Tag Archives: Referendum

A PQ win with a minority legislature

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It looks like the Parti Québécois have won government with a minority legislature, which is at least better than their winning a majority and using that to do a bunch of very bad things over the next few years. The governing CAQ were wiped off the map, while both the Quebec Liberals did better than anticipated, and the Quebec Conservatives have made gains, as did Quebec Solidaire. It was a change election, but unfortunately the options for change were not great.

Unfortunately, while you’re going to have a lot of profiles in the next few days about the rise of PSPP and the return of the PQ after they were nearly wiped out in the last election, much of the dialogue save a few outlets are going to be pretty mute about the fact that what underpinned the PQ campaign was outright racism, and that the foundations for this were laid by the CAQ running an ethnic nationalist regime for two successive legislatures while nobody could be bothered to call it out. And now PSPP is going to try and do stupid, unconstitutional things like try to “abolish the monarchy” in the province, and I’m sure there will be a wholly inadequate response to that as well.

Meanwhile, because a bunch of people are going to focus on the popular vote figures from this election result, we’re going to see the electoral reform nerds rise up again, and it’s going to be incredibly tiresome. A reminder: The popular vote is not a real thing. It’s a logical fallacy, because this is not one election, it’s 127 separate but simultaneous elections, and just aggregating the results in spite of the fact that you had different numbers of parties and people on the ballots in each riding means you’re making false comparisons across the board. We elect individuals, not parties, in spite of what people think, and that matters. But everyone is going to distort how the system works over the next few weeks amidst all of the hand-wringing, so I fully expect this to work my last nerve.

I am going to have to spend the next number of weeks reminding everyone that the popular vote is not a real number. It's a logical fallacy because this was not one election, it was 127 separate elections that happened at the same time. Adding them up is not a meaningful number.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-10-06T03:58:39.965Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-10-05T19:08:01.723Z

My Latest:

My weekend column recounts what was said and not said at the Independent Senators Group’s tenth anniversary discussion, and what it says about the “independent” Senate.

For National Magazine, I recount the speeches during the Supreme Court of Canada’s ceremonial opening of the judicial year.

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Never missing an opportunity to be himself

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For Truth and Reconciliation Day yesterday, the prime minister was in Edmonton (as he’s still on his oil and gas announcement tour), and gave the usual assurances that this is a process and a journey we are all on, but there didn’t appear to be much in the way of firm commitments on a renewed push for action, and when you consider that his government has been slowly walking back from commitments around the environment, or their shameful walking back of the rights that were expressed in the previous government’s version of the clean drinking water legislation, well, it’s a reminder that a lot of the things Carney says when it comes to his commitments to things tend to be somewhat tenuous and vulnerable to being walked back.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre decided that he couldn’t resist a moment to keep being his worst self, so he put out a statement that blamed residential schools on “government interference,” which is what he’s also blaming Alberta separatism on. (When all you have is a hammer…) One probably shouldn’t be too surprised at just how much he completely missed the point in all of this, or the fact that he’s making this all about his faux grievances and bugaboos rather than about the truth of what Canada as a whole perpetrated, or to making any commitment to doing better in the future. Because of course not. This is Poilievre we’re talking about.

Only Pierre Poilievre could turn Truth and Reconciliation Day into a gripe about federal government "intrusion."

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-09-30T20:38:11.023Z

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-09-30T19:08:01.442Z

My Latest:

My column wonders why Mark Carney seems so eager to go along with the Big Lie that underpins the referendum that Danielle Smith has engendered.

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Poilievre endorses the Big Lie

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Pierre Poilievre gave a “major speech” in Edmonton last night, which was supposed to be his big speech for the Remain side in the upcoming Alberta referendum, and wouldn’t you just know it, he endorsed Danielle Smith’s Big Lie, once again insisting that the fake grievances that successive provincial leaders have drummed up for political gain were not only real, but that they were because the federal government—not saying “Liberal”—was guilty of constitutional overreach. The problem is not only that by endorsing the Big Lie, he feeds the separatists’ cause, but that he’s articulating a fairytale version of federalism that has never existed and that no province actually wants.

According to Poilievre, Albertans keep having their “personal freedoms” trampled on by a federal government, who are supposed to only take care of “borders, national defence and criminal law,” while provinces should be left alone to deal with health care and education. But this is fantasy—the federal government may write a common criminal code, but provinces enforce and administer it. The federal government has steered clear of education, and when it comes to healthcare, the provinces were not strong-armed into accepting federal dollars for it. If anything, they would rather not pay for any of it at all (while still insisting on retaining full control). And add to that, the federal government has not been “regulating our resources”—there is shared jurisdiction over the environment, particularly because emissions do not stop at provincial borders, but the federal government is not regulating the resources. The market has done that after the oil price crash of 2014 (which Poilievre conspicuously ignores). And frankly, not that many Albertans are that exercised about hunting rifles.

But what pisses me off in addition to the capitulation to Smith’s Big Lie is the fact that the National Post (the only major outlet to actually write about the speech), insisted that Poilievre “never once mentioned the federal Liberal Party or Prime Minister Mark Carney, leaving aside politically-charged attacks in favour of a more statesmanlike appeal to the problem of government excess.” He didn’t say “Liberal” but he spoke about the previous decade of government, which was the Liberals. That’s not being “statesmanlike.” It’s being a petulant child who continues to lie because it suits his purposes. Stop trying to give him a pass because he can barely manage the bare minimum.

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Opposing Alberta separatism is inconvenient for many Conservatives

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In find myself extremely annoyed with Conservatives who are whining that they’re accused of not helping enough with the Remain side in the upcoming Alberta referendum, because they’re not helping. And why aren’t they helping? There are a number of reasons. One of them is that they don’t want to alienate the separatists, who are also in their voter base. Remember that their electoral strategy has been to court the far-right (and yes, the separatists are far-right), including adopting their language and pandering hard to them, rather than courting the political centre. Another reason is that they can’t stop using the same lies that the separatists use in order to attack the Liberals, many of those being around the so-called “strangling” of development, which is and always has been bullshit. Their resources have been constrained by the world price of oil, especially after it collapsed in 1981, and again in 2014. In both cases, they blamed a Trudeau (even though Stephen Harper was in power in 2014), but the effect is the same. Finally, the Conservatives are sympathetic to the cry-baby nature of the separatist threat, that it’s more about there being a Liberal government federally. Manh Albertans have developed a warped view of democracy because they have lived in what is essentially a one-party state for most of their lives, and they cannot fathom that it’s legitimate if a party other than the Conservatives governs, and so they throw these tantrums. So, when Dane Lloyd says “They don’t have a problem with Canada. They have a problem with Ottawa,” what he is effectively saying is that they have a problem with Liberals, so by “fixing that,” they mean Conservatives need to be in power. It’s all bullshit and they’re not helping the Remain side so long as they continue to lie and treat this like an excuse to score partisan points.

Meanwhile, separatist leaders are trying to trot out the line about voting for “Option 2” (meaning a “binding referendum”) as a means of giving Alberta “leverage” against the federal government, which is also a big lie. You don’t announce you are doing something to gain leverage, because that announces that you actually have none, and you know that these lying shitbags will then say “Look at all of the people who voted for separation, we need to continue the process” even though they have absolutely no democratic legitimacy to do so (and the fact that referendums are elite-driven fuckery). Do not give them the excuse—and that especially means not boycotting this referendum out of protest. Danielle Smith is trying to burn democracy to the ground in the province for her own benefit, and that means it’s all hands on deck to stomp this whole thing down.

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2102832673043648730

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-09-23T13:08:05.225Z

My Latest:

My column looks at the ways in which Danielle Smith is trying to engineer a crisis of confidence in democracy in the province as she sabotages Elections Alberta.

My Loonie Politics Quick Take looks at the return of Parliament for the fall sitting.

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An omnibus bill to burn down their goodwill

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The Carney government opened the fall sitting by tabling a massive 243-page omnibus bill, titled the—wait for it—Building Canada Strong Act. Dear reader, I am beyond tired of every iteration of “Build Canada Strong” that the prime minister utters and names things with. Get some new adjectives. Please. I implore you. This aside, the bill covers three major areas—a promise to reform environmental assessments so that they only take a year; amending the Canada Labour Code so that they can try to head off labour disputes in federally-regulated sectors; and putting in place a trade corridors strategy that includes a council to monitor the situation with said corridors.

First of all: Steven MacKinnon claiming this isn’t an omnibus bill because it’s all related to the economic situation is pure bullshit, and he should be absolutely shame-faced that he tried to get away with saying with a straight face on live television. We’re not idiots, and it’s not great when the government tries to treat us like we are. Secondly, trying to fast-track environmental assessments is likely to just wind up in more lawsuits. Stephen Harper tried this tactic and it failed. And trying to rush resource-strapped First Nations through consultations on an expedited basis without providing them with more resources to do the work is going to result in more delays and more litigation. And I really, really dislike the notion that proponents can both just pay a fee when they disrupt fish habitats, because that just means it’s the cost of doing business and doing nothing for actual environmental protection. Or that they can start construction before project approvals, because then that just turns into “Well, now you have to approve it, because of sunk costs.”

Between this environmental betrayal and the government’s dubious actions when it comes to labour rights, they are trying really hard to burn all of their progressive credentials while claiming it’s because we’re in some kind of crisis, and because the country is still in love with Finance Daddy that they’re going to get away with it for a while, but that will eventually come to bite them in the ass, and right now, I don’t think any of them are thinking that far ahead. Burning the public’s trust is a dangerous game, and a Teflon leader only lasts so long before it starts to peel and flake, and turn toxic.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-09-21T19:08:01.518Z

Potash

Also yesterday, Trump tried to troll Canada by saying he was going to get potash from Belarus for cheaper than he could get it from Canada, and that set off a whole bunch of people, clearly unaware that earlier in the day, noted ABBA superfan Alexander Lukashenko said that they don’t have any spare potash to send to the US even if they wanted to (to say nothing about the logistics of transporting it, since they are landlocked and it couldn’t go through the EU). But boy, did a bunch of people fall for it. Especially the “Blame Canada” crowd.

https://bsky.app/profile/blakeshaffer.bsky.social/post/3mw2fezlrts2y

https://twitter.com/andrew_leach/status/2102118094487630058

My Latest:

  • For National Magazine, I delve into Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision about that election nullification in Terrebonne, and the interesting 6-3 split.
  • My weekend column worries about the chaotic state of the Alberta referendum.
  • For National Magazine, I preview the fall sitting of Parliament and what’s on the Order Paper now that they’re back.

New episodes released early for C$7+ subscribers. This week I'm talking to @patricklennox.bsky.social about his new book, "On Treason: Alberta Separatism, Foreign Interference, and Canada's Survival in a Revolutionary Age" #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-09-22T00:26:01.392Z

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There’s no such thing as associate membership in the EU

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Because everything is stupid, over the weekend, an American newspaper made reference to prime minister Mark Carney working toward “associate membership” with the European Union, which to be clear, is not actually a Thing. It’s not a real title, and means nothing. That didn’t stop the Conservatives from rising up en masse to declare this to be the worst thing ever. Remember that this crew has more than a few people in their ranks who believed that Brexit was a good thing, and lent their support to the cause. And so, Pierre Poilievre decried that we weren’t going to be the 51st state, or the 28th state in the EU, and then decried the whole thing, and demanded Parliament be recalled (it’s back next week regardless), and that he doesn’t have a mandate for this, so he would need an election. Other members of the caucus chimed in with their own bugaboos around “mass migration” and so on, because of course they did. But remember that at no time did anyone say anything about actually joining the EU.

I’m just getting so tired of this desperate search for relevance in the current moment. We’re not going to be EU members. “Associate membership” is not the same thing, and it’s especially nowhere near forced annexation by the US. Grow the fuck up, guys. We need a competent opposition party.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-09-13T20:22:37.264Z

Carney and his office had to engage in damage control to insist that Canada is not seeking EU membership (which we can’t join anyway, because it’s quite explicit in their constitution that it’s not open if you’re not in Europe), but that he is merely seeking an “unique alliance,” to which the EU will be opening an “antenna office” in Ottawa to help with coordination. None of this is EU membership. But that didn’t stop the Conservatives from going absolutely haywire over it, because they can’t resist the siren song of American culture war bullshit, where the far-right derides “decadent” Europe and claim that it’s dying economically and socially, while they act as catspaws for the tech bros who resent that Europe is trying to regulate the internet and force them to be responsible, which they don’t want to be, and for which they’ve coopted the US government to protecting them. More than anything, this is just a sign of how desperate and grasping the Conservatives have become for relevance in the current moment. It was a pathetic display that just demonstrates how adrift they are as a party.

My Latest:

  • My Loonie Politics Quick Take has a concrete suggestion for what the new Digital Transformation Canada should be doing, and it’s not pushing more digital asbestos.
  • For National Magazine, I delve into Friday’s Supreme Court of Canada decision on sentencing delays and why they’re fundamentally different from pre-trial delays.
  • My weekend column calls out Evan Solomon for complicity in manufacturing consent for worse digital asbestos outcomes, including deaths, rather than regulating it.

New episodes released early for C$7+ subscribers. This week I talk about the Alberta referendum and why it won't solve the imaginary grievances Albertans have been told to believe in. #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-09-14T02:20:29.215Z

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An intent for a 100-year agreement

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Yesterday was the first day of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s Canadian visit, where there was an announcement in Calgary with prime minister Mark Carney before the pair headed to Banff to address the Cabinet retreat. There were a number of different announcements made, largely with the signature on a “declaration to establish a 100-year partnership,” which means that it’s not finalised, but they still wanted to put on a production. The 100-year thing has already been signed with the UK, and will be more of an intention of long-term support than a binding 100-year agreement of any particular variety, but Ukraine gets the validation of a partner like Canada, amidst the other supports. There was also an energy-partnership signed, new funds for Ukrainian war veterans, and the coordination around new anti-ballistic missile sanctions that Canada is taking the lead on.

One of the big items was a drone deal, where Canada is standing up a drone production industrial base as opposed to an inventory of several thousand drones because of the pace of technological change. A third of that production will head to Ukraine immediately, but this is where Ukraine leads in developing the technology, and Canadian industry will help fund and carry out the production. This is where the future of warfare is headed, and Canada is the first to sign such a deal in the Americas (a number of countries in the Persian Gulf have signed their own deals because of the Iran conflict demonstrated their necessity), but it certainly help ensure that Ukraine has what it needs as the conflict carries on.

Meanwhile, we learned that Carney is still communicating regularly with Trump on issues like Ukraine and Iran (not that he’s bothered to publish a readout of any of these conversations). He spoke about compartmentalising these conversations about the broader trade war happening, but okay. And then he said that he still thinks that there’s a deal to be had with the US, and that we can “strike a fair deal.” We have a fair deal—it’s the New NAFTA. There is no deal to be had with Trump because he doesn’t keep his word, and is a gangster who will always try to take more. Carney may think he’s going for optimism, but he’s just delaying action when we need to make it clear that there’s no going back to “normal” for at least a generation, if not more.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-09-10T13:08:02.542Z

My Latest:

My Xtra column looks at the documents that Alberta separatists have been putting out, and why they may sound great on the surface but have hidden warnings if you look.

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Was it really always “Plan A”?

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Over the long weekend, prime minister Mark Carney released another one of this “Forward Guidance” videos, to talk about the current moment we find ourselves in with the trade war. Some of this was a good bit of history in that one of the reasons for confederation was to guard against American predation, though he didn’t fully spell out that Sir John A Macdonald was very concerned that a newly militarized US post-Civil War would turn their attention northward. And yes, American tariffs did force the newly-united Canadians to better develop their own internal markets because yes, we did a lot of north-south trade at the time as well. He brought up the “iron spine” of the trans-Canada railway with some lip-service as to the human cost of it (more than he has in the past), but from there his metaphors started to drift again. The thing is, that “iron spine” has weakened considerably since free trade, and it’s been a whole lot of north-south trade once again, and his trying to say that the new north-south iron spine would be around energy, both electricity and crude oil, didn’t really make a lot of sense.

More than that, however, Carney was engaging in some revisionist history of his own, insisting that building up our industry domestically and to export to more markets was “always Plan A” didn’t really mesh with his stated desire during negotiations to have a stronger security and defence relationship with the US. He lamented in the video that the Americans were trying to force dependency, but Carney’s own goals included a stronger comprehensive relationship, so it feels a lot like he’s trying to play both sides here. He also said that there’s no going back to “normal” with the US, but again, this has been his whole strategy up until two weeks ago. It feels like he’s only just started saying things he was supposed to be saying all along two weeks ago, and is now pretending like it’s what he was always saying.

And then, of course, he brought up digital asbestos, because it’s “important,” and insisted that Canada would be maintaining its values and sovereignty with it. Erm, really? How? This is just lip service while he continues to swallow the CEO hype around it rather than waking up to the fact that this is garbage tech that is burning cash and the environment, and like he’s trying to be the last guy in before the bubble bursts. It’s getting cringey how much Carney and Evan Solomon are still enthralled by the false promises, like their lives depended on it.

My Latest:

  • For National Magazine, I got some reaction to the news that the Ontario Courts’ case management system suffered a hack.
  • My weekend column wonders if it’s time that we get serious about domestically-built EVs, as the age of the integrated North American auto industry appears to be over.
  • My column on the Conservatives on the Remain side of the Alberta referendum trying to have it both ways by blaming Liberals, playing into Separatist hands.

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Poilievre takes credit for pushing on an open door

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Not unexpectedly, the federal government extended their federal gas excise tax “holiday” for several more months as an “affordability measure,” and then sent out MPs and parliamentary secretaries to pat themselves on the back for it. And the rhetoric is just so braindead. “Image waking up on Tuesday and having to pay ten cents more per litre,” Ryan Turnbull said on Power & Politics by way of justification, and well, yes, that’s what happens when a tax holiday expires. Prices go back up. So unless you plan to keep extending said “holiday” to the point where it’s no longer a holiday but merely a removed excise tax in all but name, then the price will have to go up eventually, and of course you’re going to have to swallow the hit when it happens. And there has also been no mention about the lost revenues from this excise tax and how the particular envelopes of funding that it goes toward will not suffer, while the federal deficit continues to climb. Is Carney laying off civil servants and cutting programmes solely for people to get cheaper gasoline? If so, he should just say so.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre took to social media to take credit for this holiday extension, but of course, it’s not good enough because he is still calling for the destruction of the industrial carbon price (which is not relevant here), and for the clean fuel standard (which is not a tax, and any dollar figures associated with it were mere projections of what it might cost refineries to meet this standard). On the one hand, he’s trying to claim victory for pushing on an open door, which is sad in and of itself. On the other hand, he’s being an obsequious pick-me after his party’s abysmal performance in Monday’s by-elections, so much so that they only came in second in one of those ridings. Nevertheless, we can expect more of this “Conservatives won this round!” back-patting for the weeks to come, while he continues to make more demands to simply destroy all environmental legislation under the most ridiculous pretences possible.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-09-02T19:08:01.648Z

My Latest:

My column points to data showing average income declines in Alberta, and whether the Remain campaign can actually be honest about them or just play into separatist hands.

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A very selective celebration of Alberta’s “birthday”

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Yesterday, Alberta and Saskatchewan had their “birthdays” as provinces, when they were carved out of the Northwest Territories in 1905, and wouldn’t you just know it, the statement put out by the Alberta government first mentioned the First Nations people whose land the province is on, then removed the reference in an updated version, before needing to backtrack and insist that the first version was the correct one. It has also not gone unnoticed that Alberta has not marked the 150th anniversary of Treaty 6 with those First Nations, while Saskatchewan held ceremonies to mark the occasion. It also doesn’t go unnoticed that Danielle Smith has pushed ahead with this quasi-separation referendum in spite of the fact that owing to the treaties, the province can’t actually separate from Canada because it’s not their land. Smith has also said that if the referendum passes, she would hold a “binding referendum on separation” (which is not a Thing because it’s blatantly against the constitution) early in the spring, which should give her plenty of time to “consult” with First Nations. Erm, no. They’ve already stated that your position is contrary to the treaties they signed with the Crown.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre entered the chat and put out separate statements on the Alberta and Saskatchewan “birthdays,” and those statements were very, very different from one another. The Saskatchewan statement talked about the local First Nations and Métis, and the white immigrants who settled in the area, and it was noticeable that he pointed to white immigrants only. The Alberta statement, however, made no mention of First Nations or immigrants of any kind, and instead was all about farmers, ranchers, energy workers, and “freedom!” It was a very, very blatant sop to the separatist sentiments in a minority of the province (remember that Alberta separatism is a white/Christian nationalist project) because he’s too afraid to tell these people that he doesn’t want their votes in his party as a matter of principle. It’s an absolutely craven attempt to play both sides, and it’s going to bite him in the end, and only allows this situation to fester the longer they coddle these loathsome separatists for the sake a few votes.

https://bsky.app/profile/journodale.bsky.social/post/3mui3drbfis2h

As Dale points out, these notably exclude immigrants of colour.My grandparents ran a store in Lake Alma, SK, then moved to Regina, where my grandfather worked at the Model Cafe. They lived above Glasgow Confectionery, then later founded the B. Y. W. Grocery in 1962.Guess we don't count.

— Tim Ford (@timfordwrites.bsky.social) 2026-09-01T19:03:58.660Z

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