Tag Archives: Danielle Smith

Roundup post: Shuffle expectations

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It’s Cabinet Shuffle Day, and the “leaks” and PMO lines are that it will be more than 50 percent new faces, though it sounds like some of the key players—Dominic LeBlanc, Chrystia Freeland, David McGuinty, Anita Anand—are staying put. CTV had two sources tell them Freeland was out before being told that no, she’s staying. It also sounds like Sean Fraser will get back in, as it was the understanding for him running again after saying he was going to retire to spend more time with his family. One also has to wonder about Nathaniel Erskine-Smith in a similar boat, so we’ll see. New faces are supposed to include Gregor Robertson and Carlos Leitao, and you can bet that Buckly Belanger from Saskatchewan will have a role, as will either of the two Alberta MPs. (More rumours and speculation from the National Post, The Canadian Press, CBC, the Star, and the Globe and Mail).

It was also confirmed that it will return to a tiered structure, with a smaller core of ministers, with other portfolios likely being given to secretaries of state (who are subordinate to ministers) rather that ministers of state (who can have their own departments like regional development portfolios or certain agencies). This is in part where the commitment to gender parity will become apparent—will there be women leading in major portfolios, or will there be a disproportionate number of women relegated to secretaries/ministers of state? Trudeau decided to make everyone ministers to ensure that they were all equal in rank and salary, and that there was less of a “pink ghetto” effect with second-tier appointments. Carney will have to work to avoid playing into that effect (which is also an example of formal versus substantive equality.

Meanwhile, Jennifer Robson has some thoughts on the probable structure of Cabinet we’ll see.

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched over 100 drones overnight after president Zelenskyy called Putin’s bluff on peace talks in Istanbul.

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Roundup: Wheedling for official party status

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The official party status debate seems to be moving ahead without any consideration of logic, or why the rule exists, or the importance of rules actually being followed. And so, Don Davies says he’s reaching out to Carney to try and get official party status, but insists that he’s not going to try and threaten quid pro quo about it. I’m going to point back to my column from earlier in the week that there is no reason they should qualify for it—or to trust the “no quid pro quo” line either, but I’m really, really not swayed by all the capital-p Pundits who think that the Liberals should give them that status just because, or because they feel bad (or perhaps grateful?) that all those NDP voters switched to Liberals to stop Poilievre and Trump (even though that’s not what the data shows in most ridings), and it lets the NDP off the hook for running a poor campaign with a leader who was past his best-before date, and for their inability to present a vision for voters to believe in. If they want to have their official party status, they need to earn it back in the next election. (A few more details on the state of the party here).

One of the other things the big-P Pundits keep bringing up is the issue of the number of staff that would be lost, and the fact that there wouldn’t be salaries for a party whip or House Leader, but again, they’re seven MPs. You don’t need a staff to wrangle those MPs, to get them onto committees and ensure that if they’re absent that they’re covered off, and so on. It’s not a consideration. Does it suck? Yes. But let’s be realistic about just what those seven MPs are going to be contributing and how much staff they need to do it. They are not actually owed anything here, and perhaps we need to be a little hard-nosed about it. You can bet that if the situation was reversed, the NDP would be ruthless about it (and they were in 2011 when they formed the official opposition and broke established courtesies and rules around seniority for offices in Centre Block and so on in their fit of triumphalism). And the Bloc remember that the NDP refused to extend official party status to them after 2015 when they had ten seats.

There were also news stories about the supposed “feelers” that Liberals have allegedly put out for any NDP floor-crossers, but in the conversations I’ve had with staffers, it has been a lot of “Erm, we don’t want them. Especially that crew.” So, while maybe someone made a few phone calls, or “feelers,” I would seriously doubt that there is an honest effort being made here, but this is merely what I’ve heard, so take that with a grain of salt.

My life reporting on #cdnpoli, basically.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-09T13:31:29.079Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians hit 8 settlements in Zaporizhzhia region 220 times during their so-called “ceasefire.” Some 40 world leaders, including Canada, are supporting the creation of a special international tribunal to prosecute Russia for their war of aggression. President Zelenskyy is hosting leaders from the “coalition of the will” today.

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Roundup: Hinting at ballot shenanigans

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A Conservative fundraising email suggests the Liberals are somehow trying to tip the scales on the election results with the upcoming judicial recounts on close election races, so that they can get a majority, and I am both unsurprised, but also shocked and appalled. Anyone in this country with a handful of functioning brain cells should recognise that casting doubt on Elections Canada and its processes is nothing short of democratic poison, because we are already at a point where people believe conspiracy theories at the drop of a hat, or are too willing to make up conspiracies to fit their priors.

One also has to ask if the Conservatives are capable of learning a single gods damned lesson from the current moment, where they have a cohort of voters who are itching to swallow MAGA lines whole, and who cannot wait to start applying Big Lie ideology to this country’s elections, and try and claim that the Liberals have somehow “stolen” the election. To couple with that, we have accusations that Poilievre lost his seat in Carleton because the Liberals had gerrymandered the riding to include more urban dwellers, which is the opposite of what happened—to say nothing of the fact that redistribution efforts are led by judicial panels, not political actors. It’s the exact opposite of what happens in the US, but when you consume so much American media, you recreate the world in their image. (I will grant that some of the demographics in the riding may have shifted over the past election cycle, but it was not what re-distribution did in the riding, but rather ongoing housing issues in this province).

Suffice to say, it’s a Problem that someone thought this kind of fundraising appeal was a good idea, and they should get spanked for it, preferably by Elections Canada. This kind of democratic poison should never be used, regardless of your partisan stripes, because undermining trust in the system when you’re being a crybaby is never, ever acceptable.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine says that Russia has violated their own “ceasefire” 734 times between midnight and midday Thursday, proving the whole thing to be a farce. Russia claims that Ukraine made two attempts to cross into Kursk region during the “ceasefire.”

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1920358258268639512

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Roundup: Sore from moving those goalposts

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I have to wonder if the Conservatives and their proxies are exhausted from shifting goal posts over the past couple of days, and whether they remembered to lift from the knees and not from their backs, because hoo boy, the commentary coming out of the Carney meeting at the Oval Office has been something to behold. The common cry is that Carney promised on the campaign trail that he would be tough with Trump, and yet in the meeting, he engaged in flattery and didn’t object to things Trump said that were objectively wrong or offensive to Canadians. “He said the relationship was over and now he’s saying this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship!” has been a common refrain. Give me a break.

Can you imagine what they would have said if Carney went to the meeting and was combative with Trump, and put himself in a position for JD Vance to start piling on and creating the conditions for another Zelenskyy moment? Those same Conservatives would have howled that Carney was endangering the relationship with our closes trading partner. And the thing about the relationship is being mischaracterised (mendaciously)—Carney said that the old relationship of deeper ties and close cooperation was over. And that is objectively true. He also said this is the start of a new relationship with the US, which is also true—we can’t carry on like the old relationship is still there, and he has to start somewhere with the new one, and he’s managed to do so in a way that has placated Trump for the time being, which is an incredibly hard thing to do given his mercurial nature, and it may not last. But he had to sit there and say things that Trump thought was flattering (but really weren’t if you actually listened), and he did correct a number of Trump’s insane rants (like saying they don’t do much business with Canada when we’re their top export destination). But “getting tough” with Trump has to be done carefully given his volatile nature, and doing performance art isn’t the way to do it. Trying to insist that Carney was somehow misrepresenting himself or the task at hand in an election need to go give their heads a shake.

Meanwhile, Pierre Poilievre says he’s going to spend the summer “listening and learning,” but well, this is someone who has spent his entire adult life confirming his priors, so I don’t expect much in the way of introspection as to the reasons the campaign failed—particularly as Andrew Scheer was on Power & Politics saying they need to make “refinements” on their strategy, which sounds an awful lot like they plan on fighting the last war rather than actually learning  a single lesson. This being said, it sounds like Poilievre has reached out to Doug Ford’s office to try and mend some fences, so maybe they learned something? Maybe? We’ll see.

Unfortunately…

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-07T13:28:07.303Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s “three-day ceasefire” went into effect this morning, but there are reports that guided bombs were still launched against Sumy in the early hours of the morning (but we all know how well Russia lives by its agreements). Ukrainian drones kept interfering with airports around Moscow for a third straight day as foreign leaders were arriving for Victory Day festivities in Red Square.

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Roundup: Greetings, Exalted One

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In a very real sense, the day was pretty anticlimactic given the build-up. Prime minister Mark Carney arrived at the White House, didn’t succumb to an intimidation handshake, and when they got to the Oval Office, Trump rambled and dissembled, and Carney got in a word or two edgewise that was both obsequious flattery, but also deep shade, saying that Trump was a “transformational” leader and got the world re-engaged in defence issues. (Yes, he has, but for reasons other than those Trump believes. When the topic of annexation came up, Carney phrased it in the language of real estate in that some things are not for sale—the White House, Buckingham Palace, and Canada—and while Trump said “never say never,” Carney kept mouthing “never.” But that was about it. There was no pile-on by JD Vance, no attempt at humiliation, though Trump gratuitously insulted both Justin Trudeau and Chrystia Freeland (who is still in Carney’s Cabinet).

https://bsky.app/profile/lsaffs.bsky.social/post/3lojcqx6ptk24

One of the things that was notable was that Trump insisted that the New NAFTA isn’t dead, which is funny since he’s stomped all over it and broken it so many times that it’s not worth the paper it’s written on, but there you have it. Carney says this is the first step of many, and he’s keeping expectations super low, talking about controlling the things we can control (which obviously excludes Trump himself). He also insists that he pushed back on the annexation talk in private, not that I’m sure it’ll have any effect. The Canadian Press fact-checks some of Trump’s nonsense here. Some more reaction quotes from the day here.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-05-06T21:22:13.862Z

Conservative caucus

The other news was that the Conservatives held a day-long caucus retreat, and they voted to once again abide by the (garbage) Reform Act provisions that claim to let them topple a leader (even though they don’t actually need the Act’s provisions to do so, and the Act merely reinforces a pattern of learned helplessness among MPs who have surrendered their power), and they decided that Andrew Scheer will be the parliamentary leader in Poilievre’s absence until he can get himself a seat. Why Scheer? Because he’s a) loyal to Poilievre, b) is in no danger of trying to keep the leadership himself as a former failed leader, and c) the party doesn’t have to worry about a Rona Ambrose-kind of leader who proves popular and sane, and whom the public would demand to be made leader permanently. Yes, that’s a sad reflection of where the party is at, as is the fact that they don’t really seem to want to learn the right lessons from their election loss. (More reaction from caucus here.) Oh, and Poilievre did finally call Bruce Fanjoy to congratulate him on winning in Carleton, so that only took a week.

*Sigh* No, the (garbage) Reform Act doesn't give MPs or caucus more powers. They have all the power they need to depose a leader if they really wanted to. The Act's provisions actually constrain MPs' powers. #PnPCBC

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-06T21:53:41.456Z

https://twitter.com/TabathaSouthey/status/1919898954335916144

Ukraine Dispatch

Russians launched drones overnight at Kyiv, killing two people. This after a missile attack on the city of Sumy killed three people. Drones from Ukraine shut down Moscow’s airports in advance of their Victory Day in WWII celebrations, and Russia’s unilateral 72-hour “ceasefire.” Ukraine’s army chief says that they have stalled Russia’s attack on Pokrovsk, which is a logistics hub in Donetsk region. Russia and Ukraine have exchanged 205 prisoners of war each.

https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1919779056641265687

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1919672711413973378

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Roundup: Holding confederation hostage

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Mid-afternoon Alberta time, premier Danielle Smith gave a live address which had all of the appearances of some kind of hostage video, where she is promising to kill confederation if her demands aren’t met. Those demands are largely outrageous in and of themselves—guaranteed pipeline access, killing all federal environmental protection laws that would affect Alberta, perverting equalisation to give them a “per capita share” (it doesn’t operate on a per capita basis), and taking any kind of export tax off the table that could be used as leverage against Trump if we needed it. It was grievance porn, and largely just riling up her base of lunatics—whom she also defended—as they gear up to force some kind of separatism referendum, even though that wouldn’t actually mean what they think it does.

Would like to hear more from the Alberta Premier about how the industrial carbon price is "crippling" in Alberta.A year ago, it was "working."www.theglobeandmail.com/business/art…

— Aaron Wherry (@aaronwherry.bsky.social) 2025-05-05T21:30:03.882Z

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lohiwnqoyk2y

The whole issue of the separatism referendum is also predicated on her being too-clever-by-half, saying she doesn’t believe in separation and believes in “sovereignty within a united Canada” (which is mostly horseshit), but she’s still going to game the rules to make it easier for the loons to force a referendum. “Oh, there’s no blood on my hands!” she insists, while she bought the knife and handed it to the loons. Politicians who use referendums as diversions or as a clever way of trying to defuse a situation have often seen that situation blow up in their faces, whether it was the capital flight from Quebec in 1980 and again in 1995, or Brexit. And like Brexit, she is willing to tell a bunch of lies to support it, Naheed Nenshi is denouncing this move and correctly pointing out that she is taking Albertans for fools, but Smith is slippery, and that’s going to be a problem the longer this is allowed to continue.

David Cameron thought he was being clever too.

— Stephanie Carvin (@stephaniecarvin.bsky.social) 2025-05-05T22:23:27.486Z

Without popular support for separation, she has seriously limited options. But Moscrop is exactly right: this is live ammo-stuff now, the way Brexit was, the way Trump as a candidate was. She is reckless, and part of a political movement of delusion and dishonesty. Very dangerous

— Bruce Arthur (@brucearthur.bsky.social) 2025-05-05T22:19:08.305Z

Meanwhile, Alberta’s acting Chief Medical Officer of Health spent yesterday morning passive-voicing the decline in vaccination rates as he called for people to step up and get measles vaccinations. If only Danielle Smith and her hand of swivel-eyed loons didn’t boost vaccine hesitancy in order to “own the Libs.” Honestly…

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched 116 drones overnight, targeting mostly Sumy and Donetsk regions. President Zelenskyy visited the Czech Republic to get commitments on more artillery shells, and pilot training.

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Roundup: The King is coming!

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Mark Carney gave his first post-election news conference yesterday, and he ensured that it was something of a news tsunami, but also that the tone and tenor of his government is vastly different from that of his predecessor. (Well, his predecessor post-2017ish. For the first couple of years, Trudeau was still trying pretty hard to hold to the things he campaigned on in a promise to be a generational change). This included some timelines for the next few weeks, and it’s a lot. So with that in mind, Carney goes to Washington on Tuesday to meet with Trump, the new Cabinet will be sworn in on the week of the 12th, Parliament will be recalled on the 26th for the election of a new Speaker, and then the 27th will be the Speech From the Throne, and it will be delivered by the King, for the first time since 1977 (and the first time a monarch has opened our parliament since 1957). In addition, he says we have the biggest reorientation of our economy to accomplish since the Second World War, and he’s going to balance the operating budget within three years with no cuts to services (indeed, the rollout of full dental care is continuing on schedule), and he’s not going to enter into any kind of formal arrangement with the NDP as there is no point in doing so. Here are five of the priorities outlined by Carney.

https://twitter.com/RoyalFamily/status/1918325678144884794

There will, of course, be a bunch of grumbling about the King arriving to deliver the Speech, but the thing we need to get out of the way is that he’s the King of Canada, not the King of the UK (or England, which hasn’t had a separate Crown since 1707) as far as we’re concerned, and so he’s not a “foreign monarch.” Canada has had a separate Crown from the UK since the Statute of Westminster in 1931, and even before that, the Crown in Canada manifested in very different ways from the UK since Princess Louise was the Chatelaine of Rideau Hall. (I have more on this in the Crown chapter of my book). The fact that we are bringing out the King to play a bigger role as our sovereignty is threatened is a reflection of just how different we are from the US, and why we will never be part of them, and because Trump idolises the royals, this becomes a thumb in his eye. We cannot forget that.

The other major development yesterday was that Conservative MP Damien Kurek has offered up his seat to Pierre Poilievre, so that he can return to the House of Commons, and surprising nobody, it’s one of the most conservative (and indeed, whitest) ridings in the country, where he got 81.8 percent of the vote in Monday’s election. While Carney said he would call the by-election at the earliest opportunity, Kurek can’t actually resign until a certain point because of rules in place, after which it’s a five-week campaign, and so that means it probably won’t happen until early July, so Poilievre will be out of the Chamber for the entire spring sitting (which is only slated to be about four weeks long). Kurek was six months away from qualifying for an MP pension, so one imagines that the party will work to compensate him in some way.

Ukraine Dispatch

A mass drone attack late Friday hit an apartment block in Kharkiv, injuring 46 people. The US State Department has approved the sale of $310 worth of training and sustainment for Ukraine’s F-16 fighter jets.

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Roundup: Danielle Smith’s weapon of mass distraction

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Alberta premier Danielle Smith continues to be in increasing hot water—and oh, look, her justice minister is related by marriage to someone at the centre of the healthcare procurement scandal—so she has decided to go full-bore into her weapon of mass distraction, which is to attack the federal government and to try and call out Mark Carney for…reasons. She’s asking Carney for a “reset” of relations with Alberta (translation: Give me everything I want), because of course she is. One of the things she announced was a new court challenge of the clean electricity regulations, because of course she is. Nothing like making the lawyers a bunch more money.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1917945085674791322

Throughout this, Smith insists she’s not stoking separatism *cough* and that these are just “hypotheticals” about the group of loons in the province itching to trigger a plebiscite by starting to gather signatures (before the bill has even passed), but the fact that she is lowering the threshold for just this eventually is a sign that she knows she’s doing it deliberately. And hey, she even says that there’s no appetite in the province for their own separate pension plan after all (because she got spanked by the reality that she couldn’t raid the majority of the CPP on the way out), so that must mean she’s serious about not stoking separatism, right? Does she think we’re all stupid and can’t see through her transparent bullshit?

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lo4edxbfjs2l

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lo4eimwtas2l

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lo4ekdqy2s2l

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lo4en275nc2l

Of course, because Scott Moe can’t help himself, he said that he’s a “true Canadian” but wouldn’t stop a public vote on separation if they triggered a plebiscite under provincial legislation. So…as premier he’s willing to also drive out investment and opportunity from companies that have no interest in dealing with this kind of nonsense? Wow, that’s some smart politicking!

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack late Thursday set houses ablaze in Zaporizhzhia and injured 14, but didn’t cause any deaths.

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Roundup: Tragedy marring the final election push

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Day thirty-six, the final day of the campaign, was marred by the tragedy at the Lapu-Lapu festival in Vancouver. Some of the campaigns, particularly the Liberals, scrambled to figure out how to respond to it, without losing their election momentum while also trying to be respectful of what took place. Others, however, were less scrupulous.

Mark Carney was Hamilton, and delayed the morning’s events in light of Vancouver, before he made a statement about it. The campaign was supposed to stop in Saskatoon, Edmonton, Calgary, Richmond and Victoria, but cancelled the rally in Calgary. The Richmond stop was going to be cancelled, but was back on in a smaller capacity, as with all of the interactions over the day. Vancouver, Carney and the premier attended a memorial to lay flowers. Carney returns to Ottawa today, where he will hold his election night event.

Pierre Poilievre was in Oakville, Ontario, for his pre-planned rally, before adding a stop at a church in Mississauga to meet with members of the Filipino community there regarding the tragedy in Vancouver. Poilievre then made stops in Pickering, Peterborough, and Keene before reaching his riding in Carleton for a final rally. There were, however, some online ads the Conservatives put out that appeared to take advantage of the tragedy and fold it into their “safe streets” slogans, which was immediately pretty ghoulish. Poilievre will be in Ottawa for election night.

Jagmeet Singh was in Penticton, BC, where he also spoke about the tragedy in Vancouver, as he had apparently left the festival minutes before it happened. He still held his events in Oliver, New Westminster, Vancouver, and Coquitlam. Singh has a campaign event in Port Moody in the morning (really?), will attend a day of mourning event in Burnaby, and hold his election night event there.

In other campaign news, the CBC made a sad attempt at doing some campaign fact-checking (that gave equal weight to outdated statistics and absolute ludicrous lies). Here is an attempt to find meaning in where the leaders’ campaigns took them around the country.

It’s Election Day! Go vote!

Ukraine Dispatch

North Korea has confirmed for the first time that they sent troops to Russia to fight against Ukrainians in the Kursk region, calling them “heroes,” and that it’s an “honour” to ally with a country like Russia.

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Roundup: Admitting to threats on the call with Trump

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Day thirty-three, and while the leaders made their final pitches, the talk remained mostly about Poilievre’s own riding, whether the polls could be believed, or the fact that he scheduled a last-minute rally on the last night of the campaign there, or the fact that people from the war room who were supposed to be sent to Peterborough were sent there to canvas instead. So there’s that.

Mark Carney was in Port Moody, BC, and gave another BC-centric campaign pitch, where he faced questions about his call with Trump in March, and whether Trump did make 51st state comments. Carney admitted he did because this is Trump we’re talking about, but the rest of the discussion was about sovereign countries making a deal, and so he left it at that. That didn’t stop the Conservatives and NDP from howling about it, the Conservatives in particular going off about how Carney is a liar (erm, you have looked in a mirror, right?) and so on. From there, Carney headed to Winnipeg for a campaign event. Carney will be in Sault Ste. Marie this morning, and then heads to Georgetown, Cambridge, and London, Ontario.

Pierre Poilievre was in Halifax at an auto dealership to proclaim his promise to scrap the electric vehicle mandate, but made up a completely bullshit claim that said mandate would impose a “$20,000 tax on gas-powered cars,” which was ludicrously untrue. The Conservative platform also claims that they would somehow get billions in revenue from scrapping said mandate, but he also promised to uphold any of the deals with manufacturers or battery plants for EVs in Canada, so it’s another case of magical growth projections with no basis in reality. From there he headed to a rally in Saskatoon. Poilievre starts the day in Saskatoon, and heads to Nanoose Bay, BC for another rally.

https://twitter.com/maxfawcett/status/1915501642373640336

https://twitter.com/MikePMoffatt/status/1915428323624206805

Jagmeet Singh was in Winnipeg to declare that he would ensure that the government didn’t put a laundry list of things on the table as bargaining chips in trade talks, most of which they never would anyway, so it’s yet another example of empty posturing. Singh then headed to Toronto. Singh starts his day in Toronto, before heading to Hamilton and London, looking to hold onto their seats in those ridings.

In other campaign news, the CBC has a look at Calgary, where the Liberals have a chance to win as many as four seats. There is also talk about how the federal Conservatives fell out with their Nova Scotia brethren, which included a threatening call from Jenni Byrne. Meanwhile, Singh tells the Star that he didn’t go for an early election (in spite of the constant threats) to hand Poilievre a majority, even if it meant they could win more seats, and insists he has no regrets. This while the NDP are back to running phantom candidates in Quebec ridings, meaning they still have not grassroots in the province.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-04-24T21:27:18.825Z

Ukraine Dispatch

The death toll from the massive attack on Kyiv has reached 12, with at least 90 injured, which also prompted Trump to react (but then said Putin’s concessions included not invading all of Ukraine, which…is not a concession). The missiles used in that strike were North Korean in origin.

https://twitter.com/ukraine_world/status/1915360570745786543

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