Tag Archives: General Carignan

Roundup: Authoritarian theatre, separatist referendum edition

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Danielle Smith’s attempt to engineer a separation referendum in Alberta went entirely off the rails yesterday in one of the most cynical yet spectacular ways yesterday. The legislative committee that is supposed to make the determination on the petition process met yesterday, in a somewhat desperate move, to consider the Forever Canada petition, which Smith has been poised to weaponise as her referendum because it wouldn’t require First Nations consultation because it’s framed in the positive of remaining in Canada. Never mind that petition author and former deputy premier Thomas Lukaszuk doesn’t actually want this as a referendum—he wants it to be a vote in the legislature, so that the UCP owns it. Nevertheless, midway through the meeting, the UCP sent out a press release saying that they had agreed to turn this into a referendum, complete with quotes from the chair, when no votes had been taken.

And then all hell broke loose. The UCP sent out a note to disregard the press release, while inside the committee, NDP members were moving points of privilege which will need to be adjudicated by the Speaker of the Assembly. It also turns out that Danielle Smith had booked airtime tonight, so this entirely looks like the fix was in, and that the committee process was merely authoritarian theatre to manufacture consent, so that Smith can continue to placate the separatists in her base. The whole thing is both cowardly on Smith’s part, and just amateurish beyond belief.

Now we know.Smith committed to give separatists a referendum. She pre-recorded her tomorrow’s TV address, before the Legislature committee had a chance to vote on the #ForeverCanadian petition. UCP sent out a press release on a vote that didn’t happen, while they supposedly listened to me#ableg

— Hon. Thomas A. Lukaszuk (@lukaszukab.bsky.social) 2026-05-21T00:17:52.059Z

But there is a point to this amateurishness, which Jen Gerson points out here—these people think that they’re strategic geniuses for engineering conservative victories in Alberta, and so they’re overconfident in their abilities. Jason Kenney was, and lo, the leopards he let into the house at his face, while Smith has tied herself into so many knots to try and placate those same leopards in the hope that they won’t eat their face, while they are staring at her and licking their chops, but she insists that she’s the strategic genius here. None of this is going to end well, in part because these are deeply stupid and unserious people, and the country is going to suffer as a result.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-20T19:08:01.746Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missile, drone and artillery attacks on Dnipro killed two and injured six. Ukraine is bolstering their northern defences over concerns of a planned new attack on Kyiv. Oil refining in central Russia is at a standstill thanks to Ukrainian attacks.

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Roundup: A call to ignore Pathways

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In a sit-down interview with The Canadian Press, prime minister Mark Carney says that an oil pipeline out of Alberta is “more likely than not,” and this doesn’t mean the revived Keystone XL (aka “Bridger Pipeline”). But he’s also not saying anything about Pathways, which is a bit suspicious because he tied the approval to Pathways getting underway, and industry has made it very clear they’re not interested in paying for it.

To that end, who showed up in the op-ed pages of the Globe and Mail but Martha Hall Findlay, former Liberal MP and now head of the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, who put on a big show to say that she found it hard to write, but lo, she must recommend that the government “pause” Pathways, because it’s useless on a global scale, and “the world changed.” And then there was more hand-wringing and rationalization that Canada is such a small contributor to global emissions that it doesn’t matter.

The world didn’t change. Facts didn’t change. Climate change didn’t stop with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, so quite frankly, this is bullshit and special pleading. The notion that we don’t contribute enough to global emissions is such a poor argument because it’s a common action problem. We have some of the highest emissions on a per capita basis, and yes, that matters. Hall Findlay was going on about how this is all about ego, and we just want to look like we’re leaders, but guess what—every action matters. And if you think that it’s too expensive to reduce emissions now, well, it’s going to be even more expensive the longer we push it down the road, when the effects are even more entrenched globally. We’re already spending billions of dollars in insurance payouts every year that are directly related to climate. The vast majority of food price inflation is climate-related, even if people don’t want to admit it. Frankly, these arguments of hers are tired and baseless and not worth listening to, no matter how much she insists she still believes in climate action…eventually.

My favourite moment in any oil price shock cycle is when the Very Serious Energy People explain why this — again! — is not the time to give a shit about the climate crisis

— Chris Turner (@theturner.bsky.social) 2026-05-01T15:21:29.234Z

If Canada can make that argument at 1.4% then presumably so can Saudi Arabia (1.5), Iran (1.9) and Japan (2.0).Then I imagine both Indonesia (2.3) and Brazil (2.5) would say, "hey, us too." And at that point, you've ruled out 204 countries accounting for roughly 46% of all national emissions.

— Aaron Wherry (@aaronwherry.bsky.social) 2026-05-01T15:02:42.580Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-01T19:08:02.330Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched yet another attack on port infrastructure in Odesa early Friday, and then launched more than 400 drones in a daytime attack that injured ten people in Ternopil in the west. Ukraine is planning an overhaul of its military rotations, particularly after an outcry over images of emaciated soldiers emerged.

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Roundup: A major agreement with the EU

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At the Canada-EU summit in Brussels yesterday, Mark Carney signed a new security and defence partnership, and the joint communiqué was very, very long. A lot of stuff that might have been part of a G7 communiqué, but that wasn’t going to happen given how much time and energy was spent managing Trump and the Americans, and that included a lot of talk about upholding the rules-based international order, or combatting climate change, and that kind of thing, that would have caused Trump to throw another one of his public tantrums. But that’s the world we live in now.

This means that Canada is now on the road to participating in programmes like ReArm Europe, which seeks to drive down the cost of joint military procurement projects by increasing the scale of the buys, and helps to keep those industries in Europe rather than relying on the American defence-industrial complex, but the hope is that this agreement will open the Canadian market to those procurements as well (though I am curious to know how many Canadian firms are actually Canadian and not just American branch-plants).

Today will be the big NATO summit where increasing the expected defence spending target is the major focus, though there will likely be some sidebars around de-escalation with Israel and Iran. Ukraine will also be a focus, though president Zelenskyy is not expected to attend (though he was in the UK yesterday to sign new agreements on military production there, and to have lunch with the King at Windsor Castle). Nevertheless, that five percent target—to ostensibly be divided up as 3.5% operational spending and 1.5% in related spending that has some kind of a defence-adjacent component—is going to be incredibly difficult for the majority of countries to achieve, but especially to sustain. You already have some countries who met their two percent target by front-loading a bunch of procurement, but they have no idea how they’ll manage to stay at two percent, let alone 3.5%-plus going forward. (It’s also a dumb metric because it doesn’t deal with contributions to operations, and the disparity between the denominators among member countries is pretty vast, to say nothing about the fact that it’s easier to hit your targets if you crash your economy to drag your denominator down). One hopes there will be some cooler heads around the table, but it looks like the 5 percent is a done deal, which will create problems down the road.

https://bsky.app/profile/plagasse.bsky.social/post/3lsbzgrlhpk2u

Ukraine Dispatch

The attack on Kyiv early Monday wound up killing at least ten, including a child, as an apartment block was struck. Ukraine says that it attacked and set ablaze an oil depot in Russia’s Rostov region.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1937171580552966364?s=61

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Roundup: Clutched pearls over a paper move

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Because everything is stupid, the Conservatives spent the whole day screaming, both at a media availability and over social media, that Mark Carney “lied” about his involvement with Brookfield Asset Management relocating their headquarters to New York, and tried to tie this to Trump inviting companies to relocate to the US. This is something that the Conservatives have been howling about for months, but they claim that there is “proof” now that Carney “lied” because his timeline of events doesn’t match up. And maybe he was wrong, but this has pretty much been a non-story from the start, because this was largely a paper move to their pre-existing New York office in order to get access to the New York Stock Exchange, while their parent company remains headquartered in Toronto. It’s not an actual scandal, but the Conservatives have been ginning up faux-outrage over Carney for two years now, and this is just the latest example.

But I can’t get over the fact that every single Conservative has been lining up to declare that Carney “lied,” when pretty much every single member of that party has been lying about everything under the sun for years now, because they know they can get away with it. The fact that someone like Andrew Scheer isn’t bursting into flames over the abused irony of him of all people trying to call Carney a liar is just too much. It’s not just projection—it’s a complete lack of self-awareness that they lie so much about everything (especially things they don’t actually need to lie about!) that they don’t even realise that they’re doing it anymore, and then they start running for their fainting couches over this absolute non-issue. Unbelievable.

The Conservatives have also taken to calling Carney “sneaky,” and claiming that he’s hiding the truth about his assets, and whether this business activities were benefitting from his advising the government. But as this fact-check explains, he is under no obligation to comply with conflict-of-interest laws because he is not yet a public office holder, but if he does win the contest and becomes prime minister, lo, he will be subject to the disclosures. Again, this is just more faux outraged being ginned up, and making the Conservatives look like they are desperate.

Ukraine Dispatch

The overnight attack on the Kyiv region overnight Tuesday killed two and damaged energy facilities. Russia claims that it retook two settlements in the Kursk region, as more North Korean troops arrive. Ukraine’s drones have hit Russia’s Tuapse oil refinery. Ukraine’s prime minister says a preliminary agreement has been reached with the Americans on an economic deal that includes access to rare earth minerals.

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Roundup: Was Montreal razed?

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You might have thought it was the apocalypse, as a bunch of anti-NATO and pro-Palestinian rioters damaged property and set some cars on fire in Montreal (as the city was set to host a meeting of the NATO Parliamentary Association, which is NOT a NATO leaders’ meeting), while Justin Trudeau was at the Taylor Swift concert with is daughter. Suddenly every, particularly a bunch of American blue-check accounts on Twitter, followed by Pierre Poilievre and a bunch of people who should otherwise be rational actors in Canada, were screaming that “Montreal was burning to the ground” (it was not), and treated this like the proverbial Nero fiddling as Rome burns. (Violins were not invented yet, for the record).

Without getting into the absolute bullshit that Poilievre was spouting in his lengthy rant, I have to keep asking people what exactly Trudeau should have done? This is explicitly a job for the local police, and it sounds like they shut it down in fairly short order because, well, riots happen in Montreal on a not-infrequent basis. Riots happened during the Harper era, that were frequently about hockey games, but hey, this is all because Trudeau. There was literally nothing Trudeau could have done in the moment. And yes, a bunch of chuds on social media tried to equate this with the invocation of the Emergencies Act during the occupation of downtown Ottawa, as though anything about the two situations were remotely similar, and even then it wouldn’t have made a difference, because the local police shut down those rioters and made arrests. One of the rioters was outed as the owner of a Second Cup franchise, and the company tore up her franchise agreement the next day. (Consequences!) All things that Trudeau could do nothing about because it’s not his role or responsibility. People need to get a gods damned grip.

Ukraine Dispatch

President Zelenskyy made another call for more air defences after another mass drone attack overnight Saturday; Zelenskyy also noted that since last July, 321 port infrastructure facilities have been damaged. Military sources have said that Russia has lost over 40 percent of the territory it took in the Kursk region of Russia. Here’s a look back at the past week in the conflict, and how the pace has accelerated with long-range missile strikes on both sides. Ukrainian forces are studying the remains of those new Russian missiles.

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