Monthly Archives: November 2024

Roundup: The GDP data and the “collapsing” economy

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Yesterday was the day that Statistics Canada released the quarterly GDP figures, and they were middling. The economy is sluggish, but 1.0% annualized growth in the quarter is growth, and it bears repeating that we have avoided a recession after the inflationary spike, so this is the “soft landing” that the Bank of Canada was aiming for. And because growth is sluggish, there is plenty of talk that the Bank will likely make another 50 basis point cut in December rather than 25.

The Conservatives rushed to make hay of these numbers, particularly the fact that per capita GDP fell by 0.4% over the quarter, which was the sixth quarterly decline. (Yes, there was revised data that pushed up growth and made the quarterly decline less pronounced for the past two years). And why has there been a decline in per capita GDP? Because at the end of the lockdowns, we ramped up immigration to combat labour shortages, and all of those new workers pushed up our growth enough to avoid a recession, and because the denominator has been increased faster than the numerator, it’s a pretty solid indication that the growth could very well be much stronger once we get it back on track. To that end, the Conservatives’ press release compared our non-annualised figures to the American annualised numbers to make ours look worse (they later issued a correction), and put out misleading tweets that blame Trudeau and not the 2014 collapse in oil prices for the so-called “economic vandalism” that they believe that simple line graphs show.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1862538994221031782

And then there was the absolute mendacity in Question Period. Michael Chong said that the estimated effect of Trump tariffs was less than what Trudeau has done (which is both false and stupid), and Corey Torchor, unbelievably, claimed that the StatsCan data showed that the economy was “collapsing,” and I wish I was making that up. In no way did any of that data indicate that there was anything resembling “collapse.” Sluggish, yes. Collapsing? How? Either the Conservatives are just outright lying with statistics, or they have no clue how to read GDP data (or maybe both). And the funny thing is that all of this concern about declining per capita GDP is a pretty de facto way of saying that they are cheering for an actual recession, which we would have had if we hadn’t juiced immigration the way we did. I wish this wasn’t so stupid, and I wish we had more journalists calling this out, but we don’t because “I was told there would be no math.”

This is incredibly mendacious framing.GDP per capita largely declined because of the influx of immigration, which staved off an actual recession. Saying that Trump tariffs would do less damage than the current government is both stupid and wrong.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-29T21:15:09.167Z

Tochor claims that StatsCan reported that our economy is “collapsing.”Bullshit. Complete and utter bullshit. He doesn’t know how to read GDP data and is going to just lie. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-29T16:37:05.538Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian drone attacks hit residential buildings in Kyiv and Odesa, injuring eight. Ukrainian forces are facing a desertion crisis because of overstretched forces, psychological scarring, and the management of the war. Ukraine’s army chief is pledging more troops on the eastern front after visiting there. Here is a look at Ukrainians dismantling a thermal power plant before the Russians can advance on it.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1862448598702596345

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Roundup: GST “holiday” bill passes

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The federal government got their wish, with the cooperation of the NDP, to get their GST “holiday” bill through the House of Commons thanks to a programming motion that paused the ongoing privilege filibuster for the sitting day. In spite of the Bloc and Conservatives slow-walking it with dilatory amendments, it did pass late at night, with the terms of the motion being that once it passed second reading vote, it would automatically be deemed to have been referred to committee of the whole and passed, and then passed at third reading. (The Senate won’t see it until Tuesday at the earliest). It’s the first opportunity the Commons has had to do real work in more than six weeks, for what it’s worth. The Liberals and NDP, however, think they’ve found a big gotcha, that by forcing the Conservatives to vote against this legitimately terrible policy will be the key to reversing their fortunes in the polls, and their attempts remain cringe-worthy.

Pierre Poilievre took to the microphones to denounce it as “inflationary,” which is actually nonsense because we’re no longer in an overheated economy. Nevertheless, he relies on the simplistic notion that any government spending or deficits are inflationary (and claims that Chrystia Freeland herself this, which isn’t really what she said—not that the truth has ever mattered to Poilievre). Then again, his entire understanding of economics comes from crypto bros on YouTube, so probably best not to take him seriously. It’s still a terrible policy, however, so their opposition to it somewhat accidentally puts them on the right side of the issue, even if the reasons are entirely false and misleading (but broken clocks being right twice a day, and all of that).

As for the implementation of this terrible policy, it just looks even worse as the details emerge. What counts and what doesn’t for the rebate are all over the map, and it’s so chaotic that businesses are, quite rightly, frustrated at just how much work it’s going to be to implement for those two months. None of this should have happened, and the Liberals should have come up with a better measure than this (and rubbed the NDP’s faces in their own ill-conceived GST cut plan), but here we are, and it just keeps getting worse by the day. Well done, guys. Slow clap.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia fired another nearly 200 missiles and drones, targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure to leave more than a million people without power. Fragments from downed drones hit two buildings in Kyiv, injuring one person.

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QP: Undignified exchanges on the GST “holiday”

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Neither the PM nor his deputy were present today, nor were most of the other leaders. Pierre Poilievre was present, and led off in French, and he declared Justin Trudeau to be “weak,” blamed him for Roxham Road, the rise in foreign students and the claim that 500,000 people were “lost,” and demanded to know what he would do to secure the border. Jean-Yves Duclos noted that the relationship with the U.S. is the most important, and praised the changes to the Safe Third Country Agreement. Poilievre accused the government of losing control of the border and that premiers were sending more provincial police to the borders. Duclos took the opportunity to raise Poilievre not having his security clearance. Poilievre switched to English to repeat his first question, with slightly more faux menace, and this time, Marc Miller noted that hundreds of thousands of people come to this country and then leave, who are called tourists and that anyone who doesn’t leave will face consequences, before saying that Poilievre and Tim Uppal have been telling people they won’t be deported because he’ll give them all visas. Poilievre stumblingly called this a “hallucination,” and Miller said he would tweet out the video, before saying that Poilievre needs to “grow a pair” and get his security clearance. Poilievre called this “erratic behaviour” and demanded an election, to which Karina Gould called him all talk and no walk.

Marc Miller just said that Poilievre needs to “grow a pair” and get his security clearance. Speaker Fergus asks him to withdraw those words, and Miller obliges. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-28T19:50:40.348Z

https://twitter.com/MarcMillerVM/status/1862269731329262017

 

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and claimed the government was finally listening to the Bloc and  adding resource to the border (Duclos: The prime minster had a good call with the premiers), and on a follow-up, Mélanie Joly noted that she spoke with François Legault this morning, as well as a number of influential American senators.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP to demand that the “rebate” cheques be expanded to more people. Soraya Martinez Ferrada thanked the NDP for their support on the GST holiday, unlike the “grinches” on the other side. Laurel Collins took over in English to also demand the rebate be expanded, and this time, Ferrada praised in French their (wholly inadequate) disability benefit and took the jab at the NDP for not supporting workers.

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Roundup: The virtual meeting with the premiers over Trump

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Prime minister Justin Trudeau had his virtual meeting with the premiers yesterday evening, and it has been a really interesting divergence in reactions. Jagmeet Singh is panicking and demanding performative forcefulness, while Pierre Poilievre is trying to leverage the moment for his own political ends, claiming that the solution is to do everything he says (conveniently!). Premiers have been all over the map, going from caution to outright boot-licking (looking at you, Danielle Smith), and this was one of the messages that emerged from that meeting. I also find it particularly crass the number of premiers who set up American flags for their backdrops before their media availabilities before and after the meeting. Seriously, guys?

Chrystia Freeland met with reporters and spoke about the need for a united front and not to be seen to be squabbling with one another, but premiers with their own agendas haven’t really seemed to warm to that necessity, because they’d rather score points against the current government with boneheaded accusations that they were “blindsided” by the threats, and that they don’t have a plan. (They’ve had a plan for over a year, guys. You might want to actually pay attention). And after the meeting, most of the premiers made their own individual points about how they want so many more resources poured into their province (such as more RCMP members that don’t exist because they can’t recruit and train them fast enough, or retain them in the toxic culture of the Force), but Smith remains particularly stubborn in trying to leverage this into foregoing the emissions cap and trying to say that Trudeau shouldn’t be leading the effort to defend Canada (again, to her benefit).

Meanwhile, Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, took a much more aggressive stance with threatened retaliation (which Trudeau has thus far not threatened, preferring a “methodical” approach). Sheinbaum had a call with Trump and basically pledged to keep doing what they were already doing, and Trump declared victory, so maybe Canada will do the same? Trudeau has talked about strengthening border measures, which has been an ongoing process, particularly since the amendment of the Safe Third Country Agreement, so maybe that too will be enough to get Trump to declare victory? I guess we shall see, but in the meantime, we’ll see how many premiers can keep their cool.

Ukraine Dispatch

Explosions were heard in Odesa, Kropyvnytskyi, Kharkiv, Rivne and Lutsk amid reports of a cruise missile attack last night. Three were wounded in a drone attack on Kyiv the night before. Russian forces claim to have taken the settlement of Nova Illinka in Donetsk region. Germany’s intelligence chief says that Russian sabotage in NATO countries could trigger Article 5.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1861772687229501452

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QP: The “brains and backbone” to defend Canada

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The prime minister was present and ready to take all questions, as is his usual wont on Wednesdays, and nearly all of the other leaders were also there. Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and worried about the threat of tariffs from the US, but insisted that our economy, the borders, and the PM himself was weak, and demanded an election so that a “strong leader” could put Canada First™. Just Trudeau said it was ironic because they had given the Conservatives a chance to put Canadians first, but they kept voting against initiatives to help people, such as dental care and the school food programme. Poilievre repeated the mocking falsehood that Trudeau’s only plan was a Zoom call with premiers, Trudeau insisted that while the other guy was putting on a little show, he and his party were there for Canadians, and added that the Conservatives are only sowing chaos and discord. Poilievre switched to English, and once again listed things he considered the government to have “weakened,” and wanted an election so there was someone with the “brains and backbone” to defend the country, to peals of laugher from the Liberal benches. Trudeau said that while Poilievre is concerned only about himself and Trudeau, they were focused on Canadians. Poilievre said that was an example was a sign that Trudeau has lost control, and demanded an election. Trudeau mocked that Poilievre was up all night practicing that line in the mirror, and listed ways that the government was there for Canadians. Poilievre insisted that was a “mass hallucination” and that those programmes don’t exist outside of his head, and again demanded an election. Trudeau said this was an example of Poilievre trying to gaslight Canadians, and used dental care as an example of a programme that is working.

Poilievre says that only he has the “brains and backbone” to defend the country.The Liberal benches erupted in peals of laughter. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-27T19:33:11.389Z

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and said that nobody wants Trudeau’s vote-buying Christmas gift, to which Trudeau praised the GST holiday as helping those struggling. Blanchet said that those who need the cheques most won’t get it, and demanded a confidence vote. Trudeau said it was up to the opposition parties to vote to help people rather than engage in petty partisan games.

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the NDP to raise the story of a woman on disability who can’t work, but her spouse is a high-income earner and he will get the cheque and not her (which doesn’t seem like a great anecdote). Trudeau mocked that he remembered a time when the NDP stood up for workers, but now they are not supporting this rebate for workers, and said that they wanted the rebate to acknowledge the hard work of workers. Alistair MacGregor took over in English to also denounce that seniors were not getting the cheque, and Trudeau repeated his same mocking in English. 

No, that spike of inflation was not the worst we had ever seen. It was much higher and more persistent in the seventies and eighties. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-27T19:39:49.718Z

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Roundup: Falling over each other to defend Trump’s position

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The first day of fallout from Trump’s tariff threats was full of more panicked flailing, and performative attempts at toughness. Danielle Smith, Scott Moe, and BC’s opposition leader John Rustad fell all over themselves to demand Trudeau address Trump’s border concerns (because boot-licking is how you really own the Libs, apparently). Pierre Poilievre took to the microphone to debut his latest slogan of demanding a Canada First™ plan, which basically involved all of the things that he’s already been calling for—most especially cutting taxes, killing the carbon levy and eliminating environmental regulations—plus more handwavey demands to increase defence spending (which he’s never committed to), and an even more authoritarian crackdown on drugs than he had previously been planning under the guise that Trump was somehow right about fentanyl coming over the border. He also full-on invented the claim that this announcement caught Trudeau’s government off-guard (never mind that they’ve been spending the past year re-engaging with American lawmakers at all levels for this very contingency). Best of all was that he insisted that the prime minister needs to put partisanship aside, and then launched into a screed of partisan invective, and said that putting partisanship aside means doing what he wants. If this was an attempt to show that he’s an adult in the face of trouble and that he has the ability to be a statesman, well, this was not it—just more of the same peevishness that he always displays.

Meanwhile, Justin Trudeau will be holding a virtual meeting with the premiers later today. One of the Bank of Canada’s deputy governors made the unsurprising observation that those tariffs would have economic repercussion on both sides of the border. The Logic has a look at the impact on Canadian business, plus a reality check on fentanyl seizures going into the US and irregular border crossings, and the legalities of Trump’s declaration.

https://twitter.com/tylermeredith/status/1861533934724563237

I probably shouldn’t be surprised at the number of people with a platform in this country who insisted that Trump must be right, and it must be our fault that he’s doing this, but seriously? Capitulate and boot-lick at the first opportunity? He doesn’t have a point. If anything, there is a bigger problem with American drugs, guns, and migrants coming into our borders, and we aren’t threatening massive tariffs until the Americans secure their border, because that would be insane, and yet, supposedly intelligent and successful people in this country suddenly think the reverse must be true. We live in the stupidest of times.

https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1861207325651943487

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QP: Trotting out a Canada First™ slogan

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In the wake of the panic over the first Trump 2.0 pronouncement about Canada, the PM was present for QP, though his deputy was not. All of the other leaders were presented for a second day in a row, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and immediately demanded a “Canada First™” plan for the border and security, and claimed the government had no plan other than a Zoom call, and blamed Trudeau for the “chaos” at the borders. Justin Trudeau responded that he had a good call with Trump last night and that he underscored how well they have worked together for decades in order to create prosperity for all, and insisted that they would always defend Canadian jobs in an non-partisan way as a team. Poilievre said the call didn’t work because Trump threatened with tariffs a few minutes later—not true—and brought up softwood lumber and Buy America, and claimed Trudeau had not gotten any gains for Canada, and claimed Trudeau broke the immigration system. Trudeau said that there are international students who come to Canada, and after they complete their studies, they return home in the majority of cases, and they have a system when they don’t return, and praised their latest immigration changes. Poilievre switched to English to again demand a ”Canada First™” approach, and claiming that Trudeau didn’t have a plan other than a Zoom call, and listed a number of specious issues. Trudeau again noted that he did speak with Trump, and that they had a good conversation and that he was working with the premiers. Poilievre again claimed that the tariff announcement was after Trudeau’s call, and then lent credence to Trump’s nonsense about drugs and the border. Trudeau noted that Poilievre was making stuff up, that the call was after the announcement, and that it was time to work togetherness rather than engage in partisanship. Poilievre, flailing, tried to claim that the timing was somehow worse, and then claimed that Trudeau was putting a “tariff on jobs” and demanded tax cuts and an end to the carbon levy. Trudeau said that again Poilievre was making stuff up, and if he wanted to re-criminalise marijuana, he should just say so.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, noted the disruptions all around, and wanted the “rebate” cheques extended to seniors. Trudeau noted that everyone gets the tax cut, but talked around the issue with somewhat hollow platitudes. Blanchet wanted the threshold for the cheques pulled down so seniors could get the cheques, and Trudeau noted that people are struggling in different ways, and listed programmes to help like child care, dental care, and enriched OAS and GIS.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and demanded a plan to fight back, because bullies only respect strength. Trudeau said that rather than panicking, they are engaging in constructive dialogue with all sides, and that they will stand up for jobs and prosperity. Singh repeated his demand in French, and Trudeau reiterated that they are need to take action in a way that isn’t out of panic.

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Roundup: The first Trump 2.0 salvo

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And so it begins. Donald Trump went on this Truth Social to declare that he’s going to impose 25 percent tariffs against Canada until we secure the border and stop letting illegal aliens and fentanyl across, and predictably, everybody lost their gods damned minds.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1861241979834900615

Guys, he’s signalling he wants counter offers.Throwing someone under the bus is not an offer Doug/Danielle. He can do that without you. What do you have that he needs? Or, what do you have what ppl he needs/owes need? Hint ON: it’s not auto parts.

— Jennifer Robson (@jrobson.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T02:12:33.298Z

Justin Trudeau had a call with Trump apparently shortly after, and Dominic LeBlanc and Chrystia Freeland put out a bland, vaguely-reassuring statement, while Trudeau also had to call the premiers of the two largest provinces to calm them down (as they had already been demanding an emergency First Ministers’ meeting about Trump’s return). In amidst this, Jagmeet Singh was also being performative about demanding Trudeau fight, and so on.

It took less than three hours before the first of the Elder Pundits started demanding that we capitulate on a number of files to Trump while, delusionally, insisting that he can be bargained with in good faith. Honest to Zeus, you guys.

And here's our first sighting of a capitulationist argument. John advocates that we gather and sit down and negotiate "in good faith" with the incoming administration, and then lists a bunch of things where we should just concede.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T04:47:28.634Z

Well, I see that Alaric has brought a lot of Visigoths with him to the gates of Rome. Maybe we should sit down and negotiate with Good King Alaric in good faith and he will agree to sack only half of Rome.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T04:54:19.405Z

I mean, had this strategy succeeded even once with that guy? "Say what you want about Trump, but he sure does respect and respond to people who come and negotiate in good faith." Haha, no.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T04:57:16.619Z

Once everyone calms down and breathes into a paper bag for a few minutes, we need to be clear-eyed about this, and one of the most important things to be clear-eyed about is that if Trump does this, that means he raises gas prices in the American Midwest overnight. Maybe we need to let him discover some consequences for his actions instead of capitulating? It might be a novel approach, and we might suffer some collateral damage, but it might be less than we think.

What action should we take to a threatened 25% tariff?Some thoughts….www.theglobeandmail.com/world/articl…

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T02:14:27.371Z

https://bsky.app/profile/josephpolitano.bsky.social/post/3lbsuq6etic26

I mean seriously if the guy is about to jam a stick in his own damned wheel we don't need to have an emergency Team Canada summit and capitulate our way into offering sacrifices. We should just say…go ahead, and enjoy the pain you're inflicting on yourself.

— Kevin Milligan (@kevinmilligan.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T02:41:01.591Z

You all MOCKED George Lucas and said this was boring or dumb but who’s laughing now???

— Happy Nute Dawn (@nutedawn.bsky.social) 2024-11-26T01:00:33.647Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia once again launched a massive drone assault, targeting Kharkiv, Odesa, and Kyiv, mostly damaging residential buildings. Russian forces are also rapidly advancing toward Kurakhove.

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QP: Blaming Trudeau for a “woke riot”

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While the PM was off to Montreal to address the NATO parliamentary association meeting (which I remind you is not a NATO leaders’ summit), his deputy was present in his stead. Unusually, all of the other leaders were present on a Monday with no PM present, and Pierre Poilievre was present and led off in French, and he blamed Trudeau for the riot in Montreal, listed off a metric tonne of absolute bullshit, and demanded an election. Bill Blair said that what was on display was criminality, and that everyone must condemn it in no uncertain terms. Poilievre repeated the same bullshit in English, and this time Blair denounced the attempt to score partisan points off of what happened. Poilievre returned to French to take a swipe at the Bloc for supporting the government and demanded an election, and Chrystia Freeland said that every member has an opportunity to help Canadians with their measures, and wondered if the Conservatives would be free to vote into help people. Poilievre returned to English again to decry the “tax trick” of the GST “holiday,” and Freeland noted that in Canada, inflation, interest rates, deficits and the public debt are lower than the U.S., and repeated the question as to whether Conservatives would be free to vote for the tax holiday. Poilievre then denounced the notion of a “vibe-cession,” and Freeland suggested that Poilievre needs to be a little more economically literate, noted the upward GDP revisions, and the increase in per capita GDP.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, to decry that the cheques would go to high-income earners but not seniors, and Freeland said that they take the concerns of seniors seriously, and noted that they have supported seniors more than any government in the past, and that the federal expenditure on seniors is $48 billion. Blanchet decried the “discrimination” of this measure, and Freeland noted that seniors who are still working will get the cheque.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP to also decry that seniors won’t get that cheque, calling them the “most vulnerable” (the vast majority of seniors are not). Freeland reiterated that that how is the time to help people who have been through tough times with extra support. Singh switched to French, he repeated his condemnation of the exclusion of seniors, and added in students for good measure, and Freeland said that she hoped that the NDP would help them help Canadians.

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Roundup: Was Montreal razed?

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You might have thought it was the apocalypse, as a bunch of anti-NATO and pro-Palestinian rioters damaged property and set some cars on fire in Montreal (as the city was set to host a meeting of the NATO Parliamentary Association, which is NOT a NATO leaders’ meeting), while Justin Trudeau was at the Taylor Swift concert with is daughter. Suddenly every, particularly a bunch of American blue-check accounts on Twitter, followed by Pierre Poilievre and a bunch of people who should otherwise be rational actors in Canada, were screaming that “Montreal was burning to the ground” (it was not), and treated this like the proverbial Nero fiddling as Rome burns. (Violins were not invented yet, for the record).

Without getting into the absolute bullshit that Poilievre was spouting in his lengthy rant, I have to keep asking people what exactly Trudeau should have done? This is explicitly a job for the local police, and it sounds like they shut it down in fairly short order because, well, riots happen in Montreal on a not-infrequent basis. Riots happened during the Harper era, that were frequently about hockey games, but hey, this is all because Trudeau. There was literally nothing Trudeau could have done in the moment. And yes, a bunch of chuds on social media tried to equate this with the invocation of the Emergencies Act during the occupation of downtown Ottawa, as though anything about the two situations were remotely similar, and even then it wouldn’t have made a difference, because the local police shut down those rioters and made arrests. One of the rioters was outed as the owner of a Second Cup franchise, and the company tore up her franchise agreement the next day. (Consequences!) All things that Trudeau could do nothing about because it’s not his role or responsibility. People need to get a gods damned grip.

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy made another call for more air defences after another mass drone attack overnight Saturday; Zelenskyy also noted that since last July, 321 port infrastructure facilities have been damaged. Military sources have said that Russia has lost over 40 percent of the territory it took in the Kursk region of Russia. Here’s a look back at the past week in the conflict, and how the pace has accelerated with long-range missile strikes on both sides. Ukrainian forces are studying the remains of those new Russian missiles.

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