Tag Archives: Trade

Roundup: Singh walks back his demands

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was fairly scattershot – plenty of announcements therein, but most of them fairly small. There was news that the changes to the Canada Emergency Business Account eligibility were coming on Friday, and that the new food surplus rescue programme was now open for applications. Trudeau spoke of a new global AI partnership, which would house a centre of excellence in Montreal, and that Mary Ng was participating in a meeting about World Trade Organization reform. Trudeau mentioned our troops headed back to Ukraine, before citing that he had agreed to a UN request for airlift support to transport medical supplies and humanitarian assistance. And finally, he raised the fact that it was World Elder Abuse Awareness Day, and spoke about its importance.

During the Q&A is where some of the interesting developments for the day happened, because a number of reporters asked if he was going to extend the Canada Emergency Response Benefit for a few more months, and Trudeau kept responding that the programme was about ensuring people could stay home so that we could flatten the curve of infections, and that they would have Canadians’ backs, and that they would have more to say later in the week – not guaranteeing the same programme would carry on longer. Why this was important was because Jagmeet Singh made a big song and dance that his support for the Supply Bill coming up this week – a confidence vote – would be contingent upon the CERB being extended for four more months. And by end of day, Singh was on the political shows, walking back his unequivocal statements, instead insisting that he didn’t want to be prescriptive (when that’s exactly what he was), so it sounds like the Liberals have been hinting at him a little more strongly about what they will have as a transition post-CERB. We’ll see on Wednesday, but it will likely be enough that Singh can pat himself on the back and claim victory like he did on Trudeau’s promise to talk to the provinces about paid sick leave (which they still haven’t agreed to, by the way).

The bulk of the rest of questions for Trudeau were on the two RCMP shootings in New Brunswick last week and the issue of systemic racism and what he was going to do right away about it. Trudeau responded that they were busy looking over previous reports to see what could be done immediately, and that there was more to come in the near future. This was as Progressive Senator Lilian Eva Dyck made a public call for RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki to resign or be fired given that she was unable to comprehend the problem of systemic racism in her own organization, and that it was a sign that they needed different leadership at this time of trying to address said systemic racism. Trudeau says he still has confidence in Lucki, but Dyck has certainly pushed the conversation further.

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Roundup: Cautious progress in most places

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For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau led off by teasing that new federal modelling numbers were on the way, before mentioning the global vaccination pledging conference, and then turned to domestic measures to help seniors, announcing that their additional OAS and GIS payment would go out on July 6th. During the Q&A, there were questions on Huawei (as the US is making more clear threats to limit intelligence sharing with Canada if they aren’t banned), the fact that he hasn’t been more equivocal in denouncing Trump, and recent instances of police violence and misconduct in Canada such as one in Nunavut.

As promised, the new federal modelling numbers were released shortly thereafter, and it’s becoming increasingly clear that the two biggest problem areas in the country remain Toronto and Montreal. There remain warnings that we could see another outbreak if testing and tracing regimes aren’t increased. This having been said, I think it was the data released by BC yesterday that was even more interesting.

One is the data around contact tracing (which that province can seem to manage, but Ontario can’t in its epic managerial incompetence), and it shows that once lockdown measures were in place, the number of contacts that infected people made dropped from 10.7 per case to 3.6, which is a pretty effective demonstration of why physical or social distancing matters.

The other is this analysis of the genomic epidemiology of the virus – as in, where it’s travelled from, because there are small mutations based on where it’s come from, and lo and behold, the vast majority of them were from European/Eastern Canadian strains and very few from China. But hey, the Conservatives and others keep insisting that if only we’d closed the border to China sooner, this all could have been avoided. This data proves that simply wasn’t the case (despite what people like Dr. Theresa Tam have been saying already) – not that it will stop their revisionist history. Nevertheless, it’s interesting stuff.

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Roundup: Threats over Keystone XL threats

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Back from the Victoria Day long weekend, prime minister Justin Trudeau started off his daily presser by announcing that the government had agreed to extend the partial border closure with the US for another thirty days, before he started talking about how the government was working to expand the eligibility for the Canada Emergency Business Accounts so that more small businesses and entrepreneurs could apply for them. He also made a plea to employers to rehire their workers and use the wage subsidy programme, which is why it’s in place, but I guess we’ll see what kind of uptake that will get. In response to questions, Trudeau said that they were trying working to create a national framework around things like testing and contact tracing before the borders could re-open, but this being areas of provincial jurisdiction, it requires that kind of cooperation. On the subject of the resumption of Parliament, Trudeau was dismissive, citing concerns over MPs who may not be able or willing to head to Ottawa (as though accommodations can’t be made). When asked about the comments by Joe Biden in the US that he would cancel the permits for Keystone XL, Trudeau reminded everyone that he supported the project even before he was prime minister.

On the Keystone XL file, Alberta has recently put a $1.5 billion financial stake, alogn with $6 billion in loan guarantees, in completing said pipeline (after they pleaded poverty on keeping teaching assistants on the payroll and refusing other forms of pandemic aid in order to force them into federal coffers), so they’re threatening legal action, and Jason Kenney is promising to file a trade action if Biden is a) elected, and b) revokes the authorizations. But it also many not be that easy, and Alberta could be on the hook for major losses if this comes to pass.

Good reads:

  • Here’s a deeper look into the commercial rent subsidy programme, where the details are still being negotiated with the provinces before it is finalized.
  • The National Post tried to get a picture of Ontario’s preparations for economic re-opening, and there seem to be a lot more questions than answers.
  • The President of the CMHC says that this pandemic could raise household debt levels and cause a drag on GDP growth. (You don’t say).
  • The Royal Canadian Navy is relying on US Navy drones to help locate the wreckage of the Cyclone helicopter that crashed off the coast of Greece.
  • Here is a look at the challenges of running election campaigns in a time of pandemic (but the piece omits that Saskatchewan needs to have an election this fall).
  • The UK has released a preliminary post-Brexit tariff list, which gives Canada a start in terms of what kind of trade deal we will have to work out by the end of the year.
  • A Toronto attack from three months ago has been reclassified as an incel terrorist attack, which is the first time that incels have been branded as such.
  • Apparently Andrew Scheer discontinued his process to revoke his American citizenship, given he was no longer going to be prime minister.
  • Rona Ambrose has joined the board of directors of a vape company.
  • The leader of the Quebec wing of the Green Party is accusing Elizabeth May of having consolidated power through her “parliamentary leader” role.
  • New Brunswick’s legislature is adapting to in-person sittings by having some MLAs sitting in the visitor galleries to maintain physical distancing.
  • Max Fawcett notes the curious silence from the usual “ethical oil” types about the news that Saudi Arabia is investing in the Alberta oil sands as others pull out.
  • Susan Delacourt delves into how closely the Canadian and American governments have had to work to keep the border closed, in spite of their divergent approaches.
  • My column delves into the Procedure and House Affairs committee report on virtual sittings and finds the fix is in to make virtual elements permanent post-pandemic.

Odds and ends:

https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1262505806664290305

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Roundup: Commercial rent relief on the way

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For his Friday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau at long last unveiled the details of the commercial rent relief programme, now that they have ironed out the details with the provinces (considering that it’s their jurisdiction), which is essentially that commercial landlords (for properties where the rent is below a certain threshold) need to offer 75 percent discounts on their rent from April to June, and the federal government would provide non-repayable loans of up to fifty percent of said rents. From there, he mentioned that they were deploying Canadian Armed Forces personnel to certain long-term care facilities in Ontario and Quebec, and that they were working to beef up the salaries of existing long-term care workers. He also said that they were working with provinces and territories to establish guidelines for when they re-open their economies, but that people need to pay attention to the local rules and not those in other jurisdictions, because the outbreaks are different in each region. (During the First Ministers’ weekly teleconference later in the day, there was some agreement to this, and apparently each province and territory will be submitting their plans to the federal government).

Of course, with the news that there was an agreement on commercial rents, we got some fairly usual voices caterwauling that all rents needed to be dealt with, not just commercial ones. The response to that, of course, is to talk to one’s premier, because that’s where the responsibility lies – Trudeau can’t just swoop in because landlord and tenant legislation is strictly provincial, and the mechanisms they employed for the commercial rent relief are not necessarily suited for residential properties. And there was word today that Doug Ford wants the federal government to step in on residential rents – after he has been spectacularly unwilling to do anything and tells people to work it out with their landlords – so if there is more uptake with his fellow premiers in the next few days, they may try to design something, though I’m not sure exactly what, because I worry that there may be a bigger domino effect throughout the banking sector, but there are no quick fixes. And no, the national housing strategy does not give federal jurisdiction over rents, nor does the Canada Health Act provide a template for rent either, because there are no funding agreements with the provinces, nor would the federal government simply be transferring a pot of money to the provinces for residential rents. It’s complex, there are big jurisdictional issues, and Trudeau can’t and shouldn’t do everything. The provinces have a role to play and they should play it.

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Roundup: More flexibility, no candour

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For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau announced that they were making their wage subsidy more flexible so that more employers can benefit, and that they were making changes to the Canada Summer Jobs Programme so that they will extend the work period to the end of February 2021 and subsidise the full wage. He also said that he was going to be attending Cabinet in person, his period of self-isolation now over, but that he would still continue to work from home most of the time. During the Q&A portion, the question came up for him a couple of times, and again during the ministerial presser, about why the government didn’t go with the “send cheques to everyone” model, and both Trudeau and Jean-Yves Duclos gave lousy responses. Trudeau said that they looked at different designs, and figured that the CERB was the best way to reach the largest number of affected workers, while the wage subsidy would keep people connected to their jobs, and with those in place, they could look at filling the gaps that people still fell through. Duclos acknowledged “holes” in the social security system that they were working to address and hoped that they would have a better understanding of those coming out of the crisis.

The problem with these responses is that they aren’t what is needed. They’re talking points that stick to happy and good news elements but they don’t offer the kind of candour that is needed around capacity issues and the fact that there is no magic database that has everyone’s SIN and address. You literally cannot just send money to everyone, and cutting cheques to the whole country would literally take months. (More from professor Jennifer Robson on those challenges here). And this lack of candour is a problem – a big problem that they keep shooting themselves in the foot over, and why I wrote my column on this over the weekend. But this government’s penchant for self-inflicted wounds is something to behold, because they are completely incapable of communicating their way out of a wet paper bag.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1247917002296971271

Meanwhile, it sounds like the hold-up for the recall of Parliament to pass the wage subsidy legislation is that the Liberals want it to be done “virtually” (even though the Speaker says it could be weeks before that could even be feasible – though I would argue it’s not constitutional) while the Conservatives want the House to come back for regular sittings in a reduced capacity (which is what I’ve been arguing for weeks). Parliament is an essential service. The Liberals are being unreasonable on this one.

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Roundup: CERB is go

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There were a lot of early piece of news in advance of Justin Trudeau’s daily presser – Doug Ford complaining that the province only had one week of supplies left as three million masks bound for Ontario were blocked at the US border (some half a million released later in the day), and Andrew Scheer helpfully demanding a “temporary” expansion of charitable tax credits.

When Trudeau did begin his presser, he spoke about the fact that the CERB was now online and thousands of applications had already poured in and the system hadn’t crashed. He also said that they were working on getting other benefit programmes in place for those whose hours were reduced, those who were still working but making less than they would be on CERB benefits, or students who didn’t qualify for benefits, and that there would be announcements for those soon. He also mentioned efforts at getting debt relief during the pandemic, and that they were working on bringing Parliament back to get the wage subsidy bill passed. During the Q&A, he spoke largely in generalities about working with the provinces and the US on resolving the issues around protective equipment (and by the end of the day, it seems that the mask issue had been settled and the Americans would once again allow shipments to flow to Canada), and that he was trying to find some kind of flexibility for a “virtual” parliament (which is a very bad thing and he should stop right there).

One thing Trudeau would not offer an opinion on was the mask debate, saying that it was not up for politicians to make these kinds of recommendations. During the ministerial presser shortly thereafter, Dr. Theresa Tam essentially reiterated her same advice that the only time you really need a mask is if you’re showing symptoms, and it could be helpful if you’re in a situation where physical distance is difficult – like on public transit – but repeated again that it’s not an official recommendation and that medical-grade masks should only be for medical personnel. And yet, despite this, everyone spent the rest of the day saying there were “new” mask guidelines (there weren’t), or that Tam had somehow reversed her previous position (she hadn’t), and there wasn’t a lot of focus on the fact that she repeated over and over that the problem with masks is they give people a false sense of confidence and they slack off on other measures like physical distancing or handwashing. But hey, everyone’s an armchair infectious disease specialist these days, so that’s what matters, right?

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Roundup: Shelters and masks

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Because it was a Saturday presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau appeared in jeans and without a tie, belying the more casual nature of the day at a time when days blend into one another. He had a couple of messages – that the government had invested another $40 million in shelters for women facing domestic violence (a particular consideration at a time when people are forced to stay home), and another $10 million for Indigenous women facing violence. He also pointed to $157 million in funds for the homeless, and that the communities where these funds were needed have been identified so funds were now flowing. On the subject of masks and medical devices, Trudeau stated that millions of more masks were expected in the next 48 hours (from the time of said announcement), and that the government had leased a warehouse in China to help coordinate the acquisition of these masks and supplies while they charter flights to carry them to Canada. Trudeau also noted that he would be speaking to his American counterpart in the coming days about the issue of masks and so on.

For her own presser, Dr. Theresa Tam reiterated yet again that these models that reporters keep demanding are not crystal balls, that they are not real numbers, that they aren’t predictions, and that they are highly sensitive to what is happening right now. But that hasn’t stopped the framing by reporters that these are hard data, and that they are indicative of anything in particular. And while here is an attempt to nuance the models Ontario released on Friday, but it’s one print article when TV reporters and headlines are framing it as disaster porn (and getting self-righteous about it).

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Roundup: Framing models as data

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For his daily presser, prime minister Justin Trudeau started off by saying that the government had signed an agreement with Amazon Canada – and not Canada Post – to manage the distribution of personal protective equipment to the provinces and territories when it is received by the federal government, but one imagines that this also involves warehousing and logistics than just simply delivery. He also announced $100 million being diverted to help meet food insecurity needs, through Food Banks Canada, as well as a variety of other breakfast clubs and other food organizations. He also mentioned his teleconference with the other premiers and their devotion to data sharing and projections, and that they were working to verify the latest figures that were being put online. During the Q&A, he confirmed that Canadian Forces – in the form of Rangers – have been dispatched to the Nunavik region of Northern Quebec, and addressed the news that the American president had ordered 3M to stop sending N95 masks to Canada and other Latin American countries (3M’s president pushed back citing humanitarian concerns and retaliation), and Trudeau stated that he has warned the Americans not to block access to needed supplies – particularly as Canada has many supplies and healthcare workers the Americans need, such as the 1000 nurses who live in Windsor but work in Detroit. It does highlight the need for more domestic production of these masks as competition for procurement gets more intense globally.

And then, Ontario released its modelling of some potential COVID-19 morbidity scenarios in the province, and the media went crazy. Despite the fact that this modelling is not data and that they are mere possible scenarios that are used for planning purposes, it was framed as “data” and in the language of how many people “will die,” as though this was mathematical certainty (though a handful said “could,” as though it were any better). And lo, all of the headlines used both this framing and sensationalism, they buried the new restrictions that are being imposed in Ontario as a result. And when some of the doctors that were being interviewed about these projections, and those doctors pushed back that this wasn’t data, self-righteous journalists threw tantrums about how this was information the public had a right to know, and so on.

But here’s the thing – part of this is a transparent attempt by Doug Ford to justify his further crackdowns, which I get. (Thread from Scott Reid here for context). But at the same time, there is no nuance to reporting of these models, they are incorrectly framed, and it’s throwing a lot of big numbers and timeframes out there without sufficient context. It’s not only disaster porn, but I fear that it will not actually have the desired effect of scaring people into compliance with lockdown measures. Instead, I am reminded of the aphorism that a single death is a tragedy, but a thousand deaths is a statistic – and numbers like these (the wild range of 3000 to 15,000) will have the real possibility of becoming a statistic in people’s minds, which may do more to undermine the whole reason why this modelling was released in the first place. And that worries me more than anything else.

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Roundup: Supplies, spin, and rent

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau’s daily presser was on the theme of medical supplies – signing agreements with three major medical suppliers in the country, MOUs signed with five other companies, and some 3000 other companies who have volunteered to help the government with those supplies in whatever way they can. Trudeau also noted that they have allocated an additional $2 billion for new personal protective equipment, largely by way of bulk-purchasing, and that more supplies would be arriving within days. As well, the government is tasking its next-generation manufacturing supercluster with scaling-up these kinds of producers to meet the domestic and global demand. Why this became a somewhat fraught issue is because there are places in the country where PPEs are being rationed, and Quebec stating that they were days away from running out – though Trudeau said that in some cases, it may be the medical providers who were rationing because they were trying to preserve supplies for an anticipated surge of cases.

[Here is another Q&A with infectious diseases specialist, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, and a discussion on the current debate about masks.]

Meanwhile, the National Post hears from a bunch of government insiders who claim that the attempt to get the power of taxation without parliamentary approval was about trying to hold leverage of the big banks who have been reluctant to loosen lending requirements, which is an explanation that makes absolutely no sense, and makes me again repeat that there appears to be a cadre of jackasses in Morneau’s office who have been responsible for many of this government’s missteps and woes, and we shouldn’t trust them.

And while I’m on the subject of jackasses, I spent much of yesterday on the Twitter Machine trying to remind people that rent is provincial jurisdiction, so constantly hounding the federal government is a waste of time. This was met with numerous people who insisted that the federal government could invoke the Emergencies Act to claim that power. The mind boggles. Why in the hell would the federal government invoke the tool of last resort to intrude into landlord/tenant legislation when the provinces are perfectly capable of doing so on their own. It makes zero sense. Add to that the people crying out that the federal government should immediately give money to renters, as though there were a mechanism to do so. It’s taking the CRA three weeks to retool their systems to deliver the CERB, which is a pretty breakneck speed to ensure that the system can do what’s being asked of it and hopefully not fail doing it (because their computers are not magic, and you can’t just type “give everyone $2000” and expect it to happen. It’s impossible). And no, there is no analogous funding arrangement to healthcare or post-secondary, as others were trying to claim – those are funding envelopes to provincial governments that come with agreements. They don’t go to individuals, and they are not spending in provincial jurisdiction over the objection of any province. The number of people who seem to think otherwise is astounding.

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Roundup: Taking on domestic flights

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For his Saturday presser, Trudeau went tie-less, because it’s the weekend. He mostly offered reassurances, but did say that formal orders were coming to keep symptomatic people from domestic flights and trains – which the federal government has authority over – but long-distance busses were provincial responsibility, so look there. He also mentioned – which was followed up by the Chief Public Health Officer minutes later in her own briefing – that there were signs that physical distancing was starting to bend the curve in BC, but as Dr. Theresa Tam reiterated, that means that now is the time to double down, not get lax.

Meanwhile, here’s economist Kevin Milligan reminding you of everything announced this week and how to access it.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243954419772715008

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243957017426817024

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243959663126708224

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243961465310023680

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1243963188380454912

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