for-dollar on the US-imposed tariffs may sound like an odd list that includes things like yogurt, candy, pizzas and pens, it’s all carefully calculated to target the industries of swing states and key American legislators as they start heading toward mid-term elections. The objective of course is to put pressure on them, who should in turn put pressure on Trump. In theory. We’ll see.

Meanwhile, Aaron Wherry looks at how Trump is ignoring the basics of statecraft and getting away with it with impunity. Paul Wells suspects it’s time to start snubbing Trump rather than appearing eager to get a deal accomplished, since that’s what he’s more focuse don in the first place. Stephen Saideman says that Canada needs to retaliate somehow, lest it feed Trump’s perception that “maximal pressure” works in negotiations.

https://twitter.com/dgardner/status/1002189314107703297

Continue reading →

Roundup: Trans Mountain and Phoenix

Posted on by

The government announced yesterday morning that they were going to acquire the Trans Mountain pipeline and the project to twin it from Kinder Morgan – but that this would be a short-term acquisition if another buyer can’t be found before August. In the meantime, a loan would be extended to Kinder Morgan to begin construction immediately. Rachel Notley cheered and said that it’s time for Albertans to pick up tools and get to work on building it. Morneau, incidentally, won’t say what those construction costs will be, as that’s commercially sensitive information that could undermine the process for finding a buyer for the pipeline. As for who some of those buyers might be, here’s a look at that question. The buyout – if it happens – won’t eliminate opposition, but it changes the legal situation for BC in that federal paramountcy is even more prevalent than it was before. BC premier John Horgan says that his fight will carry on, but he’s suddenly saying that this is all because the federal oceans protection plan isn’t good enough, which is…new, and not terribly convincing. As for Indigenous activists, some say that the announcement is tantamount to a “declaration of war,” but other Indigenous communities are seeing this as an opportunity to buy a stake in the pipeline to benefit their communities.

https://twitter.com/InklessPW/status/1001476415815127041

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1001481702470905857

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1001486610729394176

The Conservatives immediately stated that this was all because of Liberal incompetence, that Kinder Morgan never said they wanted to sell, that they only wanted “certainty,” and then Andrew Scheer engaged in a bunch of revisionist history that falsely claimed that other pipeline projects never got government financing (it’s like he’s never read about the Trans Canada Pipeline construction in the 1950s, not to mention the development of the Hybernia offshore oilfield, or the development of the oilsands themselves). Oh, and Scheer’s definition of “certainty” that he would provide includes forgoing the current environmental assessment bill (has he talked to environmental lawyers or looked at the kinds of court challenges that the Conservative legislation has generated?) and his insistence that they could somehow “assert” federal jurisdiction by means of a declaration or a bill is ridiculous because they already had jurisdiction. The pipeline crosses a provincial boundary, thereby making it federal. Jurisdiction was never seriously in question. His MPs and other federal and provincial mouthpieces have been trying to spin this as some kind of conspiracy that Trudeau is only buying the pipeline in order to take control of it and shut it down so that they can shut down the entire oil sector. Seriously? You expect people to believe that, after Trudeau has staked an enormous amount of political capital on this very move? Really?

In other reaction, Andrew Coyne sees this as not all bad news (though I’m not sure how much more the Liberals could have done to avoid it), while John Ivison sees irony in the government “getting into the pipeline business” on the same day as the Auditor General blasted them for an inability to manage big projects. Tim Harper sees this as a potential precursor to tougher days ahead for Trudeau, while Jason Markusoff notes that this will make it hard for Albertans to sustain the narrative that Ottawa hates them (though by gods, the Conservatives in Ottawa are really trying). Andrew Leach also gives a very detailed analysis of the purchase in Twitter threads here, here, here, and here.

Continue reading →