Category Archives: Political Roundup

What’s going on in Canadian politics

Roundup: Pearl-clutching about the deficit

Posted on by

For the first time this week, prime minister Justin Trudeau held a presser, wherein he praised the agreement with the First Nations on moving ahead with transferring control over child welfare, mentioned the virtual Cabinet retreat that was held over the previous two days, and mentioned that new pandemic modelling was on the way, noting that there are still hot-spots around the country. And then it was the takeaway message of the day – a mere couple of hours away from the fiscal “snapshot” being delivered, Trudeau made the case that they chose to support Canadians rather than leaving them to fend for themselves, and that the cost of doing nothing would have been far greater on both healthcare and the economy. He reiterated that this was not the time for austerity, but that they have been building a “bridges” to a stronger, more resilient Canada, and drove home the point that the federal government took on debt so that ordinary Canadians wouldn’t have to. He pointed to the low debt-to-GDP ratio, and that historically low interest rates mean manageable borrowing costs. And with one final word on Bob Rae being appointed to the UN, he took questions, one of the first of which determined that he didn’t recuse himself when the WE Charity sole-source contract came before Cabinet, which is something the Ethics Commissioner is looking at. He spoke about the necessity of childcare, that Bill Blair has been engaged on the subject or the RCMP and police brutality as part of the broader Cabinet workplan on combatting systemic racism, that they were following the recommendations of the Auditor General on CBSA, and then reiterated again that with historically low debt-servicing costs, it was easier for the federal government to take it on in order to prevent Canadian households from having to do so. When asked about the relationship with Donald Trump, Trudeau once again reiterated that they have concerns about the possibility of new tariffs, and that it will only hurt American industry because they need Canadian aluminium as they can’t produce enough of their own.

And then the fiscal “snapshot.” While Bill Morneau’s pabulum-heavy speech was pretty much all self-congratulation and a recap of measures they’ve taken, the accompanying documents did show a $343 billion deficit projected for this year (though it has been speculated that this was an outer bound limit designed for them to come under), and that the total debt by the end of this fiscal year could be $1.2 trillion – numbers everyone clutched their pearls about while ignoring that the debt-servicing costs continue to decrease even though the size of the debt has increased. There was mention that the wage subsidy is going to be extended, but with modifications on the way “sooner than later,” but there wasn’t much indication about the broader recovery plan thus far.

Of course, the obsessions among all of the media coverage was the deficit and debt figures, because our reporting narratives remain firmly affixed in the mid-1990s, and no one can break free of them – not to mention the hyperbolic mentions about how this was the biggest deficit since the Second World War (never mind that this is a virtually unprecedented global pandemic we’re facing with a demand-side shock that people can’t seem to wrap their heads around). And because the framing devices remain in the 1990s, headlines obsessed that there wasn’t a plan to curb spending – because of course we know how the epidemiology of this pandemic is going to play out until we get a vaccine at some point in the future. But perspective? You need to turn to the economists on Twitter for that.

https://twitter.com/kevinmilligan/status/1280933038394875905

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280946657106878464

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280948115911045120

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280935717359644672

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280992891343527936

Continue reading →

Roundup: Hot and Bothered for Basic Income

Posted on by

The idea of a Basic Income has been a hobby-horse of parliamentarians for a while, and yesterday the Parliamentary Budget Officer came out with a report that purported to cost one out in a couple of different scenarios. But it’s a bit of a horror show of a report because what it’s actually describing is a cash transfer and not an actual Basic Income scheme, and more than that, some of the things it purports to strip in order to pay for its high price tag are a number of disability supports. Remember that while a Basic Income may sound like a left-wing idea, there is plenty of right-wing support for it if it dismantles the welfare state, where replacing tailored disability programmes with a one-size-fits-all cash transfer is a feature and not a bug. (More from economist Mike Moffatt here).

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280537746881212422

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1280630991661535238

Suffice to say, this report got some senators all hot and bothered, including Senator Yuen Pau Woo, who put out a press release on the topic, calling for a pilot project, so here’s Lindsay Tedds, who worked on BC’s Basic Income project for the last two years, and who knows a thing or two about Basic Income.

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280562781142388736

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280643403349291008

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280623432766353408

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280623434410496003

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280624155994361856

https://twitter.com/LindsayTedds/status/1280628328622219265

Continue reading →

Roundup: A confirmation on uttered threats

Posted on by

We got a better read of the charges against the Rideau Hall intruder from last week, including more specifics on the weapons charges – a restricted revolver, a prohibited rifle, and two legal shotguns – as well as confirmation that the uttering threats charge was indeed directed toward the prime minister. This is, of course, in direct contravention to what RCMP sources were leaking to certain journalists last week that he didn’t intend to harm anyone, which never actually was credible at the time, and yet they dutifully reported it anyway.

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1278788951885721602

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1278809780392427520

What is especially galling is that the RCMP seems to have zero self-awareness that this sort of thing fuels the calls about systemic racism in their organization – doing proper de-escalation and then floating this “not intending to harm” fiction when it’s a white guy with guns as opposed to a Black, Indigenous or otherwise person of colour where they will beat, taze, or outright kill them when they are unarmed. The contrast had been made to the arrest video of Chief Allan Adam video where he was tackled and pummelled for merely mouthing off after police outright harassed him for expired licence plate tags, whereas the intruder was armed and had intent to threaten the prime minister (if not outright assassinate him – that remains for the investigation to conclude and the courts to decide), and he was apparently unharmed after a ninety-minute conversation. The fact that they would float that “no harm” notion when the guy was armed and rammed through the gates pretty much confirms in everyone’s minds that white perpetrators of violence get treated separately and less lethally than anyone else – but they remain oblivious to it. Incredible.

Continue reading →

Roundup: The ritual fiscal demands

Posted on by

With the fiscal “snapshot” on the way on Wednesday, we are seeing the ritual demands of opposition parties being laid out – the Conservatives demanding accurate fiscal forecasts, a proper picture of the deficit and debt, and changes to CERB that they claim will keep it from being a disincentive to work. Oh, and to basically deregulate the energy sector, as though it’s regulation and not the price of oil and a global supply glut that are the cause of a drop in investment. The Bloc want CERB phased out except for the arts, hospitality and agriculture industries. And the NDP want the programmes extended and to be financed by down on tax havens – because that can be done unilaterally and at the drop of a hat!

Of course, the biggest problem with the economic recovery is education and childcare, the lack of which threatens to set women’s participation in the labour force back by 40 years, and yet most of the provinces don’t seem to be too motivated by this fact, as they allow school boards like those in Ontario to come up with cockamamie plans like having kids in school for two days a week. And the worst of it is when you have provinces demanding federal help for things that are explicitly in their jurisdiction like education and childcare – which the federal government has made clear is part of the $14 billion they have on the table – but they don’t want the strings attached. “Just give us the money,” Doug Ford demanded, which isn’t how this works.

And to drive home the point, economists like Jennifer Robson have calculated that keeping these women out of the workforce cuts household incomes by 40 percent, or $113 billion in direct earnings (to say nothing of lifetime earnings), which is a devastating blow to the economy. Would that these provincial governments didn’t assume that it’s fine that they have loaded this onto the shoulders of women in the workforce, and that there won’t be any consequences. It’s time for provinces to behave like grown-ups and make some adult decisions that include women in the labour force.

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1279931083430285312

Continue reading →

Roundup: Exit WE

Posted on by

Prime minister Justin Trudeau seems to be making Fridays his campaign stop field trip presser days, and this time it was to a food bank in Gatineau. Trudeau started off by announcing that because of the situation with the new national security law that China had imposed on Hong Kong, they were suspending the extradition treaty to Hong Kong, as well as exports of certain equipment including military equipment. After commenting about how the government was helping food banks during the crisis, he mentioned that they were moving ahead on delayed infrastructure projects, noting that 92 were getting underway in BC. He also said that he would be hosting a two-day virtual Cabinet retreat next week, where discussions would include how to make the country more resilient during future waves of the pandemic. During the Q&A, Trudeau stated that he was disappointed by Air Canada’s service cuts and hoped that they would be restored as the economy recovers. He also made the point that childcare was an important consideration and why it was one of the conditions for the provinces as part of the $14 billion that is still on the table, and that hasn’t been agreed to. Asked about the intruder on the grounds of Rideau Hall, he simply stuck with thanking the RCMP for their response. And with regards to China, Trudeau said that they were taking action regarding the Hong Kong situation, and looking at steps that Canada can take while we are in discussions with our allies.

Of course, Trudeau also addressed the news that shortly preceded his presser that WE Charity had voluntarily pulled out of the Canada Student Grant programme, for which he said that he was disappointed in how it unfolded, but that he would continue to look for ways to give young people opportunities to serve. He stated that he thought WE had more capacity for training and protectively identifying volunteers, and insisted again that it was the public service that reached out to WE and not his office. And a few hours later, the Ethics Commissioner said he would look into this contract on the grounds of whether or not it furthered the private interests of someone (meaning Trudeau’s family), though I’m not sure how exactly volunteering their time and profile is a material benefit when they get no money from it. Then again, this particular Ethics Commissioner has gone out of his way to invent new interpretations of offences to make it look like he’s being tough, so who knows where this will go.

On the subject of WE, new revelations came out in advance of their pulling out, including criminal activity and fraud in their Kenyan operations in 2017, and the fact that they were offering summer camps $25,000 if they brought in over 75 volunteers over a few months. To add to that, others in the charitable sector are raising questions about the assertion that WE was the only group capable of administering the programme given that they lack links with local groups across the country ­– and the government’s own Canada Service Corps could have been used instead. So it’s no wonder that WE looked at what was before them and decided to pull the plug before even more organizations started digging into their activities, and this government didn’t fight them on it, because maybe they’ve learned a lesson or two on issues management. Maybe.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Armed intruder at Rideau Hall

Posted on by

The big excitement for the day was that there was an Incident at Rideau Hall first thing in the morning, as a Canadian Forces member, who was armed, crashed his truck through the gates of the compound and headed over to Rideau Hall on foot, where he was then apprehended by RCMP in what sounds like a two-hour “dialogue.” Apparently he wanted to “send a message” to the prime minister – who wasn’t at home at nearby Rideau Cottage at the time, nor was the Governor General in Rideau Hall (but if you recall, she has consistently refused to move into the residence there, preferring to stay at Rideau Gate). He was arrested without incident, and has apparently made online posts about a supposed COVID-19 conspiracy theory – and it comes just a day after anti-lockdown protests were happening on Parliament Hill, featuring a former has-been wannabe party leader who shall not be named, and some of the images seen on the Hill included those of Trudeau being hanged, while others touted these kinds of COVID conspiracies. So that’s fun.

https://twitter.com/robert_hiltz/status/1278788951885721602

Meanwhile, over in Alberta, the rhetoric about the plan to hold a referendum on equalization rolls along, so here is political scientist Melanee Thomas to spill some tea about just exactly what they are talking about, and why the arguments aren’t as clever as they think they are.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Yet more questions about the WE contract

Posted on by

The whole situation with the sole-source contract for WE Charities continues to spiral, as one of the co-founders was found to have claimed that PMO reached out to them shortly after the April announcement on the creation of the student grant programme – only for him to have since retracted and said that he was over-enthusiastic, and it was really a senior bureaucrat from Employment and Skills Development Canada. PMO has also since denied making contact, and senior bureaucrats have stepped up to say it was them, but while that may in fact be the case, it’s still the minister who is responsible for the decision, and I don’t see any minister stepping forward on this. It just goes back to this government’s complete inability to manage their own crisis communications without stepping on six more rakes along the way. It’s complete amateur hour.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1278109329279848451

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1278110217339797514

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1278111038089674752

On top of this, it sounds like part of the way in which WE is managing this programme is to offer $12,000 payments to teachers who can recruit 75 to 100 students, and to be their mentors and managers along the way, which is unusual. It also raises the question of how this was what was so imperative about how this organization was the “only one” capable of administering the grant programme if this is how they’re running it. All the more reason for MPs to call an emergency committee meeting and haul the responsible minister and deputy minister before them to answer questions and provide documentation that proves that WE was the only outfit that could meet their criteria – you know, like it’s their job to.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Trudeau slows to a summer pace

Posted on by

Prime minister Justin Trudeau was back at Rideau Cottage yesterday morning, for what he promised would be the last “daily” briefing, though they haven’t been daily for a few weeks now. And there really wasn’t anything new to announce – yet another reminder that the Canadian Emergency Business Account and commercial rent subsidies were good things, that there were still hotspots of pandemic around the country, but that we are making progress – but are not out of the woods yet – and oh, yeah, the New NAFTA comes into force on Wednesday. During the Q&A, Trudeau stated that American chest-thumping over tariffs only hurts them because they need Canadian aluminium as they can’t produce enough of their own. When asked about the Human Rights Watch report on Canadian foreign fighters being held prisoner in Syria, Trudeau insisted that they are preoccupied with the safety of diplomatic personnel in the region, and we don’t have any in Syria, which makes the complicated situation even more complex because most of these prisoners are facing charges. (Not everyone buys this argument). And when asked yet again about We Charities being given that contract, Trudeau again insisted that the advice of the public service was that only they could deliver on the scale that was required, and that some 25,000 students hand applied over the past few days, to prove the point.

A short while later, Dr. Theresa Tam gave her last regular update as well, as those pressers also take on a less daily pace, as well as unveiled new federal modelling numbers, which show that the pandemic is largely under control, but with the warning that people need to keep up good habits around distancing and hygiene, lest flare-ups start happening.

Meanwhile, in Alberta, Jason Kenney and his finance minister unveiled their economic recovery plan, and it was complete with mistruths, and tired magical thinking that tax cuts will automatically create jobs (when these rapid cuts will only benefit existing players rather than attract future ones), or that hectoring tech firms for not upping sticks to relocate to the “cheap rents” of Calgary and lower taxes as being “irresponsible.” So yeah, good luck with that. Meanwhile, here’s Andrew Leach with a bit of a fact check.

Continue reading →

Roundup: Considerations before making masks mandatory

Posted on by

As the mask debate continues to circle around and around, one of the things that seems to need pointing out is that if you’re going to mandate wearing masks (which, it needs to be re-stated is a provincial and/or municipal decision and not a federal one), that is going to have to come with some sort of consequences for not adhering to rules for wearing it, and that’s where things get very sticky, and start getting into areas where civil liberties start getting at stake – and if there are to be no consequences for not adhering, then what’s the point of making them mandatory? So it’s not really as easy as you may think.

Meanwhile, here is infectious disease specialist Dr. Isaac Bogoch on why this is not a cut-and-dried discussion.

Continue reading →

Roundup: More questions about the WE contract

Posted on by

It was another campaign stop – err, media availability field trip for prime minister Justin Trudeau, where he headed to a local brewery that has converted part of their production line to produce hand sanitizer to both highlight that the country is now nearly self-sufficient in the production of personal protective equipment, but also to once again highlight how great the wage subsidy is, and please, for the love of the gods, would employers take advantage of it (and get people off of CERB). He mentioned Thursday’s teleconference with the premiers and the $14 billion that the federal government has put on the table, but the fact that they haven’t apparently taken him up on it would seem to me that this is a bit of public diplomacy on Trudeau’s part to try to get the premiers to take it with the strings attached. From there, he said that the Canadian Forces personnel would start withdrawing from some of the long-term care facilities in Quebec where the Red Cross could step in, but also that the Forces were going to stabilize four more residences. And finally, he gave a shout out to Pride, which is no longer happening in Toronto this weekend because of the pandemic, but it is still nice to have a prime minister that acknowledges it.

During the Q&A, Trudeau said that changes to the wage subsidy were on the way so as not to be a disincentive for companies growing beyond the qualifying criteria – but we’ll see what “soon” means. He stated that they did have a plan in the works to help the Royal Canadian Legion branches that are in danger of closing because of the pandemic, and when asked about the anti-racism statement that all of the First Ministers put out earlier in the week, Trudeau said that they didn’t come to an agreement on systemic racism, but that reporters would have to ask the premiers which ones they were. (Spoiler: It’s Quebec). And then there were the questions about the service grant contract being given to WE Charities. Trudeau said that it was about creating opportunities, and that they needed to have a partner with established networks, and very clearly annunciated that it was the civil service that recommended WE as the only organization capable of delivering those networks on the scale being asked. He also said that while they were covering WE’s costs, the organization wouldn’t be profiting. It’s still pretty dubious, and here’s Alex Usher laying out some of the questions that remain outstanding on this whole affair.

Continue reading →