Tag Archives: Estimates

QP: Angry about the new tariffs

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A hot Wednesday in the Nation’s Capital, and everyone was fired up from their caucus meetings in the morning. Mark Carney was present, as were the other leaders, and Andrew Scheer actually stood up to speak today, when he didn’t earlier in the week. With that in mind, Scheer led off by denouncing the new Trump tariffs, and said that other countries got them removed while Canada had them doubled (not really true), said that Carney couldn’t get a deal, and then went on a tangent about the counter-tariffs being “secretly” removed (not true), and then demanded a budget. Carney called the tariffs, illegal, unjustified and illogical, and said they did have retaliatory tariffs on over $90 billion of U.S. goods, and they are undertaking “intensive” negotiations and are preparing reprisals if they don’t succeed. Scheer then tried to tie this to the fact that the PM won’t approve a new pipeline, and said that consensus can’t happen because BC premier David Eby is a “radical,” and tried to needle the divisions in Cabinet on energy projects, before he demanded an approval for a pipeline “today” (never mind that there is no pipeline being proposed). Carney said that everyone is agreed to build projects of national importance, and consensus includes Indigenous people, which the Conservatives don’t agree with. Scheer retorted that if photo ops and phoney rhetoric got things done, Trudeau would still be prime minister. He then pivoted to food price inflation, to which Carney patted himself on the back for their tax cut. Dominique Vien took over, and she demanded the government respect their motion to table a spring budget. Carney said that the bill before the House would reduce taxes for 22 million Canadians. Vien also raised food price inflation, and railed about the Estimates bill, to which Carney said that these estimates included things like health transfers and pensions for seniors. Richard Martel took over, and he gave the French script about counter-tariffs, and Carney repeated that the U.S. tariffs were illegal and unjustified, and that they are in negotiations with the Americans.

Yves-François Blanchet led for the Bloc, and he too was concerned about the doubled steel and aluminium tariffs. Carney said that they need to do several things at the same time—building a single economy, negotiating with the Americans, and that they were going to win, just like the Oilers. Blanchet tried again, and got the same response. Blanchet demanded support for the sector, and wanted support for a wage support bill (which would be unvoteable). Carney again said they were negotiating.

Carney says they will win with US negotiations, “Just like the Oilers.”Sorry to be That Guy, but you know the Oilers famously choke at the end, right? #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-06-04T18:30:47.920Z

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QP: The difference between budgets and estimates

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A Tuesday in June, and the prime minister was present today, as were the other leaders. Even though Andrew Scheer was present, but stayed seated, and left it up to Dan Albas to lead off, who crowed that the House voted last night to make the government table a spring budget (the motion doesn’t actually require, it merely “urges”) and went on to mischaracterise how the Budget and Estimates work, and gave the nonsense quote about how people need a budget before they spend, before demanding that the “minority” government table a budget immediately. Mark Carney praised the London Knights hockey team, and patted himself on the back for his successful meeting with the premiers. Albas listed supposed “facts,” and demanded to know when a spring budget would be tabled. Carney listed a bunch of other non sequiturs, also punctuated by “fact.” Kelly McCauley read another demand for the spring budget, and Carney noted that Canadians deserve the transfers in the Main Estimates. McCauley said those things would be in a budget, and again demanded one. Carney said that he knows the difference between the Main Estimates and the budget, unlike the members opposite, and there was an uproar. When things calmed down, Carney repeated the line and said that they know how to grow the economy without spending money. Joël Godin took over in French to read the same demand for a budget and falsely called the Estimates a “blank cheque.” (It has line items for departmental spending, for fuck sakes). Carney said in French they took note of the vote, but they stand with the premiers of Quebec to have one Canadian economy. Godin trotted out the nonsense line about people needing a budget before spending, and Carney said that they would be a budget, but in the meantime they would boost growth with a bill to build a strong economy.

Yves-François Blanchet rose for the Bloc, and wondered about the potential project to create a pipeline to Hudson Bay. Carney said that they had plenty of projects around infrastructure and green energy. Blanchet wondered whether they were trying to find markets in Europe or refine heavy crude in western Canada. Carney said they hadn’t come to any decisions, but the projects need to have environmental standards and have a big impact. Blanchet demanded that the prime minister respect Quebec’s environmental agency. Carney said that they discussed the possibility with the premier, and that they need to have commitments around environmental standards.

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Roundup: No list of projects, unsurprisingly

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In the wake of the First Ministers’ meeting in Saskatoon, there was no list of priority projects that they planned to fast-track, and a bunch of media and pundits seemed surprised by that even though it would likely have been an impossibility given the timeline. What we got instead was more of a process that they plan to use in order to designate these projects on an ongoing basis, which makes a lot more sense from a reality-based perspective. (Photo gallery here).

That didn’t stop the questions on pipelines, even though there are no actual projects being proposed by any proponent (and I have more on that in my column out later today). I do think it’s a problem that legacy media are focusing on pipelines as though they are the be-all-end-all of projects, particularly given the economics involved. They are not magical money trees. Building them will not “unlock” trillions of dollars in the oil sands, and frankly, at a time when the country is literally burning, you would think that we would have a bit more of a critical conversation around that, but no. Oh, and the fact that they are talking about “de-carbonized” oil and gas projects is…mostly fantasy. Pathways Alliance are grifters. It’s not going to capture and store carbon on an industrial scale, and not enough for you to ramp up production. This just seems completely ridiculous on its face, but Danielle Smith thinks she’s getting a win out of this, so I’m mostly just throwing up my hands.

As well, none of these “nation-building” projects involved things like, oh, funding university research networks so that we can not only take advantage of the intellectual resources in this country, but also take advantage of the ”brain drain” in the US as they dismantle their universities in an ideologically-driven crusade, and considering that the premiers were around the table, and this is their responsibility, it would have been great if they could have paid the slightest bit of attention to that, but nope. This country sometimes…

https://bsky.app/profile/emmettmacfarlane.com/post/3lqnyktksck2m

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-06-02T22:08:15.235Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia’s overnight attacks have killed one person in Kharkiv and injured several more in Chernihiv. As well, shelling in Kramatorsk killed at least five people. President Zelenskyy answered more questions on the Spiderweb operation, and confirmed that his was more than a year in planning. At the talks in Istanbul, there was only an agreement to swap dead and wounded prisoners, but little more.

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QP: Counter-tariff concern-trolling

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The PM was away in Saskatoon, meeting with the premiers, while things got underway back in Ottawa. Even though Andrew Scheer was present, he didn’t lead off Question Period, and instead left that up to Kyle Seeback, and he worried that the prime minister ran on a platform of “elbows-up,” and promised to get $20 billion in retaliatory tariffs, but most of the counter-tariffs were “secretly” cancelled (not true), before he raised the prospect of higher steel and aluminium tariffs, and demanded to know how much the counter-tariffs would generate. François-Philippe Champagne promised to fight the unjust tariffs, and that they would build the Canada of tomorrow. Seeback complained that the Liberals don’t answer questions, and accused the prime minister of lying to steel workers. Mélanie Joly responded that she was in contact with industry leaders, and that they were in “solution mode” by promising to use Canadian steel and aluminium in major projects. Raquel Dancho took over and she too concern trolled about the dollar-for-dollar tariffs and demanded to know how much had been collected. Joly congratulated Dancho for being named her critic and said that no executive order has been signed yet. Dancho said that she could assume the figure was zero, and tried again while adding in the “punishing carbon tax” as a drain on business. Champagne insisted that they were defending workers and Canadian industry. Richard Martel took over in French to again demand to know how much in counter-tariffs have been collected, and Joly spoke about meeting with aluminium industry and union leaders over the weekend. Martel took some gratuitous swipes at Carney and said he talks out of both sides of his mouth, and Champagne insisted that they did not capitulate, and that they were standing up for industry and workers.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and she claimed that the first ministers’ meeting was about forcing a “dirty oil pipeline” through Quebec. Joly pointed out the size of the Liberals’ Quebec caucus, and trotted out the lines about the standing up for industry workers. Normandin raised Carney’s meeting with oil and gas executives, and accused him of putting them first. Joly said that the job of the prime minister is to meet with everyone, and that right now they were focused on building, including high-speed rail. Mario Simard took over and repeated the same accusation, and Joly said that job creation was in the national interest. 

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QP: Parade of the newbies

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Thursday, and the novelty had worn off for journalists in the gallery, which was once again nearly empty. Mark Carney was elsewhere meeting with the mayor of Toronto, while Andrew Scheer was also absent. Stephanie Kusie led off with some nonsense concern trolling about the lack of a budget. François-Philippe Champagne loudly praised their tax cut, the GST removal on certain houses, and the removal of the consumer carbon levy in law. Kusie again repeated this same nonsense, increasingly breathy and melodramatic, and Champagne reminded her that Canadians chose the Liberals in the election. Kusie tried her first question again in French, and Champagne praised their “ambitious plan” that includes the aforementioned tax cuts. Adam Chambers took over, and he too concern trolled over the Estimates, with a focus on consultants like McKinsey. Champagne insisted that they are focusing on results, and praised the tax cuts and wondered if the Conservatives would support them. Tamara Kronis gave the same performance,and this time, Joël Lightbound took a turn to praise the tax cuts that they are delivering on “day one.” We got another go-around of the same from Carol Anstey, and Lightbound chided the Conservatives about supporting the tax cuts.

Christine Normandin led for the Bloc, and decried plans to “control the Quebec economy from Ottawa,” and wanted a commitment to respecting Quebec’s jurisdiction when the first minsters meet on Monday. Chrystia Freeland praised her meetings with her Quebec counterpart. Normandin tried again, insisting that the Quebec nation was not a barrier to trade, and Freeland agreed that they are working together with Quebec. Patrick Bonin took over, and he decried the possibility of a pipeline going through Quebec only getting a federal assessment. Julie Dabrusin praised her party’s Quebec caucus and said that they would always take Quebec’s interest to heart.

Blake Calkins heckles Freeland “Two more years and you’ll be a parl sec.” #QP

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2025-05-29T18:27:08.710Z

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Roundup: Budget complaints vs Estimates votes

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The talk about the lack of a spring budget is reaching histrionics in the House of Commons, while the Conservatives nevertheless agreed to the unanimous consent motion to conduct the study of the Estimates in a rushed manner within the House of Commons as committee of the whole instead of splitting departmental spending off to relevant committees, because it will take too long to establish said committees before these votes need to be taken. And the Estimates are the actual money votes—a budget is a political document, so if the Conservatives are that concerned about where the government plans to spend, well, that’s entirely in these Estimates. The information is entirely there for them.

At the same time, we’ve heard these very same Conservatives (and some of their mouthpieces in the media) decry that there is no reduced spending within these Estimates. And of course not—these are based on last year’s budget and statutory obligations, so there wouldn’t have been any time to book any particular savings in the four weeks since the election. Not to mention that if you want to do a proper programme review in order to achieve smart savings, those take time—up to two years, which would have a better chance of achieving lasting savings. The Conservatives were masters of achieving paper savings in their last couple of budgets when they were in power, as they were so eager to get to a faux balanced budget that they booked a tonne of savings that not only didn’t materialise, but in many cases wound up costing them more (Shared Services, Phoenix) because the act of cutting the spending before the enterprise transformation was complete wound up costing more money in the end. It would seem that nobody learned a single gods named lesson from that exercise.

Meanwhile, Conservatives and their proxies keep insisting that they would rather sit into July so that they can get a budget, and let me once again say that no, they actually do not. There is almost nothing pleasant about an Ottawa summer, and if any of those MPs think they want to be sweltering in Parliament with jacket-and-tie dress codes with a humidex of 39ºC, no, they actually do not. This is performative nonsense, and everyone needs to grow the hell up.

— Effin' Birds (@effinbirds.com) 2025-05-28T13:25:16.198Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Three people were injured in a Russian attack on Svitlovodsk yesterday. President Zelenskyy warned that Russia is massing 50,000 troops outside of Sumy region, which appears to be preparations for a summer offensive. Ukrainian drones hit several Russian weapons production facilities overnight. Russia is now proposing new peace talks in Istanbul (again)—but of course, this is one more deception. If they actually want peace, they can simply pack up and go home.

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Roundup: Healthy tensions made dramatic

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The Globe and Mail had one of those stories that sets the cat among the pigeons, where they got a number of sources to describe the tensions between PMO and the department of finance over their spending plans, and in particular that the PMO was adamant that they wanted to do that stupid GST “holiday”/rebate cheque programme, while Chrystia Freeland was trying to keep a lid on spending because she had fiscal anchors that she was trying to stick to.

As for those anchors, Freeland had her usual Tuesday economic good news press conferences yesterday, and very deliberately said that the Fiscal Update next Monday will show that the debt-to-GDP ratio fiscal anchor would be met—but steadfastly refused to mention the other two fiscal anchors she spoke of in the spring, being a cap on the size of the deficit, and a target for the deficit to be less than one percent of GDP by 2026-27. Freeland repeatedly said that the debt-to-GDP ratio was the one that mattered and that we would see on Monday that it was continuing to decline, but the interpretation of that statement is essentially that the deficit will indeed by higher than $40.1 billion, but that overall GDP grew enough that the higher number is less of an issue. We’ll have to see on Monday, but she very much appeared to be telegraphing lowered expectations.

As for those tensions, if anyone has been around Parliament Hill for any length of time, this should be normal. PMO wants to do things that are politically expedient, and that usually involves spending money, which finance tries to rein in as much as they can. This appears to be little different from that very ordinary standard operating procedure. This, of course, didn’t stop Pierre Poilievre from pouncing on this in QP as proof that the PM has “lost control” of his Cabinet (which is risible on the face of it), and every journalist was trying to get some kind of comment on it (when they weren’t trying to get a comment on Trump’s latest slights). Maybe I’ve been up here too long but “PMO wants to spend money, finance tries to say no” isn’t really news. That’s a day that ends in y. Maybe we don’t need to be so breathlessly dramatic about everything all the time?

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian missile hit a clinic in Zaporizhzhia on Tuesday, killing at least six and injuring at least 22. A missile attack also damaged an industrial facility in Taganrog the same night. President Zelenskyy says that he used his meeting with Trump in Paris to raise the issue of security guarantees.

https://twitter.com/zelenskyyua/status/1866509325197316109

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Roundup: Pants-wetting about a marching song

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News stories yesterday that the Royal Canadian Navy was, of their own initiative, exploring changing their marching song from “Heart of Oak” caused an inordinate amount of absolute pants-wetting from not only the usual suspects, but even some other otherwise rational voices who insisted this was all Justin Trudeau’s fault. When pointed out that the government had nothing to do with this, that the military brass was doing this on their own, they replied with things like “A military leadership shaped by, and following the direction of, the government. This horseshit is absolutely on the prime minister.”

I find it borderline incomprehensible that people cannot accept that the military itself has recognised that they need to change their own culture. They are in a recruitment and retention crisis because they can no longer count on straight white men from economically-depressed regions to fill their ranks in perpetuity. The country has changed, and they need to change with it—to say nothing of the fact that the former culture was rife with racism, misogyny, homophobia, sexual violence, and abuse of power in the top ranks. That kind of toxic environment wasn’t good for anyone, but it is being mythologised as “warrior culture.”

Even more to the point, this is being dismissed as “DEI” or “woke,” even from people who should know better. Trudeau is not sitting there forcing them to adopt “quotas” or so-called “DEI” or he’ll take away their lolly. But this goes back to my column last week about how a lot of these voices are pretty unconsciously privileging anything from straight white men as the “norm” and as the default “neutral,” and everything else is “woke,” and if you point out that privilege, you’re “divisive.” People need to grow the hell up and realise it’s 2024, and that means recognizing that the world has moved on from treating straight white men as the only “normal” that matters, and that includes the military.

Ukraine Dispatch

A Russian drone attack on residential buildings in Sumy killed two and injured more than twelve. Russians also claim to have overtaken the village of Novodmytrivka in the Donetsk region. There are more details about the hypersonic missile attack on Dnipro earlier in the week, to which president Zelenskyy says that Ukraine is developing new types of air defence to counter “new risks.”

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Roundup: Ignoring the abuse and the banana republic tactics

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While on the one hand, it’s nice that legacy media is once again paying attention to the fact that there is an ongoing filibuster in the House of Commons that has largely paralyzed any work for six weeks now, but it would be great if they could actually make a gods damned effort at it. Pretty much every story, and the CBC’s turn was yesterday, just types of the quotes from Karina Gould and Andrew Scheer blaming one another for the filibuster. The current fascination to this story, however, is that the Supplementary Estimates votes are coming up, and every gods damned Hill reporter is dying to use the phrase “American-style government shutdown” to go along with it that they continue to gloss over the actual issues at hand.

There is a legitimate issue about the abuse of the parliamentary privilege to demand documents, because the power is only in relation to Parliament summoning those documents for their own purposes, not to turn them over to a third party. The Speaker and the clerks who advise him should never have allowed this to be considered a matter of privilege because the powers are being abused, but this is too much of a “process story” for them, so they don’t like that angle. There is also the even more pressing issue that these powers are being abused in a manner befitting a banana republic, where the powers of the state are being weaponized against those that the legislature doesn’t like, and that should be absolutely alarming to anyone paying attention.

This kind of abuse sets precedents, and if it’s allowed to happen now, it’ll be allowed to happen the next time someone wants to abuses these powers. The most that media outlets can muster up is “The RCMP says they don’t want these documents, so why are you so insistent?” but never “Why do you think it’s appropriate to behave like this is a banana republic where you are using the state to go after your perceived enemies?” We are in a particular moment in western democracies where autocrats are threatening to take over, and Viktor Orbán in Hungary has provided them a template to dismantle the guardrails of the state to delegitimize opposition and stay in power as long as possible. This is creeping into Canada, and legacy media in this country needs to be alive to the issue and call out these kinds of tactics and behaviours, rather than just both-sidesing it and using words like “polarized” or “divisive,” because that just plays into their hands.

Ukraine Dispatch

Ukraine fired eight US-supplied longer-range missiles into Russia, two of them being intercepted, the rest hitting an ammunition supply location. President Zelenskyy addressed Ukraine’s parliament with a speech to mark the 1,000th day of the invasion.

https://twitter.com/defenceu/status/1858871441032155385

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Roundup: Who cares about the Speaker’s peril when there are talking points to parrot?

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Because this is sometimes a media criticism blog, I want to point you to a piece that was on The Canadian Press wire this weekend about a potential procedural showdown between the ongoing privilege filibuster and the coming end of the supply cycle, when the Supplementary Estimates will need to be voted on. This could have been a fascinating discussion that focuses on the pressure that will be on Speaker Fergus to get it right—which, to be frank, he did not when he made the ruling that allowed the privilege filibuster to begin, and pretty much every procedural expert I’ve spoken to has said he got the ruling wrong, and even more to the point, even a former Law Clerk of the Commons has said that this shouldn’t be a privilege issue because the powers to demand papers doesn’t extend to turning them over to a third party as is the case here.

But did the CP story touch on this? Hardly at all! There was some vaguely-worded talk about how this showdown could be unprecedented, but doesn’t actually explain the procedure, or the ruling the Speaker would have to make, and instead spends most of the piece both-sidesing the Liberal and Conservative talking points about the filibuster, because that’s what CP does best in their desire to be as scrupulously neutral as possible. Because who needs actual facts or an explanation of parliamentary procedure when you can quote talking points? This is a problem that CP refuses to address for itself, as news outlets across the country become more and more reliant on wire copy as the number of parliamentary bureaux for legacy media outlets continue to shrink.

Any of it, really.

— Dale Smith (@journodale.bsky.social) 2024-11-17T01:44:06.383Z

Ukraine Dispatch

Russia launched a massive missile and drone barrage against Ukraine overnight Saturday, which hit an apartment buildingin Sumy, killing eight. Russia launched a further 120 missiles and 90 drones overnight Sunday, targeting power systems and killing at least seven people, which will likely mean power cuts. The invasion is now 1,000 days old, and Russia is continuing to expend massively, including in lives, for small territorial gains. It also appears that President Biden has finally okayed the use of long-range weapons provided by the Americans to strike targets inside Russia. It appears that a Russian factory has been producing hundreds of decoy drones meant to overwhelm Ukraine’s defences, while certain drones will carry thermobaric warheads. (More on that investigation).

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