Even though ballots are still (still!) being counted as of writing time, the general sense is that the remain side of the separation referendum won by approximately 75-25, which is a stomping, but not a roflstomp, and despite what some people are claiming, this is not putting anything to bed. Because Danielle Smith was venal and grasping enough to hold this referendum to appease the separatists she cultivated in her base, she has given them no end of gifts in this referendum—organization, voter lists, and now MAGA-run apps to help with voter identification and organizational support. This is not trivial, because it means that a small but dedicated base can have an outsized impact on the electoral process as a whole in the province, and we’re already seeing that, and they will continue to howl that they are one in four voices in the province (never mind that of that 25 percent, a not insignificant percentage were people who voted yes to “send Ottawa a message,” meaning they didn’t learn their lesson after sending a message to Jim Prentice got Rachel Notley elected). Separatist leaders are already organizing to ensure that Smith doesn’t survive a leadership challenge so that they can install one of their own in the leadership position in the party, and turn the UCP into an actual separatist vehicle. (This may derail the party entirely, mind you, but they have determined that this is their vehicle to achieve their goals without actually organizing their own party). This did not put anything to bed—it has entrenched and emboldened a group who should have been kept marginalized, so thanks for that.
"I'm going to keep feeding you grievance porn but you need to believe in Canada and our capacity to make them give us what we want."What utter fucking bilge.
— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-21T02:25:13.320Z
And then there are the noxious nine other questions. It looks like a lot of voters didn’t even bother with them, but for those that did, eight of the nine are on track to pass with a little over 50 percent each. (The only one failing is the question on letting the province opt out of social programmes and still getting federal dollars, because there is enough distrust in the competence of a provincial government that is routinely mired in corruption). Nevertheless, the purpose of the exercise was for Smith to manufacture consent to go harder on scapegoating immigrants for the problems she caused with her incompetent government, and the worst part is that a) Pierre Poilievre is chomping at the bit to join in, and b) Mark Carney is also participating, and talking about how they’re going to work with provinces to reduce immigration numbers even more. This is not a good look for a country that is going to be in dire need of more labour to help build the big things they want to build, while it continues to let chronically incompetent provincial governments off the hook for doing fuck all about expanding housing, health care and education capacity for new arrivals which are needed to keep us from population decline.
They're both just going to go gung-ho on scapegoating immigrants, and take this referendum as permisison to do so.
— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-21T03:14:30.435Z
There is a further issue out of this referendum is that this is yet more confirmation of the rural-urban split in the province, where you have rural areas much more in favour of separation (and opposing immigration, of course). This is one more problem for Danielle Smith and the UCP, as the demographics are irrevocably shifting in the province in a way that will disadvantage them moving forward (which is why she is trying to gerrymander the next provincial election in a desperate move to preserve the status quo). This is something that needs addressing.
We are two solitudes: the Urban/Rural divideOther than Q5 (proof of citizenship to vote) and Q10 (separation) the votes in yesterday's referendum split across the urban/rural divide.(Note: still lots of counting to do, especially for Qs 1-9)
— Blake Shaffer 🇨🇦 (@blakeshaffer.bsky.social) 2026-10-20T14:24:05.244Z
Ukraine Dispatch:
Russian attacks on energy infrastructure are spreading further west in Ukraine, while a drone strike hit a highway near Kyiv and killed three. Russia also attacked cargo vessels en route to Odesa, as NATO plans to increase its presence in the Black Sea.
Noteworthy:
- Stephen Saideman reminds us that the core grievance of the Alberta separatists is that they are sore losers, and that democracy means losing sometimes.
- Jen Gerson makes the case that the remain side had to fight at a disadvantage because the separatists dealt in fantasy (and yet they keep giving them oxygen).
- Paul Wells gives his reflections of the referendum, and makes some interesting comparisons to the 1995 Quebec referendum, and what has changed since.
Until we actually hold provincial governments to account for their failures and until we stop letting them blame Ottawa for everything, they won't focus on reform. We The Media let them off the hook every single time.
— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-20T14:48:05.275Z
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