Roundup: A middle power and a convenor

We are on day twenty-two of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the shelling and air strikes against civilian targets continue—an apartment building in Kyiv, a theatre where children were sheltering in Mariupol. Volodymyr Zelenskyy addressed the US Congress yesterday, invoking Pearl Harbour and 9/11 as part of his demand to close the sky” (which isn’t going to happen), and added that if America can’t do that, then to at least give Ukraine the planes so they can do it themselves. That was obviously a demand he couldn’t make of Canada (no, seriously—third-hand CF-18s would not be of much use to them), so we’ll see if that gets him any further aid from the US—hours after his address, Joe Biden signed an order authorising another $800 million worth of lethal aid, including anti-aircraft systems, so that presentation may have done its job.

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Meanwhile, closer to home, Mélanie Joly’s comments that Canada isn’t a military power, but a middle power whose strength is convening to make sure diplomacy happens and convincing other countries to do more is rubbing a bunch of former military leaders the wrong way. We do contribute militarily, oftentimes more so than other allies who meet the stated NATO spending targets (which is one more reason why those targets are not a great measurement of anything), though our ability to do more is being constrained. That’s one reason why I’m getting mighty tired of the number of articles and op-eds over the last few days calling for more spending, while none of them address the current capacity constraints, particularly around recruiting.

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QP: Some talking points about supporting Ukraine

For Wednesday, caucus day, and this prime minister’s proto-PMQ day, there was a very curious absence in the Chamber, as Candice Bergen was absent even though every other leader was present—even Amita Kuttner was in the gallery watching. Luc Berthold led off, script in front of him, and in French, demanded the expulsion of the Russian ambassador. Justin Trudeau stated that they have been clear in their condemnation, and said they would continue to aid Ukrainians in every way possible—but did not answer the question. Berthold insisted there was no reason for Putin’s representative to stay here and spread misinformation, and Trudeau repeated his “everything we can do” talking points rather than do something like speak about the value of diplomacy. Berthold the pivoted to provinces lifting public health orders and demanded that all federal vaccine mandates be lifted, and Trudeau read some well-worn talking points about following science, and praised Canadians for getting vaccinated. Michael Chong took over in English, and he again demanded that the a Russian ambassador be expelled, and he went on about doing everything they can do for Ukraine. Chong demanded the government order the CRTC to keep RT from Canadian airwaves, and Trudeau read a script about information warfare and that they are asking the CRTC to conduct a review, but it was important to note that this was in the hands of independent regulators and not politicians.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and worried about the government musing about sending Western Canadian oil to Europe, and Trudeau, extemporaneously, said the future depends on decarbonising but at the moment Europe needs help so they would see what they can do. Blanchet wanted more clarity about what this means, and Trudeau rebutted that his was the government that has done the most to combat climate change, but they would be there to help friends in Europe.

Jagmeet Singh rose for the NDP, in person today, and demanded visa-free travel for Ukrainians, citing Lloyd Axworthy, and Trudeau insisted they were not refusing but were working to increase the ease by which they can help Ukrainians coming to Canada, and they were looking at the best way to go about this. Singh repeated the demand in French, and a Trudeau repeated his answer.

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Roundup: Complacency versus the hard work of democracy

Things are fraught in Ottawa, tempers are short. A lot of stuff that has been barely under the surface is blowing up. David Reevely has some thoughts about where we find ourselves, and why, and he’s pretty dead-on about it.

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QP: Platitudes about new tools for police

With the Emergencies Act having been invoked, the prime minister was present in the Chamber today, as were most other leaders, which was good, because an exercise of emergency powers requires scrutiny. I’m not sure that’s what we got today. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, worrying about the Emergencies Act declaration, and wondered if the motion would not be bought before the Chamber until Friday, before the break week—which was a valid, if perhaps overly dramatic, concern. Justin Trudeau gave prepared remarks on the consultations with provinces and the time-limited nature of the declaration, but didn’t answer the question. Bergen noted that before she noted that the blockades in Coutts and Windsor cleared without this declaration, and concern trolled that the declaration would make the situation worse. Trudeau stated that this was a time for responsible leadership rather than the Conservatives encouraging these blockades. Bergen insisted that this was about an “ideological” desire to keep COVID measures in place, and pretended that this was against “science.” Trudeau repeated his points, this time naming individual MPs for encouraging these actions to continue. Gérard Deltell took over in French, and worried that half of the premiers were against the declaration and that this poured oiled on the fire, and Trudeau insisted this was about additional tools that the police of jurisdiction could use. Deltell repeated his concerns, and Trudeau insisted that these were “responsible steps” to keep the streets clear of illegal demonstrations. 

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and noted the situations resolved without the need for the Act, but worried that the declaration did not specify the geographic location it was to be imposed and wanted assurances it would not be applied in Quebec. Trudeau assured him the tools were only available if requested by local police. Blanchet gave a paranoid suggestion this was about imposing legislation on Quebec against their will, to which Trudeau repeated his points about local police.

Jagmeet Singh appeared by video for the NDP, and he decried the double standard of treatment of this occupation and worried about reports of police and military participation, and wanted assurances the measures would be used “for people” and not to support the occupation. Trudeau repeated about providing tools for police to give people their streets back. In French, Singh raised the weapons found in Coutts before repeating Blanchet’s demand not to apply it in Quebec, and Trudeau again insisted they would not impose anything where it was not needed by local police. 

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Roundup: Invoking the Emergencies Act

After two years, of begging, pleading, and outright cajoling, the media have finally been giving what they have been demanding, which is to invoke the Emergencies Act. (Speech here). It’s something that really shouldn’t have happened, and yet here we are, because incompetent murderclown Doug Ford refused to do his job with providing adequate support for ending the occupation in Ottawa, using the tools at his disposal at the provincial level like licenses and insurance, and providing more OPP officers. Or if the Ottawa police had done any part of their jobs rather than declaring it to be Purge Rules in the occupied territory. But Ford gave his support to this invocation, because of course he did, as it successfully makes it Trudeau’s problem and not his, even though much of the situation can be chalked up to his failure to take it seriously. Other premiers were not so keen.

The government insists this is narrowly crafted, only targets a few sites, is not about the military, and the Act itself only allows for 30 days increments of it being imposed. We don’t have many more details that what was in the press release, which is a bit concerning, but one thing that did stand out was the promise that the government would freeze corporate and personal bank accounts for these occupiers, as well as have their insurance suspended, which is kind of a big deal if you’re a legit trucker. There is concerned that the bank accounts could be an overreach, so we’ll have to see the details about how this will be crafted before there can be too much determination made, but there are worries this gets weaponized by a future government.

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Of course, every pundit, talking head, and opposition MP is going to try to spin this as some kind of failure on Trudeau’s part, even though he never had any levers to pull on this problem in the first place as it’s local police jurisdiction, and the most he could offer was performance art. Nevertheless, he’s now taking on the mantle of responsibility and accountability, which just makes holding everyone else who failed to account even harder. (Look for more on this in my upcoming column).

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QP: In the shadow of the Emergencies Act

While talk of the imminent imposition of the Emergencies Act swirled, the prime minister was in his office but not in the Chamber for QP. Candice Bergen led off, script in front of her, and quoted Section 16 of the Emergencies Act to ask if he considers the blockades a threat to national security, to which Marco Mendicino quoted the arrests on Coutts this morning for weapons before listing supports the federal government provided to end the blockades. Bergen demanded the government agree with their Supply Day motion to capitulate to the occupiers, and Bill Blair railed about the illegal occupations. Bergen called capitulation “not unreasonable,” and demanded “hope and optimism” for Canadians. Mark Holland said that the Conservatives squandered all attempts at de-escalation, citing their various MPs who have supported it. Luc Berthold took over in French, and repeated the “division and stigmatisation” line before wondering how the government could possibly consider emergency measures. Mendicino repeated his previous answer. Berthold said that nobody wanted to see the army in the streets before demanding capitulation, and Holland repeated his condemnation of irresponsible Conservative statements in support of the occupations.

For the Bloc, Alain Therrien wanted to know how the prime minister planned to use emergency powers, and demanded a detailed plan today. Mendicino read about the support the federal government has offered. Therrien was not satisfied, but Mendicino simply repeated his response.

Peter Julian led for the NDP, and wondered why the prime minister didn’t “show leadership” 18 days ago—as though there were federal powers he could deploy (there weren’t). Bill Blair denounced the occupations and blockades, and stated that they did provide support where requested. Alexandre Boulerice took over in French to lament the same, and Mendicino repeated the script about supports given.

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Roundup: An inexplicable failure of police

Amidst all of the finger-pointing and blame-shifting, as everyone tries to pin the current occupations and blockades on the prime ministers, those of us who pay attention know that the real problem here is policing, and ultimately the rule of law. Bill Blair has rightly called it “inexplicable” why the Ottawa Police have not done their jobs to uphold and enforce the law, particularly when they have plenty of resources and added authority under the state of emergencies that have been declared municipally and provincially. Still no dice. And while the city says they’re waiting for reinforcements, we also find that there is actually no plan for what to do with them when they do arrive (and they have been trickling in), which inspires no confidence at all that this is going to be resolved anytime soon.

At the same time, the drumbeat for federal emergency powers is getting louder, and while ministers are saying it’s under consideration, there was also a Cabinet meeting last night, which is very unusual and could signal preparations for it. That said, it’s unlikely that they will without the invitation from Ontario to do so, and even if they do, it’s still a trap because they want Trudeau to wear this (more than he already is), and any action would ensure that he’s the one to do so.

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In the meantime, we’re seeing gutless municipal politicians do their own blame-shifting and ass-covering and try to put this on Trudeau. No. The city’s Police Services Board is the civilian authority for the police and the body which holds them to account. They are the ones who have the power here. They should be calling the chief to the carpet and telling him that if he and his people don’t do their jobs and start enforcing the law, then he can find a new one, and keep going down the line until it starts to happen. But when it all comes down to it, these last almost-three weeks have clearly demonstrated that the Ottawa Police Service, which was already putrid with corruption, is irredeemable and needs to be disbanded entirely in order to start over from the ground up.

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Roundup: Ford wakes up after letting Ottawa suffer

After being content to let Ottawa suffer under occupation by grifters, extremists and conspiracy theorists for the past two weeks, Doug Ford woke up and got serious now that the Ambassador Bridge is threatened. He declared a state of emergency and promised permanent legislation about blocking critical infrastructure, with fines of up to $100,000 and up to a year imprisonment, but that didn’t seem to help motivate police any. It was an injunction in Windsor that seems to have had more of an impact (and I find the notion that police will enforce an injunction but not uphold the laws on the statute books to be a concerning development with the rule of law). They were promising enforcement, but we’ll see, given that the crowd only grew once the injunction came into effect.

Meanwhile, I find myself a bit at a loss about the demands that Justin Trudeau “show leadership” in this situation. Every time I ask someone just which federal levers he should be deploying, I get static in reply. When pressed on the topic on Power & Politics the other day, Jagmeet Singh flailed and handwaved before resorting to a Jaida Essence Hall and trying to make a bunch of erroneous statements about healthcare funding. Trudeau cannot simply assert authority in this situation—it frankly does not meet the test for the Emergencies Act, and I’m not convinced this is a situation that requires it. I fail to see the utility of trying to get the RCMP to bigfoot the Ottawa Police as a) they don’t have the expertise in this situation, and b) they don’t have the numbers, particularly in the area. He’s not going to call in the military, because that is a very, very bad idea and more to the point, it’s the premier or his attorney general who needs to make the request for the aid to civil power under the National Defence Act. What else should Trudeau be doing? He told the convoy to go home on the first Monday (meaning, day four) during Question Period and elsewhere (you know, when members of the media accused him of being “in hiding” when he was in COVID isolation and still attending the House of Commons virtually). He’s been making calls the whole time, though not necessarily as performatively as is being demanded. So how else should he be “showing leadership”? What other powers should he be deploying? And even more to the point, why should he be playing into the trap that Ford and the extremist organizers themselves are laying out for him that is trying to put him at the centre of this?

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Roundup: Proposing to ignore the virus

In the wake of the demands by extremist-led “protests” to lift all vaccine mandates around the country, nowhere as this demand been capitulated to as fast as in Saskatchewan and Alberta, where both provinces are pretty much eliminating their mandates as soon as possible, with no consultation, and while their hospitals are still full. Federally, the Conservatives are making the same demand for this capitulation, and they’re using a bunch of specious arguments, like listing countries that are lifting their restrictions already, never mind that in most of those countries, they have better healthcare capacity than we do, and they are further along in their omicron waves than we are. Fortunately, Ontario is not rushing to join them for a change, so that’s one small favour.

What is more concerning, however, is this talking point about “learning to live with COVID,” but in abandoning all public health measures, including mask mandates, they’re not actually planning to live with COVID—they’re planning to ignore it, to let it rip, to capitulate to the virus as much as they are eager to capitulate to the extremists claiming to protest. Learning to live with the virus would mean adequate and sustainable precautions, better focus on indoor ventilation, ongoing mask mandates in indoor spaces, and so on—and the ongoing insistence on vaccination, because that’s what will save us in the long run. But that’s not what they’re proposing, because they are so keen to return to the old normal, never mind that said world no longer exists by any measure. And it’s not “following the science” to take the notion that we need to just let the virus rip at this point—it’s being intellectually dishonest and pandering to selfish instincts.

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Roundup: Lightbound goes rogue

It was something of a spectacle yesterday to watch Liberal backbencher Joël Lightbound call a press conference to denounce his party’s handling of the pandemic, and to call for a roadmap to end public health measures—never mind that the vast majority of those measures are provincial in nature—and to deploy the farcical Conservative talking points about how “divisive” the prime minister has been about vaccine mandates. (Full transcript here). Some of it made little sense—this virus doesn’t operate on timetables, mandates were deemed necessary because carrots weren’t working anymore and governments needed to employ more sticks to drive up vaccination rates because we still need more people to get fully vaccinated if we want to have any hope of achieving some level of herd immunity, and yes, there are some deeply selfish people who refuse to get vaccinated, and we should absolutely call them out on that fact. (And to the point about complaints of the prime minister’s alleged name-calling around the grifter convoy, he clocked them for what they were, and if a few credulous numpties attaching themselves to this band of grifters, extremists and conspiracy theorists gets offended, they should take a hard look at the company they keep).

This being said, we need to ensure that there is room for MPs to dissent, and the Liberals have been better than most about that in their current incarnation. They have a handful of MPs who routinely go rogue, though generally in not so spectacular a fashion as Lightbound did yesterday. This being said, the comparisons to Jane Philpott and Jody Wilson-Raybould have been circulating, but I don’t find the circumstances remotely similar. Wilson-Raybould had begun a media campaign against the prime minister, and the revelation of the recordings she made of private phone calls was a signal that she was unlikely to be trusted again, which is a huge problem. Philpott, on the other hand, was naively trying to run her own media campaign, cleverly trying to dole out tidbits to various outlets in a coordinated strategy, while she was also found to be taking notes in caucus (which is forbidden—they take away your phones and materials because caucus confidentially needs to be enforced), and again, that led to issues of trust because her media strategy was in the open. That is not the case here, and Lightbound says he continues to have confidence in the government, but felt the need to speak out. While he resigned his position as the party’s Quebec caucus chair, we’ll see if he retains his post as industry committee chair, or if he gets sent off to scrutiny of regulations to cool his heels for a while.

Meanwhile, Althia Raj wishes that we saw more MPs going rogue like Lightbound, while Paul Wells delves deeper into Lightbound, the dynamics at play, and the problem that this government has in its inability to communicate or manage issues.

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