Category Archives: Political Roundup

What’s going on in Canadian politics

Roundup: The allegations reach Queen’s Park

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Another day, another Global news story about supposed foreign interference allegations, this time naming Ontario PC MPP Vincent Ke as someone who has been working on behalf of the Chinese government, and who was given funds to disperse for election influence. Ke denies this, but Doug Ford swiftly demoted him from parliamentary assistant to committee chair, and then hours later, Ke “voluntarily” stepped out of caucus for the time being. But there are a lot of problems with the reporting in the piece, as both Stephanie Carvin and Jessica Davis—both of whom are former CSIS analysts—point out in separate Twitter threads that are absolutely essential reading to understand why this reporting is so suspect.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1634268769697640449

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1634272246817607682

https://twitter.com/JessMarinDavis/status/1634282290921590798

Meanwhile, former Senator Vern White is calling out the Conservatives’ characterisation of NSICOP to be the bullshit that it is, and says that it would be faster and cheaper for that committee to do the review into interference allegations than a public inquiry. He also doesn’t believe an NSICOP member leaked an unredacted report to Global news considering how strict the security is. I previously wrote a piece about the legislation empowering NSICOP and how it compares to other Westminster parliaments’ own parliamentary national security committees, and they too face redactions from their political executives—NSICOP is not out of line in that regard, not to mention that we don’t have secure places for a secret-cleared parliamentary committee to meet on Parliament Hill (which should be part of the renovations to Centre Block).

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1634335994525757440

Ukraine Dispatch:

An aide to president Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that the decision to stick out the battle in Bakhmut has to do with the ability to pin down and degrade Russia’s best forces ahead of the planned spring Ukrainian counter-offensive. Meanwhile, most of the power in Kyiv has been restored after Thursday’s missile barrage from Russia.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1634182540868108290

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1634245229627809792

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Roundup: Derailing the committee with sexism

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The big happenings of the day on the foreign interference file were at the Procedure and House Affairs Committee when ministers Dominic LeBlanc and Mélanie Joly testified. We found out that thus far, one diplomatic visa has been rejected by Canada because of interference allegations, and we also got the very reasonable explanation from Joly that we haven’t been expelling diplomats because that invites tit-for-tat from the Chinese government (and they are not afraid to take hostages), and we need our eyes and ears on the ground in that country. We also learned from Joly’s Great China director at Global Affairs that “diplomatic representations” were made about their alleged boats around helping to defeat Conservative candidates in the last election.

What made the news, however, was that Conservative MP Michael Cooper was hostile and belittling toward Joly in a clearly misogynistic manner, made worse by the fact that he later put out a statement that refused to apologise for it, but insisted he wanted action and not a “symbolic stare down.” Erm, you guys keep bringing up Harper’s symbolic stare down of allegedly telling Putin to get out of Ukraine in 2014 and calling that courageous, so I’m not sure why Joly’s confrontation with her Chinese counterpart is considered any lesser. Oh, wait—we know why.

In other news on the interference file, here’s an interview with former CSIS director Ward Elcock on recent developments, and there are a couple of takeaways—that this is old news, and that we’ve known about Chinese interference for years; that there is no reason to believe that the PM did get these briefing notes (and it has been noted by other experts that Canada does not have a system of pushing intelligence upward, and yet this is what so much of Global’s reporting in hinging on); and that it is highly unlikely these leaks are coming from CSIS, but someone who has access to their documents (and the good money is on someone within the RCMP).

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1633863409211961346

As well, NSIRA did announce that they too are undertaking their own investigation of the allegations and what CSIS has been doing around it, while not looking to duplicate the work that NSICOP is doing.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1633808644935409666

Ukraine Dispatch:

Yesterday’s widespread Russian attack saw more than 80 missiles, plus more drones, hitting cities across the country, killing six people and cutting the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant off of the power gird for eleven hours.

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1633720689541652483

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Roundup: A leaked NSICOP report?

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Another day, another story on foreign interference, this time from Global. It was largely a rehash of material released earlier, but hidden inside was mention of seeing an unredacted report from NSICOP, which raises more questions about who is leaking this material (and to what end). Justin Trudeau continues to be evasive and not give any answers to fairly clear and specific questions about what he was told and when, which is not something you should need the special rapporteur for, and which shouldn’t be a matter that requires the blanket of national security secrecy, but the barrage of pabulum about the importance of national security oversight bodies is not exactly helping his case, or making it look like he has everything under control.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1633509940064133130

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1633509943625105411

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1633472781428948998

NSICOP did announce that they will look into the allegations of foreign interference, but the fact that one of their unredacted reports was leaked to the media is going to undermine trust in that process by security officials in this country, who were dubious about the process from the start, and who will find it even harder to trust now. That’s not good for the ongoing ability to have parliamentarians play a role in the oversight of those bodies, which is necessary in a democracy.

In the meantime, there’s more that the government could get started on right away when it comes to combatting foreign interference, and Jessica Davis has a good thread about those actions here.

https://twitter.com/JessMarinDavis/status/1633488015573041153

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russians fired a massive missile barrage across Ukraine early this morning, with more critical infrastructure being targeted. The Wagner Group is claiming that they have made advances into Bakhmut, but it’s still too early to tell the veracity or what it means in the bigger picture. Here’s a look at Canadian soldiers training Ukrainians on how to operate the Leopard 2 tanks we’ve sent them.

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Roundup: The tone of the interference debate gets worse

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Because we are in an era of bad faith and lowest-common-denominator shitposting, Pierre Poilievre called a press conference yesterday to assert that Justin Trudeau was working in China’s interests against Canada—no doubt catnip to the conspiracy theorists whom he has been trying to attract to his banner, who carry signs about “treason” and who carry nooses to rallies. Even one-time sensible moderate Michael Chong has gone on television to be “just asking questions” about Trudeau’s loyalty to Canada, which is frankly beyond the pale. (Poilievre also said some absolute nonsense about LNG in Canada and his steadfast belief that there would have been a market for it if not for red tape—never mind that proponents could find buyers and couldn’t make a business case to proceed with projects that were fully permitted).

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1633197743131750400

Trudeau later responded that Poilievre’s was eroding faith in democracy with this kind of rhetoric, but that’s kind of the point with this brand of populists. They are trying to erode faith in institutions so that they can insert themselves as the solution to the problems of democracy, without needing to worry about things like minority rights. Not that Trudeau has helped, with his back-patting and platitudes, which doesn’t push back against this kind of threat. (Some good analysis here).

In the meantime, we wait for the announcement of the special rapporteur, but if the goal is to have opposition sign-off, that could be difficult. The NDP say they are cautiously optimistic, but the Bloc want someone who has pre-determined that there needs to be an inquiry, while the Conservatives are likely to engage in bad faith regardless of what happens, so the ability for there to be consensus on a name is not a hope I am holding out for. But seriously—everybody howling for a public inquiry doesn’t seem to realise that NSICOP is likely more independent, because a public inquiry would be appointed by Cabinet, with terms of reference set by Cabinet, and would report to Cabinet. The government is trying to create some distance from themselves with this rapporteur, but nobody wants to hear the actual process or procedure around the demands they’re making.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1633129536358346755

Ukraine Dispatch:

Kyiv is disavowing a group that has been making raids over the border in Russia, while other small groups within Russia are also conducting sabotage operations in opposition to Putin. Ukrainian officials have identified the soldier in a video that was executed by Russians, in violation of the Geneva Conventions.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1633042812605280256

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Roundup: Planning to appoint a special rapporteur

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After two weeks of pretty much flailing on the subject of allegations of Chinese influence on the last two elections, Justin Trudeau held a late-day press conference yesterday to declare that he was going to appoint a special rapporteur to deal with these allegations, who would take a look at the situation and determine if a public inquiry or commission was necessary to look into the matter, and if so, to determine what the terms of reference should be for it.

On top of that, Trudeau also:

  • Asked both NSICOP and NSIRA to conduct their own investigations into the allegations;
  • Launched formal public consultations on a foreign agent registry (with the caution that we have to be careful about how to go about registering people from certain nationalities given the history of this country);
  • Established a new National Counter Foreign Intelligence Coordinator within the department of Public Safety;
  • Called for a plan to address outstanding recommendations from NSICOP and the Rosenberg Report within 30 days;
  • Pledged $5.5 million for civil society groups to counter disinformation.

It was a lot, and there are a few things worth noting in there. The recognition that they have dragged their feet on past NSICOP recommendations is significant, because NSICOP had previously found the federal government slow to react in the 2019 election. That this current crisis is kicking their asses into finally acting is a good thing, all things considered.

The Conservatives are already outraged saying that this is too secretive, and the NSICOP is a “trap” for their members—which is, of course, bad-faith bullshit, because if they were being unduly silenced or felt that official redactions to the reports were unfair, then they would resign in protest, which no member of NSICOP has ever done. The NDP were saying this was a “baby step” in the right direction but still want a public inquiry (but remember, there is no problem in this country for which the NDP does not demand an independent public inquiry). They may yet get one. Trudeau said he would consult with opposition leaders on who would be the special rapporteur, so he can at least launder any accountability for the appointment through them (not always a good thing, guys!), and we’ll see how that goes in the next few weeks. Nevertheless, it’s a bit surprising that it took Trudeau two full weeks to get to this point, and it shouldn’t have, but once again, he and this government can’t communicate their way out of a wet paper bag, and this has once again left them looking weak, and incapable of dealing with the issue.

Meanwhile, the Star has more reminders from the Chinese diasporic communities that they have been sounding the alarm for nearly twenty years and have been consistently ignored.

Ukraine Dispatch:

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says his advisors were unanimous in their agreement to press the fight at Bakhmut and not retreat. American analysts are saying that even if Bakhmut were to fall, it wouldn’t change the tide of the war in any appreciable way. Meanwhile, photos have shown that the town of Marinka, which used to be home to 10,000 people, has been completely razed to the ground by Russian forces. A new top anti-corruption investigator was also appointed on Monday, as part of the ongoing efforts to clean up the system for future EU membership.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1632819587405295616

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Roundup: A caution around more nomination “safeguards”

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There has been some renewed interest in party nominations after the accusations of shenanigans in Liberal MP Han Dong’s nomination, and unsurprisingly, we get a rather tepid piece asking if we need more safeguards. There are a few things that this ignores, part of which is the history. MPs actively wanted to keep Elections Canada out of policing nominations (though they now have a bigger role in policing the funding of said contests). This is one of the reasons why the decision was made to have party leaders sign off on nominations forms—to keep Elections Canada out of the process. (That later turned into a problem of leaders using this power to blackmail members into staying in line, which was not something contemplated at the time, and yes, I did study the Hansards of those debates as part of research for my book).

The other thing that the piece missed is how parties have been monkeying with nomination processes to get their favoured candidates installed. The Samara Centre for Democracy has a great report on this (though they were a little too credulous at the NDP’s claims they always run open nominations when they don’t), and my particular caution is that more “safeguards” for nominations may very well mean a greater ability for the party or the leader’s office to monkey around or put their thumbs on the scale. Already we are in a veritable crisis where open nominations are fast disappearing behind the curtain of protected nominations for incumbents and invoking “electoral urgency” rules unnecessarily that allow the leader to just directly appoint candidates. Parties used to be robust enough to fight this kind of interference, but they are losing that ability, particularly in the Liberals, who rewrote their party constitution to centralize even more power in the leader’s office and disempower the grassroots after Trudeau became prime minister.

Should there be more safeguards? Probably. But that means returning the power to the grassroots riding associations so that they can run proper, open and transparent contests, rather than what has been happening.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Ukrainian forces say that in spite of Russian claims, Bakhmut is not surrounded, and the fighting continues. In fact, the head of the Wagner Group mercenaries has said that their position is at risk if they can’t get more ammunition. The Ukrainains are, however, trying to evacuate the remaining civilian population, who are still there for many different reasons.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1632023670087352321

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1632403808016908288

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Roundup: Listening to diasporic communities

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Because we’re still talking about the allegations of foreign interference in elections, journalists are now officially in the “badger and hector” stage of demanding the government call some kind of independent inquiry, which Trudeau refuses to do (for good enough reasons), and he’s getting a bit exasperated and even snappish in his replies to the same questions, over, and over, and over, and over again. (Oh, the memories of journalists demanding he invoke the Emergencies Act every single day at the start of the pandemic). More to the point, Trudeau did make a point of saying that it’s often diasporic communities, and the parliamentarians who come from them, that are at greatest risk of this foreign interference, and there has been a fairly tremendous silence in the media from those voices. It’s not just Chinese influence we need to be on guard for, but Hindu nationalism is also becoming a worrying force within Canada. Nevertheless, Power & Politics did get one activist on the air yesterday, and actually did some critical self-reflection and media accountability along the way, which is virtually unheard of, so please do check out that interview.

Meanwhile, Morris Rosenberg is now doing interviews about his report, and he talked about the recommendation to lower the threshold for making public these attempts at interference. Also, a reminder that we can’t assume that the leaks being fed to media are from CSIS—merely someone who has access to their reports.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1631670700338446336

Meanwhile, there is a very good point being made that while NSICOP should be the venue by which these issues are being discussed, the government has not exactly acted on their recommendations in the past, and that remains a problem.

https://twitter.com/Dennismolin11/status/1631779724841066506

Ukraine Dispatch:

Russian Forces claim that they have nearly encircled Bakhmut, and are blasting bridges out to the west, but Ukrainian forces have not given up their positions just yet. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reiterated his call with American and European officials that Russia needs to face war crimes prosecutions for is actions during its invasion of Ukraine. On a related note, a village outside of Kyiv is still digging up bodies from their brief Russian occupation.

Good reads:

  • Justin Trudeau says an Indigenous Commissioner of the RCMP is an “excellent idea,” and no. It’s the same toxic structure and culture and would change nothing.
  • Mélanie Joly and her Chinese counterpart had a testy exchange at the G20 meeting in New Delhi over the allegations of Chinese interference in elections.
  • The government plans to finally—finally!—start debate on their digital privacy bill after letting it languish on the Order Paper for the past nine months.
  • An autopilot software glitch has been identified as the cause of a military helicopter crash in 2020, and a fix has not yet been implemented across the fleet.
  • The Senate Speaker and two other senators are facing criticism for meeting with the Speaker of Israel’s parliament, who is a far-right figure in that country.
  • Surprising nobody, Google’s CEO is not accepting the summons to appear at the Commons’ heritage committee, but will send his country manages instead.
  • The Northwest Territories is calling out Alberta for not notifying them of an oil sands tailings pond spill into their shared waterway.
  • That BC company is walking back some of their claims about getting a licence to produce and sell cocaine commercially.
  • Stephanie Carvin gives a primer on what we’re talking about when we talk about intelligence (and why it’s not evidence, since people have difficulty with that).
  • Jessica Davis gives an explainer on just what constitutes foreign interference, and lists three recent examples of what does and doesn’t qualify.
  • Shannon Proudfoot imagines Pierre Poilievre through the lens of the Mr. Men books, and how he went from Mr. Mouth to Mr. Nothing to See Here.
  • Chris Selley points out that as of yet, nobody has bothered to challenge Quebec’s blatantly unconstitutional law to opt out of the Oath to the King.
  • My Xtra column wonders why the government hasn’t appointed a special envoy for LGBTQ+ issues, as many of our contemporaries have.
  • My weekend column points out that we shouldn’t need a public inquiry into election interference if MPs would be grown-ups and use NSICOP like it is intended.

Odds and ends:

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Roundup: More reminders about intelligence vs evidence

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It was another day of testimony by senior national security officials at the Procedure and House Affairs Committee, and much of it went the same as it did on Wednesday—very little was confirmed or denied, but there is no evidence to suggest the integrity of the elections were compromised. We also got more of the same warnings—intelligence is not evidence, and some of it may not be true, so stop being so credulous about it. (Okay, that last part was just me. But seriously). The Commissioner of Elections did say that there were some ongoing investigations into complaints of foreign meddling, including new ones opened with the more recent revelations,

After the testimony, the committee voted 6-5 to call on the government to call a public inquiry, with the Liberals all voting against (but they don’t control this particular committee because it’s a minority parliament). The government is under no obligation to call one, and the same people who have been testifying have repeatedly said it won’t provide the answers they’re looking for, and NSICOP is the best venue for the answers MPs want, but that’s faced its own challenges in recent years. That said, even the former Conservative campaign director says that an inquiry isn’t the best way to get the answers they’re looking for, so maybe they’ll listen to him. Maybe? The head of CSIS is saying that a foreign agent registry would be helpful, and the government has already been consulting on how best to create and implement one.

Meanwhile, here is a really interesting thread about those allegations, and has a lot of Chinese-community-specific context that much of the reporting has been absent with.

https://twitter.com/karenwenlin/status/1630413714435330048

Ukraine Dispatch:

A Russian missile struck an apartment building in Zaporizhzhia, killing three people and wounding six others. Russia, meanwhile, is accusing Ukraine of launching an attack on their soil, which Ukraine denies (in part because there would be no strategic purpose in doing so).

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/status/1631165700747165697

https://twitter.com/canadianforces/status/1631391509177049118

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1631542420776300544

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Roundup: Few answers at committee

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The Procedure and House Affairs committee met yesterday for an emergency meeting around these recent allegations of Chinese interference in the last election, and it wasn’t the most illuminating exercise—not just because MPs constant attempts at point-scoring, but because most of the national security agencies couldn’t answer very many questions, because answering questions can jeopardise sources or investigations. And we got the same cautions that virtually every media outlet is ignoring, which is that intelligence is not evidence, and much of it is out of context or incomplete, which is why everything needs to be taken with a grain of salt and not repeated credulously the way absolutely everyone is.

We did learn a couple of things. The first is that the RCMP were the ones who opted not to proceed with any investigations or charges around interference when presented with information about it. The second is that the prime minister is being briefed constantly about these kinds of threats, and that the problem is getting worse instead of better.

And then there were all of the calls for a national public inquiry, which the NDP insisted they were going to try and look tough in demanding. Not to be outdone, Poilievre not only demanded an inquiry, but said that all recognised party leaders had to have a say in who would chair it, otherwise it would just be another “Liberal crony” (which was again used as a smear against Morris Rosenberg). The prime minister’s national security advisor said that a public inquiry wouldn’t get many more answers because of the nature of the secret information, and all of that would still be kept out of the public eye, which is a good point. Incidentally, the opposition parties cannot demand a public inquiry—it doesn’t work like that. They can’t force a vote in the House of Commons, or anything like that, so this is once again, mostly just performance.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Despite the warnings that the Ukrainians may not be able to hold Bakhmut for much longer, they nevertheless held positions for another day, while Russian forces are also gearing up for a renewed offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region.

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Roundup: A smear to precede the report

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The day began with the Globe and Mail dropping another “big scoop” of CSIS uncovering that China tried to somehow influence the prime minister by donating to the Pierre Elliott Trudeau Foundation…after Trudeau had already stepped away from its board because he was Liberal leader. And more to the point, this story is old—2016 old—with the new CSIS headline, and further down was a smear at Morris Rosenberg, who used to head the Foundation, whom the Privy Council Office chose to write the report coming out on attempts at interference in the last election. And it was absolutely a smear, and the Globe was simply parroting a Conservative attack. It’s also worth noting that Stephen Harper had appointed Rosenberg to be the deputy minister of foreign affairs, so these attacks are all the more unseemly. (For more on these leaks, check these threads from Jessica Davis and Stephanie Carvin, which provide a lot of context to these stories and why they’re not treating intelligence properly.

https://twitter.com/StephanieCarvin/status/1630578153277071366

Much later in the day, Rosenberg’s report was released, and in it, he relayed that the task force monitoring the election found that while there were attempts at influence, including the misinformation around Conservative incumbent Kenny Chiu, but nothing rose to the level of actual concern in the panel’s estimation. Rosenberg makes sixteen recommendations, some of them around increasing transparency including providing unclassified briefings, and extending some monitoring to the pre-writ period (which can be tricky because so-called “fixed” election dates are rarely that, nor should they be). It’s also worth noting that there were also concerns raised about domestic disinformation (much of it around COVID) and rising threats of anti-government violence, which the task force made note of and could require adjustments to the protocols in order to better deal with it.

Ukraine Dispatch:

Things in Bakhumut are getting bad, as Russians are destroying anything that can be used for cover or defensive positions, and president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has admitted that they may have no choice but to pull back so as not to simply cost lives for the sake of it. Ukrainian aircraft did launch three strikes on areas of concentration of Russian forces. Meanwhile, Russian television stations and radio were hacked as a string of drone attacks hit near St. Petersburg. (Ukraine has not claimed responsibility for the incident).

https://twitter.com/imurniece/status/1630240144145129472

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1630685523978203136

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