Tag Archives: CSIS

Roundup: The second tranche of PONIs

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Yesterday was the day that Mark Carney announced the second tranche of PONIs to be referred to the Major Projects Office, which consisted of six existing projects and one “concept,” which I’m pretty unsure how it was supposed to work. Three of those projects are mines—Sisson Mine for tungsten in New Brunswick, Crawford Nickel project in Ontario, and the Nouveau Monde Graphite phase 2 project in Quebec. Those very much align with the desire to make Canada a more trustworthy supplier of critical minerals than China (though pat of the problem is that they have a near-monopoly on refining and processing). A hydro project for Iqaluit was on the list, as was a transmission line between northwestern BC and the Yukon, and an LNG Project on the BC coast that has some Indigenous partnerships (but  not every First Nation in the area is in favour, and there are concerns about its ownership structure). As for that “concept,” it is referred to as the Northwest Critical Conservation Corridor, also between northwest B.C. and Yukon., and it could include critical minerals and clean power transmission developments in the area. Again, I’m not sure how that works with no actual project or proponent.

In some of these cases, as in the first tranche of projects, some of them are fairly well developed and along the process, while in others, they’ve been discussed forever and have some Indigenous buy-in, but shovels have never been in the ground (like the Sisson Mine). It again raises questions about what the MPO is supposed to do here, but its head, Dawn Farrell, was talking about ensuring that these processes happen in parallel and not sequentially, and would also do things like security financing, guaranteeing pricing, and ensuring a supply of skilled labour, which seems like an awful lot of things for them to try and control for.

And then there’s Alberta and its imaginary pipeline, which Danielle Smith insists she’s still working on, so she’s supportive of these projects, because she is still “negotiating” for that pipeline to the northwest BC coast that neither the province nor the affected First Nations want, while there is a growing supply glut in the market. I’m pretty sure another pipeline won’t save her province’s finances, but she’s going to keep trying.

Ukraine Dispatch

Kyiv was under another “massive” attack early this morning, and at least eleven people have been wounded. President Zelenskyy visited troops near the front lines in Zaporizhzhia.

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Roundup: Poilievre’s second backtrack attempt

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Still under fire for his comments about Justin Trudeau and the “despicable” leadership at the RCMP, Pierre Poilievre has been forced to backtrack a second time. The first was his tactic of issuing clarifications only to media outlets and not his social media or party channels, and that didn’t mollify people, so this time he held a media availability and insisted that he didn’t say what we all heard him say, and then sent his MPs out to do media to also overly parse what his language was, and to try and spin it to say something other than what we all heard him say, and to insist that what we all heard him say was out of context. (It was not). He is now claiming that he didn’t say Trudeau should be jailed—only that he “clearly” broke a law that would impose jailtime (even though it was not clear he broke said law), and that clearly isn’t the same thing. Kind of like how they’re not scapegoating immigrants, they’re just criticising Liberal immigration policy (wink).

Meanwhile, members of his caucus are getting restive, and while they all made a big show of publicly supporting him, several have been quietly talking to media outlets about their dissatisfaction. While some are saying they’re undecided if they want to vote for him continuing in the leadership review, I also suspect that there are very few Conservatives in the caucus who have the spine or the intestinal fortitude to actually vote against him, no matter how inappropriate the comment, because there are precious few MPs in any party who would dare stand against their leader and face the wrath of having their nomination papers go unsigned.

Carney Speech

Prime minister Mark Carney gave a speech last night that was intended as a kind of pre-budget positioning, but also a kind of victory lap to pat themselves on the back for all of the work they’ve been doing since the election. Carney promised that the budget was going to unleash all kinds of private sector investment, but I also feel like we’ve been hearing that refrain for the past two decades and not a lot of it has really materialized. He said he wants to double non-US exports over the next decade. He spoke about “betting big,” and getting back to a culture of doing big things, but the thing about that kind of talk is that it ignores the people who were impacted by that, most particularly Indigenous people who were displaced or exploited in the process. He said that this is going to take more than a few months and can’t happen overnight, but he also talked about “sacrifices,” particularly as he talks about cutting government spending.

My problem with this particular rhetoric is that he never quite makes it clear who will be making those sacrifices, and you can be damn sure it’s not CEOs or rich white dudes. In fact, you can pretty much set your watch by the fact that the “sacrifices” are going to be on the backs of women’s programmes, queer/trans people and other minority groups whose funding is going to be slashed to nothing, it’s going to be the poor who will find that programming designed to assist them will be gone (but hey, they’ll get their benefits thanks to automatic filing, whenever that actually happens). We’ve seen this happen time and again, and the cycle of time is coming around once again, and Carney is making no move to stop it and finding a new path.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-22T22:02:55.404Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The fairly massive attack early Wednesday targeted several cities and killed six, including two children, as a kindergarten was struck. Russia claims it took two more villages in Donetsk region. Sweden has signed a letter of intent about supplying 150 Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine.

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Roundup: More than just the CRA in the Auditor General’s gaze

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It was Auditor General Day yesterday, and boy were there some doozies. Pretty much all of the media attention was focused on the CRA audit, and the finding that call centres pretty much didn’t answer the phones, and when they did, they only gave correct information about seventeen percent of the time in the calls the Auditor General’s office made—yikes! The government is quibbling with the methodology, because of course they are, but also calling the report “constructive criticism” instead of “scathing,” and because these are the Liberals, François-Philippe Champagne thundered that the “good news” was that they had already started their one-hundred-day action plan to fix things without waiting for the report. (No, seriously—he declared this to be “good news” in Question Period). That said, when pressed about whether inadequate staffing was a problem, and what the coming civil service cuts were going to mean, the Secretary of State, Wayne Long, had no answer for it, which you would think is a pretty important detail considering just how embarrassing this is for the government. He also had no answers as to why things deteriorated this badly under the Liberal watch, and just kept saying that he was appointed on May 13th. Come on.

But there were plenty of other reports that were also not good:

  • There are plenty of cybersecurity vulnerabilities, not the least of which is because Shared Services Canada still can’t do their jobs properly since they were established under Harper.
  • Military housing is tremendously inadequate and much of it in a state of disrepair, and housing for single members is needed most especially.
  • Military recruitment is a gong show, and they couldn’t even ask why twelve out of every thirteen applicants abandoned their application.
  • There are still barriers to ending the remaining boil water advisories on First Nations reserves, even though they’ve been at this for a decade, and half of previous AG recommendations still haven’t been implemented.

The good news is that most of the legacy media outlets actually sent reporters to do reporting on these reports rather than just relying on CP wire copy, but really, only the CRA story got attention in QP and on the evening talking head shows, which is too bad because there was plenty more to talk about. But that’s indicative of the state of media these days.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-10-21T14:08:04.164Z

Ukraine Dispatch

There was a Russian attack on Kyiv overnight. Ukraine struck a Russian chemical plant with its newly acquired Storm Shadow missiles, which was a key supplier of gun powder and rocket fuel.

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Roundup: Dollarama Trumpism back on blast

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I regret to inform you that Pierre Poilieve is back on his MAGA-lite™ bullshit, and he’s going after DEI in order to “bring back merit.” It’s Dollarama Trumpism where they think that they can harness the “good parts only” energy of authoritarian populism without the overt racism—but they’re still going to wink to that racism. And it’s been pretty relentless, whether it’s deciding to target “DEI” or “wokeness,” the recent decision to go hard after immigration—sorry, “Liberal immigration policy” *wink*— or birthright citizenship. I’m not sure who they think they’re fooling, other than maybe that segment of the party’s base that Poilievre wants to keep on-side ahead of his leadership review.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3m3bgx3sgek2d

The thing with insisting you want to focus on “merit” is that we have empirical proof that “merit” is only ever applied to straight white men who don’t have to fairly compete with women or minorities. They can’t get a fair shake because of ingrained prejudices, but if they get their positions entirely based on merit, they are dismissed as “DEI hires.” (It’s even more hilarious when women in the Conservative caucus insist that they got their positions due to merit, but any women in the Liberal Cabinet are just “DEI hires.”) All of this is entirely well-founded, but they have decided that they’d rather wink to racists and claim that they’re doing it to avoid “bloated bureaucracies” and “checkboxes” when it really just boils down to racism/misogyny/homophobia, every single time, but they insist on lying to themselves about it.

Hits harder than any legacy media outlet.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-10-15T14:37:40.489Z

Meanwhile, Poilievre is ramping up his “get out of the way” bullshit, and has his caucus not only repeat it to absurd lengths, but also try to force it into situations that don’t make any sense. For example, one Conservative MP was on Power & Politics and trying to insist that if government “got out of the way” that we would have spent the past decade building critical mineral mines and pipelines to tidewater and that would have given us leverage over Trump. And while David Cochrane pushed back on this, none of it makes any sense because you would think that American dependence on our oil/aluminium/steel/softwood lumber/electricity would already give us leverage, but that doesn’t actually matter with Trump. Nobody was in a rush to build pipelines to tidewater because the Americans were a captive market. We weren’t in a rush to build critical mineral mines because the market was being well-supplied by China, and nobody builds mines overnight. And frankly, putting aside the fact that these projects were in fact advancing, this notion that governments should just abandon all environmental regulation, property rights, or Indigenous rights and title for the sake of letting industry loose, so that they could line their own pockets while forcing the environmental and social devastation in their wake onto governments to take care of—at a time when CO2emissions are spiking because of wildfires—is frankly just incompetence and lunacy.

I mean, who cares about things like the environment, or property rights, or the rights of Indigenous people whose land these projects are on? We should just let it all burn and watch the dollars flow in (to the pockets of a few select rich people).

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-10-16T02:31:38.710Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian attacks hit power infrastructure in seven regions across Ukraine. Russian drones are getting more precise, and are increasingly targeting Ukraine’s rail infrastructure.

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Roundup: A last-minute trip sans journalists

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Prime minister Mark Carney took a last-minute trip to Egypt over the weekend to attend the Middle East peace summit, where he did things like praise the release of hostages, and commend the “leadership” of Trump in reaching this moment (which ignores a whole lot of what has happened up until this point). But a lot of things about this trip were unusual. For one, he ended up chartering a private plan because no military aircraft were available on short notice, which is odd in and of itself (and I can’t wait for the pearl-clutching when the Access to Information request is released about the costs of said charter). For another, he did not alert the media to the trip until he was taking off, and no accredited journalists accompanied him on the trip.

Statement from the president of the Parliamentary Press Gallery:

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-10-14T23:14:12.452Z

This is a very big warning sign about how Carney is treating the office, and his obligations to transparency. Perhaps more egregiously was the fact that the PMO comms team spent the long weekend emailing journalists and pointing them to links to his posts on Twitter, as though that was some kind of substitute. It’s not. Social media posts are carefully curated and present a very stage-managed view of the world, which is not a substitute for journalism. In fact, it’s usually a form of propaganda, because it delivers a carefully crafted message in a way that is intended to influence the voting public in a certain way.

To be clear, Carney is not the first prime minister who has tried to limit media access in favour of his in-house photographers and media team, and these photographers and videographers are given privileged access to both document history, and set up carefully curated narratives. And yes, the press is going to complain about it because it’s our job to present a wider view than what the PMO wants us to see, and the public expects more transparency, which has been in retreat under Carney’s leadership because he still thinks that this is like being a CEO where you don’t say much because it might affect your stock price. That’s not how you behave in the top political office of the country, and he needs to get that message.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian glide bombs hit a hospital in Kharkiv in the early morning hours of Tuesday, while attacks on the energy grid continued. A UN humanitarian convoy in southern Ukraine was also hit by Russian drones. Ukrainian authorities have ordered the evacuation of dozens of villages near the city of Kupiansk given the deteriorating security situation, while Russia claims they took control of another village in Donetsk region. President Zelenskyy says that Ukrainian troops have advanced in their counter-offensive in the Zaporizhzhia region.

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Roundup: Carney offers another capitulation on the promise of more talks

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Following a virtual Cabinet meeting Friday morning, prime minister Mark Carney summoned the media to the temporary press theatre in Ottawa, and announced that he is going to capitulate to Trump once again, dropping most of the retaliatory tariffs as a “goodwill gesture” for a trade deal that is never going to happen. He insisted that he was given assurances by Trump himself that this was going to jump-start those negotiations, for real this time. And when pressed about this being “elbows down,” Carney responded with a bunch of other nonsensical hockey analogies, becaused that’s the level of political discourse in this country.

Carney is dropping most retaliatory tariffs, because of course he is.Going to re-post my column from last weekend:

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-08-22T16:17:13.949Z

Carney just spinning, spinning, spinning about why this totally isn't a capitulation—really!—even though we're getting nothing for this."We have the best deal and we need to preserve that." "We're matching what they're doing," only it's not actually matching the counter-tariffs that remain.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-08-22T16:37:27.080Z

And we can totally believe him because he means it this time! For realsies!

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-08-22T16:40:32.869Z

Just like surrendering on the Digital Sales Tax would kickstart negotiations, right? That capitulation got us something, right?

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-08-22T16:45:34.098Z

It’s getting incredibly difficult not to feel like we’re being played here. Previous capitulations have earned us nothing, because they’re not going to, and there is no trade deal to be had. Trump is just going to keep extorting us, and forcing us to repeal more of our domestic laws he and his tech bro friends don’t like, and eventually we’ll become a vassal state unless we keep punching back. There is no goodwill to be had in making this gesture because there is no goodwill from Trump, period. But while Carney keeps insisting that he’s doing this in concert with building Canadian capacity, he’s not proving it with his actions. Austerity is going to do the opposite, and that’s what we’re getting. The only people who are applauding this (other than the Carney stans, for whom he can do no wrong) are the big business lobbyists in this country, who think we should bend the knee to get a deal, never mind that there is no deal to be had, and bending the knee is going to only turn us into a vassal state.

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lwyzxe6p3s2m

I'd have more confidence in Carney's US strategy if his domestic policies were at all up to the task of safeguarding Canadian independence. Taken together, they're bad news.A government that's cutting state capacity in a crisis isn't serious about nation building. We need more government, not less.

— Blayne Haggart (@bhaggart.bsky.social) 2025-08-22T17:39:50.048Z

Right on cue, the business lobbyists are praising Carney's capitulation strategy. #cdnpoli

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-08-22T17:59:11.201Z

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-08-22T16:38:30.903Z

Pierre Poilievre did hold his own press conference later in the afternoon, and while he did (correctly) point out that this was another capitulation, he also seems to still believe that Trump is a rational actor and would respond rationally to a negotiation, and says that everyone else is getting a better deal than we are, which is utter nonsense. And, because this is Poilievre, he made yet another pitch for his usual bullshit of obliterating environmental laws and so on, because of course he did.

Ukraine Dispatch

Trump says he might sanction Russia in another two weeks, which gives them two more weeks of unrestrained attacks, and more chance to play Trump. Meanwhile, here are attacks Ukraine has been making on Russian energy facilities.

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Roundup: Preparing for another tariff climbdown

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Prime minister Mark Carney held a (virtual) Cabinet meeting yesterday, followed by a virtual meeting with the premiers, and so far, the signs aren’t terribly encouraging. It was ostensibly about an update on trade talks with the US, given that the deadline passed and we’re not only no closer to any kind of resolution, but Trump raised the tariffs they are charging on non-New NAFTA items (which does nevertheless effectively mean we’re still one of the lowest tariff-rate countries overall), if you ignore all of the other sectoral tariffs that are having the biggest impact. And the premiers have also started to drift in their positions, whether it’s Doug Ford demanding more retaliation (even though he immediately backed down on his electricity export retaliation), or Danielle Smith and Scott Moe preferring to lick fascist boots instead.

Nevertheless, the tone coming out of Carney and the Cabinet is increasingly one where they are openly laying the groundwork for reducing or removing retaliatory tariffs or other measures, because really, appeasing Trump is clearly the way to go. Look at what pulling back on the Digital Services Tax got us. The question then becomes what happens to the increasingly large fiscal hole that eliminating these counter-tariffs will do to the balance sheet, because they booked a bunch of revenues from them, while they’re already promising deep cuts to government spending.

Just keep making concessions. That'll clearly get us a favourable deal.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-08-06T21:26:09.762Z

Meanwhile, the Conservatives have decided to go full-bore on the notion that Carney has broken his signature campaign promise because he has not only failed to reach a deal with Trump, but that tariffs have increased since then. Of course, this is premised on the completely false notion that Trump is a rational actor, but pretty much the entire Conservative caucus was tweeting variations of this very thing all day, because absolutely everything they do has to be about social media posts. Even more eye-rolling was Roman Baber lying about what the president of Mexico said about Anand and Champagne’s visit (her comments were that we don’t need a bilateral trade deal because the New NAFTA is still in effect, and even if it wasn’t, we’re both signatories to the CPTPP), because this is the state of the Conservative Party today.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russian strikes killed two people and wounded at least ten in Zaporizhzhia, while shelling killed three and injured at least four in Nikopol. Russians also hit a key gas interconnector, which Ukraine says was about trying to undermine their preparations for winter (when Russia always attacks power supplies).

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Roundup: Forgiveness over permission, C-5 edition

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With hours left on the clock before the House of Commons would vote on Bill C-5, per the terms of the Closure motion passed earlier in the week, the Speaker agreed with an NDP motion that yes, the bill was indeed abusive omnibus legislation and agreed to split it into two parts to separate it for the final vote. It was a bit late to do so, because there was no ability to only advance one half and not the other, and it wasn’t going to matter much either considering that the Conservatives were going to vote in favour of it (because they absolutely want this Henry VIII clause on the books if they should form government in the next five years). And so, the first half of the bill, on the federal trade barriers, got near-unanimous support with only Elizabeht May voting against it, and the second half on major projects—and that Henry VIII clause—had the Bloc, the NDP, Elizabeth May and Liberal Nathaniel Erskine-Smith vote against it, not that those numbers made any kind of difference.

After the bill passed, Carney called a press conference in the Foyer, and had every Indigenous MP in the caucus as his backdrop (with a few others dropping in), and he insisted that it simply wasn’t communicated effectively how much Indigenous participation would be required for these projects, and that they would respect UNDRIP, and yes they would hold consultations with rights-holders over the summer to ensure that implementation of this legislation would be done “the right way.” Oh, and he totally swears that he’s not going to put a Henry VIII clause in any other bills—really! But all of those assurances left a sour taste.

It very much seems that Carney has taken the route of asking for forgiveness rather than permission, which is a really strange way to go about building trust with those rights-holders, especially when your MPs refused to let them speak at committee or have any participation in the legislative process. And you will forgive me if I don’t believe that they won’t ever use that Henry VIII clause to bulldoze over UNDRIP obligations on a project, because they gave themselves those powers for a reason. And if they think that they got away with asking for forgiveness rather than permission worked this time, who’s to say they won’t try that again when they do use those powers? Let’s not kid ourselves.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-20T22:56:10.284Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Drone attacks from Russia in the early hours of Thursday hit apartment buildings in Kharkiv and Odesa. There was another POW swap, and again, numbers were not disclosed. President Zelenskyy says that Ukraine is developing interceptor drones to deal with the Russian drones, whose numbers have increased in the past weeks.

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Roundup: The G6-plus-one, day two

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The remainder of the G7 Summit was odd with Trump’s early departure, in part because of how much space he took up at the event, and his subsequent absence case a long shadow. A number of leaders had come specifically to meet with him on the second day, including Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and with Trump gone, it made the trip seem less worthwhile for their broader goals. There was talk that a statement about support for Ukraine was scrapped because the Americans wanted the language to be watered down to useless—but Mark Carney’s office later retracted that claim, so it’s hard to say what actually happened there. Carney did, however, pledge another $4.3 billion for Ukraine and to help bring about more sanctions on Russia and their “shadow fleet,” so that’s not nothing. As for Trump, while on his way home, he was back to threats, insisting Canada will be paying tariffs unless we become a US state, and he increased the price for participation in the “golden dome,” with a number he pulled directly out of his ass.

As for the outcomes of the summit, there was an agreement on an increased use of AI (really?!) plus a “common vision” for quantum technologies. The Rapid Response Mechanism on disinformation and threats to democracy will update its reports to include transnational repression; there was also a pledge to do more to tackle migrant smuggling. There was agreement to coordinate efforts to manage the impacts of wildfires—but nothing about tackling climate change that is causing those fires. There was also talk about “economic corridors” for critical minerals, and enforcing standardised markets in order to combat Chinese dominance in that tech space.

Regarding the other meetings on the sidelines, Carney had his meeting with Narendra Modi and did raise transnational repression during his remarks, for all the good it did. The pair agreed to re-establish proper diplomatic relations and to re-appoint new high commissioners for each country, but we’ll see if India’s next representative is also tied to repression. Carney also had a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who was supportive of the plans to reach the NATO two-percent spending target this year (right before the summit where the plan is to increase it again). As for designated protest sites, they were largely quiet on the second day. (More highlights from the day here).

https://twitter.com/supriyadwivedi/status/1935050251351495064

Ukraine Dispatch

The attack on Kyiv early Tuesday morning was even deadlier than first anticipated, with 440 drones and 32 missiles fired, killing at least 18 people and wounding 151 others; Odesa was also hit. (Photos).

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Roundup: A lost vote for the sake of point-scoring

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The opposition shenanigans manifested during one of the very first votes of the new Parliament, where the government was not able to defeat the Conservative amendment to the Address in Reply to the Speech From the Throne. Said amendment urged the government to table a spring budget, but it’s not binding, and it looks like Mark Carney and the rest of Cabinet will take it under advisement and leave it at that (because you can’t produce a budget within two weeks’ notice, and the Conservatives know that very well).

What gets me is that you have the Conservatives (and others) going “what does it say when the government loses their first vote?” when it says nothing at all. If anything, it says that in a minority parliament, the opposition parties will do everything they can to embarrass the government, just as they have in previous parliaments, and given the current configuration of parties, this is really just a continuation of the constant juvenile bullshit we’ve seen over and over again that resulted in a paralyzed House of Commons last fall. Nothing really changed, and we’re going to see more that very same thing because we have the same insistence on juvenile point-scoring from the opposition, and we have the same Liberal government that is both inept at communicating their way out of a wet paper bag, and who are tactically incompetent because they think that they will somehow come out looking sympathetic to the procedural warfare and gamesmanship when they absolutely won’t because legacy media will simply not actually call anyone’s bullshit, but just both-sides the whole thing, and the Liberals will always lose in that framing. And I suppose what it says about the government is that they haven’t learned a single gods damned lesson from their near-death experience, and Carney’s complete political inexperience isn’t doing them any favours here either.

Meanwhile, the government introduced their big omnibus border bill, and it has a lot of troubling elements, from lowering thresholds for electronic data collection by law enforcement that won’t always require a warrant, and gives Canada Post more authority to open mail they deem suspicious. It also changes particular thresholds for asylum claims, and gives the government powers to simply stop claims or immigration processes with no explanation or apparent avenues for appeal. There are some positives, such as more resources for financial crimes, but in the grand scheme of things, I’m not sure it balances the negatives. The government claims they found the right balance that respects Charter rights, but I am dubious, and I suspect that law enforcement convinced them that they need these rights-violating powers and used Trump’s threats as a justification to get what they want.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian rocket attack killed at least four and injured at least 25 in Sumy. The city of Sumy remains under threat as Russians advance in that region. Ukraine detonated explosives on the concrete piers supporting the bridge linking Russia to Crimea, forcing its closure.

https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1929871991034568954

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