Tag Archives: Trade

QP: Gas-powered nonsense

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With the G7 still ongoing in Kananaskis, minus Trump, things continued apace back in Ottawa as the government continues to bulldoze through its One Canada Economy bill (which remains a very big problem). Andrew Scheer was once again present but silent, leaving it up to Chris Warkentin to lead off, who raised the party’s Supply Day motion about ending the government’s supposed ban on gas-powered vehicles, which is not a ban, but it’s not like they have any real compunction to tell the truth. Julie Dabrusin boggled that the Conservatives would attack the auto industry like this. Warkentin shot back with claims that a report said that there could be 50,000 job losses in the auto industry because of trade uncertainty (read: Trump’s capricious tariffs), and he demanded the government “end the insanity” of the supposed “radical” ban on gas-powered engines. François-Philippe Champagne insisted that they would take no lessons from the Conservatives, and he praised the record investment in the auto sector and the EV supply chain. Rachael Thomas took over, and she demanded freedom of choice for vehicles people drive, and that EVs don’t fit the needs of Canadian families. Dabrusin said that she would stand up for the auto industry and for being climate-competitive, as EV sales are up globally. Thomas gave another overwrought plea to “stop making the vehicles auto workers are producing illegally,” and claimed that farmers can’t use EVs (which is complete bullshit). Dabrusin reminded her that the characterisation is wrong, and that they are not banning gas-powered vehicles (and it only took her until the fourth answer to point this out), but this was support for the EV sector, which has seen growing demand. Luc Berthold read the same mendacious script in French, and worried about the lack of snowmobiles, ATVs and F-150s. Champagne patted himself on the back for bringing Quebec into the auto industry and that they are creating jobs in the industry of the future. Berthold worried that cold weather cuts battery power of EVs, and Dabrusin praised the EV industry and Quebec’s adoption.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and accused the government of using the G7 as a distraction as they ram through Bill C-5, and that this was something so heavy-handed that it would embarrass Stephen Harper. Mandy Gull-Masty insisted that there would be “exhaustive” consultation with Indigenous people as part of this. Normandin hoped that there were more Liberals who were uncommitted with this bill and what it represents, but Stephen MacKinnon insisted that they got elected to do just this. (Erm…) Patrick Bonin took over to also decry that the Henry VIII clause in the bill is so open-ended that they could suspend any law. Dabrusin said that Canadians asked the government to build a strong economy, and to embark on projects of national importance while they still protect the environment.

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Roundup: Countdown to a trade deal?

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Even before the G7 summit officially got underway, prime minister Mark Carney had his bilateral meeting with Trump, and it was this somewhat awkward situation where Trump defended having a “tariff concept” and said that Carney had a “more complicated” plan (how could “free trade” be more complicated?”) but there was word that talks were “accelerating,” and later in the day, we got a readout from that conversation that said that they were aiming to get a trade deal within 30 days, so no pressure there (not that you could really accept such a deal for the paper it’s written on because this is Trump and he doesn’t honour his agreements). Trump also claimed to have signed a trade deal with the UK (which he called the EU at the time), and held up a blank page with his signature on it. So that…happened.

Holy crap. The US-UK trade deal is a blank sheet of paper and only Trump signed it. (Genuine screen grab).

— Justin Wolfers (@justinwolfers.bsky.social) 2025-06-17T00:13:56.113Z

The rest of the summit took place, and then suddenly Trump decided he needed to leave early, right after the Heads of Government dinner, citing important business in Washington, with allusions to the Israel-Iran conflict, but he did wind up signing a joint communiqué that calls for de-escalation in said conflict, so we’ll see how that holds up. Trump leaving early does mean that he won’t be around the arrival of either Volodymyr Zelenskyy or Mexican president Claudia Sheinbaum, who had hoped to have bilateral meetings with Trump on the sidelines of the summit, so that does blow a hole in what they expected to come for, particularly for Sheinbaum who rarely travels.

Meanwhile, here are some of the highlights of the day. Tsuut’ina Nation council member Steven Crowchild spoke about his meeting with Trump during his arrival in Calgary. EU officials confirmed that Carney is likely to sign a defence procurement agreement with them during his visit to Brussels in two weeks.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-16T22:08:16.537Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone and missile attack struck Kyiv in the early morning hours, wounding at least twenty. Ukraine received another 1,245 bodies, ending this repatriation agreement, bringing the total to over 6000 war dead.

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Roundup: Countdown to the G7 summit

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It’s the run-up to the G7 summit on Monday and Tuesday, and it will start with dinner with UK prime minister Keir Starmer tonight, before everyone starts heading to Calgary, where Danielle Smith will be greeting delegates as they arrive for the G7, starting on Sunday, and will host an event with them. We already know that there will be some different features in this summit in that they will forgo the usual joint communiqué, but instead, Carney will put out a chair’s statement (because there is unlikely to be any kind of consensus to be had with Trump in the room).

Another question is about what some of the discussions will wind up being about, given the chaotic nature of what is happening right now, such as Israel and Iran attacking one another, while there are wildfires burning in Alberta, and the conflict in Ukraine has intensified after Ukraine destroyed a significant portion of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. The number of other non-G7 members invited to attend will also help shape the discussions, which includes Indian prime minister Narendra Modi (whose activities we are apparently overlooking for the sake of the conference), though it should also be noted that “bone saws” Mohammed bin Salman won’t be attending after all, despite being invited. Here is a rundown of the additional invitees to the summit.

Meanwhile, Canada and India have reached an agreement to share information about cross-border crimes, such as transnational crimes, syndicates, terrorism, and extremist activities. That makes the obvious question to be whether the Indian government will disclose its transnational repression and contracting of syndicates to carryout transnational crimes (like extrajudicial killings)? Or do they simply expect Canada to turn over information about the legal activities of Khalistani advocates in this country? Because if we’re not getting any of the former, I’m not sure what value this agreement really has as a “reset” of the relationship.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine and Russia had another swap of bodies of fallen soldiers yesterday.

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Roundup: The price of going around consultations

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As prime minister Mark Carney gets set to ram his major project legislation through Parliament—Henry VIII clause and all—a couple of philosophical questions are popping up about the nature of what it is they’re doing to speed through these approvals. Doug Ford is trying to do it by essentially creating lawless zones, whereas Carney is giving himself the power to override other laws through regulation alone, which is ripe for abuse and which the Liberals would be screaming bloody murder about if they were in opposition. (The Conservatives, incidentally, are not up in arms about this use of a Henry VIII clause). The thing is, though, these laws and regulations exist for a reason—they’re not there just to thwart investment or development (in spite of what the Conservatives might tell themselves), and you’re asking for trouble if you go around it.

Part of that trouble is Indigenous consultation, and what they seem to believe it entails. It’s not just a meeting where you sit down and go “Here’s what we want to do on your lands.” It’s way more complicated, especially as you have some particular First Nations that have been burned in the past by other developers who promised them all kinds of benefits for that development and then reneged on their agreements (often leaving an environmental catastrophe in their wakes that they won’t pay for, leaving these First Nations off even worse). And they are already talking about litigation if their rights are violated, and those rights include free, prior and informed consent. This is a big deal, and we’re not sure that either Carney or Ford have actually thought this through. Things take time—especially within First Nations. Carney may be in for an unpleasant surprise about his timelines.

[Mallory Archer voice]: Do you want litigation? Because that's how you get litigation.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-06-10T04:18:21.071Z

Meanwhile, oil prices have crashed to rock-bottom prices, meaning it will be even more unlikely that we’ll see companies willing to invest in new pipeline infrastructure, even if the Carney government thinks they can ram projects through in a two-year window (which, again, I remain dubious about). Danielle Smith is trying to entice a proponent for some sort of pipeline, but again, money talks. Those rock-bottom prices are also going to hit Alberta’s government hard, because they budgeted for much higher royalties, and that in turn will make Smith panicky and try to pick even more fights, all because she refuses to implement a sales tax that would avoid being dependent on oil revenues above a certain level to balance the books.

Ukraine Dispatch

It was another night of heavy drone attacks, with the hardest-hit area being Kharkiv, killing three people and a total of 64 wounded across the country. Ukraine says that they struck a large gunpower factory in Russia. Another prisoner swap was held yesterday, but it was less prisoners than 1212 bodies.

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QP: A specious connection between food prices and a budget

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The prime minister was out at Fort York, having made his big defence spending announcement, while the opposition was having their first allotted Supply Day in the Commons, with a nonsense motion calling for a budget because of food price inflation, blaming it on government spending when that’s not even remotely correct. 

Even though Andrew Scheer was present, he didn’t lead off, leading that up to Michael Barrett, who signalled to their motion, and demanded a budget that will bring down grocery prices (How? Price controls?) François-Philippe Champagne assured him that there will be a budget in the fall, and said it was ironic that the Conservatives consistently voted against measures to help people. Barrett claimed that the savings from the tax cut would be “vapourised” by “inflationary spending,” and demanded a budget again. Champagne said that they will always side with Canadians, like they sided with children to give them a national school food programme, or seniors with dental care, or families with child care. John Brassard took over to give the same mendacious framing of food price inflation, to which Wayne Long praised their cutting the consumer carbon levy. Brassard repeated the line about tripling food price inflation, and Long praised the headline inflation number, the workforce participation number, and the triple-A credit rating. Luc Berthold cited the “food professor” to blame food price inflation on government spending in French, to which Champagne pointed out that the Conservatives voted against any measures to help Canadians. Berthold repeated the same falsehoods to demand a budget, and Champagne retorted that the responsible thing to do was to cut taxes which they did.

Once again confused about all these questions in QP about food prices.Eliminating the carbon tax was supposed to take care of that.

— Aaron Wherry (@aaronwherry.bsky.social) 2025-06-09T18:21:50.749Z

Christine Normandin worried that the bill on trade barriers would force a pipeline through Quebec, and demanded the bill be split apart. Chrystia Freeland said that this is a critical moment for the country, so everyone needs to work together to build one Canadian economy. Normandin called the bill a step backward for the environment and democracy, and this time, Steve MacKinnon said that this bill is a response to an economic crisis caused by the Americans. Patrick Bonin also worried about the declaratory powers in the legislation, and Dabrusin says the difference between the Liberals and the Conservatives is that the Liberals believe in protecting the environment. 

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Roundup: Historical revisionism of federalism in the past decade

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Last week had largely been spent trying to determine what the love-in with the premiers all means, so much so that Danielle Smith is losing her grip on reality as she insists that she’ll convince BC premier David Eby to let another pipeline cross his province (in spite of there being no actual proposals for one), while also claiming that Albertans have the “lowest living standards in the world,” and I just can’t even.

Meanwhile, I’m seeing comments from the pundit class that I’m just finding hard to square with reality. This one quote from the weekend dispatch of The Line is a good example of these pundit narratives that are completely ahistorical.

The Liberals under Justin Trudeau were so fantastically uninterested in working with the provinces, and so relentlessly hostile to basic economic growth, that having a prime minister simply acknowledge (as Carney has) that we are in an economic emergency seems like a massive step forward.

Trudeau did work with the provinces a lot in his first parliament—he had the first face-to-face meeting with them as a group in years after Harper refused to, and they got big things done—the agreement on carbon pricing, enhancing CPP, a suite of health measures that Jane Philpott negotiated with the provinces. None of this was inconsequential, but there was a very different group of premiers in 2015 than there was in 2024. And let’s also be frank—the premiers didn’t want to work together with the federal government anymore. They wanted to gang up on him for more money with no conditions (those health transfers that Philpott negotiated didn’t go toward fixing anything), while the pleading that everyone was making around finding exceptions to the carbon levy was very unproductive (not that Trudeau did any favours in his “pause” on the price for heating oil rather than a better system of rebates in areas where energy poverty was a problem). But seriously, the premiers get away with blaming Trudeau for all of the things that they refused to do that were their responsibility, and somehow he was the problem?

As well, the notion that Trudeau was hostile to basic economic growth is, frankly, unhinged. How many trade deals did he sign or push over the finish line? What was the whole attempt to stand-up a North American EV supply chain? What were the billions spent to keep the entire economy afloat during COVID? If you’re going to cite the capital gains changes as being “hostile,” then congratulations—you’re a gullible numpty who bought the lines of people who engage in tax arbitrage and want that sweet roll to continue. If you think environmental regulation was killing economic growth, just wait until you see what climate change is already doing to the economy and is going to get exponentially worse. Just because Trudeau didn’t bow to the tax-cut-and-deregulate crowd, it doesn’t mean he was hostile to economic growth. Yes, he and his government had problems. A lot of them. But let’s not make up things that are blatantly ahistorical or outright fictional just to help put a shine on Carney.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-07T21:10:14.180Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drone and missile attacks killed four people in Kharkiv on Saturday. Russian forces claim to have crossed into the Dnipropetrovsk region, while a row is now brewing over an agreement to exchange bodies of dead soldiers, which Ukraine says they are not delaying. Meanwhile, a drone attack on a Russian electronics factory has forced them to suspend production.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1931395337958084711

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Roundup: Back-channel tariff talks?

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Ever since the latest round of steel and aluminium tariffs went into place, there have been questions as to when and how Canada will respond, and earlier in the week, prime minister Mark Carney counselled patience and that there were “intensive negotiations” happening, but retaliatory measures were also being prepared. We found out yesterday that Carney and Trump have been having back-channel conversations on the subject, so retaliation while this is happening may be counter-productive. But you also have industry worrying that the longer this goes without retaliation, the more they become vulnerable to other things like steel imports from other countries being diverted to Canada, which could make their situation even worse.

That being said, we may not be able to eliminate all tariffs, and some level could remain because Trump does love tariffs, and has a completely wrong-headed notion about them because of the people he has been surrounding himself with. Never mind that our auto sector can’t survive with tariffs, or that the Americans will simply pay through the nose for aluminium that they can’t smelt themselves.

Meanwhile, the Star has a really good five-point explainer about the counter-tariffs, and why the Conservatives’ claims that they were “secretly removed” is false, but rather a certain number of counter-tariffs were suspended for six months to give Canadian companies time to adjust supply chains, but there are still plenty of counter-tariffs in place.

Ukraine Dispatch

There was another missile and drone attack overnight which hit Kyiv, has killed at least four people.

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QP: Worrying about (below-target) inflation

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With the (non) drama around the first “confidence vote” (which wasn’t really either) out of the way, MPs were back for Thursday QP, but this time most of the leaders were absent. While Andrew Scheer was present, it was Jasraj Hallan who led off, citing that the PBO was “concerned” about the size of the interest payments on the federal debt, and demanded to know what date the budget would be tabled on. François-Philippe Champagne thanked him for voting for the Ways and Means motion on the tax cut, and couldn’t wait for the Conservatives to support the main bill. Hallan demanded Champagne apologise for collecting the carbon levy (erm, which went back to people), railed about inflation, and demanded a budget. Champagne patted himself on the back for not only the tax cut, but the GST break on first-time house purchases. Leslyn Lewis read the same script demanding a budget with the same false threats about inflation, and Champagne enthused about all of the good things that were in the Estimates, such as dental care and child care. Lewis read the same concern from the PBO and accused the Liberals of breaking their promise to cap spending, to which Champagne proclaimed that they were proud to support people with their programmes. Chris Lewis read the script about counter-tariffs and demanded a budget, to which Dominic LeBlanc said that they are negotiating a new agreement with the Americans because the tariffs are unjustified and ridiculously punitive. Richard Martel read the French script about aluminium tariffs, and LeBlanc praised the aluminium workers, and he denounced the tariffs again, saying they will support workers.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and worried there was still no help for the aluminium industry, and demanded action. LeBlanc repeated his praise for the industry and that they are working to protect the workers. Normandin worried about forestry and aerospace also being targeted, and again demanded action. Mélanie Joly raised her meetings with the CEOs in the industry and insisted they are protecting the sector. Jean-Denis Garon took over to also demand support, along with a budget being tabled, and Champagne insisted they are fighting against tariffs and protecting industry while they build Canada.

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Roundup: The confidence vote that wasn’t

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Debate on the Address in Reply to the Speech From the Throne was due to wrap up, meaning a final vote. Media outlets insisted that this would be the first major confidence vote of the new Parliament, and that if the Liberals lost it, we could go back to an election, and there was all this building drama because of how they lost the vote on the Conservatives’ amendment (to “urge” the government to table a spring budget). And my headache started.

The vote on the Address in Reply is not automatically a confidence vote. It is if the opposition amendments explicitly state that they have no confidence in the government, and sometimes that happens because this is the first opportunity to test the confidence of the Chamber, especially in a minority parliament or legislature, but again, that was not the case here. But along the way, the NDP decided that they were going to play tough and declare that they would vote against it for specious reasons (and because Don Davies is an idiot, and has a long track record of being an idiot and a blowhard), while the Government House Leader, Steve MacKinnon, told reporters that this would be a confidence vote. So, if the government says it’s a confidence vote, it’s a confidence vote, and it was likely intended to be something of a bit a put-up-or-shut-up dare, which can be risky in a minority parliament, but sometimes you also need to play hardball with the opposition. This was likely going to mean that the Bloc would either vote in support or abstain (because they did say they would give the government a year before they started to seriously oppose anything, given the Trump situation), but the government was never in any serious danger of falling. If, by some fluke, they did lose a vote they declared to be confidence, they could simply hold another vote and basically say “Did you mean it?” and chances are they would win that vote, and all would go back to normal.

And in the end, there wasn’t even a vote. News of Marc Garneau’s death reached the Chamber just before the vote was to be taken, and it seems like the appetite for drama was gone, and it passed on division, meaning that they agreed to disagree, that they were going to let it pass, but not bother with a recorded vote. And thus, the least exciting outcome happened.

I must advise the beings of Bluesky that, in a truly only-in-this-particular-Canadian-parliament twist, the much-anticipated will-they-or-won't-they-trigger-an-election over it motion on the Throne speech as amended — has been adopted on division.

— Kady O'Malley (@kadyo.bsky.social) 2025-06-04T22:25:39.121Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-04T22:02:26.904Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drones struck an apartment building in Kharkiv, injuring at least seventeen. Russian forces have also pushed further into Sumy region. Here’s a look at how Operation Spiderweb was carried out.

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QP: Angry about the new tariffs

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A hot Wednesday in the Nation’s Capital, and everyone was fired up from their caucus meetings in the morning. Mark Carney was present, as were the other leaders, and Andrew Scheer actually stood up to speak today, when he didn’t earlier in the week. With that in mind, Scheer led off by denouncing the new Trump tariffs, and said that other countries got them removed while Canada had them doubled (not really true), said that Carney couldn’t get a deal, and then went on a tangent about the counter-tariffs being “secretly” removed (not true), and then demanded a budget. Carney called the tariffs, illegal, unjustified and illogical, and said they did have retaliatory tariffs on over $90 billion of U.S. goods, and they are undertaking “intensive” negotiations and are preparing reprisals if they don’t succeed. Scheer then tried to tie this to the fact that the PM won’t approve a new pipeline, and said that consensus can’t happen because BC premier David Eby is a “radical,” and tried to needle the divisions in Cabinet on energy projects, before he demanded an approval for a pipeline “today” (never mind that there is no pipeline being proposed). Carney said that everyone is agreed to build projects of national importance, and consensus includes Indigenous people, which the Conservatives don’t agree with. Scheer retorted that if photo ops and phoney rhetoric got things done, Trudeau would still be prime minister. He then pivoted to food price inflation, to which Carney patted himself on the back for their tax cut. Dominique Vien took over, and she demanded the government respect their motion to table a spring budget. Carney said that the bill before the House would reduce taxes for 22 million Canadians. Vien also raised food price inflation, and railed about the Estimates bill, to which Carney said that these estimates included things like health transfers and pensions for seniors. Richard Martel took over, and he gave the French script about counter-tariffs, and Carney repeated that the U.S. tariffs were illegal and unjustified, and that they are in negotiations with the Americans.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he too was concerned about the doubled steel and aluminium tariffs. Carney said that they need to do several things at the same time—building a single economy, negotiating with the Americans, and that they were going to win, just like the Oilers. Blanchet tried again, and got the same response. Blanchet demanded support for the sector, and wanted support for a wage support bill (which would be unvoteable). Carney again said they were negotiating.

Carney says they will win with US negotiations, “Just like the Oilers.”Sorry to be That Guy, but you know the Oilers famously choke at the end, right? #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-06-04T18:30:47.920Z

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