Tag Archives: Budget 2026

Roundup: More gas-fired electricity, just because

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Prime minister Mark Carney announced his national electricity plan yesterday, which he’s calling Powering Canada Strong™ (and I swear to Zeus, I am so tired of branding everything “Canada Strong™” by this point). He wants to double production by 2050, as well as connect provincial power grids with interties, build the skilled workforce necessary, and manufacture the technology to do so in Canada. And it all sounds well and good, but to get there, he plans to weaken the Trudeau-era Clean Electricity Regulations in order to allow a lot more natural gas-fired production. You know, for “flexibility.”

At this point you have to wonder how Carney can keep up the pretence that he is still going to meet our climate targets, and yet, he keeps saying that’s what’s going to happen. Sure, he’ll “adjust them,” but if you say we’re weakening them, he gets testy and huffy. But the notion that by “building up we can drive emissions down” is farcical on its face. It relies on the same logic of reducing emissions intensity while increasing the overall volume of production (and it was a tell that he used emissions intensity when talking about gas-fired electricity)—you’re still increasing overall emissions, albeit at a slightly lower rate. And to be clear, Canada was making progress in driving emission down, and we had an actual path to meeting our targets, but that has been completely blown out of the water now.

I’m also getting increasingly tired of this being billed as “pragmatic,” when it’s not in the longer term. The climate crisis is already here, and it’s reflected in the dramatic increase in wildfire season, extreme weather events, and increasing droughts that have pushed up food prices, at home and abroad. We can’t just keep ignoring this and treating climate goals or environmental protection as a luxury add-on. It’s essential to ensuring we have a stable economy of the future, and the fact that Carney and nearly everyone else is ignoring this fact is a really, really big problem, because the costs for kicking this down the road are already being felt. It’s only going to get worse from here, and they keep insisting that they want to make that future pain as bad as it can possibly get.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-14T19:08:01.779Z

Programming Note: I am taking the full long weekend off from the blog. See you Wednesday, and happy Victoria Day.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s massive drone attack continues, with the count at over 1567 drones since Wednesday, and the death toll now over 37 as an apartment building was struck. Zelenskyy’s former chief of staff has now been arrested in relation to money laundering charges. Meanwhile, the government of Latvia has lost its parliamentary majority over the handling of the incident where a Ukrainian drone accidentally flew into their territory.

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Roundup: Concerning nomination irregularities

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Liberal MP and provincial Liberal leadership hopeful Nate Erskine-Smith has formally filed an appeal over the results of Saturday’s nomination vote in Scarborough Southwest, listing a number of irregularities that included there being more votes in the ballot box than the number of people who registered to vote—34 added votes, when he lost by a mere 19 votes. There were also accusations that a suspicious number of people arrived to vote who “just lost their drivers’ licence” or “just moved to the riding,” and even more suspicious allegations of those who were on speakerphone or video calls in the voting booth, being directed how to vote.

The party’s interim leader had already dismissed this as Erskine-Smith being a sore loser, but there were scrutineers at the event, who are providing affidavits, who pointed to these irregularities, and they are people who have done election monitoring abroad, so we should be fairly confident in their observations. And even more to the point, Erskine-Smith has effectively removed himself from the race and wants an investigation for the sake of an investigation, because these are serious allegations. There have been operatives from both Liberals and Conservatives over on social media saying these kinds of tactics are endemic, but unfortunately most are pointing to the fact that the party allows temporary residents to vote, meaning that again, there is scapegoating happening (and to be clear, when Erskine-Smith says that there were temporary residents voting, his primary complaint was that they appeared to have no idea why they were there, which is not the same as a temporary resident who got involved in the riding association or campaign. There are problems with how these contests are run, but I’m also not certain that putting them under the jurisdiction of Elections Canada or the provincial election agency is necessarily the answer given how much of an expansion of their mandate and capacity would need to be, to the point that it would be unwieldy.

As for Erskine-Smith’s future, he has confirmed that he is resigning his federal seat regardless by the time the Commons rises for the summer. After that, he’s not sure. He lost this nomination, and it’s clear that there is a segment of the establishment within the Ontario Liberal Party that is going to resist him and his plans to make changes to how things are run, so it may not be worth his time and energy if this is how things will play out. It would be a loss for the provincial party, which needs a good kick in the ass, and he might be the best placed to do it, but if the party establishment is going to pull out all the stops to prevent him from getting that far, is there a point? (Meanwhile, Doug Ford will chortle and be premier for ever).

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched over 200 drones early Tuesday, killing at least six people in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Zelenskyy is facing a new challenge now that his former chief of staff has been charged with money laundering.

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Roundup: Closer to a deal with Danielle Smith

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Prime minister Mark Carney met with Alberta premier Danielle Smith Friday morning in Ottawa, and by all accounts, they made progress on finalising the terms of the MOU that would see a west coast pipeline built, with Smith saying that their final sticking point is the industrial carbon price but she expects they will get to a “win-win” deal. I don’t actually believe it will be win-win because every deal so far has been an abject capitulation where Alberta gets to flout the rules, either with longer timelines than everyone else, or a weaker effective carbon price (because the province keeps instituting new credits that lower the price). Smith also keeps saying that this deal will help “quell separatism,” which is also bullshit because they don’t actually care policy (which you’ll see in a moment), and the fact that she is encouraging them is not exactly doing anything to quell the movement—quite the opposite, in fact. Everything she has done has encouraged them.

And then by mid-afternoon, the government released their consultation documents for their planned “streamlining” of environmental assessments, which pretty much involves gutting the systems worse than Stephen Harper did, puts unrealistic timelines on consultations (particularly for Indigenous communities which lack the resources to do the work in an expedited manner), and gives a whole lot of power to individual ministers to approve projects with fewer safeguards, which is ripe for abuse and corruption. None of this is good or positive, in spite of the whinging of certain industry executives because they simply don’t want to put in the work. Everything just feels like we’re going backward, and we’re back to “pollution is fine because we’re in a trade war,” as if there aren’t long-term costs and consequences.

Meanwhile, Richard Warnica of the Star went to Alberta and spent time with the separatists, and it’s a swamp of conspiracy theories and fabrications (which he performatively fact-checked a bunch of, and lo, it’s all false. All of it). It’s an absolutely disturbing read, but it also skirts some of the underlying issues—that this is a movement that is steeped in white and Christian nationalism (and these people were deliberately marginalised back in the seventies and eighties by the Lougheed and Getty governments), that has festered in a poisoned information ecosystem and a political ecosystem that has relied on scapegoating Ottawa for the past five decades rather than dealing with the reality of their situation (they’re price-takers for oil, and the fact that they’re a virtual one-party state has invited all manner of corruption in their system). So no, any regulatory changes that Mark Carney might push through won’t mollify them. Another pipeline will make no difference—the last one didn’t, and the province absolutely reneged on the “grand bargain” it was supposed to represent. This is a quasi-cult whose brains have rotted on social media and Fox News, and simply giving them everything they say they want won’t actually solve any problems. It will likely just make things even worse.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-05-08T19:08:04.965Z

Ukraine Dispatch

A three-day ceasefire and 1000 prisoner exchange has apparently been agreed to, while Russia plans a scaled-back Victory Day parade (because they have no tanks left and they are paranoid Ukraine will attack). Ukraine is running short of air defence missiles after the massive assault over the winter.

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QP: Taunts about a Conservative-Liberal merger

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The PM was meeting with Princess Margriet of the Netherlands, while Pierre Poilievre was also absent from QP yet again. That left Carol Anstey to lead off, going full Karen, as she listed the things she wanted to speak to the manager about, like gas prices and the gun buyback. Steven MacKinnon got up to say he still hasn’t received a list from the Conservatives on things they would cut. Anstey cited consultants and the gun buyback as cuts, And again demanded gas taxes be cut. This time Wayne Long got up to deploy his line about being “laser-focused.” The very masculine Jacob Mantle got up to quote the CEO of Cenovus for claiming that carbon prices have driven projects out of Canada. Tim Hodgson said that he should listen to the CEO of Shell, who praised developments in Canada. Hodgson demanded a pipeline today, and Hodgson listed those which got approved, along with other projects. Gabriel Hardy quoted a Fraser Institute study on youth unemployment, to which Joël Lightbound pointed to the training funds for skilled trades in the spring economic update. Hardy then groused that the Major Project Office has not approved any project before bellyaching about taxes, and jammed in a reference to the “national credit card.” MacKinnon repeated the points about skilled trades, and noted Conservative opposition to projects like Alto.

Christine Normandin got up to raise the story about the government fast-Tracking more oil projects, and wondered how any environmentalists could be left in that party. Julie Dabrusin pointed to their methane regulations and insisted the government was showing leadership. Normandin taunted that the Conservatives must be itching to cross the floor as a result of the Liberal love for oil, to which Dabrusin wanted to assure the House that they were putting in the work on the environment. Mario Simard took over to continue the taunts about the environment, and this time MacKinnon got up to say that major energy projects can transform an economy, which included conventional energy. 

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QP: Justin Trudeau with a better LinkedIn account?

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The PM was off to Mirabel for an aerospace announcement, while back in the House of Commons, Pierre Poilievre was absent, leaving it to Sandra Cobena to lead off, complaining about the deficit as a way to demand the government cut all gas taxes. Wayne Long got up to recite the growth rates and the fact that wages are outpacing inflation. Cobena listed supposed scandals, before demanding the gas tax cut again. Steven MacKinnon got up to demand a list of programmes the Conservatives want got cut which they consider “inflationary spending.” Andrew Lawton took over to list more examples of supposed waste, and MacKinnon congratulated him on the number of empty slogans in a single question. Lawton retorted on the record of hot air from a transport minister, and tried the same again with some emphasis on their mocking the space launch facility lease. David McGuinty took this one, and he praised sovereign space launch capabilities. Dominique Vien took over in French to raise the issue of costs of food on the prime minister’s plane, and McGuinty turned this around that when talking about planes, the prime minister was in Mirabel to announce the largest aerospace order in Canadian history. Vien demanded gas taxes cuts, to which Joël Lightbound listed tax cuts they have already made, along with other benefit programmes, and the trade surplus recorded in March.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she demanded a wage subsidy for firms affected by the new U.S. tariffs, and MacKinnon reminded her of the supports they announced this week before patting himself on the back for the record airplane order again. Normandin was not satisfied, and again demanded a wage subsidy, and MacKinnon repeated the same response, and added that the Bloc should have offered congratulations for the order. Gabriel Ste-Marie took over to ask the same again, and Lightbound repeated that they are always there to support workers.

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QP: Unsuccessfully trying to goad the PM

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Fresh from his trip to Armenia and his announcement of Louise Arbour as the next Governor General, the PM was present for QP today. Pierre Poilievre also showed up, and he led off in French, and he immediately started taking swipes at the immigration minister, and demanded that the prime minister fire her. Mark Carney ignored the question, and praised Arbour as the next GG in French. Poilievre raised the visa for the Iranian official who got on a plane to Canada, and again demanded he fire her. Carney stated that Iranian officials are not allowed in Canada, and that they are taking steps to ensure it doesn’t happen. Poilievre repeated the question/demand in English, and Carney repeated his same answer in English, before reciting his Farge-esque line about taking back control of the immigration system. Poilievre listed a bunch of misleading statistics about Iranian officials already in Canada, and again demanded the firing, and Carney rattled off the number of investigations, cancelled visas, and removals. Poilievre then switched to the Cowichan decision, recited some misleading nonsense, and claimed the government wasn’t defending homeowners. Carney said that they respect private property rights, which is why they appealed the decision, and then noted that it was Red Dress day. Poilievre claimed this was just an illusion, and cited the government’s litigation directives on Indigenous rights, and again claimed the government was not defending rights. Carney hit back that the only illusion was whether this makeover of Poilievre’s would work more than his previous attempts, and then repeated his same response. 

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and demanded to know why the government wasn’t not implementing wage subsidies for businesses in peril from tariffs. Carney said that he wanted to thank the member across the way for his support for the new measures announced. Blanchet was not satisfied, and tried again. Carney pointed out that the new measures will flow immediately, and it also goes to small businesses. Blanchet was still not mollified, and said that these small businesses could not go deeper into debt and demanded a wage subsidy again. Carney responded with praise from Quebec business groups for the new support measures. 

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QP: On what date remains a terrible question

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The PM was wrapping up his meetings in Armenia and preparing to head home, while Pierre Poilievre was also away. That left it up to Melissa Lantsman to lead off, with the usual lines about “credit card” spending, and costs. Wayne Long stood up to praise the government’s efforts. Lantsman repeated the script with added disdain, and Evan Solomon took this one, to raise the trade war, and wondered what the Conservatives would cut. Tim Uppal took over and demanded to know when a pipeline would start construction. Mélanie Joly also pointed that there was a trade war going on. Uppal tried again, and Tim Hodgson suggested they spend time talking to proponents instead of just getting social media clips. Luc Berthold took over and read the “credit card” lines in French, and Joly repeated that we are in a trade war. Berthold ranted some absolute nonsense about “printing debt,” and Joly suggested he take a math lesson and recited the talking points about our position in the G7.

Oral questions. Questions orales. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-04T18:19:17.092Z

Lantsman blames high gas prices on government spending. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-04T18:20:58.026Z

Joly: We are in a trade war. #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2026-05-04T18:24:39.790Z

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she called the government’s tariff support announcement this morning to be insufficient, particularly for small and medium-sized businesses. Joly praised the terms they are offering for the loans to help those firms. Normandin said that while the Bloc will cooperate with this measures, they government needs to do more, especially with a wage subsidy. Joly said that they will do more, because the government stands with the industry. Gabriel Ste-Marie gave his own question on the increased tariffs, and demanded more immediate support. Dominic LeBlanc said that he was touch with industry stakeholders. 

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Roundup: Reading into the Spring Update

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There was a bit of a dust-up, if we can call it that, online over the weekend, following Althia Raj’s weekend column, in which she calls out the fact that while Carney claims he’s protecting social programmes, he is in fact cutting them along with transfers to provinces. And she’s not wrong in the fact that there is a lot of sunsetting funding with no indication that it’s being renewed again, which makes it hard for provinces or organisations to plan on what their future funding will be. Enter Tyler Meredith, who was an economic advisor to Justin Trudeau (but who is now out of government), and he took issue with Raj’s assertions in this thread:

https://twitter.com/tylermeredith/status/2050715852773695646

And I take his point that no decisions have been made on any of this funding that is due to sunset, but I also think he’s being a bit overly generous with the government on some things, such as the creation of a personal support workers’ tax credit as “proof” that the government is being too bro-focused. One tax credit does not a care economy/women’s state make, particularly one that is that low. And to that end, Raj gave her own response in this thread:

And she brings the receipts when it comes to what’s in the documents, particularly around how Carney’s rhetoric around things like pharmacare not matching the reality on the ground, where there is a half-assed programme in a few provinces, which has not been extended to all others in the past year, and which seems to be no closer to negotiating toward the creation of an actual national programme, beyond the things the NDP insisted on in the dumbest way possible. Which brings me to this point that Mike Moffatt made about the two exchanges:

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/2050943140949856708

https://twitter.com/mikepmoffatt/status/2050945741221195827

The Carney government doesn’t like to give a lot of details, and relies an awful lot on saying “just trust me” to a whole lot of things, which it really shouldn’t do. And then for everyone to get upset because they we can’t read minds or scry into the future is a problem in trying to communicate to the public. We’re not getting good information out of this government, and that needs to change, and these exchanges are a perfect encapsulation of that.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone hit a bus in Kherson, killing two and injuring seven others. Ukraine struck the port of Primorsk, the largest oil export port on the Baltic Sea.

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QP: The magic of balanced budgets

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The PM was absent once again, off to Oakville to tout his plan to invest in the skilled trades, while back in the House of Commons, the Conservatives had a Supply Day where their motion was on denouncing the “sovereign wealth fund” plan. With that in mind, Pierre Poilievre was also absent, leaving it up to Melissa Lantsman to lead off, reciting the scripts about the so-called “credit card” budget and debt servicing charges, and wondered when the government would stop. Patty Hajdu wondered if their support for skilled trades was “inflationary spending” and quoted the building trades unions. Lantsman said the government debts were “killing” Canadians, and Hajdu again listed all of those skilled trades who were being supported by the government. Andrew Scheer took over, and he also read the same lines, added that the deficit was double Justin Trudeau’s, and said some nonsense about inflation. John Zerucelli got up to note that the Conservatives haven’t talked about workers, and then read some quotes from building trades unions. Scheer obliged and said that workers were tired of having no spending power, and quote a Globe and Mail editorial to make his point. Gregor Robertson got up to say the Conservatives never want to talk about affordable housing, and how those new tradespeople would help build it. Pierre Paul-Hus took over in French, and he quoted another columnist who decried the lack of fiscal discipline in the spring update. Mélanie Joly said that she was flabbergasted that the Conservatives don’t take the tariff war seriously. Paul-Hus tried again, and Joly defended the social safety net for when Canadian need it.

Yves Perron led for the Bloc, and he decried that there was no support for more businesses affected by the tariff changes while oil companies were getting handouts. Julie Dabrusin praised their strategies for electric vehicles and clean energy—which wasn’t the question. Perron then worried that the was no added support for the media or pensioners unlike oil company. Joly was incredulous as those talking points, and said that she was just in contact with the Quebec finance minister. Patrick Bonin denounced the tax credit for enhanced oil recovery in the spring update, and Dabrusin got back up to praise the nature strategy in the update, which again was not the question.

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Roundup: Two committees move behind closed doors

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There is a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth happening by the Conservatives because debate in two committees was moved behind closed doors now that the Liberals are able to exert majority control of them. The cry is that they’re shutting down “public debate,” but I’m dubious. Members of the government won’t say why this was necessary, but I’m not ready to pull the fire alarm just yet.

Why? Because the two committees in question have been in the throes of attempted witch hunt studies that the Conservatives have been trying to orchestrate (with the gleeful assistance of the Bloc, who are happy to embarrass the government any day of the week). In the ethics committee, it’s been the wrangling over trying to insinuate that François-Philippe Champagne was in a conflict of interest because the Alto high speed rail project was included in the budget when he has since put up an ethics screen because his spouse is now an executive on the project. The thing is, the Ethics Commissioner already said that there is no conflict because Alto reports to a different line minister, but Champagne put up the screen out of an abundance of caution. He did agree to appear after a filibuster, but this may be the Liberals trying to get out of it, and not unsurprisingly. The Conservatives have been trying to engineer this meeting so that they can harvest a bunch of clips of them calling Champagne corrupt and him prevaricating or looking obstinate.

The other committee is health, where the Conservatives are trying to manufacture another “boondoggle” around the PrescribeIT project, which as I understand it, was created at the behest of the provinces, who then decided not to take it up once it was developed. Oh, but there was outsourcing! And? They haven’t been able to make any particular allegation other than it cost money, and this is somehow entirely the federal government’s fault for trying to accommodate provinces who, to this day, refuse to come together on common standards for electronic health records, which has been a persistent problem for two decades now. Suffice to say, I’m not convinced that moving procedural wrangling in camera is a sign that democracy is under threat, and there was a whole lot of this very same thing when the Conservatives had a majority on committees (and they turned those committees into branch plants of ministers’ offices). They may try to cast themselves as heroes for inventing scandals, but I remain unconvinced that this is a danger to parliamentary democracy just yet.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2026-04-29T13:08:02.607Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s attack on Odesa early Wednesday hit residential buildings and a hospital. Ukraine says its new long-range drones hit a Russian oil pumping station 1500 km away from the border. Here is a look at the interceptor drone programme to stop Russia’s Shahed drones, and how the interception rate is now up to 90 percent.

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