Roundup: Hoping for a Canada Day with little disruption

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We’re on day one-hundred-and-twenty-eight of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and it looks like shelling by Ukrainian forces have driven Russian troops from Snake Island, a strategic location in the south near Odesa (and where those border agents famously told the Russian warship to fuck itself). This could mean that the threats against Odesa are receding. Meanwhile, the fighting continues around Lysychansk, where the Russians are facing a tough road to try and encircle the city as they can’t cross the river without being exposed to the Ukrainian forces on the high ground.

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1542426545490460672

Closer to home, it’s Canada Day, but the festivities are taking place off the Hill in Lebreton Flats, because a third of the lawn in front of the Centre Block is now a giant pit while they dig new underground infrastructure for the renovated building. As well, the Snowbirds have been forced to cancel their performance because of a serious maintenance issue with their fleet. The far-right extremists, grifters, conspiracy theorists and grievance tourists have already started to descent on downtown Ottawa and Parliament Hill, so we’ll see if things are as disruptive as they were during the occupation, but thus far, police are taking no chances and we’ve already seen arrests and vehicles being towed, so we’re off to a better start than we were in January. Regardless, I hope you enjoy your Canada Day as much as possible.

Programming Note: I’m taking the long weekend off to recuperate, so I’ll see you Monday or Tuesday, depending on how I feel (and how much news there is over the weekend).

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Roundup: Allegations of interference still not adding up

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It’s day one-hundred-and-twenty-seven of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and a major prisoner swap took place, securing the release of 144 Ukrainian soldiers, including 95 of the defenders of Mariupol. The majority of those prisoners swapped were badly wounded. It sounds like an equal number of Russian fighters, as well as so-called Donetsk separatists, were released as part of the swap.

https://twitter.com/smsaideman/status/1542174212378529794

Closer to home, we got another denial from Bill Blair about any interference in the Nova Scotia mass-shooting investigation, and he speaks reasonably authoritatively enough about knowing where the line is given his previous life as a police chief. And there is not a lot of things adding up around these allegations of interference, particularly that the forthcoming order-in-council around banning assault-style rifles, which they would have needed to work on for weeks or months, so it was pretty much baked-in by that point if it was announced days later, and they would have been in consultation with the RCMP over it. The notion that releasing the information could have jeopardized the investigation has been debunked, especially given that the shooter’s spouse could tell them all that information. To add to that, the PMO had already been given the information on the guns thanks to the National Security Advisor, so again, there wouldn’t have been any need for interference if that’s what you’re calling it. Now, we all know that the very first question reporters would have asked when the announcement on the OiC came down was whether the guns used in this shooting would be covered, so again, this seems like fairly basic disclosure that they knew was coming. And if anyone is clutching their pearls over the Liberals politicizing a mass shooting—which is actually appropriate—then they haven’t watched Question Period, where tragedies are politicised every single day. Also, not to be forgotten, the Justice Department isn’t holding onto documents on behalf of the government—they’re acting as the lawyers for the RCMP in this situation, so this likely has to do with the advice they are receiving from their clients. Again, the allegations that this is some kind of cover-up are not adding up.

But these issues aside, let’s be clear—the RCMP in Nova Scotia had just shit the bed. Massively. They didn’t disclose information that could have saved lives, they lied to the media, and they have been increasingly caught out about it, and a lot of this sounds like deflection, particularly because they are butthurt that Commissioner Lucki chewed them out about it. Like I said, stuff isn’t adding up about the supposed “interference,” but I would again remind you that we should not be credulously believing everything the RCMP are saying, particularly as they are in the middle of justifying and deflecting around what happened, and the fact that they were trying to keep from disclosing information unnecessarily.

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Roundup: On oaths to the Queen

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We’re in day one-hundred-and-twenty-six of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and much of the attention has been on the reverberations of the attack on the shopping centre in Kremenchuk, where the death toll is up to 18, with more than 20 missing, and many more wounded. French president Emmanuel Macron denounced the attack, and said that because of it, Russia “cannot and should not win” the war (but then again, Macron’s attempts to get Ukraine to give territorial concessions to end the conflict is not exactly reflecting well on him either). As well, CBC interviews a Ukrainian marine who survived the battle of Mariupol with severe injuries before spending two weeks as a Russian prisoner of war before he was able to be sent back to Ukraine for treatment.

https://twitter.com/MFA_Ukraine/status/1541839370747011072

Meanwhile, Turkey has dropped their objections to Finland and Sweden joining NATO, which means that their membership can move ahead. This while NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg is talking about an eight-fold increase in Western troops being placed at an increased state of readiness, and more troops headed to the Baltic states, to make Russia very aware that they really, really shouldn’t cross their borders.

https://twitter.com/AnnLinde/status/1541877388937728005

https://twitter.com/ChristinsQueens/status/1541845991225278474

Closer to home, I spent way too much time yesterday being angry at a garbage piece of Canadian Press wire copy that was bad PR masquerading as a news story. I mean, we’re not even a week into Parliament’s summer recess, and this is what CP is using as void fill for the news hole? The piece claims that 56 percent of Canadians oppose the oath of allegiance to the Queen, then cites a “poll,” but it wasn’t actually a poll, it was online panels that are not actually random samples, but that fact isn’t mentioned until six paragraphs down. The only person quoted in the piece is the guy who runs the think tank who commissioned the panels, and he says that most Canadians are unaware that newcomers have to swear an oath to be “faithful to the Royal Family,” which is a wilful distortion of the truth. The oath is to the Queen and her “heirs and successors,” because heredity is kind of the point of monarchy. It’s not the whole Royal Family. Nobody is swearing fealty to Prince Andrew, or even Princess Anne for that matter. And for a think tank that claims to be devoted to increasing Canadians’ knowledge of their country, that kind of distortion is malpractice at best, but I suspect it’s more about trying to build a case that the monarchy is not a unifying force, particularly for immigrants. As for the CP journalist, this was simply retyping a press release with no added context. There were no basic civics in there about how we’re a constitutional monarchy, that the Queen of Canada is different from the Queen of the UK, or that the oath to the Queen is not to her natural person, but to the Crown as the central organizing principle of our constitution (which is why we would need to rewrite the entire thing if we ever were insane enough to ditch the monarchy—not that we would ever get the unanimous agreement of the provinces to do so). It’s really disappointing that CP has descended to this kind of stenography when they used to be one of the most enviable bureaux on the Hill.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1541409039330021380

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Roundup: Standing for the Emergencies Act inquiry

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It’s now day one-hundred-and-twenty-five of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Russian long-range bombers struck a shopping mall in Kremenchuk in central Ukraine that had over a thousand people inside, leaving 13 dead and over 40 injured. Further east, Russians are now advancing on Lysychansk, but because it is higher up the river banks, it is a more defensible position for Ukrainian forces, and that could tie up Russian forces for months.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1541528786474356737

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with G7 leaders by video, and asked for more modern air defences, as well as even more sanctions as the ones that are in place are still not having enough of an effect. Zelenskyy also asked for assistance in unblocking Ukrainian ports so that they can get grain ships in, but this will mean de-mining work that could take weeks or months. Russia, meanwhile, looks set to default on its foreign debt for the first time since the Bolshevik revolution, and here is an explainer of what that could mean.

Closer to home, Justice Paul Rouleau, heading up the public inquiry into the invocation of the Emergencies Act, has released the list of who he has granted standing to hear from, and lo, the Conservative Party is not on it. Citing precedents from previous inquiries like Gomery, Rouleau has basically concluded that the Conservatives had nothing substantive to add, other than to whinge that the Liberals were mean to them about their support for the occupation, and he’s not interested in partisan point-scoring.

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Roundup: Papering over party divisions

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It’s day one-hundred-and-twenty-four of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Severodonestk has fallen, mostly pounded into rubble the way that Mariupol was. Up next for Russian forces is across the river, to the city of Lysychansk, where they are now trying to once again encircle Ukrainian forces, while more civilians try to evacuate the area. Emboldened, Russians have also fired missiles again at Kyiv, killing at least one person. This is likely seen as a warning as NATO leaders are gathering early this week to reaffirm support for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1541103194184601601

Closer to home, all does not sound well in the Conservative caucus. Last week, in her blog post announcing she wouldn’t be running to lead the UCP, Michelle Rempel Garner noted that:

…in both parties there have also been squabbles that have erupted in the pages of national media, public meltdowns, nearly missed physical fights, coups, smear jobs, leaked recordings and confidential emails, lack of consensus on critical issues, caucus turfings, people harassed to the point where they resign roles, and hours long meetings where members have been subjected to hours of public castigation. There have been heated exchanges to get basic concerns addressed, unjustified insularity in decision making, shunnings, exclusionary cliques and more.

So of course, over the weekend, Candice Bergen was asked about this, and while she refused to say anything about it to the Star, she denied this was the case to CTV, seeming to imply that Rempel Garner is either making it up, or is “experiencing things differently.” Bergen is also talking a big game about party unity, and is going to spend Canada Day in Halifax with Peter MacKay, for some inexplicable reason, as though this makes a point about party unity. (Remember, MacKay was never really a Red Tory, given that he voted in lockstep with Stephen Harper on everything, and couldn’t vote for socially progressive issues when other former Red Tories would). Bergen is also denying that she has any safety concerns, and seems to pin blame for the level of harassment that MPs are facing onto Justin Trudeau because he made people get vaccinated, and called out far-right extremists for what they are.

Also over the weekend, former Conservative Senate den mother leader Marjorie LeBreton emerged to voice her concerns about the direction the party is heading in, particularly around their support for the occupation, which erodes their credibility as a law-and-order party. She’s so incensed about Poilievre’s support for the occupation that she resigned from her position as a member of his riding association over it, and worries that the party may be “fracturing beyond repair.” None of this is painting a promising picture of a party that Bergen is insisting nothing is wrong in, but perhaps she is not the most credible source for what his happening behind closed doors, because it’s not in her interest to tell the truth about it.

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Roundup: Reverberations north of the border

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We’re now in day one-hundred-and-twenty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukriane, and it looks like the battle for Severodonestk is ending as Ukrainian forces are withdrawing before they are completely encircled. That means Russians are now advancing on its twin city of Lysychansk, across the river, which will secure hold on the Luhansk province. More heavy American weaponry is arriving, but we’ll see if it’s enough to change the balance.

Closer to home, there was a lot of reaction in Canada to the US Supreme Court overturning the Roe v Wade decision, which essentially re-criminalises abortions in many states. Conservative leadership candidate Leslyn Lewis was quick to jump on it to encourage an “adult conversation” about it in Canada, which apparently involves abortion doctors being mind-readers and taking away these rights from women in other countries. (Other Conservative leadership candidates, including Pierre Poilievre, have reiterated that they are pro-choice). There are also a bunch of voices, some of whom are concern trolling, others of whom are genuinely clueless, who point out that Justin Trudeau hasn’t done anything to enshrine abortion rights in the constitution, which is a) dumb, and b) counter-productive as it actually plays into the hands of anti-abortionists who would use the opportunity to introduce limits. Yes, Trudeau has promised more about access, and he has tasked both ministers Duclos and Ien with consultations on adding regulations to the Canada Health Act around abortion access, but that’s not something that can happen overnight, as there is a process for regulation, and as we have long established, putting strings on healthcare funding for provinces is touchy business. But provinces are where the fight is in Canada, because they control access.

https://twitter.com/EmmMacfarlane/status/1540380879519875073

There was also a number of news programmes yesterday which ran interviews with anti-abortionists in a completely uncritical fashion, allowing them to frame the conversation in their usual bullshit terms, and getting only the most minor pushback to some of their claims of popular support for their cause. These kinds of uncritical interviews are key to how misinformation and disinformation is spread through the media, because they have no capacity to do anything other than both-sides the issue, which again, allows misinformation and disinformation to spread because it isn’t challenged. We are fully in the age of disinformation, and our media outlets have learned absolutely nothing about how to deal with it, and yesterday was case in point about that.

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Roundup: Home for the summer

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It is day one-hundred-and-twenty-one of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and still no news out of Severodonetsk, but there is additional bombardment of the area including air strikes. The big news, however, was that the EU has granted the request to make Ukraine a candidate for membership—itself a years-long process that will require great reforms, most especially Ukraine cracking down on its problem of government corruption—but more than anything, this is a symbolic victory. It signals that Ukraine is moving more to the west, and away from Russia, and that further undermines Putin’s aims.

Closer to home, both the House of Commons and the Senate have risen for the summer, the latter being a problem because it was supposed to sit next week and they rammed through a bunch of legislation with little or no debate or scrutiny in order to make it happen. Below is a speech by Senator Paula Simons about one of those bills being expedited, and why that’s a problem (and you’d better believe I have an angry column about this coming out over the weekend).

Meanwhile, Aaron Wherry had an interview with the Commons’ Speaker, Anthony Rota, and frankly I wonder if we’re living in the same reality. Rota seems to think that his method of gentle chiding of MPs gets results, and that they change their behaviours when he hints that he knows who’s being disruptive (but won’t actually name and shame them). Except he doesn’t get results, and they continue to openly flout the rules, because they know that he’ll belatedly make some gentle comment that won’t actually do anything to enforce the rules that they broke, so it keeps happening again and again. But he thinks this is a good way, because things aren’t as bad as they were in the pre-2015 days before the Liberals largely stopped applauding and being as vociferous in their heckles. He’s not doing his job, plain and simple.

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QP: Blair on repeat, into the summer break

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It was the final QP of the sitting, and everyone remains exhausted and cranky. The prime minister was still in Rwanda, while his deputy was present in person. Luc Berthold led off, and he accused the government of incompetence before railing about the passport issue. Karina Gould recited that the government implemented a new strategy at the Quebec offices to ensure there is proper triage of cases. Berthold was incredulous about this, before he pivoted to the inflation number, and demanded the government reduce fuel taxes. Chrystia Freeland listed the measures the government was taking. Berthold switched topics again, and after listing ministerial failures, he accused the government of interfering in an RCMP investigation, and accused the government of not believing an RCMP officer (even if they deserve no benefit of the doubt). Bill Blair asserted that there as no interference, but he doesn’t question the word of any police officer. Stephen Ellis took over in English to make the same accusation, being credulous about the content of those officer’s notes, and Blair repeated his denial and stated there was an independent inquiry under the way. Ellis demanded an investigation into the matter, and Blair repeated his response.

Alain Therrien led for the Bloc, and demanded passport offices be opened seven days a week with extended hours until the situation could be cleared, and Karina Gould reiterated that the station in Montreal was unacceptable, which is why they have managers on the line, and that the offices would be open to midnight, and would be open Friday and Saturday (recognising that Friday is a holiday in Quebec). Therrien took a swipe, saying that they should call in the army, but Gould repeated her points.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, and he accused the government of waiting for inflation to go away, and Ahmed Hussen picked up on the points about housing to tout government programmes like the housing accelerator fund to “create systemic change” to build more supply. Singh repeated his accusations in French, and got the same response. 

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Roundup: Inviting anti-vaxx organisers onto the Hill

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It’s day one-hundred-and-twenty of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and no news out of Severodonetsk is presumed to be good news. That said, Russian forces have captured three other villages in the region, near the city of Lysychansk, which is across the river from Severokonetsk, so there is still movement in the region. There is optimism in the country, however, that their bid to join the EU will pass to the next stage during a summit this week. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, meanwhile, addressed University of Toronto students, and called on them to pressure governments to provide more aid to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/DMokryk/status/1539548152432402432

Closer to home, a group of Conservative MPs, including leadership candidate Leslyn Lewis, hosted a trio of anti-vaxxer extremists and occupation organisers ahead of their planned Canada Day protests, and they did it within one of the Parliamentary office buildings just off of the Hill. Included in the group were a former Reservist being charged for a video promoting the occupation while in uniform, a former Trump advisor, and a former spokesperson for the occupation. And in case it’s not clear, they’re no longer talking about vaccine mandates, which have pretty much ended everywhere, but about regime change, and Conservatives are condoning it, if not outright encouraging it by saying “you have allies.” That’s not good. It’s especially not good when they’re talking about civil war in their discourse. Oh, and Candice Bergen’s office was aware this was going on, and did nothing to shut it down. It’s just unbelievable how clueless they are around this issue, when there is real potential for these violent online narratives to manifest into a real-world attack.

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QP: Too tired to land a punch

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While the prime minister was landing in Rwanda for the Commonwealth Heads of Government meeting, his deputy was supposed to appear virtually, but didn’t in the end. Every other leader was present, one of them with a special guest. Candice Bergen led off, script on her mini-lectern, and she read the accusations that the PMO interfered in the investigation of the Nova Scotia mass shooting, and demanded an independent investigation into the matter. Bill Blair recited that there was no interference and no pressure, and pointed to the statement of the RCMP to corroborate this. Bergen insisted the government has a pattern of interference, and repeated her demand, and Blair repeated his own denial under the banner that this was the truth. Bergen pivoted to inflation, and demanded tax cuts, saying the government would rather let people suffer than accept their ideas. Jonathan Wilkinson reminded her that they have a package of affordability measures, and that they are working with global partners to stabilise the global oil supply. Luc Berthold took over in French to lament inflation and demanded tax cuts, and Rachel Bendayan denied that the Conservatives’ proposals would lower the cost of living, and that the government won at the Supreme Court to win about carbon prices, and that the Liberals have a plan. Berthold then raised the issue of passport lineups, and Karina Gould assured him that they have strategies to get those who need their passports expeditiously.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he too raised the passport lines with a dose of sarcasm about the prime minister’s international travel, and Gould reiterated that the situation in Montreal is unacceptable but different from elsewhere in the country, and that they have management teams to assist the situation. Blanchet gave it a second go and got the same response. 

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, his daughter on his arm, and he decried high inflation, demanding action for families. This gave Gould an opening to talk about child care. Singh repeated the question in French, and Gould repeated her points about child care.

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