Tag Archives: Bank of Canada

Roundup: No backbench rebellion…for now

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As far as backbench revolts go, this one was a bit of a damp squib, or to put it another way, Wells’ First Rule has once again borne out in practice—For any given situation, Canadian politics will tend toward the least exciting possible outcome. Purportedly, Trudeau addressed caucus and got emotional talking about the toll has taken on him, including his children constantly seeing the “Fuck Trudeau” flags and so on, but nevertheless there was a frank airing of grievances from some MPs, though nobody had a copy of that memorandum calling on him to step down that had names attached (oh, the bravery!). In the end, it looks like it was only 24 backbench MPs who had signed onto this (not that anyone could see the names), which is not 40, and makes it easier for them to be dismissed (though still, that number could very well grow). Nevertheless, there was a commitment for everyone to reflect more about what was said, and a few voices have said that they want Trudeau to give some indication by Monday if he plans to stick around or to call it a day (though I can’t imagine that he would want to make any such decision on their timetable).

While the message coming out of caucus was that they have never been stronger or more united, that sounds an awful lot like the “We’ve never been more united” speech just before or after someone crosses the floor. Others, like Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, said that the palace intrigue needs to stop and that the knives need to turn outward rather than inward—a reference that the real enemy is Pierre Poilievre, and not Trudeau, though again, nobody is saying that this matter is done with, particularly given that everyone needs to reflect on what happened.

This having been said, I think it’s fair to question the organizational abilities of those leading this backbench revolt, because a lot of what has come out in public has been pretty shambolic, as is the fact that there seems to be absolutely no plan for the day after if Trudeau did take their message and decide to start planning his exit. I think in part that’s because there has been no heir apparent, or nobody for anyone to rally around as a focal point for who could replace Trudeau, and that may have as much to do with the fact that a good many MPs were political operatives or even staffers who were around during the Chrétien-Martin wars, and remain traumatized by them, and the fact that Trudeau had very consciously focused on rooting out those camps when he took over the party. We’ll see what happens over the next week or two, but just because nothing happened today doesn’t mean that the tide isn’t shifting.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians have captured two villages in the Donetsk region in the east, and are currently storming four more settlements in the Donbas region, but those attacks are currently being repelled. The Americans have now corroborated that as many as 3000 North Korean troops are now in Russia, training for a possible deployment to Ukraine. Here is a look at how fire trucks in Nikopol now have anti-drone jammers mounted on them because Russians have been targeting them.

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QP: Free-wheeling, chaotic, and from an alternate reality

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In the wake of that big caucus meeting where little seemed to happen, the prime minister was present for QP—his proto-PMQ day in fact, while his deputy left for Washington. All of the other leaders were present, and Pierre Poilievre led off in French, and he needled about 24 Liberal backbenchers signing the document, the Bloc supporting them, and demanded an election. Trudeau got up, for much applause from his caucus, the Conservatives got up with what was supposed to be sarcastic applause but just looked like more applause, and after it died down, Trudeau insisted (in English) that they were totally united and they were focused on delivering for Canadians. Poilievre noted that the question was in French, claimed that backbenchers leaking to journalists from the washroom at caucus, and again demanded an election. Trudeau, in French, trotted out his lines about confident governments investing in people and not resorting to austerity. Poilievre, still in French, listed slogans, claimed immigration was “out of control,” and demanded an election. Trudeau noted Poilievre only offers cuts and empty slogans and not investments in people and the green future. Poilievre turned to English to repeat his slogans, his concern trolling over the 24 backbenchers, lied about the privilege issue, and demanded an election. Trudeau recited his line about while the opposition is focused on politics, he is focused on Canadians. Poilievre again mocked the dissident Liberals, and Trudeau hit back with the Conservatives’ hanging out with white nationalists and Poilievre’s lack of a security clearance. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried about the allegations at a particular school in Quebec, and Trudeau noted that’s a provincial issue but they would defend rights and freedoms for all Canadians. Blanchet wondered if Trudeau was saying “forced religious education” and corporal punishment was freedom of expression. Trudeau reiterated that this was a provincial matter.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, declared that he knew the prime minister was distracted, and demanded he take action on food prices. Trudeau noted that they have taken action, whether it is with competition reform or a school food programme, before he took a swipe at the NDP for backing away from the carbon rebates. Singh wondered if Trudeau has even been to a grocery store, and was shouted down before the Speaker intervened. When he started again, he read the same line again (proving it was a scripted applause line to be clipped) before switching to French worry about rents. Trudeau, in English, noted he had recently been to a grocery store with the Speaker in his riding, and then turned to French to praise their housing investments.

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Roundup: Implicated Conservatives and the lack of security clearance

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It was quite the day at the Foreign Interference inquiry, as Justin Trudeau was on the stand and dropped this particular bombshell: “I have the names of a number of parliamentarians, former parliamentarians and-or candidates in the Conservative Party of Canada who are engaged (in) or at high risk of, or for whom there is clear intelligence around foreign interference.” He also indicated that where his own party is concerned, he has been dealing with any accusations internally, which includes ensuring that those implicated are not being given certain committee assignments or so on, which to be perfectly frank, is how one should be dealing with it (though he could have said at some point that he was aware of the report and has been dealing with it internally). The implication in all of this was that Pierre Poilievre, who refuses to get security-cleared, can’t do the same and it’s bewildering as to why.

Poilievre immediately fired back and accused Trudeau of lying under oath (quite something, especially considering that Poilievre is an avowed liar who lies all the time), and demanded that Trudeau release the names, which denies anyone implicated any due process. After all, some of this is intelligence and not evidence, and subjecting someone who was naïve in an interaction with a diplomat to a kangaroo court is hardly fair and could have particularly profound consequences, especially considering the escalating violence toward MPs, and that they will be tarred as “traitors” when in most cases, as the National Security Advisor said last week, many have simply engaged in bad behaviour or are unwitting because they don’t know better, but it hardly escalates to espionage or sabotage.

Part of the subplot around Poilievre’s refusal to get security clearance is the fact that his chief of staff is cleared and receives briefings—but is not considered “need-to-know” on this, because he’s not the party leader, and that’s a pretty big deal. It shouldn’t be up to the chief of staff to deal with implicated MPs, senators, or candidates, or to do something like rescind a nomination as a result of these allegations. In fact, two former CSIS directors even stated on television that they wouldn’t brief a chief of staff if the leader didn’t have clearance because the leader is the principal actor, and needs to be able to act on what the chief of staff tells him, which again, means needing to be briefed.

Another subplot around that security clearance issue was a delineation between someone who is a Privy Councillor, as Poilievre is, and security clearance, which frankly hasn’t been properly articulated before, and created confusion as a result, particularly because there were instances in the past where opposition leaders were sworn into Privy Council before being given classified briefings. This doesn’t, however, change the fact that Poilievre has chosen not to get a clearance, not that he can’t, which is the difference.

Meanwhile, the Beaverton managed to once again hit on the truth of the matter better than any legacy media outlet.

“Getting it would require him to lie slightly less than he does currently.”Bingo.Yet again, the Beaverton can get to the truth better than most legacy outlets can.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-10-16T23:44:40.382Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The latest drone strike by Russia saw 136 drones launched against Kyiv and other cities, and 68 of those were shot down, with 64 others unaccounted for, while at least two struck targets. Russians claimed they took two more villages—one in Donetsk, one in Luhansk—but Ukraine says that those attacks were repelled. Ukraine has asked the International Maritime Organization to send a monitoring mission to the ports in Odesa among increasing Russian attacks on grain storage and port infrastructure, which threatens global food security. A former Canadian soldier currently fighting in Ukraine has been injured, but wants to get back to the fight when he recovers. And we finally have details on President Zelenskyy’s “Victory Plan,” some of which hinges on an “unconditional” NATO invitation.

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Roundup: Unserious about monetary policy

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Amidst party leaders making boneheaded tax promises in the three provincial elections going on right now (no, BC, you can’t forgo taxes on tips without trying to change federal tax authorities), economist Stephen Gordon has decided to revisit Pierre Poilievre’s promise to fire the governor of the Bank of Canada—something he doesn’t have the power to do—and looks at the supposed reasons why. Unsurprisingly, they don’t add up.

In other words, Poilievre is performatively trying to once again blame inflation on someone other than the global supply chain crunch, or the climate-related droughts that impacted food prices (to say nothing of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine), and has been pursuing bullshit attacks as a distraction. Those attacks included trying to bring the Bank under the purview of the Auditor General so that they could order her to do “performance audits” on their decisions during COVID (something she has no expertise in doing), because they are not serious people, and get all of their ideas about macroeconomics from crypto bros on YouTube. It’s really, really depressing that anyone thinks they are remotely qualified to govern.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian shelling killed one person and injured six in the eastern city of Sloviansk. A Russian missile also struck near a major Ukrainian airbase, while Russians fired missiles at two grain vessels on the Black Sea. Russian forces have also entered the outskirts of Toretsk, which is another frontline settlement. Ukrainian forces took credit for the strike on an oil depot in occupied Crimea, which has been fuelling Russia’s war effort, as well as sabotaging a Russian minesweeper in its Black Sea fleet.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1843234630754836742

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Roundup: Bringing in the spouses?

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The fallout from Jagmeet Singh’s confrontation with members of the Asshole Brigade who are harassing people in front of Parliament Hill has taken a couple of strange twists. In his post about the incident, Singh said that “That’s the country that Pierre Poilievre wants,” which of course sent the Conservatives into the usual bit of performative victimhood. Among those was Michael Cooper, who was seen hanging out with some of those members of the Asshole Brigade, and he tweeted out that he didn’t know them, that they approached him at the restaurant he was eating in…but there is video that shows him meeting with them before the restaurant, so perhaps that’s a very judicious use of the truth.

The stranger part was that Anaida Poilievre wrote a long Twitter missive to rebut the accusation and to praise Poilievre’s good character, while taking shots at Singh and Justin Trudeau. There has been a long-held convention in Canadian politics that spouses stay out of things, and they get a semblance of anonymity as a result. The fact that she has been very active in Poilievre’s campaign is a sign that she could be much more active in a future where Poilievre becomes prime minister, and that’s a bit of a problem because we don’t have “First Ladies” in this county like the Americans do, because our “First Lady” is Queen Camila. If she plays an active role, does she then become a target for other parties? Does that open up attacks for their spouses? I worry about that given the coarsening of politics as it is, and the fact that far too many people are already targeting MPs’ homes as part of protests. We don’t need them to become fair game as things continue to race to the bottom.

https://x.com/AnaPoilievre/status/1836225640938508466

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian shelling in Zaporizhzhia killed one woman and injured two others, while another attack targeted energy facilities in the central city of Kropyvnytskyi. Ukrainian drones have struck a Russian military base north of Moscow, causing an “earthquake-sized” blast. President Zelenskyy will be addressing the United Nations Security Council on Tuesday.

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QP: Won’t somebody think about the GDP?

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The first prototype-PMQ day of the fall sitting promised to be a caustic set of exchanges between the PM and the leader of the opposition, and it did not disappoint. Well, it’s always disappointing, but it went about as well as expected, though perhaps not quite as caustic as one might have assumed. Pierre Poilievre led off in French with a swipe at the Bloc for their plans not to topple the government, and listed a bunch of nonsense about what the federal government allegedly did—but it wasn’t really a question for the government. Justin Trudeau listed things they have done that the Conservatives would cut. Poilievre recited some slogans, and wondered again why the Bloc allowed it, which was again not a question for government, and the Speaker said nothing. Trudeau listed things that Poilievre voted against in his “thirst for power.” Poilievre switched to English to make the same swipe, but this time directed to the NDP, and wondered why they weren’t saying they would vote against the government, which again was not a question for government. Trudeau repeated that Poilievre voted against Canadians’ interests because he only cares about himself, and that he was in a bad mood because the economy was performing well. Poilievre recited a litany of slogans, and Trudeau said this was mere performance because he doesn’t care about Canadians and repeated the points about inflation coming down and that Poilievre can’t use his “justinflation” slogan anymore. Poilievre took this as an excuse to list the people using food banks or who are in tent encampments, and Trudeau said this empathy was false because he was using the vulnerable for his own gain.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he lamented the remarks of the special advisory to counter Islamophonia, and wanted the government’s definition of Islamophobia. Trudeau spoke about the rise of it and antisemitism, but did not provide a definition. Blanchet noted this and accused the government of polarising Canadians, and Trudeau pointed out that he is a proud Quebeckers and there are more Liberals from Quebec than in the Bloc, and that they need to combat intolerance. 

Alexandre Boulerice rose for the Bloc, and decried the increasing privatisation of healthcare and demanded the government put a stop to it. Trudeau said that the NDP can’t deliver the goods on progressive policies, as shown by their backing out of their agreement, because they didn’t like it when things got hard. Alistair MacGregor took over in English to worry about grocery prices, and accuse the government of “caving to CEOs.” Trudeau accused them of taking a page from the Conservative playbook in choosing slogans over hard work.

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Roundup: Two percent ahead of schedule

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The big news yesterday was that according to August data, headline inflation returned to the Bank of Canada’s target of 2.0 percent, well ahead of schedule. It’ll bounce around for a while as the economy continues to rebalance, but it’s a sign that the Bank has essentially stuck the soft-landing. And before you repeat the Andrew Scheer line of “People are going to food banks, you call that a soft landing?” the answer is that the alternative was a recession, so yeah, this definitely beats that.

Things are still uneven, and yes, housing costs continue to drive much of the current inflation, and gasoline prices are a big reason why it fell as much as it did in August, so those will bounce around some more. Food is still running a little bit above headline, but nowhere near what it was before because supply chains have evened out, prices have stabilized from supply shocks (driven by climate change and the invasion of Ukraine), but seasonal price changes are also having an impact. (More from Trevor Tombe in this thread).

https://twitter.com/trevortombe/status/1836026950281744434

Meanwhile, I have seen zero discussion about how everything that Pierre Poilievre has claimed was causing inflation—deficit spending, the carbon levy, and so on—has all been proven false, to say nothing about the comparison between us and the US in terms of deficits and economic performance. Oh, but then they may have to actually point out that he’s lying, and they don’t want to do that. Not to mention, this is Canadian journalism, and we don’t like to actually talk to economists to understand what’s going on, we only need them to assist in both-sidesing bullshit talking points from the parties that paint a picture of doom (because there is “no such thing as a good-news economic story”). Is it any wonder Canadians have such a distorted view of the economy?

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians have once again targeted energy faculties in Sumy region, while shelling in Zaporizhzhia, has killed two people. Russians claim that they have captured the town of Ukrainsk in the eastern Donbas region.

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Roundup: Singh’s unfinished business

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As you probably saw, the big news yesterday was Jagmeet Singh melodramatically ripping up the supply-and-confidence agreement with the Liberals—well, except he didn’t really, but he posted a social media video and hid from reporters the whole day, and locked down all of their MPs from speaking…but then put up the party president, who didn’t know what she was talking about, and basically humiliated herself on national television, so that was…something. I’ve already expounded upon the events in a column here, but I will reiterate that the procedural warfare we’re about to see is going to be absolutely ridiculous, and Singh not only doesn’t understand jurisdiction, but also how Parliament works. He’s doomed the very things he claims to care about for the sake of hollow performance.

https://twitter.com/journo_dale/status/1831387238279819412

Here’s a look at what was accomplished from the agreements in the deal and what wasn’t. Pharmacare hasn’t crossed the finish line, so I’m not sure why both the Liberal and NDP are talking like it has (especially because no province has signed on yet). There was also an unfinished commitment to a safe long-term care legislation, which has only completed consultations, but again, this is pretty much entirely within provincial jurisdiction, so I’m not sure how meaningful any federal legislation is going to really be on it. As well, the Elections Act changes promised in the agreement are still being debated. More than anything, the fact that the NDP pulled out of the deal nearly a year early when the Liberals were living up to their side of it looks an awful lot like Singh and the NDP are operating in bad faith, and it doesn’t speak highly for anyone trusting them in any future agreements.

In pundit reaction, Althia Raj defends Singh’s actions, saying it was necessary for the NDP to rebrand themselves as change candidates in the next election. The legendary Don Newman points out that Singh traded policy wins for political power, and that this move will actually cement Trudeau’s leadership since it will be deemed too risky to hold a leadership contest now. Paul Wells notes that Trudeau’s tactic appears to be just staying the course and saying or doing nothing as everything happens around him, so we’ll see how that works for him as the fall rolls along. And as always, the Beaverton got it right.

Ukraine Dispatch

The overnight missile and drone attack Wednesday killed four people in Lviv, while more energy facilities were targeted in nine regions. Here is a lengthy piece about the first F-16 pilot killed in the war. Ukraine’s foreign minister has also resigned in advance of an expected government shake-up.

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Roundup: Emergency summer clip-harvesting

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In need of new video clips for their socials, the Conservatives have decided that they need to call an “emergency” committee meeting about the $9 million purchase of a new condo for the Canadian consul general in New York, because if anything is guaranteed gold for them on social media, it’s clips that will be edited in a way to drive anger and outrage, because that’s their whole game. And if you thought that either of the other two opposition parties were going to be grown-up enough to see through this ploy, well, you’d be wrong, because they also signed right up to put on this dog-and-pony show.

Because Parliament is no longer a place for serious discussions, the Bloc decided they needed to sign onto this farce because $9 million is more than some people earn in a lifetime, which I’m not sure how that’s relevant to the price of real estate in New York, but they apparently want to make a point. The NDP, quite predictably, wants to make this about affordability for all Canadians and not just some political appointees, which again, is irrelevant to the discussion because it’s an asset and not something that said consul general is keeping when his appointment comes to an end. Because nobody can grasp that this is both the going price of real estate in New York (which will increase in value), that the existing residence is being sold to cover these costs, that the new residence will be a net savings, but most importantly, that we need a place for the consul general to host politicians, diplomats, and business leaders, and that place needs to reflect well on Canada, which a bedsit in the outer Bronx is not going to do.

The other really stupid aspect of this is that they plan to call the consult general, former television journalist Tom Clark, to testify at the committee, even though this is not his decision, but one of the department, because it’s their asset. This is not accidental or because they don’t understand—it’s deliberate, because the Conservatives want to harvest clips of them calling him a “Liberal insider,” or a “media buddy,” trying to humiliate him by telling him to his face that Pierre Poilievre has promised to fire him as soon as he forms government, and generally denigrating him and his position—which is a tactic straight out of the authoritarian playbook, for the record. Clark, being in New York, is immune from a summons and should ignore it, because the only person the committee should hear from is the deputy minister, and possibly the minister, as she is politically accountable. But summoning Clark is beyond the pale, and they know it, but that doesn’t stop them from planning a social media campaign around it, because that’s what the House of Commons and its committees has become.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian missiles struck the headquarters of a Swiss mine-clearing NGO in Kharkiv, killing six. Russian drones also hit the Danube port of Izmail, wounding there others. Here’s a look at the people in Mykolaiv in the south, who have been under constant Russian attack.

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Roundup: A predictable lack of self-awareness of her rhetoric

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As day follows night, it was not only predictable but absolutely inevitable that Danielle Smith would immediately start parroting Republican talking points to condemn the rhetoric of her political rivals for the increase in political violence in the wake of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump. And because this is Danielle Smith, there is absolutely zero self-awareness of her own history of violent political rhetoric and encouraging it among the more swivel-eyed elements of her political base in reference to her rivals.

In fact, here are some examples of how Smith’s past rhetoric has put lives in danger, which, again, she refuses to take absolutely any responsibility for. No, it’s the “progressive left” with their “cancel culture” that is creating this violent rhetoric.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre says he worries about the safety of his family, but rejects any notion that he has to tone down his own political rhetoric, where he accuses the prime minister of selling out the country to foreign powers, or offering succour to the “convoy” crowd and their flags denoting their desire to have sex with the prime minister, while refusing to condemn their violent rhetoric (such as images or actual nooses that they carry as part of their grievance cosplay). It should be little wonder then why Canadian intelligence services worry that threats to politicians are increasing because those people see that there’s no consequences for them doing so. Indeed, this comes at the same time as the former Army reservist who crashed into the gates of Rideau Hall with a truck full of guns got out on statutory release. It was a short sentence (he was sentenced to less than half of the maximum), and seems to be no worse for wear from it. It certainly gives all of the impression that we’re not taking it seriously.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine’s navy says that the last Russian patrol ship has left Russian-occupied Crimea to be re-based elsewhere, thanks to Ukraine’s campaign of naval drones causing significant damage to Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says that Ukraine still needs another 25 Patriot missile defence systems, and more F-16s in order to protect the country from further Russian strikes.

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